politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting electio

System · August 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp

Read the full story here

Benpointer · August 2018

First?

hunchman · August 2018

Second - very interesting and something I'll bear in mind for future elections. GE17 still gives me nightmares even now. I simply didn't believe that public opinion could shift so much over the course of a campaign. Lesson learnt the hard way!

hunchman · August 2018

On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.

Benpointer · August 2018

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.

How's the next ice age coming on?

Richard_Nabavi · August 2018

At the moment with the voting polls pretty much tied I would say the worry for Labour is that Corbyn is still quite some way down on the best prime minister ratings.

Not way down enough to be confident that the hard-left monster can't emerge from its slumbers, though.

HYUFD · August 2018

I think the Leader Ratings simply confirm that if Corbyn becomes PM he may not even lead the largest party but be reliant on minor parties like the SNP and the LDs

hunchman · August 2018

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?

It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.

Wulfrun_Phil · August 2018

Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.

HYUFD · August 2018

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.

As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time

Benpointer · August 2018

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?
It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.

Australia in July 2018
In brief
Daytime temperatures exceptionally warm for Australia as a whole, second-warmest July on record...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

AndyJS · August 2018

"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 16% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 12% (+1)
FDP-ALDE: 10%
Field work: 16/08/18 –20/08/18
Sample size: 3,129"

Andrew · August 2018

hunchman said:
Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.

Dem lizards out to get us again.

hunchman · August 2018

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?
It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.
Australia in July 2018
In brief
Daytime temperatures exceptionally warm for Australia as a whole, second-warmest July on record...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/record-cold-in-australia/news-story/6545967e12ba597ca4f9de97fecd788c

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-06/melbourne-shivers-through-coldest-start-to-winter-in-36-years/9840460

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-wakes-to-coldest-2018-day-records-tumble-across-queensland-20180714-p4zrgy.html

Australian Bureau of Meterology is in the lap of the crazy Australian government to promote AGW at any cost, including that of reliable energy to its citizens, just ask people in South Australia about the reliability of their energy supplies, thanks to the crazy dogma of AGW.

NickPalmer · August 2018

HYUFD said:
I think the Leader Ratings simply confirm that if Corbyn becomes PM he may not even lead the largest party but be reliant on minor parties like the SNP and the LDs

Quite possibly. That said, note that even after the slump May led Corbyn by 13 on election day, significantly more than she does now (6 IIRC). The sitting PM has an advantage in "Who would be best PM?", simply because you don't have to imagine it.

Omnium · August 2018

FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.

williamglenn · August 2018

Interesting that Yanis Varoufakis met Corbyn today and decided to tweet against a second Brexit referendum.

https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1031541103554650122?s=21

Wulfrun_Phil · August 2018

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.
As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time

Not impossible, but unlikely. More unlikely than was the possibility in 1989 of a Thatcher v Kinnock rematch.

HYUFD · August 2018

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.

The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.

Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/

kle4 · August 2018

Whatever might happen next time if Corbyn does stick it out until then his supporters will be unfazable given what did happen in terms of the best leader ratings last time. Sure it might not be the case again even if he goes in with not that great figures for an opposition leader (and messiah) going up against a divided, chaotic and very very tired government, but they'll have plenty of reason to assume things will improve later.

kle4 · August 2018

williamglenn said:
Interesting that Yanis Varoufakis met Corbyn today and decided to tweet against a second Brexit referendum.

https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1031541103554650122?s=21

He's right about the complications, but if he was influenced by Jeremy I would suspect that Jeremy cares a lot more about becoming PM than he does sorting out , before becoming PM, what happens with Brexit, hence why the assumption a GE would resolve things, which is far from clear as well. (This is not to suggest he has always sought being PM, clearly that is not the case, but having gotten this close he won't want to miss his chance)

HYUFD · August 2018

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.
As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time
Not impossible, but unlikely. More unlikely than was the possibility in 1989 of a Thatcher v Kinnock rematch.

No more likely, May is polling much better than Thatcher was in 1990

Benpointer · August 2018

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?
It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.
Australia in July 2018
In brief
Daytime temperatures exceptionally warm for Australia as a whole, second-warmest July on record...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/record-cold-in-australia/news-story/6545967e12ba597ca4f9de97fecd788c

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-06/melbourne-shivers-through-coldest-start-to-winter-in-36-years/9840460

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-wakes-to-coldest-2018-day-records-tumble-across-queensland-20180714-p4zrgy.html

Australian Bureau of Meterology is in the lap of the crazy Australian government to promote AGW at any cost, including that of reliable energy to its citizens, just ask people in South Australia about the reliability of their energy supplies, thanks to the crazy dogma of AGW.

If you look at these reports there were more high temperature records broken than low temperature records in Australia in May and June this year.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201805.pdf

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201805.pdf

Now, I appreciate you think the Australian Bureau of Meterology is "in the lap of the crazy Australian government" but are you seriously suggesting they are fiddling the records?

HYUFD · August 2018

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:
I think the Leader Ratings simply confirm that if Corbyn becomes PM he may not even lead the largest party but be reliant on minor parties like the SNP and the LDs
Quite possibly. That said, note that even after the slump May led Corbyn by 13 on election day, significantly more than she does now (6 IIRC). The sitting PM has an advantage in "Who would be best PM?", simply because you don't have to imagine it.

Incumbency helps yes

Benpointer · August 2018

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.

Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/

Which probably says that, contrary to the delusions of some on the far right, the general population does not daily feel opressed by too much government.

Indeed, most probably feel government is doing too little, rather than too much.

kle4 · August 2018

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.

Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/
Indeed, most probably feel government is doing too little, rather than too much.

Probably. I generally think people have simultaneous and contradictory feelings about such things, in the same vein as the oft lamented demands of more and better services, but not wanting to pay for it.

Benpointer · August 2018

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.

Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/
Indeed, most probably feel government is doing too little, rather than too much.
Probably. I generally think people have simultaneous and contradictory feelings about such things, in the same vein as the oft lamented demands of more and better services, but not wanting to pay for it.

Agree, though most are happy for someone else to pay for it (which is a message that Labour will continue to push with some success).

dixiedean · August 2018

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.

Missed the previous thread, but I consider myself on the libertarian wing of the Left. If that makes me a trendy lefty, then so be it. I am naturally suspicious of the desire to ban anything we don't particularly like. Drugs, immigration, trans rights, sex work and yes gambling are big philosophical dividing lines on the Left.
That does carry over to markets too. I am in favour of the government taking a view on what it should provide, such as health care and education and running it on evidence based criteria. And not putting unnecessary restrictions on private business. They will fund a decent welfare state.

HYUFD · August 2018

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.

Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/
Which probably says that, contrary to the delusions of some on the far right, the general population does not daily feel opressed by too much government.

Indeed, most probably feel government is doing too little, rather than too much.

Yes, the left feels the government is not spending and taxing the rich enough and the right feels the government is not taking a tough enough line on controlling our borders and cracking down on crime and supporting traditional values

AndyJS · August 2018

"Against Identity Politics
The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy

By Francis Fukuyama"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics

John_M · August 2018

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?
It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.
Australia in July 2018
In brief
Daytime temperatures exceptionally warm for Australia as a whole, second-warmest July on record...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/record-cold-in-australia/news-story/6545967e12ba597ca4f9de97fecd788c

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-06/melbourne-shivers-through-coldest-start-to-winter-in-36-years/9840460

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-wakes-to-coldest-2018-day-records-tumble-across-queensland-20180714-p4zrgy.html

Australian Bureau of Meterology is in the lap of the crazy Australian government to promote AGW at any cost, including that of reliable energy to its citizens, just ask people in South Australia about the reliability of their energy supplies, thanks to the crazy dogma of AGW.
If you look at these reports there were more high temperature records broken than low temperature records in Australia in May and June this year.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201805.pdf

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201805.pdf

Now, I appreciate you think the Australian Bureau of Meterology is "in the lap of the crazy Australian government" but are you seriously suggesting they are fiddling the records?

You've not run across hunchman before, have you?

rcs1000 · August 2018

hunchman said:

Benpointer said:

hunchman said:
On another note, watch out for a lot of earthquake activity around the world over the next 3-4 weeks. There was the deep 8.2 earthquake near Fiji at the weekend, which is going to put an enormous amount of pressure around the world, plus some other really deep but smaller quakes. Have a look at Dutchsinse on YouTube, who's got a really good record predicting them - I hope people near seismic zones are aware of the threat in order to avoid unnecessary loss of life.
How's the next ice age coming on?
It's coming on well. I know you don't understand the first thing about weather, but there we go. There has been much record cold weather recently in South America (many Llamas killed), Australia, South Africa and NE Canada as well as Siberia. Never makes the mainstream news, funny that - doesn't quite fit in with the AGW agenda. More importantly, its doing real damage to crop yields around the world, with the meridional jet stream patterns that occur under very low solar activity conditions like we have now. Yes Western Europe has had some very warm weather granted this summer, but governments around the world don't want any of us to know just how under pressure our food supplies are right now.

Why do you discount the ocean heat content numbers? To my mind they are by far the most compelling evidence that the earth has warmed in the past fifty years, and the measurements come out the same way, whether by point measurements of temperature or calculation of overall thermal expansion.

viewcode · August 2018

AndyJS said:
"Against Identity Politics
The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy

By Francis Fukuyama"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics

An interesting read, Andy: thank you.

rpjs · August 2018

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.

I would contend that for most purposes “left-libertarian” equals “anarcho-syndicalist” but those of both the left and right that want power structures to exploit have managed to associate anarchists with “bomb-throwing lunatics” in most people’s minds.

My problem with most libertarians is that they’d happily replace the power of the state with the power of money or at least of those best able to amass resources to themselves. That’s just replacing one tyranny with another to my mind.

PClipp · August 2018

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.
(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?
It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).
For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.
Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/

I think you are getting a bit mixed up, Mr HY, in your eagerness to big up the doomed Tory position.

If Corbyn`s Labour are described as "authoritarian", then there is no way that the Liberal Democrats can be seen as having gone to Labour - nor to the authoritarian Tories either. The clue is in the word "liberal" and the axis is liberal - authoritarian.

AndyJS · August 2018

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:
"Against Identity Politics
The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy

By Francis Fukuyama"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics
An interesting read, Andy: thank you.

Pleased you found it interesting. (I had to register in order to get the one free article a month offer). I've thought identity politics was a disaster from the first time I heard about it.

Scott_P · August 2018

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1031773539278438401

rcs1000 · August 2018

Has anyone else read Everything Trump Touches Dies : it's by a Republican strategist and is a real hoot

IanB2 · August 2018

rpjs said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.

(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?

It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).

For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
I would contend that for most purposes “left-libertarian” equals “anarcho-syndicalist” but those of both the left and right that want power structures to exploit have managed to associate anarchists with “bomb-throwing lunatics” in most people’s minds.

My problem with most libertarians is that they’d happily replace the power of the state with the power of money or at least of those best able to amass resources to themselves. That’s just replacing one tyranny with another to my mind.

Many people's libertarianism lasts only so long as they don't have any power over others. Then it is all too easy to discover that being libertarian for oneself is much easier than being so for other people.

IanB2 · August 2018

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:
I think the Leader Ratings simply confirm that if Corbyn becomes PM he may not even lead the largest party but be reliant on minor parties like the SNP and the LDs
Quite possibly. That said, note that even after the slump May led Corbyn by 13 on election day, significantly more than she does now (6 IIRC). The sitting PM has an advantage in "Who would be best PM?", simply because you don't have to imagine it.
Incumbency helps yes

Not needing to imagine it isn't always an advantage, nevertheless.

Morris_Dancer · August 2018

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting stats.

Dura_Ace · August 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1031773539278438401

I think that's the happiest I've every seen him look.

RochdalePioneers · August 2018

rcs1000 said:
Has anyone else read Everything Trump Touches Dies : it's by a Republican strategist and is a real hoot

https://www.msnbc.com/weekends-with-alex-witt/watch/why-everything-trump-touches-dies-1301831747546

Corbyn is Trump. Everything this man says about Trump is how I feel about Corbyn.

OldKingCole · August 2018

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:
"Against Identity Politics
The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy

By Francis Fukuyama"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics
An interesting read, Andy: thank you.

It’s thought-provoking, isn’t it!

TOPPING · August 2018

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1031773539278438401
I think that's the happiest I've every seen him look.

That’s actually just what I thought.

Surrounded by like minded souls, super relaxed, excited, saving the oppressed, and sticking it to the western military imperial industrial complex also.

Heaven.

DavidL · August 2018

Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.

old_labour · August 2018

No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!

RochdalePioneers · August 2018

TOPPING said:

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1031773539278438401
I think that's the happiest I've every seen him look.
That’s actually just what I thought.

Surrounded by like minded souls, super relaxed, excited, saving the oppressed, and sticking it to the western military imperial industrial complex also.

Heaven.

"And how many Zionists did you kill?"

TOPPING · August 2018

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1031773539278438401
I think that's the happiest I've every seen him look.
That’s actually just what I thought.

Surrounded by like minded souls, super relaxed, excited, saving the oppressed, and sticking it to the western military imperial industrial complex also.

Heaven.
"And how many Zionists did you kill?"

Indeed.

DavidL · August 2018

RochdalePioneers said:

rcs1000 said:
Has anyone else read Everything Trump Touches Dies : it's by a Republican strategist and is a real hoot
https://www.msnbc.com/weekends-with-alex-witt/watch/why-everything-trump-touches-dies-1301831747546

Corbyn is Trump. Everything this man says about Trump is how I feel about Corbyn.

3-4 minutes of that man was enough for me. I don't know if that is reflective of his book but the frothing/analysis ratio was not in his favour.

OldKingCole · August 2018

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!

What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?

Recidivist · August 2018

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.

I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.

Morris_Dancer · August 2018

F1: Gasly to join Red Bull next year.

He's a good driver but I think Sainz would've been better. Perhaps that was the problem...

MarqueeMark · August 2018

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.

Who in the Cabinet is anti-business?

logical_song · August 2018

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rcs1000 said:
Has anyone else read Everything Trump Touches Dies : it's by a Republican strategist and is a real hoot
https://www.msnbc.com/weekends-with-alex-witt/watch/why-everything-trump-touches-dies-1301831747546

Corbyn is Trump. Everything this man says about Trump is how I feel about Corbyn.
3-4 minutes of that man was enough for me. I don't know if that is reflective of his book but the frothing/analysis ratio was not in his favour.

It's only 6:42 minutes long.
What he said seems pretty mainstream, he's a Bush type Republican.

Recidivist · August 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.
Who in the Cabinet is anti-business?

The one I just heard on the radio.

DavidL · August 2018

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.

Why, because of Boris' outburst about certain business lobbies and their remainer agenda? What other evidence is there of this supposed anti-business approach? Maybe cutting CT to 20%, or the modification of the rating review? Or is it just because the government is committed to delivering the result of the referendum and this is supposedly anti business?

eek · August 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: Gasly to join Red Bull next year.

He's a good driver but I think Sainz would've been better. Perhaps that was the problem...

Yep both that and the fact Max and Sainz don't get on as was shown when both where at Toro Rossa

IanB2 · August 2018

Bank of England figures show consumer borrowing reached £213bn in June, rising much faster than workers’ pay.

DavidL · August 2018

IanB2 said:
Bank of England figures show consumer borrowing reached £213bn in June, rising much faster than workers’ pay.

Hence the very slow and erratic progress in reducing the trade deficit despite the fall in Sterling. We just don't seem to learn.

old_labour · August 2018

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?

Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259

TheScreamingEagles · August 2018

Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21

RochdalePioneers · August 2018

eek said:

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: Gasly to join Red Bull next year.

He's a good driver but I think Sainz would've been better. Perhaps that was the problem...
Yep both that and the fact Max and Sainz don't get on as was shown when both where at Toro Rossa

Gasly is the obvious bum to fill the seat. Red Bull have a clear development programme for drivers, if they think they are good enough to step into a vacant seat thats what they do. Remember that Mad Max Verstappen wasn't (and still isn't) the finished article when they finally lost patience with Kvyat.

MarqueeMark · August 2018

Recidivist said:

MarqueeMark said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.
Who in the Cabinet is anti-business?

The one I just heard on the radio.

That's nice and specific!

old_labour · August 2018

Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox

old_labour · August 2018

old_labour said:
Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox

We export $100 billion less than France each year and $60 billion less than Italy, according to Wiki.

DavidL · August 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21

I think 2017 was an extreme case where there was very little apparently happening in the voter intention figures and this absolutely huge shift in the best leader numbers showing enthusiasm for May dying very fast. In such circumstances the leadership numbers certainly have something to tell us.

Whether they tell us anything specific in a more normal case is less clear. The most likely effect is that they reflect voter enthusiasm and lead to differential turnout. So in the cases of both Cameron in 2015 and Major in 1992 Tory supporters were more enthused about voting than their opposition either because they liked their leader or were determined to stop his opponent.

IanB2 · August 2018

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
I think 2017 was an extreme case where there was very little apparently happening in the voter intention figures and this absolutely huge shift in the best leader numbers showing enthusiasm for May dying very fast. In such circumstances the leadership numbers certainly have something to tell us.

Whether they tell us anything specific in a more normal case is less clear. The most likely effect is that they reflect voter enthusiasm and lead to differential turnout. So in the cases of both Cameron in 2015 and Major in 1992 Tory supporters were more enthused about voting than their opposition either because they liked their leader or were determined to stop his opponent.

It was an unusual election since it was called for a reason that half the electorate (and probably more than half of regular voters) didn't support.

NickPalmer · August 2018

dixiedean said:

Missed the previous thread, but I consider myself on the libertarian wing of the Left. If that makes me a trendy lefty, then so be it. I am naturally suspicious of the desire to ban anything we don't particularly like. Drugs, immigration, trans rights, sex work and yes gambling are big philosophical dividing lines on the Left.
That does carry over to markets too. I am in favour of the government taking a view on what it should provide, such as health care and education and running it on evidence based criteria. And not putting unnecessary restrictions on private business. They will fund a decent welfare state.

I have a piece that's vaguely relevant to this discussion being posted as a PB header later today.

Morris_Dancer · August 2018

Mr. eek, I'd forgotten that.

Anyway, that's most of the big driver decisions taken now. Still uncertain who'll drive alongside Sainz.

2019 will be the first time since I think 1994 that McLaren doesn't have a race-winning driver (unless Sainz's team mate is one). According to Twitter, anyway.

DavidL · August 2018

old_labour said:

old_labour said:
Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox
We export $100 billion less than France each year and $60 billion less than Italy, according to Wiki.

The man is a complete arse and an embarrassment but increasing our exports by another £120bn is indeed what is required to eliminate our trade deficit given that some of these exports will in turn suck in more imports of semi manufactured goods. It is an essential task for our long term standard of living. I just wish government efforts to help in the delivery of such a task was in the hands of someone competent.

IanB2 · August 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.
Who in the Cabinet is anti-business?

The test is what weight are given to the interests of business when they come up against other political priorities.

DavidL · August 2018

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
I think 2017 was an extreme case where there was very little apparently happening in the voter intention figures and this absolutely huge shift in the best leader numbers showing enthusiasm for May dying very fast. In such circumstances the leadership numbers certainly have something to tell us.

Whether they tell us anything specific in a more normal case is less clear. The most likely effect is that they reflect voter enthusiasm and lead to differential turnout. So in the cases of both Cameron in 2015 and Major in 1992 Tory supporters were more enthused about voting than their opposition either because they liked their leader or were determined to stop his opponent.
It was an unusual election since it was called for a reason that half the electorate (and probably more than half of regular voters) didn't support.

That's very true. I loved the story that May told the 1922 Committee that she was going on another walking holiday and received shouts of "no" in reply. What was she thinking?

MarqueeMark · August 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21

May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.

TOPPING · August 2018

DavidL said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:
Corbyn's latest, his long time secretary (since 1994) wrote a pamphlet about reading the Jewish press to see who not to vote for: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7059820/jeremy-corbyn-aide-oust-pro-israel-mp-guide/

The purpose of this was apparently to reduce the power of the Israeli lobby in Parliament. And as a means of reaching out to both sides in search of peace, natch.
I am more worried about the Tories turning anti-business.
Why, because of Boris' outburst about certain business lobbies and their remainer agenda?p

How very Corbyn of you David.

Businesses don't have a Remainer agenda. They have a shareholder value increasing, efficiency promoting, maximising return on investment agenda.

You Leavers are letting Brexit overwhelm your otherwise sound judgement.

ydoethur · August 2018

DavidL said:

old_labour said:

old_labour said:
Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox
We export $100 billion less than France each year and $60 billion less than Italy, according to Wiki.
The man is a complete arse and an embarrassment but increasing our exports by another £120bn is indeed what is required to eliminate our trade deficit given that some of these exports will in turn suck in more imports of semi manufactured goods. It is an essential task for our long term standard of living. I just wish government efforts to help in the delivery of such a task was in the hands of someone competent.

A complete arse?

To be complete humans have to have a brain.

May I ask what evidence you have for the existence of Liam Fox's cortex?

TOPPING · August 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21

Shows that when people pay attention they want to be entertained and engaged.

Morris_Dancer · August 2018

Mr. Mark, I agree May is terrible at campaigning but she may yet remain (ahem).

If she and the anti-Boris faction fear he'd win an election, would that give her the support to continue, if she wanted to?

RochdalePioneers · August 2018

Just voted in the NEC elections. Wazzocks will probably win (including that utter tool Willsman) but what the hell, got to try and stop them.

ydoethur · August 2018

RochdalePioneers said:
Just voted in the NEC elections. Wazzocks will probably win (including that utter tool Willsman) but what the hell, got to try and stop them.

Mr Pioneers, objection.

That post is grossly unfair to wazzocks.

HYUFD · August 2018

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.

May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP

HYUFD · August 2018

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:
FPT, IanB2 wrote:

Left-right conflates a view of economics (state control v free markets) with other dimensions such as authoritarian-libertarian or collective-individual. Most serious analysis takes place over two dimensions, but there are varying models as to what the two dimensions should be. Economically left/right and authoritarian/libertarian is perhaps the most common 2D plot, putting communism and fascism as the ultimate authoritarian parties top left and top right. Identifying truly libertarian parties is the difficult bit - the LibDems would be closest to libertarian centre; Labour is heading authoritarian left, the Tories arguably mid-scale right. UKIP might once have been a libertarian right party (as under Sked) but its manifesto can't really be described as libertarian. Libertarian left doesn't really seem to exist.
(there were clearly other posts, but the above is worth requoting)

-----

I find it odd that the 'libertarian left' hasn't been a force - that's pretty much 'trendy lefty' after all. I imagine Corbyn is not so far from that?
It's interesting that the lines are traditionally drawn r/l on the basis of market freedom. I guess if you set out to control the markets then other things are easy game. However that rather supports my initial contention (FPT).
For what it's worth I'm a 'small government'-libertarian, or at least I think I am.
The only voters who gave Libertarianism a net positive rating in that Opinium ideologies survey recently were LDs and Plaid voters, confirming all the sandal wearers have gone to Corbyn Labour.
Labour, Tory, SNP, Green and UKIP voters all gave Libertarianism a net negative rating
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2-2/
I think you are getting a bit mixed up, Mr HY, in your eagerness to big up the doomed Tory position.

If Corbyn`s Labour are described as "authoritarian", then there is no way that the Liberal Democrats can be seen as having gone to Labour - nor to the authoritarian Tories either. The clue is in the word "liberal" and the axis is liberal - authoritarian.

Except most of the sandal wearing Corbynite ex LDs were never liberals anyway but authoritarians, at least in the economic sphere, peaking under Blair when the LDs were seen as the socialist, anti Iraq War alternative to New Labour and now firmly back in the Labour fold under Corbyn

RochdalePioneers · August 2018

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.
May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP

Its first past the post. National vote tallies / share are an irrelevance. Its seats that count. And she lost your majority. You're doing the same nonsense the Kali Ma Corbynites do - "don't look at what happened, look at this irrelevant stat!"

logical_song · August 2018

Interestingly, there's a more solid link between Joe McCarthy, of McCarthyism 'fame', and Donald Trump than one might expect.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/08/19/trump-mcarthyism-joe-mccarthy-219373

AlastairMeeks · August 2018

old_labour said:
Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox

Right now I’d be happy if I were confident that Leavers could fart and chew gum at the same time.

HYUFD · August 2018

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.
May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP
Its first past the post. National vote tallies / share are an irrelevance. Its seats that count. And she lost your majority. You're doing the same nonsense the Kali Ma Corbynites do - "don't look at what happened, look at this irrelevant stat!"

Even on seats May still got the second highest number of Tory MPs elected after 2015 for the last quarter of a century

OldKingCole · August 2018

old_labour said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?
Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259

Thanks for that; a damning critique of the policies and, worse, procedures of the party during the coalition.
I always thought that the LD’s should have left to Coalition after about two years, especially as the Nasty Party tendency in the Tories became ever more evident.

DavidL · August 2018

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

old_labour said:

old_labour said:
Britain will become a '21st century exporting superpower' after Brexit, pledges Trade Secretary Liam Fox
We export $100 billion less than France each year and $60 billion less than Italy, according to Wiki.
The man is a complete arse and an embarrassment but increasing our exports by another £120bn is indeed what is required to eliminate our trade deficit given that some of these exports will in turn suck in more imports of semi manufactured goods. It is an essential task for our long term standard of living. I just wish government efforts to help in the delivery of such a task was in the hands of someone competent.
A complete arse?

To be complete humans have to have a brain.

May I ask what evidence you have for the existence of Liam Fox's cortex?

Well he got into medical school and qualified as a GP. That probably puts his intelligence in the top 10% at a minimum, probably higher. But he hides it extremely well.

kle4 · August 2018

I see the Australian pm survived a challenge to his leadership. It's been at least a few years since the last one but probably not so much until the next one given how easy it is there- ,he himself came to power by doing so I believe.

DavidL · August 2018

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?
Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259
Thanks for that; a damning critique of the policies and, worse, procedures of the party during the coalition.
I always thought that the LD’s should have left to Coalition after about two years, especially as the Nasty Party tendency in the Tories became ever more evident.

They agreed not to under the Coalition agreement and kept their promise. Look how far that got them.

kle4 · August 2018

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?
Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259
Thanks for that; a damning critique of the policies and, worse, procedures of the party during the coalition.
I always thought that the LD’s should have left to Coalition after about two years, especially as the Nasty Party tendency in the Tories became ever more evident.
They agreed not to under the Coalition agreement and kept their promise. Look how far that got them.

History may be kinder to them than the voters were.

HYUFD · August 2018

kle4 said:
I see the Australian pm survived a challenge to his leadership. It's been at least a few years since the last one but probably not so much until the next one given how easy it is there- ,he himself came to power by doing so I believe.

Yes PM Malcom Turnbull survived a Liberal leadership spill 48 votes to 35 for his right wing opponent Peter Dutton as concern over his energy emissions bill and the rising One Nation vote and Labor poll lead grow.

You are right that Turnbull toppled Abbott after Abbott earlier toppled Turnbull. The same pattern as the ALP where Gillard toppled Rudd then Rudd retoppled Gillard

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-21/politics-live-malcolm-turnbull-sees-off-peter-dutton-challenge/10146280

Wulfrun_Phil · August 2018

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.
As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time
Not impossible, but unlikely. More unlikely than was the possibility in 1989 of a Thatcher v Kinnock rematch.
No more likely, May is polling much better than Thatcher was in 1990

The difference is that it is pretty obvious that there will be a serious leadership challenge to May in the relatively near future, but probably next year rather than this. By contrast, in 1989 (i.e. a year before Hesletine kicked things off in 1990), Thatcher personally still looked pretty impregnable within the Tory Party despite the preparations for the poll tax, so it did seem unlikely that she would not be leading the Tories in 1991/92.

Anazina · August 2018

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.
May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP
Its first past the post. National vote tallies / share are an irrelevance. Its seats that count. And she lost your majority. You're doing the same nonsense the Kali Ma Corbynites do - "don't look at what happened, look at this irrelevant stat!"
Even on seats May still got the second highest number of Tory MPs elected after 2015 for the last quarter of a century

That one is a keeper. The ‘second highest’ for a ‘quarter of a century’. Absolutely brilliant work.

HYUFD · August 2018

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.
May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP
Its first past the post. National vote tallies / share are an irrelevance. Its seats that count. And she lost your majority. You're doing the same nonsense the Kali Ma Corbynites do - "don't look at what happened, look at this irrelevant stat!"
Even on seats May still got the second highest number of Tory MPs elected after 2015 for the last quarter of a century
That one is a keeper. The ‘second highest’ for a ‘quarter of a century’. Absolutely brilliant work.

And true

HYUFD · August 2018

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.
As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time
Not impossible, but unlikely. More unlikely than was the possibility in 1989 of a Thatcher v Kinnock rematch.
No more likely, May is polling much better than Thatcher was in 1990
The difference is that it is pretty obvious that there will be a serious leadership challenge to May in the relatively near future, but probably next year rather than this. By contrast, in 1989 (i.e. a year before Hesletine kicked things off in 1990), Thatcher personally still looked pretty impregnable within the Tory Party despite the preparations for the poll tax, so it did seem unlikely that she would not be leading the Tories in 1991/92.

Yet Heseltine and Major polled better than Thatcher by 1990

Anazina · August 2018

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Also from that final weekend.

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871432155330744320?s=21
May had a truly horrible camapaign. From calling an election she said she wouldn't, through approving a suicidal Manifesto and to the debates no-show. Just awful.

That chart is the reason that May will never, ever be allowed by Tory MPs to go into another election as PM.

She is working her notice.
May still got a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Thatcher and no Tory polls better than her bar Boris and Davidson, the latter is distrusted by many MPs and the latter is not even an MP
Its first past the post. National vote tallies / share are an irrelevance. Its seats that count. And she lost your majority. You're doing the same nonsense the Kali Ma Corbynites do - "don't look at what happened, look at this irrelevant stat!"
Even on seats May still got the second highest number of Tory MPs elected after 2015 for the last quarter of a century
That one is a keeper. The ‘second highest’ for a ‘quarter of a century’. Absolutely brilliant work.
And true

A stunning effort.

MikeSmithson · August 2018

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the present state of the Conservatives, is a ratings match up of current leaders relevant to predicting a future GE? May v Corbyn is not particularly relevant - about as relevant a predictor of the next GE as Thatcher v Kinnock was to that in 1992.
As long as Boris is the main alternative to May not impossible it could be a May v Corbyn rematch next time
Not impossible, but unlikely. More unlikely than was the possibility in 1989 of a Thatcher v Kinnock rematch.
No more likely, May is polling much better than Thatcher was in 1990
The difference is that it is pretty obvious that there will be a serious leadership challenge to May in the relatively near future, but probably next year rather than this. By contrast, in 1989 (i.e. a year before Hesletine kicked things off in 1990), Thatcher personally still looked pretty impregnable within the Tory Party despite the preparations for the poll tax, so it did seem unlikely that she would not be leading the Tories in 1991/92.

How is that challenge going to happen unless there's an attempt to oust TMay? She wants to stay.

Recidivist · August 2018

MarqueeMark · August 2018

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?
Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259
Thanks for that; a damning critique of the policies and, worse, procedures of the party during the coalition.
I always thought that the LD’s should have left to Coalition after about two years, especially as the Nasty Party tendency in the Tories became ever more evident.
They agreed not to under the Coalition agreement and kept their promise. Look how far that got them.

Cameron agreed not to open up the Europe debate under the Coalition agreement and kept his promise. Look how far that got him....

Recidivist · August 2018

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:

OldKingCole said:

old_labour said:
No mention of Vince Cable in the PM ratings. Sad!
What were Nick Clegg’s ‘satisfaction ratings’ in the run up to the 2015 election?
Interesting article here.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259
Thanks for that; a damning critique of the policies and, worse, procedures of the party during the coalition.
I always thought that the LD’s should have left to Coalition after about two years, especially as the Nasty Party tendency in the Tories became ever more evident.
They agreed not to under the Coalition agreement and kept their promise. Look how far that got them.
History may be kinder to them than the voters were.

History will know what came next.

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