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  • When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
  • Scott_P said:
    :lol: Pass me the popcorn.

    Did the Corbynite ultras forget that the unions fund and founded the party?
  • The irony of the unions ensuring a non-Corbynite wins next time is fantastic, given the many times Blair mused about breaking the link.
  • When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
    My guess is voting down Chequers would result in an application to extend A50 rather than anything else.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614


    Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed

    Dancing in Africa was another part of this. Number 10 has got its act together. Not just in training the Prime Minister to do human but also in opening social media fire on Boris whenever he puts his head above the parapet, and scripting Theresa May some zingers for PMQs. What ought to worry Tory MPs is this greater professionalism might encourage her to hang around for the next election.
    Yes, there’s clearly been a change of media SpAd at No.10, who’s spent time talking to the PM and understanding her personality - which is of course a very different personality to her predecessor. Another example from a couple of days ago.
    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1042137851704561665
  • 1. When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    2. Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    3. How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?

    1. It will probably go through. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Labour doesn't vote against in the end. Even if the official whip is to oppose, I expect Lab rebels to be sufficiently large as to overturn any Con rebellion (in a rather pleasing echo of 1972).

    2. This is point (1) again.

    3. Because a general election has to be triggered either by the government asking for one or for a VoNC in the govt in the Commons. The government won't want an election if its plans go down in flames, and Labour won't have the votes to force one. just because Jacob Rees-Mogg might vote down Chequers, it doesn't mean he'll vote to Corbyn into Number 10 (which is a likely immediate consequence of a VoNC in the govt).

    If Chequers is voted down, there's a good chance that there'll be a Con leadership election, either because May resigns voluntarily or because she's forced out. In those circumstances, the Con MPs would absolutely oppose any attempt to force a GE, and the public would almost certainly see it as unfair game-playing to try to trigger a GE in the middle of a party's internal election.
    I think people are ignoring the elephant in the Commons. If May agrees the NI backstop in the form currently being proposed by the EU, the DUP wlll no confidence her and she will lose. The DUP are not bluffing, and Barnier’s latest ‘offer’ is exactly the same in substance as before.

    That is why there really has been no progress all year.

    Remember is the DUP do vote against the Govt in a VONC, there is not necessarily an election. The Tories can change leader and form a new Government that the DUP does support. They don’t even need to change leader as long as one of them can form a Government.
  • Danny565 said:

    LOL at people thinking Labour are going to vote through a No Deal Brexit.

    In the likely event of Labour MPs rejecting May's deal, they will probably propose a motion forbidding the government from formally leaving the EU (revoking Article 50 if necessary) until a deal is approved. Though of course, there's no guarantee such a motion would be carried by the Commons, since the Anna Soubrys on the Tory benches usually fold and fall into line on crunch votes, despite all the trash they talk in advance.

    It's doubtful that such a motion would carry sufficient legal weight to be enforceable, whether or not it was carried. The PM was only able to trigger A50 because of an Act of Parliament, and that Act didn't grant the power to revoke it. By the same logic that made that Act necessary, another Act would also be necessary to override it - and a parliamentary motion cannot wish that Act into place.

    Besides, it's still dubious under EU law as to whether A50 is revocable anyway.
  • When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
    My guess is voting down Chequers would result in an application to extend A50 rather than anything else.
    This is probably right. May would resign and the new Leaver PM would ask the EU to extend and agree CETA.

    But Chequers will never make it to a vote. The EU have rejected it. Chequers-lite will be the best she can offer and DD is quite right that the EU will make her concede so much crap that it won’t pass.
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
  • The irony of the unions ensuring a non-Corbynite wins next time is fantastic, given the many times Blair mused about breaking the link.

    Tony Blair never understood the Labour Party. The unions invariably shored up its right wing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    SPD activists unhappy with party's performance in government and increasingly asking whats in it for them. Only the fear of a new election is keeping them there.


    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/maassen-befoerderung-das-dilemma-der-spd-15795651.html
  • When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
    My guess is voting down Chequers would result in an application to extend A50 rather than anything else.
    This is probably right. May would resign and the new Leaver PM would ask the EU to extend and agree CETA.

    But Chequers will never make it to a vote. The EU have rejected it. Chequers-lite will be the best she can offer and DD is quite right that the EU will make her concede so much crap that it won’t pass.
    Possible. When I use the word 'Chequers' I mean whatever Chequers becomes. As you say 'Chequers-Lite'. Not impossible now the EU will not make too many changes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    SPD activists unhappy with party's performance in government and increasingly asking whats in it for them. Only the fear of a new election is keeping them there.


    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/maassen-befoerderung-das-dilemma-der-spd-15795651.html

    There was always a sizeable minority who were unconvinced.
  • 1. When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    2. Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    3. How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?

    1. It will probably go through. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Labour doesn't vote against in the end. Even if the official whip is to oppose, I expect Lab rebels to be sufficiently large as to overturn any Con rebellion (in a rather pleasing echo of 1972).

    2. This is point (1) again.

    3. Because a general election has to be triggered either by the government asking for one or for a VoNC in the govt in the Commons. The government won't want an election if its plans go down in flames, and Labour won't have the votes to force one. just because Jacob Rees-Mogg might vote down Chequers, it doesn't mean he'll vote to Corbyn into Number 10 (which is a likely immediate consequence of a VoNC in the govt).

    If Chequers is voted down, there's a good chance that there'll be a Con leadership election, either because May resigns voluntarily or because she's forced out. In those circumstances, the Con MPs would absolutely oppose any attempt to force a GE, and the public would almost certainly see it as unfair game-playing to try to trigger a GE in the middle of a party's internal election.
    I think people are ignoring the elephant in the Commons. If May agrees the NI backstop in the form currently being proposed by the EU, the DUP wlll no confidence her and she will lose. The DUP are not bluffing, and Barnier’s latest ‘offer’ is exactly the same in substance as before.

    That is why there really has been no progress all year.

    Remember is the DUP do vote against the Govt in a VONC, there is not necessarily an election. The Tories can change leader and form a new Government that the DUP does support. They don’t even need to change leader as long as one of them can form a Government.
    Is that right. I thought a VONC in the Government (rather than a Tory party internal vote on May) leads to the Queen giving Jezza two weeks to form a government that commands a majority.

    If not, then the Queen is about to be put in a place she will not want to be. i.e. choosing who to invite to Palace to talk first.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    edited September 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.

    https://tinyurl.com/ycybdopl

    The Kentwell - Plot 791
    £465,000


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9"
    Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4"
    Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"


    Utterly bonkers.

    Lol what teeny tiny rooms. Whoever buys that is heading for a whole world of negative equity I think
    Hmm.

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/find-your-home/england/hampshire/church-crookham/the-woodlands-at-crookham-park/the-kentwell---791

    133sqm Gross Internal Area, according to the EPC.
    https://www.epcregister.com/reportSearchAddressListReports.html?id=b952f3c5d8f720f5111c3c31299a8a85

    Meets the London Space Standard for 6 people/4 bedrooms very comfortably !
    https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/current-london-plan/london-plan-chapter-3/policy-35-quality-and

    I haven't looked it up, but I think that is bigger than the European average.

    Lots of space in modern houses is used by gubbins, disabled loos, and wider circulation routes.
  • When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
    My guess is voting down Chequers would result in an application to extend A50 rather than anything else.
    That's certainly possible, though I think it'd be a one-shot option and I doubt it'd be an effective one. The EU27 would be unlikely to give much further ground, and parliament would be unlikely to support a second deal that was largely a repackaged version of the first one (though there is a meaningful chance that minds would have been sufficiently concentrated to make the difference). Either way, an extension to A50 would just delay the crunch point rather than eliminate it.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    2 thoughts on the discussion (not sure who to quote so won't try)

    1. The plausible routes to a GE rely on the DUP withdrawing support. Then it's straightforward. Vote of no Confidence - Con against, DUP abstain, all others for - passes. No way DUP will support any other government so no vote of confidence can be passed in next 2 weeks, G.E. here we come. Hard to see any other route unless the ERG have a deathwish.

    2. What happens if the deal is voted down? I don't believe a word of the 'ok no deal then' crowd - for all the tough talk I suspect the vast majority of Westminster rightly knows this is unmanageable. My guess is that A50 extension will be the first response. If agreed then a vote on the Nick Boles EEA option, if that fails then it surely has to go back to the people in some form. If A50 extension not agreed then we really are in chaos - surely needs a general election at that point.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    SPD activists unhappy with party's performance in government and increasingly asking whats in it for them. Only the fear of a new election is keeping them there.


    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/maassen-befoerderung-das-dilemma-der-spd-15795651.html

    There was always a sizeable minority who were unconvinced.
    the Greens are gradually chewing them up

    in the Bavarian election its the greens getting to do the TV debate with the CSU because the SPD has very little chance of being the opposition

  • Listening to TM speaking to the Housing Association's conference this morning she seemed much more confident and assured, almost as if a weight was off her shoulders. I know those on here will say that I am her cheerleader but I am not without criticism of her, but something seems to have changed

    Dancing in Africa was another part of this. Number 10 has got its act together. Not just in training the Prime Minister to do human but also in opening social media fire on Boris whenever he puts his head above the parapet, and scripting Theresa May some zingers for PMQs. What ought to worry Tory MPs is this greater professionalism might encourage her to hang around for the next election.
    Panorama was good PR for her
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.

  • youre nit picking

    It's generally better to say things that are true, instead of things that are bollocks, but point in the same general direction as something true.
    so a bank failing to notice massive payments passing through a small branch and nobody asks questions is bollocks

    the things you learn on PB
    Who needs numbers to be right, as long as they're big
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    tlg86 said:

    I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.

    https://tinyurl.com/ycybdopl

    The Kentwell - Plot 791
    £465,000


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Kitchen / Dining Area 5.71m x 4.19m 18'9" x 13'9"
    Living Room 5.03m x 3.57m 16'6" x 11'9"


    Room Metres Feet and inches
    Master Bedroom 3.84m x 3.27m 12'7" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 2 3.31m x 3.27m 10'10" x 10'9"
    Bedroom 3 2.36m x 2.23m 7'9" x 7'4"
    Bedroom 4 3.28m x 2.35m 10'9" x 7'9"


    Utterly bonkers.

    That's a pretty awful house for £465,000.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2018

    .).

    2. This is point (1) again.

    3. Because a general election has to be triggered either by the government asking for one or for a VoNC in the govt in the Commons. The government won't want an election if its plans go down in flames, and Labour won't have the votes to force one. just because Jacob Rees-Mogg might vote down Chequers, it doesn't mean he'll vote to Corbyn into Number 10 (which is a likely immediate consequence of a VoNC in the govt).

    If Chequers is voted down, there's a good chance that there'll be a Con leadership election, either because May resigns voluntarily or because she's forced out. In those circumstances, the Con MPs would absolutely oppose any attempt to force a GE, and the public would almost certainly see it as unfair game-playing to try to trigger a GE in the middle of a party's internal election.
    I think people are ignoring the elephant in the Commons. If May agrees the NI backstop in the form currently being proposed by the EU, the DUP wlll no confidence her and she will lose. The DUP are not bluffing, and Barnier’s latest ‘offer’ is exactly the same in substance as before.

    That is why there really has been no progress all year.

    Remember is the DUP do vote against the Govt in a VONC, there is not necessarily an election. The Tories can change leader and form a new Government that the DUP does support. They don’t even need to change leader as long as one of them can form a Government.
    Is that right. I thought a VONC in the Government (rather than a Tory party internal vote on May) leads to the Queen giving Jezza two weeks to form a government that commands a majority.

    If not, then the Queen is about to be put in a place she will not want to be. i.e. choosing who to invite to Palace to talk first.
    If I read the FTPA correctly, it would be up to Parliament to assemble within two weeks and pass a vote of confidence in the government, else be dissolved. I’m assuming it’s that way to avoid HM getting involved.

    In practice, following the VoNC the government would resign and, depending on how the VoNC came about, the parties would find a coalition of MPs that would support a VoC within two weeks, at which point Mrs May goes to the palace and tells HM to call for the nominated successor - almost certainly another Conservative promising to deliver a ‘harder’ form of Brexit than May.

    With the current numbers, a VoNC needs the DUP to actively vote against the government rather than abstain, so we’d either need a breakdown in that relationship or a dozen Conservatives crossing the floor to join other parties. It’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely.
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    Pah, Theranos is small beer compared to this:
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1042183068734418945
    Bloody hell, that’s an impressive amount of money.

    I suspect that a lot of people around the world are going to be in big trouble with this one.
    Spending over $10m a month on "stuff" is going it!
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    How many Tory MPs *really* want to leave? I mean, they obviously need to be able to tell their associations they did, but that's what secret ballots are for.
  • Must be off now, for a spot of volunteering.

    Windy out there.

    Play nicely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    tpfkar said:

    2 thoughts on the discussion (not sure who to quote so won't try)

    1. The plausible routes to a GE rely on the DUP withdrawing support. Then it's straightforward. Vote of no Confidence - Con against, DUP abstain, all others for - passes. No way DUP will support any other government so no vote of confidence can be passed in next 2 weeks, G.E. here we come. Hard to see any other route unless the ERG have a deathwish.

    2. What happens if the deal is voted down? I don't believe a word of the 'ok no deal then' crowd - for all the tough talk I suspect the vast majority of Westminster rightly knows this is unmanageable. My guess is that A50 extension will be the first response. If agreed then a vote on the Nick Boles EEA option, if that fails then it surely has to go back to the people in some form. If A50 extension not agreed then we really are in chaos - surely needs a general election at that point.

    If the DUP abstain, then the government win a vote of confidence by 317 to 315.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    She would be going against everything she has said for the past couple of years. And the election mandate. She would literally have no power whatsoever to propose Remain. It would make the Manifesto fuck-up look like her finest hour....
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    She would be going against everything she has said for the past couple of years. And the election mandate. She would literally have no power whatsoever to propose Remain. It would make the Manifesto fuck-up look like her finest hour....
    Everything she has said for the past couple of years has been geared to getting a deal for the Brexit people voted for. Once she's got that deal, there is no political benefit to her to ram it down people's throats. On the contrary she benefits from giving people the opportunity to chuck it in the bin.
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    The Party is committed to Brexit now. Even if many MPs have reservations (and quite a lot no doubt would), the democratic principle - and the practical political consequences of screwing over 70% of current Con support - would be decisive. The question is in any case 'when' not 'if' she goes this term. For her to advocate Remain would immediately produce the answer 'now'.
  • I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    The Party is committed to Brexit now. Even if many MPs have reservations (and quite a lot no doubt would), the democratic principle - and the practical political consequences of screwing over 70% of current Con support - would be decisive. The question is in any case 'when' not 'if' she goes this term. For her to advocate Remain would immediately produce the answer 'now'.
    She doesn't need to advocate Remain, merely to facilitate it. May can do a Wilson and stay neutral in any second referendum.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    Sean_F said:

    tpfkar said:

    2 thoughts on the discussion (not sure who to quote so won't try)

    1. The plausible routes to a GE rely on the DUP withdrawing support. Then it's straightforward. Vote of no Confidence - Con against, DUP abstain, all others for - passes. No way DUP will support any other government so no vote of confidence can be passed in next 2 weeks, G.E. here we come. Hard to see any other route unless the ERG have a deathwish.

    2. What happens if the deal is voted down? I don't believe a word of the 'ok no deal then' crowd - for all the tough talk I suspect the vast majority of Westminster rightly knows this is unmanageable. My guess is that A50 extension will be the first response. If agreed then a vote on the Nick Boles EEA option, if that fails then it surely has to go back to the people in some form. If A50 extension not agreed then we really are in chaos - surely needs a general election at that point.

    If the DUP abstain, then the government win a vote of confidence by 317 to 315.
    thanks. Although I'd be a nervous whip looking after Ken Clarke in that scenario!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There is no deal (sic) that can make it through the Commons.

    The political imperative therefore is either a General Election (to avoid the need for another referendum), or another referendum (to avoid the need for another General Election)

    In both cases an extension of Article 50 is necessary (and may of course become permanent)
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    There is no deal (sic) that can make it through the Commons.

    The political imperative therefore is either a General Election (to avoid the need for another referendum), or another referendum (to avoid the need for another General Election)

    In both cases an extension of Article 50 is necessary (and may of course become permanent)

    That seems unlikely. We are leaving, a delay would only be acceptable if very time limited. What we might move to, though badged as temporary until we work out what we want in the long term, could be semi permanent, but we are leaving the EU.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    How many Tory MPs *really* want to leave? I mean, they obviously need to be able to tell their associations they did, but that's what secret ballots are for.
    I think many question the 'opportunity cost' of brexit, ie we arent doing anything else and things that do need done are getting kicked into the long grass.
  • Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    tpfkar said:

    Sean_F said:

    tpfkar said:

    2 thoughts on the discussion (not sure who to quote so won't try)

    1. The plausible routes to a GE rely on the DUP withdrawing support. Then it's straightforward. Vote of no Confidence - Con against, DUP abstain, all others for - passes. No way DUP will support any other government so no vote of confidence can be passed in next 2 weeks, G.E. here we come. Hard to see any other route unless the ERG have a deathwish.

    2. What happens if the deal is voted down? I don't believe a word of the 'ok no deal then' crowd - for all the tough talk I suspect the vast majority of Westminster rightly knows this is unmanageable. My guess is that A50 extension will be the first response. If agreed then a vote on the Nick Boles EEA option, if that fails then it surely has to go back to the people in some form. If A50 extension not agreed then we really are in chaos - surely needs a general election at that point.

    If the DUP abstain, then the government win a vote of confidence by 317 to 315.
    thanks. Although I'd be a nervous whip looking after Ken Clarke in that scenario!
    Some Labour MP's who've lost the whip might not bother to turn up.
  • 1. When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    2. Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    3. How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?

    I think people are ignoring the elephant in the Commons. If May agrees the NI backstop in the form currently being proposed by the EU, the DUP wlll no confidence her and she will lose. The DUP are not bluffing, and Barnier’s latest ‘offer’ is exactly the same in substance as before.

    That is why there really has been no progress all year.

    Remember is the DUP do vote against the Govt in a VONC, there is not necessarily an election. The Tories can change leader and form a new Government that the DUP does support. They don’t even need to change leader as long as one of them can form a Government.
    Is that right. I thought a VONC in the Government (rather than a Tory party internal vote on May) leads to the Queen giving Jezza two weeks to form a government that commands a majority.

    If not, then the Queen is about to be put in a place she will not want to be. i.e. choosing who to invite to Palace to talk first.
    We'd be in constitutionally unknown territory. In the pre-FTPA days, when a government lost a VoNC, it either resigned or went to the country. The two-week provision is an innovation for which precedent is an uncertain guide.

    In reality, 'soundings' would no doubt be taken by Palace officials as to who was most likely to be able to form an alternative government before any invitation was issued. Remember though that to avoid the GE, the Commons has to pass a VoC in *the government*, not in some proposed government - so that alternative, even if it also failed a VoC, would need to already be in office.

    Who would get the first post-May summons? The Palace would almost certainly have to offer one if a politician could make a reasonable claim that they believed they could form a government; it couldn't just let the clock run down. There'd only really be two options. Either Corbyn, who as LotO would usually be given first go, or a replacement Con leader (if one could be quickly arranged), if the DUP were willing to play ball. If either of those two options was then voted down, and the other was available, then that other one would almost certainly be explored too.

    One consequence of this is that Corbyn might end up going into a post-VoNC election *as Prime Minister*.
  • Mr. Borough (even though you're off), I dislike high winds. Especially with rain.

    Wind prevents the wearing of a hat, which means rain gets on my glasses. Of course, that wouldn't matter, but the hound requires perambulation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    The Party is committed to Brexit now. Even if many MPs have reservations (and quite a lot no doubt would), the democratic principle - and the practical political consequences of screwing over 70% of current Con support - would be decisive. The question is in any case 'when' not 'if' she goes this term. For her to advocate Remain would immediately produce the answer 'now'.
    At this point, there is no upside, and plenty of downside, to the Conservatives not going ahead with Brexit. They own it now, and you get no reward for being half-hearted about your own policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    When Chequers is defeated in Parliament. which is more likely than not IMO.

    Given that "its my deal or no deal" and No Deal will be clearly defeated by MPs.

    How come people think defeating Chequers wont result in a GE?


    Enough Labour MPs will defy their whip and vote for it potentially, given that the ultra tories will be squeezed harder by their whips than anything we have seen in decades. Every threat, every skeleton, will be thrown at this one.
    So if Mays deal is defeated?
    No Deal *can't* be defeated by MPs, other than a vote for Some Deal.
    Why? I think it can.

    We are a Parliamentary Democracy arent we?

    By spouting its my deal or no deal the PM has given the green light to vote down her deal IMO in order to force a GE
    1. As already stated, voting down Chequers *doesn't* force a GE. This is magical methodology on your part. Things don't just happen.

    2. I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed. Whether parliament can force the government to accept a treaty it does not want to or has not negotiated is dubious constitutionally - but it's absolutely certain that it couldn't force one on the other EU states.
    My guess is voting down Chequers would result in an application to extend A50 rather than anything else.
    Except Chequers will only be a consideration now for FTA negotiations in the transition period, in the meantime the UK will be in the single market and customs union in all but name
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Mr. Borough (even though you're off), I dislike high winds. Especially with rain.

    Wind prevents the wearing of a hat, which means rain gets on my glasses. Of course, that wouldn't matter, but the hound requires perambulation.

    hatless?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2018
    Oh, I arrived at the cricket stadium expecting a mad and ‘vibrant’ atmosphere, but the place is still half empty. Obviously an awful lot of people still on the way, for a match that could have been sold out a dozen times over...
  • Mr. Cide, probably will have to be, judging by the gusts outside.

    Mr. Sandpit, what's the weather like? :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2018

    Mr. Cide, probably will have to be, judging by the gusts outside.

    Mr. Sandpit, what's the weather like? :p

    I’m wearing a hat and glasses too, but for different reasons...

    About 38-40° I’d think. Just about bearable.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    RIP Saw him in London once or twice and he certainly went on a long time
    You could always have left at the interval....
    Well 'It'll be Alright on the Night' did have adverts I suppose
    Denis Norden's BBC obituary starts with his RAF days:
    One day, three young comics went to find some lights for a show they were doing.

    They were entertaining the RAF in northern Germany and had been told they would find what they needed at a nearby camp which had recently been liberated.

    The camp was called Bergen-Belsen.

    ...

    Norden and his two friends, Ron Rich and Eric Sykes, dumped the lights. They went straight back to their own camp and picked up whatever spare food they could find.

    "Appalled, aghast, repelled - it is difficult to find words to express how we felt as we looked upon the degradation of some of the inmates not yet repatriated," he said.

    Seventy thousand people had died in Bergen-Belsen, most of them by starvation. "As far as I could see, all these pitiable wrecks had one thing in common. None of them was standing."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25738224

    That is why antisemitism matters.
    Well said Mr L
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited September 2018
    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.
  • Mr. Sandpit, aye, in that temperature/sun I'd want a hat just to stop my head turning to bacon.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    edited September 2018

    Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
    What is your source for that claim?

    Someone is bullshitting somewhere.

    According to the Apple website they employ 22,000 across Europe, of which 6,000 are in Ireland, 2,465 in France and 2,537 in Germany.
    https://www.apple.com/uk/job-creation/

    Someone is comparing direct Apple Employees in Ireland with the entire "App Store Ecosystem" in those other countries.

    (PS
    Is it someone cherry picking from, or not understanding, this rather confusing piece in the Telegraph from Rhiannon Williams:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12113065/Apple-responsible-for-242000-iOS-related-jobs-in-the-UK.html

    A series of category errors.)
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    Pah, Theranos is small beer compared to this:
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1042183068734418945
    Wasn't Holmes worth about $5bn at one point?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited September 2018
    tpfkar said:

    Sean_F said:

    tpfkar said:

    2 thoughts on the discussion (not sure who to quote so won't try)

    1. The plausible routes to a GE rely on the DUP withdrawing support. Then it's straightforward. Vote of no Confidence - Con against, DUP abstain, all others for - passes. No way DUP will support any other government so no vote of confidence can be passed in next 2 weeks, G.E. here we come. Hard to see any other route unless the ERG have a deathwish.

    2. What happens if the deal is voted down? I don't believe a word of the 'ok no deal then' crowd - for all the tough talk I suspect the vast majority of Westminster rightly knows this is unmanageable. My guess is that A50 extension will be the first response. If agreed then a vote on the Nick Boles EEA option, if that fails then it surely has to go back to the people in some form. If A50 extension not agreed then we really are in chaos - surely needs a general election at that point.

    If the DUP abstain, then the government win a vote of confidence by 317 to 315.
    thanks. Although I'd be a nervous whip looking after Ken Clarke in that scenario!
    Ken is solid. Soubry might be more of an issue. Though in a tied vote, Bercow would be obliged to vote for the government (lol), in accordance with the principle of retaining the status quo - which in this case would be that the House does have confidence in the government.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she has sufficient brass neck.

    The argument becomes a bit circular at this point - I agree, if May insisted it was no deal, and used the government’s control of parliamentary time to prevent any binding motions to the contrary being tabled/debated then you’d probably get a VONC as the only means at parliament’s disposal to prevent disaster. But given May’s commitment to keeping her job at all costs, and the fact that she would understand that sequence of events, she would therefore not insist it was no deal.

    But she has to say that she would, for now, to maximise the chance of her ‘deal’ being voted for. In reality, no deal is the only alternative in the same way as there definitely wasn’t going to be an early election in 2017.
  • Sean_F said:

    I should have thought it pretty obvious that the choice is between Some Deal and No Deal. Those are literally the only possible options, other than Remain (which is unacceptable to the government and its MPs, so not practically possible). And the only option for Some Deal will be the one on the table because it'll be the only one the EU28 have agreed.

    Once there is a deal, No Deal is no longer tenable as a potential real-world option. The only choices in reality will be the deal or Remain.

    If you're going to assert that Remain is "unacceptable to the government and its MPs" it would help to put some numbers against that, because there are clearly Conservative MPs for whom it is acceptable.
    Numbers. If May formally proposed Remain, Graham Brady have 48 letters of No Confidence within half an hour. May would then be voted out the following day with comfortably over 200 MPs against.
    I'll believe the 48, not so convinced of the 200.
    The Party is committed to Brexit now. Even if many MPs have reservations (and quite a lot no doubt would), the democratic principle - and the practical political consequences of screwing over 70% of current Con support - would be decisive. The question is in any case 'when' not 'if' she goes this term. For her to advocate Remain would immediately produce the answer 'now'.
    At this point, there is no upside, and plenty of downside, to the Conservatives not going ahead with Brexit. They own it now, and you get no reward for being half-hearted about your own policy.
    If I accept that a majority of Tory MPs are now to a greater or lesser extent Brexiteers, even that they have enough to boot TMay out. The questions then are, will the deal keep the DUP onside and will there be any Tory MPs who would vote against the party or even leave it over the Brexit issue (or the party being led by Boris / Rees Mogg)?
    Also would Labour help the Tories out?
    It seems to me that there probably is no majority in parliament for No Deal, we don't know about Mrs May's deal but Chequers isn't universally popular and is liable to be watered down.
    Now add to that another question - would the EU agree an extension to A50 in the absence of a new referendum?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If anybody hasn't read Bad Blood about Theranos, then what the hell are you doing on PB??? It's one of the best business books I've ever read, and a great example of the benefits of doing actual work to come to ones own opinions (rather than relying on the actually famous).

    It was indeed. I even bought a copy for my nephew, who has an entrepreneurship gene that I lack. ;)

    It'll be interesting to see what happens in the court cases against Holmes and her beau, neither of whom should have been allowed to control the finances of the local church fete, yet alone a multi-million dollar company.

    It's amazing how many of the great and good got lured in by the con (and I think it's now beyond doubt it was a con, at the end if not the beginning). Some of those same great and good come out very poorly, especially the one who preferred to believe Holmes over his ?grandson? I also wonder how many other emergent companies sailed close to the wind in similar manners.

    One thing I would say about the book, however: it was very one-sided, as you'd expect given the situation it was written in. For some reason, I also found myself disliking Carreyrou a little as well, as if the sh*t he was investigating had covered him a little. This is very probably an unfair reaction, but it's how I felt.
    Pah, Theranos is small beer compared to this:
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1042183068734418945
    Bloody hell, that’s an impressive amount of money.

    I suspect that a lot of people around the world are going to be in big trouble with this one.
    Spending over $10m a month on "stuff" is going it!
    That passage in Bonfire of the Vanities when he describes how he has to earn an absolute minimum of $1m/year to survive, let alone thrive, is very good. Goodness knows what that $1m would be, inflation-adjusted today.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    LONDON — The U.K. is preparing to throw a new Brexit demand into the Irish border mix: democracy.

    According to three senior officials from the U.K. and EU27, Theresa May’s team are exploring ways to insert the “consent principle” into the EU’s proposed Northern Ireland backstop — the insurance plan that is intended to avoid a hard border in all circumstances.

    The move is part of a two-pronged diplomatic assault to heavily modify the backstop — which both sides agreed to in principle last December — so that May can sell it to her own party and to the Democratic Unionist MPs whose votes prop up her government......

    ......As part of the de-dramatization efforts, Brussels is willing to let the U.K. police the internal customs border should it ever be established, officials said. In London, this offer is treated with derision. “It’s very gracious of them to let us use our own officials to patrol a border within our own country,” one official said. “But we don’t want anyone doing those checks.”


    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-irish-border-brexit-assault-on-eu-demands/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.

    It will probably not be EFTA/EEA in actuality but very close to it nonetheless during the transition period with a work permit and study place on arrival requirement
  • MattW said:

    Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
    What is your source for that claim?

    Someone is bullshitting somewhere.

    According to the Apple website they employ 22,000 across Europe, of which 6,000 are in Ireland, 2,465 in France and 2,537 in Germany.
    https://www.apple.com/uk/job-creation/

    Someone is comparing direct Apple Employees in Ireland with the entire "App Store Ecosystem" in those other countries.

    (PS
    Is it someone cherry picking from, or not understanding, this rather confusing piece in the Telegraph from Rhiannon Williams:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12113065/Apple-responsible-for-242000-iOS-related-jobs-in-the-UK.html

    A series of category errors.)
    Thanks. I did vaguely wonder because Apple has in the past made a big point of its Cork operation being more real than some of the brass plate intellectual property repositories you see. Nonetheless, 14 billion Euros for 6,000 jobs is not that good a deal (well, it is now they get the money back).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    MattW said:

    Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
    What is your source for that claim?

    Someone is bullshitting somewhere.

    According to the Apple website they employ 22,000 across Europe, of which 6,000 are in Ireland, 2,465 in France and 2,537 in Germany.
    https://www.apple.com/uk/job-creation/

    Someone is comparing direct Apple Employees in Ireland with the entire "App Store Ecosystem" in those other countries.

    (PS
    Is it someone cherry picking from, or not understanding, this rather confusing piece in the Telegraph from Rhiannon Williams:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12113065/Apple-responsible-for-242000-iOS-related-jobs-in-the-UK.html

    A series of category errors.)
    Thanks. I did vaguely wonder because Apple has in the past made a big point of its Cork operation being more real than some of the brass plate intellectual property repositories you see. Nonetheless, 14 billion Euros for 6,000 jobs is not that good a deal (well, it is now they get the money back).
    That 14 billion is the back payments. Apple says it has paid $1.5billion to Ireland over a 3 year period to 2017.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093

    MattW said:

    Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
    What is your source for that claim?

    Someone is bullshitting somewhere.

    According to the Apple website they employ 22,000 across Europe, of which 6,000 are in Ireland, 2,465 in France and 2,537 in Germany.
    https://www.apple.com/uk/job-creation/

    Someone is comparing direct Apple Employees in Ireland with the entire "App Store Ecosystem" in those other countries.

    (PS
    Is it someone cherry picking from, or not understanding, this rather confusing piece in the Telegraph from Rhiannon Williams:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12113065/Apple-responsible-for-242000-iOS-related-jobs-in-the-UK.html

    A series of category errors.)
    Thanks. I did vaguely wonder because Apple has in the past made a big point of its Cork operation being more real than some of the brass plate intellectual property repositories you see. Nonetheless, 14 billion Euros for 6,000 jobs is not that good a deal (well, it is now they get the money back).
    Cheers. Apols for the slight abruptness .. ran out of editing time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pakistan 3 runs for 2 wickets. Not the best of starts.
  • Of course. The new offer is exactly the same as the original in legal form, but dressed up to look nicer. Didn’t stop some on here proclaiming that a deal had already been done.

    May is going to tell the EU that the NI backstop will not get past the DUP. Will they listen? I doubt it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.

    It will probably not be EFTA/EEA in actuality but very close to it nonetheless during the transition period with a work permit and study place on arrival requirement
    I still don’t think you understand.

    If the withdrawal agreement is signed, there will be NO CHANGE during the transition. There will be full free movement until we end the transition.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited September 2018
    Eh! Je suis leur chef, il fallait bien les suivre!
  • Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.

    It will probably not be EFTA/EEA in actuality but very close to it nonetheless during the transition period with a work permit and study place on arrival requirement
    I still don’t think you understand.

    If the withdrawal agreement is signed, there will be NO CHANGE during the transition. There will be full free movement until we end the transition.
    He doesn’t understand at all. Just like his heroine, he just repeats the phrases he has been programmed wifh.
  • Serves him right. He has behaved like an absolute fool. His idea that the Brexit deal can be changed later is a total, self-serving lie.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    MattW said:

    Take back control. Someone pointed out recently that beggar-my-neighbour corporation tax rates might attract brass plates to a country but often the jobs don't follow. Apple employs about 6,000 people in Ireland and over 100,000 in each of Holland, France and Germany. Still at least Ireland might make a slight profit on the deal when they get the state aid back.
    What is your source for that claim?

    Someone is bullshitting somewhere.

    According to the Apple website they employ 22,000 across Europe, of which 6,000 are in Ireland, 2,465 in France and 2,537 in Germany.
    https://www.apple.com/uk/job-creation/

    Someone is comparing direct Apple Employees in Ireland with the entire "App Store Ecosystem" in those other countries.

    (PS
    Is it someone cherry picking from, or not understanding, this rather confusing piece in the Telegraph from Rhiannon Williams:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12113065/Apple-responsible-for-242000-iOS-related-jobs-in-the-UK.html

    A series of category errors.)
    Thanks. I did vaguely wonder because Apple has in the past made a big point of its Cork operation being more real than some of the brass plate intellectual property repositories you see. Nonetheless, 14 billion Euros for 6,000 jobs is not that good a deal (well, it is now they get the money back).
    its 6000 jobs they didnt have

    and its the rest of the EU thats footing the bill since this is tax income that should have been paid in other countries
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.

    It will probably not be EFTA/EEA in actuality but very close to it nonetheless during the transition period with a work permit and study place on arrival requirement
    I still don’t think you understand.

    If the withdrawal agreement is signed, there will be NO CHANGE during the transition. There will be full free movement until we end the transition.
    That depends, Barnier has made no statement of concern about a work permit on arrival requirement (similar to the transition controls we could have had in 2004) his main concern has been more alignment on services is needed compared to Chequers
  • A vat of popcorn is needed:

    1. Momentum have lost control over the project. An affirmative ballot proposal to democratise the existing trigger ballot BUT maintain the onus is on proving you want the MP out first is perfect. There is no prospect of any but the most extreme cases getting deselected

    2. The restoration of the union influence in the leadership is brilliant. Even Unite led by mad Len are made up of members who aren't mad. So thats the end of the Voldemort bid for power - and sadly for TSE probably removes as even a theoretical option the rise of Diane Abbott to the leadership

    3. The Brexit constitutional crisis is brewing up nicely. Chequers is dead in Europe but still alive enough to creation huge ruptions in the Tory party. An impossible Irish position for a government only in office thanks to the NI Bigot party.

    I cannot see how ANY position will pass parliament. Chequers won't. No Deal won't - I know its the default but expect a vote banning the government from allowing that to happen. A People's Vote won't. A General Election won't. Yet one of these must happen and quickly.

    Entertaining though a VONC leading to a very minority Corbyn government also leading to a VONC leading to PM Corbyn going into a snap election is, there are several flaming hoops of fire that would have to be passed through first. What seems most likely of all things possible is that the UK asks for and is granted an extension to Article 50. Who the PM will be at that point is up for debate, but with no deal possible on any deal its going to be fun finding out
  • HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    If Chequers (modified) were voted down, and May said 'alright, it really is NO DEAL' then I think a successful VONC could be possible. Note what the likes of Dominic Grieve are hinting in their absolute opposition to a crash-out.

    Personally I think the only realistic response to the failure of Chequers would be to move to EFTA/EEA and see if we can sort things out from there without all the absurd deadlines etc. EFTA/EEA I think would pass the Commons with a sigh of relief. May could even remain PM if she had sufficient brass neck.

    It will probably not be EFTA/EEA in actuality but very close to it nonetheless during the transition period with a work permit and study place on arrival requirement
    I still don’t think you understand.

    If the withdrawal agreement is signed, there will be NO CHANGE during the transition. There will be full free movement until we end the transition.
    That depends, Barnier has made no statement of concern about a work permit on arrival requirement (similar to the transition controls we could have had in 2004) his main concern has been more alignment on services is needed compared to Chequers
    For about the millionth time, the problem the EU have with Chequers is the customs partnership. Without that, there is no Chequers.
  • The government's situation is quite complicated. They need to signal Deal-or-Car-Crash to the EU to get concessions for a good deal, but Deal-or-Remain to the ERG to prevent them from trying to burn the deal down.

    I think the upshot is that you shouldn't take anything they say seriously as a predictor of what they'd actually do, except to the extent that saying something actually boxes them in to doing it.
  • Dozens of Labour MPs are expected to stay away from party's annual conference

    MPs are set to shun Labour conference amid anger over the anti-Semitism crisis and efforts to deselect them.

    Moderates are vowing to stay away from the gathering in Liverpool, which kicks off this weekend, saying the atmosphere in the party is ‘sickening’.

    Other politicians told MailOnline they were not prepared to be treated as ‘second class’ members after the leadership barred them from accessing the conference floor.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6183999/MPs-SHUN-Labour-conference-amid-antisemitism-crisis-hard-left-deselection-campaign.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Roger said:
    Hmmm Not so sure anyone should pay any attention to this woman.. She fucked him, so what???. It didn't seem to bother her at the time, hell hath no fury...
    So he paid her $150,000 to keep it quiet? Perhaps he doesn't think 'so what'?

    When I've seen her interviewed she comes across as level headed and charming - not something generally said of mushroom head.....
    TBH, not very impressed by either party to the deal.....
    She is definitely the real baddie though, greedy *****
  • Serves him right. He has behaved like an absolute fool. His idea that the Brexit deal can be changed later is a total, self-serving lie.
    Any deal can be changed, altered or canned if HM elected government decides and legislation goes through the HOC and HOL, especially if it is a manifesto commitment of a party elected at a GE. Indeed I expect that sometime in the future there will be a move to rejoin but of course once we have left that does become far more difficult. Indeed that is why those wanting a second referendum are getting increasingly alarmed and panicked
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I get why politicians have decided that housing is the next hot button topic. I have this lurking suspicion that they are about to start fighting the last war again. It’s far from clear to me that there remains a housing crisis that requires additional action.

    Next you will be saying why don't the peasants live in tents
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Someone needs to tell Pakistan that this isn’t a Test match.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    A vat of popcorn is needed:

    1. Momentum have lost control over the project. An affirmative ballot proposal to democratise the existing trigger ballot BUT maintain the onus is on proving you want the MP out first is perfect. There is no prospect of any but the most extreme cases getting deselected

    2. The restoration of the union influence in the leadership is brilliant. Even Unite led by mad Len are made up of members who aren't mad. So thats the end of the Voldemort bid for power - and sadly for TSE probably removes as even a theoretical option the rise of Diane Abbott to the leadership

    3. The Brexit constitutional crisis is brewing up nicely. Chequers is dead in Europe but still alive enough to creation huge ruptions in the Tory party. An impossible Irish position for a government only in office thanks to the NI Bigot party.

    I cannot see how ANY position will pass parliament. Chequers won't. No Deal won't - I know its the default but expect a vote banning the government from allowing that to happen. A People's Vote won't. A General Election won't. Yet one of these must happen and quickly.

    Entertaining though a VONC leading to a very minority Corbyn government also leading to a VONC leading to PM Corbyn going into a snap election is, there are several flaming hoops of fire that would have to be passed through first. What seems most likely of all things possible is that the UK asks for and is granted an extension to Article 50. Who the PM will be at that point is up for debate, but with no deal possible on any deal its going to be fun finding out

    Six impossible things before breakfast?
  • A vat of popcorn is needed:

    1. Momentum have lost control over the project. An affirmative ballot proposal to democratise the existing trigger ballot BUT maintain the onus is on proving you want the MP out first is perfect. There is no prospect of any but the most extreme cases getting deselected

    2. The restoration of the union influence in the leadership is brilliant. Even Unite led by mad Len are made up of members who aren't mad. So thats the end of the Voldemort bid for power - and sadly for TSE probably removes as even a theoretical option the rise of Diane Abbott to the leadership

    3. The Brexit constitutional crisis is brewing up nicely. Chequers is dead in Europe but still alive enough to creation huge ruptions in the Tory party. An impossible Irish position for a government only in office thanks to the NI Bigot party.

    I cannot see how ANY position will pass parliament. Chequers won't. No Deal won't - I know its the default but expect a vote banning the government from allowing that to happen. A People's Vote won't. A General Election won't. Yet one of these must happen and quickly.

    Entertaining though a VONC leading to a very minority Corbyn government also leading to a VONC leading to PM Corbyn going into a snap election is, there are several flaming hoops of fire that would have to be passed through first. What seems most likely of all things possible is that the UK asks for and is granted an extension to Article 50. Who the PM will be at that point is up for debate, but with no deal possible on any deal its going to be fun finding out

    I would not describe any of this as fun to be honest. It is deeply depressing
  • Sandpit said:

    Someone needs to tell Pakistan that this isn’t a Test match.

    Bookies been on the blower?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    that is why those wanting a second referendum are getting increasingly alarmed and panicked

    Eh?

    They are increasingly confident and assured.

    It's the Brexiteers who have come over all Corporal Jones...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    Pakistan 3 runs for 2 wickets. Not the best of starts.

    Didn't know there was any international cricket going on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pakistan 3 runs for 2 wickets. Not the best of starts.

    Didn't know there was any international cricket going on.
    There certainly is. I’m in the ground!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited September 2018
    Scott_P said:

    that is why those wanting a second referendum are getting increasingly alarmed and panicked

    Eh?

    They are increasingly confident and assured.

    It's the Brexiteers who have come over all Corporal Jones...
    It is not going to happen unless TM decides and she would be VNOC and out in a heartbeat.

    Because you keep repeating ad infinitum your position it does not make it happen
  • Serves him right. He has behaved like an absolute fool. His idea that the Brexit deal can be changed later is a total, self-serving lie.
    Any deal can be changed, altered or canned if HM elected government decides and legislation goes through the HOC and HOL, especially if it is a manifesto commitment of a party elected at a GE. Indeed I expect that sometime in the future there will be a move to rejoin but of course once we have left that does become far more difficult. Indeed that is why those wanting a second referendum are getting increasingly alarmed and panicked
    This was discussed yesterday and your conclusion is wrong. Under the Vienna convention it is not permissible to unilaterally denounce an international treaty (such as the withdrawal agreement) unless the treaty grants that right - and the EU wll not agree to this. So the backstop, for example, which would stop a proper FTA agreement later can be held over the UK indefinitely. Gove is meant to be smart so he should know this.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It is not going to happen unless TM decides and she would be VNOC and out in a heartbeat.

    Neither of which would prevent it happening
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Serves him right. He has behaved like an absolute fool. His idea that the Brexit deal can be changed later is a total, self-serving lie.
    Any deal can be changed, altered or canned if HM elected government decides and legislation goes through the HOC and HOL, especially if it is a manifesto commitment of a party elected at a GE. Indeed I expect that sometime in the future there will be a move to rejoin but of course once we have left that does become far more difficult. Indeed that is why those wanting a second referendum are getting increasingly alarmed and panicked
    This was discussed yesterday and your conclusion is wrong. Under the Vienna convention it is not permissible to unilaterally denounce an international treaty (such as the withdrawal agreement) unless the treaty grants that right - and the EU wll not agree to this. So the backstop, for example, which would stop a proper FTA agreement later can be held over the UK indefinitely. Gove is meant to be smart so he should know this.
    Perhaps that's his aim I would be amazed if any of the Brexiters remembered why they wanted to Brexit in the first place.
This discussion has been closed.