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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corb

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    first?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Fuck me, they are awful numbers for Corbyn. Any other universe and he would be getting his marching orders.... He's a very lucky guy to be living in this one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited September 2018
    FPT:
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

    The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

    Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

    We've gone there puffed up by our own a bad deal" once again.

    Of course if Blair had imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as he could have done the immigration problem would have been much less of an issue.

    As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform
    Even if Blair had imposed a transition period that would have done nothing other than delay the inevitable. Free movement would still be there. The issues would still be there.

    We imposed the maximum possible transition controls on Romania, did that stop a surge in Romanian migrants? No of course it didn't. We now have more Romanians in this country than either Irish or Indians.

    Transition controls are not the answer.
    The lack of transition controls meant the largest number of the Eastern European migrants from Poland, Hungary etc flooded here rather than the rest of the EU for 7 years, after 7 years they were spread more evenly
    The UK is an attractive country transition controls or no transition controls. Especially given our native language is a common second language now across the globe.

    We imposed the transition controls on Romania. Didn't change migration one jot.
    We did not get 100s of thousands of new Eastern Europeans coming from the 2007 accession nations as we did from those coming in 2004
    Net migration from the EU2 in the five years to March 2018: 220,000.

    Edited for more recent figures.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    38% don’t even have a view on Vince ( and a significant number of those expressing it probably thought he was another failure in England’s top order). The Lib Dem’s are truly playing with death.
  • Yep, Corbyn remains the Tories’ get out of jail free card.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yeah, you see that waffling, vacuous nonsense is what I think most people expected yesterday (treating Chequers as a step in the right direction, while still need a lot of work), which in a sense it is good we have been spared - if the EU won't accept our red lines, and won't compromise on theirs, it was good they did so in a tough fashion (even in his statement he seems to blame that on May being 'uncompromising', one of those words that only ever applies as a criticism to an opponent I notice) rather than that statement, which though not rude is still to say that the UK's plan is bollocks. A weaker statement would have given CHequers more hope, even though it stil lwon't be accepted

    Fuck me, they are awful numbers for Corbyn. Any other universe and he would be getting his marching orders.... He's a very lucky guy to be living in this one.

    While I think people are complacent to assume that next GE he is guaranteed to have the same effect and same lack of concern about poor ratings going into it, it is still the case that he has survived and thrived despite terrible numbers before.
  • But both are dire.....let’s see if Salzburg affects May one way or the other. Tusk’s statement posted by Mr Glenn on the previous thread does appear to be seeking to dedramatise things.

    I wonder if May’s mistake was to take her UK message “my deal or no deal” ( fair enough for a domestic audience as there isn’t an alternative deal from the U.K. ) and repeat it to the EU- which is foolish as it’s “her deal subject to negotiation with the EU” - which would explain the EU feedback of intransigence. Time will tell.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited September 2018
    Is there any precedent of a government being -50 odd in dissatisfaction, but still being ahead of the opposition?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Artist said:

    Is there any precedent of a government being -50 odd in dissatisfaction, but still being ahead of the opposition?

    You’d like to think not. We have some pretty shite governments and some even worse oppositions but this is surely special.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Artist said:

    Is there any precedent of a government being -50 odd in dissatisfaction, but still being ahead of the opposition?

    There's only one thing the Govt. is dealing with - Brexit. The 48% who voted Remain hate that they are going ahead with it. The 52% Brexiteers hate the way they are going ahead with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, yes Labour should offer a second referendum. They can fudge on what exactly it will be on, and they may not even need to deliver depending on if the Tories collapse, precipitating a GE, or capitulate to the EU.

    Labour's silence in all of this is quite frankly shocking. Sadly Labour has a leader, though a congenial man, is clearly not cut out to lead. His lack of intelligence and lack of political instinct is always going to hold him and Labour back.
    It tactically makes plenty of sense, hence his 'masterly inactivity' being praised by some because, supposedly, most Labour members just don't care about the matter as much. I can recognise on a pure tactical sense that is perhaps a sound move, but as you say it is not even attempting to lead on what is one of the most important issues of our time. Wait and see and fudge it might work, but it isn't admirable.

    As Guy Verhofstadt once said

    Most of the political leaders [in continental Europe] are simply following nationalist and populist rhetoric, and that is for me not a democracy. A democracy, in my opinion, is a political leader developing a vision and then trying to convince the public opinion to follow his vision, and not what is happening now.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    kle4 said:

    It tactically makes plenty of sense, hence his 'masterly inactivity' being praised by some because, supposedly, most Labour members just don't care about the matter as much. I can recognise on a pure tactical sense that is perhaps a sound move, but as you say it is not even attempting to lead on what is one of the most important issues of our time. Wait and see and fudge it might work, but it isn't admirable.

    He really is Chance the Gardener.

    "I like to watch...."

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, yes Labour should offer a second referendum. They can fudge on what exactly it will be on, and they may not even need to deliver depending on if the Tories collapse, precipitating a GE, or capitulate to the EU.

    Labour's silence in all of this is quite frankly shocking. Sadly Labour has a leader, though a congenial man, is clearly not cut out to lead. His lack of intelligence and lack of political instinct is always going to hold him and Labour back.
    It tactically makes plenty of sense, hence his 'masterly inactivity' being praised by some because, supposedly, most Labour members just don't care about the matter as much. I can recognise on a pure tactical sense that is perhaps a sound move, but as you say it is not even attempting to lead on what is one of the most important issues of our time. Wait and see and fudge it might work, but it isn't admirable.

    As Guy Verhofstadt once said

    Most of the political leaders [in continental Europe] are simply following nationalist and populist rhetoric, and that is for me not a democracy. A democracy, in my opinion, is a political leader developing a vision and then trying to convince the public opinion to follow his vision, and not what is happening now.

    What's the phrase... Never interrupt your enemy when the are making a mistake...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    But both are dire.....let’s see if Salzburg affects May one way or the other. Tusk’s statement posted by Mr Glenn on the previous thread does appear to be seeking to dedramatise things.

    I disagree - and their supposesly being affronted by her rebuffing their attempt to 'dedramatise' things on Ireland is not helpful either, since what needs to happen is a resolution, not the sides coming up with inventive ways to put off the decision or claim some things might just be possible but not really, as his statement does.

    The EU cannot have it both ways on this - either they rejected the proposals as fundamentally flawed for principled reasons, which mean that tweaking the agreement will not work and fair on them for being very very clear on that, or the proposals were broadly ok and with a bit more work on the big two issues we can get there. The two positions are contradictory. It wouldn't be de dramatising it, it would be pretending for a few more days or weeks that what May offered might be broadly acceptable, when they've already said it isn't, and she has been just as clear what they offered, particularly on Ireland, is not acceptable.

    Saying no and putting a ticking clock on different options was positive of them, if stronger in tone that was expected. It means we can stop pretending and try something different, rather than try to salvage the unsalvagable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, yes Labour should offer a second referendum. They can fudge on what exactly it will be on, and they may not even need to deliver depending on if the Tories collapse, precipitating a GE, or capitulate to the EU.

    Labour's silence in all of this is quite frankly shocking. Sadly Labour has a leader, though a congenial man, is clearly not cut out to lead. His lack of intelligence and lack of political instinct is always going to hold him and Labour back.
    It tactically makes plenty of sense, hence his 'masterly inactivity' being praised by some because, supposedly, most Labour members just don't care about the matter as much. I can recognise on a pure tactical sense that is perhaps a sound move, but as you say it is not even attempting to lead on what is one of the most important issues of our time. Wait and see and fudge it might work, but it isn't admirable.

    As Guy Verhofstadt once said

    Most of the political leaders [in continental Europe] are simply following nationalist and populist rhetoric, and that is for me not a democracy. A democracy, in my opinion, is a political leader developing a vision and then trying to convince the public opinion to follow his vision, and not what is happening now.

    What's the phrase... Never interrupt your enemy when the are making a mistake...
    That's why I said it makes tactical sense and has been praised - it is politically a sound move - but it is not in the least bit principled, supposedly Corbyn's hallmark. Yet 'Labour don't care as much about this major issue, so will just fudge it and wait for the Tories to cock up' gets praised by some of the people who supposedly like his principles.
  • DavidL said:

    Artist said:

    Is there any precedent of a government being -50 odd in dissatisfaction, but still being ahead of the opposition?

    You’d like to think not. We have some pretty shite governments and some even worse oppositions but this is surely special.

    Special is one way of putting it, I suppose!!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

    The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

    Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

    We've gone there puffed up by our own a bad deal" once again.

    Of course if Blair had imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as he could have done the immigration problem would have been much less of an issue.

    As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform
    Even if Blair had imposed a transition period that would have done nothing other than delay the inevitable. Free movement would still be there. The issues would still be there.

    We imposed the maximum possible transition controls on Romania, did that stop a surge in Romanian migrants? No of course it didn't. We now have more Romanians in this country than either Irish or Indians.

    Transition controls are not the answer.
    The lack of transition controls meant the largest number of the Eastern European migrants from Poland, Hungary etc flooded here rather than the rest of the EU for 7 years, after 7 years they were spread more evenly
    The UK is an attractive country transition controls or no transition controls. Especially given our native language is a common second language now across the globe.

    We imposed the transition controls on Romania. Didn't change migration one jot.
    We did not get 100s of thousands of new Eastern Europeans coming from the 2007 accession nations as we did from those coming in 2004
    Net migration from the EU2 in the five years to March 2018: 220,000.

    Edited for more recent figures.
    Net migration from the EU8 from 2004 to 2018 almost a million

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics/#create-graph
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Shows whatever problems the Tories have Corbyn remains a key negative for many swing voters
  • Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.
  • I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/21/peoples-vote-brexit-remain-theresa-may-salzburg-statement

    "We are, then, approaching that point every negotiator most fears: when one side’s maximum falls irretrievably short of the other’s minimum."

    Probably the sentence that sums up the situation best. Excellent article.
  • I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    I think it goes back a long way before Salzburg. I do not think they have been negotiating in good faith for a long time. There has been no real effort on the part of Barnier and his team to present alternatives or suggestions. It has been one way traffic with a lot of 'No' coming from the EU team.

    It has long been my view that we should have insisted on an independent chair of the negotiations - someone who can bash heads together and force both sides to act constructively.

    And I say this as someone who did vote for Remain. But having seen the way the EU has comported itself, I would almost certainly never vote to return.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    That Instagram thing for international relations is as bad as anything Trump has done. He utterly humiliated her and set it up to do so. Conflicts have began for less slights.
  • Fuck me, they are awful numbers for Corbyn. Any other universe and he would be getting his marching orders.... He's a very lucky guy to be living in this one.

    It shows again that twitter != real world. If all you did was listen to tw@tter / faceache you would be convinced that Jezza was as popular as free beer.

    The reality is the "none of the above" candidate is rather popular.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    HYUFD said:

    Shows whatever problems the Tories have Corbyn remains a key negative for many swing voters

    Labour should be 20 points clear (at least).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    I think it goes back a long way before Salzburg. I do not think they have been negotiating in good faith for a long time. There has been no real effort on the part of Barnier and his team to present alternatives or suggestions. It has been one way traffic with a lot of 'No' coming from the EU team.

    It has long been my view that we should have insisted on an independent chair of the negotiations - someone who can bash heads together and force both sides to act constructively.

    And I say this as someone who did vote for Remain. But having seen the way the EU has comported itself, I would almost certainly never vote to return.
    We're leaving. Why on earth should it be up to them to present alternatives, or in fact do anything but negotiate in their own best interests?
  • Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/21/peoples-vote-brexit-remain-theresa-may-salzburg-statement

    "We are, then, approaching that point every negotiator most fears: when one side’s maximum falls irretrievably short of the other’s minimum."

    Probably the sentence that sums up the situation best. Excellent article.

    Sounds about right, sadly. While I don't like the EU being so inflexible (I think they have more wiggle room than they say, since others will still see we are worse off after Brexit) and certainly don't agree that they do not care what happens (because I do not think they are idiots, I do understand if they are prepared to take the hit of no deal rather than make certain concessions. I also get how politically we really may not be able to make more concessions either, even if May tries, and therefore end up falling into no deal and taking that hit as well, but worse.

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    I find his statement more insulting that the words yesterday, which I am sanguine about, just as I am our inevitable media reaction to them. His statement just seems like bullshit, treating people like idiots in seeking to massage through careful wording that what everyone thought happened did not, it was not a slap down it was a difficult conversation but still with many positives, and patently is done as previously suggested to de-dramatise things. Well the thing there is while we have much to blame for in how things have developed, they made a positive decision to dramatise it in the manner they did yesterday. Indeed, it was a deliberate strategy with Macron playing the baddest of the cops, as it were. To try to de-dramatise it a day later just comes across as pathetic, and I am surprised as Tusk, like what he says or not, has always seems pretty sensible to me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    O/T

    "Furious animal lovers accuse Croydon cat killer police of trying to tarnish the reputation of foxes"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/croydon-cat-killer-foxes-police-backlash-animal-lovers-snarl-hunting-rspca-ripper-denial-boudicca-a8549286.html
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
    What should the democrats have done differently?
  • I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    I think it goes back a long way before Salzburg. I do not think they have been negotiating in good faith for a long time. There has been no real effort on the part of Barnier and his team to present alternatives or suggestions. It has been one way traffic with a lot of 'No' coming from the EU team.

    It has long been my view that we should have insisted on an independent chair of the negotiations - someone who can bash heads together and force both sides to act constructively.

    And I say this as someone who did vote for Remain. But having seen the way the EU has comported itself, I would almost certainly never vote to return.
    We're leaving. Why on earth should it be up to them to present alternatives, or in fact do anything but negotiate in their own best interests?
    Because negotiating is about a lot more than just saying no over and over again. A no deal exit has serious consequences for the EU as well as us. It requires movement on both sides to achieve something.

    For good or ill, TM has shown a willingness to be flexible. But eventually you will reach a snapping point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2018

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    I think it goes back a long way before Salzburg. I do not think they have been negotiating in good faith for a long time. There has been no real effort on the part of Barnier and his team to present alternatives or suggestions. It has been one way traffic with a lot of 'No' coming from the EU team.

    It has long been my view that we should have insisted on an indepeturn.
    We're leaving. Why on earth should it be up to them to present alternatives, or in fact do anything but negotiate in their own best interests?
    I accept that, however no deal is not in their best interests either - they acknowledge that, which is why they want a deal. We have at least made some concessions, but we also need something acceptable, and if they want a deal they need to concede something. If the concessions we require are too much then fine, we are all set for no deal, but while it is up to us to come up with options, since it is in their interests to get a deal it might be worth them considering some options as well. Their best interests involve a deal, they have said as much.

    Indeed, they have come up with options in some places, Ireland for example, so by your words above you should be criticising the EU because they did present us an alternative.

    It's another of those bizarre situations where people act like the EU making a concession would be doing us a favour and it is not up to them to do us favours - not automatically it would be a favour. There are concessions that would not be worth the cost, clearly, that is what is being argued over, but 'giving' us something in exchange for a deal is not a favour it is mutually beneficial, and so nor would suggesting other options be doing us a favour. They have in fact offered us some options, which so far we have rejected (we shall see in future), so once again you must be fuming at the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Personally I'd have given in to the EU a long time ago; I'd make a terrible negotiator.
  • Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
    What should the democrats have done differently?
    Not sat on the allegations for 2 months before dropping them into the confirmation process at the very last minute for a start. It is a clear attempt to delay the process until after the midterms where they hope to be able to block the nomination completely.

    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
    What should the democrats have done differently?
    Not sat on the allegations for 2 months before dropping them into the confirmation process at the very last minute for a start. It is a clear attempt to delay the process until after the midterms where they hope to be able to block the nomination completely.

    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
    Sometimes it seems american politics only exist to make ours look less dysfunctional. Who do they look down on to do the same?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    edited September 2018
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
    What should the democrats have done differently?
    Not sat on the allegations for 2 months before dropping them into the confirmation process at the very last minute for a start. It is a clear attempt to delay the process until after the midterms where they hope to be able to block the nomination completely.

    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
    Sometimes it seems american politics only exist to make ours look less dysfunctional. Who do they look down on to do the same?
    The lawyer for the victim seems to have very little understanding of due process given the demands that she has made

    - Prof Ford will not testify if Judge Kavanaugh is in the room

    - Judge Kavanaugh must testify first

    - There can be no appearance before next Thursday

    - Questions to be posed preferably by senators and not outside counsel

    - Mark Judge, who is reported to have been a witness to the alleged assault, should be subpoenaed to appear

    - Agrees to a public hearing but wants limits on the media coverage

    In no way is justice served by requiring the accused to answer first and to have no chance of rebuttal. In no way is justice served by having a public hearing but then attempting to limit how the media can report it (given how much is already out in the public domain)

    A Senate confirmation committee hearing is not the place to carry out a quasi-judicial process. If charges were eventually brought and a trial attempted, it would be completely undermined by this sort of hearing.

    Inevitably with historical cases like this, evidence will be nigh on impossible to collect and so achieving justice for an alleged assault similarly nigh on impossible to achieve.

    But what is going on now is a mockery of legal process and it is despicable.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    The only reason its unlicensed is that Novartis has to request and pay for it to be licensed but makes more money from their other solution...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    It is an interesting story, and according to NICE Avastin is just as safe, but the case does raise questions about pre release testing. Avastin bypassed all these, why can not other drugs do the same?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    Utter bollocks weasel words

    He did what he did deliberately and got caught out by the reaction
  • DavidL said:

    38% don’t even have a view on Vince ( and a significant number of those expressing it probably thought he was another failure in England’s top order). The Lib Dem’s are truly playing with death.

    Vince Clarke was great in Yazoo.
  • Floater said:

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    Utter bollocks weasel words

    He did what he did deliberately and got caught out by the reaction
    He’s an absolute tosser.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    The only reason its unlicensed is that Novartis has to request and pay for it to be licensed but makes more money from their other solution...
    Avastin is made by Roche, not Novartis.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Personally I'd have given in to the EU a long time ago; I'd make a terrible negotiator.

    It seems to me , May is the same.

    It is like leaving your job and asking to keep the company car.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Floater said:

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    Utter bollocks weasel words

    He did what he did deliberately and got caught out by the reaction
    It would appear that somewhere in the Brexit process the British have lost their sense of humour and passed it on to the EU.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Fuck me, they are awful numbers for Corbyn. Any other universe and he would be getting his marching orders.... He's a very lucky guy to be living in this one.

    Whatever one thinks about Theresa May, she is having to make decisions that a lot of people will not like.

    Whereas Jezbollah just gets to snipe from the sidelines whilst not being constrained by political realities.

    For him to be viewed worse than May in those circumstances takes a special sort of crapness.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    In SCOTUS news yesterday 4 seperate Republicans posited the notion that maybe Kavanaugh's accuser was the victim of an attempted rape but she got the identity of the attacker wrong.

    Ed Whelan going as far as to name the 'real' attacker.


    Absolutely barmy.

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.
    What should the democrats have done differently?
    Not sat on the allegations for 2 months before dropping them into the confirmation process at the very last minute for a start. It is a clear attempt to delay the process until after the midterms where they hope to be able to block the nomination completely.

    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
    Sometimes it seems american politics only exist to make ours look less dysfunctional. Who do they look down on to do the same?
    The lawyer for the victim seems to have very little understanding of due process given the demands that she has made

    - Prof Ford will not testify if Judge Kavanaugh is in the room

    - Judge Kavanaugh must testify first

    - There can be no appearance before next Thursday

    - Questions to be posed preferably by senators and not outside counsel

    - Mark Judge, who is reported to have been a witness to the alleged assault, should be subpoenaed to appear

    - Agrees to a public hearing but wants limits on the media coverage

    In no way is justice served by requiring the accused to answer first and to have no chance of rebuttal. In no way is justice served by having a public hearing but then attempting to limit how the media can report it (given how much is already out in the public domain)

    A Senate confirmation committee hearing is not the place to carry out a quasi-judicial process. If charges were eventually brought and a trial attempted, it would be completely undermined by this sort of hearing.

    Inevitably with historical cases like this, evidence will be nigh on impossible to collect and so achieving justice for an alleged assault similarly nigh on impossible to achieve.

    But what is going on now is a mockery of legal process and it is despicable.
    What she wants is the FBI to reopen its background check but the Whitehouse won't agree.
  • Very interesting thread which is ominous for May.
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205358372761601?s=21
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Good stuff from May today. I now feel like she could be the PM for no deal.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Good stuff from May today. I now feel like she could be the PM for no deal.

    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205760442871808?s=21
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyone is humiliating anyone, it's us humiliating ourselves. The EU position is and always has been clear. We should stop the silly Oxbridge semantics and make up our minds to stay and accept the rules or just piss off. I'm afraid what Salzburg symbolises is that the rest of the EU is just bored with this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Personally I'd have given in to the EU a long time ago; I'd make a terrible negotiator.

    It seems to me , May is the same.

    It is like leaving your job and asking to keep the company car.
    Not really. Clearly there things that they might accept post brexit and those they won't; if as a result a particular outcome were fixed there would be no point negotiating at all. We need to establish what they will and won't accept. We have not been successful in talking them down on some key points, but it was not inherently unreasonable to test them on that, just as they are demanding to keep a part of our country in their rules even after we have left.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    It is an interesting story, and according to NICE Avastin is just as safe, but the case does raise questions about pre release testing. Avastin bypassed all these, why can not other drugs do the same?
    Because it’s used in other indications with higher blood concentrations in the PK data
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    Very interesting thread which is ominous for May.
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205358372761601?s=21

    Yes, the speech today was the inevitable response to yesterday's events. Backed up by the anti-European jingoistic elements in the media, May has come out with the predictable "the Europeans were nasty to me" line.

    I understand the politics of it and no doubt the Prime Minister will get a short-term considerable boost from all this as being "tough" with Europe always plays well.

    I'm still convinced there will be a deal of sorts knocked together three or four minutes after the last possible minute. It won't satisfy anyone on either side (these things rarely do) but we will be so anxious to avoid the cliff edge that "No Deal" seems to be that we will sign up to almost anything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RoyalBlue said:

    Good stuff from May today. I now feel like she could be the PM for no deal.

    I really don't see how. Nice speech though it was she has publicly rubbished even harder deal plans, let alone no deal, and her speech isn't a plan to move forward in any concrete way. She has to go, and I say that regretfully as I do think she has at least tried to work out a compromise, so that other options can actually be attempted.

    I am guessing two possibilities - we make some tough talk, then attempt to sell a climb down in position as actually not a climbdown somehow, relying on the goodwill of talking tough to sees us through. Or we do tack harder, see if that has the numbers in the Commons, and if that fails all options become open (since they son't until harder brexit is tried).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyone is humiliating anyone, it's us humiliating ourselves. The EU position is and always has been clear. We should stop the silly Oxbridge semantics and make up our minds to stay and accept the rules or just piss off. I'm afraid what Salzburg symbolises is that the rest of the EU is just bored with this.
    Yes, or to quote Tusk from October 2016, "There is only Hard Brexit or No Brexit", and even though that has been repeated endlessly, it seems that only yesterday did Mrs May listen for the first time.

    She has spent the last two years in a fantasy world, building castles in the air. Reality was always going to be a shock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    stodge said:

    Very interesting thread which is ominous for May.
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205358372761601?s=21

    Yes, the speech today was the inevitable response to yesterday's events. Backed up by the anti-European jingoistic elements in the media, May has come out with the predictable "the Europeans were nasty to me" line.

    I understand the politics of it and no doubt the Prime Minister will get a short-term considerable boost from all this as being "tough" with Europe always plays well.

    I'm still convinced there will be a deal of sorts knocked together three or four minutes after the last possible minute. It won't satisfy anyone on either side (these things rarely do) but we will be so anxious to avoid the cliff edge that "No Deal" seems to be that we will sign up to almost anything.
    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.
  • Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.

    What should the democrats have done differently?
    Not sat on the allegations for 2 months before dropping them into the confirmation process at the very last minute for a start. It is a clear attempt to delay the process until after the midterms where they hope to be able to block the nomination completely.

    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
    Sometimes it seems american politics only exist to make ours look less dysfunctional. Who do they look down on to do the same?
    The lawyer for the victim seems to have very little understanding of due process given the demands that she has made

    - Prof Ford will not testify if Judge Kavanaugh is in the room

    - Judge Kavanaugh must testify first

    - There can be no appearance before next Thursday

    - Questions to be posed preferably by senators and not outside counsel

    - Mark Judge, who is reported to have been a witness to the alleged assault, should be subpoenaed to appear

    - Agrees to a public hearing but wants limits on the media coverage

    In no way is justice served by requiring the accused to answer first and to have no chance of rebuttal. In no way is justice served by having a public hearing but then attempting to limit how the media can report it (given how much is already out in the public domain)

    A Senate confirmation committee hearing is not the place to carry out a quasi-judicial process. If charges were eventually brought and a trial attempted, it would be completely undermined by this sort of hearing.

    Inevitably with historical cases like this, evidence will be nigh on impossible to collect and so achieving justice for an alleged assault similarly nigh on impossible to achieve.

    But what is going on now is a mockery of legal process and it is despicable.
    What she wants is the FBI to reopen its background check but the Whitehouse won't agree.
    The FBI is not there to do the White House's bidding - no matter what some people might think.

    If the FBI were presented with a case, they would judge it as to whether it falls within their remit to investigate and proceed accordingly.

    As far as I am aware, that has not yet happened.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    It is an interesting story, and according to NICE Avastin is just as safe, but the case does raise questions about pre release testing. Avastin bypassed all these, why can not other drugs do the same?
    Because it’s used in other indications with higher blood concentrations in the PK data
    Avastin has entered widespread use in ophthalmology without phase 1, 2 or 3 trials, and now has government approval. Probably a good thing, but it does run a coach and horses through pharma regulation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyone is humiliating anyone, it's us humiliating ourselves. The EU position is and always has been clear. We should stop the silly Oxbridge semantics and make up our minds to stay and accept the rules or just piss off. I'm afraid what Salzburg symbolises is that the rest of the EU is just bored with this.
    Yes, or to quote Tusk from October 2016, "There is only Hard Brexit or No Brexit", and even though that has been repeated endlessly, it seems that only yesterday did Mrs May listen for the first time.

    She has spent the last two years in a fantasy world, building castles in the air. Reality was always going to be a shock.
    So why is Tusk's statement and leaked comments seeking to make it look like May's specific uncompromising or harsh approach led to their statement yesterday? Either it was a principled and inevitable outcome or it wasn't, and if they are blaming May's personal approach it undermines the argument it was pure principle. I happen to think it was principle, but Tusk's new statement which is far more equivocal on Chequers (more in the expected 'fundamental issues but there are positive aspects, move in the right direction' approach) which again undermines what was a harsh but principled rejection.
  • Incidentally, has everyone seen the reports that May literally read out her newspaper article to the other leaders?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks) wanted to damage May-who herself may have misjudged things at the end of a dinner after a long tiring day - and will have been taken aback at how their cozy chat in Salzburg was presented in the U.K. They are not unaware of the risks of a hostile resentful U.K. on their western border with Putin’s kleptocracy on their eastern border - and apart from some idealogues in Brussels want things sorted out with as little fuss as possible and to remain on good terms afterwards. Salzburg hasn’t helped that.
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyone is humiliating anyone, it's us humiliating ourselves. The EU position is and always has been clear. We should stop the silly Oxbridge semantics and make up our minds to stay and accept the rules or just piss off. I'm afraid what Salzburg symbolises is that the rest of the EU is just bored with this.
    The issue is that they have refused to engage constructively on the Irish border question. A technological solution might have been possible - it might not have been. But without a working party to examine it it isn’t going to happen.

    Instead I think they genuinely believed they could force the Brits into cancelling Brexit (encouraged by some politicians and media folk in the UK). I don’t believe that it’s going to happen

    As s result of intransigence and stupidity on the EU’s side there’s a real risk of a bad outcome for everyone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Floater said:

    Tusk: "While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. I say these words as a close friend of the UK and a true admirer of PM May."

    Such an admirer he insulted her with a puerile Instagram stunt.

    Utter bollocks weasel words

    He did what he did deliberately and got caught out by the reaction
    It is a bit rich to dramatise things deliberately and then seek to de-dramatise them the next day, all while others whinge about a media reaction to that deliberate dramatisation. The EU wanted the media reaction, or else they'd have said something like Tusk has done today. Yes, we can all be cynical and mock May and co for indulging in some traditional euro bashing as a comfort over this, but clearly they went in for some May bashing (which it clearly was, since the tone of the statement today is still clear Chequers as is won't work, without being 'dramatic' about it) to play games as well. It would be hypocritical to act like they have not dramatised things or played games just as we do.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    The whole thing is an absolute mess. Democrats have been exploiting that woman for political ends. And she has faced unacceptable threats as a result of the publicity. Trump's contribution today was really unwarranted.

    It is not at all fair to either Kavanaugh or his accuser.

    The whole thing is a damning indictment of American politics as a whole.

    What should the democrats have done differently?


    It is very little to do with securing justice for a sexual assault and everything to do with US national politics. I find it very distasteful on both sides.
    Sometimes it seems american politics only exist to make ours look less dysfunctional. Who do they look down on to do the same?
    The lawyer for the victim seems to have very little understanding of due process given the demands that she has made

    - Prof Ford will not testify if Judge Kavanaugh is in the room

    - Judge Kavanaugh must testify first

    - There can be no appearance before next Thursday

    - Questions to be posed preferably by senators and not outside counsel

    - Mark Judge, who is reported to have been a witness to the alleged assault, should be subpoenaed to appear

    - Agrees to a public hearing but wants limits on the media coverage

    In no way is justice served by requiring the accused to answer first and to have no chance of rebuttal. In no way is justice served by having a public hearing but then attempting to limit how the media can report it (given how much is already out in the public domain)

    A Senate confirmation committee hearing is not the place to carry out a quasi-judicial process. If charges were eventually brought and a trial attempted, it would be completely undermined by this sort of hearing.

    Inevitably with historical cases like this, evidence will be nigh on impossible to collect and so achieving justice for an alleged assault similarly nigh on impossible to achieve.

    But what is going on now is a mockery of legal process and it is despicable.
    What she wants is the FBI to reopen its background check but the Whitehouse won't agree.
    The FBI is not there to do the White House's bidding - no matter what some people might think.

    If the FBI were presented with a case, they would judge it as to whether it falls within their remit to investigate and proceed accordingly.

    As far as I am aware, that has not yet happened.
    Is it the same for a background check though?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2018

    Incidentally, has everyone seen the reports that May literally read out her newspaper article to the other leaders?

    So what? If the EU's rejection was based on the principles of the plan being fundamentally unacceptable then her presenting her plan badly is irrelevant as a firm reaction was inevitable. So were they principled or not?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyone is humiliating anyone, it's us humiliating ourselves. The EU position is and always has been clear. We should stop the silly Oxbridge semantics and make up our minds to stay and accept the rules or just piss off. I'm afraid what Salzburg symbolises is that the rest of the EU is just bored with this.
    Yes, or to quote Tusk from October 2016, "There is only Hard Brexit or No Brexit", and even though that has been repeated endlessly, it seems that only yesterday did Mrs May listen for the first time.

    She has spent the last two years in a fantasy world, building castles in the air. Reality was always going to be a shock.
    So why is Tusk's statement and leaked comments seeking to make it look like May's specific uncompromising or harsh approach led to their statement yesterday? Either it was a principled and inevitable outcome or it wasn't, and if they are blaming May's personal approach it undermines the argument it was pure principle. I happen to think it was principle, but Tusk's new statement which is far more equivocal on Chequers (more in the expected 'fundamental issues but there are positive aspects, move in the right direction' approach) which again undermines what was a harsh but principled rejection.
    I think Tusk was just being polite. There are elements in Chequers quite similar to Norway. If the whole package became Norway then it would be viable.

    It was all summarised into 1 powerpoint slide in a very elegant precis. The higher steps are still there, but it is May's redlines that prevent ascending that far up the steps:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer-graphic-brexit-theresa-mays-red-lines-on-bespoke-model_uk_5a39497ce4b0fc99878f2058
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    The FBI is not there to do the White House's bidding - no matter what some people might think.

    If the FBI were presented with a case, they would judge it as to whether it falls within their remit to investigate and proceed accordingly.

    As far as I am aware, that has not yet happened.

    Errr no. The FBI do background checks on Supreme Court nominees at the behest of the Whitehouse. This is standard practice.

    They had previously done one for Kavanaugh, at the request of the Whitehouse, and Ford would like it reopened.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    It is an interesting story, and according to NICE Avastin is just as safe, but the case does raise questions about pre release testing. Avastin bypassed all these, why can not other drugs do the same?
    Because it’s used in other indications with higher blood concentrations in the PK data
    Avastin has entered widespread use in ophthalmology without phase 1, 2 or 3 trials, and now has government approval. Probably a good thing, but it does run a coach and horses through pharma regulation.
    Yes. But offlabel prescription has always happened - it’s just marketing that isn’t allowed. I’m surprised at NICE but I’m guessing they draw comfort from the safety database.

    But Javid is about to ride a coach and horse through pharma regulation
  • kle4 said:

    Incidentally, has everyone seen the reports that May literally read out her newspaper article to the other leaders?

    So what? If the EU's rejection was based on the principles of the plan being fundamentally unacceptable then her presenting her plan badly is irrelevant as a firm reaction was inevitable. So were they principled or not?
    I’m not making a point about that, but it just seems like odd behaviour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don’t think most of the EU leaders (with the possible exception of Macron - though it’s worth reading his full remarks
    The last time a large European nation was humiliated in a Treaty 20 years later it did not end too well.

    For God's sake if anyonbored with this.
    Yes, or to quote Tusk from October 2016, "There is only Hard Brexit or No Brexit", and even though that has been repeated endlessly, it seems that only yesterday did Mrs May listen for the first time.

    She has spent the last two years in a fantasy world, building castles in the air. Reality was always going to be a shock.
    So why is Tusk's statement and leakrejection.
    I think Tusk was just being polite. There are elements in Chequers quite similar to Norway. If the whole package became Norway then it would be viable.

    It was all summarised into 1 powerpoint slide in a very elegant precis. The higher steps are still there, but it is May's redlines that prevent ascending that far up the steps:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer-graphic-brexit-theresa-mays-red-lines-on-bespoke-model_uk_5a39497ce4b0fc99878f2058
    That was my point - he's not being polite. The EU deliberately decided to dramatise things, which I am actually in favour of as it means we should stop fussing about trying to water down something which cannot be watered down more as the fundamentals are toxic to the EU. By headlining a dramatisation and then putting out a weaker 'Eh, its a step in the right direction but still not right' so called polite response he is being disingenuous and treating everyone like idiots, as though the plan he and others orchestrated to be so publicly clear about the crapness of May's plan did not happen. It isn't polite to say one thing one day then dial it back the next day.

    I am surprised Tusk would act so, frankly, I did not have him down as an insulting person. But I find his pretend de-dramatisation far more despicable than what occurred yesterday, which was diplomatically rough but perfectly defendable as the EU laying down, unequivocally, once again, their red line, and telling us to stop having false hope.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Incidentally, has everyone seen the reports that May literally read out her newspaper article to the other leaders?

    So what? If the EU's rejection was based on the principles of the plan being fundamentally unacceptable then her presenting her plan badly is irrelevant as a firm reaction was inevitable. So were they principled or not?
    I’m not making a point about that, but it just seems like odd behaviour.
    May being crap is not really news.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I do wonder what Dr Foxy will think of this story:

    A landmark ruling against two leading drug companies could save the NHS in England "hundreds of millions" a year.

    Novartis and Bayer were trying to stop NHS doctors from prescribing a cheaper treatment for a serious eye condition.

    Health bosses said the judgement in the High Court may reduce the power of companies to set prices.

    Drug company Novartis said they were "disappointed" because patients were being asked to accept an unlicensed treatment to save the NHS money.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45588983

    It is an interesting story, and according to NICE Avastin is just as safe, but the case does raise questions about pre release testing. Avastin bypassed all these, why can not other drugs do the same?
    Because it’s used in other indications with higher blood concentrations in the PK data
    Avastin has entered widespread use in ophthalmology without phase 1, 2 or 3 trials, and now has government approval. Probably a good thing, but it does run a coach and horses through pharma regulation.
    Yes. But offlabel prescription has always happened - it’s just marketing that isn’t allowed. I’m surprised at NICE but I’m guessing they draw comfort from the safety database.

    But Javid is about to ride a coach and horse through pharma regulation
    Off label prescribing is nothing new, but the government endorsing it when there are licensed drugs for that indication is new.

    Big Pharma is the winner either way in this case, as now they can agitate for accelerated drug approvals without safety or efficacy for other products.

    This is quite a sentinal case, but probably the right judgement. The implications are far wider than this particular disease.

    Incidentally the Novartis product goes generic in the USA in 2020 and in the UK in 2022, so then the argument becomes moot because of generic production.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    She didn’t get much of a bounce from her hysterical speech accusing the EU of interfering in the election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2018
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contempion.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I still disagree with your assessment of May - you think she offered up a plan which went down like a bag of cold sick with the grassroots for popularity? I think the only reason she offered up such a deal, despite it being so unpopular with her party members, was because she was attempting to thread the needle between what they could accept and what the EU could accept, knowing that because her time in office is limited she had to make that tough choice. If she wanted to preserve her popularity there are far fewer pro-EU rebels and ERG rebels (which is why she has had to placate the latter more) and if as generally reported the bulk of the MPs will go with what plan they are presented, it would have been more popular to go with a much harder Brexit plan. Therefore it makes sense that she genuinely believes her plan minimised the damage of Brexit while respecting the leave vote as much as possible, even if she was wrong about that.

    You say it takes two to tango, and May has clearly been tangoing with the EU - her MPs and members were so angry with her because they thought she gave them too much. SHe hasn't called it right, clearly, and I don't put that entirely at the foot of the EU but at the two sides just being diametrically opposed. I think May is quite prepared to give further if she has to despite her rhetoric, but so far the EU hasn't given any ground to give her cover to do even try that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Foxy said:


    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.

    Of course she will - I reckon the polls will show a 5-7 point Conservative lead at the end of the month irrespective of the Labour Conference (which Salzburg has overshadowed) and whatever happens in Birmingham at the end of the month when no doubt the Party will rally behind the Prime Minister.

    The crunch then becomes October 18th.

  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    If you expect a flounce bounce then you are accepting that her address today will go down well in the electorate. I expect she will have resonated with many and turned the debate into deal or no deal and away from the dishonestly named peoples vote campaign

    Indeed if this results in a deal she will deserve a lot of credit and I would expect that to show eventually in the polls and secure her mid term future
  • stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.

    Of course she will - I reckon the polls will show a 5-7 point Conservative lead at the end of the month irrespective of the Labour Conference (which Salzburg has overshadowed) and whatever happens in Birmingham at the end of the month when no doubt the Party will rally behind the Prime Minister.

    The crunch then becomes October 18th.

    Her stance today may well have stopped the upward tick in UKIP and her conference speech suddenly looks easier. Tomorrow is labour's conference but also the leave event in Bolton. Expect the events of the last couple of days and coverage of Bolton will squeeze labour off the weekends headlines
  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    She didn’t get much of a bounce from her hysterical speech accusing the EU of interfering in the election.
    Something has changed in the last 24 hours.

    The whole dynamic has shifted as the EU get a canning in the UK from the media and press.

    The men in suits (apart from 3 women) really have provided a sorry spectacle to the Country and in trying to be clever and ever so childish will have recruited anti EU sentiment more than anything Farage could have done

    It is an entirely self administered mistake by them
  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    She didn’t get much of a bounce from her hysterical speech accusing the EU of interfering in the election.
    Something has changed in the last 24 hours.

    The whole dynamic has shifted as the EU get a canning in the UK from the media and press.

    The men in suits (apart from 3 women) really have provided a sorry spectacle to the Country and in trying to be clever and ever so childish will have recruited anti EU sentiment more than anything Farage could have done

    It is an entirely self administered mistake by them
    You've made similar comments before and ended up retreating. I think it will be the same again.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited September 2018
    nunuone said:
    This story looks like very bad news, primarily intended to give Trump and the GOP cause to fire Rosenstein (who has already rejected the article as misleading) and in turn fire/neuter the Special Counsel.

    I have absolutely no doubt that Trump is personally up to his neck in it, the only thing that would convince me otherwise would be Mueller clearing Trump, but if he fires him I'm going to take it as red that essentially all the allegations against Trump are true, whether they originated with the FBI/CIA investigation, or the later Steele dossier.
  • Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    She didn’t get much of a bounce from her hysterical speech accusing the EU of interfering in the election.
    Something has changed in the last 24 hours.

    The whole dynamic has shifted as the EU get a canning in the UK from the media and press.

    The men in suits (apart from 3 women) really have provided a sorry spectacle to the Country and in trying to be clever and ever so childish will have recruited anti EU sentiment more than anything Farage could have done

    It is an entirely self administered mistake by them
    You've made similar comments before and ended up retreating. I think it will be the same again.
    Not this time - today your dream of staying in the EU died
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    kle4 said:

    I still disagree with your assessment of May - you think she offered up a plan which went down like a bag of cold sick with the grassroots for popularity? I think the only reason she offered up such a deal, despite it being so unpopular with her party members, was because she was attempting to thread the needle between what they could accept and what the EU could accept, knowing that because her time in office is limited she had to make that tough choice. Therefore it makes sense that she genuinely believes her plan minimised the damage of Brexit while respecting the leave vote as much as possible, even if she was wrong about that.

    First, apologies for snipping the response.

    Second, I wanted to reply to your response on the previous thread but the world (and my dinner) decreed otherwise.

    Theresa May dug her own political bed not just by seeking to become Prime Minister in 2016 but through the disaster of her own self-indulgent GE last year which weakened her appreciably and will probably do this country untold damage in terms of the deal we might have been able to get.

    I also recognise her dogged attempts at inclusivity from day one - everyone has a home in the May tent - but the problem with trying to get a deal which pleases everyone is no such deal exists so all that can be done is to get a deal which irritates everybody equally and that may be where we finish up.

    As for the EU, well, yes, but we are the ones leaving. We are the ones that have to come up with something that works both for us and for them. If it were Finland or Italy leaving it would be exactly the same. There is no "one size fits all off-the-shelf" deal as an excuse for actually doing the hard graft to work out a deal (or series of bilateral deals) which works.

    I will cheerfully concede the EU "could" be more helpful but there's little in it for them. The risk for them is the UK going out without a deal isn't a disaster but in fact goes smoothly because it will encourage anyone and everyone else to leave.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.

    Of course she will - I reckon the polls will show a 5-7 point Conservative lead at the end of the month irrespective of the Labour Conference (which Salzburg has overshadowed) and whatever happens in Birmingham at the end of the month when no doubt the Party will rally behind the Prime Minister.

    The crunch then becomes October 18th.

    I think she'll get a bounce too, though not a huge one - "May stands firm" and "Anothr fine mess" are competing for themes that the electorate will notice. But either way, her strategic position hasn't got any easier, and if the outcome is a messy fudge I'm doubtful that the bounce will be sustained.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    True , similar to the Cameron veto , a few years ago.
    Which hardly anyone can remember now.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    True , similar to the Cameron veto , a few years ago.
    Which hardly anyone can remember now.
    Even I dont, but we live in the now and she has grabbed the headlines and stood upto the EU

    Quinton Letts just tweeted that a rock solid remainer has just said that is it, I want out.

    Wonder how many more
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited September 2018
    glw said:

    nunuone said:
    This story looks like very bad news, primarily intended to give Trump and the GOP cause to fire Rosenstein (who has already rejected the article as misleading) and in turn fire/neuter the Special Counsel.

    I have absolutely no doubt that Trump is personally up to his neck in it, the only thing that would convince me otherwise would be Mueller clearing Trump, but if he fires him I'm going to take it as red that essentially all the allegations against Trump are true, whether they originated with the FBI/CIA investigation, or the later Steele dossier.
    The $64,000 question is whether and if so what the Mueller team have shared with the state AGs’ offices, primarily NY and VA. Trump can’t stop a state investigation or pardon himself if convicted by a state court. Probably a state court can’t indict or try a sitting POTUS, but the state offices could disclose eniugh evidence to make successful impeachment a certainty.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    True , similar to the Cameron veto , a few years ago.
    Which hardly anyone can remember now.
    Even I dont, but we live in the now and she has grabbed the headlines and stood upto the EU

    Quinton Letts just tweeted that a rock solid remainer has just said that is it, I want out.

    Wonder how many more
    One of the misjudgements from the beginning has been that what the UK wants, it gets. More people wanting something doesn't mean they will get it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Yorkcity said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    May cannot even contemplate compromising further for a deal unless the EU give us something in return - even an uneven exchange in their favour can possibly be sold, maybe, but if they don't give anything back then I don't think it matters how cliff edge things are, the numbers won't be there - Labour won't back it, and not enough Tories will as there are enough who support a cliff edge approach.

    So the question is what can the EU budge on so that we can budge even more on something else? How it could occur I don't know, but the EU backing down a bit on Ireland could make it work? Yes May would still look bloody silly accepting full customs union or whatever the option would be, given she has trashed that idea too, but it seems easier to get people to accept than the EU's Irish option.

    It takes two to tango and no one is suggesting May runs up the white flag but the attitude and tone adopted at Salzburg, while it may work well with the British public, clearly wasn't going to wash with the EU.

    Sometimes politicians have to do things which while not in their best political interests are in the best interests of the country as a whole - that's leadership. This is where I part company with the adherents of May. She seems obsessed with her popularity and image - everything she has done since July 2016 has been around her popularity and the maintenance of her good self in office.

    Looking and sounding angry with the EU goes down well with the Conservative vote (as I'm sure she knows) but there will come a point when the road will run out and, as you say, whatever ground the EU gives, the UK will have to go further than May might like and that will be when she has to take the risk - her interest against the country's interests ? It shouldn't be a question at all of course.

    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.
    True , similar to the Cameron veto , a few years ago.
    Which hardly anyone can remember now.
    Even I dont, but we live in the now and she has grabbed the headlines and stood upto the EU

    Quinton Letts just tweeted that a rock solid remainer has just said that is it, I want out.

    Wonder how many more
    I think you are getting carried away. I was unimpressed today - she came across as petulant and playing to the gallery - Her task is hard and I wish her every success - if such a word means anything in the context of Brexit. I'd have preferred her to rise above it and be more stateswoman like. I believe any bounce will be very limited.
  • stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    I expect that May will now get her own "flounce bounce" before reality strikes again.

    Of course she will - I reckon the polls will show a 5-7 point Conservative lead at the end of the month irrespective of the Labour Conference (which Salzburg has overshadowed) and whatever happens in Birmingham at the end of the month when no doubt the Party will rally behind the Prime Minister.

    The crunch then becomes October 18th.

    I think she'll get a bounce too, though not a huge one - "May stands firm" and "Anothr fine mess" are competing for themes that the electorate will notice. But either way, her strategic position hasn't got any easier, and if the outcome is a messy fudge I'm doubtful that the bounce will be sustained.
    Do you think the electorate will notice anything Corbyn has to say about Brexit this next week?
This discussion has been closed.