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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should Labour offer a ‘people’s vote’?
As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour’s interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next.
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https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1043077012657725441
So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.
Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.
If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.
When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.
Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?
When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.
It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.
Not a big ask then.
She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.
They're more interested in saying 'we were right, you were wrong' than winning a second vote.
We are up sh*t creek and the best that you and the like minded fools you quote from is to blame dirty foreigners for the parlous state of this country.
FFS I give up with people like you!
The British body politic is starting to realise, as a whole, that actions have consequences. This, they've decided, is just Not Cricket and completely unfair.
Has anyone seen Big G???
If on the other hand a BINO transition period is agreed it makes much less sense
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1043048147327574016
Pity not enough self-identified as 'evil'.....
Is that weird?
JRM - Gove - Farage
I get the impression from your comments that you see May as a fundamentally decent person doing her best in impossibly difficult circumstances. And as beset on all sides by enemies as she is, you feel a chivalrous protectiveness towards her. That's admirable, but I think it might be warping your perspective.
See this, from retiring NEC member Ann Black:
"The Times We Live In
But underlying the whole open/mandatory reselection argument is the fact that a significant number of members hate Labour MPs, individually and collectively , especially for trying to get rid of Jeremy in 2016, and would be happy to purge the lot of them. Just one of the Momentum mails, sadly not untypical, from member Sue Hyett (she is happy to be named) is headed Back Stabbing Fat Cats and says:
“There is no home in Labour for these incumbents we need reselection not jobs that allow you to stick your nose in the trough for the rest of your working career.”
The party constitution says, in Clause I, that :
“its purpose is to organise and maintain in Parliament and in the country a political Labour Party”
and it is increasingly difficult to do both.
And finally a comment in support of an applicant for membership:
“Saying that your MP is a wanker and being generally critical of him in front of other party members may be disrespectful, but if everyone who insulted each other thus were to be asked to leave the party, there would be no-one left.”
This is not the kinder, gentler politics which Jeremy promised in 2015. The next report, after conference, will be my last as a member of the NEC, and it is now for others to find a way back from the edge."
(my boldings)
https://www.annblack.co.uk/reports_of_meetings/nec-meeting-18-september-2018/
If she does have to abandon Chequers or something that can be spun as at least Chequers minus, surely she has to have someone else do the next move whatever it is. Having hung her hat on Chequers and lost two senior ministers ( yes I know, but if it is sunk totally, they’ve been proved right, even if possibly for a different set of reasons to the ones they were thinking), surely she cannot be the one who says “ok it’s now plan B”.
As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.
The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.
Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.
We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".
None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.
It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.
(showing my age)
Who's you 'Evil Chaotic' - Adonis?
You know what they say, never get high on your own supply. That applies to Brexiteer bullshit as well as hard drugs.
*) They have a wizard idea for something that will be brilliant (in their minds).
*) They don't listen to anyone who tells them it is impossible.
*) They get a load of senile old men to believe and invest in it.
*) They use lots of PR and press to say how brilliant it is.
*) They get a few people working on it, but mainly just bask in how awesome they are.
*) They don't develop the thing and it all goes to pot.
*) They screech "It's all someone else's fault !!!"
We still have to see if either Theranos or Brexit will end up in any jail time ...
The clock is ticking, thanks to May's original sin of starting A50 without any planning.
As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform
In truth I think she's just useless.
🤔
We imposed the maximum possible transition controls on Romania, did that stop a surge in Romanian migrants? No of course it didn't. We now have more Romanians in this country than either Irish or Indians.
Transition controls are not the answer.
"to encourage the others" and all that
Resignation? - maybe
Nuclear strike on Brussels for dissing her? - nailed on
Think she's calling it a day? I would not blame her one bit.
Nothing has changed.
No Deal
Resigning
GE
2nd Ref
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZCTystM-s0