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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited October 2018

    The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

    A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.

    To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.

    I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, worse.

    To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

    And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.
    Without a stable UK-EU relationship locked into the geopolitics of Europe, the EU is not a stable entity in the long-term.
    Why? The Großdeutsches Reich of 1940 would have had a long-term future if its leader has not stupidly attacked the USSR, contrary to his previously stated views on not creating a war on 2 fronts. But of course the EU has fomented friction with Russia too, in particular in the Ukraine, in line with the Drang nach Osten policy of its forebears.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    daodao said:

    daodao said:

    daodao said:

    daodao said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.
    The Maybot doesn't have a FEASIBLE plan. At least Bojo realises this.
    But he has no idea about a workable alternative. There have been two years since the vote, and for all his massive intellect, he has not produced something that is any better from terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU.

    This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.

    Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.
    Bojo supports a Canada-style deal, as does D. Davis. This is a realistic option. The UK cannot be half-in/half-out of the Single Market, which is why the Chequers deal is a non-runner.
    "This is a realistic option".

    I fear this is a case of "what I wish" == "realistic".

    Besides, it's two years too late. And saying "Canada-style deal" is *not* a plan. It's waffle.
    A Canada-style deal is realistic and acceptable to the EU, although there would be major economic challenges. Please see:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R
    Again, note the word 'style' in your comment. That is not a plan: it is vague waffling. The devil is in the details, and what is, and is not, acceptable to all the parties would depend on those details.

    In addition, it's a bit effing late.
    But it is a realistic basis for negotiation, unlike the dodo that is Chequers.

    A customs border in the Irish Sea is acceptable, provided that is the wish of the people on the island of Ireland, as per the GFA. The Westminster government should not have a veto on such a border, if it is acceptable to the majority of people in the 32 counties.
    The final deal will look very similar to chequers, with some provisions given different names to allow both sides to save face.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explanation discovered for why young voters might believe socialism could work this time:
    https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328

    Although if anyone wants truly epic self-delusion that does much to explain the cult of the Jezziah, try this sneaked onto the last thread:

    The big story is how the Tories have become the anti-business party.

    It's becoming a very widely held perception.
    There is polling on this. In August, a poll of UK business leaders found 32% thought Labour best understood the needs of British business vs. 68% for the Tories. Now that's a clear minority, but I think it's still surprisingly high.

    https://www.ft.com/content/95f6e86c-a5fc-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b
    I accidentally got sent some preliminary data for a study in a particular industry which is pretty consistent with those figures. The votes of actual businessmen of course aren't enough to have any effect on election results - but that doesn't mean that it isn't important that the Tories are losing their standing with the business community. There aren't many Jews either, but it isn't helping Labour's brand image to have a problem with a minority.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's remarkable that the current Chancellor is a 66-1 shot for next PM.

    Indeed. Who is willing to back him at such a price? It is a long time since we have had such an uninfluential Chancellor with so little to contribute to the political scene. Even Darling had more influence.

    Grown-ups who understand the real world have no meaningful role to play in British politics these days.

    I think the Tories have suffered greatly from having such an apolitical Chancellor. We don't have to imagine what Osborne would have done with the employment figures of the last 2 years or the recent growth figures or the falling deficit because we saw it. These successes are going under the radar because the Tories have a Chancellor on mute. We saw the same at the last election although May seems to have been principally at fault then.

    Hammond is a very traditional Conservative. He is very close to the business community and gets their concerns in a way that very few, if any, in the Cabinet do. But there is really no point if he does not articulate his views and try to win adherents to his cause. He resists additional spending and simply pockets the accelerated fall in the deficit because that, once again, is what traditional Tories do.

    But such a viewpoint really does not come close to addressing the real pressure points on so much of government spending today, whether in housing, Social Care, local government or even defence. The Tories need a political Chancellor who wants to shape the message of what the government is delivering around his spending and makes something of the successes that comes his way. That is not Hammond. Perhaps he suits a PM who thinks playing politics is beneath her.

    Osborne contributed greatly to politics’ slide into the JCR. His strategy of punishing the young to buy the votes of the old has done huge, long-term, perhaps irreparable, damage to the Tories.

    The Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, it is the 40 to 50s they need to win back
    The people who were under 30 in 1983 are now late fifties, early sixties. The very people Labour still can't get any traction with. The extraordinary unpopularity of the Tories with young people right now might well turn out to be a major factor in politics for years to come.
    Labour won under 30s in 1987 and 1992, those voters are now in their 50s. Had those voters still been voting Labour and not voted Tory in 2017 Corbyn would be in No 10
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    HYUFD said:

    US and Canada agree to replace NAFTA with a US-Mexico-Canada Deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45702609

    but how can a deal have been reached when trump is rude to people? I'm sure I've read that mild to medium harsh historical allegories for instance lead to nations collapsing in shock and torpedo hopes of diplomacy.

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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    I get why the Republicans want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. I don’t get why he himself wants to be appointed in circumstances where his reputation and credibility has been shot to pieces. He risks becoming an enduring icon of America’s dysfunction.

    I assume since his reputation and credibility has been shot to pieces anyway he feels he may at least attain the position they were shot to pieces for.
    Nicely put.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited October 2018
    daodao said:

    The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

    A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.

    To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.

    I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

    And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.
    Without a stable UK-EU relationship locked into the geopolitics of Europe, the EU is not a stable entity in the long-term.
    Why? The Großdeutsches Reich of 1940 would have had a long-term future if its leader has not stupidly attacked the USSR, contrary to his previously stated views on not creating a war on 2 fronts. But of course the EU has fomented friction with Russia too, in particular in the Ukraine, in line with the Drang nach Osten policy of its forebears.
    A bit early in the morning for alternative WW2 history, but if Barbarossa hadn’t happened then Russia would most likely have attacked Nazi Germany by the mid 1940s anyway.
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    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    US and Canada agree to replace NAFTA with a US-Mexico-Canada Deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45702609

    but how can a deal have been reached when trump is rude to people? I'm sure I've read that mild to medium harsh historical allegories for instance lead to nations collapsing in shock and torpedo hopes of diplomacy.

    Have Mexico agreed to pay for the wall?
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    I am not sure whether I am in a minority of 1, but I am beginning to come round to Mrs May. She will never be a great leader in the Thatcher mould, but she shows one strong characteristic and that is resilience. She is also helped by the fact that the LHMO is an anti_Semite neo-Communist and of the two darlings of the Tory right, one looks and behaves like Coco-the-clown and the other looks and behaves like a strange hybrid between Heinrich Himmler and Walter the Softy
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    US and Canada agree to replace NAFTA with a US-Mexico-Canada Deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45702609

    but how can a deal have been reached when trump is rude to people? I'm sure I've read that mild to medium harsh historical allegories for instance lead to nations collapsing in shock and torpedo hopes of diplomacy.

    Have Mexico agreed to pay for the wall?
    Hope so!
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    Roger said:

    Whatever anyone thinks of Philip Hammond he's far and away the most clear thinking and plain speaking Tory currently in governent.

    well said
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,997
    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    Relentless accretion of wealth and power for the capital owning classes. With Brexit they've abandoned their defining mission.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    I am not sure whether I am in a minority of 1, but I am beginning to come round to Mrs May. She will never be a great leader in the Thatcher mould, but she shows one strong characteristic and that is resilience. She is also helped by the fact that the LHMO is an anti_Semite neo-Communist and of the two darlings of the Tory right, one looks and behaves like Coco-the-clown and the other looks and behaves like a strange hybrid between Heinrich Himmler and Walter the Softy

    May has good qualities even if she does not seem up to the job. In fairness is anyone. But I appreciate she seems to at least be trying now to be grown up about things, and until they take action she will attempt what she thinks is best.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Mortimer said:

    Hammond just trotted out the usual we can’t have Canada style deal because it will split the UK

    But the EU are currently trying to split the UK with the Chequers plan.

    So, why are we persisting with Chequers?

    No. The EU is trying to split the UK with the backstop agreement. Chequers gives a common rulebook for the whole of the UK (which is why the EU doesn't like it as they don't want to divide goods & services).
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    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    Brexit will do that.
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    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    Agreed. Though it's other important purpose is to oppose the Labour Party, (a party that has recently become a clear threat to all those things). It is a task that has been severely damaged by the right wing of the Tory Party's obsession with Europe
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Nothing says a Conservative party cannot be liberal. There are Liberal parties who are conservative.
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    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    It was pretty much the type of government that Mrs Thatcher delivered.

    Are you really saying Mrs T wasn’t a Tory?
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    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Incorrect. It was mainstream Conservative thinking until very recently when people with your type of views hijacked the party. Margaret Thatcher would have agreed with all of that, with the exception that she was perhaps less socially liberal than most of us
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745


    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    It was pretty much the type of government that Mrs Thatcher delivered.

    Are you really saying Mrs T wasn’t a Tory?
    Keep with the times - all the most successful party leaders weren't really of their own party. Probably how they got elected, the devils.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121


    I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, worse.

    To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

    And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.

    Responsibility is shared between:

    a) the people who locked us into the EU for decades without asking the permission of the voters and

    b) especially Blair, for allowing a vast migration into the UK he could have prevented, whilst not providing health, transport or housing with the resources to meet such increases - because that admission would have been politically painful and

    c) Clegg for blocking all discussion of our relationship with the EU during the Coalition, allowing the rise of UKIP and

    d) Cameron for not standing up to Clegg, not standing up to UKIP, not standing up to the EU - and pissing off his own supporters by calling them Little Englanders for pointing out his renegotiation was a steaming pile and

    e) Remain for losing the unloseable Referendum and

    f) May for losing the unloseable election she didn't have to call and

    g) Boris for shagging when he should have spent every waking moment crafting a saleable Manifesto of how he would make Brexit work (admittedly, far harder than shagging...) and

    h) Gove for knifing Boris and not letting the members have a choice of a Remainer or a Brexiteer overseeing the implementation of Brexit and

    i) the Civil Service for being the Agents of Remain and

    j) May, again, for taking the Brexit implementation back in house and giving it to another of her useless clown troupe of advisors and

    k) May, yet again, for Chequers and

    l) Corbyn, for being Brexit's Bessy Mate and

    m) the EU, for thinking they don't need to negotiate - because they could play the Brits as they could play every other EU nation, steering us to go and vote again and get the right result this time.

    However, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, blame the voters.




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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,434
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Incorrect. It was mainstream Conservative thinking until very recently when people with your type of views hijacked the party. Margaret Thatcher would have agreed with all of that, with the exception that she was perhaps less socially liberal than most of us
    Apart from Section 28 Mrs Thatcher was very socially liberal.

    One of her earliest acts as PM was to civilise the Scots and the Ulster Scots by decriminalising homosexuality in those God bothering areas.

    As a callow MP she was one of the few Tory MPs she supported Leo Abse’s bill to decriminalise homosexuality in England and Wales.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Morning all :)

    On topic, there are three reasons why Theresa May is still Prime Minister:

    1) Jeremy Corbyn. He remains a hugely polarising figure - you either worship the ground he walks on (as some do) or the very thought of him getting near No.10 makes you physically ill as you reach for the pitchfork. His net effect has been to bolster BOTH the Labour and Conservative numbers. I'm not hugely convinced Labour would be doing that much better with an alternate leader.

    2) There are too many alternatives - Boris may or may not be a runner in this handicap for 3-y-o of all ages but there will be at least half a dozen "possibles" and as we've already seen from that ludicrous offering from Jeremy Hunt yesterday, it will be interesting which members of the Cabinet will be speaking to an audience beyond the Conference itself.

    3) None of them would be doing any better - thanks to Corbyn, May's numbers are still looking very respectable and none of the other Cabinet members would be doing any better and indeed many would be much worse. In 1990, what did for Thatcher were the polls showing her 10 points behind Labour and a Heseltine (and later Major) led Party on terms. For all the vulnerable backbenchers this was a signal which couldn't be ignored and self-preservation trumped loyalty (as it always will).

    As a non-Conservative, I found Hunt's speech deeply disappointing but he wasn't talking to me - his audience was inside the hall and I also thought it interesting that Digby Jones's attack on Boris, while getting some applause, didn't seem that popular with the Prime Minister or the Cabinet sitting near her.

    Yet for all the noise on here you'd think Boris was a greater threat to the Conservative Party than Jeremy Corbyn and he (Boris) probably is but that doesn't seem to stop him (Boris) enjoying a strong reservoir of support within the Party rank and file.
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    Plus Mrs Thatcher didn’t want Cecil Parkinson to resign after he told her he was boffing his secretary.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I think no deal will be quite a bit worse than pathetic.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Well I think that the 'Orange bookers' in the lib dems were probably the closely to what I would describe as perfect.

    Or to be honest, Blairs New labour
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    edited October 2018

    This is Hunt's Portillo moment: the "who dares wins" de nos jours. I said the other day that if Hunt is serious about the leadership he should hire an image consultant as he often looks a bit shabby on screen. It might also have prevented this crass speech.

    Hunt is just another Tory who is happy to put personal ambition ahead of the country’s good standing and international reputation. He’ll happily demean the experiences of tens of millions of people who lived under Soviet occupation and dictatorship if he thinks it will get him a few more leadership votes.

    I quite liked Hunt and was disappointed he resorted to that sort of comment especially as he is our Foreign Sec. Sadly it does demonstrate the sort of guff you have to come out with to appease the Tory faithful.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    daodao said:

    The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

    A CanadaRedux.

    I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, worse.

    To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

    And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.
    Without a stable UK-EU relationship locked into the geopolitics of Europe, the EU is not a stable entity in the long-term.
    Why? The Großdeutsches Reich of 1940 would have had a long-term future if its leader has not stupidly attacked the USSR, contrary to his previously stated views on not creating a war on 2 fronts. But of course the EU has fomented friction with Russia too, in particular in the Ukraine, in line with the Drang nach Osten policy of its forebears.
    There is no serious way in which Europe can defend itself without the British military and security services. Further, it also needs the liquidity and financial services of the city of London to prosper.

    Of course, the rhetoric is that the EU can dust itself off after Brexit and shrug a giant, “meh”. The reality is its lost 20-25% of its economic weight and population and can ill-afford a rival global hub and alternative centre of gravity for Europe just 25 miles off its shores, which is the way the UK will eventually go (even after a disastrous 5 years of Corbyn) following no-deal.
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    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Incorrect. It was mainstream Conservative thinking until very recently when people with your type of views hijacked the party. Margaret Thatcher would have agreed with all of that, with the exception that she was perhaps less socially liberal than most of us
    Apart from Section 28 Mrs Thatcher was very socially liberal.

    One of her earliest acts as PM was to civilise the Scots and the Ulster Scots by decriminalising homosexuality in those God bothering areas.

    As a callow MP she was one of the few Tory MPs she supported Leo Abse’s bill to decriminalise homosexuality in England and Wales.
    Good points. I suppose I was thinking of Section 28 which wasn't her finest achievement
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I think no deal will be quite a bit worse than pathetic.
    They are going to do a deal. Both sides need it. Everyone is focusing on the worst possible outcome for political reasons.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Morning again all :)

    I'm also interested in this story about legislation to ensure waiting staff get all the tip or service charge handed over by the well-fed diner or diners.

    My first thought is whether there will be any intention to extend this to cruise ships because that could be interesting.

    Second, I see the Hospitality industry isn't at all happy claiming it already "self regulates" and I think they have a point. A restaurant isn't just the staff who bring the food to your table - it's also the kitchen staff. Presumably, the kitchen staff are employed on a different basis to waiting staff but is that correct ?

    I'm also curious that Labour and the LDs have been arguing this for years (and, to his credit, so did Javid as Business Secretary) but only now is something happening.

    There will be those who criticise this as anti-business and "nanny" State interference in how businesses operate. Waiting staff are free to move to restaurants where they get a bigger share of the Service Charge - these will attract the best staff and do better (the food might be a factor too). Inherently the market will regulate out those establishments where the staff get the worst deal.

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Well I think that the 'Orange bookers' in the lib dems were probably the closely to what I would describe as perfect.

    Or to be honest, Blairs New labour
    It was a definition of an Orange Book LD (or I suppose a Cameroon or Blairite) rather than a traditional Tory.

    The Tories only became the pro business party in opposition to Labour, in the 19th century when the Liberals were the main Tory opponents the Tories were often pro tariff while the Liberals were for free trade
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:


    Labour won under 30s in 1987 and 1992, those voters are now in their 50s. Had those voters still been voting Labour and not voted Tory in 2017 Corbyn would be in No 10

    What percentage of under 30s votes in 1987 vs now? Maybe all the people. Who voted Labour then still do.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Incorrect. It was mainstream Conservative thinking until very recently when people with your type of views hijacked the party. Margaret Thatcher would have agreed with all of that, with the exception that she was perhaps less socially liberal than most of us
    Thatcher was more 19th Liberal than traditional Tory in some respects, more Gladstone than Disraeli
  • Options
    Regarding the Tories and business - are they so politically unaware that they can't see the massive damage they are doing to themselves?

    Business people aren't stupid. Amazingly enough they know more about how their business and their industry works than the guff that comes out of the mouth of a delusional Brexiteer. Yet Tory MPs keep lining up to attack business, suggesting that their factual real world knowledge is somehow a lie and that their fact free I believe in Fairies approach to trade is more accurate.

    At which point does business tell them to do one?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    May will soldier on for the next month or two but she needs a Deal, if it is No Deal Brexit she hands the advantage to the ERG who will have the momentum to replace her with Boris or Mogg, if she persists with Chequers and the EU continue to block it then Javid or Hunt or Davis look likely to replace her on a Canada Plus ticket

    Boris or Mogg? I know you're Conservative through to your core, but if that's the future then the party's effed.

    I quite like Boris, but he's been found wanting in many areas of politics. Fans seem to think he's saleable to the GBP, but his nature of clowning over gaffes will not work as PM - it barely worked as FS.

    As for Mogg: a few months go I said there was no way I could vote for a Conservative Party which had him as a leader. You might want to note that other Conservative-leaning posters agreed.

    May's replacement will come from elsewhere. Where JRM may play a role - sadly - is as Kingmaker.
    +1
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,997



    There is no serious way in which Europe can defend itself without the British military and security services. Further, it also needs the liquidity and financial services of the city of London to prosper.

    They get the security and military cooperation through NATO so Brexit is largely irrelevant in that context.

    Although I do think that one of the consequences of Brexit will be a rapid expansion and maturation of the EU Military Service.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    Nothing says a Conservative party cannot be liberal. There are Liberal parties who are conservative.
    Of course the Conservative Party has liberal elements but it is defined by support for the monarchy, the nation state and defence of property not free market liberalism
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Yes, me again :)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45559594

    If you want to understand how Britain and British society has changed in the last 60 years, this will tell you a great deal.

    As an aside, Brother Stodge, who works in the commercial vehicle industry, was telling me about the "just in time" delivery system and the concerns some people in the industry have about how this will be impacted by a "No Deal" on 29/3/19.

    He tells me the lorries cannot be held up or stopped for any length of time as the perishable nature of the products and the delivery schedules to keep the supermarkets stored simply don't allow it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited October 2018
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:


    Labour won under 30s in 1987 and 1992, those voters are now in their 50s. Had those voters still been voting Labour and not voted Tory in 2017 Corbyn would be in No 10

    What percentage of under 30s votes in 1987 vs now? Maybe all the people. Who voted Labour then still do.
    As I said most under 30s then who voted voted Labour, most vote Tory now
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited October 2018


    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    To provide a pro-buiness, pro-growth, pro-individual freedom government which can run public services efficently and well and let people acheive their goals.

    Instead it's been sucked back into the dark-ages.
    That is more liberalism than conservatism
    It was pretty much the type of government that Mrs Thatcher delivered.

    Are you really saying Mrs T wasn’t a Tory?
    Mrs T was really a 19th century Liberal with a dash of Salisbury Union Jack waving nationalism
  • Options
    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    HYUFD said:


    Of course the Conservative Party has liberal elements but it is defined by support for the monarchy, the nation state and defence of property not free market liberalism

    There was a clear convergence between Cameron's Conservative Party and Clegg's Liberal Democrats from 2007-8 onwards. After 13 years of Labour Government, there were similarities over the response which made the Coalition possible.

    Osborne came for instance to support rises in personal allownaces which had beebn argued in opposition by David Laws and Steve Webb's expertise on pensions was in advance of anything on the Conservative side but there was a convergence between the Cameroons and the Orange Bookers which made the 2010-15 Government possible.

    While the two strands had captured the respective leaderships, the more traditional nuances of Conservative and Liberal thought survived strongly and the parties soon began to diverge again once in Government and we saw this in the issues at May's Home Office.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    Or, the employees could.....MOVE JOBS! Unemployment at a low, etc, etc.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited October 2018
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    Or, the employees could.....MOVE JOBS! Unemployment at a low, etc, etc.
    The interesting thing about this (first google out of the traps) is that it appears that there are over 10,000 restaurant/catering vacancies in Wimbledon (London SW19)!!!????

    https://indeed.co.uk/Restaurant-jobs-in-England
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Dura_Ace said:



    There is no serious way in which Europe can defend itself without the British military and security services. Further, it also needs the liquidity and financial services of the city of London to prosper.

    They get the security and military cooperation through NATO so Brexit is largely irrelevant in that context.

    Although I do think that one of the consequences of Brexit will be a rapid expansion and maturation of the EU Military Service.
    There might be a rapid expansion of bureaucracy supporting a EU Military Service. There is materially less evidence of any willingness to adequately consider the difficult spending decisions which fall from this.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    Or, the employees could.....MOVE JOBS! Unemployment at a low, etc, etc.
    They could and do. But why should exploitative practices be tolerated? If its an issue big enough that a Conservative government, a CONSERVATIVE government feels the need to legislate then it is clearly an issue.

    Again, millions and millions of people in work. Grafting. Yet being exploited. Not being paid enough to pay the bills. Save. Do anything more than exist. The Tory party used to exist to champion their cause.

    What happened?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997


    Responsibility is shared between:

    a) the people who locked us into the EU for decades without asking the permission of the voters and

    b) especially Blair, for allowing a vast migration into the UK he could have prevented, whilst not providing health, transport or housing with the resources to meet such increases - because that admission would have been politically painful and

    c) Clegg for blocking all discussion of our relationship with the EU during the Coalition, allowing the rise of UKIP and

    d) Cameron for not standing up to Clegg, not standing up to UKIP, not standing up to the EU - and pissing off his own supporters by calling them Little Englanders for pointing out his renegotiation was a steaming pile and

    e) Remain for losing the unloseable Referendum and

    f) May for losing the unloseable election she didn't have to call and

    g) Boris for shagging when he should have spent every waking moment crafting a saleable Manifesto of how he would make Brexit work (admittedly, far harder than shagging...) and

    h) Gove for knifing Boris and not letting the members have a choice of a Remainer or a Brexiteer overseeing the implementation of Brexit and

    i) the Civil Service for being the Agents of Remain and

    j) May, again, for taking the Brexit implementation back in house and giving it to another of her useless clown troupe of advisors and

    k) May, yet again, for Chequers and

    l) Corbyn, for being Brexit's Bessy Mate and

    m) the EU, for thinking they don't need to negotiate - because they could play the Brits as they could play every other EU nation, steering us to go and vote again and get the right result this time.

    However, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, blame the voters.

    I notice in that you don't mention politician leavers as a whole. The politicos who campaigned for Brexit for decades, brought down party leaders and in the end had no clue what to do are, in your mind, blameless. Not just Gove or Boris (who you do mention), but the whole crowd of them, from Bone to Farage.

    I think that's ridiculous.

    And yes, voters do have some responsibility. If they have the vote then they're grown-ups, and one of the important factors in being grown-up is admitting mistakes.

    Many leavers evidently cannot do that.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will soldier on for the next month or two but she needs a Deal, if it is No Deal Brexit she hands the advantage to the ERG who will have the momentum to replace her with Boris or Mogg, if she persists with Chequers and the EU continue to block it then Javid or Hunt or Davis look likely to replace her on a Canada Plus ticket

    Boris or Mogg? I know you're Conservative through to your core, but if that's the future then the party's effed.

    I quite like Boris, but he's been found wanting in many areas of politics. Fans seem to think he's saleable to the GBP, but his nature of clowning over gaffes will not work as PM - it barely worked as FS.

    As for Mogg: a few months go I said there was no way I could vote for a Conservative Party which had him as a leader. You might want to note that other Conservative-leaning posters agreed.

    May's replacement will come from elsewhere. Where JRM may play a role - sadly - is as Kingmaker.
    The Tories would be on 35% with Mogg according to Yougov v Corbyn Labour ie higher than they got from 1997 to 2005 and the same as Blair got in 2005 and 38% with Boris. You may not like Mogg, plenty of Leavers do.

    If we go to No Deal it is hard to see May or the Tories lasting long in government, it would likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and reliant on LD votes sooner rather than later reopening negotiations with the EU but Boris or Mogg would be favourites to take over as Leader of the Opposition on a 'true Brexit' platform
    Mogg is utterly untested with reality. People project things onto him as they want them to be, and the reality will be *very* different. He'd be a disaster.

    We can say that more solidly with Boris, who has been tested twice, and got a distinct C+ and then an F.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    Or, the employees could.....MOVE JOBS! Unemployment at a low, etc, etc.
    They could and do. But why should exploitative practices be tolerated? If its an issue big enough that a Conservative government, a CONSERVATIVE government feels the need to legislate then it is clearly an issue.

    Again, millions and millions of people in work. Grafting. Yet being exploited. Not being paid enough to pay the bills. Save. Do anything more than exist. The Tory party used to exist to champion their cause.

    What happened?
    It's a crap policy. For show only - don't blame me I'm only a Party member.

    As for millions and millions of people in work being exploited? Um, no. But the cold turkey from Gordie's in work bribes for both employer and employee are, as with any withdrawal, painful. Now, it might also turn out that those pesky foreigners with their cheaper standards of living and better productivity mean that the UK has to rebase lower. And that really would be painful. Far fewer council houses with brand spanking new Range Rover Evoques parked outside for starters.
  • Options
    Sky have been promoting their idea of an independent commission to mandate GE election debates and promote it at every opportunity. Today after weeks of hammering it they have reached 12,000 signatures and are pleading for it to get to 100,000

    Either they do not have many viewers or maybe more likely the public have more important things to do
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997

    Without a stable UK-EU relationship locked into the geopolitics of Europe, the EU is not a stable entity in the long-term.

    I think that may e the case long-term if the the UK remained in the EU as it is.

    On the other hand, the EU may stand a better chance of surviving *without* us in, as we're bellyaching and generally troublesome partners. There's also the fact that the EU is an evolving institution and, if we're talking long-term, then it may continue to evolve in order to survive. IMO the current trend doesn't support that, but trends can change.

    One of the things that has annoyed me about the EU after the vote is that they haven't taken any responsibility. The leave vote was to a degree a failure of the EU - and they ignoring that failure. That makes other failures more likely in the future IMO.
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    Hammond may well be the reincarnation of the Spitting Image John Major puppet (grey, dull, uninteresting). But he isn't wrong:

    "It isn’t about taking back control, it’s about fantasy world. The European Union have been very clear that as they negotiate with us they have their red lines, just as we have our red lines, and they are not prepared to negotiate for a free trade agreement which includes the whole of the United Kingdom because of the impact that would have on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    We can spend our time sitting at a table, banging it and demanding something that our negotiating partners have clearly told us is not on offer, or we can try to find a way through with a solution that works for Britain and will also be acceptable to them within their red lines." (Good Morning Britain interview)

    He speaks facts and practised negotiation strategy. No wonder so many Tories hate him.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    Utterly agree with that.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    "True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?"

    I thought that the ConservativeHome monthly was a survey of a sample of the whole membership. But Mike implies that this cannot be relied upon as a true guide?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    Agree wholeheartedly.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. NorthWales, I noticed that. Crass and self-absorbed effort to try and give broadcasters the whip hand, and the numbers are pretty damned small.
  • Options

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    Cruise ships gratuties are a disgrace. They are added to your ship board account daily and unless you challenge it, it is taken out of your account at the end of the cruise. In addition many passengers tip their cabin staff individually.

    As an example our 24 day round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York next September already shows our outstanding gratuities are £452. This excludes on board drinks where an additional 15% is applied
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Stocky said:

    True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?

    Not at all. Or not wholly. I think Johnson is a tosser, for example.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    I predicted she'd still be there. Sudden change is rare in politics - it's usually best to bet on the status quo.

    The problem at the moment is that we seem to have got to a position where the status quo isn't actually viable. And May really is a woman for steadfastly maintaining things as they are. I'm not sure she's someone who can embrace change, and I do now think she's in her final year as PM.
  • Options

    As an example our 24 day round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York next September already shows our outstanding gratuities are £452. This excludes on board drinks where an additional 15% is applied

    Hang on. £452 in "tips"???? Thats a LOT of money. Who gets it?

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Hammond may well be the reincarnation of the Spitting Image John Major puppet (grey, dull, uninteresting). But he isn't wrong:

    "It isn’t about taking back control, it’s about fantasy world. The European Union have been very clear that as they negotiate with us they have their red lines, just as we have our red lines, and they are not prepared to negotiate for a free trade agreement which includes the whole of the United Kingdom because of the impact that would have on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    We can spend our time sitting at a table, banging it and demanding something that our negotiating partners have clearly told us is not on offer, or we can try to find a way through with a solution that works for Britain and will also be acceptable to them within their red lines." (Good Morning Britain interview)

    He speaks facts and practised negotiation strategy. No wonder so many Tories hate him.

    He sounded like a sensible grown up this morning on the Today programme. I would prefer boring sensibleness to malice (Corbyn/Farage), grandstanding puffery (Boris), incompetence (Davis, Fox), pathetic insults (Hunt) or pointless stubborness (May).
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    DavidL said:

    We are actually going to hear from Hammond today. This is the BBC explanation as to why he seems to have so little to say despite having consistently good results to boast about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45701803

    If Hammond wants to shout some good economic news then today's manufacturing PMIs provide a little.

    UK 53.8
    Germany 53.7
    France 52.5
    Spain 51.4
    Italy 50.0

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    I'm not sure how long since the UK last topped the table of the 'big five' - some SPAD can have a look.

    In other economic news poor German and Swiss retail sales - I do wonder how many European retail chains have gone the way of the bankrupt and struggling British ones.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Stocky said:

    "True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?"

    I thought that the ConservativeHome monthly was a survey of a sample of the whole membership. But Mike implies that this cannot be relied upon as a true guide?

    ConHome surveys are not polls where a representative sample is used.
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    Stocky said:

    True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?

    More important than the membership, how does he poll with voters
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    Mr. NorthWales, I noticed that. Crass and self-absorbed effort to try and give broadcasters the whip hand, and the numbers are pretty damned small.

    It is embarrassing. Boulton is nearly on his knees begging for people to sign it
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Gavin Williamson apparently thinks the problem with his "shut up and go away" comment is that it was "blunt", not that it made him sound like a ten year old
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    You can still lay TM at 7 on betfair to go between Oct and Dec of this year. I doubt there are many who honestly want to take over before March 2019.
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    Sky have been promoting their idea of an independent commission to mandate GE election debates and promote it at every opportunity. Today after weeks of hammering it they have reached 12,000 signatures and are pleading for it to get to 100,000

    Either they do not have many viewers or maybe more likely the public have more important things to do

    You can take a horse to water but you can not make it drink.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Stereotomy, shade unfair on ten year olds.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    True Johnson now tops the regular next leader “surveys” at the hardline pro-Brexit website ConservativeHome but how representative of the membership is that?

    Not at all. Or not wholly. I think Johnson is a tosser, for example.
    So do I
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    I predicted she'd still be there. Sudden change is rare in politics - it's usually best to bet on the status quo.

    The problem at the moment is that we seem to have got to a position where the status quo isn't actually viable. And May really is a woman for steadfastly maintaining things as they are. I'm not sure she's someone who can embrace change, and I do now think she's in her final year as PM.

    I think that's right. The chances of a no deal scenario are increasing and I wonder if that is now the EUs preferred outcome - not because they want a no deal Brexit but because they think it will lead to an extension of article 50 and a second referendum. And if that happens then May is certainly toast.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Mr. NorthWales, I noticed that. Crass and self-absorbed effort to try and give broadcasters the whip hand, and the numbers are pretty damned small.

    Televised election debates are here to stay. An independent commission would seem an appropriate way to manage it and if the wave is coming is better to try and ride it.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

    What purpose is that?
    Relentless accretion of wealth and power for the capital owning classes. With Brexit they've abandoned their defining mission.

    Taking back some power?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    +1. It's a general point that if there's a consensus that something is good behaviour (I've yet to hear anyone say that tips really should be confiscated by management), then legislation (or financial rewards) can be useful in preventing the good employers being undercut by dodgier rivals.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908


    +1. It's a general point that if there's a consensus that something is good behaviour (I've yet to hear anyone say that tips really should be confiscated by management), then legislation (or financial rewards) can be useful in preventing the good employers being undercut by dodgier rivals.

    And yet business groups come out and criticise the change. If their members are doing it already, they should welcome the fact that other unscrupulous businesses are being prevented from undercutting them.

    Sometimes I think that 'anti-intervention' is just so ingrained in some people's mindsets they don't even see when something is helping them.
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    As an example our 24 day round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York next September already shows our outstanding gratuities are £452. This excludes on board drinks where an additional 15% is applied

    Hang on. £452 in "tips"???? Thats a LOT of money. Who gets it?

    It is a huge amount. It is shared among the staff as far as I am aware but I do not know the detail. There is a lot of annoyance about it and some cruise ships promote themselves by advising no gratuties are payable as they know how unpopular it is.

    I am sure many passengers get the shock of their lives when they receive their disembarkation receipt having seen the money go out of their account without realising just how much it is

    It is approx £10 per passenger per day
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    matt said:




    Mr. NorthWales, I noticed that. Crass and self-absorbed effort to try and give broadcasters the whip hand, and the numbers are pretty damned small.

    Televised election debates are here to stay. An independent commission would seem an appropriate way to manage it and if the wave is coming is better to try and ride it.
    Maybe but my point is the apathy in signing their petition
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121

    Hammond may well be the reincarnation of the Spitting Image John Major puppet (grey, dull, uninteresting). But he isn't wrong:

    "It isn’t about taking back control, it’s about fantasy world. , and they are not prepared to negotiate for a free trade agreement which includes the whole of the United Kingdom because of the impact that would have on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    We can spend our time sitting at a table, banging it and demanding something that our negotiating partners have clearly told us is not on offer, or we can try to find a way through with a solution that works for Britain and will also be acceptable to them within their red lines." (Good Morning Britain interview)

    He speaks facts and practised negotiation strategy. No wonder so many Tories hate him.

    "The European Union have been very clear that as they negotiate with us they have their red lines, just as we have our red lines"

    Does anybody have any idea what Hammond's "red lines" are? Because that comment from Hammond seems to suggest that we have to respect the EU's red lines - and cave in on our own...

    No wonder so many Tories hate him.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Matt, perhaps. I dislike the debates rather a lot.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's another example of May's interventionist leanings - there is no area of society, it seems, which cannot be improved or made "fairer" by proper legislation. It almost sounds like the kind of thing a Labour Government would do.

    I think it's straight out of a Labour policy announcement. I imagine it will be popular since people like the idea of helping those they can see. I imagine restaurants will manage to negotiate that the tips can also be given to other staff in kitchens, not just those literally bringing the food.
    As with the intervention on energy bills the Tory party declares the concept Marxist then gets on and does the same thing. Why? Because aside from all the bluster about free markets and capitalism the system isn't working for millions and millions of people.

    Restaurants should not be forced to give 100% of tips to waiting staff, they should be doing it anyway because its right. There are plenty of responsible businesses out there who treat their staff well, so why can't we call out the ones who don't? Oh yeah, because thats what the trade unions do, and unions are evil...
    +1. It's a general point that if there's a consensus that something is good behaviour (I've yet to hear anyone say that tips really should be confiscated by management), then legislation (or financial rewards) can be useful in preventing the good employers being undercut by dodgier rivals.
    Totally agree.

    But as an interesting policy point, I wonder whether this practice has got worse since the minimum wage was introduced?
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    Cyclefree said:

    Hammond may well be the reincarnation of the Spitting Image John Major puppet (grey, dull, uninteresting). But he isn't wrong:

    "It isn’t about taking back control, it’s about fantasy world. The European Union have been very clear that as they negotiate with us they have their red lines, just as we have our red lines, and they are not prepared to negotiate for a free trade agreement which includes the whole of the United Kingdom because of the impact that would have on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    We can spend our time sitting at a table, banging it and demanding something that our negotiating partners have clearly told us is not on offer, or we can try to find a way through with a solution that works for Britain and will also be acceptable to them within their red lines." (Good Morning Britain interview)

    He speaks facts and practised negotiation strategy. No wonder so many Tories hate him.

    He sounded like a sensible grown up this morning on the Today programme. I would prefer boring sensibleness to malice (Corbyn/Farage), grandstanding puffery (Boris), incompetence (Davis, Fox), pathetic insults (Hunt) or pointless stubborness (May).

    Yep. Sadly, there is no place for grown-ups in British politics these days. I do not like Hammond's politics, but he at least understands reality.

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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    I predicted she'd still be there. Sudden change is rare in politics - it's usually best to bet on the status quo.

    The problem at the moment is that we seem to have got to a position where the status quo isn't actually viable. And May really is a woman for steadfastly maintaining things as they are. I'm not sure she's someone who can embrace change, and I do now think she's in her final year as PM.

    Leadership has taken a hell of a toll on her. She looks knackered, shrivelled and a bit doddery and shell-shocked. I'm no fan of her at all but I'm willing to concede that she's been in office during an extraordinarily tumultuous and challenging time.
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    I know we all agree that we have a very poor political class at present but just how poor are our journalists and broadcast media.

    Listening to Sky and BBC and reading on line news from mail on line, the guardian, and other news sources it is rare to find a really good impartial presenter or journalist
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,997

    As an example our 24 day round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York next September already shows our outstanding gratuities are £452. This excludes on board drinks where an additional 15% is applied

    Hang on. £452 in "tips"???? Thats a LOT of money. Who gets it?

    I might go back to sea as a fucking waiter. Do they scrap it if you challenge it?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Observer, worth bearing in mind the grown-ups of yesteryear promised us a referendum on Lisbon and then reneged upon it. It was decades of grown-ups ceding sovereignty without ever consulting the electorate that got us so embedded in the EU.

    I agree the current crop of political leaders is a poor harvest, but a lot of what they have to deal with was sown by their predecessors.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited October 2018
    Someone (@Pulpstar?) asked yesterday if anyone has ever come back from dormy 5 down in the Ryder Cup.

    When I was a kid I got into golf just as the 1991 Ryder Cup was on. It was a great Ryder Cup at Kiawah Island. Monty made his debut and came back from dormy 5-down on the final day to halve with Calcavecchia. It was all in vain as Langer missed the final putt against Hale Irwin on the last hole.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    +1

    The approach I generally take is to ask serving staff if they get all the tip. If not, get restaurants to remove ‘service charges’ from the bill and tip in cash.
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    Fenster said:

    I predicted she'd still be there. Sudden change is rare in politics - it's usually best to bet on the status quo.

    The problem at the moment is that we seem to have got to a position where the status quo isn't actually viable. And May really is a woman for steadfastly maintaining things as they are. I'm not sure she's someone who can embrace change, and I do now think she's in her final year as PM.

    Leadership has taken a hell of a toll on her. She looks knackered, shrivelled and a bit doddery and shell-shocked. I'm no fan of her at all but I'm willing to concede that she's been in office during an extraordinarily tumultuous and challenging time.
    History may be kinder to TM than todays daily narrative. After all everyone seems to think they can do better but not one person has put their head above the parapet, apart from comrade Corbyn but that is a very different story
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    Fenster said:

    I predicted she'd still be there. Sudden change is rare in politics - it's usually best to bet on the status quo.

    The problem at the moment is that we seem to have got to a position where the status quo isn't actually viable. And May really is a woman for steadfastly maintaining things as they are. I'm not sure she's someone who can embrace change, and I do now think she's in her final year as PM.

    Leadership has taken a hell of a toll on her. She looks knackered, shrivelled and a bit doddery and shell-shocked. I'm no fan of her at all but I'm willing to concede that she's been in office during an extraordinarily tumultuous and challenging time.
    History may be kinder to TM than todays daily narrative. After all everyone seems to think they can do better but not one person has put their head above the parapet, apart from comrade Corbyn but that is a very different story
    We are yet to determine the narrative for the decade, which is what will be in the history books. If we crash out next year, then the narrative may not be clear for another decade.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,284

    DavidL said:

    We are actually going to hear from Hammond today. This is the BBC explanation as to why he seems to have so little to say despite having consistently good results to boast about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45701803

    If Hammond wants to shout some good economic news then today's manufacturing PMIs provide a little.

    UK 53.8
    Germany 53.7
    France 52.5
    Spain 51.4
    Italy 50.0

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    I'm not sure how long since the UK last topped the table of the 'big five' - some SPAD can have a look.

    In other economic news poor German and Swiss retail sales - I do wonder how many European retail chains have gone the way of the bankrupt and struggling British ones.
    I didn't hear all of his interview this morning but in the bit I did hear he certainly didn't mention them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,928
    Mortimer said:

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    +1

    The approach I generally take is to ask serving staff if they get all the tip. If not, get restaurants to remove ‘service charges’ from the bill and tip in cash.
    I once received a bill which was a bit more than I'd mentally totted my meal to... removed the 15% service charge from a bill and didn't leave a tip. Told the manager "£8 for two small cokes, that's your tip within the bill".
    'Enforced tipping' is an unwelcome US import in my opinion.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    As an example our 24 day round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York next September already shows our outstanding gratuities are £452. This excludes on board drinks where an additional 15% is applied

    Hang on. £452 in "tips"???? Thats a LOT of money. Who gets it?

    I might go back to sea as a fucking waiter. Do they scrap it if you challenge it?
    You can challenge it and make your own gratuties but in practice few do.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Customers as well as staff are being ripped off when restaurant owners pocket the tips given. Restaurant owners have been given years to get their houses in order on this. This is a small bit of populism that seems decent enough to me.

    +1

    The approach I generally take is to ask serving staff if they get all the tip. If not, get restaurants to remove ‘service charges’ from the bill and tip in cash.
    I once received a bill which was a bit more than I'd mentally totted my meal to... removed the 15% service charge from a bill and didn't leave a tip. Told the manager "£8 for two small cokes, that's your tip within the bill".
    'Enforced tipping' is an unwelcome US import in my opinion.
    I don't have a problem with 10% when you've had a meal with table service, enforced or not. But outside the parameters I previously pushed back.
This discussion has been closed.