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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He's on Joe Rogan's show tommorow evening.
    Popcorn time...especially if he decides to part-take in Joe Rogan's various vices that he offers his guests from time to time. Alex Jones being an extremely memorable one.

    Although in all seriousness, you would think that his legal advisers will be saying no questions on the cave stuff and screaming at Elon not to do a Red Ken.
    Musk needs to spend a month on a desert island with no phone and no drugs. He’s completely burned out and can’t be of any use to anyone right now.

    He also needs to make a serious and unequivocal apology to the caveman, before said caveman finds himself a good lawyer and sues him for millions.

    Rogan won’t care what questions someone doesn’t want to be asked, he’d be more than happy to see his guest start screaming or walk out.
    He also needs to learn that calling a journalist "you fucking asshole" in an email just for asking sane questions is, just perhaps, not wise wrt media relations.
    There’s that too.

    I’ve always been a huge admirer of Musk and his achievements, but like a lot of business owners there doesn’t appear to be anyone around him prepared to have a quiet word in his ear. There’s a limit to how long a man can work over 100 hours a week and he’s clearly crossed that line.

    I really hope that he’s got a lot of paperwork on his bid to take the company private, because if he hasn’t he’ll be Bernie Madoff’s next door neighbour next year.
    I regularly work 100hrs a week...I better keep off the twitter machine just in case....
    Really? That’s 7am-midnight, six days a week with no breaks.

    I could do that when I was 18 and paid by the hour in a bar job, but not at anything which requires mental agility and high pressure decision making. At the crunch point of a project it can be done for a week or two purely on adrenaline, but after that the brain and body start to suffer serious fatigue.
    It was kinda of a joke, but I do normally work 7 days a week, and a standard work day I am at my desk from 9am to around 3am (with breaks to hit the gym etc)...but obviously on post on PB, I often have sports on, etc.
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    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    Two years is a short period of time to draw such conclusions.

    @Andy_Cooke's first point about past vote recall is more interesting to me. It's perhaps a hint that the polls might be understating Remain's lead as they excessively downweight respondents who said they voted Remain (some of whom either didn't vote or voted Leave).
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
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    Morning all.

    Vaguely on topic, I'm going to surprise you all by praising the report which the IPPR has just released. Predictably, much of the coverage has been about 'how dare Archbish Welby propose to nick our wealth'. But that's a pity: this is actually a quite interesting and balanced set of proposals, from a left-of-centre political position. The contrast between what the IPPR are proposing, and the 60s fantasies which the Labour Party under Corbyn and McDonnell are pushing, is dramatic.

    There's a good summary of the main proposals here:

    - An immediate increase in the minimum wage to the real Living Wage of £10.20 in London and £8.75 outside the the capital.

    - A requirement that workers on zero-hours contracts be paid 20% above the higher real Living Wage rate.

    - An industrial strategy to boost the UK’s exports, backed by a new national investment bank that would raise £15bn a year to push public investment to the G7 average of 3.5% of GDP.

    - Major changes to how UK companies are governed, such as: enshrining a broader purpose in directors’ duties; the inclusion of workers on company boards; a rise in the headline rate of corporation tax and a minimum rate of corporation tax to tackle tax avoidance by multinationals.

    - Taxing work and wealth on the same basis, with a single income tax for all types of income (meaning the abolition of capital gains tax and dividend tax), and the replacement of inheritance tax with a lifetime gift tax, levied on recipients rather than estates, which would raise £9bn a year.

    - A new “economic constitution” for the UK, devolving more economic powers to the nations and regions.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/05/thinktank-calls-for-major-overhaul-of-britains-economy

    I personally would be very sceptical about parts of the third and fourth of those, and I'm not sure how practical the last is. OTOH the suggestion that zero-hours contracts should attract a higher hourly minimum rate is rather interesting.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    That is not what I meant, as well you know. Still, it's interesting that the negative stereotypes are the ones that you automatically jump on.

    I prefer the Scotland of a red-headed piper standing in a Glen, whilst locals dance in a ceilidh. Meanwhile, in the local town, some wise people are sitting down to work out how Scotland's next success in science and engineering as someone at the bar quotes Burns.

    But if you only want to see the negatives ...

    (I could have added Nessie in there, or kilts.)
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,631

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It doesn't matter how many polls haver remain in front. We are leaving , end of story.

    Though if there has been a genuine movement in opinion against Brexit leaving anyway does provide its own challenge to British democracy.
    IF we decided to remain, there would be riots, I kid you not.
    Are you saying leavers are violent thugs? ;)
    They will attack with a phalanx of zimmer frames.
    In a stand-up fight between Remain voters v Leave voters, I reckon the whiny wimpy spineless Remainers would get a hell of a pasting.....

    According to Goodwin, LEAVE were a coalition between the poor, the retired, and wealthy social conservatives. The former would probably be handy in a scrap, but the retired would pose no realistic threat and the fops would be too busy holidaying outside the country to engage. So LEAVE would lose on grounds of numbers.

    This is fun. Can we reintroduce trial-by-combat for economic issues? I think we should settle whether we should restrict supernormally profitable companies by using flamethrowers.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    Two years is a short period of time to draw such conclusions.

    @Andy_Cooke's first point about past vote recall is more interesting to me. It's perhaps a hint that the polls might be understating Remain's lead as they excessively downweight respondents who said they voted Remain (some of whom either didn't vote or voted Leave).
    Given we only have two years, that is all the data we have to work on. The alternative is to say nothing about the cohort effect or otherwise.

    Interesting point about downweighting.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,850
    Two Russian nationals named in connection with Salisbury Novichok attack.
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    Morning all.

    Vaguely on topic, I'm going to surprise you all by praising the report which the IPPR has just released. Predictably, much of the coverage has been about 'how dare Archbish Welby propose to nick our wealth'. But that's a pity: this is actually a quite interesting and balanced set of proposals, from a left-of-centre political position. The contrast between what the IPPR are proposing, and the 60s fantasies which the Labour Party under Corbyn and McDonnell are pushing, is dramatic.

    There's a good summary of the main proposals here:

    - An immediate increase in the minimum wage to the real Living Wage of £10.20 in London and £8.75 outside the the capital.

    - A requirement that workers on zero-hours contracts be paid 20% above the higher real Living Wage rate.

    - An industrial strategy to boost the UK’s exports, backed by a new national investment bank that would raise £15bn a year to push public investment to the G7 average of 3.5% of GDP.

    - Major changes to how UK companies are governed, such as: enshrining a broader purpose in directors’ duties; the inclusion of workers on company boards; a rise in the headline rate of corporation tax and a minimum rate of corporation tax to tackle tax avoidance by multinationals.

    - Taxing work and wealth on the same basis, with a single income tax for all types of income (meaning the abolition of capital gains tax and dividend tax), and the replacement of inheritance tax with a lifetime gift tax, levied on recipients rather than estates, which would raise £9bn a year.

    - A new “economic constitution” for the UK, devolving more economic powers to the nations and regions.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/05/thinktank-calls-for-major-overhaul-of-britains-economy

    I personally would be very sceptical about parts of the third and fourth of those, and I'm not sure how practical the last is. OTOH the suggestion that zero-hours contracts should attract a higher hourly minimum rate is rather interesting.

    Could have the effect of making zero-hours more attractive to people on very low wages.

    So there could end up being more of it.

    Is that a good idea? Seems debatable.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited September 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
    Where is your evidence that the change effect is continuing? Rather, the meagre longitudinal evidence that we have suggests that it has been replaced by a cohort effect (which was @Andy_Cooke 's OP).
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
    That was the point of me pointing out the difference between the first and second types of generational split.
    There do seem to be indications this is of the cohort type, but, as @AlastairMeeks has pointed out, it's still rather early to come to a conclusion on it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Scott_P said:
    It is a sad day for those of us who want a functioning democracy.
    Indeed. That next meeting of the NEC is key. Overturn yesterday's position - and Labour will finally, massively split. There's simply nothing to stay for if they do.
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    Could have the effect of making zero-hours more attractive to people on very low wages.

    So there could end up being more of it.

    Is that a good idea? Seems debatable.

    Maybe. Worth exploring further, I think.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It doesn't matter how many polls haver remain in front. We are leaving , end of story.

    Though if there has been a genuine movement in opinion against Brexit leaving anyway does provide its own challenge to British democracy.
    IF we decided to remain, there would be riots, I kid you not.
    Are you saying leavers are violent thugs? ;)
    They will attack with a phalanx of zimmer frames.
    In a stand-up fight between Remain voters v Leave voters, I reckon the whiny wimpy spineless Remainers would get a hell of a pasting.....

    Under 50s v Over 50s. Hmmmm.

    But we have a 52:48 numerical edge....
    Leave supporters are much tougher, due to eating faggots and leak puddings, and performing manual labour. Remainers are weaker, from eating foreign muck, and doing poncy jobs.
    Glad to see somebody hasn't checked their sense of humour at the front desk....
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    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Since when did the EU become a state? Its like the people on Facebook demanding the restoration of the Palestinian state - what state? Latest one was the "shocking confession" by ex Israeli PM Golda Meir that she "had a Palestinian Passport". Yeah. Mandate Palestine. Again, not a state.

    The EU now attends the G7 and G20 and has its own currency and parliament and Head of State and will soon have its own army
    AFAICR Mortimer attended the last Test Match but I didn't see him opening the bowling. Plus the EU has a currency that sovereign states could and did choose not to join; and I don't see an EU army any more than we have a NATO army.

    Other than that, spot on.
    What I don't understand from the "its all about sovereignty" extremists is why they are not concerned about the massive great f****ing airbase near me called "RAF" Lakenheath. If ever there were a surrender of our sovereignty this is it in extremis. Perhaps they are in favour of kicking out the yanks and pulling out of NATO and the jurisdiction of the UN? If so, please explain yourselves
    US forces at Lakenheath and the other similar facilities are only subject to US not British jurisdiction. There are also plenty of 'NOFORN' facilities on the bases so the UK government doesn't have a clue what is going on in them. None of the people who are getting inflamed arseholes about an EU patch on a squaddie's shoulder seem to care about it though...
    Might be because it doesn’t lead to the passing of laws, without objection from our elected representatives, that affect British citizens going about their daily lives?

    The anti-sovereigntyists have tried this before. It’s a foolish argument.
    The only foolish argument is that that is dishonestly or ignorantly propagated by opponents of EU membership. As I have said on here many times, the UK was, is and would have continued to be sovereign while part of EU. If you don't understand that, please answer why we were able to have a referendum on membership, decide to leave, go to war, have membership of other supranational bodies such as UN, NATO etc etc. Scotland by contrast is not sovereign and can do none of these things. Pooled sovereignty always has been part of British foreign policy for probably centuries in one form or other. The sovereignty argument by the swivel-eyed is the most stupid of all their vacuous nonsense.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,850

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He's on Joe Rogan's show tommorow evening.
    Popcorn time...especially if he decides to part-take in Joe Rogan's various vices that he offers his guests from time to time. Alex Jones being an extremely memorable one.

    Although in all seriousness, you would think that his legal advisers will be saying no questions on the cave stuff and screaming at Elon not to do a Red Ken.
    Musk needs to spend a month on a desert island with no phone and no drugs. He’s completely burned out and can’t be of any use to anyone right now.

    He also needs to make a serious and unequivocal apology to the caveman, before said caveman finds himself a good lawyer and sues him for millions.

    Rogan won’t care what questions someone doesn’t want to be asked, he’d be more than happy to see his guest start screaming or walk out.
    He also needs to learn that calling a journalist "you fucking asshole" in an email just for asking sane questions is, just perhaps, not wise wrt media relations.
    There’s that too.

    I’ve always been a huge admirer of Musk and his achievements, but like a lot of business owners there doesn’t appear to be anyone around him prepared to have a quiet word in his ear. There’s a limit to how long a man can work over 100 hours a week and he’s clearly crossed that line.

    I really hope that he’s got a lot of paperwork on his bid to take the company private, because if he hasn’t he’ll be Bernie Madoff’s next door neighbour next year.
    I regularly work 100hrs a week...I better keep off the twitter machine just in case....
    Really? That’s 7am-midnight, six days a week with no breaks.

    I could do that when I was 18 and paid by the hour in a bar job, but not at anything which requires mental agility and high pressure decision making. At the crunch point of a project it can be done for a week or two purely on adrenaline, but after that the brain and body start to suffer serious fatigue.
    It was kinda of a joke, but I do normally work 7 days a week, and a standard work day I am at my desk from 9am to around 3am (with breaks to hit the gym etc)...but obviously on post on PB, I often have sports on, etc.
    I’m not quite that bad, usually finish around midnight - but am working from home most of the time, so plenty of breaks for PB, PMQs, news, cricket and other sports.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018
    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.
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    OTOH the suggestion that zero-hours contracts should attract a higher hourly minimum rate is rather interesting.

    That struck me as interesting too......nice one for Mrs May to nick.....
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    Sandpit said:


    I’m not quite that bad, usually finish around midnight - but am working from home most of the time, so plenty of breaks for PB, PMQs, news, cricket and other sports.

    I am also take quite a lot of vacation time. Basically when I am working, I am on it, then I take down time.
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    Scott_P said:
    It is a sad day for those of us who want a functioning democracy.
    Indeed. That next meeting of the NEC is key. Overturn yesterday's position - and Labour will finally, massively split. There's simply nothing to stay for if they do.
    There is nothing to stay for now.

    Everyone knows what Corbyn wanted to add by way of his personal statement on the matter. He isn't going to change his mind whether or not that is adopted (or tweaked and then adopted)

    He has made it impossible to view him other than as anti-semitic.

    Given that won't change, what difference will another vote make?

    The JC9 were elected to the NEC. Corbyn has outed himself once and for all.

    It is laudable to the loyal to the Labour Party. But that has ceased to exist. Stay loyal to your ideals, your beliefs and create a new party to campaign for what really matters. That is true loyalty.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It doesn't matter how many polls haver remain in front. We are leaving , end of story.

    Though if there has been a genuine movement in opinion against Brexit leaving anyway does provide its own challenge to British democracy.
    IF we decided to remain, there would be riots, I kid you not.
    Are you saying leavers are violent thugs? ;)
    They will attack with a phalanx of zimmer frames.
    In a stand-up fight between Remain voters v Leave voters, I reckon the whiny wimpy spineless Remainers would get a hell of a pasting.....

    Under 50s v Over 50s. Hmmmm.

    But we have a 52:48 numerical edge....
    Leave supporters are much tougher, due to eating faggots and leak puddings, and performing manual labour. Remainers are weaker, from eating foreign muck, and doing poncy jobs.
    It's already kicked off .....

    https://metro.co.uk/video/two-women-fight-waiting-paul-nuttall-hartlepool-1455567/
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    Just when you think Labour can't make this worse, they send Shami Chakrabarti to do a radio interview.

    It makes me sad that a major political party with a rich history has become such a toxic mess.

    It makes me angry that people are not taking action to stop the rot. And it is now so clear that it is rotting from the head. Yesterday's proposed 'preface' put that beyond any doubt.

    I agree. Many people are crying out for a sensible alternative to the current government. At the moment there is not a credible option. Some people (Carlotta perhaps) rather like that
    What a bizarre comment. I have consistently bemoaned the state of the opposition especially as it has not caused the government to raise its game.
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    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    That is impressive work by those involved in the investigation.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    One interesting finding for me was on the age breakdown. When you have a significant difference age-wise in opinion, it can be one of two things:
    1 - An opinion that tends to change as we age. A good example of this is Conservative support; it's been frequently discussed that if this didn't happen, the Conservatives would have crashed in support by now. Many of the 18-24-year-olds in 1974 who were very anti-Conservative in recorded polls are now the 60+ cohort that forms their bedrock.
    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
    Where is your evidence that the change effect is continuing? Rather, the meagre longitudinal evidence that we have suggests that it has been replaced by a cohort effect (which was @Andy_Cooke 's OP).
    There's no evidence on which one could form a conclusion at this stage.

    Up till now, the evidence from Nat Cen surveys, which track age cohorts over long periods of time, has been that people become more hostile to immigration, and more eurosceptic as they get older, but that may of course change.
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    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    Does his best Jezza impression....I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was Russia.
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    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It doesn't matter how many polls haver remain in front. We are leaving , end of story.

    Though if there has been a genuine movement in opinion against Brexit leaving anyway does provide its own challenge to British democracy.
    IF we decided to remain, there would be riots, I kid you not.
    Are you saying leavers are violent thugs? ;)
    They will attack with a phalanx of zimmer frames.
    In a stand-up fight between Remain voters v Leave voters, I reckon the whiny wimpy spineless Remainers would get a hell of a pasting.....

    Under 50s v Over 50s. Hmmmm.

    But we have a 52:48 numerical edge....
    Leave supporters are much tougher, due to eating faggots and leak puddings, and performing manual labour. Remainers are weaker, from eating foreign muck, and doing poncy jobs.
    It's already kicked off .....

    https://metro.co.uk/video/two-women-fight-waiting-paul-nuttall-hartlepool-1455567/
    Are we sure it's not just another average day in Hartlepool?
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    I think many less well educated people in all countries have derogatory descriptions and prejudices toward others. We should all work to discourage it. Scotland is certainly not free of prejudice thinking and behaving, indeed of all the countries in the world that I have travelled I would say Scotland demonstrates some of the worst traits of low-level prejudice (which would account for the popularity of a nationalist party). The amount of times I heard taxi drivers in Glasgow make prejudiced remarks about English people and/or other foreigners as they saw them, massively outweighs the amount of times I have heard such remarks in London
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    So much for Corbyns lines.....unless he thinks it's a fit up by MI5, which he probably does.
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    That is not what I meant, as well you know. Still, it's interesting that the negative stereotypes are the ones that you automatically jump on.

    I prefer the Scotland of a red-headed piper standing in a Glen, whilst locals dance in a ceilidh. Meanwhile, in the local town, some wise people are sitting down to work out how Scotland's next success in science and engineering as someone at the bar quotes Burns.

    But if you only want to see the negatives ...

    (I could have added Nessie in there, or kilts.)
    An authentic Brigadoonist, as I live and breath.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799


    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    I think many less well educated people in all countries have derogatory descriptions and prejudices toward others. We should all work to discourage it. Scotland is certainly not free of prejudice thinking and behaving, indeed of all the countries in the world that I have travelled I would say Scotland demonstrates some of the worst traits of low-level prejudice (which would account for the popularity of a nationalist party). The amount of times I heard taxi drivers in Glasgow make prejudiced remarks about English people and/or other foreigners as they saw them, massively outweighs the amount of times I have heard such remarks in London
    Many well-educated people also have prejudices towards others, but they choose targets that their peer group approve of.
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    So much for Corbyns lines.....unless he thinks it's a fit up by MI5, which he probably does.

    Its that evil NATO again, trying to start a cold war.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He's on Joe Rogan's show tommorow evening.
    Popcorn time...especially if he decides to part-take in Joe Rogan's various vices that he offers his guests from time to time. Alex Jones being an extremely memorable one.

    Although in all seriousness, you would think that his legal advisers will be saying no questions on the cave stuff and screaming at Elon not to do a Red Ken.
    Musk needs to spend a month on a desert island with no phone and no drugs. He’s completely burned out and can’t be of any use to anyone right now.

    He also needs to make a serious and unequivocal apology to the caveman, before said caveman finds himself a good lawyer and sues him for millions.

    Rogan won’t care what questions someone doesn’t want to be asked, he’d be more than happy to see his guest start screaming or walk out.
    He also needs to learn that calling a journalist "you fucking asshole" in an email just for asking sane questions is, just perhaps, not wise wrt media relations.
    There’s that too.

    I’ve always been a huge admirer of Musk and his achievements, but like a lot of business owners there doesn’t appear to be anyone around him prepared to have a quiet word in his ear. There’s a limit to how long a man can work over 100 hours a week and he’s clearly crossed that line.

    I really hope that he’s got a lot of paperwork on his bid to take the company private, because if he hasn’t he’ll be Bernie Madoff’s next door neighbour next year.
    I regularly work 100hrs a week...I better keep off the twitter machine just in case....
    Really? That’s 7am-midnight, six days a week with no breaks.

    I could do that when I was 18 and paid by the hour in a bar job, but not at anything which requires mental agility and high pressure decision making. At the crunch point of a project it can be done for a week or two purely on adrenaline, but after that the brain and body start to suffer serious fatigue.
    It was kinda of a joke, but I do normally work 7 days a week, and a standard work day I am at my desk from 9am to around 3am (with breaks to hit the gym etc)...but obviously on post on PB, I often have sports on, etc.
    9am-3am – really? That's insane. You will burn out within a few years.


    Scale it back.
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    Could have the effect of making zero-hours more attractive to people on very low wages.

    So there could end up being more of it.

    Is that a good idea? Seems debatable.

    Maybe. Worth exploring further, I think.
    It is an interesting idea. Although won't employers just offer a guaranteed, say 4 hours per week to get round it?
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
    Where is your evidence that the change effect is continuing? Rather, the meagre longitudinal evidence that we have suggests that it has been replaced by a cohort effect (which was @Andy_Cooke 's OP).
    There's no evidence on which one could form a conclusion at this stage.

    Up till now, the evidence from Nat Cen surveys, which track age cohorts over long periods of time, has been that people become more hostile to immigration, and more eurosceptic as they get older, but that may of course change.
    Not so. Andy has already shown you the evidence, hence his OP. You could reasonably argue that he lacks sufficient evidence, but that is not the same thing. Rather, your post presents as wishful thinking.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Labour spent the whole day yesterday leading the news with their antisemitism enquiry, and after an hours-long meeting of their NEC they still couldn’t agree to simply use the standard definition without caveat, thus pleasing no-one and keeping the story running for longer. Did I get that right?
    Well, until the newly-formed NEC in October decides to overturn September's meeting, yes.
    The problem Labour has to attend to is where does this anti-Semitism spring from. Most believe it is related to Palestine. I think this is just an excuse. My belief is that it was encapsulated in that racist poster that Corbyn failed to condemn.

    The root cause of Hard Left anti-Semitism is based on the same paranoid prejudice of the Far Right - a belief that the capitalist system is a system designed for the benefit of the Jews - the Jewish Conspiracy. That is the real reason Corbyn and his allies hate Jews. Their support of Palestine is simply an effect, not the cause. He is simply a left wing racist, and he and his fellow travellers and supporters should be called out as such.
    It's probably more simple than that. He sees the Jews as disproportionately wealthy and he sees the Palestinians as being downtrodden by an imperialist power. An irresistable emnity for anyone on hard left. Though the first of these is a stereotype too far I don't see anything wrong with believing whatever he wants about Israel. No other country is out of bounds nor should they be.
    It is conflating Jews and Israel though. The stereotype of Jews is racist, but it is the counterpoint that I find particularly disturbing. The Palestinians suffer at the hands of Israel, not Jews. Palestinians attack the citizens and state of Israel, not Jews.
    Yes, and 99.99% of Labour supporter attacks on Israel directly reference Israel, not Jews. If anyone is trying to conflate Israel and Zionism with jews as a whole - an anti-semitic act - it is those appalling politically motivated right-wingers of all faiths and none trying to whip up this disgusting and dangerous fake anti-semitism storm.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Scott_P said:
    It is a sad day for those of us who want a functioning democracy.
    Indeed. That next meeting of the NEC is key. Overturn yesterday's position - and Labour will finally, massively split. There's simply nothing to stay for if they do.
    There is nothing to stay for now.

    Everyone knows what Corbyn wanted to add by way of his personal statement on the matter. He isn't going to change his mind whether or not that is adopted (or tweaked and then adopted)

    He has made it impossible to view him other than as anti-semitic.

    Given that won't change, what difference will another vote make?

    The JC9 were elected to the NEC. Corbyn has outed himself once and for all.

    It is laudable to the loyal to the Labour Party. But that has ceased to exist. Stay loyal to your ideals, your beliefs and create a new party to campaign for what really matters. That is true loyalty.
    Oh, I agree. But I just think if the NEC go backwards and support Corbyn's position next time, it is impossible to perform the moral gymnastics to stay put. And I think at that point a large body of people will stop trying.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487


    Could have the effect of making zero-hours more attractive to people on very low wages.

    So there could end up being more of it.

    Is that a good idea? Seems debatable.

    Maybe. Worth exploring further, I think.
    It is an interesting idea. Although won't employers just offer a guaranteed, say 4 hours per week to get round it?
    In which case, one might reasonably argue the policy has done its job. 'Use it or lose it'.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Is there not a quid pro quo here. Wouldn't Russia quite like some of their own nationals in the UK extradicted back?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621


    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    I thought all Welsh people sang?
    Probably not this one.

    https://tinyurl.com/ycfcvg7e
    "This version seems to have been particularly popular in the English counties that bordered Wales, where it was sung on Saint David's Day (1 March) complete with leek-wearing effigies of Welshmen. The image of thieving Welshmen seems to have begun to die down by the mid-twentieth century, although the insulting rhyme was still sometimes used along with the name "Taffy" for any Welshman."

    Funny how stereotypes and vitriol are strongest against those closest to you. Even at school there was a rivalry between the "sheep shagging yokels" and the "mincing townies". This was a market town of 10,000 people in Cumbria.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,337
    Cutting through the chaff, this means there will be another huge row after conference - when the new NEC (sans Rhea Wolfson, Izzard or Ann Black, who whatever their politics understand why Labour can't rewrite and undermine the IHRA document) are incredibly likely to push through Corbyn's specific line about being able to call "the foundation" of Israel racist. That effectively strikes out one example and we're back to square one. It could be the moment several MPs say "sod this, I can't take any more" - especially if Corbyn gives his boilerplate "I'm opposed to anti-Semitism but" speech at conference.
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    Just when you think Labour can't make this worse, they send Shami Chakrabarti to do a radio interview.

    It makes me sad that a major political party with a rich history has become such a toxic mess.

    It makes me angry that people are not taking action to stop the rot. And it is now so clear that it is rotting from the head. Yesterday's proposed 'preface' put that beyond any doubt.

    I agree. Many people are crying out for a sensible alternative to the current government. At the moment there is not a credible option. Some people (Carlotta perhaps) rather like that
    What a bizarre comment. I have consistently bemoaned the state of the opposition especially as it has not caused the government to raise its game.
    My apologies then Carlotta, I must have overlooked them. I suppose my comment was based on your damascene conversion to the cause of Leave, and your "tough shit" comments relating to the convenient fact that neither of the main parties are offering a proper voice for the 48% who voted against the madness known as Brexit
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Meanwhile, an actual example of people of other nationalities being directly (rather than abstractly) targeted is passing unnoticed.

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1037065464130744320

    There is a legitimate argument that there should be a trade off between EU citizen rights in the U.K. and vice versa.. like we would have with Australia or the US

    That is different to what Farage is saying. He is, as is well known, an odious man with unpleasant views
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2018
    Anazina said:



    9am-3am – really? That's insane. You will burn out within a few years.


    Scale it back.

    I have done that pretty much my entire adult life. As I say, I take breaks, gym, go out for dinner etc and probably take 6-8 weeks off a year on vacation. Since I was a kid I have never really slept more than 5-6hrs a night.

    I actually don't work as hard as when I was a professional gambler, as they say it is a hard way to make an easy living.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,577
    edited September 2018

    Just when you think Labour can't make this worse, they send Shami Chakrabarti to do a radio interview.

    It makes me sad that a major political party with a rich history has become such a toxic mess.

    It makes me angry that people are not taking action to stop the rot. And it is now so clear that it is rotting from the head. Yesterday's proposed 'preface' put that beyond any doubt.

    I agree. Many people are crying out for a sensible alternative to the current government. At the moment there is not a credible option. Some people (Carlotta perhaps) rather like that
    What a bizarre comment. I have consistently bemoaned the state of the opposition especially as it has not caused the government to raise its game.
    My apologies then Carlotta, I must have overlooked them. I suppose my comment was based on your damascene conversion to the cause of Leave, and your "tough shit" comments relating to the convenient fact that neither of the main parties are offering a proper voice for the 48% who voted against the madness known as Brexit
    The Lib Dems did - but they weren't voted for in significant numbers. What alternative do you suggest?

    And I've never had a 'Damascene conversion to the cause of Leave'. I just haven't lost my respect for 'democracy'.
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    JWisemann said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So Labour spent the whole day yesterday leading the news with their antisemitism enquiry, and after an hours-long meeting of their NEC they still couldn’t agree to simply use the standard definition without caveat, thus pleasing no-one and keeping the story running for longer. Did I get that right?
    Well, until the newly-formed NEC in October decides to overturn September's meeting, yes.
    The problem Labour has to attend to is where does this anti-Semitism spring from. Most believe it is related to Palestine. I think this is just an excuse. My belief is that it was encapsulated in that racist poster that Corbyn failed to condemn.

    The root cause of Hard Left anti-Semitism is based on the same paranoid prejudice of the Far Right - a belief that the capitalist system is a system designed for the benefit of the Jews - the Jewish Conspiracy. That is the real reason Corbyn and his allies hate Jews. Their support of Palestine is simply an effect, not the cause. He is simply a left wing racist, and he and his fellow travellers and supporters should be called out as such.
    It's probably more simple than that. He sees the Jews as disproportionately wealthy and he sees the Palestinians as being downtrodden by an imperialist power. An irresistable emnity for anyone on hard left. Though the first of these is a stereotype too far I don't see anything wrong with believing whatever he wants about Israel. No other country is out of bounds nor should they be.
    It is conflating Jews and Israel though. The stereotype of Jews is racist, but it is the counterpoint that I find particularly disturbing. The Palestinians suffer at the hands of Israel, not Jews. Palestinians attack the citizens and state of Israel, not Jews.
    Yes, and 99.99% of Labour supporter attacks on Israel directly reference Israel, not Jews. If anyone is trying to conflate Israel and Zionism with jews as a whole - an anti-semitic act - it is those appalling politically motivated right-wingers of all faiths and none trying to whip up this disgusting and dangerous fake anti-semitism storm.
    If you think anti-Semitism is fake, particularly in the Labour Party you are either a fool or complicit. Anyone that is complicit in a form of racism is, by extension a racist
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    Anthony Wells also clarifies for over excited Remainers:

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1037256161303691264
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    That is not what I meant, as well you know. Still, it's interesting that the negative stereotypes are the ones that you automatically jump on.

    I prefer the Scotland of a red-headed piper standing in a Glen, whilst locals dance in a ceilidh. Meanwhile, in the local town, some wise people are sitting down to work out how Scotland's next success in science and engineering as someone at the bar quotes Burns.

    But if you only want to see the negatives ...

    (I could have added Nessie in there, or kilts.)
    An authentic Brigadoonist, as I live and breath.
    So anyone saying how great your country is (and I do, frequently - I even praised Glasgow recently after a couple of walks through it) is a 'Brigadoonist', and the only stereotypes that matter are negative ones.

    You appear to have issues. And the 'English' isn't one of them ...

    And before you decry 'brigadoonist'; you might want to consider how much money the works and mythologies of the likes of Walter Scott or R.L. Stevenson have brought to Scotland.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Although, the movement towards people remembering voting remain is interesting.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    JWisemann said:

    Yes, and 99.99% of Labour supporter attacks on Israel directly reference Israel, not Jews. If anyone is trying to conflate Israel and Zionism with jews as a whole - an anti-semitic act - it is those appalling politically motivated right-wingers of all faiths and none trying to whip up this disgusting and dangerous fake anti-semitism storm.

    If you think anti-Semitism is fake, particularly in the Labour Party you are either a fool or complicit. Anyone that is complicit in a form of racism is, by extension a racist
    Yep. Damn right.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    Does his best Jezza impression....I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was Russia.
    You can rely on Jezza to take up cudgels on behalf of the 0.01% likelihood outcome....
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    Will existing European Arrest Warrants hold good post-Brexit if no deal is done? That's not a rhetorical question - I don't know.
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    Just when you think Labour can't make this worse, they send Shami Chakrabarti to do a radio interview.

    It makes me sad that a major political party with a rich history has become such a toxic mess.

    It makes me angry that people are not taking action to stop the rot. And it is now so clear that it is rotting from the head. Yesterday's proposed 'preface' put that beyond any doubt.

    I agree. Many people are crying out for a sensible alternative to the current government. At the moment there is not a credible option. Some people (Carlotta perhaps) rather like that
    What a bizarre comment. I have consistently bemoaned the state of the opposition especially as it has not caused the government to raise its game.
    My apologies then Carlotta, I must have overlooked them. I suppose my comment was based on your damascene conversion to the cause of Leave, and your "tough shit" comments relating to the convenient fact that neither of the main parties are offering a proper voice for the 48% who voted against the madness known as Brexit
    The Lib Dems did - but they weren't voted for in significant numbers. What alternative do you suggest?

    And I've never had a 'Damascene conversion to the cause of Leave'. I just haven't lost my respect for 'democracy'.
    The latter would refer to your regular comments that would suggest you think the result was something to be "ya boo sucks" at those that think it is bad. That suggests the fanaticism of the convert, and an inability to recognise the shallowness that it suggests.

    The LibDems will never have the realistic chance of government on their own so that is a silly argument. If you really believe in democracy then you really ought to question the democratic legitimacy of the implementation of the result without further recourse to the electorate, and the fundamental democratic legitimacy of our currently highly flawed system that denies the 48% proper representation. I suspect you are a TMay loyalist so I doubt you will.
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    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534
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    Will existing European Arrest Warrants hold good post-Brexit if no deal is done? That's not a rhetorical question - I don't know.
    To be agreed, I imagine.
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    Will existing European Arrest Warrants hold good post-Brexit if no deal is done? That's not a rhetorical question - I don't know.
    To be agreed, I imagine.
    It would be a good question for someone to ask today.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2018
    Meanwhile, in other conspiracy news, the Russkies are suggesting that their leaky space station module was the result of sabotage, possibly while in orbit. Because being an inch from the airless void is just when I want to break out the Black and Decker.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/sep/05/space-station-air-leak-someone-drilled-the-hole-say-russians
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    The one on the left is Toady out of Neighbours if that helps.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,850

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    That’s a seriously impressive investigation, it’s very good to know that this capability exists.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2018
    Dura_Ace said:


    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    The one on the left is Toady out of Neighbours if that helps.
    By George I think that is the bounder.

    https://twitter.com/jarrodtoadfish
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    Dura_Ace said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    The one on the left is Toady out of Neighbours if that helps.
    the one on the right borrowed his beard from Peter Sutcliffe
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    That is not what I meant, as well you know. Still, it's interesting that the negative stereotypes are the ones that you automatically jump on.

    I prefer the Scotland of a red-headed piper standing in a Glen, whilst locals dance in a ceilidh. Meanwhile, in the local town, some wise people are sitting down to work out how Scotland's next success in science and engineering as someone at the bar quotes Burns.

    But if you only want to see the negatives ...

    (I could have added Nessie in there, or kilts.)
    An authentic Brigadoonist, as I live and breath.
    So anyone saying how great your country is (and I do, frequently - I even praised Glasgow recently after a couple of walks through it) is a 'Brigadoonist', and the only stereotypes that matter are negative ones.

    You appear to have issues. And the 'English' isn't one of them ...

    And before you decry 'brigadoonist'; you might want to consider how much money the works and mythologies of the likes of Walter Scott or R.L. Stevenson have brought to Scotland.
    I've read a lot of RLS and he had fuckall to do with Brigadoonism. However I'm a BIG fan of Anglosplainers teaching us about Scotland. Keep up the good work.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,581

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    Good to know the authorities have responded to my request a few weeks ago on PB to put more of this in the public domain :wink:
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    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    Does his best Jezza impression....I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was Russia.
    You can rely on Jezza to take up cudgels on behalf of the 0.01% likelihood outcome....
    If Jezza had been at Pearl Harbor I wonder if he would have said " I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was the Japanese"
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Others have pointed out the note of caution that needs to be struck, with the past vote recall for Remain having remorselessly crept up.
    This can, of course, be the effect that has been noted in political polling where people mentally edit their own memories to having voted for "the right" result last time (so there may be some people who voted Leave have decided it was a mistake and want to remember having voted Remain instead), but that's an assumption that would have to be spelt out specifically and may or may note be sound in any case.

    2 - A cohort effect that doesn't change as we age and produces a change in overall outlook as the young age and become a larger and larger segment of society and the older generation with different opinions die off. Gay rights seems to be an example in this area; those who supported gay rights overall in youth seem to have maintained their stance into middle age.

    There have been indications that Brexit opinion appears to be a cohort effect rather than an age-change effect, and Curtice's findings indicate that this is not only the case, but cohort strengths (age-wise) are hardening.
    yes, the cohort effect of Gen X and Millennial being pro-Remain is seemingly very strong. The research seems to bode very badly indeed for those who wish to isolate us from the world.
    People aged 60 and upwards in 2016 voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 41 years earlier. Peoples' views frequently change over their lifetimes,
    Where is your evidence that the change effect is continuing? Rather, the meagre longitudinal evidence that we have suggests that it has been replaced by a cohort effect (which was @Andy_Cooke 's OP).
    There's no evidence on which one could form a conclusion at this stage.

    Up till now, the evidence from Nat Cen surveys, which track age cohorts over long periods of time, has been that people become more hostile to immigration, and more eurosceptic as they get older, but that may of course change.
    Not so. Andy has already shown you the evidence, hence his OP. You could reasonably argue that he lacks sufficient evidence, but that is not the same thing. Rather, your post presents as wishful thinking.
    Take the beam out of your own eye, first, before accusing others of wishful thinking.

    I've produced evidence that people have changed their opinions over the course of a lifetime. You have not refuted it.
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    I'm unsure that England makes up many of the stereotypes of Scotland that you see on display throughout your lovely country.

    Unless it was during a particularly extreme period of self loathing, I don't think it was the Jocks, Paddys or Taffs who created the main stereotypes of themselves as respectively mean, stupid and thieves.
    That is not what I meant, as well you know. Still, it's interesting that the negative stereotypes are the ones that you automatically jump on.

    I prefer the Scotland of a red-headed piper standing in a Glen, whilst locals dance in a ceilidh. Meanwhile, in the local town, some wise people are sitting down to work out how Scotland's next success in science and engineering as someone at the bar quotes Burns.

    But if you only want to see the negatives ...

    (I could have added Nessie in there, or kilts.)
    An authentic Brigadoonist, as I live and breath.
    So anyone saying how great your country is (and I do, frequently - I even praised Glasgow recently after a couple of walks through it) is a 'Brigadoonist', and the only stereotypes that matter are negative ones.

    You appear to have issues. And the 'English' isn't one of them ...

    And before you decry 'brigadoonist'; you might want to consider how much money the works and mythologies of the likes of Walter Scott or R.L. Stevenson have brought to Scotland.
    I've read a lot of RLS and he had fuckall to do with Brigadoonism. However I'm a BIG fan of Anglosplainers teaching us about Scotland. Keep up the good work.
    Great sentence. You managed a rare feat of being able to sound chippy, superior and vaguely nationalist/racist all at the same time. Well done, Corbyn could learn a thing or two from you!
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Just when you think Labour can't make this worse, they send Shami Chakrabarti to do a radio interview.

    It makes me sad that a major political party with a rich history has become such a toxic mess.

    It makes me angry that people are not taking action to stop the rot. And it is now so clear that it is rotting from the head. Yesterday's proposed 'preface' put that beyond any doubt.

    I agree. Many people are crying out for a sensible alternative to the current government. At the moment there is not a credible option. Some people (Carlotta perhaps) rather like that
    What a bizarre comment. I have consistently bemoaned the state of the opposition especially as it has not caused the government to raise its game.
    My apologies then Carlotta, I must have overlooked them. I suppose my comment was based on your damascene conversion to the cause of Leave, and your "tough shit" comments relating to the convenient fact that neither of the main parties are offering a proper voice for the 48% who voted against the madness known as Brexit
    The Lib Dems did - but they weren't voted for in significant numbers. What alternative do you suggest?

    And I've never had a 'Damascene conversion to the cause of Leave'. I just haven't lost my respect for 'democracy'.
    It is frustrating on here that it is somehow impossible to have voted remain but want the result to be respected. Even though I voted remain my belief has always been that the negotiation should always have been from No deal, moving towards a deal rather than the other way around. I don’t see how this is any way controversial but clearly having voted remain I should want some sort of shadow deal that dupes all those with the temerity to vote for Brexit
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    Does his best Jezza impression....I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was Russia.
    You can rely on Jezza to take up cudgels on behalf of the 0.01% likelihood outcome....
    If Jezza had been at Pearl Harbor I wonder if he would have said " I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was the Japanese"
    A degree of reticence never shown towards the actions of Israel.....
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    Anorak said:
    If that happened in the North of England we'd just put on our big coats.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited September 2018

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    Good to know the authorities have responded to my request a few weeks ago on PB to put more of this in the public domain :wink:
    Listening to the very detailed explanation by the Met with photographic evidence it makes you proud of our forensic scientists, police and security services.

    It is absolutely amazing and would expect this to have big consequences for Russia
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:
    If that happened in the North of England we'd just put on our big coats.
    When I were a lad I might - might - have put on a vest under my shirt. Coats were reserved for the *really* bad weather.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,581

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    Good to know the authorities have responded to my request a few weeks ago on PB to put more of this in the public domain :wink:
    Listening to the very detailed explanation by the Met with photographic evidence it makes you proud of our forensic scientists, police and security services.

    It is absolutely amazing and would expect this to have big consequences for Russia
    Just read it - agreed, very impressive. I wish I could agree with your last sentence however - Russia will just deny it all and shrug it off.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,337
    On topic: I can't help but feel we're in a bit of a vicious cycle. We, and moderate politicians allowed anti-politis to take root. Us by dressing up what should've been fairly civilised disagreements as great wars, politicians by failing to make their case to people and not realising how certain things look outside the real world. The result? People have turned to populists who may be right about the flaws of their opponents, but are utter frauds on a far bigger scale than those they condemn - and who actively promote the anti-politics ideas that brought them succes. That then means trust is eroded further as the populists blame their failures on the establishment or the system.

    Brexit is a great example. People voted for it because they were discontent with a failing status quo. Fair enough. But the campaign was led by people who felt they needed to stir up discontent with our political structures and continued to do so after they'd won - "we've had enough of experts" quickly became "enemies of the people".

    Corbyn is the same. He initially won because, frankly speaking, his opponents were rubbish and moderate, traditional Labour was utterly exhausted and out of ideas. Fair enough. But he has his own well documented failings and puts forward blatant nonsenses, which then when they're brought up, he and his supporters blame on smears from a corrupt establishment (conveniently forgetting the fact they're the masters, at least on the left, now). If he becomes PM and is crap, and none of his policies work to solve the ills he promised to stop, the same thing will happen and faith in politicians will diminish further.

    We're on a dark path.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1037279731450826752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1037279731450826752

    Crown Prosecution Service says they have enough evidence to charge these two gentlemen.

    Does his best Jezza impression....I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was Russia.
    You can rely on Jezza to take up cudgels on behalf of the 0.01% likelihood outcome....
    If Jezza had been at Pearl Harbor I wonder if he would have said " I think we need to see more evidence before we can say it was the Japanese"
    I have a feeling that Corbyn is going to pick up the gun he shot himself in the foot with yesterday, and direct towards the other foot. Can he be trusted to criticise Russia.

    I’ve still had no-one direct me to somewhere he has written in support of Israel. He stated in the House that he has but I ve been unable to find anything.
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    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    Good to know the authorities have responded to my request a few weeks ago on PB to put more of this in the public domain :wink:
    Listening to the very detailed explanation by the Met with photographic evidence it makes you proud of our forensic scientists, police and security services.

    It is absolutely amazing and would expect this to have big consequences for Russia
    Just read it - agreed, very impressive. I wish I could agree with your last sentence however - Russia will just deny it all and shrug it off.
    I watched it and was fascinated by the expertise.

    And the Met has requested world wide co-operation to bring the accused to justice
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    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    If that happened in the North of England we'd just put on our big coats.
    When I were a lad I might - might - have put on a vest under my shirt. Coats were reserved for the *really* bad weather.
    And yet are known as Anorak :lol:
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    Just a reminder that when Mrs May called a COBRA meeting to deal with Salisbury poisonings Boris Johnson skipped that meeting so he could be photographed writing his resignation letter.

    He's unsuitable to be PM as Corbyn is.
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    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    This will be a boost for former Home Secretary May.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited September 2018
    Venom from Tezza on anti-semitism.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited September 2018

    Just a reminder that when Mrs May called a COBRA meeting to deal with Salisbury poisonings Boris Johnson skipped that meeting so he could be photographed writing his resignation letter.

    He's unsuitable to be PM as Corbyn is.

    Agreed. I'd vote Reckless before Boris these days.
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    Oooh Jeremy Corbyn talking about betting odds/probabilities.
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    Just a reminder that when Mrs May called a COBRA meeting to deal with Salisbury poisonings Boris Johnson skipped that meeting so he could be photographed writing his resignation letter.

    He's unsuitable to be PM as Corbyn is.

    Agreed. I'd vote Reckless before Boris these days.
    I loathe Boris, Andrew Bridgen, and Andrea Jenkyns than I do Mark Reckless.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Sandpit said:

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    That’s a seriously impressive investigation, it’s very good to know that this capability exists.
    The manufacture of the counterfeit Nina Ricci container and packaging shows this was no two-bit gangster operation, but required a well-equipped facility.
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    Charles said:

    Meanwhile, an actual example of people of other nationalities being directly (rather than abstractly) targeted is passing unnoticed.

    https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1037065464130744320

    There is a legitimate argument that there should be a trade off between EU citizen rights in the U.K. and vice versa.. like we would have with Australia or the US

    That is different to what Farage is saying. He is, as is well known, an odious man with unpleasant views
    Who is looking out for the British people who live in the remainder of the EU?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
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    Good one from Corbyn to be fair
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,581

    Sandpit said:

    A lot of detail on the Novichok case here, including a detailed account of the movements of the two suspects:

    http://news.met.police.uk/news/counter-terrorism-police-release-images-of-two-suspects-in-connection-with-salisbury-attack-320534

    That’s a seriously impressive investigation, it’s very good to know that this capability exists.
    The manufacture of the counterfeit Nina Ricci container and packaging shows this was no two-bit gangster operation, but required a well-equipped facility.
    Er... unless it was just bought in a Moscow street market or on a certain well-known online auction site. Apparently fake perfumes are not unheard of.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Good one from Corbyn to be fair

    TM getting monstered.
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    tlg86 said:

    Although, the movement towards people remembering voting remain is interesting.
    Yes, people thinking it means you can discount the result is wrong. On the contrary it probably means other polls are giving too much weight to people who say they voted Leave.

    It's the same as the vanishing Lib Dem effect that led to the Lib Dems being overstated during the 2010-2015 parliament.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    Good one from Corbyn to be fair

    TM getting monstered.
    I wouldn't go that far
This discussion has been closed.