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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB s

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to be swept away and dismissed.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1nsomnia
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Wide Awake Club
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Fourth like the Liberal Democrats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Roger said:
    She makes Trump sound like a fun guy to have sex with......
  • Roger said:
    That’s given cartoonists so much material....

    On topic, Magic Grandpa is above politics or facts or logic - and long may he remain so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:
    That’s given cartoonists so much material....

    On topic, Magic Grandpa is above politics or facts or logic - and long may he remain so.
    She'd be an advertisers dream. The height of female cool....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Roger said:
    She makes Trump sound like a fun guy to have sex with......
    To be fair, she’s spent the last 20 years trying to think of fun things while having sex!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    RIP Denis Norden:

    ttps://twitter.com/skynews/status/1042282914694737920?s=21

    Well eventually he was going to not be alright on the night.

    RIP.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    "One evening when I was having dinner with my first wife.....I call her that to keep her on her toes...."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    Projecting the polling error from one election onto another is always foolish. But not an activity reserved to PB lefties nevertheless.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    If Labour did win the next election, I imagine the pressure on PLP members, having been nodding dogs for Corbyn up until that point, to go along with his crackpot ideas will be immense. Does depress one a shade.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2018
    Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
  • Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    edited September 2018
    Mike made the point for years that the pollster who had the lowest score for Labour was the most accurate. This changed in 2017 when Corbyn and the fear of a May landslide finally got Labour supporters down to the polls in unexpectedly high numbers.

    Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.

    I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.
  • Roger said:

    "One evening when I was having dinner with my first wife.....I call her that to keep her on her toes...."
    And she remained his first wife - for 75 years, he predeceases her.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited September 2018
    and miraculously the Irish border stops being a problem

    the rock and the hard place deicde to go out for a pint and have a laugh

    and NI goes back to being a place only Games of Thrones gives a shit about
  • DavidL said:

    Mike made the point for years that the pollster who had the lowest score for Labour was the most accurate. This changed in 2017 when Corbyn and the fear of a May landslide finally got Labour supporters down to the polls in unexpectedly high numbers.

    Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.

    I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.

    My problem with the phantom surge in GE2017 theory (to prevent a May landslide) is that such high polling numbers of 37-41% for Labour have shown up in the polls ever since.

    It’s the key marginal polling i’d be interested in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Roger said:

    "One evening when I was having dinner with my first wife.....I call her that to keep her on her toes...."
    And she remained his first wife - for 75 years, he predeceases her.
    I hadn't known that when in the RAF he and Eric Sykes had stumbled upon Belsen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775

    DavidL said:

    Mike made the point for years that the pollster who had the lowest score for Labour was the most accurate. This changed in 2017 when Corbyn and the fear of a May landslide finally got Labour supporters down to the polls in unexpectedly high numbers.

    Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.

    I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.

    My problem with the phantom surge in GE2017 theory (to prevent a May landslide) is that such high polling numbers of 37-41% for Labour have shown up in the polls ever since.

    It’s the key marginal polling i’d be interested in.
    We normally don't like our governments. It is not unusual for the opposition to poll better. Indeed Labour being behind, even fractionally, more than a year after the election is ominous for them. Add in the huge negativity that surrounds Brexit in the electronic media in particular and I think it is even more ominous, especially if an ok deal can be achieved.
  • On topic, I suspect that if Labour voters sense there’s a genuine chance to change the Government - which is much more likely after it’s been in office for 12 years - then they will turn out.

    The question is whether the turnout is in places like Hackney or Welwyn Hatfield.
  • Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....
  • A lot of fair points from Mike. Also worth noting that there are at least two big and predictable structural changes that'll happen between now and 2022. Brexit is due, and May will go. The latter is not quite a certainty but certainly highly likely - 90%+ in my opinion. By contrast, I'd put the chance of someone else leading Labour at a 2022 GE at 25-30% (which is about the same chance as a major split within Labour, though in that case, Corbyn would continue to lead what's left of it).

    There are so many permutations to the Brexit process, at the key milestones of withdrawal and the end of the transition period that it's pointless listing them here. Suffice to say that they have ample opportunity to enrage and/or satisfy some or all of hard-line Remainers, hard-line Leavers, those who just want it sorted with honour and effect, and those in between - and provoke vote swings accordingly.

    However, 15 months after an election, the opposition is just about level-pegging, and has barely registered any net swing since the election. Those are hardly positive signs for them going on the historic record.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    Scott_P said:
    Clearly JRM reads the threads on PB and is concerned about their future quality should Brexit be dragged out forever. I fear he is right that we will get a very basic deal, a large number of more "difficult" issues deferred and a transitional period where we genuinely have BINO as we remain bound by the common rule book etc. I hope he is wrong but I understand the apprehension.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Bloody hell, the polling error for London Labour was statistically off the charts.
  • Scott_P said:
    This was bound to happen; if they couldn't agree before the referendum what 'Brexit' meant, there's f'all chance of them agreeing after once the prize is in sight. Whatever the prize might be ...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....

    Kiss and Tell.. trump was a fool.. but I despise her more, especially with her "revelations" about his todger. UGH..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....
    TBH, not very impressed by either party to the deal.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike made the point for years that the pollster who had the lowest score for Labour was the most accurate. This changed in 2017 when Corbyn and the fear of a May landslide finally got Labour supporters down to the polls in unexpectedly high numbers.

    Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.

    I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.

    My problem with the phantom surge in GE2017 theory (to prevent a May landslide) is that such high polling numbers of 37-41% for Labour have shown up in the polls ever since.

    It’s the key marginal polling i’d be interested in.
    We normally don't like our governments. It is not unusual for the opposition to poll better. Indeed Labour being behind, even fractionally, more than a year after the election is ominous for them. Add in the huge negativity that surrounds Brexit in the electronic media in particular and I think it is even more ominous, especially if an ok deal can be achieved.
    Yes, but that assumes the rules are still the same and we don’t now have two big values based blocs instead.

    In reality, it’s going to be a combination of the two but we just don’t know where the dividing line is.
  • DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Vince who?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    "One evening when I was having dinner with my first wife.....I call her that to keep her on her toes...."
    And she remained his first wife - for 75 years, he predeceases her.
    I hadn't known that when in the RAF he and Eric Sykes had stumbled upon Belsen.
    Michael Bentine was there too. The banter must have been choice.
  • Mr. L, a bland, soft-left, Labour-but-not-mental party could do incredibly well.

    It won't, though. Because it won't exist. Because nodding along to Corbyn and his ilk is a price worth buying for a red rosette, it seems.

    [I hope I'm wrong. I never thought the PLP would try to challenge Corbyn last Parliament, and they did].
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775

    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Vince who?
    Something to do with the Sterling/US dollar rate?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Depends if Mrs May clears off or not

    The Tories do finally seem to have realised housing is an issue however theyr probably not doing enough
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Where there seem to be very compelling reasons for both main parties' support to fall, and yet the traditional third option appears to be moribund, i suspect a small bleed only to more extreme parties like UKIP or the greens (the UKIP of the left) and counterintuitively, not much of a fall for either of the top two.

    If the alternatives cannot appeal despite the factors that are pushing people away from the top two, then the shares of the top two probably won't alter much. Either tribalism sees them turn out anyway, or it becomes a game of who will be most impacted by people staying at home.

    My personal view is that would be the Tories because of the 12 years in power factor, assuming we get to 2022. More people willing to hold their nose for the chance to get the Tories out than those doing so to keep them in after so long.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    edited September 2018

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    No, this doesn't help at all.

    What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The 'soft border' they are talking about is a soft Irish Sea border. But the critical reality is that you won't be able to send anything from the UK to NI which does not comply with EU regulations. A complete non-starter for the DUP, or ERG, or frankly anyone who has any degree of principle.

    It does obviously raise the question as to why a soft border is possible in the Irish Sea and not at, er, the real border. But the UK and EU are still talking past each other on this issue. You can't fudge this. If NI is in the CU and SM, it will be a vassal state of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    I agree with Mike that you can't rely on the polls being wrong in the same way, and indeed electoral history is littered with people projecting previous polling errors onto the next election.

    But I also agree with other posters that the electoral landscape now - whatever its true state - is a poor guide to what it will be like in four years' time or whenever the election is held. I think the Tories are doing quite well to be above water at all at the moment, but really I wouldn't hazard a guess to what we'll all be thinking in 2019, never mind 2022.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2018

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    No, this doesn't help at all.

    What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The 'soft border' they are talking about is a soft Irish Sea border. But the critical reality is that you won't be able to send anything from the UK to NI which does not comply with EU regulations. A complete non-starter for the DUP, or ERG, or frankly anyone who has any degree of principle.

    It does obviously raise the question as to why a soft border is possible in the Irish Sea and not at, er, the real border. But the UK and EU are still talking past each other on this issue. You can't fudge this. If NI is in the CU and SM, it will be a vassal state of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
    Strikes me that for all the EU love to condescend that we don't understand how they work (which surely is part of why we are in this situation to begin with, both in that attitude even though it's partly true) the reverse also seems to be true, it's just that they assume they don't have to because they are bigger. Which can work, when most of the time people will back down, but they might be expecting things May cannot deliver them. That's the trouble being so public about each other's contradictory red lines.
  • I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775

    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Depends if Mrs May clears off or not

    The Tories do finally seem to have realised housing is an issue however theyr probably not doing enough
    They certainly aren't. Although private house construction is going well much more needs to be done in respect of Council/Housing Association building. The rapidly falling deficit creates an opportunity there but Hammond is still in a funk about Brexit and is reluctant to move.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
  • Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....

    Kiss and Tell.. trump was a fool.. but I despise her more, especially with her "revelations" about his todger. UGH..
    I thought you would rise to that
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Vince who?
    Something to do with the Sterling/US dollar rate?
    LOL, that was my first thought when someone first mentioned Vince’s speech yesterday. I was in a room full of forex traders at the time!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The thing I find most difficult about the next election is who are people going to vote for? I can readily see arguments why both the Tory and Labour votes might fall from their relatively high points in 2017 but to go where?

    We had the leaders speech from the Lib Dems yesterday which only made the news because Vince completely screwed up his supposed best line. Even when they are no longer led by a zombie are they really going to make a come back? Their choices look unexciting to poor.

    It is possible that some of the Labour vote might bleed to the Greens. It seems vanishingly unlikely that those inclined to UKIP will even have a candidate to vote for. But however it is divided up and whatever the size of the cake (surely turnout will take a hit) the shares of the vote must add up to 100%. It is a conundrum.

    Vince who?
    Something to do with the Sterling/US dollar rate?
    LOL, that was my first thought when someone first mentioned Vince’s speech yesterday. I was in a room full of forex traders at the time!
    Well it was that or knitted sweaters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    The US will never enter into an FTA that does not include ISDS tribunals*, so I think it's a non-starter.

    * And by which I mean the US version, where the judges are American.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775

    I guess we’re in for a morning’s cognitive dissonance where pb Tories console themselves with this table without noticing that (1) the Conservatives did calamitously badly in London in these local elections and (2) in the more recent London polls Labour’s vote share has beeen down - and so has the Tories’.

    As I said earlier Alastair, the real challenge is getting the shares of the cake to add up to 100%.
  • rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
  • I agree with Mike that you can't rely on the polls being wrong in the same way, and indeed electoral history is littered with people projecting previous polling errors onto the next election.

    But I also agree with other posters that the electoral landscape now - whatever its true state - is a poor guide to what it will be like in four years' time or whenever the election is held. I think the Tories are doing quite well to be above water at all at the moment, but really I wouldn't hazard a guess to what we'll all be thinking in 2019, never mind 2022.

    The only reason the Tories are "doing quite well to be above water" is because a large number of us think the alternative is just too economically incompetent and downright weird to even contemplate. The Conservative Party is doing well in spite of it's management of a car-crash-called-Brexit, not because of it, and the only thing that is propping them up is, and will continue to do so, is the prospect of a dullard called Corbyn entering No 10
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
    Whilst I would agree with that it would be desirable to have this signed off at Salzburg as opposed to the traditional last minute "crisis" meetings/agreement the EU traditionally likes to indulge in. Whilst 95% froth and nonsense I do think the hysteria in our media can have an effect on things like investment at the margins. The sooner this is put to bed the better.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    The US will never enter into an FTA that does not include ISDS tribunals*, so I think it's a non-starter.

    * And by which I mean the US version, where the judges are American.
    Getting back control seems to mean ceding it to the Americans in an asymmetric trading relationship where we are the very junior partner.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike made the point for years that the pollster who had the lowest score for Labour was the most accurate. This changed in 2017 when Corbyn and the fear of a May landslide finally got Labour supporters down to the polls in unexpectedly high numbers.

    Was that a freak or had the pollsters finally over adjusted? The London result suggests freak but there are several special factors. Firstly this was a local election where Labour traditionally suffer differential turnout. It may or may not transcribe onto Westminster. Secondly, it is well known that safe seats diminish turnout and London is the biggest collection of them in the country. Thirdly, it is also the biggest collection of rotten boroughs with highly mobile residents a disproportionately large number of which will not even be on the electoral register. If they were they might well support Labour. As they are not they are irrelevant and distort the polling.

    I think it is too early to say that the default of Labour overstatement is back. But it might be.

    My problem with the phantom surge in GE2017 theory (to prevent a May landslide) is that such high polling numbers of 37-41% for Labour have shown up in the polls ever since.

    It’s the key marginal polling i’d be interested in.
    We normally don't like our governments. It is not unusual for the opposition to poll better. Indeed Labour being behind, even fractionally, more than a year after the election is ominous for them. Add in the huge negativity that surrounds Brexit in the electronic media in particular and I think it is even more ominous, especially if an ok deal can be achieved.
    Just checking the polls following David Cameron’s 2010 election. The GE took place in May 2010. Conservatives, the cons were ahead in YouGov on the 15th December 2010, 42 con 40 lab. And after that polls with the cons ahead got pretty rare. Labour regularly opened up leads of 5,7,8 points ahead.
    By two years in labour regularly had double digit poll leads.
  • Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....

    Kiss and Tell.. trump was a fool.. but I despise her more, especially with her "revelations" about his todger. UGH..
    I thought you would rise to that
    That is what Stormy said to Donald....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Really good analysis of the different strands of Labour views on Brexit:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/19/labour-conference-path-mps-crucial-brexit-vote-jeremy-corbyn

    A point not brought out explicitly in the article is that very few Labour people are entirely motivated by the issue itself. Brexit - for or against - is simply not seen by most Labour MPs as quite the cataclysmic decision point that Tory MPs seem to. The pro-referendum MPs are generally also influenced by being Corbynsceptics, the pro-Brexiteers are a tiny minority, and in between there are a lot of MPs, including the leadership, who simply don't feel that strongly. In that, they reflect a very large portion of Labour voters. It's really not that Labour MPs are being told by their voters they must vote for Brexit, but that they're being told to get on with the issues that people care about more.

    That IMO is why the LibDems are not breaking through - their message is not "Vote for us as the sensible centrists" but "vote for us as the EU fanatics". There are EU fanatics in the electorate, more or less including me, but there aren't enough who only care about that to make it a winning line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The LDs also tend to do better in local elections than national elections which may explain the difference at Labour's expense, they also seem to be polling higher now than they were at GE17
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    When I was a young analyst at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990s, I accidentally discovered a corporate fraud. It was one of the most stressful and unpleasant parts of my professional life. The pressure to "get in line" was enormous, because people had millions of dollars on the line. Telling someone their shares were worthless, and they needed to dump them, whatever the loss, didn't make you a hero. It was like you'd lost them money.

    On the positive side, if I ever become CFO of a public company, I know *loads* of ways to make earnings look better than they are...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    No, this doesn't help at all.

    What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The 'soft border' they are talking about is a soft Irish Sea border. But the critical reality is that you won't be able to send anything from the UK to NI which does not comply with EU regulations. A complete non-starter for the DUP, or ERG, or frankly anyone who has any degree of principle.

    It does obviously raise the question as to why a soft border is possible in the Irish Sea and not at, er, the real border. But the UK and EU are still talking past each other on this issue. You can't fudge this. If NI is in the CU and SM, it will be a vassal state of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
    Except May is almost certainly going to keep the whole UK in the single market and customs union to get the withdrawal agreement and transition period.

    A FTA using Chequers as a starting point will then be negotiated in the transition period
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
    Whilst I would agree with that it would be desirable to have this signed off at Salzburg as opposed to the traditional last minute "crisis" meetings/agreement the EU traditionally likes to indulge in. Whilst 95% froth and nonsense I do think the hysteria in our media can have an effect on things like investment at the margins. The sooner this is put to bed the better.
    This is not a normal trade negotiation it involves too much politics. Trade negotiations are normally quiet behind the scenes affairs. This was a full PR shitstorm. The only sensible approach is to disbelieve what you are told and go back and look at the facts. Do both sides want to continue trading ? Yes. Then a deal will get done.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
    Whilst I would agree with that it would be desirable to have this signed off at Salzburg as opposed to the traditional last minute "crisis" meetings/agreement the EU traditionally likes to indulge in. Whilst 95% froth and nonsense I do think the hysteria in our media can have an effect on things like investment at the margins. The sooner this is put to bed the better.
    It won't be signed off in Salzburg because it is in no-one's political interests to do so.

    Mrs May knows that the later it is agreed, the more under the gun the ERG will be. The EU knows that the longer a deal takes, the harder it will be for smaller countries to throw their toys out of the pram for a concession or two, and the more likely firms are to choose the EU over the UK for investment decisions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    RIP Saw him in London once or twice and he certainly went on a long time
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    When I was a young analyst at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990s, I accidentally discovered a corporate fraud. It was one of the most stressful and unpleasant parts of my professional life. The pressure to "get in line" was enormous, because people had millions of dollars on the line. Telling someone their shares were worthless, and they needed to dump them, whatever the loss, didn't make you a hero. It was like you'd lost them money.

    On the positive side, if I ever become CFO of a public company, I know *loads* of ways to make earnings look better than they are...
    I know how to look for in the unlikely event I ever need a CFO then. ;)

    There are *rumours* (and they are little more than that) that Tesla might have been massaging their sales figures somewhat. The SEC and DoJ are both now doing investigations into Tesla.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
    Whilst I would agree with that it would be desirable to have this signed off at Salzburg as opposed to the traditional last minute "crisis" meetings/agreement the EU traditionally likes to indulge in. Whilst 95% froth and nonsense I do think the hysteria in our media can have an effect on things like investment at the margins. The sooner this is put to bed the better.
    This is not a normal trade negotiation it involves too much politics. Trade negotiations are normally quiet behind the scenes affairs. This was a full PR shitstorm. The only sensible approach is to disbelieve what you are told and go back and look at the facts. Do both sides want to continue trading ? Yes. Then a deal will get done.
    What should be the real difference is that trade negotiations are normally seeking to innovate on the status quo. Here we are merely seeking to preserve a part of it. That really should be easier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    HYUFD said:

    RIP Saw him in London once or twice and he certainly went on a long time
    You could always have left at the interval....
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    The US will never enter into an FTA that does not include ISDS tribunals*, so I think it's a non-starter.

    * And by which I mean the US version, where the judges are American.
    Getting back control seems to mean ceding it to the Americans in an asymmetric trading relationship where we are the very junior partner.
    Indeed. This is what chlorinated chicken was shorthand for, even if a few dullards affected to believe it was literally about chlorinated chicken. The BBC has another related story today about champagne. The Americans regard protected geographical names as non-tariff barriers (which they are) and insist they are removed. The EU will insist they remain. We can't have both, and anyone who starts talking about Californian champagne is really missing the point.

    In Europe, we were a more-or-less equal partner (behind France and Germany, the cynics might say). To America, we are a junior partner even if our balance of trade says we should not be. Most of our trade will continue to be with Europe simply because it is closer than America, Australia and Singapore.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May writes in Die Welt:

    There have been arguments made against our proposals that have been at odds with the reality of trade negotiations elsewhere and indeed the current trading relationship between EU member states.

    For instance it is said that goods and services cannot be separated. But no free trade agreement the EU has ever concluded treats goods and services on the same basis. And most of the relevant services for goods are not covered by EU regulation in any case.


    https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article181579426/Theresa-May-May-warns-EU-not-to-treat-UK-unfairly-in-Brexit-talks.html

    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.
    Whilst I would agree with that it would be desirable to have this signed off at Salzburg as opposed to the traditional last minute "crisis" meetings/agreement the EU traditionally likes to indulge in. Whilst 95% froth and nonsense I do think the hysteria in our media can have an effect on things like investment at the margins. The sooner this is put to bed the better.
    This is not a normal trade negotiation it involves too much politics. Trade negotiations are normally quiet behind the scenes affairs. This was a full PR shitstorm. The only sensible approach is to disbelieve what you are told and go back and look at the facts. Do both sides want to continue trading ? Yes. Then a deal will get done.
    What should be the real difference is that trade negotiations are normally seeking to innovate on the status quo. Here we are merely seeking to preserve a part of it. That really should be easier.
    Indeed, but the trade came with a politcal addendum each time and we are simply caught up in someone else grand vision.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,775
    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    Good. Should have been in the last budget but better late than never.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    Went to the launch yesterday. Interesting and done good ideas but - as they admit - theoretical and entirely divorced from political reality.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    Seconded. I’d put it up there with The Fairfax Papers, Crash of the Titans, and Greed and Glory.

    Much better than Barbarians at the Gate or Pride of Lucifer which are the two people usually rave about
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    RIP Saw him in London once or twice and he certainly went on a long time
    You could always have left at the interval....
    Well 'It'll be Alright on the Night' did have adverts I suppose
  • HYUFD said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    No, this doesn't help at all.

    What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The 'soft border' they are talking about is a soft Irish Sea border. But the critical reality is that you won't be able to send anything from the UK to NI which does not comply with EU regulations. A complete non-starter for the DUP, or ERG, or frankly anyone who has any degree of principle.

    It does obviously raise the question as to why a soft border is possible in the Irish Sea and not at, er, the real border. But the UK and EU are still talking past each other on this issue. You can't fudge this. If NI is in the CU and SM, it will be a vassal state of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
    Except May is almost certainly going to keep the whole UK in the single market and customs union to get the withdrawal agreement and transition period.

    A FTA using Chequers as a starting point will then be negotiated in the transition period
    You clearly don't understand the difference between the withdrawal agreement and the transition period, nor do you understand the implications of the NI backstop.

    The EU have rejected a whole UK backstop. But if they accepted one, it would have to be time limited, which they have also rejected. If not, then the UK can never leave the backstop without EU approval and therefore the EU would have a veto on Brexit. I would be delighted if all we agreed was a time limited UK wide backstop but I know it is not going to be offered.

    But just keep re-posting your talking point and ignoring the fact that you can't for one second explain how it might actually happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    Good. Should have been in the last budget but better late than never.
    Yes and will help show the Tories are not just for home owners but want to ensure everyone has a decent place to live
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    When I was a young analyst at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990s, I accidentally discovered a corporate fraud. It was one of the most stressful and unpleasant parts of my professional life. The pressure to "get in line" was enormous, because people had millions of dollars on the line. Telling someone their shares were worthless, and they needed to dump them, whatever the loss, didn't make you a hero. It was like you'd lost them money.

    On the positive side, if I ever become CFO of a public company, I know *loads* of ways to make earnings look better than they are...
    There was a perhaps apocryphal story that when Terry Smith's book, Accounting for Growth, was published in 1992, one chairman took his financial controller aside and warned him that if he was using more than five of these devices to massage the accounts, he'd be fired. Fewer than two and he'd also be fired.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    The US will never enter into an FTA that does not include ISDS tribunals*, so I think it's a non-starter.

    * And by which I mean the US version, where the judges are American.
    Hmm. With a labour leader threatening ocmfiscstion of private assets on a regular basis it’s not surprising. Aren’t ISDS tribunals part of most trade agreements? Isn’t the ECJ one big ISDS tribunal? Why would the uk sign up to one if there was no balance of makeup of the membership of the tribunal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    No, this doesn't help at all.

    What the EU are proposing is that NI remains in the CU and the SM. The of the EU regardless of how much Barnier wants to 'de-dramatise' the resultant checks. May has said no PM can accept this. If she tries to sell out, the DUP will vote her out before she gets back from Brussels.
    Except May is almost certainly going to keep the whole UK in the single market and customs union to get the withdrawal agreement and transition period.

    A FTA using Chequers as a starting point will then be negotiated in the transition period
    You clearly don't understand the difference between the withdrawal agreement and the transition period, nor do you understand the implications of the NI backstop.

    The EU have rejected a whole UK backstop. But if they accepted one, it would have to be time limited, which they have also rejected. If not, then the UK can never leave the backstop without EU approval and therefore the EU would have a veto on Brexit. I would be delighted if all we agreed was a time limited UK wide backstop but I know it is not going to be offered.

    But just keep re-posting your talking point and ignoring the fact that you can't for one second explain how it might actually happen.
    No you clearly do not understand that if we do not get a transition period we go to No Deal Brexit as no Free Trade Agreement will be negotiated by the end of March but will have to be negotiated in the transition. We only get a transition period if we effectively stay in the single market and customs union in all but name. No Deal Brexit will never get through Parliament, indeed a second EU referendum would then be likely to be voted for in Parliament which Remain would probably win if No Deal was the alternative.

    The backstop is simply a means of ensuring no hard border in Ireland and staying in the single market and customs union in all but name as Chequers was a move towards but not enough will do that.
  • I agree with Mike that you can't rely on the polls being wrong in the same way, and indeed electoral history is littered with people projecting previous polling errors onto the next election.

    But I also agree with other posters that the electoral landscape now - whatever its true state - is a poor guide to what it will be like in four years' time or whenever the election is held. I think the Tories are doing quite well to be above water at all at the moment, but really I wouldn't hazard a guess to what we'll all be thinking in 2019, never mind 2022.

    The only reason the Tories are "doing quite well to be above water" is because a large number of us think the alternative is just too economically incompetent and downright weird to even contemplate. The Conservative Party is doing well in spite of it's management of a car-crash-called-Brexit, not because of it, and the only thing that is propping them up is, and will continue to do so, is the prospect of a dullard called Corbyn entering No 10
    I suspect Corbyn is May’s biggest electoral asset. I would be delighted to be able to vote against my MP who is an idiot and would do so in a heartbeat if someone sensible were in charge of Labour.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In SCOTUS news it looks like the Republicans have their messaging co-ordinated.

    Arranged a hearing on Monday where the person claiming Kavanaugh attempted to rape her would have to sit at the same table as Kavanaugh for 8 hours.

    Now trashing the women due to her refusal to do so.

    Kavanaugh will be confirmed. Anyone I can bet with on this outcome?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    Good. Should have been in the last budget but better late than never.
    Yes and will help show the Tories are not just for home owners but want to ensure everyone has a decent place to live
    depends where they are built. Since the major housing shortage is in the SE a rash of housing starts down there will just piss off everyone else
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    So nearly 35 years later Mrs May reverses one (among many) of Mrs Thatcher's disaterous social policies.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited September 2018
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    Seconded. I’d put it up there with The Fairfax Papers, Crash of the Titans, and Greed and Glory.

    Much better than Barbarians at the Gate or Pride of Lucifer which are the two people usually rave about
    Oooohhhh, I've not read Greed & Glory. Thanks @Charles
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited September 2018

    I agree with Mike that you can't rely on the polls being wrong in the same way, and indeed electoral history is littered with people projecting previous polling errors onto the next election.

    But I also agree with other posters that the electoral landscape now - whatever its true state - is a poor guide to what it will be like in four years' time or whenever the election is held. I think the Tories are doing quite well to be above water at all at the moment, but really I wouldn't hazard a guess to what we'll all be thinking in 2019, never mind 2022.

    The only reason the Tories are "doing quite well to be above water" is because a large number of us think the alternative is just too economically incompetent and downright weird to even contemplate. The Conservative Party is doing well in spite of it's management of a car-crash-called-Brexit, not because of it, and the only thing that is propping them up is, and will continue to do so, is the prospect of a dullard called Corbyn entering No 10
    Ah but if the Conservatives are right and Brexit really does have a price label of hundreds of billions of pounds (in which direction depends which Tories you listen to) then that view may change. It certainly dwarfs the costs of John McDonnell nationalising fresh air, or whatever is the current scare story.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    Good. Should have been in the last budget but better late than never.
    Yes and will help show the Tories are not just for home owners but want to ensure everyone has a decent place to live
    depends where they are built. Since the major housing shortage is in the SE a rash of housing starts down there will just piss off everyone else
    People not having homes in the SE equally pisses people off
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    So nearly 35 years later Mrs May reverses one (among many) of Mrs Thatcher's disaterous social policies.
    Right to buy's mistake was not to use the proceeds of sale to build new social homes
  • rcs1000 said:



    She is absolutely correct. Go and download the EU's tariff schedule. Services simply aren't categorised and "tariffed" in the same way as physical goods.

    But this is mostly window dressing now. The two sides are increasingly close. Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market. There will be no Irish sea border. And for goods travelling to the Republic there will be checks away from the border (in both Eire and NI), but it will be seamless for most.

    We will accept most of the rule book on industrial goods, but does anyone (other than @archer101au) really think there is a market for electrical products that are not CE certified? But we will not subject to social legislation, CAP, CFP, the political apparatus of the EU or the requirement to treat EU citizens as if they were British.

    It will not be a perfect Brexit, and it will be a starting point for further negotiations down the line. But it will be an acceptable Brexit to 70% of the British people, and 90% of British firms.

    In your desire to play the whole 'reasonable man' card you are ignoring some important realities. The UK is not, under Chequers, simply agreeing to follow EU product standards. If we were, we might just as well do that under CETA via regulatory equivalence. We are agreeing to be bound by ALL the rules of the single market (in relation to goods). To the degree that May think that we can ignore all this and just focus on product standards, the EU will definitely refuse. They consider that the worst type of cherry picking - the benefits of frictionless trade but not following the rules. As a result they will absolutely insist on social legislation and a whole bunch beside, although obviously May is keen that this is all dropped on us when it is too late to object. But this is one of the key reasons that the EU rejected Chequers.

    Trite quotes such as 'Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market' don't make any sense, and in any event it is the customs union that is relevant. You cannot be inside and outside of a customs union. Despite the window dressing, what Barnier is proposing is that NI will operate under a separate regulatory system from the UK. If the UK ends up with different tariffs than the EU there will have to be tariffs on internal flows of goods. If the UK diverges on services regulation, NI will be bound by SM rules. The DUP will veto it.

    If you can explain exactly how these problems can be solved, then I would be keen to hear it. Until then, I think we are just seeing people saying that things can be 'fudged' because it makes them feel better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited September 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    When I was a young analyst at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990s, I accidentally discovered a corporate fraud. It was one of the most stressful and unpleasant parts of my professional life. The pressure to "get in line" was enormous, because people had millions of dollars on the line. Telling someone their shares were worthless, and they needed to dump them, whatever the loss, didn't make you a hero. It was like you'd lost them money.

    On the positive side, if I ever become CFO of a public company, I know *loads* of ways to make earnings look better than they are...
    There was a perhaps apocryphal story that when Terry Smith's book, Accounting for Growth, was published in 1992, one chairman took his financial controller aside and warned him that if he was using more than five of these devices to massage the accounts, he'd be fired. Fewer than two and he'd also be fired.
    I remember in 1996, I was on holiday with my parents ahead of starting work at Goldman, and I read Accounting For Growth. Still a must read.

    Terry Smith, while a young analyst, once produced a report which had the title:

    Cannot
    Recommend
    At this
    Price
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    Went to the launch yesterday. Interesting and done good ideas but - as they admit - theoretical and entirely divorced from political reality.
    Interesting. I agree that it’s all based on the theory of free trade rather than what’s politically possible, but it’s also good to see groups bringing forward a positive vision for the future at a time when there’s a lot of negativity about on both sides of the pond.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to announce £2 billion for new social housing to ensure people are 'proud of their council homes'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45569453

    Good. Should have been in the last budget but better late than never.
    Yes and will help show the Tories are not just for home owners but want to ensure everyone has a decent place to live
    depends where they are built. Since the major housing shortage is in the SE a rash of housing starts down there will just piss off everyone else
    People not having homes in the SE equally pisses people off
    of course.

    but thats nort where the bulk of the marginals are
  • rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    On your recommendation I have literally just ordered it from Amazon, so that will benefit the Exchequer by ... oh, hold on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    In your desire to play the whole 'reasonable man' card you are ignoring some important realities. The UK is not, under Chequers, simply agreeing to follow EU product standards. If we were, we might just as well do that under CETA via regulatory equivalence. We are agreeing to be bound by ALL the rules of the single market (in relation to goods). To the degree that May think that we can ignore all this and just focus on product standards, the EU will definitely refuse. They consider that the worst type of cherry picking - the benefits of frictionless trade but not following the rules. As a result they will absolutely insist on social legislation and a whole bunch beside, although obviously May is keen that this is all dropped on us when it is too late to object. But this is one of the key reasons that the EU rejected Chequers.

    Trite quotes such as 'Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market' don't make any sense, and in any event it is the customs union that is relevant. You cannot be inside and outside of a customs union. Despite the window dressing, what Barnier is proposing is that NI will operate under a separate regulatory system from the UK. If the UK ends up with different tariffs than the EU there will have to be tariffs on internal flows of goods. If the UK diverges on services regulation, NI will be bound by SM rules. The DUP will veto it.

    If you can explain exactly how these problems can be solved, then I would be keen to hear it. Until then, I think we are just seeing people saying that things can be 'fudged' because it makes them feel better.

    Really? Would you like to explain how the EU's social legislation works in Switzerland?

    Basically, you have no idea how negotiations are going, and spew opinions as facts. Let me give you a few examples of things you have claimed, which are - how to put this - devoid of reality.

    You asserted that the UK was not conducting talks with countries that the EU had existing FTAs with, because tthe EU had forbidden it. This was, as I pointed out at the time, completely untrue, which has been demonstrated by the government's agreements in Southern Africa.

    You asserted that that the EU had never made financial demands beyond those agreed by the UK government. This was, again, completely untrue.

    There are people on politicalbetting with less credibility that you. But not many.
  • I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.
  • rcs1000 said:

    In your desire to play the whole 'reasonable man' card you are ignoring some important realities. The UK is not, under Chequers, simply agreeing to follow EU product standards. If we were, we might just as well do that under CETA via regulatory equivalence. We are agreeing to be bound by ALL the rules of the single market (in relation to goods). To the degree that May think that we can ignore all this and just focus on product standards, the EU will definitely refuse. They consider that the worst type of cherry picking - the benefits of frictionless trade but not following the rules. As a result they will absolutely insist on social legislation and a whole bunch beside, although obviously May is keen that this is all dropped on us when it is too late to object. But this is one of the key reasons that the EU rejected Chequers.

    Trite quotes such as 'Northern Ireland will be both inside and outside the EU's single market' don't make any sense, and in any event it is the customs union that is relevant. You cannot be inside and outside of a customs union. Despite the window dressing, what Barnier is proposing is that NI will operate under a separate regulatory system from the UK. If the UK ends up with different tariffs than the EU there will have to be tariffs on internal flows of goods. If the UK diverges on services regulation, NI will be bound by SM rules. The DUP will veto it.

    If you can explain exactly how these problems can be solved, then I would be keen to hear it. Until then, I think we are just seeing people saying that things can be 'fudged' because it makes them feel better.

    Really? Would you like to explain how the EU's social legislation works in Switzerland?

    Basically, you have no idea how negotiations are going, and spew opinions as facts. Let me give you a few examples of things you have claimed, which are - how to put this - devoid of reality.

    You asserted that the UK was not conducting talks with countries that the EU had existing FTAs with, because tthe EU had forbidden it. This was, as I pointed out at the time, completely untrue, which has been demonstrated by the government's agreements in Southern Africa.

    You asserted that that the EU had never made financial demands beyond those agreed by the UK government. This was, again, completely untrue.

    There are people on politicalbetting with less credibility that you. But not many.
    +1
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the EU have offered to move one part of the rubix cube: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45566205

    That should do it. Doing intelligence-led customs checks and inspections in NI well away from the border at businesses and lorry depots has been the obvious solution since the start as I’ve said. I’d certainly vote for this solution if I were a Tory MP.

    And don’t just fixate on NI on this. The EU moving on this will allow movement in other areas, particularly how customs and regulation will work UK-wide, to facilitate a deal.

    A sensible deal that satisfies 60% of Leavers, and probably about the same proportion of Remainers, is in reach. Only @archer101au and @WilliamGlenn will be truly apoplectic.
    Indeed. What’s your view of the U.K./US think tank trade deal proposal that was published earlier this week?
    https://www.cps.org.uk/press/press-releases/q/date/2018/09/18/cps-joins-us-uk-think-tanks-to-draft-ideal-free-trade-a/
    Went to the launch yesterday. Interesting and done good ideas but - as they admit - theoretical and entirely divorced from political reality.
    Interesting. I agree that it’s all based on the theory of free trade rather than what’s politically possible, but it’s also good to see groups bringing forward a positive vision for the future at a time when there’s a lot of negativity about on both sides of the pond.
    I went to see Spike Lee's 'Blackklansman' and despite it's faults and SL laying it on with a trowel it's usful in reminding British viewers why we ought to be very wary before we even start petting with those on the other side of the pond let alone getting into bed with them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.

    https://tinyurl.com/ycybdopl

    The Kentwell - Plot 791
    £465,000


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9"
    Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4"
    Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"


    Utterly bonkers.

This discussion has been closed.