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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Almost certainly not first.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Nope - so I'll have to be second as well.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    It's a full house for Team Stodge.
  • The senior Labour politician and former deputy leader Roy Hattersley has written to Jeremy Corbyn asking him to intervene to stop one of his most loyal supporters campaigning for the deselection of centrist MPs, saying such tactics risked leading to a repeat of the party split of the 1980s.
  • What happened to 2021?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?

    If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).

    Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?

    If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).

    Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).

    I suppose what you are saying .... and I agree.... is that if Corbyn were to fall under a bus the situation might well change considerably.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party would of course change things dramatically
    Recipe for a new centrist party:

    - Take one Conservative party
    - Extract the ERG and discard
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yep, it would split the Lib Dem vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?

    If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).

    Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).

    If Theresa May were to have a bad an election campaign as she did in 2017, then maybe 100 Tory MPs lose their seats.

    They just aren't prepared to take that risk.

    She's working her notice.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party would of course change things dramatically
    Recipe for a new centrist party:

    - Take one Conservative party
    - Extract the ERG and discard
    There are not enough Tory diehard Remainers and pro single market supporters to create one, it would have to combine them plus the LDs plus Blairites in Labour like Umunna
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yep, it would split the Lib Dem vote.
    It would likely unite with the Lib Dems as the SDP did with the Liberals in 1981
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I guess a key question is what Theresa May might think she needs to do after next March. A sense of duty can lead you in more than one direction.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Two new polls from Sweden

    Sifo - Socalists widen lead over SD by 1.2 pp to 7.7 points
    Inizio - SD close gap by 0.5 pp to 5.3 points

    SD out from 2.2 to 2.4 on the markets (I think 3 is fair value)
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    FPT "Baht 'at, sir. Meaning "without headgear," of course."

    Or if in Bangkok, "Baht at?" means "My good man, where is the nearest Bureau de Change?"

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Two new polls from Sweden

    Sifo - Socalists widen lead over SD by 1.2 pp to 7.7 points
    Inizio - SD close gap by 0.5 pp to 5.3 points

    SD out from 2.2 to 2.4 on the markets (I think 3 is fair value)

    The most likely outcome on current polls is the SD overtake the centre right Moderates to become the biggest party on the right but the Social Democrats still come first

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
    A few Momentum inspired deselections could focus their minds though

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?

    If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).

    Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).

    If Theresa May were to have a bad an election campaign as she did in 2017, then maybe 100 Tory MPs lose their seats.

    They just aren't prepared to take that risk.

    She's working her notice.

    May got the highest Tory voteshare since 1983, as Australia has shown recently ousting a PM can even produce a negative bounce not always a positive one
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    HYUFD said:

    Two new polls from Sweden

    Sifo - Socalists widen lead over SD by 1.2 pp to 7.7 points
    Inizio - SD close gap by 0.5 pp to 5.3 points

    SD out from 2.2 to 2.4 on the markets (I think 3 is fair value)

    The most likely outcome on current polls is the SD overtake the centre right Moderates to become the biggest party on the right but the Social Democrats still come first

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
    The most likely outcome is that Sweden is left ostensibly ungovernable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Two new polls from Sweden

    Sifo - Socalists widen lead over SD by 1.2 pp to 7.7 points
    Inizio - SD close gap by 0.5 pp to 5.3 points

    SD out from 2.2 to 2.4 on the markets (I think 3 is fair value)

    The most likely outcome on current polls is the SD overtake the centre right Moderates to become the biggest party on the right but the Social Democrats still come first

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
    The most likely outcome is that Sweden is left ostensibly ungovernable.
    Or a German style Social Democrats and Moderates Grand Coalition with the Swedish Democrats becoming the main opposition like the AfD in Germany if the Social Democrats and their allies do not have enough support to lead another minority government
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    I guess a key question is what Theresa May might think she needs to do after next March. A sense of duty can lead you in more than one direction.

    Given that she is the figure with the most agency in the UK over what happens with Brexit, her own motivations and views get remarkably little analysis. Her parliamentary career began during the nadir of the Conservative party's Eurosceptic-driven irrelevance and I suspect leaving the party in a better state than she found it is high on the list of things she wants to achieve.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Okay - I'll talk to myself. The circumstances of May's survival will influence her departure. As long as she isn't palpably a liability for the Conservatives and as long as no one else is clearly a greater asset why remove her?

    If the events of 29/3/19 do turn out to lead into an awkward period for the country, I'm sure that will be reflected in her ratings to some extent but she is so strongly helped by the presence of Corbyn who polarises opinion so much he bolsters her (and she indirectly supports him).

    Indeed, one could almost argue May and Corbyn enjoy a symbiotic relationship (no giggling in the cheap seats).

    I suppose what you are saying .... and I agree.... is that if Corbyn were to fall under a bus the situation might well change considerably.
    I dont think there is much doubt about that depending on his successor
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
    A few Momentum inspired deselections could focus their minds though

    Those deselections didn't happen over the Syria votes or any of the anti-Brexit rebellions, where the despised Blairites put themselves right in the firing line. Frank Field and Kate Hoey attracted some action over, er, voting in line with the Labour 2017 manifesto but even that seems to have fizzled out.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018
    .

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yep, it would split the Lib Dem vote.
    You forget they won't have the negative connotations of the Lib Dems (coalition and tuition fees) that is worth at least one extra seat in Parliament. A mere 300 odd more and they will be running the country..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
    A few Momentum inspired deselections could focus their minds though

    Those deselections didn't happen over the Syria votes or any of the anti-Brexit rebellions, where the despised Blairites put themselves right in the firing line. Frank Field and Kate Hoey attracted some action over, er, voting in line with the Labour 2017 manifesto but even that seems to have fizzled out.
    We will see what Chris Williamson's tour of Labour seats produces


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7041808/corbyn-ally-mps-kicked-out-labour/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited August 2018
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?
  • HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party would of course change things dramatically
    Recipe for a new centrist party:

    - Take one Conservative party
    - Extract the ERG and discard
    I would agree with that
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
    A few Momentum inspired deselections could focus their minds though

    Those deselections didn't happen over the Syria votes or any of the anti-Brexit rebellions, where the despised Blairites put themselves right in the firing line. Frank Field and Kate Hoey attracted some action over, er, voting in line with the Labour 2017 manifesto but even that seems to have fizzled out.
    We will see what Chris Williamson's tour of Labour seats produces


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7041808/corbyn-ally-mps-kicked-out-labour/
    We will indeed. I don't mean to dismiss the idea of a Labour split altogether - it wouldn't be the strangest thing to happen in recent British politics!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party would of course change things dramatically
    Recipe for a new centrist party:

    - Take one Conservative party
    - Extract the ERG and discard
    There are not enough Tory diehard Remainers and pro single market supporters to create one, it would have to combine them plus the LDs plus Blairites in Labour like Umunna
    That depends on how things go. If an iceberg hoves into view they won't have to be "diehard" to run for the lifeboats.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Essexit said:


    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.

    I doubt it. A former Labour leader once spoke of having to "fight, fight and fight again" and that message resonates down the years.

    Second, for many in Labour, the consequence of the 1981 schism was a decade and a half of damaging Conservative Government. It's no surprise many on the Right talk up the possibility of schism because it's so electorally attractive for the Conservatives.

    38-38-10 produces a hung Parliament and makes a non-Conservative Government possible.

    38-28-20 produces a landslide for the Conservatives.

    As HYUFD has often stated, Corbyn's success in coalescing the anti-Conservative vote to Labour in 2017 meant May's increased vote share of 42% didn't achieve the outcome similar vote shares did for Thatcher and Major.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I guess a key question is what Theresa May might think she needs to do after next March. A sense of duty can lead you in more than one direction.

    Given that she is the figure with the most agency in the UK over what happens with Brexit, her own motivations and views get remarkably little analysis. Her parliamentary career began during the nadir of the Conservative party's Eurosceptic-driven irrelevance and I suspect leaving the party in a better state than she found it is high on the list of things she wants to achieve.
    She strikes me as very much a party woman and reasonably self-aware. She knows she messed up big time last year, she’s in her 60s and has a chronic health problem. I expect she will be looking to pass the baton on to someone better placed to lead the Conservative party beyond the next election. Next year or the year after are the obvious times to do so.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yep, it would split the Lib Dem vote.
    Impossible. A torn ballot paper doesn't count so the Lib Dem vote would just disappear altogether.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
  • Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    It follows the Council of Ministers meeting in September specifically to discuss Brexit with TM.

    The result of that could be very interesting for everyone concerned
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    I know it is not British but one wonders if we will see some sort of military intervention at some point? Civil unrest could make curfews necessary. Even in Germany and Sweden we are seeing breakdowns in law and order.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    stodge said:

    Essexit said:


    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.

    I doubt it. A former Labour leader once spoke of having to "fight, fight and fight again" and that message resonates down the years.

    Second, for many in Labour, the consequence of the 1981 schism was a decade and a half of damaging Conservative Government. It's no surprise many on the Right talk up the possibility of schism because it's so electorally attractive for the Conservatives.

    38-38-10 produces a hung Parliament and makes a non-Conservative Government possible.

    38-28-20 produces a landslide for the Conservatives.

    As HYUFD has often stated, Corbyn's success in coalescing the anti-Conservative vote to Labour in 2017 meant May's increased vote share of 42% didn't achieve the outcome similar vote shares did for Thatcher and Major.

    What would really help a new centrist party would be a new populist pro hard Brexit party succeeding UKIP and splitting the vote on the right if May does succeed in getting a Deal confirmed on largely Chequers Deal terms and remains Tory leader and PM.

    After all Macron and En Marche won in France in part as the Front National overtook Les Republicains on the right, at least at the presidential election, while squeezing the Socialists vote hard and also beating Melenchon's Party
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2018

    I guess a key question is what Theresa May might think she needs to do after next March. A sense of duty can lead you in more than one direction.

    Given that she is the figure with the most agency in the UK over what happens with Brexit, her own motivations and views get remarkably little analysis. Her parliamentary career began during the nadir of the Conservative party's Eurosceptic-driven irrelevance and I suspect leaving the party in a better state than she found it is high on the list of things she wants to achieve.
    She strikes me as very much a party woman and reasonably self-aware. She knows she messed up big time last year, she’s in her 60s and has a chronic health problem. I expect she will be looking to pass the baton on to someone better placed to lead the Conservative party beyond the next election. Next year or the year after are the obvious times to do so.
    Yes, that's my assessment too. The other point to note is that if she makes it clear she will leave of her own accord, she'll be able to leave with honour, and to an extent influence how things develop. That will be particularly be true if she manages to bring off Brexit without total disaster (which might be a big 'if', of course).
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    It follows the Council of Ministers meeting in September specifically to discuss Brexit with TM.

    The result of that could be very interesting for everyone concerned
    Indeed. Businesses based in the UK will soon need to start announcing their Brexit plans, especially if No Deal is on the cards. They cannot wait much longer to get things in place
  • Fenman said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    I know it is not British but one wonders if we will see some sort of military intervention at some point? Civil unrest could make curfews necessary. Even in Germany and Sweden we are seeing breakdowns in law and order.
    Seriously hope not but the risk would be if a second vote overturned the referendum and some on the alt right stirred civil unrest. I believe a second vote has the potential for a disastrous outcome and why I believe we must leave and those pushing to remain would then have to campaign proprrly to re-join
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Fenman said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    I know it is not British but one wonders if we will see some sort of military intervention at some point? Civil unrest could make curfews necessary. Even in Germany and Sweden we are seeing breakdowns in law and order.
    Seriously hope not but the risk would be if a second vote overturned the referendum and some on the alt right stirred civil unrest. I believe a second vote has the potential for a disastrous outcome and why I believe we must leave and those pushing to remain would then have to campaign proprrly to re-join
    I doubt there would be much civil unrest, that is more something common on the far left, more likely there would be a new populist hard Brexit and anti immigration party formed out of the ashes of UKIP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    It follows the Council of Ministers meeting in September specifically to discuss Brexit with TM.

    The result of that could be very interesting for everyone concerned
    Indeed. Businesses based in the UK will soon need to start announcing their Brexit plans, especially if No Deal is on the cards. They cannot wait much longer to get things in place
    It seems to me that the UK needs to face up to the reality of No Deal before we will be able to move forwards with a sensible decision between either an orderly Brexit, or abandoning Brexit altogether.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Fenman said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    I know it is not British but one wonders if we will see some sort of military intervention at some point? Civil unrest could make curfews necessary. Even in Germany and Sweden we are seeing breakdowns in law and order.
    Seriously hope not but the risk would be if a second vote overturned the referendum and some on the alt right stirred civil unrest. I believe a second vote has the potential for a disastrous outcome and why I believe we must leave and those pushing to remain would then have to campaign proprrly to re-join
    I think some on the alt-right are going to stir regardless of how Brexit is done because unless it is a complete catastrophe we will still have immigration and some of them will look and/or sound Muslim. It could be potentially used as an excuse to cause more trouble... but I wonder where exactly that lies on the we shouldn't do it because of the reaction and we shouldn't not do it because people threaten violence.

    Lots of other arguments in and around it but I don't think that is a good argument against a 2nd referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
    No I said Boris v Javid was the likely last two (though we agreed on much else) as there are enough ERG and Leave backing Tory MPs to ensure a committed Leaver in the final too. The risk of that means many MPs will think in respect of May 'better keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'. Then provided she gets a deal based on Chequers she would be secure for the foreseeable future.

    Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:


    I doubt there would be much civil unrest, that is more something common on the far left, more likely there would be a new populist hard Brexit and anti immigration party formed out of the ashes of UKIP

    From where would such a Party draw its support, the Conservatives obviously but perhaps some from Labour as well?

    What kind of damage could and would it do to the Conservatives?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    I know this is hard for you, but when you claim the moral high ground, your gross failings are going to be pointed out to you.
  • Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    Alastair has a deaf ear on this and no amount of swearing will cure his problem

    Alastair is a very interesting poster and it is a shame he has this obssession that turns so many off
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I doubt there would be much civil unrest, that is more something common on the far left, more likely there would be a new populist hard Brexit and anti immigration party formed out of the ashes of UKIP

    From where would such a Party draw its support, the Conservatives obviously but perhaps some from Labour as well?

    What kind of damage could and would it do to the Conservatives?
    Well see the 2014 European elections where the Tories came third behind UKIP and Labour.

    If the Tories were seen to have betrayed the Brexit vote completely a Canada 1993 result would be the nightmare with the Tories suffering the fate of the Progressive Conservatives then and losing power and getting overtaken by a populist party of the Right
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week

    Mischievous nonsense I'm afraid. Everyone in the Party has known since Day 1 Vince is an interim leader until Jo Swinson returns from maternity leave or is ready to take over.

    That was the plan but many in the Party want a contest not a coronation and there's growing support for Layla Moran to stand against Jo for the leadership and I think that would be a very good thing.

    The Party urgently needs to find a post-Brexit direction and that can include campaigning to re-join the EU but needs to cover the gamut of other issues.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    Alastair has a deaf ear on this and no amount of swearing will cure his problem

    Alastair is a very interesting poster and it is a shame he has this obssession that turns so many off
    Considering the many posters that go on about Labour and anti-semitism I'm not sure that Alastair is picked out by many people for anything more than party political reasons. If Alastair did exactly what he does regarding Brexit but about Labour instead the majority of people who criticise him would not.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
    No I said Boris v Javid was the likely last two (though we agreed on much else) as there are enough ERG and Leave backing Tory MPs to ensure a committed Leaver in the final too. The risk of that means many MPs will think in respect of May 'better keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'. Then provided she gets a deal based on Chequers she would be secure for the foreseeable future.

    Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
    I hope after Brexit Boris clears off to edit a paper or lie in front of some bulldozers. He is an utter liability
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I doubt there would be much civil unrest, that is more something common on the far left, more likely there would be a new populist hard Brexit and anti immigration party formed out of the ashes of UKIP

    From where would such a Party draw its support, the Conservatives obviously but perhaps some from Labour as well?

    What kind of damage could and would it do to the Conservatives?
    A lot
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    I know this is hard for you, but when you claim the moral high ground, your gross failings are going to be pointed out to you.
    You keep flogging the 'xenophobic lies' meme and use it to get around actually engaging with anything Leavers say. Tedious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
    No I said Boris v Javid was the likely last two (though we agreed on much else) as there are enough ERG and Leave backing Tory MPs to ensure a committed Leaver in the final too. The risk of that means many MPs will think in respect of May 'better keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'. Then provided she gets a deal based on Chequers she would be secure for the foreseeable future.

    Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
    I hope after Brexit Boris clears off to edit a paper or lie in front of some bulldozers. He is an utter liability
    He will remain as 'the Prince across the Water' I expect
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    Alastair has a deaf ear on this and no amount of swearing will cure his problem

    Alastair is a very interesting poster and it is a shame he has this obssession that turns so many off
    Yes - I enjoy Alastair's articles on just about anything else.
  • stodge said:


    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week

    Mischievous nonsense I'm afraid. Everyone in the Party has known since Day 1 Vince is an interim leader until Jo Swinson returns from maternity leave or is ready to take over.

    That was the plan but many in the Party want a contest not a coronation and there's growing support for Layla Moran to stand against Jo for the leadership and I think that would be a very good thing.

    The Party urgently needs to find a post-Brexit direction and that can include campaigning to re-join the EU but needs to cover the gamut of other issues.

    Well it has been suggested he will resign next week but no matter he has been hopeless
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    She won't outlast Corbyn. I can see him going before 2022, but I don't think he will possibly step down before May is gone, and since he is rock solid safe with his members and will thus only go of his own accord he will not let that be before her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited August 2018
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    The peoples vote is a big moment for labour. If Corbyn rejects it and continues his anti semetic roll then the position for moderates will be to either leave or be complicit with Corbyn
    True. It would be ironic - and would say an awful lot about the moral compass of the Blairite wing - if the last straw for them isn't Corbyn's history of anti-Semitic associations but him wanting to deliver on a referendum result.
    The moral compass of Leave campaigners was to support a campaign founded on xenophobic lies. They’re not in a position to deliver sermons.
    Alastair, I know this is hard for you, but try getting the fuck over yourself.
    I know this is hard for you, but when you claim the moral high ground, your gross failings are going to be pointed out to you.
    You keep flogging the 'xenophobic lies' meme and use it to get around actually engaging with anything Leavers say. Tedious.
    Don't interrupt a childish temper tantrum. It makes its own point, especially when said child thinks it shows their moral and intellectual superiority. It's amazingly sad, but apparently children can be happy wallowing in their own self pity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    The no deal it is. It doesn't have to be at the expense of the EU's integrity.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Well it has been suggested he will resign next week but no matter he has been hopeless

    No it hasn't apart from a half-baked article in the currant bun.

    Vince will use the Party Conference to, I suspect, initiate the process of choosing a new leader which at the moment is more about this absurd idea of extending the franchise to non-members who would become "registered supporters" in order to get a vote.

    At least Labour got £3 out of each entryist Conservative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    He also said 'France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited August 2018
    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.
    HYUFD said:

    He also said 'France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London'
    The two are mutually exclusive - if they won't compromise, we cannot get that relationship.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    Eh? You're not leaving us, I hope.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    kle4 said:

    The no deal it is. It doesn't have to be at the expense of the EU's integrity.
    One might ask "what integrity?". The EU don't have the integrity to comply with the Article 50 procedure.....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    kle4 said:

    The no deal it is. It doesn't have to be at the expense of the EU's integrity.
    II wouldn't read it that way.

    Macron is personally invested in the European dream, and therefore has the most incentive to push back as far as he can, as long as he can, even if a deal is struck in the end. In other words, the "no deal" and "deal" variants of the Macron game plan look similar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    HYUFD said:

    He also said 'France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London'
    The Chequers Deal is designed to get a deal with the EU without the EU unravelling which was his key concern in the speech.

    Plus Macron also needs to work on his own approval rating at the same time

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1034137839745814528?s=20
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    stodge said:

    Well it has been suggested he will resign next week but no matter he has been hopeless

    No it hasn't apart from a half-baked article in the currant bun.

    Vince will use the Party Conference to, I suspect, initiate the process of choosing a new leader which at the moment is more about this absurd idea of extending the franchise to non-members who would become "registered supporters" in order to get a vote.

    At least Labour got £3 out of each entryist Conservative.
    Wasn't it £25 in 2016? Remarkable money-spinner for the party as I recall.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    HYUFD said:

    He also said 'France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London'
    Poor old Scotland gets ignored again...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
    No I said Boris v Javid was the likely last two (though we agreed on much else) as there are enough ERG and Leave backing Tory MPs to ensure a committed Leaver in the final too. The risk of that means many MPs will think in respect of May 'better keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'. Then provided she gets a deal based on Chequers she would be secure for the foreseeable future.

    Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
    Casting a vote in a Boris v Javid contest would require a lot of thinking about - by many of the members.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    The Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo on BBC1 now
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    I guess a key question is what Theresa May might think she needs to do after next March. A sense of duty can lead you in more than one direction.

    Given that she is the figure with the most agency in the UK over what happens with Brexit, her own motivations and views get remarkably little analysis. Her parliamentary career began during the nadir of the Conservative party's Eurosceptic-driven irrelevance and I suspect leaving the party in a better state than she found it is high on the list of things she wants to achieve.
    She strikes me as very much a party woman and reasonably self-aware. She knows she messed up big time last year, she’s in her 60s and has a chronic health problem. I expect she will be looking to pass the baton on to someone better placed to lead the Conservative party beyond the next election. Next year or the year after are the obvious times to do so.
    Lol @ "party woman"...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    In fact, @stodge, I don't think Cable's idea of opening up to registered supporters (if that is what he's planning) is a bad one. Labour have used it to colossally expand their membership base, as after payment of the fee registered supporters could upgrade to full membership for what amounted to a cut price. If something similar were to happen with the Liberal Democrats it could not only repair the party's finances but revitalise its membership base.

    See here:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labour-2016-voting-data/
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind "What will happen in March 2019?", what will happen in the party conference season if there is still no sign of a Brexit deal?

    Sod all, as replacing May would most likely lead to Boris as leader which really would mean no Brexit deal and Corbyn still has the Labour membership behind him too. Indeed the most likely leader to be next to go is Cable
    Not at all sure about May. She is more secure today than for a long time and she would walk a VONC. Furthermore Boris has angered sufficient conservative mps to keep him off the two sent to the membership. I recently said we were on the same page when you commented that Hunt vJavid was the likely last two and for me nothing has changed.(heard that somewhere before)

    Cable is a goner anyway, maybe as early as next week
    No I said Boris v Javid was the likely last two (though we agreed on much else) as there are enough ERG and Leave backing Tory MPs to ensure a committed Leaver in the final too. The risk of that means many MPs will think in respect of May 'better keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse'. Then provided she gets a deal based on Chequers she would be secure for the foreseeable future.

    Cable says he wants to lead the LDs through until the end of 2019 then stand down, we will see
    Casting a vote in a Boris v Javid contest would require a lot of thinking about - by many of the members.....
    Agreed. I think that would be a close one - with Javid probably just winning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, get rid of May and if Tory MPs cannot stop Boris getting to the membership he will succeed her.

    If she gets a deal next March she could well stay leader for years especially as the Tories are still roughly neck and neck with Labour in the polls

    Notwithstanding all that could happen for the government in the Brexit negotiations, the potential for things to go seriously mammaries skywards looks much greater for Labour than the Conservatives right now. Either a genuine tipping point is reached on anti-Semitism and/or Brexit, or (much more likely) the party divisions keep festering on.
    A new centrist party could of course change things dramatically
    Yes, but it's unlikely to happen. Labour's 'moderates' are seriously lacking in backbone.
    A few Momentum inspired deselections could focus their minds though
    Wait and see if a few Corbynites don’t abstain on the boundary review vote, just to make sure it passes and every sitting MP needs to be reselected.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    kle4 said:

    The no deal it is. It doesn't have to be at the expense of the EU's integrity.
    II wouldn't read it that way.

    Macron is personally invested in the European dream, and therefore has the most incentive to push back as far as he can, as long as he can, even if a deal is struck in the end. In other words, the "no deal" and "deal" variants of the Macron game plan look similar.
    Which is how, equally and opposite, I read the ERG.

    It’s about pushing the Govt as far away from harmonisation as is physically possible.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    Nobody else does the same thing in the same way (unless you can point to an example?) and irritation with this stuff is not confined to leave voters. It is the infantile inability to assume good faith in an interlocutor which grates.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    The two things are significantly different.

    Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.

    That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.

    I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.

    Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    HYUFD said:

    He also said 'France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London'
    The two are mutually exclusive - if they won't compromise, we cannot get that relationship.
    I hope you don't mean you will leave - ignore his posts if his rants get to you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    HYUFD said:

    The Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo on BBC1 now

    Autumn has arrived.

    My dad used to always say that the Edinburgh Tattoo was the first sign of autumn.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    The two things are significantly different.

    Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.

    That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.

    I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.

    Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
    So calling anyone who disagrees with you about Corbyn a cultist doesn't count as name-calling?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Autumn has arrived.

    My dad used to always say that the Edinburgh Tattoo was the first sign of autumn.

    There was a brief discussion on electrical safety on a previous thread.

    The Edinburgh military Tattoo is one of the more memorable places I gave myself an electric shock. twice.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    The two things are significantly different.

    Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.

    That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.

    I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.

    Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
    Sort of for Ishmael as well.

    Cult is a constant in reference to Labour supporters or sometimes more particularly Corbyn supporters, with accusations that anti semitism is used to impress these people, the left or sometimes Muslims, because obviously these groups love anti semitism. There may not be an individual who does it as consistently as Alastair but there is only one of him and the criticism mainly goes to Alastair, I suspect because there are far more Brexit supporters than Corbyn supporters here.

    The cult thing itself is very low level and I don't expect this to be a Labour friendly place so I don't hugely mind but Alastair is right when he talks about hypocrisy. He does also criticise Corbyn/Labour, I think he is similarly OTT in that regard as he is with Brexit, I do take his posts on it more seriously though because he is at least consistent in that regard.

    Edit: Slow typing and thinking rather than idea stealing!

    Or Stereo is just quicker than me...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:

    Autumn has arrived.

    My dad used to always say that the Edinburgh Tattoo was the first sign of autumn.

    There was a brief discussion on electrical safety on a previous thread.

    The Edinburgh military Tattoo is one of the more memorable places I gave myself an electric shock. twice.
    Tasered yourself in both feet?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    I 'bang on' about Labour and anti-Semitism, and I have no 'political points' to score. Although you'd probably disagree about that latter clause ... :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2018

    Tasered yourself in both feet?

    image
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Oh are they going to show those Swiss drummers? They are impressive and a bit weird and spooky at the same time.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    The two things are significantly different.

    Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.

    That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.

    I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.

    Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
    So calling anyone who disagrees with you about Corbyn a cultist doesn't count as name-calling?
    The idea that there is a cult-like aspect to the behaviour of ardent Corbyn supporters is very well established and goes well beyond these walls.

    If something looks like a cult, sounds like a cult and acts like a cult, it is reasonable to describe it as a cult.

    That is not abusive.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    kle4 said:

    Enough is enough though in being aggravated by the same idiotic, hateful nonsense perpetuated by Mr Meeks, someone who no longer deserves any respect from any reasonable person - his bitterness, childish logic and extremist ranting is not outweighed by his intellect and insight on other points, not when he postures about his moral superiority. He will probably be having an orgasm at having upset the 'right' people, but I will have to give him that, but respect? Undeserved. Fare thee well.

    I assume you have similarly strong feelings about those who bang on about Labour and anti semitism to score political points, or is it perhaps only things you have voted for you don't like questioned?

    The two things are significantly different.

    Those who discuss the problems of Labour and antisemitism rarely if ever make it a point to repeatedly attack other contributors with name-calling and other abuse.

    That is not what happens with regards to the regular forum contributor under discussion here.

    I really do wish there was an ignore function within the Vanilla software - so that we could all make choices as to who to read on here. It would make it possible to just avoid those who might trigger us into intemperate behaviour.

    Political debates should be robust and challenging. But name-calling and abuse from any side is unacceptable.
    So calling anyone who disagrees with you about Corbyn a cultist doesn't count as name-calling?
    The idea that there is a cult-like aspect to the behaviour of ardent Corbyn supporters is very well established and goes well beyond these walls.

    If something looks like a cult, sounds like a cult and acts like a cult, it is reasonable to describe it as a cult.

    That is not abusive.
    https://culteducation.com/warningsigns.html
This discussion has been closed.