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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,272
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario

    We'll have to have a Norway debate first.

    (Oh, and somebody needs to tell Boris he is no Churchill.)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
  • viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    Beyond the 320?

    Aren’t the 330, 350 and 380 allmade in the U.K.?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    How? Nationalisation? Didn’t have you down as a Corbynite.
    Reduced taxation and investment - nationalisation never
    Paid for by?
    I thought you were Labour?

    Since when were they interested in how to pay for things?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario

    We'll have to have a Norway debate first.

    (Oh, and somebody needs to tell Boris he is no Churchill.)
    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1019584716142342145
  • Enough about this Europe stuff..... Late night iht....

    Are labour down to abolish the additional residence nil rate band do we know?

    And did you see the lib dems have voted to set a maximum pension tax free cash ceiling of just 40k?

    Compared to 25pct of £1.03m.

    That presumably wouldn't apply to existing pension pots. .. But going forward on new monies... Retrospective tax otherwise and those using tfc as mortgage repayment vehicle will be stuffed..

    Considering how dependent the LibDems have become on upper-middle class votes that sounds like a 'brave' idea.

    Do they want any changes to public sector pensions as well as to private pensions ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,272

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario

    We'll have to have a Norway debate first.

    (Oh, and somebody needs to tell Boris he is no Churchill.)
    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1019584716142342145
    Oh yes!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    Beyond the 320?

    Aren’t the 330, 350 and 380 allmade in the U.K.?
    At present, but how long do you expect that to go on in a hostile Brexit scenario?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,272

    Enough about this Europe stuff..... Late night iht....

    Are labour down to abolish the additional residence nil rate band do we know?

    And did you see the lib dems have voted to set a maximum pension tax free cash ceiling of just 40k?

    Compared to 25pct of £1.03m.

    That presumably wouldn't apply to existing pension pots. .. But going forward on new monies... Retrospective tax otherwise and those using tfc as mortgage repayment vehicle will be stuffed..

    Considering how dependent the LibDems have become on upper-middle class votes that sounds like a 'brave' idea.

    Do they want any changes to public sector pensions as well as to private pensions ?
    The tax free cash limits apply to both private and public sector pensions.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Enough about this Europe stuff..... Late night iht....

    Are labour down to abolish the additional residence nil rate band do we know?

    And did you see the lib dems have voted to set a maximum pension tax free cash ceiling of just 40k?

    Compared to 25pct of £1.03m.

    That presumably wouldn't apply to existing pension pots. .. But going forward on new monies... Retrospective tax otherwise and those using tfc as mortgage repayment vehicle will be stuffed..

    Considering how dependent the LibDems have become on upper-middle class votes that sounds like a 'brave' idea.

    Do they want any changes to public sector pensions as well as to private pensions ?
    It is why I am taking mine next year. I don't trust the politicians with it.

  • Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    Beyond the 320?

    Aren’t the 330, 350 and 380 allmade in the U.K.?
    At present, but how long do you expect that to go on in a hostile Brexit scenario?
    You think a 'hostile Brexit scenario' will last decades?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    What about the left wing leaver trash?

    You do wear your politics on your sleeve

    Try to hate a little less eh
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    Big swing to the Lib Dems in Luton - but no cigar.


  • But where do you stop? Why not have an independent London?

    Or at least seriously, substantially devolved. It's been hypothesised the USA did so well by having having lots of largely independent states (less so these days) of smaller size, rather than trying to manage one vast expanse of country from the centre. I don't know how strong the evidence is for it though. The flip-side is how groups of people with closely correlated interests can do better by banding together. That might be in response to a temporary perceived threat or crisis that turns out to bind for much longer.

    If you read or listen to the eurofederalists, the European Coal and Steel Pact / European Communities / EU definitely echo the evolution of the Deutscher Bund, Zollverein treaties, and the Norddeutscher Bund. A messy process in which states drifted in and out of various circles of integration, until they found where they fitted as their "natural place". Some of those polities exist today, some have been subsumed tracelessly even as administrative sub-units. My own Brexiteerism derives from my belief that, while Britain needs to lie within some circle of relations to the western end* of the Continent, I'm sceptical its natural home is within The-Thing-The-EU-Is-Evolving-Into - that getting out later may be an even bigger hassle, and had Britain voted for Remain we may not have had another vote for a long time to come.

    I could have been persuaded to vote Remain myself, though. Had there been strong guarantees protecting the interests of opt-out states in the event of further integration, essentially akin to a protected associate membership of The Project. Or perhaps if some separate vehicle had been launched for deeper integration with the EU retained as a wider, looser trading arrangement - though I'd have fears about how The Vehicle - the Federation or Core Group or whatever it ended up called - might come to dominate the workings and decision-making of the EU institutions. Maybe even if the Referendum had released such a wave of popular europhilia that I saw Britain's place lay firmly and comfortably at the heart of Europe after all. But Cameron brought home the dampest of squibs and even most remainers just seem to want to trade, not the deeper economic and political union that the EU is tending towards. Could "Europe" function well as a single "country"? It could be a glorious thing - even SeanT has waxed lyrical on its possibilities, yet the Brits in particular don't seem to buy it. I'm not sure its correlation of interests is close enough.

    *People forget how vast Russia is - "Europe" is a big place, and with the Urals being such an arbitrary boundary, "Eurasia" is far wider. The notion of "European" Union is a surprisingly grandiose aim.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    Beyond the 320?

    Aren’t the 330, 350 and 380 allmade in the U.K.?
    At present, but how long do you expect that to go on in a hostile Brexit scenario?
    You think a 'hostile Brexit scenario' will last decades?
    If we refuse to pay our bills, yes, quite possibly so.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,720
    Floater said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    What about the left wing leaver trash?

    You do wear your politics on your sleeve

    Try to hate a little less eh
    I am left wing leavers trash and still would be if there were a 2nd Referendum (probably)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Floater said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    What about the left wing leaver trash?

    You do wear your politics on your sleeve

    Try to hate a little less eh
    Murali is PB's resident racist. They've never posted anything worthwhile; a bit like tyson but without the charm.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    edited September 2018
    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months

    My contribution to this is pointing out that although Airbus wings are made in Britain, Airbus tailplanes are made in Spain, and the principle's the same.

    European coproduction of aircraft such as the MRCA (later Tornado), EFA (later Eurofighter, then the Typhoon) and the A400M (later Grizzly, later Atlas) have gotten this down to a fine art, with port wings being made in one country, starboard in another, then assembled in a third. So it's a bit like the internet: destruction of one node is simply worked around.

    So @CarlottaVance 's contention that we hold a trump card regarding Airbus is sadly fictional (sorry, Carlotta!)

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Very interesting development: Ann Black (who has sadly been voted off the NEC) reports from her last meeting that they discussed putting up candidates in Northern Ireland but postponed a decision because of reported discussions between SDLP, who are our traditional allies, and Sinn Fein.

    I don't think Labour would win many seats by standing. But if the SDLP and Sinn Fein were to agree to split the nationalist seats, that would produce several pro-Labour MPs who actually attended Westminster.

    It's just rumours at present, but in another tight election it might be important.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    The pollster which admittedly usually gives the AfD their best scores gives the party its highest ever rating.

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    28m28 minutes ago

    Germany, Infratest dimap poll:
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 18% (+2)
    SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15% (+1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 9% (+1)
    Field work: 17/09/18 – 19/09/18
    Sample size: 1,035"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    Beyond the 320?

    Aren’t the 330, 350 and 380 allmade in the U.K.?
    Don't know. Shall I google it?

    While I do that, would you like a list of all the countries in the world that make wings? From memory, that's Canada, US, Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, Israel, Germany, France, India, Japan. And I haven't googled it yet.

    Saying we have a monopoly on making wings is like saying we have a monopoly in making bread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario

    We'll have to have a Norway debate first.

    (Oh, and somebody needs to tell Boris he is no Churchill.)
    Most people did not think Churchill was Churchill until 1940, before that he was considered an egotistical drunk tainted by the Gallipolli debacle
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
    Who owns Airbus, and how many of those shares are owned by governments wanting manufacturing jobs?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2018
    viewcode said:


    But consider the following: the washing machine, contraception, vaccination, medical statistics, capitalism, mass transportation and (my favorite) the refrigerated lorry and ship. These things are scientific/technological/economic in nature and have made a massive difference to people's lives.. I know they can't be separated from politics - no rule of law=no economy, for example - but economics (broadly defined) underpins freedom.

    Time studies have shown that total labour hours reduced substantially over the 20th century, and a lot of that was due to the reduction in non-traded hours expended on household production (cooking, cleaning etc). The benefits of personal freedom that derive from labour-saving machinery are very much real. But they are tradeable goods - even countries with no capacity for manufacturing them domestically can afford them provided they are able to export something else. Technology diffuses surprisingly quickly around the world these days.

    But I wonder if some items can have a double effect. Owning a computer, often in the guise of a "smartphone", clearly opens up a whole new (virtual) world of possibilities. But it also massively increases the power of the government to spy on you and ultimately control you. The Chinese example is instructive. I don't think I can be the only person with doubts over the news that 'one of the largest life insurance providers in North America will no longer offer policies that do not include digital fitness tracking' - or where this might go in future with car black boxes, or the fact that all automated vehicle journeys will almost certainly be logged.

    Overall my guess would be that certain freedoms are more tightly bound to economic progress than others. Freedom from hunger certainly; freedom of speech and thought, rather less.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230


    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?

    I don't know what the tariffs on aircraft production are, sorry. But I do think they can move production in 18-24 months, at least in the sense of building the factory and assembly line and starting production. Manufacturing can really do things quickly these days.

  • Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
    Who owns Airbus, and how many of those shares are owned by governments wanting manufacturing jobs?
    11% Germany & France each, 4% Spain and 74% others....
  • @JohnM
    Thought-provoking (IMO) post a few threads back. I left quite a late reply. In case you didn't see:

    John_M said:

    Hungarian voters get to choose their leaders. That this seems to be undesirable baffles me. While I appreciate that the A8 countries are, by and large, more racist, homophobic and transphobic than this sceptered isle, and that this is regrettable, I don't see it affects the ordinary crossdresser on the Clapham Omnibus. Hungary is a far off etc.

    An interesting comparison is "what year are they in?" in terms of the timeline of Britain's liberalisation of social attitudes. You won't quite get a like-for-like comparison because different countries have different issues - e.g. we have had Windrush and before that at least 100 years of substantial, albeit smaller-scale, migration from the Empire; they have historic tensions with ethnic minorities and particularly severe social attitudes towards the Roma. Moreover liberalisation is not inevitable and different countries take their own paths.

    But flip things around and say, 15 years ago, when Blair was PM. was he advocating for gay marriage? For changing the abortion law in NI? Self-identification for transgender people? Perhaps we shouldn't have been allowed to elect Blair, by some higher authority, on the grounds he was offensively socially conservative? Or maybe we should have been allowed, but only subject to the understanding we would be punished for our choice.

    To flip things round another way, if we do start thinking it's a good idea to have some overarching authority penalising naughty European countries who elect unacceptably uneuropean leaders... well presumably such grand authority will rest upon Europe as whole. Is that such a great idea when you look at who the continent is electing these days, or the kind of instability that Europe could be in a few decades down the line if tension continues e.g. between nationalist and federalist tendencies; or between the economic and political aspects of the Project? (An arguable precis: a currency union requires fiscal union to function well, particularly in the face of shocks. The political and economic tracks of the Project have run at different paces. Places like Greece are paying the price.)

    People who advocate the creation or expansion of a power tend to imagine that the people wielding it will be people like them. Good people. Cycles wax and wane, so at worst, one might imagine the kind of "acceptable" political opposition that one sees today taking control. Unpleasant, but there were checks and balances built into the system, right, and though you wouldn't vote for them, they're not evil. But even the variance of the cycle varies. Who is the most absolutely despicable foe you can imagine seizing the reins of that power, within the next 30 years say? Are you so confident in those checks and balances now?
  • viewcode said:


    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?

    I don't know what the tariffs on aircraft production are, sorry.
    Zero. Its a bit difficult to mistake a 'wing' for 2,000 cigarettes.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
    Who owns Airbus, and how many of those shares are owned by governments wanting manufacturing jobs?
    11% Germany & France each, 4% Spain and 74% others....
    The remainder in the private sector.

    Why will they continue to invest in North Wales rather than their continental plants?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this really weird Leaver shibboleth that only the UK can make wings for Airbus. Funnily enough, other countries can make wings. They've been doing it for years.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
    Who owns Airbus, and how many of those shares are owned by governments wanting manufacturing jobs?
    11% Germany & France each, 4% Spain and 74% others....
    The remainder in the private sector.

    Why will they continue to invest in North Wales rather than their continental plants?
    To maximise shareholder return?

    'We're moving wing production because Wales smells and we don't like the UK"

    The BAE stake was sold to EADS 12 years ago...and yet production in Wales continued.

    Of course, outside the EU we won't be subject to a ban on anti-competitive subsidies...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    viewcode said:


    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?

    I don't know what the tariffs on aircraft production are, sorry. But I do think they can move production in 18-24 months, at least in the sense of building the factory and assembly line and starting production. Manufacturing can really do things quickly these days.

    To wax further lyrically, it used to be that bits were assembled with the joins bashed into place with hammers, but when they started making airframes out of carbon fibre they had to stop doing that (carbon fibre isn't malleable, it shatters) so they had to work out ways to do things really exactly.

    But this is the point. These techniques aren't proprietary nor national: they are known and easily transferable. We dont have a hostage in wing manufacture.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:


    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?

    I don't know what the tariffs on aircraft production are, sorry.
    Zero. Its a bit difficult to mistake a 'wing' for 2,000 cigarettes.....
    Thank you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:


    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    There is this s.
    They can indeed - from next March -??? get real
    @rcs1000 went over this a few months ago, with some addendums from me. Unless you envision tanks shelling Airbus assembly plants post-Brexit, then manufacturing still takes place, albeit less profitably, until it can be transferred elsewhere in 18-24 months
    What are the tariffs on aircraft components?

    You think they can move production in 18-24 months?
    Who owns Airbus, and how many of those shares are owned by governments wanting manufacturing jobs?
    11% Germany & France each, 4% Spain and 74% others....
    The remainder in the private sector.

    Why will they continue to invest in North Wales rather than their continental plants?
    To maximise shareholder return?

    'We're moving wing production because Wales smells and we don't like the UK"

    Of course, outside the EU we won't be subject to a ban on anti-competitive subsidies...
    Though the WTO would take dim view of that!

    Brexit will reduce cross Channel and cross North Sea trade, break up of a single Market always does.

    I am not in a manufacturing business, so have no dog in the fight, but cannot see Airbus continuing to invest in North Wales, when they have better sites in the EU. It wont happen overnight, but it will go the way of the Australian Car Industry.
  • Very interesting development: Ann Black (who has sadly been voted off the NEC) reports from her last meeting that they discussed putting up candidates in Northern Ireland but postponed a decision because of reported discussions between SDLP, who are our traditional allies, and Sinn Fein.

    I don't think Labour would win many seats by standing. But if the SDLP and Sinn Fein were to agree to split the nationalist seats, that would produce several pro-Labour MPs who actually attended Westminster.

    It's just rumours at present, but in another tight election it might be important.

    I think you've misread that, Nick. The discussions (which have been going on a while) are between the SDLP and Fianna Fail, the party from the Republic. Lots of coverage in the Irish papers recently.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.
  • On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    Excellent point! I hadn't thought of that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario

    We'll have to have a Norway debate first.

    (Oh, and somebody needs to tell Boris he is no Churchill.)
    Most people did not think Churchill was Churchill until 1940, before that he was considered an egotistical drunk tainted by the Gallipolli debacle
    There's hope for Boris Johnson yet.........................
  • The danger for Europe’s leaders and those in London is that the break-up could become so much more severe than was desired by either the EU or the UK. Each must be careful not to misread the other’s intentions. Both sides must reflect on what sort of relationship they want and how they could achieve it. Let us hope that in the month ahead Downing Street and Brussels show the sort of wisdom required to ameliorate the error of Brexit without recourse to the bitter rancour that we had all thought the continent of Europe had left behind.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/20/the-guardian-view-on-mrs-mays-chequers-plan-dead-in-salzburg?__twitter_impression=true
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    The UK isn't an important market for Airbus Space and Defence. The only active procurement program we have directly with them is A400M and that is almost complete (20/22 delivered). Look at all of the MoD's major aircraft procurement programs: F-35 (Lockheed-Martin), P-8 (Boeing), AH-64E (Boeing) and now E-7 (Boeing/Northrop-Grumman). Airbus didn't get a sniff at any of them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    Saudi's been buying Eurostuff for years. IN A WAY THAT'S NOT CORRUPT, HONEST. ( :) ). US military wouldn't buy Euro if you put a gun to it's head (google VH1 Kestrel, although there was some Brit involvement). But you're overlooking an important market: the EU itself. I assume it's big enough to support its own industry, if you see what I mean
  • Dura_Ace said:

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    The UK isn't an important market for Airbus Space and Defence. The only active procurement program we have directly with them is A400M and that is almost complete (20/22 delivered). Look at all of the MoD's major aircraft procurement programs: F-35 (Lockheed-Martin), P-8 (Boeing), AH-64E (Boeing) and now E-7 (Boeing/Northrop-Grumman). Airbus didn't get a sniff at any of them.
    The US makes better kit, or institutional inertia?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    viewcode said:

    US military wouldn't buy Euro if you put a gun to it's head (google VH1 Kestrel, although there was some Brit involvement).

    The USCG has plenty of C-27Js (Leonardo), CN-235s (Airbus Military) and AS365s (Airbus Helicopter).
  • Dura_Ace said:

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    The UK isn't an important market for Airbus Space and Defence. The only active procurement program we have directly with them is A400M and that is almost complete (20/22 delivered). Look at all of the MoD's major aircraft procurement programs: F-35 (Lockheed-Martin), P-8 (Boeing), AH-64E (Boeing) and now E-7 (Boeing/Northrop-Grumman). Airbus didn't get a sniff at any of them.
    What about the airtanker/PM's jet (airbus aircraft), AH64 is more than 20 years old, Wildcat (Leonardo's) you are being a bit selective in your evidence
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:

    US military wouldn't buy Euro if you put a gun to it's head (google VH1 Kestrel, although there was some Brit involvement).

    The USCG has plenty of C-27Js (Leonardo), CN-235s (Airbus Military) and AS365s (Airbus Helicopter).
    Damn, I never thought to consider the Coast Guard.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dura_Ace said:

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    The UK isn't an important market for Airbus Space and Defence. The only active procurement program we have directly with them is A400M and that is almost complete (20/22 delivered). Look at all of the MoD's major aircraft procurement programs: F-35 (Lockheed-Martin), P-8 (Boeing), AH-64E (Boeing) and now E-7 (Boeing/Northrop-Grumman). Airbus didn't get a sniff at any of them.
    What about the airtanker/PM's jet (airbus aircraft), AH64 is more than 20 years old, Wildcat (Leonardo's) you are being a bit selective in your evidence
    The Voyager and Wildcat programs are complete. (Wildcat was never anything to do with Airbus anyway). I'm talking about current and future procurement. AH-64E is a new project to remanufacture WAH-64Ds into AH-64Es. ie the most expensive way possible to acquire helicopters.

    I forgot Crowsnest too. (Thales though the procurement is being run on behalf of the MoD by Lockheed-Martin for some reason).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    Dura_Ace said:

    On the Airbus argument. Airbus is a defence company as well.
    Top countries spending on defence.
    USA
    China
    Saudi
    Russia
    UK

    So what chance does Airbus have of cracking the USA, China and Russian defence market, Well zero or close to.
    They can get business from Saudi, but they are very tight with the USA.
    So that leaves the UK as the largest individual country market for them. They have the EU market sown up.
    Moving wings out of the UK is the Ratner strategy.

    The UK isn't an important market for Airbus Space and Defence. The only active procurement program we have directly with them is A400M and that is almost complete (20/22 delivered). Look at all of the MoD's major aircraft procurement programs: F-35 (Lockheed-Martin), P-8 (Boeing), AH-64E (Boeing) and now E-7 (Boeing/Northrop-Grumman). Airbus didn't get a sniff at any of them.
    The US makes better kit, or institutional inertia?
    US makes phenomenal kit, and as a rough rule of thumb it will be the best in the world for its particular example. But it will be expensive, complex and require a lot of maintenance.

    The European kit will be mediocre but adequate, and it will also be affordable. That and the distributed assembly lines (with added employment!) meant that a lot of the UK planes from the 70's thru to early 21st were European: the Tornado, Typhoon, etc.

    Now BAE refocussed on the US market some years ago, and in the 2010's the Conservatives got in. A lot of the ongoing developments were cancelled (eg Nimrod) and their replacements were off-the-shelf (eg Airseekerbecause that's all we can afford. US second-hand stuff is good quality, easily available so we bought some of that.

    Additionally the horrible compromises of the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers meant that there was effectively only one aircraft that can use it: the F35 which is American with some BAE involvement.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:
    Not a good poll for Merkel. 28%-18% is the closest it's been for a long time.
  • AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not a good poll for Merkel. 28%-18% is the closest it's been for a long time.
    I wonder how low the floor support is for the SPD. It could be very low, given the spectrum of alternative left-wing parties available, and that some working-class votes could head rightwards.

    It would not be altogether surprising to see a poll in which the SPD place fourth - they are only 2 percentage points away from it in this poll, and looking at recent results from several pollsters they have on several occasions been 1pp to 3pp away. It is not even beyond the bounds of possibility, if the FDP could pull themselves up to 13-14% or so (admittedly, this would need them to go back to highs last seen in 2009) and the SDP lost some votes to the Linke, that they could slip as far as sixth. I'm sure that it won't be that bad come the next election, but there is the potential for some seriously humiliating polling in between.


  • US makes phenomenal kit, and as a rough rule of thumb it will be the best in the world for its particular example. But it will be expensive, complex and require a lot of maintenance.

    The European kit will be mediocre but adequate, and it will also be affordable. That and the distributed assembly lines (with added employment!) meant that a lot of the UK planes from the 70's thru to early 21st were European: the Tornado, Typhoon, etc.

    Now BAE refocussed on the US market some years ago, and in the 2010's the Conservatives got in. A lot of the ongoing developments were cancelled (eg Nimrod) and their replacements were off-the-shelf (eg Airseekerbecause that's all we can afford. US second-hand stuff is good quality, easily available so we bought some of that.

    Additionally the horrible compromises of the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers meant that there was effectively only one aircraft that can use it: the F35 which is American with some BAE involvement.

    So in effect UK Defence is tied to (or depends on) BAE Systems a huge multinational with a long track record in bribery, corruption and deals with very unsavoury dictators - bet they have a very substantial presence at Tory Party conference next week (although somehow I don't think Arms Sales will be on T May's mind at the moment)

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited September 2018

    viewcode said:

    welshowl said:

    This about freedom, self determination, and democracy, not economics. Remain still have not twigged that.

    Economics is freedom, self determination, and democracy. Poverty is powerlessness.
    Bold but interesting claim. You're interested, iirc, in tech and Big Data. The government of China is combining some of the cutting edge in technological totalitarianism (moving on from the Great Firewall to facial recognition and loyalty-tracking) with increased incomes that substantially widen its inhabitants' consumption-possibility frontiers. There are some great articles about that, well worth reading.

    From a different angle, Savoy was for centuries a notable European power - in fact it was only annexed to France as late as 1860. To what extent is Savoy "free" or "self-determined" today, when it no longer even exists as a polity? Do we get a different answer if I replace "Savoy" with "the Savoyards"? In terms of "democratic", I think it's arguable that had Savoy retained its independence, then Savoyards would have more individual voting power. More importantly, they would live in a country whose governance more closely matched their preferences (since the preferences of Savoyards will tend to be correlated, and not always in lockstep with other regions of what is now France). There's a similar argument to be made re Bavaria in 1870 - it's not even obvious that Bavarians themselves would be poorer today if their state had remained independent or, as some had suggested, joined with Switzerland, within which Bavarians would have had more power and also in several respects had greater affinity than Germany.
    But where do you stop? Why not have an independent London?
    It is now clear that no deal between the UK and the EU now seems likely because of the TM's intransigence and incompetence. The 2 constituent parts of the UK (Scotland and the 6 counties) that indicated on 23/6/16 that they wished to remain in the EU should now be permitted to have a 2nd referendum on remaining in the EU and seceding from the UK. If there is going to be a hard border between England and the EU, the best place for it would be along the Cheviots.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.
  • Yesterday killed the chequers deal it seems. The only exit now is a hard Brexit. There is no Canada deal on the table and won’t be by March. I would suggest that the chance there is a delay on exit is now much higher.
  • As a passionate unionist Scot my vote in a referendum is now no longer clear. I would say we need to think about a Eexit and not Brexit
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    As a passionate unionist Scot my vote in a referendum is now no longer clear. I would say we need to think about a Eexit and not Brexit

    +1. Or rather EWEXIT.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
  • As a passionate unionist Scot my vote in a referendum is now no longer clear. I would say we need to think about a Eexit and not Brexit

    An unelectable Labour party + a Conservative party captured by the English nationalist hard right + Brexit = the end of the UK. That is the end game.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited September 2018
    63% chance of leaving in March 2019. There will be a deal with the EU on its terms because we can't do without it. That was always going to be the case. This is just the dreary reality of Brexit finally hitting. Main takeaway from yesterday was the abject failure of the UK's gambit of appealing to member governments over the heads of the Eurocrats. Barnier et al are much nicer. Britain will have to take the EU stakeholders a lot more seriously than it has done so far if it's going to get anywhere. Welcome to the Vassal State.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Yesterday killed the chequers deal it seems. The only exit now is a hard Brexit. There is no Canada deal on the table and won’t be by March. I would suggest that the chance there is a delay on exit is now much higher.

    Withdrawing our Article 50 notice for the time being makes a lot more sense. It’s clear that we’ve got too involved to leave.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.

    Yep, as has been the case from the start, May’s entire Brexit strategy has been about keeping the Tories together and her in Number 10.

  • FF43 said:

    63% chance of leaving in March 2019. There will be a deal with the EU on its terms because we can't do without it. That was always going to be the case. This is just the dreary reality of Brexit finally hitting. Main takeaway from yesterday was the abject failure of the UK's gambit of appealing to member governments over the heads of the Eurocrats. Barnier et al are much nicer. Britain will have to take the EU stakeholders a lot more seriously than it has done so far if it's going to get anywhere. Welcome to the Vassal State.

    .... and a majority of people voted for this!
    John Major was right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    Yesterday killed the chequers deal it seems. The only exit now is a hard Brexit. There is no Canada deal on the table and won’t be by March. I would suggest that the chance there is a delay on exit is now much higher.

    Withdrawing our Article 50 notice for the time being makes a lot more sense. It’s clear that we’ve got too involved to leave.
    I think that the percentage of people who would walk across broken glass in their bare feet to get out increased yesterday. This is not a good thing. Calm, rational, self interested behavior was the way forward. But we've tried that.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    Anger is a poor way to negotiate, particularly combined with rigidity.

    There will be twists and turns yet, but it is easy to get overexcited by yesterday. We have known for months that the EU27 would reject an unaltered Chequers, and Tusk was quite positive about it in parts. The Customs plan wouldn't work for them.

    I think a Blind Brexit in March is still looking most likely, with a temporary Customs Union while negotiations continue, probably under a different Tory leadership.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    She’s just been publicly humiliated and insulted. She has no choice.

    You just don’t get the politics of this. No British Prime Minister can tolerate treatment like that and it’s astonishing so many Remainers on here (and elsewhere) are cheering them on, though not all I hasten to add, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see it either although I am disappointed.

    I would tolerate all the risks of no deal, including economic disruption, Corbyn and even eventual rejoining, over abject national humiliation just so they can make an example of the UK. Because all of that would be our choice, not theirs.

    A lot of others will feel likewise.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    The lack of movement is interesting. I wonder what the prime cause is. Suspicion the headlines are orchestrated? Assumption beforehand this would happen and a deal will end up done anyway? Belief the EU stance is a negotiation tactic meant to turn the screw?

    Be quite nice if it stopped being so windy and rainy, on an unrelated note.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.

    Yep, as has been the case from the start, May’s entire Brexit strategy has been about keeping the Tories together and her in Number 10.

    You wot?
  • Yesterday killed the chequers deal it seems. The only exit now is a hard Brexit. There is no Canada deal on the table and won’t be by March. I would suggest that the chance there is a delay on exit is now much higher.

    Chequers was already dead - rejected in principle by the EU before it was even drafted. Their negotiating poaition has been clear and consistent, it's only arrogance and stupidity on the UK side that means "they rejected it" was such a surprise to May yesterday.

    Our options remain as they were before yesterday:
    Extend A50 (would require a change of government)
    Put the option to the people in a referendum (would require a change of government)
    Exit to EEA (Which to date we still haven't given 12 months notice to leave)
    Crash no deal Brexit

    Parliament seems unlikely to vote for any of the remaining options but I expect will also vote to compel HMG to do whatever it takes to avoid no deal crash Brexit. I cannot see how the May government survives the autumn.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    As a passionate unionist Scot my vote in a referendum is now no longer clear. I would say we need to think about a Eexit and not Brexit

    I agree. The pathway to another independence referendum in the near future is difficult but if there ha one, I think independence will win, simply because no-one much will defend the Union. The DavidLs of Scotland make up at most 25%, far below a majority. The union alliance won't be there next time.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    The illusions of Brexit are hitting the buffers. Taking a very adversarial stance now would achieve two things : to accelerate the financial damage that is being optimistically deferred to next spring by the financial markets, and to split the tory party definitively once and for all, even before March.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Grayling still giving CPR to Chequers I see:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45596470
  • May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    Another Remainer Tory MP, Stephen Crab, on R4 saying yesterday’s EU behaviour pushing him to “the quicker we’re out the better”
  • May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    She’s just been publicly humiliated and insulted. She has no choice.

    You just don’t get the politics of this. No British Prime Minister can tolerate treatment like that and it’s astonishing so many Remainers on here (and elsewhere) are cheering them on, though not all I hasten to add, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see it either although I am disappointed.

    I would tolerate all the risks of no deal, including economic disruption, Corbyn and even eventual rejoining, over abject national humiliation just so they can make an example of the UK. Because all of that would be our choice, not theirs.

    A lot of others will feel likewise.

    I see little cheering. National humiliation was always going to be one consequence of Brexit. We voted to make ourselves more irrelevant, less influential and worse off.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    She’s just been publicly humiliated and insulted. She has no choice.

    You just don’t get the politics of this. No British Prime Minister can tolerate treatment like that and it’s astonishing so many Remainers on here (and elsewhere) are cheering them on, though not all I hasten to add, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see it either although I am disappointed.

    I would tolerate all the risks of no deal, including economic disruption, Corbyn and even eventual rejoining, over abject national humiliation just so they can make an example of the UK. Because all of that would be our choice, not theirs.

    A lot of others will feel likewise.
    May has a tin ear. Chequers was already only a starting point as far as the EU27 was concerned.

    Yesterday was not a humiliation or insult, it was merely reality of having trashed our friendships with the 27 countries.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    Ah, the Tantrum approach to Brexit.
  • May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    This will simply result in the vastly increased spectre of no-deal, and an even faster collapse of the Brexit position, and the government. A referendum would follow.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    You seem very upset, why?

    The government got it’s diplomacy wrong. It sent the PM on to confirm and present an agreement that wasn’t there. It’s a mistake, but hardly the end of the world. Something has to change to avoid no deal. What, how and who is unclear
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    Anger is a poor way to negotiate, particularly combined with rigidity.

    There will be twists and turns yet, but it is easy to get overexcited by yesterday. We have known for months that the EU27 would reject an unaltered Chequers, and Tusk was quite positive about it in parts. The Customs plan wouldn't work for them.

    I think a Blind Brexit in March is still looking most likely, with a temporary Customs Union while negotiations continue, probably under a different Tory leadership.
    Oh I agree that anger is not particularly productive but the politics of this are being handled very ineptly. I think, depending on how she plays this, May's position might well become more secure, not less. There will be an instinctive urge to get behind her.

    Contrary to the views of the markets I think that the risk of a no deal or minimal deal to keep the planes flying and the traffic moving increased yesterday, not because of the negotiating positions but because of the politics. I do not favour this. I want a sensible deal. I just think this will affect the atmosphere and attitudes going forward and not in a good way.
  • Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    She’s just been publicly humiliated and insulted. She has no choice.

    You just don’t get the politics of this. No British Prime Minister can tolerate treatment like that and it’s astonishing so many Remainers on here (and elsewhere) are cheering them on, though not all I hasten to add, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see it either although I am disappointed.

    I would tolerate all the risks of no deal, including economic disruption, Corbyn and even eventual rejoining, over abject national humiliation just so they can make an example of the UK. Because all of that would be our choice, not theirs.

    A lot of others will feel likewise.
    May has a tin ear. Chequers was already only a starting point as far as the EU27 was concerned.

    Yesterday was not a humiliation or insult, it was merely reality of having trashed our friendships with the 27 countries.
    And where’s your criticism of the EU27 and their “tin ear”?

    Oh, that’s right. You haven’t got any. Because you’re so myopically opposed to Brexit you can’t or won’t see any.

    All the reports recently were of how the EU27 recognised the need to ‘help’ and ‘save’ May to make those last concessions by adopting a change of tone and language. And this is how they think you do that?

    It’s an absolute insult and will harden opinion on both sides to both of their detriment.

    I find it simply astonishing that there’s no level of behaviour that the EU would descend to that you wouldn’t refuse to criticise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Foxy said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    Ah, the Tantrum approach to Brexit.
    And the EU haven't had a tantrum about our leaving? Punishment beatings, "darkst hour"? We really should play dirty. Because it's that, or no deal Brexit anyway. Anyone who wants something other than diamond-hard Brexit should put their shoulder to the wheel of getting some EU movement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    FF43 said:

    As a passionate unionist Scot my vote in a referendum is now no longer clear. I would say we need to think about a Eexit and not Brexit

    I agree. The pathway to another independence referendum in the near future is difficult but if there ha one, I think independence will win, simply because no-one much will defend the Union. The DavidLs of Scotland make up at most 25%, far below a majority. The union alliance won't be there next time.
    Funnily enough I respectfully disagree. I see no evidence of a move to independence and quite a lot of evidence that the burdens of office are finally weighing heavy on the SNP.
  • DavidL said:

    I see we have got diverted into boys toys again. Mike’s piece is important. It suggests that for all the hysteria of yesterday the market doesn’t think that the probabilities have changed at all. This strongly supports @Nick’s analysis that this is a part of the way that the EU does business.

    What I think is different is the genuine anger on the part of May yesterday. She may well make a Brexiteer yet.

    May has no choice politically now but to make a very hard, defiant and combative anti-EU speech. In public.

    Time to fight back.
    Yes, why not take self-harm to the logical extreme?
    She’s just been publicly humiliated and insulted. She has no choice.

    You just don’t get the politics of this. No British Prime Minister can tolerate treatment like that and it’s astonishing so many Remainers on here (and elsewhere) are cheering them on, though not all I hasten to add, and I can’t say I’m surprised to see it either although I am disappointed.

    I would tolerate all the risks of no deal, including economic disruption, Corbyn and even eventual rejoining, over abject national humiliation just so they can make an example of the UK. Because all of that would be our choice, not theirs.

    A lot of others will feel likewise.

    I see little cheering. National humiliation was always going to be one consequence of Brexit. We voted to make ourselves more irrelevant, less influential and worse off.

    Nah, National humiliation by foreign powers (in this case, the EU) is a choice they’ve decided to make because they want to make an example of the UK and publicly bring it to heel.

    We don’t have to (and shouldn’t) choose that. We should choose self-respect and walk away.

    Yes, it will be hard. The alternatives are worse.
  • Another Remainer Tory MP, Stephen Crab, on R4 saying yesterday’s EU behaviour pushing him to “the quicker we’re out the better”

    Tory remainers are very distinct from Labour, Liberal Democrat and other Remainers, in this respect. They share an adversarial assumption against Europe, but just moderated by economic pragmatism most of the time.
  • Jonathan said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    You seem very upset, why?

    The government got it’s diplomacy wrong. It sent the PM on to confirm and present an agreement that wasn’t there. It’s a mistake, but hardly the end of the world. Something has to change to avoid no deal. What, how and who is unclear
    I’m f*cking furious.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    You seem very upset, why?

    The government got it’s diplomacy wrong. It sent the PM on to confirm and present an agreement that wasn’t there. It’s a mistake, but hardly the end of the world. Something has to change to avoid no deal. What, how and who is unclear
    Its not a mistake if the EU are being unreasonable, which of course they are.
  • Jonathan said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    You seem very upset, why?

    The government got it’s diplomacy wrong. It sent the PM on to confirm and present an agreement that wasn’t there. It’s a mistake, but hardly the end of the world. Something has to change to avoid no deal. What, how and who is unclear

    Yep, not for the first time May messed up. But do not underestimate the anger there will be over what happened yesterday or what the consequences of that may be. The whole Brexit process has always been about politics. The national interest takes a very distant second place.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    You seem very upset, why?

    The government got it’s diplomacy wrong. It sent the PM on to confirm and present an agreement that wasn’t there. It’s a mistake, but hardly the end of the world. Something has to change to avoid no deal. What, how and who is unclear
    I’m f*cking furious.
    Divorce is hard. People get hurt. Remember it was us that asked for it. We must take responsibility.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    The only benefit of this approach I can see would be to make Brexiteers feel better. That is a substantial benefit for TM personally, and perhaps she will do something like a tough-sounding speech.

    As far as I can see - the way out of this situation for May is to abandon her red line on the customs union. I guess also that's made slightly easier if she gets a few headlines first about how tough she is, standing up to Brussels etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    Another Remainer Tory MP, Stephen Crab, on R4 saying yesterday’s EU behaviour pushing him to “the quicker we’re out the better”

    Tory remainers are very distinct from Labour, Liberal Democrat and other Remainers, in this respect. They share an adversarial assumption against Europe, but just moderated by economic pragmatism most of the time.
    I think that is spot on and important. The vast majority of Tory remainers will be wanting a response to this. The remainers of other parties continue to see an EU that can do no wrong and will content themselves in blaming the government in ever more convoluted ways.
  • All politics is local. May fell victim to a French President with very poor ratings seeking a European stage yesterday to grandstand and distract attention from a Senate Enquiry into his “body guard”. She shouldn’t take it personally. But she should get her ducks in a row and progress a Canada plus deal that “respects the Union” - both the European and the United Kingdom ones.

    Gina Miller on R4 has been as far north as Manchester! Wants a 3 option referendum - deal/no deal/remain.

  • Nah, National humiliation by foreign powers (in this case, the EU) is a choice they’ve decided to make because they want to make an example of the UK and publicly bring it to heel.

    We don’t have to (and shouldn’t) choose that. We should choose self-respect and walk away.

    Yes, it will be hard. The alternatives are worse.

    How have the EU humiliated us? Specifically?

    The EU have a clear and unambiguous stance on the integrity of the EEA. They have not wavered on that stance, offering even a hint that they would break this red line at any point. Despite this the cretins in the Conservative Party insisted they would. Because we are BRITAIN and they NEED us more than we need them. We WILL have our RED WHITE AND BLUE cake and they will be grateful to give it to us. GREAT Britain Uber bloody Alles.

    And what happens? We have made repeated attempts to push the EU way beyond their red line to breech the integrity of the EEA. And been repeatedly politely denied. We are only "humiliated" having wasted months arguing over which colour icing we would apply to the cake first and have finally woken up to the fact that there will be no cake.

    The Conservative Party negotiation of Brexit is the national humilation. The worst planned, managed and executed negotiation imaginable, so that we now find ourselves with months to go SHOCKED and APPALLED that the EU position hasn't changed and that we're actually less important than we thought we were.
  • Foxy said:

    May should fight very dirty. That’s how international negotiations go when it’s high stakes.

    Threaten to put EU defence needs at the bottom of the list for the UK’s overstretched armed forces, hint that GCHQ have more pressing intelligences priorities, that all funding and support for the EU’s missions in the Mediterranean Sea will be withdrawn, that the City of London will force EU companies and businesses to register and regulate them accordingly, explain that the UK will have more pressing global priorities and EU workers will be the bottom of the list for visas and have no benefits.

    Fight dirty. Very dirty. And mean it. That’s how you get a deal. Make them feel just how hard and nasty a geostrategic mistake no-deal would be for them for years and years.

    Ah, the Tantrum approach to Brexit.
    What do you think the EU have done with Galileo, European City of Culture, exchange programmes, and collaboration in a whole host of other areas?

    Even Alastair Meeks can recognise such dickishness when it occurs on the EU side. You can’t because you’re so far up Barnier’s backside you can’t see anything except the yellow stars on the blue flag. It’s only a “tantrum” when we do it, not them, because.. Brexit.

    Nonsense. Fight fire with fire. They are threatening us with exclusion from all sorts of programmes and cooperation as a consequence of Brexit. We should make them feel the same. The UK contributes a lot to Europe (between 20-25% of its economic and geopolitical weight, and more militarily) and we should make them feel it.

    Brexit means Brexit.
This discussion has been closed.