Way forward - Tories need to send the letters in to 1922 tomorrow, May needs to stand down straight the way.
The Tories should rally round David Davis as interim leader no later than the Tory conference - Davis presses on with the Canada style deal he'd been working on (and the EU offered) months ago.
Davis stands down next year and Tories elect a new leader to take them though to 2022.
I hope you have a long and rewarding life for many many years to come.
But when that sad day does finally arrive please ensure that you have asked for your brain to be donated to science because humanity really needs to know what is going on in there and learn from it.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
It's not the FCO, but rather Number 10's insistence on getting rid of voices other than Yes men.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
It is direct interference in UK politics and wholly unacceptable
Truth hurts, Mr G. Macron's comments were accurate IMO.
Maybe but entirely inappropriate. Do not forget I have consistently attacked Boris, but I do not expect it from the leader of another Country
Having read Macron's comments I have to say that they just express what I have always about Brexit so I do not find them inappropriate or shocking and the bit where he said "it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars" is 100% on the money.
Since Mrs May never said Brexit would be easy with lots of money, then you cannot construe Macron's points as criticism of her. Boris or JRM look, to me, to be better candidates for Macron's words.
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it inconsistent? Weren't the comments along the lines of 'some of it's nice but there's still much to do'? Which id read as diplomatic speak for 'it's bollocks'.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
It is direct interference in UK politics and wholly unacceptable
Truth hurts, Mr G. Macron's comments were accurate IMO.
Maybe but entirely inappropriate. Do not forget I have consistently attacked Boris, but I do not expect it from the leader of another Country
Boris is a muppet, but he's our muppet. Doesn't mean that he won't end up as Prime Minister mind you.
Rather hope not.
Really really hope not
Oh absolutely. I have significant trust issues with a man that i would hesitate to leave alone in a room with my wife, daughter or even mother-in-law. Apparently.
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it inconsistent? Weren't the comments along the lines of 'some of it's nice but there's still much to do'? Which id read as diplomatic speak for 'it's bollocks'.
Also we have been trying to get the EU to relax the four freedoms which they have not been willing to do as they weren’t when Cameron tried to renegotiate from within.
Technical glitch earlier. The path to no deal is clear. Any other route takes a fundamental change from one party or another. A change for which there is no sign whatsoever today.
The problem is we don't want to admit we made an error with Brexit due to listening to dim witted demagogues,
Well then, the demagogues will win. It has always been quite clear that, like any club, you are either IN or OUT.
The French President isn't "the EU", and you don't get to avoid national embarrassment by leaving the EU.
So it’s not a club, it’s a prison.
"There is no planet B", as Macron also said.
Whatever that means?
He said it in the context of the environment in his speech to Congress, but it applies to politics too. You can't move to a different world and escape the rest of humanity.
No, but you should be able to become N Zealand to someone’s Australia.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
It is direct interference in UK politics and wholly unacceptable
Truth hurts, Mr G. Macron's comments were accurate IMO.
Maybe but entirely inappropriate. Do not forget I have consistently attacked Boris, but I do not expect it from the leader of another Country
Having read Macron's comments I have to say that they just express what I have always about Brexit so I do not find them inappropriate or shocking and the bit where he said "it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars" is 100% on the money.
Since Mrs May never said Brexit would be easy with lots of money, then you cannot construe Macron's points as criticism of her. Boris or JRM look, to me, to be better candidates for Macron's words.
Macron's words though are false. It's all contention. When such things are asserted as truth there's a problem. Macron has a problem
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it inconsistent? Weren't the comments along the lines of 'some of it's nice but there's still much to do'? Which id read as diplomatic speak for 'it's bollocks'.
Clearly May and her team did not read the EU's previous comments as "it's bollocks". The manner of the public rebuff to May today has probably not helped the chances of a deal nor made the EU look like reasonable people to negotiate with.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
It is direct interference in UK politics and wholly unacceptable
Truth hurts, Mr G. Macron's comments were accurate IMO.
Maybe but entirely inappropriate. Do not forget I have consistently attacked Boris, but I do not expect it from the leader of another Country
Boris is a muppet, but he's our muppet. Doesn't mean that he won't end up as Prime Minister mind you.
Rather hope not.
Really really hope not
Oh absolutely. I have significant trust issues with a man that i would hesitate to leave alone in a room with my wife, daughter or even mother-in-law. Apparently.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
It is their fault that we want the benefits of being in whilst being out?
It was NEVER going to work.
No.
But it is their fault that the very real advantages have been outweighed, however unfairly, in the public mind (and not just here) by the very significant negatives.
I still think if they had had the sense to lock Juncker up in an inebriates' home instead of making him President of the Commission on the recommendation of the EPP we would have voted in.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
The problem - and what ultimately tipped me to remain - is that we cannot have one without another, and we needed to be in to keep the crap to a minimum.
I can see the logic of that, and I was there too. But then Lisbon was rammed through without the promised vote and our ability to restrict the crap was hugely curtailed.
I might’ve lived with that had the shenanigans not gone in in wriggling out of that vote. Ever closer union was always going to trump democracy and that’s not healthy at all, and just stores up worse trouble.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it inconsistent? Weren't the comments along the lines of 'some of it's nice but there's still much to do'? Which id read as diplomatic speak for 'it's bollocks'.
Clearly May and her team did not read the EU's previous comments as "it's bollocks". The manner of the public rebuff to May today has probably not helped the chances of a deal nor made the EU look like reasonable people to negotiate with.
No it hasn't, but that's pretty irrelevant now isn't it? The EU seem committed to risking us crashing out, with blowback on them, rather than concede on anything meaningful. Whatever flaws our approach has had - which have been copiously listed already - we have made serious concessions as the Tory ructions over those concessions have demonstrated, but the EU still don't think it is enough and the government cannot offer them what they want in exchange - they have miscalculated, or else are far more confident than they should be in what the UK might end up doing in the chaos of no deal.
WIth Chequers ruled out, reasonably or not, it's time to try something else. If not no deal then Canada+ or whatever. All have problems, but either we seek something a potentially unreasonable EU will accept and see if we can accept that, or we call it quits.
May is not in a position to do either, ergo it is time for her to go unfortunately, even with the potential horror show replacements. She cannot do any good in working more for a deal no one wants.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
And that was in Lisbon that we were not allowed to vote on. So the mechanics of this are down to circumventing the U.K. electorate. Thanks Tony and Gordon.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
It is direct interference in UK politics and wholly unacceptable
Truth hurts, Mr G. Macron's comments were accurate IMO.
Maybe but entirely inappropriate. Do not forget I have consistently attacked Boris, but I do not expect it from the leader of another Country
Having read Macron's comments I have to say that they just express what I have always about Brexit so I do not find them inappropriate or shocking and the bit where he said "it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars" is 100% on the money.
Since Mrs May never said Brexit would be easy with lots of money, then you cannot construe Macron's points as criticism of her. Boris or JRM look, to me, to be better candidates for Macron's words.
I think that is fair but it would be better in everyone's interests at this stage if Macron kept these thoughts to himself. It gives the impression of interference in another country's affairs and is not helpful.
The French President isn't "the EU", and you don't get to avoid national embarrassment by leaving the EU.
So it’s not a club, it’s a prison.
"There is no planet B", as Macron also said.
Whatever that means?
He said it in the context of the environment in his speech to Congress, but it applies to politics too. You can't move to a different world and escape the rest of humanity.
No, but you should be able to become N Zealand to someone’s Australia.
Australia and New Zealand have free movement, indeed New Zealanders are one of Australias biggest sources of immigrants.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
And that was in Lisbon that we were not allowed to vote on. So the mechanics of this are down to circumventing the U.K. electorate. Thanks Tony and Gordon.
They could easily have ignored Lisbon, had they wished. They do it regularly - witness Canada. They chose not to.
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it inconsistent? Weren't the comments along the lines of 'some of it's nice but there's still much to do'? Which id read as diplomatic speak for 'it's bollocks'.
Clearly May and her team did not read the EU's previous comments as "it's bollocks". The manner of the public rebuff to May today has probably not helped the chances of a deal nor made the EU look like reasonable people to negotiate with.
No it hasn't, but that's pretty irrelevant now isn't it? The EU seem committed to risking us crashing out, with blowback on them, rather than concede on anything meaningful. Whatever flaws our approach has had - which have been copiously listed already - we have made serious concessions as the Tory ructions over those concessions have demonstrated, but the EU still don't think it is enough and the government cannot offer them what they want in exchange - they have miscalculated, or else are far more confident than they should be in what the UK might end up doing in the chaos of no deal.
WIth Chequers ruled out, reasonably or not, it's time to try something else. If not no deal then Canada+ or whatever. All have problems, but either we seek something a potentially unreasonable EU will accept and see if we can accept that, or we call it quits.
May is not in a position to do either, ergo it is time for her to go unfortunately, even with the potential horror show replacements. She cannot do any good in working more for a deal no one wants.
We have made concessions in an echo chamber within the Tory Party; there is no correlation between that and actual concessions with our negotiating partner.
The sooner we realise that half the world is no longer pink the better off we will be.
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
There is a lot of truth in that. We cannot - and should not - go back, we have to go forward. It has to be to a place where people have more control. That means they must be able to get rid of those who govern them. That is why Brexit is important.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
Indeed. But that’s not a very self confident place to be is it? At heart they are being as awkward as they can be because the fear that keeps them up at night is that a nice clean easy successful separation will encourager les autres.
But if that’s the case - err - why not adapt so les autres don’t get tempted?
Ultimately they are doing passive aggressive and wielding the stick because they are not very sure if love and hugs can keep it all together. At present they have an external focus to bind them, but then what?
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
There is a lot of truth in that. We cannot - and should not - go back, we have to go forward. It has to be to a place where people have more control. That means they must be able to get rid of those who govern them. That is why Brexit is important.
They could always do that and Indeed did so in June 2016. You don't need to pull the emergency cord to prove that you can pull the emergency cord.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
And that was in Lisbon that we were not allowed to vote on. So the mechanics of this are down to circumventing the U.K. electorate. Thanks Tony and Gordon.
They could easily have ignored Lisbon, had they wished. They do it regularly - witness Canada. They chose not to.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
Yes, and if they provoke an avoidable trade rupture and a banking collapse to which the only proferred solution from Brussels is full federalism it is hard to imagine there will not be some cracks in that solidarity.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
And that was in Lisbon that we were not allowed to vote on. So the mechanics of this are down to circumventing the U.K. electorate. Thanks Tony and Gordon.
They could easily have ignored Lisbon, had they wished. They do it regularly - witness Canada. They chose not to.
This is just gaslighting. When we invoked Article 50, did we ask for longer than two years to negotiate? We could have done so and tried to get an agreement up front to treat it as a five year process, for example. It would even be compatible with Lisbon because the A50 period can be extended.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
They don't have to hurt themselves by provoking no deal in order to 'not help' us (I am in no way saying they are the only factor leading to no deal). They are all clear that any deal would be worse than EU membership, therefore some deal is still better than no deal for them or us, since we will already be 'suffering' without membership, and therefore they can afford to be more flexible rather than engage in a pissing contest, which is what you and others are suggesting the EU are doing by seeking to be seen not to be 'helping' us, since it isn't helping us to come to a deal, it helps both sides to come to a deal, that's why openly we all want one.
Taking your logic that something we would be happy with would be 'helping' us, they should never have entered into negotiations in the first place. It's also another of the unfortunate number of examples where defenders of the EU make it seem more childish and vindictive then even some leavers think it is.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
That's a bit binary. If the EU doesn't feel the need to have good relations with a neighbour then fair enough. Note for the dribbling Quisling fraternity on here: that doesn't imply that the UK deserves the moon on a stick or to indulge in cakeatery. But, as others have pointed out, if we're now into a win/lose negotiation, they're at risk of their victory being rather pyrrhic.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
Mostly it is priced in already. A successful deal allowing Single Market to continue, at least for the WA, would have a major Sterling rally.
If EU leaders now think, with Keynes type foresight, where THEY might want the EU- UK relationship to be in a decade or two, then they need to think hard this autumn about where we are heading. Chequers, whatever else, represents a Prime Minister who now recognises that across many key goods sectors, divergence on standards is a chimera which only sounds good to those who have not bothered to understand what friction free trade entails in the 21st century, have never read an FTA, and who privilege theoretical autonomy over real free trade, and who, as I say, have little or no understanding of trade in services.
The 27 ought, in my view, to have the sense to build on that, and build on the good elements of Chequers on future governance arrangements, and reflect profoundly on the depth and amity of the economic relationship they want.. If they do not, I think we shall be looking back from 2038 wondering why the rupture became so much deeper than was desired by any of the main players
They're screwed, and deservedly so. The Irish people are great, their politicians are well short of shabby. Brexit is most threatening to them. They should have worked out how to deal with that.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
Yes, and if they provoke an avoidable trade rupture and a banking collapse to which the only proferred solution from Brussels is full federalism it is hard to imagine there will not be some cracks in that solidarity.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that it's the EU that is limiting us to two.
And that was in Lisbon that we were not allowed to vote on. So the mechanics of this are down to circumventing the U.K. electorate. Thanks Tony and Gordon.
They could easily have ignored Lisbon, had they wished. They do it regularly - witness Canada. They chose not to.
This is just gaslighting. When we invoked Article 50, did we ask for longer than two years to negotiate? We could have done so and tried to get an agreement up front to treat it as a five year process, for example. It would even be compatible with Lisbon because the A50 period can be extended.
Possibly, but on the other hand they were adamant that no negotiations could start till A50 was invoked.
Lisbon is crap all round on this and I’d be astonished if the 27 didn’t revise it at the next round of treaties, given what all have learned.
Of course nobody actually thought it would be used........
(Well, in fairness I think the main author, Lord whoever,thought it might be some kind of Belarus style state in a far distant future leaving as the example. Not a big well established W European democracy).
There has been a failure of diplomacy. The EU's comprehensive rejection of May's proposals today seems inconsistent with some of the recent public (never mind private) comments that EU leaders have made about the plan's potential. The EU seem disingenuous in the way they are negotiating and that may well harden anti EU feeling including amongst some remainers and undecideds.
Is it in
Clearly May and her team did not read the EU's previous comments as "it's bollocks". The manner of the public rebuff to May today has probably not helped the chances of a deal nor made the EU look like reasonable people to negotiate with.
No it hasn't, but that's pretty irrelevant now isn't it? The EU seem committed to risking us crashing out, with blowback on them, rather than concede on anything meaningful. Whatever flaws our approach has had - which have been copiously listed already - we have made serious concessions as the Tory ructions over those concessions have demonstrated, but the EU still don't think it is enough and the government cannot offer them what they want in exchange - they have miscalculated, or else are far more confident than they should be in what the UK might end up doing in the chaos of no deal.
WIth Chequers ruled out, reasonably or not, it's time to try something else. If not no deal then Canada+ or whatever. All have problems, but either we seek something a potentially unreasonable EU will accept and see if we can accept that, or we call it quits.
May is not in a position to do either, ergo it is time for her to go unfortunately, even with the potential horror show replacements. She cannot do any good in working more for a deal no one wants.
We have made concessions in an echo chamber within the Tory Party; there is no correlation between that and actual concessions with our negotiating partner.
The sooner we realise that half the world is no longer pink the better off we will be.
A very very lazy argument. I am immediately suspicious when people reach for suggestions of post imperial inadequacy as the root cause of all problems, as it is usually wrong, and usually a simplistic way of dismissing a side swiftly. Moreover your point is not true - whether or not the concessions we have offered are reasonable or sufficient for the EU does not alter that May at least, formally on behalf of the UK, has offered concessions. It may be quite reasonable for the EU to reject those, but the concessions have still been offered. Indeed, the EU has made comments about progress in certain areas, while still resisting the overall offer, which indicates they too acknowledge concessions have been made. Just not enough.
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
There is a lot of truth in that. We cannot - and should not - go back, we have to go forward. It has to be to a place where people have more control. That means they must be able to get rid of those who govern them. That is why Brexit is important.
Yeah but the fantasy is core to the Brexit contradiction. More control is possible in the abstract but if the desire to control is outweighed by the perceived benefits of a close relationship you have a problem. I don't think leavers are stupid. I do think they mostly misunderstand what they have let themselves in for. I would never say it's stupid to dump a well paid job to go off to write your novel, so you can control your life and be bound by obligations of others. But if you don't like novels much and do like the nice lifestyle of comfortable house, car and knowing you can put food on the table, you should think through the implications.
Now I think you can mitigate a lot of the damage of Brexit , and be clear there are no practical upsides, it's all downside, but in doing so you lose the entire point of Brexit, which is control. Actually you end up with less say.
Which makes Brexit an interesting conundrum, if a relentlessly dreary outcome.
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
fog in channel, Europe cut off.
This was only funny because there was some truth in it. The pound is stable because its the pound. I don't believe you've ever met a currency trader if you think they have calmer heads than anyone really. The prevailing level of the pound has little to do with currency traders.
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
There is a lot of truth in that. We cannot - and should not - go back, we have to go forward. It has to be to a place where people have more control. That means they must be able to get rid of those who govern them. That is why Brexit is important.
Yeah but the fantasy is core to the Brexit contradiction. More control is possible in the abstract but if the desire to control is outweighed by the perceived benefits of a close relationship you have a problem. I don't think leavers are stupid but I don't think they mostly understand what they have let themselves and those that didn't vote that way in for. I would never say it's stupid to dump a well paid job to go off to write your novel. But if you don't like novels much and do like the nice lifestyle of comfortable house, car and knowing you can put food on the table, you should think through the implications.
Now I think you can mitigate a lot of the damage of Brexit , and be clear there are no practical upsides, it's all downside, but doing so loses the entire point of Brexit, which is control. Actually you end up with less say.
Which Brexit an interesting conundrum, if a relentlessly dreary.actual outcome.
Makes you wonder how the Remain campaign failed to convince over 17 million people that there are "no practical upsides" to Brexit?
Macron has faced the biggest domestic scandal of his presidency after one of his security officials was filmed, illegally dressed as a police officer, beating people on the edge of a demonstration. The row grew when it emerged that the president’s office had been informed of the misconduct at the time but had not reported it to police.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the hard-Brexit European Research Group of Tory MPs, said: “Is it an attempt to distract attention from the French senate interviewing his former bodyguard yesterday? It is not unknown for politicians to make outlandish claims to cover up a more interesting story.”
The Tory Brexiter Andrew Bridgen added: “It is a well-known British political truism that when you start insulting your opponents you have already lost the argument; perhaps we need to translate it into French?”
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
All the better for him not to be seen to be too closely involved so that May can stand down, Hunt steps in as interim Leader to get a deal, and then puts it back to the EU - they love a repackaged offer after the wrong answer was given after all.
Look at it with a cold eye and that's where we are. We want free trade but none of the political crap that comes with it.
Oh I am sure that can have free trade but none of the political c**p that comes with it. We simply have to leave, assemble a proper negotiating team and spend 7 to 10 years in intensive meetings to get something that the politicians can ratify over 2 to 3 years.
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
It took 10 years for the UK to integrate with the UK, it took 10 years for the Canadians to get a zero trade tariffs with the EU , 7 years with the Japanese, and we haven't even started except to annoy the EU commission to return us to pre-1970's existence
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
Mostly it is priced in already. A successful deal allowing Single Market to continue, at least for the WA, would have a major Sterling rally.
My guess is at least 10%. And I still expect to see it, despite today. But the mood of future relations are being set here and it is not good.
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
In fairness she's only just got a Foreign Secretary worth consulting.....
This is the best summary of all the millions of words about Brexit because it gets to its central contradiction:
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
There is a lot of truth in that. We cannot - and should not - go back, we have to go forward. It has to be to a place where people have more control. That means they must be able to get rid of those who govern them. That is why Brexit is important.
Yeah but the fantasy is core to the Brexit contradiction. More control is possible in the abstract but if the desire to control is outweighed by the perceived benefits of a close relationship you have a problem. I don't think leavers are stupid but I don't think they mostly understand what they have let themselves and those that didn't vote that way in for. I would never say it's stupid to dump a well paid job to go off to write your novel. But if you don't like novels much and do like the nice lifestyle of comfortable house, car and knowing you can put food on the table, you should think through the implications.
Now I think you can mitigate a lot of the damage of Brexit , and be clear there are no practical upsides, it's all downside, but doing so loses the entire point of Brexit, which is control. Actually you end up with less say.
Which Brexit an interesting conundrum, if a relentlessly dreary.actual outcome.
Makes you wonder how the Remain campaign failed to convince over 17 million people that there are "no practical upsides" to Brexit?
Because as the author and I allude to, fantasy won out. Problem is, fantasies are just that.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
And that is why it is time for May to go - someone needs to try to get Hard Brexit through, and if that fails No Brexit options start to open up, and she cannot do either.
Macron has faced the biggest domestic scandal of his presidency after one of his security officials was filmed, illegally dressed as a police officer, beating people on the edge of a demonstration. The row grew when it emerged that the president’s office had been informed of the misconduct at the time but had not reported it to police.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the hard-Brexit European Research Group of Tory MPs, said: “Is it an attempt to distract attention from the French senate interviewing his former bodyguard yesterday? It is not unknown for politicians to make outlandish claims to cover up a more interesting story.”
The Tory Brexiter Andrew Bridgen added: “It is a well-known British political truism that when you start insulting your opponents you have already lost the argument; perhaps we need to translate it into French?”
Charles Grant was of the view a long time ago that Ireland would be thrown under a bus. It would hardly seem untypical of Germany to pay lip service to small nation concerns and then do what most suits themselves. But this assumes that it's all about Merkel. In the end all 27 have to agree and she can't force them to. And it is but one narrative amidst a bewildering array.
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
All the better for him not to be seen to be too closely involved so that May can stand down, Hunt steps in as interim Leader to get a deal, and then puts it back to the EU - they love a repackaged offer after the wrong answer was given after all.
I would say at the moment he does look best placed to replace May. But it would still be better if we got this deal done. One of my many reservations with May is that she just doesn't listen. She sidelined both DD (understandable perhaps) and Boris. She is doing the same with Raab and, it appears, her current FS. This is not what is needed.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
fog in channel, Europe cut off.
This was only funny because there was some truth in it. The pound is stable because its the pound. I don't believe you've ever met a currency trader if you think they have calmer heads than anyone really. The prevailing level of the pound has little to do with currency traders.
Really ? Is that why it fell nearly 30% immediately after the referendum result? And why it has lurched back and forth in line with Brexit news ever since. The £ has not been a stable currency for many, many years.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
And that is why it is time for May to go - someone needs to try to get Hard Brexit through, and if that fails No Brexit options start to open up, and she cannot do either.
There is no Hard Brexit, there is only Stupid Brexit...
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
It's quite clear that many of the EU Establishment think that structures and processes are more important than democracy, security and living standards.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
Mostly it is priced in already. A successful deal allowing Single Market to continue, at least for the WA, would have a major Sterling rally.
My guess is at least 10%. And I still expect to see it, despite today. But the mood of future relations are being set here and it is not good.
Yes - that is in line with most forecasts but I remain unconvinced about today's theatrics.
There is no Hard Brexit, there is only Stupid Brexit...
Then it is time for someone to try Stupid Brexit, because until the options are exhausted not enough people are going to contemplate referendums or GEs to reverse Brexit. A delay is easier to justify, if possible
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
I would say the EU is not interested in a partnership of equals. Can't, not won't, but it comes to the same thing. Which means a partnership of unequals or no partnership at all. The last isn't viable so unequals it will be. We won't enjoy the vassal state. This is a good argument for Remain.
To be honest I have tried to play fair and assumed a deal was in the making. But after today's performance by the EU and in particular Macron's comments I am furious with the EU and their club.
What is wrong with what Macron said? It's true.
Yes, but the truth hurts.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
Yes, and if they provoke an avoidable trade rupture and a banking collapse to which the only proferred solution from Brussels is full federalism it is hard to imagine there will not be some cracks in that solidarity.
I do sometimes wonder if there’s been any stress testing or war gaming on what happens if the City is cut off to EU countries on Brexit day? It could all collapse very quickly, and the EU regulatory bureaucracy we’ve already seen to be slow to react when required.
Meanwhile, even as the Brexiteers collapse, they can console themselves with the thought that Remain Campaign II looks like it will be just as inept and tone-deaf as last time:
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
In fairness she's only just got a Foreign Secretary worth consulting.....
There is no Hard Brexit, there is only Stupid Brexit...
Then it is time for someone to try Stupid Brexit, because until the options are exhausted not enough people are going to contemplate referendums or GEs to reverse Brexit. A delay is easier to justify, if possible
Until somebody has the dangly bitties to kick the whole mess so far into the long grass that everyone forgets it even existed... .
Retail sales as a whole have increased by 19% but splitting that between the different types of retailer gives:
Food stores +8% Non-food stores +21% Internet +82% Petrol station +16%
Given that there have been numerous high profile retail chains stop trading I'm surprised that non-food stores have done so well - there must be some businesses which have done very well during the last five years.
I'm also surprised to see the amount of automotive fuel increase so much with cars becoming more fuel efficient, hybrids etc.
I am sure that Myanmar is all very important etc but should Hunt not have been on hand for May to consult in Salzburg? It troubles me that she thinks her government is all about her. We saw it again and again in 2017 and we are seeing it again now. Hunt is a clever guy who is good at appearing emollient whilst remaining tough underneath. Ask the NHS Unions how much fun he is to deal with.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
In fairness she's only just got a Foreign Secretary worth consulting.....
Very true but he's in Myanmar. It's a bit weird.
Wonder if this trip was arranged while Boris was still in post? Under those circumstances it makes a lot of sense.
We knew Chequers was not something that the EU would agree, right back in July. Why did she squander another 2 months on it?
Overall, May seems a pretty pisspoor negotiator, probably due to her lack of people skills.
For the EUs reaction to be a surprise and May to be embarrassed like this, there must have been a failure of diplomacy. Whitehall is not working or no10 is in the bunker. That’s worrying.
Yes, tend to agree. Cock up or conspiracy? Cock up I’d say.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
They need this to go badly pour encourager les autres. The only debate is how badly.
They need it to go badly for us and reasonably well or at least not too badly for them.
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
A Union's Strength is solidarity of its members, not in helping former members. That is what they are for.
The EU's point should be improving democracy, security and living standards in its member states. It's not obvious how any of these will be achieved if the EU fails to conclude a deal with the UK.
It is fairly simple. The EU27 think their interest is best served by protecting the long term integrity of the Single Market. We may disagree, but that is their view of their own interests.
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
It's quite clear that many of the EU Establishment think that structures and processes are more important than democracy, security and living standards.
I think that is explained by something my father told me years ago. In most European countries, the legal tradition is that everything is illegal unless a law is passed to make it legal. In England, the tradition is broadly opposite. He told me that was why most Brits are so bl***dy minded, and why the EU views structures and processes as a benefit not increased shackles. Of course its probably b*l**cks. Mr Meeks will probably point out that I'm wrong again.
Meanwhile, even as the Brexiteers collapse, they can console themselves with the thought that Remain Campaign II looks like it will be just as inept and tone-deaf as last time:
Is anyone, anywhere actually trying to make a positive case for EU membership?
All I’m hearing is that the stupid deplorables made the wrong choice last time, or that the EU is a prison, or Hotel California...
If there’s a second referendum, the Remain side will need to persuade people who voted Leave last time to change their minds - or are they hoping that demographic change and differential turnout will see them over the line 51-49 which will somehow settle the issue forever?
Today's retail sales stats again shows the seemingly unlimited desire in this country to spend money - something which isn't happening in the rest of Europe:
With government finances improving, unemployment at a 40+ year low and both pay rises and inflation perhaps showing tendencies to increase the media would usually be proclaiming that the UK was enjoying a 'boom'.
Interestingly there has been no big move against the £ as yet - either the currency traders have missed it or they don't believe it is the end of the road. In my experience they tend to have calmer heads than much of the froth on here on both sides.
fog in channel, Europe cut off.
This was only funny because there was some truth in it. The pound is stable because its the pound. I don't believe you've ever met a currency trader if you think they have calmer heads than anyone really. The prevailing level of the pound has little to do with currency traders.
Really ? Is that why it fell nearly 30% immediately after the referendum result? And why it has lurched back and forth in line with Brexit news ever since. The £ has not been a stable currency for many, many years.
Yes, really, in terms of what I said.
(Do you understand FX markets? It might be arguable that the pound hasn't moved at all. The pound has had a great deal of volatility, but it's not changed so much against many currencies for a long time)
I will contradict you directly. The pound has in fact been a stable currency for many, many years.
Dare the Tory PCP allow her to go against Corbyn in another PMQ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp to 10 Downing Street, or if you are a Tory MP, a letter to the Chief Whip...
Dare the Tory PCP allow her to go against Corbyn in another PMQ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp to 10 Downing Street, or if you are a Tory MP, a letter to the Chief Whip...
Dare the Tory PCP allow her to go against Corbyn in another PMQ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp to 10 Downing Street, or if you are a Tory MP, a letter to the Chief Whip...
She would win a vnoc in the party
Good, then that rules out one option on the table at least, rather than this weird limbo we are in.
Dare the Tory PCP allow her to go against Corbyn in another PMQ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp to 10 Downing Street, or if you are a Tory MP, a letter to the Chief Whip...
If you're a Tory MP, a letter to the chair of the 1922 committee ...
There were a few seconds of silence as everyone took this in. It almost felt intrusive to observe the prime minister visibly falling apart. A public humiliation on the epic scale of both her refusal to accept the reversal of the dementia tax during the general election campaign and her car-crash leader’s speech at last year’s Tory party conference. Then May composed herself as best she could and invited the kicking she knew was coming her way. Bring it on. Everyone else had had a go so she might as well let the media have theirs. The martyrdom of St Theresa.
I'd have thought you would've rather enjoyed Theresa's humiliation?
Yes Gin, indyref2 coming up
Nicola Sturgeon today: "That seems to me to be tantamount to jumping off a cliff with a blindfold on and having no idea where the landing place is. And that is in my view as unacceptable as a no deal option." Oops, obviously about Brexit, but it could also be taken in another context...
Comments
Since Mrs May never said Brexit would be easy with lots of money, then you cannot construe Macron's points as criticism of her. Boris or JRM look, to me, to be better candidates for Macron's words.
But, I still don’t get the EU’s longer thinking. This is all well and good and good knock about stuff for headlines in Le Monde or die Welt tomorrow, and good tactics to March 29 and up to 2020. But then what? The danger is they don’t create Canada to their USA but more of a suspicious Japan to their China.
Evening Malc.
I'd have thought you would've rather enjoyed Theresa's humiliation?
A decade of hard effort is all that is needed to give us something that is inferior to what we have now.
The vote to leave the EU was about restoring a sense of control in a world from which many felt increasingly marginalized, ignored and excluded.
Economic and cultural changes made Leave voters feel like “strangers in their own home.” Those who once saw themselves at the nation’s “heartland" have not only become alienated, they have also been socially stigmatized and shamed.
The fantasy of Brexit is therefore bound up with a nostalgic vision of restoring status, belonging and lost control. It dangles a fantasy of the recovery of that which was lost, but since nostalgia is always of an imagined idealized past, recovery is ultimately impossible.
I might’ve lived with that had the shenanigans not gone in in wriggling out of that vote. Ever closer union was always going to trump democracy and that’s not healthy at all, and just stores up worse trouble.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/macron-puts-the-boot-in-after-mays-brexit-breakfast-blunder?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
They are running much larger risks than any sensible organisation should.
WIth Chequers ruled out, reasonably or not, it's time to try something else. If not no deal then Canada+ or whatever. All have problems, but either we seek something a potentially unreasonable EU will accept and see if we can accept that, or we call it quits.
May is not in a position to do either, ergo it is time for her to go unfortunately, even with the potential horror show replacements. She cannot do any good in working more for a deal no one wants.
The sooner we realise that half the world is no longer pink the better off we will be.
https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1042828720673841154
But if that’s the case - err - why not adapt so les autres don’t get tempted?
Ultimately they are doing passive aggressive and wielding the stick because they are not very sure if love and hugs can keep it all together. At present they have an external focus to bind them, but then what?
Taking your logic that something we would be happy with would be 'helping' us, they should never have entered into negotiations in the first place. It's also another of the unfortunate number of examples where defenders of the EU make it seem more childish and vindictive then even some leavers think it is.
If EU leaders now think, with Keynes type foresight, where THEY might want the EU- UK relationship to be in a decade or two, then they need to think hard this autumn about where we are heading. Chequers, whatever else, represents a Prime Minister who now recognises that across many key goods sectors, divergence on standards is a chimera which only sounds good to those who have not bothered to understand what friction free trade entails in the 21st century, have never read an FTA, and who privilege theoretical autonomy over real free trade, and who, as I say, have little or no understanding of trade in services.
The 27 ought, in my view, to have the sense to build on that, and build on the good elements of Chequers on future governance arrangements, and reflect profoundly on the depth and amity of the economic relationship they want.. If they do not, I think we shall be looking back from 2038 wondering why the rupture became so much deeper than was desired by any of the main players
http://www.britishirishchamber.com/2018/09/07/sir-mark-ivan-rogers-kcmg-speech-at-british-irish-chamber-of-commerce-annual-gala-dinner/
Lisbon is crap all round on this and I’d be astonished if the 27 didn’t revise it at the next round of treaties, given what all have learned.
Of course nobody actually thought it would be used........
(Well, in fairness I think the main author, Lord whoever,thought it might be some kind of Belarus style state in a far distant future leaving as the example. Not a big well established W European democracy).
The C4 News section on it was very good indeed.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1042744018826747904?s=19
Now I think you can mitigate a lot of the damage of Brexit , and be clear there are no practical upsides, it's all downside, but in doing so you lose the entire point of Brexit, which is control. Actually you end up with less say.
Which makes Brexit an interesting conundrum, if a relentlessly dreary outcome.
The current discussions are quite important. This government is light enough on talent without sending some of it to the far ends of the earth.
This was only funny because there was some truth in it. The pound is stable because its the pound. I don't believe you've ever met a currency trader if you think they have calmer heads than anyone really. The prevailing level of the pound has little to do with currency traders.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the hard-Brexit European Research Group of Tory MPs, said: “Is it an attempt to distract attention from the French senate interviewing his former bodyguard yesterday? It is not unknown for politicians to make outlandish claims to cover up a more interesting story.”
The Tory Brexiter Andrew Bridgen added: “It is a well-known British political truism that when you start insulting your opponents you have already lost the argument; perhaps we need to translate it into French?”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/brexiters-hit-back-at-emmanuel-macron-for-calling-them-liars
That was clear in Cameron's "renegotiation" and remains true. We have to choose between Hard Brexit and No Brexit.
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1042712447541501952
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1042805432186748928
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/datasets/retailsalesindexreferencetables
Retail sales as a whole have increased by 19% but splitting that between the different types of retailer gives:
Food stores +8%
Non-food stores +21%
Internet +82%
Petrol station +16%
Given that there have been numerous high profile retail chains stop trading I'm surprised that non-food stores have done so well - there must be some businesses which have done very well during the last five years.
I'm also surprised to see the amount of automotive fuel increase so much with cars becoming more fuel efficient, hybrids etc.
All I’m hearing is that the stupid deplorables made the wrong choice last time, or that the EU is a prison, or Hotel California...
If there’s a second referendum, the Remain side will need to persuade people who voted Leave last time to change their minds - or are they hoping that demographic change and differential turnout will see them over the line 51-49 which will somehow settle the issue forever?
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9102924/4-05092018-AP-EN/7786de60-5253-4995-b70e-91aa9604fcd9
For that matter the construction industry is also showing far stronger growth in the UK than in the other main European countries:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9246063/4-19092018-AP-EN.pdf/731ab33b-dfac-4820-a9fc-67a5613bd26d
With government finances improving, unemployment at a 40+ year low and both pay rises and inflation perhaps showing tendencies to increase the media would usually be proclaiming that the UK was enjoying a 'boom'.
That photos not good for the Europeans
(Do you understand FX markets? It might be arguable that the pound hasn't moved at all. The pound has had a great deal of volatility, but it's not changed so much against many currencies for a long time)
I will contradict you directly. The pound has in fact been a stable currency for many, many years.
Gentlemen, form an orderly queue for the UK's thirty-nine billion....
There were a few seconds of silence as everyone took this in. It almost felt intrusive to observe the prime minister visibly falling apart. A public humiliation on the epic scale of both her refusal to accept the reversal of the dementia tax during the general election campaign and her car-crash leader’s speech at last year’s Tory party conference. Then May composed herself as best she could and invited the kicking she knew was coming her way. Bring it on. Everyone else had had a go so she might as well let the media have theirs. The martyrdom of St Theresa.
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