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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next gene

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    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    Unemployed horticulture student ?

    Why isn't he picking strawberries and grapes ?
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    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
    I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.

    Ah, I see you have corrected it.

    Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
    In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
    True, although not germane to the original question.

    Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
    I miss Charles Kennedy. Seems from a different age now. Decent, gentle humour, good with the public and so on.
    Indeed so. This cartoon from Steve Bell (of all people) was a rather wonderful valedictory:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2015/jun/02/steve-bell-on-charles-kennedy-cartoon
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    justin124 said:

    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
    High achievers - prime ministers and presidents are such by definition - lack empathy with those that don't have their self motivation. Major and Callaghan saw reversals in their fortunes early on in life, which probably kept them more grounded with normal people.
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    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Moaning Minnies-gate? That was perhaps one of the first telltale signs that the Thatcher magic was just beginning to wane.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    justin124 said:

    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
    To see a true class act with the public I recommend the Robert Kennedy documentary series. His outings with voters, especially the working class, like miners, and the poor agricultural workers, were amazing.


    Only on Netflix at the moment I think.
    Although of course his determination for close interaction with the voters did have a highly unfortunate end result.
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    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
    I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.

    Ah, I see you have corrected it.

    Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
    In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
    True, although not germane to the original question.

    Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
    I miss Charles Kennedy. Seems from a different age now. Decent, gentle humour, good with the public and so on.
    Indeed so. This cartoon from Steve Bell (of all people) was a rather wonderful valedictory:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2015/jun/02/steve-bell-on-charles-kennedy-cartoon
    :+1:
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?

    28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
    How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
    Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
    I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.

    Ah, I see you have corrected it.

    Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
    In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
    True, although not germane to the original question.

    Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
    Indeed so. Cartwright and Barnes both lost in 1992 - the latter quite narrowly at Greenwich. Had he stood that year, Owen might well have held on to Devonport.
    His high profile might have helped, but it was far from a gimme. I'm assuming the Lib Dems wouldn't have stood against him (a la Greenwich) but Labour won by a very comfortable margin and it's hard to believe that was all a personal vote for Owen.
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    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
    To see a true class act with the public I recommend the Robert Kennedy documentary series. His outings with voters, especially the working class, like miners, and the poor agricultural workers, were amazing.


    Only on Netflix at the moment I think.
    Although of course his determination for close interaction with the voters did have a highly unfortunate end result.
    Yep. Just got to that bit in the film. It is a lost world as far as the way candidates interacted with people and went about doing speeches and so on. Whenever he speaks at a podium the stage is just full of people, half of them journalists, the rest just punters. Sometimes you can hardly see him for the crush of people.
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    NEW THREAD

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
    To see a true class act with the public I recommend the Robert Kennedy documentary series. His outings with voters, especially the working class, like miners, and the poor agricultural workers, were amazing.


    Only on Netflix at the moment I think.
    Although of course his determination for close interaction with the voters did have a highly unfortunate end result.
    Yep. Just got to that bit in the film. It is a lost world as far as the way candidates interacted with people and went about doing speeches and so on. Whenever he speaks at a podium the stage is just full of people, half of them journalists, the rest just punters. Sometimes you can hardly see him for the crush of people.
    It is a lost world partly because of what happened to him and a large number of other high profile people in the late sixties and through the seventies.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    FF43 said:

    Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):

    https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561

    I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
    Moaning Minnies-gate? That was perhaps one of the first telltale signs that the Thatcher magic was just beginning to wane.
    I think Thatcher came across an ex miner, possibly, who launched into a tale of woe about there being nothing in the neighborhood. She told him to get training. I tried to Google the incident but I couldn't find it. The actual advice from both Thatcher and Macron is reasonable. You have to make the best of the situation you're in and it's better than doing nothing. It comes across as callous from a politician however.
This discussion has been closed.