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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson: Main focus for LAB in North East is winning

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  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JackW said:


    Zeva David - Phhhoooaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

    Jack! You are meant to be resting! Turn the TV off and step away from the remote control!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Anorak said:

    tim said:

    @Anorak

    This is the point when the journalists realise what they were largely responsible for

    London Assembly ‏@LondonAssembly 24m
    The London Assembly seeks advice from chief medical officer on #measles risk to #London - http://goo.gl/wi4kD #news

    GPonline.com ‏@GPonlinenews 51m
    Exclusive: Measles outbreak in London 'inevitable' as GP practices urged to prepare: http://bit.ly/1042olz

    Yep. I live in [a nice part of] London, and there's a preponderance of lentil eating f*cknuts who won't vaccinate little Tarquin or Amelie "just in case there's something in it" or "I had it when I was little, and I was fine" or most spectacularly of all "they're not even very common illnesses any more". And yes, someone actually - in real life - said the last one to me.

    I can see some radical rethinks on the horizon.
    As is sadly often the case, the public (*) are terrible at risk analysis. When the media shut loudly about something, they jump. Which is bad when the media are more concerned with dramatic headlines and circulation figures than telling the public the truth.

    (*) Including myself in many fields.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    It's all a bit unsettling this Boston business.

    I mean the media coverage, the breathless rolling updates, speculation, listening in to police scanners for morsels. All a bit Black Mirror.

    Think I'll let it settle and read some informed coverage in a decent Sunday paper.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:


    But tim did tell us that Huhne's political career would not be toast

    How many times do we have to deal with this canard? The problem with recycling this myth is that you might put off newer posters from following any tips tim puts up when, in fact, he (along with anyone who followed him) made money on this market.

    I followed tim on his Cabrera tip for the Masters.

    I can tell you, Neil, I shed more tears late on Sunday night than I did during the whole of Wednesday.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    It is difficult to follow tim when he denied at the start that Huhne was going to be toast and then later says he placed bets in a different way.

    You're just making stuff up now. I'm happy for you to post evidence to the contrary but I remember being on the same side of the initial bet as tim and knowing what his position was *before* it paid out.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    "Just to reassure everyone I'm still around, about to leave for Dirty Dick's!"

    The London venue or Amsterdam .... or perchance a little of both !!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tim said:

    @Anorak.

    I can see some radical rethinks on the horizon.

    If we'd made MMR compulsory before school attendance as they do in other countries none of this would have happened.
    Now we're going to have to have mass vaccinations further up the age scale, if London does have an outbreak you won't be able to move for twattish hypocrites trying to get to the front of the queue.

    Selfishly, I'm just pleased I've got my 12-month old vaccinated before the sh*t storm arrives (even though full protection doesn't arrive until the booster's given).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JackW said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan

    "Just to reassure everyone I'm still around, about to leave for Dirty Dick's!"

    The London venue or Amsterdam .... or perchance a little of both !!

    Jack, the ...adventurous chap in the Daily Mail article linked to below, is it you?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2309928/Promiscuous-pensioners-clueless-teens-risky-Soho-run-ins-Welcome-world-SEX-CLINIC.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Eck goes after a 16% strategy..

    The Catholic Church in Scotland will recover from its current troubles and remains at the heart of Scottish life, First Minister Alex Salmond said.

    He's said similar things about 'The' Rangers. With Green finally taking a walk he might even be right.
    Depends on who the new CEO is - given our recent fortunes it will be Peter Risdale :(
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Neil said:

    JackW said:


    Zeva David - Phhhoooaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

    Jack! You are meant to be resting! Turn the TV off and step away from the remote control!
    Neil, I was meant to be away for ten days topping up the David Dickinson but sadly Mrs Jack W has been laid somewhat low by a repeat dose of the illness that dogged our hols some weeks back.

    Does Butlins not want the Scots aristocracy .... I'd even promise to spend a few shillings in the Hawaiian Ballroom bar ....

    Hi De Hi !!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    I followed tim on his Cabrera tip for the Masters.

    One of the best tips we've had here for ages! Even better than my FG to win Meath East at 5/1 ;)
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    The measles / MMR thing is a utterly shocking, an absolute disgrace.

    Makes you think there should be some way of properly holding those responsible accountable.

    And the Government probably needs to act. Perhaps don't make vaccination compulsory, as that's against people's "yoooman rights innit". Just parents and their children shouldn't be allowed in public places unless they choose to get vaccinated. Any public place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The death rate from measles is about 1 in 1000. Swansea has about 800 known cases but the actual number might be slightly higher.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    I assume you greened up on Scott before the play off, giving yourself equal winnings on both?

    Was Scott your other tip? I remembered Cabrera but not the second.

    Whovever it was, I lost on it.

    *nods*
  • Sunil, take care, mate, some of the twitterati still might be linking you to the Boston situation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,118
    On topic, Henry G's article is really interesting - it is a subject I knew nothing about previously.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tim said:

    @anorak.

    Two friends of mine's children have caught measles when too young to be vaccinated from children whose parents refused the vaccination.
    The nurseries involved should not allow unvaccinated children above 12-14 months through the doors,and if they do should be held responsible and subject to being sued for damages.

    Really?! Horrid illness at that age. Hope they both recovered well. Every parent should be made to read Roald Dahl's account of losing his daughter. Very moving:
    http://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/blogs/ojohn/how-dangerous-measles
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    tim said:

    @anorak.

    Two friends of mine's children have caught measles when too young to be vaccinated from children whose parents refused the vaccination.
    The nurseries involved should not allow unvaccinated children above 12-14 months through the doors,and if they do should be held responsible and subject to being sued for damages.

    I'm sorry to hear that, but it does sound rather like an anecdote.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @anorak.

    Two friends of mine's children have caught measles when too young to be vaccinated from children whose parents refused the vaccination.
    The nurseries involved should not allow unvaccinated children above 12-14 months through the doors,and if they do should be held responsible and subject to being sued for damages.

    I'm sorry to hear that, but it does sound rather like an anecdote.
    Anecdote: Noun
    1. A short and amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.
    2. An account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.

    I'm going with (1) on this occasion. Not sure what the point is in making that up.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Avery

    No, my other tip was Snedeker who dropped a shot on the last and cost us the place money.

    What I mean is, I had £50 e/w on Cabrera at 25/1, as the tournament came down to the last two I put £600 on Scott at evens to guarantee similar payouts on each.

    Oh you hedged.

    Why didn't you say so?

    I would have understood immediately.

    p.s. I didn't bet on the Masters. I just watched with fury as your selections moved up the leaderboard.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Chechnya and the Boston bombing: link, if established, would be unprecedented

    If Chechens perpetrated attack, it would be first outside Russia by militants from former Soviet republic":

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/boston-bombing-link-chechnya-unprecedented
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Anorak said:

    tim said:

    @anorak.

    Two friends of mine's children have caught measles when too young to be vaccinated from children whose parents refused the vaccination.
    The nurseries involved should not allow unvaccinated children above 12-14 months through the doors,and if they do should be held responsible and subject to being sued for damages.

    I'm sorry to hear that, but it does sound rather like an anecdote.
    Anecdote: Noun
    1. A short and amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.
    2. An account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.

    I'm going with (1) on this occasion. Not sure what the point is in making that up.
    Tim and others have a track record of referring to many anecdotes told on here as a 'PB Tory anecdote'. Strangely enough, this is almost always when the anecdote goes against their world view. It is as if these often personal experiences are somehow rendered less worthwhile by this labelling.

    Whilst I have no doubt the story is true and heartfelt, he should understand that other anecdotes can be as heartfelt to the people telling them.

    Perhaps he will stop in future.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,217
    "And what exactly do we call the good folk of County Durham? None of its council press officers had ever heard of a collective term, but at some point in the past they may have been called “Pit Yakkers”."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/you-geordie-mackem-smoggie-1363415

    So what, exactly, are those criticising Cameron, suggesting he call people from County Durham.....?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    "Chechnya and the Boston bombing: link, if established, would be unprecedented

    If Chechens perpetrated attack, it would be first outside Russia by militants from former Soviet republic":

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/boston-bombing-link-chechnya-unprecedented

    Andy

    NP linked to a post by Luke Harding, The Guardian's correspondent in Moscow, on the rolling blog on Boston. These two paragraphs are particularly relevant if a link with 'official' Chechen terrorism is established.

    In recent years, however, the Kremlin and its regional proxies have been battling a different kind of enemy. This new generation of insurgents has an explicitly Islamist goal: to create a radical pan-Caucasian emirate ruled by Islamist law, a sort of Afghanistan under the Taliban. The movement’s leader, Doku Umarov, unveiled this ambitious vision in 2007. He vowed to liberate not only Russia’s Muslim North Caucausus but a large chunk of European Russia.

    Umarov also suggested that devout Muslims should think internationally. His comments, later softened, said: “Today in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Palestine our brothers are fighting. Everyone who attacks Muslims wherever they are are our enemies, common enemies. Our enemy is not Russia only, but everyone who wages war against Islam and Muslims.”
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    ....he should understand that other anecdotes can be as heartfelt to the people telling them.

    Perhaps he will stop in future.

    You've got more chance of seeing a one-legged cat bury a turd on a frozen pond.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    tim said:

    @anorak.

    Two friends of mine's children have caught measles when too young to be vaccinated from children whose parents refused the vaccination.
    The nurseries involved should not allow unvaccinated children above 12-14 months through the doors,and if they do should be held responsible and subject to being sued for damages.

    I'm sorry to hear that, but it does sound rather like an anecdote.
    Anecdote: Noun
    1. A short and amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.
    2. An account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.

    I'm going with (1) on this occasion. Not sure what the point is in making that up.
    Tim and others have a track record of referring to many anecdotes told on here as a 'PB Tory anecdote'. Strangely enough, this is almost always when the anecdote goes against their world view. It is as if these often personal experiences are somehow rendered less worthwhile by this labelling.

    Whilst I have no doubt the story is true and heartfelt, he should understand that other anecdotes can be as heartfelt to the people telling them.

    Perhaps he will stop in future.
    Ah. I see.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    tim said:

    @JosiasJessop.

    When the anecdote is put up as a general view and contradicted by the polling I'll continue to point that out.

    You should stick to trying to determine the media narrative.

    Badly.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    "And what exactly do we call the good folk of County Durham? None of its council press officers had ever heard of a collective term, but at some point in the past they may have been called “Pit Yakkers”."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/you-geordie-mackem-smoggie-1363415

    So what, exactly, are those criticising Cameron, suggesting he call people from County Durham.....?

    Can't believe in that, in an entire article about NE regional nicknames, there's no mention of 'Monkey Hangers'!
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @AndyJS

    Typical bloody Graun. Chechen muj have been in Afpak for ages and they are in Syria now.

    eg http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/lashakr_al_zil_strong_in_afgha.php
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,223
    Luckily for the Chancellor his real mistake was believing our credit rating matter to the public particularly much. Unemployment is much more visible, but that part of the rise people feel is not a switch between economically inactive and unemployed (indeed the other way round would probably be worse) but employed and unemployed, and the change there is 2,000.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,217
    Anorak said:

    "And what exactly do we call the good folk of County Durham? None of its council press officers had ever heard of a collective term, but at some point in the past they may have been called “Pit Yakkers”."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/you-geordie-mackem-smoggie-1363415

    So what, exactly, are those criticising Cameron, suggesting he call people from County Durham.....?

    Can't believe in that, in an entire article about NE regional nicknames, there's no mention of 'Monkey Hangers'!
    The original Monkey Hangers were Scots:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/tees/7827332.stm

    'It's a Victory for Eck!'
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Another blow for hapless Osborne

    Beth Rigby
    Fitch Downgrades UK from AAA to AA+

    So thats Unemployment up.
    Lagarde and the IMF bailing out of Osborne shares.
    Rogoff and Reinhart undermined

    All in a week.

    No wonder he'd prefer to blame a conspiracy.

    No surprise with Fitch, tim.

    Fitch is, after all, owned by the French and there is only so long that they will put up with being in the shadow of les rosboeufs.

    For those wanting to understand why Fitch have rerated then I suggest reading the full Fitch report which accompanied the rating.

    See: http://bit.ly/17Lx7vh

    Key bits:

    The UK's 'AA+' rating is underpinned by its high-income, diversified and flexible economy as well as a high degree of political and social stability. The monetary policy framework as well as sterling's international reserve currency status afford the UK a high degree of financial and economic policy flexibility. Strong civil and policy institutions and a high degree of transparency enhance the predictability of the business and economic policy environment that compares favourably with peers in the 'AA' category.

    Weak economic performance and growth prospects, relatively high levels of private and foreign as well as public debt, along with sizeable twin fiscal and current account deficits, are weaknesses relative to rating peers.


    And prospects for further rating changes:

    RATING SENSITIVITIES
    The Stable Outlook indicates a less than 50% chance of a change in the UK sovereign ratings over the next two years.

    The main factors that could lead to a negative rating action, individually or collectively, are:
    - Failure to stabilise the government debt to GDP ratio over the medium term.
    - Increased threat to macro-financial stability, for example arising from an intensification of the eurozone crisis or an erosion of confidence in the UK's policy commitment to price stability.

    The main factors that could lead to a positive rating action, individually or collectively, are:
    - Stronger economic recovery and rebalancing of the UK economy than currently forecast.
    - Government budget deficits and debt declining at a faster pace than currently projected so that GGGD is on a sustainable path towards 90% of GDP and below.


    All I can say is thank goodness George isn't contemplating a larger government spend and nationwide council house building spree. It wouldn't just be the ratings that fell through the floor but bond yields would start looking like those of the PIIGS.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Now, tim, what is this about the IMF criticising Osborne's fiscal plans?

    You may have missed my earlier post in which I invited you to quote directly from Lagarde's reply to Conway to evidence such criticism.

    I didn't hear back from either you or Ben.

    But all good Tories believe in giving people second chances.

    I await your response.

    It is needed as the attack on Rogoff and Reinhardt collapsed in less than a day.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fitch rates the Uk lower than France ?!

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    "And what exactly do we call the good folk of County Durham? None of its council press officers had ever heard of a collective term, but at some point in the past they may have been called “Pit Yakkers”."

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/you-geordie-mackem-smoggie-1363415

    So what, exactly, are those criticising Cameron, suggesting he call people from County Durham.....?

    Can't believe in that, in an entire article about NE regional nicknames, there's no mention of 'Monkey Hangers'!
    The original Monkey Hangers were Scots:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/tees/7827332.stm

    'It's a Victory for Eck!'
    "But an Aberdeen University study claims the tale originated in Scotland."

    Hartlepool Community College started work on a counter argument, then realised nobody there could spell Monkey. Thank you very much, I'm here all week.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,371
    edited April 2013
    South Shields Statement of Persons Nominated

    http://www.southtyneside.info/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=17167&p=0

    Karen Allen (The Conservative Party Candidate)
    Hugh Annand (Liberal Democrat)
    Lady Dorothy MacBeth Brookes (British National Party)
    Phil Brown (The Independent Socialist Party)
    Thomas Faithful Darwood (Independent)
    Richard Peter Elvin (UK Independence Party (UK I P))
    Howling Laud Hope (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
    Ahmed Khan (Independent)
    Emma Lewell-Buck (Labour Party Candidate)


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lady Dorothy MacBeth Brookes (British National Party)
    Thomas Faithful Darwood (Independent)
    Emma Lewell-Buck (Labour Party Candidate)


    Posh up north !
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    This anecdote isn't going to help too much but there was a rushed out vaccine a few years ago (was it for bird flu?) in response to the latest outbreak and especially pregnant women were advised to have it.

    There had been no track record but there was strong advice by HMG to have it.

    Recently some non-trivial side effects were reported.

    Absolutely no recall now of detail but I remember thinking that a rushed out vaccine surely has risks. And it did vs the risk of contracting the original malady.

    The point? A modest one but that people sometimes rationally or irrationally decide not to do what they are told.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Fitch rates the Uk lower than France ?!

    Yes. Last rating for France was AAA with Negative Outlook in December 2012.

    Says all you need to know about Fitch.

    Standard & Poor is the ICM of credit rating agencies. Fitch is the TNS BMRB. Moody is tim anecdotes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    edited April 2013
    I wonder if all BNP supporters will be happy to be described as "friends of Lady Dorothy"?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    edited April 2013
    or doesn't that exist up north?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,009
    AveryLP said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fitch rates the Uk lower than France ?!

    Yes. Last rating for France was AAA with Negative Outlook in December 2012.

    Says all you need to know about Fitch.

    Standard & Poor is the ICM of credit rating agencies. Fitch is the TNS BMRB. Moody is tim anecdotes.
    Mr Pole I am usually suspicious of french motives, but in this case the rating is justified, the fundamentals just aren't there, especially between the Chancellor's ears.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,217
    Ultimately, the Fitch downgrade is

    a) An embarrassment to a Chancellor who made such a political totem pole of the AAA ratings in the early years of the government

    b) Neither an embarrassment nor likely to change policy in any way, this is the Chancellor we’re talking about

    c) Really only going to be interesting to Westminster hacks at this point; it is utterly, completely, desperately clear how bad economic growth is looking to everyone else

    d) Irrelevant to actual risk of default because of the UK’s independent currency, even if Fitch does acknowledge the existence of the latter.

    e) All of the above

    f) None of the above

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/19/1467582/and-what-took-you-so-long-fitch/
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Many of them - if there are many of them left at all - already are on the QT.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    @tim

    yes sounds right but there were side effects and they were non-trivial AFAIR
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fitch rates the Uk lower than France ?!

    Yes. Last rating for France was AAA with Negative Outlook in December 2012.

    Says all you need to know about Fitch.

    Standard & Poor is the ICM of credit rating agencies. Fitch is the TNS BMRB. Moody is tim anecdotes.
    Mr Pole I am usually suspicious of french motives, but in this case the rating is justified, the fundamentals just aren't there, especially between the Chancellor's ears.
    I am not diasagreeing, Mr Brooke, at least up to the penultimate clause.

    It is a fair assessment reflecting mostly reduced growth expectations consequent upon the UK's exposure to the Eurozone and the resulting persistence of our high debt and deficit levels.

    Still there are more important things for George to weep over.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,009
    tim said:

    @TOPPING

    Swine flu wasn't it, the Daily Mail ran a series of unfounded scare stories about that one too.

    I think HMG ran the biggest unfounded scare story on swine flu.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,371
    edited April 2013
    Addresses given:

    Con: South Sheilds
    LD: Welwyn Hatfield
    BNP: Tynemouth
    Soc: South Shields
    Ind: Southend East
    UKIP: Houghton and Sunderland South
    Loony: NE Hampshire
    Khan: South Shields
    Lab: Jarrow
  • On Topic - Thank you Henry for very informative & interesting post!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Uk has formally challenged the FTT at the ECJ..

  • Off Topic - Thank you again Yokel, for your professional insights and great reportage re: the Boston Marathon bombing.

    NPR has been broadcasting non-stop on this story since early this AM. Turns out one of their reporters (forget which one) actually knows one of the (alleged) bombers. He was good friends with her son (or nephew, forget which). She says he seemed like a great kid, very popular & personable. Everyone who knows him is totally in shock.

    What's equally incredible right now, is a major metropolitican area in near-total lockdown. Something that did NOT happen to same degree in NYC on & immediately after 9/11.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    @Alanbrooke

    there certainly was lots of noise. Obviously every govt fears a "Govt inaction causes 1,000s of deaths" headline..
  • Think this is still one of the best sources for what's what:

    http://live.boston.com/Event/Live_blog_Explosion_in_Copley_Square

    Re: social media, report that Cambridge (Mass) Police Dept have stopped tweeting for the time being. Because they do NOT want to give info to the fugative terrorist(s) in case they're monitoring.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    @SeaShantyIrish

    yes incredible. The definition of terror. One guy and they lock down a city.

    as to the bomber/suspect, all I'm waiting to hear is that he "kept himself to himself".
  • On lighter note, last night attended monthly meeting of 46th legislative district Democats in northeast Seattle, where the entertainment was a candidate forum. On the ballot this year are (officailly) nonpartisan races for Mayor of Seattle plus four at-large seats (the only kind there are) on Seatle City Council. Also race for City Attorney and for King County Council, which IS elected by districts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,445
    Mr. Brooke, wasn't that the one where the CMO said we were having a pandemic?

    I think that was after SARS and bird flu.

    Mr. Irish, I second that. Mr. Y0kel's a top chap.

    F1: plan to do the pre-qualifying piece around half 10 tomorrow morning. P3 is 9-10am. Intend to offer a tip, if possible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    @tim

    quick question - are you a composite of a lot of people because you resoutely keep on-topic politics anti-Cons when, given events, whether it be Boston or anything else it would take an almost inhuman dedication not to veer off?

    Or is it well-known that you are indeed a committee tag team and as a newbie I am not yet aware?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    sorry train arriving good evening all
  • Boston Globe live blog reporting that police in Cambridge are planning controlled demolition in house where alleged terror brothers lived.

    Yes, locking down major city is extreme. But seems it's warranted based on what law enforcement knows right now. BUT how long can lock down be maintained?
  • JackW said:

    Obama should order in NCIS to sort out Boston problem ....

    Zeva David - Phhhoooaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

    Actually, best investigative team would be:

    Boston Blackie + Hopalong Cassidy + Fu Manchu + girls & boys from "Numbers" + The Closer (if any suspects arrested alive)

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tim said:

    rather obvious if you think what the word pandemic means.

    An excess of le creuset?
  • Re: the West, Texas fertilizer plant explosion:

    1. Plant was supposed to be recertified, according to TX state law, back in 2004. Never happened. Why not, Gov Perry?

    2. Of 12 confirmed fatalities (in town of approx 2k population) 11 were first responders. Mostly members of the town's volunteer fire department. Don't know if you have VFDs in UK, but they are found in small communities across America, kind of places that lack budget for full-time, professional fire-fighters.
  • from BG live blog:

    RT @JasonOliveiraTV: Haunting picture of 8 yr old Martin Richard and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev at Boston Marathon http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BIOdGe5CYAEgFEi.jpg
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ftt story now on sky - huge impact on UK relationship with EU ...
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @tim about swine flu anecdote alert:

    A friend of mine died of it, having contracted it the same time as I did. I was bed-ridden for three weeks. They eventually switched off my friend's ventilator two months later.

    I agree with almost everything you write - although I hesitate about absolute compulsion - but I think that the issues around vaccines for unpredicted flu variants are a bit different to MMR.

    RIP Sam.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Look who's going to be lined up as a scapegoat if the Tories do badly on May 2nd

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
    BREAKING: A second major credit rating agency, Fitch, has stripped the UK of its AAA status in another blow for George Osborne.

    Alex Belardinelli ‏@abelardinelli 1m
    Fitch downgrades UK credit rating, blaming "weaker economic & fiscal outlook" & "weak growth performance of UK"


    The inept tea party tory spinners won't like that. ;^)


    'Triumph for the incompetent fops!'


    LOL
  • reports that 15 police officers hospitalized due to last night's gunfight etc with terror suspects. One officer killed in line of duty: Sean Collier, age 26, of MIT campus police.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BNP took 6.5% in South Shields in 2010. They'll be lucky to get 2% this time.
  • PS housekeeping: your's truly can log in with minimal difficulty via internet connection at local branch library. HOWEVER, every time I try to log in using home office computer, get error message that says (paraphrase) that log in name is 14 characters too long. SeaShantyIrish = 18 characters! Talk about yer Catch 22!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    6 Scottish coal mines to close with loss of 590 jobs.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Is with his ridiculous boasts about growth much of Osbornes political problem re the ratings agencies is simply a product of his own hyperbolic statements.

    Osborne placed too much emphasis on credit ratings and should have focussed instead on borrowing costs.

    The credit rating agencies, for all their analysis and research, follow rather than determine market pricing. Osborne also inherited an era of lazy rating where a whole bunch of countries, including the UK, should not have been rated at the AAA level. Post financial crisis and, in particular, the criticism of the rating agencies to spot failure points, the trend has been towards more realistic ratings. There are however a lot of powerful and vested interests to upset in rerating sovereign risk and the move to more realistic ratings had therfore to be gradual rather than sudden.

    On growth forecasts, George is not really to blame at all. All countries and economic forecasters predicted a similar exit to the financial crisis to that experienced in prior recessions, This simply hasn't happened and growth outcomes and forecasts have been reduced in all main countries from China to Spain.

    The UK's growth performance under Osborne has been relatively good, outstripping the UK's main UK competitors as it did broadly under Brown. However, George unlike Gordon, has managed to outperform competitors during a period of fiscal consolidation rather than expansion.

    The hawks like Fraser Nelson will be demanding deeper cuts in response to lower growth but George is right, in my opinion, to take a holding position on deficit reduction while looking to see whether the growth downturn persists.

    We only need to note that upturns in oil and gas production and banking services to pre-crisis levels would see the current UK economy growing at a quite acceptable rate. Oil and Gas looks due to recover in late 2013 (following targeted investment) and banking should recover mid 2014 following sector recapitalisation and restructure.

    So Osborne isn't taking a deficit reduction holiday on a whim and a prayer: there is sound reasoning behind a belief that growth will return in the latter two years of the parliamentary term.

    It may suit your political aims to undermine Osborne's reputation but an objective and balanced view would demand more time for assessment. The UK economy is not booming but equally it is not crashing like most of the Eurozone. There is reasonable cause for optimism mixed with strong downside risks. Decision time will be 2015.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,532

    PS housekeeping: your's truly can log in with minimal difficulty via internet connection at local branch library. HOWEVER, every time I try to log in using home office computer, get error message that says (paraphrase) that log in name is 14 characters too long. SeaShantyIrish = 18 characters! Talk about yer Catch 22!!!

    I count 14...
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @tim

    Damn my inability to find the edit button here. I meant to type "I agree with everything you write about MMR".

    But there was no vaccine for that flu strain, which was not widespread in the UK. It only impacted a very small number of people but, like measles complications, that is little consolation if it is down your way.

    Oddly enough, it has just occurred to me - I am in my 50's - that I don't think I ever had/was immunised against measles myself. I am wondering whether I should have a jab. My kids, for whom we had to make the decision right at the peak of the scare - which was credible to the non-specialist at the time - did have the MMR jab, but it did require a degree of thought given the state of knowledge at the time. Our wonderful GP took half an our to review the literature with us.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,532
    pbr2013 said:

    @tim

    Damn my inability to find the edit button here.

    If you put your mouse over your post, a cog will appear in the top right. Click that to edit!
  • Terror suspects' aunt now running off her mouth to press. Yet another conspiracy theory hatching.
  • RobD said:

    PS housekeeping: your's truly can log in with minimal difficulty via internet connection at local branch library. HOWEVER, every time I try to log in using home office computer, get error message that says (paraphrase) that log in name is 14 characters too long. SeaShantyIrish = 18 characters! Talk about yer Catch 22!!!

    I count 14...
    My finger slipped. Point is, perhaps OGH can find some freaking system that actually works? Or it this just part of the Evil Genius of Bill Gates????

  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,532

    RobD said:

    PS housekeeping: your's truly can log in with minimal difficulty via internet connection at local branch library. HOWEVER, every time I try to log in using home office computer, get error message that says (paraphrase) that log in name is 14 characters too long. SeaShantyIrish = 18 characters! Talk about yer Catch 22!!!

    I count 14...
    My finger slipped. Point is, perhaps OGH can find some freaking system that actually works? Or it this just part of the Evil Genius of Bill Gates????

    Maybe something weird is going on where your login name is already entered into the field, and you are typing it twice?

    Beyond that I couldn't say. Perhaps try a different browser.

  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Thanks. People keep telling me that but it doesn't work with a windows box or a BB. I'll see if it works on the mac when I get home.

    Cheers.
  • RT @jrebosglobe: CT State Police looking for second car: 1999 Green Honda Civic with Massachusetts license plate of 116 GC7.

    Jack W, please let us know if you see this vehicle loitering near yer pie stand! And aren't you glad that Jacobites appear to be blameless on THIS occassion?


  • Maybe something weird is going on where your login name is already entered into the field, and you are typing it twice?

    Beyond that I couldn't say. Perhaps try a different browser.



    Different browser good idea, will try it, thanks!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,371
    David was back in South Shields to campaign with Emma Double Surname

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 72,103
    If the Boston terrorists do turn out to be Chechen nationalists then a big own-goal by them, next time Putin sends in the tanks to restore order, the US will turn a blind eye!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When are postal votes sent out?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,371
    For South Shields

    "Postal voting packs will be delivered from Tuesday, 23 April. If you have not received your pack by Friday, 26 April call the elections office on 0191 424 7230."
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    MichaelCrick
    Eric Pickles makes big climb-down to rebels on home extensions. Now bigger extensions will still need permission if neighbours object.

    So what was the point of all that then?

    Sheer incompetence as usual.

    Hardly a surprise after Pickles also made a shambolic mess of his "bonfire of the quangos".

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,285
    @pbr2013

    re swine flu - much more elegant and persuasively put than me.

    and @tim as for the isolated figure of "309 deaths" I'm pretty sure that a similar number of peope die in the UK every year falling off ladders but the govt is right not to introduce "ladder safety measures."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 72,103
    Rasmussen political ideology

    In political terms, is Barack Obama very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
    •Very liberal 38%
    •Somewhat liberal 29%
    •Moderate 24%
    •Somewhat conservative 4%
    •Very conservative 1%
    •Not sure 4%

    In political terms, is Joe Biden very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
    •Very liberal 31%
    •Somewhat liberal 37%
    •Moderate 23%
    •Somewhat conservative 2%
    •Very conservative 1%
    •Not sure 6%
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "In political terms, is Barack Obama very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"

    Hmmm. He might be "very liberal" in the same way that the FDP are "very liberal", ie. he's centre-right.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:
    Lest we forget ! Harold Wilson won 4 elections. He had a small private ceremony.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:
    According to this, Francis maude arranged Thatcher funeral. All last week, PBTories had been claiming, all the planning had been done by the last government.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @HYUFD

    'Yesterday, Labour sources insisted no decision had been taken on post- 2015 spending.'

    Still waiting for the results of focus groups & polls.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    'You are the most annoying man in politics': Phone-in caller shreds Ed Balls as he tries to deny wanting to go on another Labour spending spree

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311562/Ed-Balls-told-You-annoying-man-politics.html

    If you think the tories have a problem with Osborne,then labour have a real problem with balls.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'Lest we forget ! Harold Wilson won 4 elections. He had a small private ceremony.'

    How could we forget, you've made the same point every day for the past 10 days.
This discussion has been closed.