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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will b
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted
One of the great jobs of returning from a longish holiday is reviewing how things have changed while you’ve been away and the biggest move over the past three weeks is how the Chequers Brexit plan is gathering support. Maybe the Mail was following rather than leading. TMay’s big gamble might just succeed.
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Although the B word was mentioned, so it will probably turn out like all the others for the past year or so...
Have you seen the assortment of clowns, dipsticks and lunatics lining up to replace her?
On the Brexiteers:
Ten days ago, members of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs were feeling upbeat about their prospects, believing the tide was turning away from Theresa May’s Chequers deal and towards their preference for a harder Canada-style Brexit. And then came the week from hell.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/brexiteer-mps-say-theyre-in-despair-after-their-challenge
Sajid Javid, the home secretary, has suggested to colleagues that he wants to introduce limits and visas for EU citizens after Brexit.
In a move likely to cause tit-for-tat retaliation by Europe, the Home Office informed cabinet ministers last week of its intention to copy the existing migration system used to determine non-EU migration and apply it to Europeans who arrive in Britain after December 2020.
The new system, which is still being agreed across government, will be sold as a “global” migration system, ending free movement for the EU.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3712652c-bac1-11e8-9e6e-515c1ae38369
I didn’t watch it as I was at the cinema watching the Mamma Mia 2 sing a long version.
If May successfully agrees an EU trade deal by the end of 2020 then perhaps the risk of a Johnson leadership will be reduced, she can resign with dignity, and the Party can choose a new leader with a couple of years to sell themselves to the electorate.
But if the Brexiteers do accidentally trigger a vote of no confidence next week or next year, the PM is toast.
I suspect Corbyn favours a harder Brexit than May and the ERG will ally with him.
No reason therefore why, assuming she retains some sort of support from the Tory Party and the House of Commons why she shouldn’t go until after 2022. After the GE that year’ll see.
She is also polling a lot better than Brown was 2 years into his premiership despite similar pressure to dump him in favour of a younger model like David Miliband and of course he did lead Labour in 2010, an election resulting in a hung parliament. Unless anti Boris MPs can be sure they could get something like a Javid v Hancock final 2 sent to the members they will also not want to risk Boris or Mogg getting on the ballot paper
https://twitter.com/business/status/1041942283355082752
On the other hand....
Some 85 percent of the academics said the U.K. would leave the EU as planned on March 29, and almost three quarters thought there’s unlikely to be a second referendum on Brexit. Pressure is mounting on opposition Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn to support one, though fewer than a third of respondents thought the party would change its stance.
Also many expat Brits already go to work/live in countries that require paperwork to work/settle. Why this fetishisation of the EU?
Ta.
Australia: 1,277,474
USA: 758,919
Canada: 674,371
Spain: 381,025
New Zealand: 313,850
South Africa: 305,660
Ireland: 253,605
France: 172,806
Germany: 96,938
Channel Islands: 73,030
http://uk.businessinsider.com/british-expats-most-population-destinations-2015-9
So, of the top 10 expat destinations, 6 already require paperwork, one will be unaffected by any immigration change and three will be affected.
This 'people who want to go and work in Europe' figures more highly in some minds than it does in the minds of expats.
If you want your kind of Brexit come to the UK otherwise shut up.
Explain to me how you think May will sign up to the NI backstop when the DUP will no-confidence her if she does? You don't get a prize for just saying it will be 'fudged'.
For one thing, the DUP's position might be somewhat more flexible than you think, especially when the reality of a no-deal hits them.
I wonder, it's frightening
Leaving now, is that the right thing?
I wonder, it scares me
But who the the hell am I if I don't even try
I'm not a coward
Oh no, I'll be strong
One chance in a lifetime
Yes I will take it, it can't go wrong
If Archer is so keen for a Hard Brexit/Corbyn government then he should move to the UK.
Otherwise he’s as yellow as the Australian rugby/cricket shirt.
I recommend a week off PB to go shoe shopping
Man up and move to the UK.
Again, if you can come up with a scenario for an NI backstop feel free. But my position is based on analysis. No progress has been made at all in nine months. The EU are still talking about de-dramatising an Irish Sea border. The two sides are miles apart.
I’m spending the week in Germany thanks to Brexit.
Javid has proposed applying the same immigration system we have globally to the EU. This is characterised as an attack on the EU which is worthy of “tit for tat retaliation”
That’s simply not true.
Either we agree a deal on visa rights with the EU in which case we have a bespoke arrangement with them
Or we don’t in which case we apply the global approach
But characterising a move from one to the other is not an attack worthy of retaliation. It’s the product of the failure of the EU and the U.K. to agree a deal that is attractive to both sides
I don’t know if it’s poor journalism or sloppy subbing or unconscious bias but in any case it’s unworthy of the Times
Even Australian Labor leader Bill Shorten is more Ed Miliband than Jeremy Corbyn
avoid Frankfurt :-)
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pssremovals.com/blog/survey-reveals-australia-new-zealand-top-countries-britons-want-move-to-brexit/amp/
https://www.movehub.com/blog/top-10-countries-brits-choose/
Would the chairman of the 1922 committee check with all the letter senders that they still mean it? Is it common knowledge amongst Tory MPs as to the number submitted or does nobody know?
Not even Jeremy Corbyn could imagine proposing a system where a bunch of ex-trade union bosses set wages and conditions for huge chunks of the economy without employers having any ability to negotiate their own terms and wages. Here, the Liberals fully support this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/livingabroad/april2018#do-british-citizens-migrate-to-the-eu-more-or-less-than-other-eu-countries-citizens
Bonn's even more boring than Frankfurt. Do a runner and spend the day at Burg Eltz then visit a vineyard on the Rhine or Mosel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eltz_Castle
There's certainly been a notable increase in British exports during the last two years:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbh/mret
I should fit right in.
unless youre planning to mount a putsch from a beerhall and declare yourself dictator theres not much going for it
So 20% of UK emigrants might be affected by this - and ±75% are already used to work permits / visa restrictions when they do emigrate. A bigger issue in the minds of the Tuscan second home owning commentariat than in ordinary voters, I suspect.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7207106/oktoberfest-beer-festival-backlash-sex-clothes/
I made that mistake once
Cant your wife get a paddy passport ?
A bog standard pint glass suits me fine.
I’m going to be like a nun in a whorehouse there.
My guess is that the average retiree in Spain does not own a second home there. Instead, they will have sold their home in the UK to raise the funds to buy a place on the Costa.
Yes, the second home owners of Tuscany will be fine anyway, as you say, but from these stats how many ordinary electricians and plasterers or estate agents for that matter are actually availing themselves of the right to work in the EU? Not that many it appears.
Look at TSE's rather telling groan down thread that he's spending a week in Germany. His words don't seem to me to be leaping off the page with joy and anticipation.
The EU just ain't sexy.
Really does sound like they're very close now.
Wouldn't have believed that at the start of the year.
The argument that the nasty oldies voted to stop the youngsters enjoying the wonders of working in the EU has been shot to pieces, so now the sympathy extends to older people who cant retire there! But they are the people who generally voted Leave, so they obviously aren't that bothered