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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit La

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit Labour gathers in Liverpool to talk about itself

Meanwhile Phil Collins is dead right – while the Tories go through their Brexit travails all Corbyn's LAB wants to talk about is itself https://t.co/NYSLTbXBkN

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sigh.
  • Why interrupt your opponents tearing themselves to pieces over an essentially second order matter when you can find third order topics of your own to tear yourself to pieces over?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,074
    Considering how Brexit bores the public and sends normal politics into delusional rants, then avoiding the subject is very wise for Labour. It was a key element in last Junes Election to talk about other issues, such as Student debt, railway nationalisation and austerity. Brexit is an Absorboloth that destroys everything it touches.

    I think that they will have a decision in favour of a #peoplesvote then move onto other issues.
  • The far-left’s priority has always been control of the Labour party, not defeating the Tories. In Liverpool it will be discussing what matters most to it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Foxy said:

    Considering how Brexit bores the public and sends normal politics into delusional rants, then avoiding the subject is very wise for Labour. It was a key element in last Junes Election to talk about other issues, such as Student debt, railway nationalisation and austerity. Brexit is an Absorboloth that destroys everything it touches.

    I think that they will have a decision in favour of a #peoplesvote then move onto other issues.

    Foxy

    That diagnosis seems a bit strange. It's like saying, 'we can't do anything about this cancer so let's try a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the foot.'

    If they were remorselessly banging on about housing, the NHS and education (albeit their answers veer from the laughable to the silly) you would be right, but talking about the right of a leader to be hated by the PLP and for antisemites to say nasty things about Jews probably isn't going to stem the flow.
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Brexiteers are the ones who have put part of our country at risk of annexation. Remember how concerns over the Irish border were dismissed?
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Brexiteers are the ones who have put part of our country at risk of annexation. Remember how concerns over the Irish border were dismissed?
    As they should be. It's a load of nonsense being blown up to try and extort us. As would be shown if we leave without a backstop, the problem will sort itself out.
  • Every now and then one tries to satirise the views of Leavers, and regularly they go so far beyond what one would previously have thought of as plausible as to make the exercise redundant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Meantime, across the Atlantic, the Kavanaugh confirmation story gets more bizarre:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/09/the-kavanaugh-affair-careened-off-a-cliff-today/

    Whelan has been involved in helping to advise Kavanaugh’s confirmation effort and is close friends with both Kavanaugh and Leonard Leo, the head of the Federalist Society who has been helping to spearhead the nomination. Kavanaugh and Whelan also worked together in the Bush administration. Kavanaugh and his allies have been privately discussing a defense that would not question whether an incident involving Ford happened, but instead would raise doubts that the attacker was Kavanaugh, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

    If Kavanaugh himself is even remotely involved in this, he’s toast…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    And why is Warren still second favourite for the Democratic nomination when a large majority of her home state apparently doesn't want her to run ?
  • I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.
  • I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    She has two options: walk or capitulate.

    Knowing May I expect capitulation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    I expect if the prospect of No Deal Brexit looks likely by the end of October the current movement of Labour Remainers to the LDs to push for a second EU referendum and to oppose Brexit will only increase further
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    I think that she will stick to her guns whilst rolling back on the ambitions for the extent of the deal. I expect to see a series of unilateral decisions as I was urging some months ago combined with more action (which, lets face it, won't be hard) to mitigate the consequences of a no deal.
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    The PB leavers will be encouraging the plebs to attack from their safe (non-EU) homes abroad ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    Agree to the UK staying in the single market and customs union effectively for the transition period until December 2020 and keep NI linked to the customs union as the backstop.

    She can then save face and say Chequers will still be the basis for FTA negotiations in the transition period
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,750
    edited September 2018

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    A plucky rescue of ‘our people’ from a garlicky plage more aposite? Prepare the wee boats & Nimrod variations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    Nigelb said:

    And why is Warren still second favourite for the Democratic nomination when a large majority of her home state apparently doesn't want her to run ?

    She leads in New Hampshire



    https://www.suffolk.edu/news/76890.php#.WwVmrNxKjX5
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    Sandpit said:



    At a minimum they look like
    http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/cars-queue-at-the-border-crossing-between-france-and-switzerland-on-picture-id468328565

    Not something that I think anyone would enjoy building in Ireland.

    At a minimum it looks like the Hotel Arbez in La Cure where the Franco-Swiss border runs through the kitchen and two of the bedrooms.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    They'll be on a ferry as the tories have just sold HMS Ocean to the Brazilian Navy.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    Even if May has as next move, and lets assume it is a good idea, given her previous history (the bonkers General Election, and the obviously flawed Chequers deal) why would anyone want to risk her delivering it?

    I don't dislike May, I don't think she's stupid, I don't think she has ill intent, but I sure as hell do not trust her political instincts.

    I think May's time is up.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    It's pretty obvious when you realise that she is motivated by a) remaining as PM and b) keeping the government in power as long as possible. The welfare, stability and prosperity of the nation feature at x), y) and z).

    She will continue to tell the EGR it's Chequers or Remain and tell the EU it's Chequers or No Deal while running the clock out until the options are starkly reduced to No Deal or postpone A50.

    What she'll do then is the genuine bafflement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.

    At which point Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition and have the time of his life with the Tories and Leavers united behind him while Corbyn has to deal with Brexit and Labour divisions and the economy as PM without a plan beyond diluted Marxism and 'Brexit means Brexit' the Corbyn version
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    glw said:

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    Even if May has as next move, and lets assume it is a good idea, given her previous history (the bonkers General Election, and the obviously flawed Chequers deal) why would anyone want to risk her delivering it?

    I don't dislike May, I don't think she's stupid, I don't think she has ill intent, but I sure as hell do not trust her political instincts.

    I think May's time is up.
    glw said:

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    Even if May has as next move, and lets assume it is a good idea, given her previous history (the bonkers General Election, and the obviously flawed Chequers deal) why would anyone want to risk her delivering it?

    I don't dislike May, I don't think she's stupid, I don't think she has ill intent, but I sure as hell do not trust her political instincts.

    I think May's time is up.
    I know it's been discussed before but it was the bonkers manifesto rather than the bonkers General Election that ruined May's majority.

    If May hadn't called a GE, what would likely have happened with Sturgeon's call for a second Scots independence vote? From memory, wasn't that intended for around now?

    I remember Sturgeon's move towards a second vote being the catalyst for May's GE call.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    Wouldn't worry about it too much, she'll be going for a walk in the Welsh hills and will be back with an answer to save the Tory Party, again....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,264
    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    This is going to make me sound stupid but never mind. Despite the acres of internet space devoted to discussing Brexit and the NI issue I still don’t understand why it is that the Good Friday Agreement has effectively made it impossible for the UK, of which NI is a part, to leave the EU.

    Is this a peculiar example of the law of unintended consequences? Or simply a result of May’s particular red lines? Or EU red lines? Or what?

    In short, does the GFA legally require NI to stay within the SM and the CU? And, if not, what is the issue?

    And if NI did have to stay within the SM wouldn’t that mean that all our banks could operate from there using the “passport”, not to mention others?

    As I say I am probably missing something obvious - but marvellous as this forum is there is, dare I say it, often more heat than light shed on certain topics - so without tut tutting at my appalling stupidity and ignorance, if some kind soul could explain this to me or point me in the right direction, I’d be most grateful.

    And now having had my very Irish breakfast of porridge and strong tea, I’d best go and do some work.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Brexiteers are the ones who have put part of our country at risk of annexation. Remember how concerns over the Irish border were dismissed?
    As they should be. It's a load of nonsense being blown up to try and extort us. As would be shown if we leave without a backstop, the problem will sort itself out.
    Ireland will become one under Dublin. TMay or her successor will have to trot along to HMQ for the weekly meeting to explain how a part of the UK has been lost. Suspect it won't be a pleasant experience...
  • HYUFD said:

    I expect if the prospect of No Deal Brexit looks likely by the end of October the current movement of Labour Remainers to the LDs to push for a second EU referendum and to oppose Brexit will only increase further

    Isn’t Labour about to own EUref2, and surge ahead in the opinion polls? According to one people’s vote supporting newspaper today they are.

    On topic, no I totally disagree with you Mike. The complete opposite is the truth! Conference week is the only week of the year awash with talk of unique values and differential polices, it’s the rest of the year all the parties ignore this. This is one of the reasons you can’t trust polls in conference season.
    Don’t just disagree with me, let’s put it to the test. I think headlines out of this labour conference will be dominated too much about Europe, and not enough about nationalisation of railways for that extra control, cheaper land purchases, gig economy pay and conditions, limbo of migrant workers from EU, and other discussions that would draw a crowd around their soapbox.

    I know now no one on this site agrees with me about how Politics actually works. But I am right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TOPPING said:

    How have the EU humiliated us? Specifically?

    The EU have a clear and unambiguous stance on the integrity of the EEA. They have not wavered on that stance, offering even a hint that they would break this red line at any point. Despite this the cretins in the Conservative Party insisted they would. Because we are BRITAIN and they NEED us more than we need them. We WILL have our RED WHITE AND BLUE cake and they will be grateful to give it to us. GREAT Britain Uber bloody Alles.

    And what happens? We have made repeated attempts to push the EU way beyond their red line to breech the integrity of the EEA. And been repeatedly politely denied. We are only "humiliated" having wasted months arguing over which colour icing we would apply to the cake first and have finally woken up to the fact that there will be no cake.

    The Conservative Party negotiation of Brexit is the national humilation. The worst planned, managed and executed negotiation imaginable, so that we now find ourselves with months to go SHOCKED and APPALLED that the EU position hasn't changed and that we're actually less important than we thought we were.

    This seems a fair assessment of the current situation.
    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    It strikes me that while Tories naturally downplay the humiliation to them some opponents overplay it significantly so focused they on partisan approached. This does transcend that to an extent.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
  • HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.

    At which point Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition and have the time of his life with the Tories and Leavers united behind him while Corbyn has to deal with Brexit and Labour divisions and the economy as PM without a plan beyond diluted Marxism and 'Brexit means Brexit' the Corbyn version

    Corbyn would deal with Brexit by blaming the Tories for the mess and allowing Keir Starmer to do a deal with the EU27 that looks very like Norway. He’ld leave the economy to McDonnell, who would institute a series of measures that look less like Marxism than social democracy plus. Corbyn would focus on foreign and defence policy - and that’s where the immense damage would be done. As for Johnson, if Corbyn is PM it would probably mean he has lost his seat.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    She has two options: walk or capitulate.

    Knowing May I expect capitulation.
    I hope it's capitulation. I would say the odds are 60/40 in favour of capitulation at the moment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, across the Atlantic, the Kavanaugh confirmation story gets more bizarre:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/09/the-kavanaugh-affair-careened-off-a-cliff-today/

    Whelan has been involved in helping to advise Kavanaugh’s confirmation effort and is close friends with both Kavanaugh and Leonard Leo, the head of the Federalist Society who has been helping to spearhead the nomination. Kavanaugh and Whelan also worked together in the Bush administration. Kavanaugh and his allies have been privately discussing a defense that would not question whether an incident involving Ford happened, but instead would raise doubts that the attacker was Kavanaugh, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

    If Kavanaugh himself is even remotely involved in this, he’s toast…

    As we all spend time discussing the absurdities of UK and EU politics, it’s always worth the occasional look across the pond - where politics and media have both truly jumped the shark.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Corbyn opponents will be mad - no ramping up of any pressure on him in the run up to conference now. I doubt it would have been effective anyway.

    I await labour switching to a referendum of some kind though. If it is on a theoretical hard deal they gain remainers and soft leavers so their support would grow.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    HYUFD said:

    I expect if the prospect of No Deal Brexit looks likely by the end of October the current movement of Labour Remainers to the LDs to push for a second EU referendum and to oppose Brexit will only increase further

    Isn’t Labour about to own EUref2, and surge ahead in the opinion polls? According to one people’s vote supporting newspaper today they are.

    On topic, no I totally disagree with you Mike. The complete opposite is the truth! Conference week is the only week of the year awash with talk of unique values and differential polices, it’s the rest of the year all the parties ignore this. This is one of the reasons you can’t trust polls in conference season.
    Don’t just disagree with me, let’s put it to the test. I think headlines out of this labour conference will be dominated too much about Europe, and not enough about nationalisation of railways for that extra control, cheaper land purchases, gig economy pay and conditions, limbo of migrant workers from EU, and other discussions that would draw a crowd around their soapbox.

    I know now no one on this site agrees with me about how Politics actually works. But I am right.
    Im going to disagree. Most of the headlines out of this week will be about antisemitism.
  • HYUFD said:

    I expect if the prospect of No Deal Brexit looks likely by the end of October the current movement of Labour Remainers to the LDs to push for a second EU referendum and to oppose Brexit will only increase further

    Fortunately, the Lib Dems have a dynamic leader with great youth appeal who is perfectly placed to capitalise on this situation.

    Oh, wait.

    (For goodness' sake, guys, dump Cable, have an election between Swinson and Moran, and vote in Moran. It's. Not. That. Hard.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    fpt
    kle4 said:

    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    We're the ones that wanted to leave. They are going to continue as is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    fpt
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Number 10:

    ttps://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1043014560356032515?s=20

    Why is the NI border only a UK problem, not a joint one?

    It’s not really a UK problem at all, we would be quite content to pretend it’s there and work with technology to combat smuggling - much as we do now.

    It’s a massive problem for the EU though, because they want their external border to *look* like an international border, with fences and checkpoints.

    We really should call their bluff on it now, make it clear that it’s no deal and that they’d better start digging holes for the fenceposts.
    But don't they have an open border with Switzerland, for example, without any apparent problems? There are a series of technical issues to overcome and co-operation to put in place but the solution to this will not be a part of the UK effectively remaining a part of the SM when the rest leaves.
    Roads between the EU and Switzerland all have manned checkpoints.

    At a minimum they look like
    http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/cars-queue-at-the-border-crossing-between-france-and-switzerland-on-picture-id468328565

    Not something that I think anyone would enjoy building in Ireland.
    One of the images I found was this: https://c7.alamy.com/comp/KWHABB/at-german-swiss-border-KWHABB.jpg

    I think we could live with that.
    => this in fairly sharp order.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,264

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    Of course he does. But May would be more effectively defended by a Minister who hasn't had a very recent embarrassment. Everyone else seems to be maintaining a thoughtful silence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    As the EU response was inevitable but the tone was harsher the gov response will also be inevitable in trying to match that tone. I hope we don't get people pretending affront at the UK playing to the crowd in that- any further deal, softer or harder, will need the gov to persuade people to back it, and that would surely require an element of being seen to show some fight. If they roll over later they need the cover of seeming to have not done so earlier.
  • Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    Of course he does. But May would be more effectively defended by a Minister who hasn't had a very recent embarrassment. Everyone else seems to be maintaining a thoughtful silence.
    Grayling probably figures a full-throated defence of May helps his survival prospects.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    Of course he does. But May would be more effectively defended by a Minister who hasn't had a very recent embarrassment. Everyone else seems to be maintaining a thoughtful silence.
    So why didn't you say that rather than just having a pop at him.?
  • I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    You mean the man who made life miserable for Thameslink and Northern Rail users this summer who now tries to deny anything.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.

    At which point Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition and have the time of his life with the Tories and Leavers united behind him while Corbyn has to deal with Brexit and Labour divisions and the economy as PM without a plan beyond diluted Marxism and 'Brexit means Brexit' the Corbyn version

    Corbyn would deal with Brexit by blaming the Tories for the mess and allowing Keir Starmer to do a deal with the EU27 that looks very like Norway. He’ld leave the economy to McDonnell, who would institute a series of measures that look less like Marxism than social democracy plus. Corbyn would focus on foreign and defence policy - and that’s where the immense damage would be done. As for Johnson, if Corbyn is PM it would probably mean he has lost his seat.

    Norway is in the Single Market, yes. So why would Corbyn agree to that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kle4 said:

    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    We're the ones that wanted to leave. They are going to continue as is.
    Probably so. What has that to do with it being unreasonable of us to test their red lines in a negotiation but reasonable for them to test ours? The hypocrisy of some in pretending it's unreasonable for us to negotiate was my point. Both are reasonable to do, and the EU are not budging. That might mean no deal, bad for everyone, if we politically are unable to budge. But it is their right to prefer no deal to budging on a red line of course.

    Our inept government played it badly, that's not disputed here, but I object to implication sometimes expressed that testing the red lines is only ok in one direction
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    I was in Derry last week talking to some senior local and provincial government officials. No one seemed remotely in fear of being annexed.

    Hyperbolic to say the least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.

    At which point Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition and have the time of his life with the Tories and Leavers united behind him while Corbyn has to deal with Brexit and Labour divisions and the economy as PM without a plan beyond diluted Marxism and 'Brexit means Brexit' the Corbyn version

    Corbyn would deal with Brexit by blaming the Tories for the mess and allowing Keir Starmer to do a deal with the EU27 that looks very like Norway. He’ld leave the economy to McDonnell, who would institute a series of measures that look less like Marxism than social democracy plus. Corbyn would focus on foreign and defence policy - and that’s where the immense damage would be done. As for Johnson, if Corbyn is PM it would probably mean he has lost his seat.

    Norway is in the Single Market, yes. So why would Corbyn agree to that?
    I don't see why he wouldnt. He's more flexible than he used to be and would be happy with any arrangement that saw labour in power. Not even for himself exactly, but for s corbynite party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    OchEye said:

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Brexiteers are the ones who have put part of our country at risk of annexation. Remember how concerns over the Irish border were dismissed?
    As they should be. It's a load of nonsense being blown up to try and extort us. As would be shown if we leave without a backstop, the problem will sort itself out.
    Ireland will become one under Dublin. TMay or her successor will have to trot along to HMQ for the weekly meeting to explain how a part of the UK has been lost. Suspect it won't be a pleasant experience...
    Not if NI Protestants can help it, polling shows they still back staying in the UK even if a hard border.

    Plus the Republic would lose 15% of its national income under reunification according to the Irish Times yesterday as it would have to take on the substantive transfers to NI the UK would be freed from
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kle4 said:

    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    We're the ones that wanted to leave. They are going to continue as is.
    Probably so. What has that to do with it being unreasonable of us to test their red lines in a negotiation but reasonable for them to test ours? The hypocrisy of some in pretending it's unreasonable for us to negotiate was my point. Both are reasonable to do, and the EU are not budging. That might mean no deal, bad for everyone, if we politically are unable to budge. But it is their right to prefer no deal to budging on a red line of course.

    Our inept government played it badly, that's not disputed here, but I object to implication sometimes expressed that testing the red lines is only ok in one direction
    You are I think making a category error in calling the EU's rules "red lines". The EU is the EU. It is a club with rules and regs and we are leaving. We are then trying to "negotiate" re-entry on certain days for certain activities. But we won't be members any more. We are asking to come and have lunch in jeans and a t-shirt when the club rules say suit and tie. Is the wearing of a suit and tie a "red line"? Not really, it is the rules of the club.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    murali_s said:

    I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    She has two options: walk or capitulate.

    Knowing May I expect capitulation.
    I hope it's capitulation. I would say the odds are 60/40 in favour of capitulation at the moment.
    I don't see how she manages that which is why she needs to go. If capitulation is needed enough people need to accept that and they wont do that I think until hard or no deal is tested on the commons, and if she proposes to do either of those the obvious question is why not let the people advocating those options lead on it.

    I don't know how this all pans out, but I think in the immediate term a pivot to harder brexit will be tried, with a chance of referendums on the extremes of walking away or vassalage if that fails.

    Pleasant day all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    I expect if the prospect of No Deal Brexit looks likely by the end of October the current movement of Labour Remainers to the LDs to push for a second EU referendum and to oppose Brexit will only increase further

    Isn’t Labour about to own EUref2, and surge ahead in the opinion polls? According to one people’s vote supporting newspaper today they are.

    On topic, no I totally disagree with you Mike. The complete opposite is the truth! Conference week is the only week of the year awash with talk of unique values and differential polices, it’s the rest of the year all the parties ignore this. This is one of the reasons you can’t trust polls in conference season.
    Don’t just disagree with me, let’s put it to the test. I think headlines out of this labour conference will be dominated too much about Europe, and not enough about nationalisation of railways for that extra control, cheaper land purchases, gig economy pay and conditions, limbo of migrant workers from EU, and other discussions that would draw a crowd around their soapbox.

    I know now no one on this site agrees with me about how Politics actually works. But I am right.
    At most of would win back a few Remainers from the LDs at the cost of losing some Leavers to UKIP or the Tories
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2018

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    I was in Derry last week talking to some senior local and provincial government officials. No one seemed remotely in fear of being annexed.

    Hyperbolic to say the least.
    Did you visit Londonderry though? Those who say Derry may be less concerned than those that use the name of Londonderry.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    One of few good things that can be said about Farage is that as UKIP leader he did a pretty good job of keeping the BNP-types away or quiet.

    Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kle4 said:

    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    We're the ones that wanted to leave. They are going to continue as is.
    Probably so. What has that to do with it being unreasonable of us to test their red lines in a negotiation but reasonable for them to test ours? The hypocrisy of some in pretending it's unreasonable for us to negotiate was my point. Both are reasonable to do, and the EU are not budging. That might mean no deal, bad for everyone, if we politically are unable to budge. But it is their right to prefer no deal to budging on a red line of course.

    Our inept government played it badly, that's not disputed here, but I object to implication sometimes expressed that testing the red lines is only ok in one direction
    You are I think making a category error in calling the EU's rules "red lines". The EU is the EU. It is a club with rules and regs and we are leaving. We are then trying to "negotiate" re-entry on certain days for certain activities. But we won't be members any more. We are asking to come and have lunch in jeans and a t-shirt when the club rules say suit and tie. Is the wearing of a suit and tie a "red line"? Not really, it is the rules of the club.
    No I'm not because As we know the EU loves and is capable of many fudge. More to the point it is not I but now they defenders who have called them red lines. Even more to the point it still doesn't make asking for exception in a negotiation unreasonable when they want us to put a border in our own country and that's apparently reasonable. It makes it unrealistic, not unreasonable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Labour Left’s strategy is absolutely the correct one, given what its aims are. First, take over the Labour party and ensure that it cannot easily be dislodged. Then, with the benefit of the Labour brand and the Tories committing hari kiri over Brexit take power in the country. Why waste time discussing the issue of the day until they have power. This gives them flexibility to oppose everything and only work out what to do when they have the keys to no. 10.

    At which point Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition and have the time of his life with the Tories and Leavers united behind him while Corbyn has to deal with Brexit and Labour divisions and the economy as PM without a plan beyond diluted Marxism and 'Brexit means Brexit' the Corbyn version

    Corbyn would deal with Brexit by blaming the Tories for the mess and allowing Keir Starmer to do a deal with the EU27 that looks very like Norway. He’ld leave the economy to McDonnell, who would institute a series of measures that look less like Marxism than social democracy plus. Corbyn would focus on foreign and defence policy - and that’s where the immense damage would be done. As for Johnson, if Corbyn is PM it would probably mean he has lost his seat.

    Corbyn would wreck the economy Brexit or no Brexit, if he caves to the EU he annoys Leavers, if he sticks to Brexit he will annoy Remainers.

    Boris will hold Uxbridge easily on current polls if Corbyn becomes PM it will be in a hung parliament propped up by the LDs and SNP, unless Labour won a clear majority at the next general election Boris would hold Uxbridge even if Corbyn became PM
  • Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    This new UKIP is completely unacceptable. I wonder if they are trying to actively mirror momentum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    One of few good things that can be said about Farage is that as UKIP leader he did a pretty good job of keeping the BNP-types away or quiet.

    Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
    Just labour?
  • Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    One of few good things that can be said about Farage is that as UKIP leader he did a pretty good job of keeping the BNP-types away or quiet.

    Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
    The Conservatives have similarly been dragged towards the hard right in UKIP's wake, glorifying social conservatism and denigrating diversity. It all stems from the strategic decision of Leavers to pander to xenophobia.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    One of few good things that can be said about Farage is that as UKIP leader he did a pretty good job of keeping the BNP-types away or quiet.

    Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
    The Conservatives have similarly been dragged towards the hard right in UKIP's wake, glorifying social conservatism and denigrating diversity. It all stems from the strategic decision of Leavers to pander to xenophobia.
    It didn't start there and it wasn't just Conservative Leavers. E.g. the Cameron/Goldsmith mayoral campaign.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2018
    Briefed by 'senior officials', perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043053122820689921
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    I was in Derry last week talking to some senior local and provincial government officials. No one seemed remotely in fear of being annexed.

    Hyperbolic to say the least.
    Did you visit Londonderry though? Those who say Derry may be less concerned than those that use the name of Londonderry.
    I am crushed. Chortle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kle4 said:

    Not really since it essentially says while the EU has clear red lines how dare we have red lines well. It is surely the point of a negotiation to test how red each other's red lines are. May definitely miscalculated how red the EUs was, but that doesn't mean they are angels by comparison if they miscalculated how red ours are - And the reported bafflement at our position on Ireland lends that some credence.

    We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.

    We're the ones that wanted to leave. They are going to continue as is.
    Probably so. What has that to do with it being unreasonable of us to test their red lines in a negotiation but reasonable for them to test ours? The hypocrisy of some in pretending it's unreasonable for us to negotiate was my point. Both are reasonable to do, and the EU are not budging. That might mean no deal, bad for everyone, if we politically are unable to budge. But it is their right to prefer no deal to budging on a red line of course.

    Our inept government played it badly, that's not disputed here, but I object to implication sometimes expressed that testing the red lines is only ok in one direction
    You are I think making a category error in calling the EU's rules "red lines". The EU is the EU. It is a club with rules and regs and we are leaving. We are then trying to "negotiate" re-entry on certain days for certain activities. But we won't be members any more. We are asking to come and have lunch in jeans and a t-shirt when the club rules say suit and tie. Is the wearing of a suit and tie a "red line"? Not really, it is the rules of the club.
    No I'm not because As we know the EU loves and is capable of many fudge. More to the point it is not I but now they defenders who have called them red lines. Even more to the point it still doesn't make asking for exception in a negotiation unreasonable when they want us to put a border in our own country and that's apparently reasonable. It makes it unrealistic, not unreasonable.
    Of course it's capable of a fudge. It is incorrect to call them red lines (whoever is calling them red lines) because they are the existing rules. As per my analogy previously. A club has any number of rules and regs. Adhering to those rules and regs is simply what members do. They are unlikely to let one ex-member subvert the entire rules-based system while everyone else adheres to it.
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Fastest escalation from a trade deal to be settled over a cup of coffee since

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
  • OchEye said:

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Brexiteers are the ones who have put part of our country at risk of annexation. Remember how concerns over the Irish border were dismissed?
    As they should be. It's a load of nonsense being blown up to try and extort us. As would be shown if we leave without a backstop, the problem will sort itself out.
    Ireland will become one under Dublin. TMay or her successor will have to trot along to HMQ for the weekly meeting to explain how a part of the UK has been lost. Suspect it won't be a pleasant experience...
    It's the EU that is losing a part of itself, not the UK. Not that they seem too bothered.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    And why is Warren still second favourite for the Democratic nomination when a large majority of her home state apparently doesn't want her to run ?

    She leads in New Hampshire

    https://www.suffolk.edu/news/76890.php#.WwVmrNxKjX5
    What meaning does a poll in NH from this May have, for a race where candidates haven't even declared ?

    The current attitude of her own state, where she is a known quantity, is of considerably more relevance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat...
    Wouldn't a grayling look more like a sprat ?
  • I'm genuinely baffled, and curious, as to what May's next move is.

    She has two options: walk or capitulate.

    Knowing May I expect capitulation.
    I am not disagreeing. However, did anyone notice that all the comments from the EU leaders (esp Merkel) referred to the problems with Chequers in relation to the SM rather than NI.

    Maybe over-reading it, but if May did come back and agree to CETA on the basis the NI backstop went away, will the EU leaders really refuse? Nobody really thinks that the NI border is a threat to the SM. I am not sure I see Merkel going for no deal (which will end up with no resolution on the NI border either) on this basis especially when there really are no options left on the table.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    The UK will stay in the SM/CU. There is no seeming other way about it. Everyone is angry with TM atm so she may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. She might even realise this, as might she realise that there is a majority in the HoC for such status and it may even pass Lab's six tests (what are they? Owls for everyone?).

    So it's the old Freedom of Movement thingy that is the issue. In their current mood the EU doesn't seem likely to rebrand it so it can be fudged but maybe they will.

    It seems NickP has the most experience of their MO in this department - I wonder, Nick, are you surprised at the seeming intransigence they are displaying or is it, in your view, all part of the great game?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Fastest escalation from a trade deal to be settled over a cup of coffee since

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    The stretched twig of peace has melted...
    I miss those guys.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Are we to take Dorries’ suggestion of a pending major announcement from May seriously?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    I was in Derry last week talking to some senior local and provincial government officials. No one seemed remotely in fear of being annexed.

    Hyperbolic to say the least.
    Did you visit Londonderry though? Those who say Derry may be less concerned than those that use the name of Londonderry.
    I am crushed. Chortle.
    Derry Londonderry, surely ?
    Which can be sung to the tune of Gary Indiana from The Music Man...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    May chose Robbins over Boris, DD, Raab. Didn't he get a huge bonus ?

    She's running out of friends fast..
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically

    I was sceptical also but Yougov polling reckons it could get Labour an extra 1.5m votes.

    Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
  • TOPPING said:



    Of course it's capable of a fudge. It is incorrect to call them red lines (whoever is calling them red lines) because they are the existing rules. As per my analogy previously. A club has any number of rules and regs. Adhering to those rules and regs is simply what members do. They are unlikely to let one ex-member subvert the entire rules-based system while everyone else adheres to it.

    You are being (partially) disingenuous. If the EU want to enforce SM rules (even at the cost of their own wellbeing) then this is quite rightly a matter for them. I agree that most of what the UK have proposed for the last two years crosses their red lines. Fair enough.

    But on NI they have no basis whatsoever for insisting on the backstop. We are entitled to leave and the border issue is a joint outcome of this decision which is allowed by the treaties. It is the UK's red line. It is not a genuine threat to the EU. And it is the NI backstop, not the trade, which has poisoned the talks for months.

    Be honest. May offered Chequers because she said (rightly) it is the only plan that solves the NI Backstop without separating NI into the CU. If the EU had accepted a sensible technology based plan for the border back in 2017, May would probably have moved to CETA by now and this would be done and dusted.

    Sorry, the failure here is that Barnier is out to humiliate the UK, not get a deal. If this all falls over, it will go down in history as the greatest example of completely overplaying a strong hand.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    Here's what I don't understand: lots of people on here and various other commentators said the EU were going to tell May to shove Chequers up her crack. Why didn't May plus her various parasitic organisms like Raab know this?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    Of course he does. But May would be more effectively defended by a Minister who hasn't had a very recent embarrassment. Everyone else seems to be maintaining a thoughtful silence.
    So why didn't you say that rather than just having a pop at him.?
    No excuse needed to have a pop at Grayling.
    It's practically a civic duty.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Theresa May in full "bloody difficult woman" mode it seems.

    She really has two massive problems: the people she picks to surround her - and listening to the people she picks to surround her.
  • When are the Leavers gathering for the amphibious assault on the continent?

    It's a more sensible approach than agreeing to Barniers backstop. If they want to annex a part of our country that's an issue normally settled by war.
    Fastest escalation from a trade deal to be settled over a cup of coffee since

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    Looks like you hit Mr Thompson's nail on it's head. War it is!
  • Mr. Topping, if she opts for that, she'd be wise to go for another referendum (from a purely self-interested perspective).
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rkrkrk said:

    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically

    I was sceptical also but Yougov polling reckons it could get Labour an extra 1.5m votes.

    Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
    From a purely tactical POV I wonder if a slow drift towards remain as things get worse and the Tories continue to struggle (assuming they do) would be for the best. Those who voted leave could see that we gave it a chance but the Tories have messed it up and part of the clean up process will be remain or maybe Norway.
  • If even Kevin Maguire thinks this....

    twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1043056815972528128

    Labour's position on Brexit is 100 per cent clear and unambiguous. Labour is opposed to this Tory Brexit.

    Right now, that is all that matters.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    I was just going to post this - Nadine Dorris was also suggesting similar. I wonder..?
  • big statement ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, the creeping normalisation of the far right continues:

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352

    Really isn't much difference between old BNP and new UKIP. But they will be fielding about 8 candidates at the General Election, so new UKIP going the same way.
    One of few good things that can be said about Farage is that as UKIP leader he did a pretty good job of keeping the BNP-types away or quiet.

    Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
    The Conservatives have similarly been dragged towards the hard right in UKIP's wake, glorifying social conservatism and denigrating diversity. It all stems from the strategic decision of Leavers to pander to xenophobia.
    I read this and thought of your obsession with a high scoring scrabble word Mr Meeks.

    https://quillette.com/2018/09/21/the-preachers-of-the-great-awokening/

    "We have argued that this perspective offers insights into the behavior of those who inhabit the culture and spread the norms of Wokeness. Chiefly, it contends that (a) many Whites use the vocabulary of social justice to signal their erudition, cosmopolitanism, and commitment to the cause so as to distinguish themselves from hoi polloi. And that (b) the preachers of the Great Awokening serve the crucial function of legitimizing the resulting status disparity. Their teachings assuage the guilt of the elite and blunt the bitterness of hoi polloi. And, therefore, those preachers are recompensed with status.

    The danger is that the status desires of these preachers will eclipse their moral concerns. (Some, of course, would claim that this has already happened.) And then the preachers will become moral peacocks, showcasing eloquent and fantastical sermons to a dwindling but increasingly fanatical base."
  • I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    You mean the man who made life miserable for Thameslink and Northern Rail users this summer who now tries to deny anything.
    To be fair, the root cause of the problems predate his time at the DfT. However he does share some direct blame for decisions made, and his reaction to the problems when they started was awful.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rkrkrk said:

    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically

    I was sceptical also but Yougov polling reckons it could get Labour an extra 1.5m votes.

    Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
    Labour's best strategy is to keep it on the table as an option for if the negotiations go catastrophically. If May somehow pulls out a deal and the nation is sighing with relief, Labour would look incredibly stupid and irrelevant if they were sitting on the sidelines calling for a referendum without any justification
  • Perhaps it’s lost in translation and May is going to make a fashion statement by wearing a Vivienne Westwood chainmail suit.
  • Mr. Glenn, a chainmail suit would be ridiculous. A byrnie or hauberk would be more in keeping with history.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited September 2018

    rkrkrk said:

    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically

    I was sceptical also but Yougov polling reckons it could get Labour an extra 1.5m votes.

    Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
    From a purely tactical POV I wonder if a slow drift towards remain as things get worse and the Tories continue to struggle (assuming they do) would be for the best. Those who voted leave could see that we gave it a chance but the Tories have messed it up and part of the clean up process will be remain or maybe Norway.
    I'm not sure "our PM" being "bullied by Brussels" will help any drift to Remain. The politically not-very-aware in the middle ground who gave us Brexit might have sensed it isn't going well - but are much more likely today to be thinking "better off out, regardless" than they were yesterday.

    Brussels twirling its moustache and swirling its cape is never going to get the crowd on your side in Brexit-pantoland.
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