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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplac
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.
The SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the GE2015, Labour only gained fewer than 10,000.
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Ah, Jeremy Corbyn. Makes the SNP look pro-British.
Yes, Labour's net change in votes in Scotland in 2017 was pretty minimal. But the net change glosses over that, by common consent, Labour suffered MASSIVE losses to the Conservatives in Scotland, and logically the only way those losses could've been compensated for was by gains from the SNP.
The final Scottish YouGov of 2017 (which came pretty close to the real result) had 21% of Labour's 2015 vote defecting to the Tories, but made up for by them gaining 13% of the 2015 SNP vote (which, in real numbers, is a heck of a lot considering the SNP had half of all voters in 2015):- https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bgdq83jllw/TimesResults_170605_Scotland_WestminsterVI_LeadersApproval_Independence_W.pdf
And it's also backed up by Labour's patterns in individual seats. Their vote generally went up quite a lot in 2017 in independence-voting areas, while falling in heavily No-voting areas (admittedly Edinburgh South is an exception to that).
Primary teachers are the frontline of social work these days. First-tier councils are so underfunded and understaffed that their children's services departments are perennially fire-fighting - and that means they miss most reports of concern. Sometimes the only way a real, life-threatening problem will be acted upon is when a primary teacher or head repeatedly harasses children's services until they do something (yes, I am thinking of a real example here... one involving a knife).
Over and above that, though, seeing the kid in his home environment is the fastest way to find out where he/she has got to developmentally - they'll be comfortable and can demonstrate what they can do with their toys, books etc. I hear the comment about "invasive" but that's the last word I'd use of any reception teacher I've ever known!
At any point we are only a few days from another Baby P. It will happen again sooner or later.
I doubt this will ever help prevent a Baby P-style case. It might well flag up other issues, though.
But again I wonder if this is just a Cambridgeshire thing, or if other counties / regions do it?
But the Tories gained votes there, though only 1000 or so.
So taking the 323k additional Tories and splitting them gives 5489 per constituency - But that's what Murray went up by roughly (+ a few Lab)
Conclusion:
Extra voters came out the woodwork for Murray in Edinburgh South, they'd have probably voted Tory elsewhere but decided to vote Labour as the best way to stop the SNP there.
Existing Tory voters kept voting Tory.
p.s. same point as Pulpstar's
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1039510795942391809
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1039511194791362562
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1039511520261038080
Either SNP voters switched to Tories (There may have been a couple of fishermen in Banff that did this), but 'broadly' it is a nonsense I think.
There's plenty of people that come out when one's side is perceived to be doing well (SNP 15 voters) but then stay at home the next time, and a different bunch headed out next time (Ruth's new Tories). So one of the pieces of perceived wisdom/apparent common sense I've encountered non voters don't vote isn't actually correct.
The non voters in GE15 and GE17 aren't the same people.
Perhaps perception that you're going to create an earthquake is key to getting out fickle voters.
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1039334058084458497
India are 32 on Betfair.
I can feel it in my waters.
That seems unusual to me, normally they're miles behind on overs.
SCons are a very motivated voter base.
The Conservatives have become the default party of unionism, which is a bit of a problem for Labour until new themes become more dominant in Scottish politics.
https://twitter.com/DelMody/status/1039495616638926848
Five wickets left.
If they get close at the end there could be an exciting run chase/collapse.
Root 6.0 overs 17 for 0 at 2.83
Bring on Root to bring the scoring rate down.
Well, it's over; it was about half an hour with one of his class teachers and another teacher. We had a nice chat about what would happen this year (which we had already been told at an evening event), and they watched him play with his toys and went up to see his bedroom.
All slightly bizarre, but it may have helped. Somehow.
The new ball is critical now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-45481438
Clearly Tarantino fans.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1039531114304561153
He's the anti-Boris.
Pant's on fire.
Wouldn’t opening the UK up to global competition spell disaster for British manufacturing?
No, quite the opposite.
Most British ‘manufacturing’ is, in fact, high-tech and, in some cases, services-oriented – the type of business sectors that should flourish post-Brexit. And, many of these businesses already compete successfully with non-EU competitors and export globally – eg, JLR, Rolls Royce, and JCB.