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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    edited September 2018

    TOPPING said:



    Of course it's capable of a fudge. It is incorrect to call them red lines (whoever is calling them red lines) because they are the existing rules. As per my analogy previously. A club has any number of rules and regs. Adhering to those rules and regs is simply what members do. They are unlikely to let one ex-member subvert the entire rules-based system while everyone else adheres to it.

    You are being (partially) disingenuous. If the EU want to enforce SM rules (even at the cost of their own wellbeing) then this is quite rightly a matter for them. I agree that most of what the UK have proposed for the last two years crosses their red lines. Fair enough.

    But on NI they have no basis whatsoever for insisting on the backstop. We are entitled to leave and the border issue is a joint outcome of this decision which is allowed by the treaties. It is the UK's red line. It is not a genuine threat to the EU. And it is the NI backstop, not the trade, which has poisoned the talks for months.

    Be honest. May offered Chequers because she said (rightly) it is the only plan that solves the NI Backstop without separating NI into the CU. If the EU had accepted a sensible technology based plan for the border back in 2017, May would probably have moved to CETA by now and this would be done and dusted.

    Sorry, the failure here is that Barnier is out to humiliate the UK, not get a deal. If this all falls over, it will go down in history as the greatest example of completely overplaying a strong hand.
    Yes, yes and yes. It is the NI tail wagging the overall settlement dog. I have never disputed that, indeed I wrote a whole thread about it.

    So why are they insisting on the backstop? They want to avoid any return to a hard border which is in accordance with both the RoI and the UK. So they have realised or been told by Varadkar that this is important. And indeed it is important. So much so that as has been well rehearsed on here, May is in the position of not being able to be the PM which lost the UK (the backstop) or presided over a return to the Troubles (a hard border). Hence her attempt at Chequers but of course for the EU, services and goods are indivisible. And back it came.

    And hence also, as per my next post above, the only possible option which will solve for all those issues is SM/CU and FoM.

    Now, some would say that SM/CU/FoM is fine and dandy and point to the EEA countries as Non-EU members who seem to function perfectly well, and are and always were sovereign. Others, might be less enthusiastic but this has no basis in reality or pragmatism and relies on an invention of what the ballot paper in June 2016 never said.
  • I see Grayling has come out swinging over Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

    Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?

    You are getting rather nasty. Grayling is a prat but he has a right to speak out about this just like any other Minister.
    You mean the man who made life miserable for Thameslink and Northern Rail users this summer who now tries to deny anything.
    To be fair, the root cause of the problems predate his time at the DfT. However he does share some direct blame for decisions made, and his reaction to the problems when they started was awful.
    At the time, I thought Hammond was the worst Transport Secretary ever to hold the post. Now, Grayling has taken over that title, whereas Hammond seems to be the grown-up in the Cabinet. The depths we have fallen to.
  • TOPPING said:

    The UK will stay in the SM/CU. There is no seeming other way about it. Everyone is angry with TM atm so she may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. She might even realise this, as might she realise that there is a majority in the HoC for such status and it may even pass Lab's six tests (what are they? Owls for everyone?).

    So it's the old Freedom of Movement thingy that is the issue. In their current mood the EU doesn't seem likely to rebrand it so it can be fudged but maybe they will.

    It seems NickP has the most experience of their MO in this department - I wonder, Nick, are you surprised at the seeming intransigence they are displaying or is it, in your view, all part of the great game?

    CU can be fudged. FoM can also be fudged given no-one in government, business or the Establishment generally has any serious interest in curbing immigration from anywhere at all, in or out of the EU. It is just a matter of finding a form of words that makes it looks as if we could if we wanted to but we don't so we won't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Whether or not Chequers is on a mortuary slab, I think we can say that the happy dancing Theresa May persona her people were trying to promote lasted about a fortnight....
  • TOPPING said:

    <
    Yes, yes and yes. It is the NI tail wagging the overall settlement dog. I have never disputed that, indeed I wrote a whole thread about it.

    So why are they insisting on the backstop? They want to avoid any return to a hard border which is in accordance with both the RoI and the UK. So they have realised or been told by Varadkar that this is important. And indeed it is important. So much so that as has been well rehearsed on here, May is in the position of not being able to be the PM which lost the UK (the backstop) or presided over a return to the Troubles (a hard border). Hence her attempt at Chequers but of course for the EU, services and goods are indivisible. And back it came.

    And hence also, as per my next post above, the only possible option which will solve for all those issues is SM/CU and FoM.

    Now, some would say that SM/CU/FoM is fine and dandy and point to the EEA countries as Non-EU members who seem to function perfectly well. Others, might be less enthusiastic but this has no basis in reality or pragmatism and relies on an invention of what the ballot paper in June 2016 never said.

    Enda Kenny knew immediately that the NI border after Brexit would have to be solved by technology. He opened negotiations and it was all going fine until he got toppled. There is no need for a hard border and even the EU admit that in no deal it is not going to happen. Sorry, but this is nothing to do with NI - this is a negotiating tactic to humiliate the UK for leaving. Everyone can see it. Therefore SM/CU is not the only solution and it will not be adopted.

    If we do have No Deal, the border problem will solve itself. We will then have to negotiate an FTA later. Not ideal, but entirely the EUs fault.
  • TOPPING said:

    The UK will stay in the SM/CU. There is no seeming other way about it. Everyone is angry with TM atm so she may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. She might even realise this, as might she realise that there is a majority in the HoC for such status and it may even pass Lab's six tests (what are they? Owls for everyone?).

    So it's the old Freedom of Movement thingy that is the issue. In their current mood the EU doesn't seem likely to rebrand it so it can be fudged but maybe they will.

    It seems NickP has the most experience of their MO in this department - I wonder, Nick, are you surprised at the seeming intransigence they are displaying or is it, in your view, all part of the great game?

    CU can be fudged. FoM can also be fudged given no-one in government, business or the Establishment generally has any serious interest in curbing immigration from anywhere at all, in or out of the EU. It is just a matter of finding a form of words that makes it looks as if we could if we wanted to but we don't so we won't.
    A customs union cannot be fudged. It is a binary thing - you are in it and follow its rules, or you are not. Surely by now people saying that everything can be 'fudged' without giving any explanation as to how will have learned their lesson? We are dealing with real, legal treaties, not some vague communique.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    TOPPING said:

    <
    Yes, yes and yes. It is the NI tail wagging the overall settlement dog. I have never disputed that, indeed I wrote a whole thread about it.

    So why are they insisting on the backstop? They want to avoid any return to a hard border which is in accordance with both the RoI and the UK. So they have realised or been told by Varadkar that this is important. And indeed it is important. So much so that as has been well rehearsed on here, May is in the position of not being able to be the PM which lost the UK (the backstop) or presided over a return to the Troubles (a hard border). Hence her attempt at Chequers but of course for the EU, services and goods are indivisible. And back it came.

    And hence also, as per my next post above, the only possible option which will solve for all those issues is SM/CU and FoM.

    Now, some would say that SM/CU/FoM is fine and dandy and point to the EEA countries as Non-EU members who seem to function perfectly well. Others, might be less enthusiastic but this has no basis in reality or pragmatism and relies on an invention of what the ballot paper in June 2016 never said.

    Enda Kenny knew immediately that the NI border after Brexit would have to be solved by technology. He opened negotiations and it was all going fine until he got toppled. There is no need for a hard border and even the EU admit that in no deal it is not going to happen. Sorry, but this is nothing to do with NI - this is a negotiating tactic to humiliate the UK for leaving. Everyone can see it. Therefore SM/CU is not the only solution and it will not be adopted.

    If we do have No Deal, the border problem will solve itself. We will then have to negotiate an FTA later. Not ideal, but entirely the EUs fault.
    Any physical border in Ireland will be to hang up signs saying "You are leaving the EU", not "Welcome to the UK".
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Here's what I don't understand: lots of people on here and various other commentators said the EU were going to tell May to shove Chequers up her crack. Why didn't May plus her various parasitic organisms like Raab know this?

    She has to be seen making the effort, otherwise her opponents will say she didn't try, and she needs to get out of the way and let them have a go. The same logic explains why she took so long before she even did Chequers.

    This strategy is sort-of working; She's still there, and everybody can see that the only more Brexitish alternative to the compromises she's going to make is a car crash.
  • I was looking for an EU referendum market (to hedge a prior bet) on Ladbrokes and happened to notice a Corbyn speech bingo market.

    Nothing especially grabbed me, in either, must admit.
  • I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,013
    May would get better advice from here for free.

  • Labour's best strategy is to keep it on the table as an option for if the negotiations go catastrophically. If May somehow pulls out a deal and the nation is sighing with relief, Labour would look incredibly stupid and irrelevant if they were sitting on the sidelines calling for a referendum without any justification

    Right - I mean, even if they planned to do this all along, they're better off waiting until the government - shockingly - fails to come up with a way forward that keeps the promises made by the Leave campaign.

    What could cause them problems would be if the government called an election *now*. Maybe it should; Just advocate a border in the Irish Sea and ask the voters to give them a chance to do the thing without the DUP, English voters generally don't care about NI either way.
  • ... or indeed anything? Time to throw it back to the People for a Vote.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    TOPPING said:

    <
    Yes, yes and yes. It is the NI tail wagging the overall settlement dog. I have never disputed that, indeed I wrote a whole thread about it.

    So why are they insisting on the backstop? They want to avoid any return to a hard border which is in accordance with both the RoI and the UK. So they have realised or been told by Varadkar that this is important. And indeed it is important. So much so that as has been well rehearsed on here, May is in the position of not being able to be the PM which lost the UK (the backstop) or presided over a return to the Troubles (a hard border). Hence her attempt at Chequers but of course for the EU, services and goods are indivisible. And back it came.

    And hence also, as per my next post above, the only possible option which will solve for all those issues is SM/CU and FoM.

    Now, some would say that SM/CU/FoM is fine and dandy and point to the EEA countries as Non-EU members who seem to function perfectly well. Others, might be less enthusiastic but this has no basis in reality or pragmatism and relies on an invention of what the ballot paper in June 2016 never said.

    Enda Kenny knew immediately that the NI border after Brexit would have to be solved by technology. He opened negotiations and it was all going fine until he got toppled. There is no need for a hard border and even the EU admit that in no deal it is not going to happen. Sorry, but this is nothing to do with NI - this is a negotiating tactic to humiliate the UK for leaving. Everyone can see it. Therefore SM/CU is not the only solution and it will not be adopted.

    If we do have No Deal, the border problem will solve itself. We will then have to negotiate an FTA later. Not ideal, but entirely the EUs fault.
    "The EU's fault"?? It is a negotiation. They want what they want and we want what we want.

    "The border problem will solve itself" is simply not the case. It is why No Deal is off the table. Theresa May cannot be the Prime Minister that violated the spirit of the Belfast Agreement and the EU realised that before her government did. May did nothing to address a technological solution: surely it wasn't only Kenny who was able at least to start work on some kind of technological border. She didn't do it because...because...who the hell knows but we are where we are and we are heading towards an EEA Max of some flavour.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,103
    Does the chair of the 1922 Committee only count votes when Parliament is sitting?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200


    Labour's best strategy is to keep it on the table as an option for if the negotiations go catastrophically. If May somehow pulls out a deal and the nation is sighing with relief, Labour would look incredibly stupid and irrelevant if they were sitting on the sidelines calling for a referendum without any justification

    Right - I mean, even if they planned to do this all along, they're better off waiting until the government - shockingly - fails to come up with a way forward that keeps the promises made by the Leave campaign.

    What could cause them problems would be if the government called an election *now*. Maybe it should; Just advocate a border in the Irish Sea and ask the voters to give them a chance to do the thing without the DUP, English voters generally don't care about NI either way.
    I think that may misread the attitude of the Mainlanders to the six counties.

    I'll agree by and large the mainlanders may not be fussed.

    However when a third party comes and dictates the changes and terms, I suspect the mainlanders get a bit bloody minded and protective of the U.K.
  • Mr. Topping, blaming May for Varadkar ending co-operation on the border is unreasonable. A border functioning requires both sides to work on it.

    [There's plenty of legitimate grounds to knock May, but that isn't one of them].
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
    That is an important point. What became of all those pre-talks with Merkel?

    Looks like May has been on a steep learning curve about EU duplicity.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,460
    edited September 2018
    One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
  • A general election, and indeed labour in charge won't change anythign with Brexit. there's only ever been 4 options. No-deal. Canada. Norway. No Leave. To pretend labour would do better than that is nonsense.

    That's it.....
  • I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
    That is an important point. What became of all those pre-talks with Merkel?

    Looks like May has been on a steep learning curve about EU duplicity.
    If you remember the outcome of the meeting with Merkel was her telling the German government that while Chequers doesn't make sense, they should be nice about it for the time being. That approach has simply run out of road, and Merkel can't force the whole of Europe to keep up the pretence.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    ... or indeed anything? Time to throw it back to the People for a Vote.
    Where it will become a membership of CU / SM vs non acceptance of 4 Freedoms vote.

    Regardless of your viewpoint, make an experiment, try campaigning for the abstract and non tangible CU/SM and then try campaigning against the 4 freedoms, FOM and immigration. It is much easier to make an emotional argument against 4 freedoms than for, CU / SM. One is tangible and can be seen, one isn't. I think that gives the anti campaign a significant advantage.

    Therefore I would anticipate the result of a second peoples vote is one that our esteemed Mr Meeks would despair in, causing him to ruefully note that the xenophobic swelling of the nation was running unchecked, resulting in the abandonment of the 4 freedoms (and loss of the CU / SM) because of the racist nature of the uneducated.
  • TOPPING said:

    "The border problem will solve itself" is simply not the case. It is why No Deal is off the table. Theresa May cannot be the Prime Minister that violated the spirit of the Belfast Agreement and the EU realised that before her government did. May did nothing to address a technological solution: surely it wasn't only Kenny who was able at least to start work on some kind of technological border. She didn't do it because...because...who the hell knows but we are where we are and we are heading towards an EEA Max of some flavour.

    If May had added a passage to Lancaster House, before she'd invoked Article 50 and while she still had a majority, saying that Northern Ireland would need a specific solution then we could have worked all of this out without a ticking clock and pressure from the EU.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,818

    rkrkrk said:

    Mikes Political Radar is completely off IMO

    A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically

    I was sceptical also but Yougov polling reckons it could get Labour an extra 1.5m votes.

    Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
    Labour's best strategy is to keep it on the table as an option for if the negotiations go catastrophically. If May somehow pulls out a deal and the nation is sighing with relief, Labour would look incredibly stupid and irrelevant if they were sitting on the sidelines calling for a referendum without any justification
    Yes, I think you're right. Ambiguity remains the best bet...
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    It's all very well to say that, but how does it happen under the rules? It could only be a coronation of a unity candidate acceptable to both wings *and* to any other potential unity candidate who might not want to step aside.
  • TOPPING said:

    The UK will stay in the SM/CU. There is no seeming other way about it. Everyone is angry with TM atm so she may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. She might even realise this, as might she realise that there is a majority in the HoC for such status and it may even pass Lab's six tests (what are they? Owls for everyone?).

    So it's the old Freedom of Movement thingy that is the issue. In their current mood the EU doesn't seem likely to rebrand it so it can be fudged but maybe they will.

    It seems NickP has the most experience of their MO in this department - I wonder, Nick, are you surprised at the seeming intransigence they are displaying or is it, in your view, all part of the great game?

    CU can be fudged. FoM can also be fudged given no-one in government, business or the Establishment generally has any serious interest in curbing immigration from anywhere at all, in or out of the EU. It is just a matter of finding a form of words that makes it looks as if we could if we wanted to but we don't so we won't.
    A customs union cannot be fudged. It is a binary thing - you are in it and follow its rules, or you are not. Surely by now people saying that everything can be 'fudged' without giving any explanation as to how will have learned their lesson? We are dealing with real, legal treaties, not some vague communique.
    CU is fudged by relabelling. We are in *a* customs union not *the* customs union. It could also be fudged by class of goods but since customs unions are lovely and the only fudge needed is to avoid Theresa May looking like she's U-turned, there is no point.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Realpolitik.

    Where there's a need, there's a way.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.


    Also this has the added bonus of winding up the membership.
  • I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
    That is an important point. What became of all those pre-talks with Merkel?

    Looks like May has been on a steep learning curve about EU duplicity.
    Merkel is preoccupied domestically.She's even left Macron hung out to dry....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,449
    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
  • philiph said:

    One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.


    Also this has the added bonus of winding up the membership.
    The current leader did require an election. It was only cut short because of Leadsom's gaffe.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    It does need a PM prepared to sit on their hands as it happens though.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    That dog has been doing a lot of non-barking.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    It's all very well to say that, but how does it happen under the rules? It could only be a coronation of a unity candidate acceptable to both wings *and* to any other potential unity candidate who might not want to step aside.
    I'm not saying it would happen, but it's possible, if unlikely. But they would not want a fatally wounded and weakened leader which she would be, if she's not already.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    And this again, is what the business-friendly pragmatist wing of the Tories won't allow. So we're back to the two options, which means a referendum.

    This has been set since June.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    philiph said:

    One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.


    Also this has the added bonus of winding up the membership.
    The current leader did require an election. It was only cut short because of Leadsom's gaffe.
    So there was no election needed. Gaffes can be engineered, planted, implemented. The pressure needs to be at the right time.

    Chukka withdrew from a Labour contest, Boris from a Tory contest. Apply the pressure later and you still get the same result, withdrawal.
  • One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Realpolitik.

    Where there's a need, there's a way.
    On what policy towards the EU? In 2003, the Conservative party was united not just on the uselessness of IDS. In the envisaged circumstances, if no challenge is to be made, the new leader is going to have to have a line on the EU that will get the party through a general election. Good luck trying to reconcile all the different viewpoints in the person of Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid or Michael Gove, in fevered times.
  • philiph said:

    One path we haven't really discussed is that the Tories lose a parliamentary vote, Corbyn demands an election, and TMay agrees, fights the election and wins it.
    May wouldn't fight that election. A new leader would be in before you know it.
    By what mechanism?
    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.


    Also this has the added bonus of winding up the membership.
    The current leader did require an election. It was only cut short because of Leadsom's gaffe.
    The MPs could rally behind a unity candidate. Unlikely atm.
    The candidates could theoretically agree to let the MPs decide - that the runner up would withdraw Leadsom-style.
  • philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,950
    edited September 2018

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    Remember the pact between Ken Clarke and John Redwood in 97? And he still lost to a young Eurosceptic.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    <
    Yes, yes and yes. It is the NI tail wagging the overall settlement dog. I have never disputed that, indeed I wrote a whole thread about it.

    So why are they insisting on the backstop? They want to avoid any return to a hard border which is in accordance with both the RoI and the UK. So they have realised or been told by Varadkar that this is important. And indeed it is important. So much so that as has been well rehearsed on here, May is in the position of not being able to be the PM which lost the UK (the backstop) or presided over a return to the Troubles (a hard border). Hence her attempt at Chequers but of course for the EU, services and goods are indivisible. And back it came.

    And hence also, as per my next post above, the only possible option which will solve for all those issues is SM/CU and FoM.

    Now, some would say that SM/CU/FoM is fine and dandy and point to the EEA countries as Non-EU members who seem to function perfectly well. Others, might be less enthusiastic but this has no basis in reality or pragmatism and relies on an invention of what the ballot paper in June 2016 never said.

    Enda Kenny knew immediately that the NI border after Brexit would have to be solved by technology. He opened negotiations and it was all going fine until he got toppled. There is no need for a hard border and even the EU admit that in no deal it is not going to happen. Sorry, but this is nothing to do with NI - this is a negotiating tactic to humiliate the UK for leaving. Everyone can see it. Therefore SM/CU is not the only solution and it will not be adopted.

    If we do have No Deal, the border problem will solve itself. We will then have to negotiate an FTA later. Not ideal, but entirely the EUs fault.
    "The EU's fault"?? It is a negotiation. They want what they want and we want what we want.

    "The border problem will solve itself" is simply not the case. It is why No Deal is off the table. Theresa May cannot be the Prime Minister that violated the spirit of the Belfast Agreement and the EU realised that before her government did. May did nothing to address a technological solution: surely it wasn't only Kenny who was able at least to start work on some kind of technological border. She didn't do it because...because...who the hell knows but we are where we are and we are heading towards an EEA Max of some flavour.
    If no deal is 'off the table' it is not because of the NI border. What do you think will actually happen? I can tell you - nothing. The UK will announce it will accept goods from the EU, the EU will moan but not close the border and the thing will become a de facto soft border. ROI and UK customs will sort it out behind the scenes. Eventually, the tracking mechanisms that have been suggested will simply be put in place.
  • 72% of Conservative Leavers when polled recently felt that Brexit was more important than having a Conservative government. They won't be very interested in a unity candidate.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,449

    GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    And this again, is what the business-friendly pragmatist wing of the Tories won't allow. So we're back to the two options, which means a referendum.

    This has been set since June.
    There is no majority in Parliament for another referendum - There might be for a general election though...
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    And this again, is what the business-friendly pragmatist wing of the Tories won't allow. So we're back to the two options, which means a referendum.

    This has been set since June.
    There is no majority in Parliament for another referendum - There might be for a general election though...
    Not sure I agree with that. If the crisis in negotiations continues as predicted, both the prospect of no deal will be far closer, with its attendant financial fallout already becoming more obvious, and the tories poll ratings will suffer. The weight of those two things would surely be inclined to push tory mps away from the election option, towards a referendum option, I would say.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking majority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
  • The whole negotiation has just been a complete disaster. We should surely have started from a position of either BINO/EEA/Vassal state (acceptable to the EU) or No Deal (the default) and then negotiated our way towards the middle: an EEA-type arrangement, or Hard Brexit but without the risk of grounded planes or food shortages.

    Instead we have wasted the last couple of years cobbling together an ill-thought out dogs breakfast that was never going to be acceptable to the EU, and now we have very little time left to negotiate a mitigated version of either of the two extremes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
    That is an important point. What became of all those pre-talks with Merkel?

    Looks like May has been on a steep learning curve about EU duplicity.
    Merkel is preoccupied domestically.She's even left Macron hung out to dry....
    There would be more understanding of the situation if people remembered/realised that for each individual country UK trade is approx 6-10% of the total. For the UK, of course, it is nearly half. Each EU country therefore cares a lot less (not to say 6-10% is not important but still) than we do.

    That (wilful?) misunderstanding informed much of the flawed approach to Brexit since DD was appointed and since and up to today.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,449

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    And this again, is what the business-friendly pragmatist wing of the Tories won't allow. So we're back to the two options, which means a referendum.

    This has been set since June.
    There is no majority in Parliament for another referendum - There might be for a general election though...
    Not sure I agree with that. If the crisis in negotiations continues as predicted, both the prospect of no deal will be far closer, with its attendant financial fallout already becoming more obvious, and the tories poll ratings will suffer. The weight of those two things would surely be inclined to push tory mps away from the election option, towards a referendum option, I would say.
    Doubt it. The ERG will never go for a second referendum and Jezza/Labour wants a general election rather than another referendum.
  • philiph said:

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking smajority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
    The Tory party can't though, because it's split between the Sovereigntists and Pragmatists ( Tory "Remainer", but different from remainers in other parties in being almost completely commercially pragmatic about the process).

    The Pragmatists won't allow Canada or No-Deal, and the Sovereigntists won't allow Remain or EEA. It's been the same pit of stasis since June, and they'll eventually settle on a second referendum, because it's the only way to firstly hold their party together , and simultaneously block Corbyn.
  • This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

  • eekeek Posts: 7,056

    philiph said:

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking smajority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
    The Tory party can't though, because it's split between the Sovereigntists and Pragmatists ( Tory "Remainer", but different from remainers in other parties in being almost completely commercially pragmatic about the process).

    The Pragmatists won't allow Canada or No-Deal, and the Sovereigntists won't allow Remain or EEA. It's been the same pit of stasis since June, and they'll eventually settle on a second referendum, because it's the only way to firstly hold their party together , and simultaneously block Corbyn.
    I don't see how you hold a referendum for what would have to be a nuanced question with more than 2 possibilities....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    I am going to give May some backing here. Of course she had to push the matter at Salzberg - we are months away from the end of the process and the EU were running down the clock. She may not have received the answer she wanted, but better to know now.

    Would have been better if they told her before she announced it as well. There is NO WAY she announced Chequers without getting significant signals from the EU that it would be acceptable. Big_G is right - they humiliated her and it is not an acceptable way to behave.
    That is an important point. What became of all those pre-talks with Merkel?

    Looks like May has been on a steep learning curve about EU duplicity.
    If you remember the outcome of the meeting with Merkel was her telling the German government that while Chequers doesn't make sense, they should be nice about it for the time being. That approach has simply run out of road, and Merkel can't force the whole of Europe to keep up the pretence.
    All part of the running down the clock strategy. May - and especially her advisors - should have been well aware that was the game being played.
  • philiph said:

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking smajority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
    The Tory party can't though, because it's split between the Sovereigntists and Pragmatists ( Tory "Remainer", but different from remainers in other parties in being almost completely commercially pragmatic about the process).

    The Pragmatists won't allow Canada or No-Deal, and the Sovereigntists won't allow Remain or EEA. It's been the same pit of stasis since June, and they'll eventually settle on a second referendum, because it's the only way to firstly hold their party together , and simultaneously block Corbyn.
    Does anyone think that a referendum will solve anything. Even if Remain then win it, about 40%+ of the population will think they've been seriously cheated, and that'll taint politics for decades.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    It's going to require a Frankenstein-style re-animation.

    More brains, Igor.....
  • Dead On Arrival.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    If no deal is 'off the table' it is not because of the NI border. What do you think will actually happen? I can tell you - nothing. The UK will announce it will accept goods from the EU, the EU will moan but not close the border and the thing will become a de facto soft border. ROI and UK customs will sort it out behind the scenes. Eventually, the tracking mechanisms that have been suggested will simply be put in place.

    Well leaving aside the taking back control issue of choosing not to police your own border, what will happen if it is as you describe is that there will be a huge increase in smuggling, an issue that is already worrying locals. If we say "we accept everything" then expect new "trade routes" to be set up straddling the border.

    There are of course differential rates as we speak between the two entities but the smuggling would explode (!) in volume. If we were to move to "crash out" to WTO terms then it might not be long before another WTO member, the US, say, were to seek a legal ruling in WTO dispute settlement that it was being unfairly discriminated against as there would be no checks for RoI widgets but that US widgets were subject to checks.

    If ruled thus, the UK would then have to bin checks on US widgets or institute checks at the border for RoI widgets.

    I agree that at some point we will look to a technological solution but as they say, you can't get to there from here, as it stands.
  • This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    I’m sure they’re quaking with fear. Chortle.
  • This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    This will lead to humiliation and defeat for the UK. I hope you rethink again.
  • philiph said:

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking smajority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
    The Tory party can't though, because it's split between the Sovereigntists and Pragmatists ( Tory "Remainer", but different from remainers in other parties in being almost completely commercially pragmatic about the process).

    The Pragmatists won't allow Canada or No-Deal, and the Sovereigntists won't allow Remain or EEA. It's been the same pit of stasis since June, and they'll eventually settle on a second referendum, because it's the only way to firstly hold their party together , and simultaneously block Corbyn.
    Does anyone think that a referendum will solve anything. Even if Remain then win it, about 40%+ of the population will think they've been seriously cheated, and that'll taint politics for decades.
    Tainted politics is the least of Britain's problems. Also it's more like 30%+, and there's no winning with those guys anyhow - they're going to think they've been betrayed by any plausible deal or non-deal.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Doesn't need to be a majority for "No Deal" as it's the default result of A50.
    And this again, is what the business-friendly pragmatist wing of the Tories won't allow. So we're back to the two options, which means a referendum.

    This has been set since June.
    There is no majority in Parliament for another referendum - There might be for a general election though...
    Not sure I agree with that. If the crisis in negotiations continues as predicted, both the prospect of no deal will be far closer, with its attendant financial fallout already becoming more obvious, and the tories poll ratings will suffer. The weight of those two things would surely be inclined to push tory mps away from the election option, towards a referendum option, I would say.
    Doubt it. The ERG will never go for a second referendum and Jezza/Labour wants a general election rather than another referendum.
    Jezza does, but much of his party, from Momentum to Blair-era politicians, and many of his voters, according to the latest polling, want a referendum.
    That will surely play a part in focusing minds at the top of Labour HQ.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,449

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers


    +1 Big G. :D
  • philiph said:

    philiph said:


    Presume the Tory party is capable of acting in haste. The current leader required no election, Howard required no election. It can be a quick process.

    I don't think either of those methods are compatible with a party deep in a sincerely-felt factional bun-fight. I mean, you could try to find a unity candidate who appeals to the central part of both wings, but that's what TMay is, so what's the point?
    By the time this situation is current there will be a reduction in options available through negotiation with EU. I think it will be reduced to a maximum of No Deal, Canada(+?), EEA or Remain.

    Supporters of the two extremes will be minimal. While the remaining options are very different, I would be amazed the Parliamentary Tory party couldn't back one of these options with a stonking smajority. Not sure which they would choose, but that could depend on how we get there and public opinion at the time.

    As we go through each stage, the options reduce, consequently the party begins to coalesce round the remaining options and healing of the old wounds begins.
    The Tory party can't though, because it's split between the Sovereigntists and Pragmatists ( Tory "Remainer", but different from remainers in other parties in being almost completely commercially pragmatic about the process).

    The Pragmatists won't allow Canada or No-Deal, and the Sovereigntists won't allow Remain or EEA. It's been the same pit of stasis since June, and they'll eventually settle on a second referendum, because it's the only way to firstly hold their party together , and simultaneously block Corbyn.
    Does anyone think that a referendum will solve anything. Even if Remain then win it, about 40%+ of the population will think they've been seriously cheated, and that'll taint politics for decades.
    It may not answer the question constitutionally, but if may prove too politically expedient for both Labour and the Tories for them to be able to avert it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 31,308
    edited September 2018

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    This will lead to humiliation and defeat for the UK. I hope you rethink again.
    Not after yesterday. They are not people I want to have anything to do with - just a bunch of overgrown childish schoolboys, some of whom are not elected

  • Dead On Arrival.
    Thanks - I must be a bit naive
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    edited September 2018

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
  • This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    I’m sure they’re quaking with fear. Chortle.
    Big_G has shown today he is a class act. You have just shown that you are not.
  • This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    I’m sure they’re quaking with fear. Chortle.
    Consistent answer from someone who is enthrall to them and bows in front of the altar of Brussels
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    edited September 2018

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    I’m sure they’re quaking with fear. Chortle.
    Big_G has shown today he is a class act. You have just shown that you are not.
    Big G is definitely a class act. But in this particular instance it is the class of Violet Elizabeth Bott. Stamping your feet and shouting f**k 'em may feel good (Big G would of course never do the latter) but it doesn't get us anywhere. Negotiations are negotiations (see - I'm getting the hang of this Brexit thing) and if they don't all go our way we need to keep negotiating.
  • Government borrowing rose by more than expected last month following subdued tax receipts and an increase in expenditure.

    Borrowing jumped to £6.75bn last month from £4.35bn a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

    It was the first year-on-year rise in borrowing in August for three years.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45598495
  • TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200
    Is he that desperate that he needs another £300.00 daily attendance fee?
  • philiph said:

    Is he that desperate that he needs another £300.00 daily attendance fee?
    No.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,200

    philiph said:

    Is he that desperate that he needs another £300.00 daily attendance fee?
    No.
    Is he going to tell TMay that she has got to make the EU agree something, regardless of their red lines?
  • It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this. I have my suspicions that particular demographics will react differently, and that the overall effect will be polarising rather than shifting many between Leave and Remain, but we shall see.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,013

    The whole negotiation has just been a complete disaster. We should surely have started from a position of either BINO/EEA/Vassal state (acceptable to the EU) or No Deal (the default) and then negotiated our way towards the middle: an EEA-type arrangement, or Hard Brexit but without the risk of grounded planes or food shortages.

    Instead we have wasted the last couple of years cobbling together an ill-thought out dogs breakfast that was never going to be acceptable to the EU, and now we have very little time left to negotiate a mitigated version of either of the two extremes.
    The negotiation has been lamentable, you are quite right about starting from a position that was actually achievable, personally I think starting from Hard Brexit/WTO position made the most sense from a risk point of view. It might also have focused minds.

    Repeatedly asking the EU if we can have our cake and eat it is not smart.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    Don't be angry at the EU. Be angry at the disingenuous lying politicians that inhabit the Conservative party.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    I'm saying the British character is a thousand things (we still seem to have a prison population, for example). And if it is fair play and decency why do you think those aren't characteristics of our European friends? It is a nonsensical comment, I'm sorry to say.

    I would also counsel against becoming too dogmatic in your Brexit aspirations. "TM deal or no deal" sounds a bit too emotive to me. I would give it a few days, realise the situation we are in, and then think again.
  • TOPPING said:




    Big G is definitely a class act. But in this particular instance it is the class of Violet Elizabeth Bott. Stamping your feet and shouting f**k 'em may feel good (Big G would of course never do the latter) but it doesn't get us anywhere. Negotiations are negotiations (see - I'm getting the hang of this Brexit thing) and if they don't all go our way we need to keep negotiating.
    I would never use language like that but equally I will not bow to threats or an ambush. I keep saying it is TM deal which I hope she achieves or we walk away. No third option as far as I am concerned
  • I think that shows the real fear - the EU don't want Singapore-on-Thames. I'm not sure we could do it, but it would be interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Because Twitter isn't enough of a platform for loudmouthed wankers....
  • I am working today at a trade show in Vienna. It would be good for those who think that the UK is an important market to come to one these shows. Yes there is a britsh presence but would the world notice if it wasn't there. Not really.

    Brexit is beginning to impact the real world in different ways. I was talking to an old friend who is a great product developer. He wanted to buy a company that mostly made in china and sold to the nhs. The banks pulled out at the last minute as they don't want exposure to the UK market. If brexit occurs the pound will fall further and selling to the UK will become even less profitable. There is a big avoid sign to any business exposed to British consumption.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    When it's 27 to 1 even Colonel Blimp would have to consider the possibility that they might have a point.
  • murali_s said:

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    Don't be angry at the EU. Be angry at the disingenuous lying politicians that inhabit the Conservative party.
    And in labour but my anger with the EU is the way they belittled our Prime Minister and it would be the same if it had been any other Prime Minister. I see no reason to roll over to them
  • Roger said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

    The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

    If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

    They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

    This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    When it's 27 to 1 even Colonel Blimp would have to consider the possibility that they might have a point.
    There is a way to behave and yesterday was the EU at their smug, childish best and really doubt that all 27 are very content with yesterdays performances
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,230

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    The British character is one of fair play and decency which is why the behaviour and false promises of Leave during the referendum should be accounted for.
  • I think that shows the real fear - the EU don't want Singapore-on-Thames. I'm not sure we could do it, but it would be interesting.
    Drop corporation tax to 10 - 12% would terrify them and Ireland.

  • JonathanD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    The British character is one of fair play and decency which is why the behaviour and false promises of Leave during the referendum should be accounted for.
    On that I do agree and remember I voted remain, but the remain side entered project fear which did not come about
  • I think that shows the real fear - the EU don't want Singapore-on-Thames. I'm not sure we could do it, but it would be interesting.
    Drop corporation tax to 10 - 12% would terrify them and Ireland.

    That's been my proposal all along. Walk away from the backstop talks until they're prepared to reach a technological solution as equals, in the meantime prepare Plan B which starts with corporation tax.
  • I think that shows the real fear - the EU don't want Singapore-on-Thames. I'm not sure we could do it, but it would be interesting.
    This feels very familiar from off-the-record briefings from individual states' press machinery, that have partly fed the government's dislocation and confusion we saw yesterday.

    There seems to be a pattern ; individual states' spokesmen throw a conciliatory bone from time to time, but when push comes to shove, at the defining meetings punctuating the year, the common line reasserts itself, leaving Britain out in the cold. This may because these signals are intended as a message that if Britain makes similar concessions on Ireland and FoM, there can be a way to avert what is obviously mutual damage.

    And then the same problem reasserts itself all over again ; the fragile balancing act that Theresa May is holding up of the Tory party, between sovereigntists and the pragmatists, makes it impossible for her make to similar reciprocal tidbits gestures, to keep the atmosphere of the talks positive and friendly.

    Meanwhile, May's government nevertheless takes the tone of these signals to mean she had more room for manoeuvre than she thought, leading to examples like yesterday's humiliation.

    It all adds up to a wearying repetition of events, which is running out of road.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,913

    murali_s said:

    TOPPING said:

    This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

    The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

    Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

    I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

    [RAGING AGAINST THE MOON SNIPPED]

    They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

    V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

    So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

    This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

    I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.
    So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

    It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many
    Don't be angry at the EU. Be angry at the disingenuous lying politicians that inhabit the Conservative party.
    And in labour but my anger with the EU is the way they belittled our Prime Minister and it would be the same if it had been any other Prime Minister. I see no reason to roll over to them
    How did they belittle her? They disagreed with her in public on a point of substance. That's a failure of diplomacy.
This discussion has been closed.