Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Mogg on Newsnight confirms he supported Boris to be Tory leader in 2016 originally and considers him a future leader but sticks to loyalty to May for now
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Mogg a rockstar?
A month back I saw a group of tourists recognise JRM and shout and wave to him as he crossed Whitehall. He has a certain charisma and is on telly a lot. Whether you like the message or not, that places him above most MPs.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Do you ever tire of pseudo-patriotic dick-swinging from the other side of the world?
Still, it must be comforting to know that whatever economic misery the ERG wreckers visit on us, it will have zero impact on the economy of Alice Springs, or wherever it is you are rattling from.
Oh yes. What is so funny about all the Boris bashing from Remainers is that it makes JRM much more likely to win. If Boris realises he doesn’t have enough support he and the ERG will still have a huge block of votes to put behind someone and JRM may well be their man. On this basis he will make the final two and would win the membership vote by a mile.
JRM has not put a foot wrong so far. Won’t attack May but has destroyed her credibility on Brexit. Since the referendum he has been the dominant voice for Brexit despite being just a backbencher. You might disagree with him, but If you can’t see his political genius you are being deliberately blind.
My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.
If one Republican goes, then it gives cover to Collins and Murkowski.
If something happens, though, I think it will only happen behind closed doors. If the FBI turns up something, then there won't be a report or anything like that, but Kavanaugh will regretfully announce that for the good of his family, he's withdrawing his name from the process.
For this reason, I don't think the headlines are very useful. If the price moves up above about 75% chance of nomination, I think I'll probably make a small sell. The current PredictIt market at c. 66% feels about right.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Do you ever tire of pseudo-patriotic dick-swinging from the other side of the world?
Still, it must be comforting to know that whatever economic misery the ERG wreckers visit on us, it will have zero impact on the economy of Alice Springs, or wherever it is you are rattling from.
Do you ever get tired of making personal attacks because you lack the talent to address the issues? If you have a valid comment on May’s backstop plan feel free. Otherwise you are not fair dinkum.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Mogg a rockstar?
A month back I saw a group of tourists recognise JRM and shout and wave to him as he crossed Whitehall. He has a certain charisma and is on telly a lot. Whether you like the message or not, that places him above most MPs.
I don’t doubt that. It is the term rock star that makes me snort. Freakish celebrity, okay.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Mogg a rockstar?
Yes. Whatever one thinks of him, his views and his abilities, he has become the clear voice of a significant faction of support. He's done that without even holding any senior office, by dint of his appeal. It's not enough that anyone could have done the same, he has clearly seized the opportunity because he had more appeal than others.
I have watched BBC and Sky News today. Not a word about the end of NAFTA. Why not? The new agreement between the USA Canada and Mexico is excellent for world trade.The Peso and Canadian dollar have risen and markets have reacted favourably. I fully understand that it goes against the narratives of the media to give any credit to the current USA president. But it would not hurt them to cover a piece of really good news that bodes well for the UK in a post Brexit environment. Go on Jon Sopel. Just once try and say something positive about the American government.
Was a major item on the radio news. I suspect this is a case of dumbing down for the TV news.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for t is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
They don't need a rock star to beat Corbyn. May beat him, albeit by much less than almost everyone thought she would. They need ideas and credibility, and someone better at campaigning than May - it doesn't follow that they must therefore go for a charismatic risk like Boris whose best achievements are a long time ago now, and who has been in the spotlight for a long time too, and therefore his appeal is waning as everyone's does over time.
Boris seems to me to be the sort of option you pick if you have zero time to consider anything else and you need to take a gamble on his chaotic nature and appeal. But if the Tories could just keep their shit together for 5 minutes they have time before the next election.
9 times out of 10 the more charismatic candidate wins. Yes you need ideas too but it is charismatic leadership above all that normally wins elections.
Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.
Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.
Indeed. We will look back at this time of describe it as TMay's finest hour.
You two do worry me sometimes. Do you actually follow politics at all? You like the idea of watered down FOM and in CU in all but name?
1. Too much cherry picking for EU to accept. 2. At least half the Tory party will hate it. 3. Brazenly not just breaks her own red lines, but converts them to large black and white pointy lines, pointing way to job centre.
For May there will be no finest hour. It’s not sad, like Brown she’s talentless PM, don’t deserve finest hour. Gives a good speech, performs well in interviews? Nope, nope. Knows her brief, knows her own mind? Nope, nope. She inherited crown by default, by not being in a faction. better peers poisoned each other off, fell on their own swords, or got an arrow in the eye from voters.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Do you ever tire of pseudo-patriotic dick-swinging from the other side of the world?
Still, it must be comforting to know that whatever economic misery the ERG wreckers visit on us, it will have zero impact on the economy of Alice Springs, or wherever it is you are rattling from.
Do you ever get tired of making personal attacks because you lack the talent to address the issues? If you have a valid comment on May’s backstop plan feel free. Otherwise you are not fair dinkum.
I have said this so often on here I worry people will bore of it.
Single Market + Customs Union would meet the terms of the referendum with the minimal economic damage, so go for that. Extremists like you on the hard right are determined to derail anything even vaguely in that direction, despite a very close vote 48-52. May is just trying to patch something together. Give her a break.
I have watched BBC and Sky News today. Not a word about the end of NAFTA. Why not? The new agreement between the USA Canada and Mexico is excellent for world trade.The Peso and Canadian dollar have risen and markets have reacted favourably. I fully understand that it goes against the narratives of the media to give any credit to the current USA president. But it would not hurt them to cover a piece of really good news that bodes well for the UK in a post Brexit environment. Go on Jon Sopel. Just once try and say something positive about the American government.
It is good news. He's basically reverted to the situation just before he came to power, except that he thinks the US should be allowed to unilaterally impose tariffs on countries with whom it has FTAs.
Couple of questions. How do businesses prove they have tried to recruit here, and are making an effort to train up locals? How do they then prove workers are integrating? Sounds like a bonfire of red tape. To be built not set on fire. Edit: Questions not directed at you Carlotta
The current system for hiring getting visas for non-EU nationals includes a requirement to have advertised and interviewed British staff. It does generate a bunch of red tape, especially if you're looking to get someone with hyper-specific skills.
And, of course, it's gamed. So, if you find a talented (say) New Zealand Python programmer and you want to hire him, you'll work with him to find something he is genuinely unique at. You'll then advertise demanding exactly that skill set - "Must be expert in x and y, and have demonstrated it by managing an open source project with more than 200 contributors".
Re NAFTA. This is the comment that really stuck with me:
“Canada must remember the lesson this turbulent period has provided: we must never again allow ourselves to be overly dependent on one trading partner,” said Perrin Beatty, president of the Canadian chamber of commerce. “We must continue to diversify our markets to protect ourselves from capricious and unfair actions in the future.”
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for t is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
They don't need a rock star toryone's does over time.
Boris seems to me to be the sort of option you pick if you have zero time to consider anything else and you need to take a gamble on his chaotic nature and appeal. But if the Tories could just keep their shit together for 5 minutes they have time before the next election.
9 times out of 10 the more charismatic candidate wins. Yes you need ideas too but it is charismatic leadership above all that normally wins elections.
Corbyn has fired up his base very effectively, but is not some astounding charismatic figure either - the Tories don't need to gamble on some unpredictable mess of a candidate even if they want someone who is better than May in displaying charisma. You are really overhyping Corbyn.
On topic, personally I prefer the presumption of innocence.
It depends. "Presumption of innocence" , and "Beyond Reasonable Doubt" are applicable to criminal trials, however this is a job interview where a balance of probabilities is appropriate.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his lea from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
They don't need a rock star toryone's does over time.
Boris seems to me to be the sort of option you pick if you have zero time to consider anything else and you need to take a gamble on his chaotic nature and appeal. But if the Tories could just keep their shit together for 5 minutes they have time before the next election.
9 times out of 10 the more charismatic candidate wins. Yes you need ideas too but it is charismatic leadership above all that normally wins elections.
Corbyn has fired up his base very effectively, but is not some astounding charismatic figure either - the Tories don't need to gamble on some unpredictable mess of a candidate even if they want someone who is better than May in displaying charisma. You are really overhyping Corbyn.
Good night all.
I am fine with May for now to try and get the withdrawal agreement and transition period but to win a majority at the next general election the Tories will likely need a leader with more charisma and flair
On topic, personally I prefer the presumption of innocence.
It depends. "Presumption of innocence" , and "Beyond Reasonable Doubt" are applicable to criminal trials, however this is a job interview where a balance of probabilities is appropriate.
Also, this has moved beyond the simple question of whether he assaulted Dr Ford, and is now about whether he lied under oath at the hearing.
On topic, personally I prefer the presumption of innocence.
It depends. "Presumption of innocence" , and "Beyond Reasonable Doubt" are applicable to criminal trials, however this is a job interview where a balance of probabilities is appropriate.
Balance of probablilities ? As I’ve pointed out several times, if you were employing (for example) a teacher subject to such allegations, I think you’d require a rather more convincing refutation than that. And like most employees, they would be subject to dismissal for gross misconduct; getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is much, much more difficult.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I don't know about that. If the confirmation is still in play at the time of the mid-terms it could encourage a lot of voters motivated by Supreme Court judgements, such as Roe v Wade, to turn out for the Republicans and a Conservative Supreme Court Justice.
I'm surprised that they haven't opted for a longish FBI probe that wouldn't report until after the mid-terms. They would hope that this would slow down the negative revelations before the election, it keeps the Supreme Court as an election issue to encourage turnout, and the GOP are ruthless and shameless enough to push Kavanaugh through before the new Senate takes office in the event that the Dems make gains.
On topic, personally I prefer the presumption of innocence.
It depends. "Presumption of innocence" , and "Beyond Reasonable Doubt" are applicable to criminal trials, however this is a job interview where a balance of probabilities is appropriate.
Balance of probablilities ? As I’ve pointed out several times, if you were employing (for example) a teacher subject to such allegations, I think you’d require a rather more convincing refutation than that. And like most employees, they would be subject to dismissal for gross misconduct; getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is much, much more difficult.
I agree, and it is worth noting that there is actually quite a lot of corroborating evidence:
This is from about a week ago. The Democrats must surely be a bit disappointed not to have more leeway as we move into the final few weeks before voting:
"CBS News-YouGov House Model: Democrats 224, Republicans 211"
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Mogg a rockstar?
A month back I saw a group of tourists recognise JRM and shout and wave to him as he crossed Whitehall. He has a certain charisma and is on telly a lot. Whether you like the message or not, that places him above most MPs.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
Sounds like you think the opposite. To me it seems more likely to be a motivator for the Democrats rather than a de motivator from GOP. I’ve always thought that the Democrats do better when they have something to drive their turnout.
Intriguing though what @Alistair posted earlier - that the Republican identified someone else for the attack *who was dating Ford at the time* and who was a regular companion to Kavanaugh
If Kavanaugh was the attacker then attacking a mates girlfriend is particularly brazen
If the other person was I could see how the transference could work in Ford’s mind: she’s obviously not stupid enough to date someone who would attack her so it must have been someone else. Probably that drunken buffoon her boyfriend hangs out with.
Esther McVey's speech, (on Newsnight), not exactly getting rapturous applause from the conference floor.
I listened to the whole speech which was well scripted and well presented by McVey. She was convincing and has a track record as a previous minister in pensions so can refer back to her own legislation.
Esther McVey's speech, (on Newsnight), not exactly getting rapturous applause from the conference floor.
I listened to the whole speech which was well scripted and well presented by McVey. She was convincing and has a track record as a previous minister in pensions so can refer back to her own legislation.
Esther McVey's speech, (on Newsnight), not exactly getting rapturous applause from the conference floor.
I listened to the whole speech which was well scripted and well presented by McVey. She was convincing and has a track record as a previous minister in pensions so can refer back to her own legislation.
I thought it was a good speech myself.
I quite like McVey. Please don't tell anyone I wrote that.
Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.
Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.
Indeed. We will look back at this time of describe it as TMay's finest hour.
You two do worry me sometimes. Do you actually follow politics at all? You like the idea of watered down FOM and in CU in all but name?
1. Too much cherry picking for EU to accept. 2. At least half the Tory party will hate it. 3. Brazenly not just breaks her own red lines, but converts them to large black and white pointy lines, pointing way to job centre.
For May there will be no finest hour. It’s not sad, like Brown she’s talentless PM, don’t deserve finest hour. Gives a good speech, performs well in interviews? Nope, nope. Knows her brief, knows her own mind? Nope, nope. She inherited crown by default, by not being in a faction. better peers poisoned each other off, fell on their own swords, or got an arrow in the eye from voters.
Quite. There is nothing principled about this - she is just trying to save her skin by lying. Why would a genuine, self-respecting politician conspire with a foreign power to try to mislead her own citizens about what she is doing? If she wants to be in the CU, why would she just not say so?
Because, of course, she promised in blood that she would not do this. She promised that the country would have an independent trade policy, which is IMPOSSIBLE in a customs union, whatever you call it. She promised the transition would be time limited. Oh, and being in the CU does not solve NI unless we are fully aligned with SM regulations, so of course it is cherry picking until she concedes on FOM as well.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
They didn't know about the rape allegation until partway through, so if they backed out now (or last week) they'd at least have a delay of a few weeks.
A rather odd article in the FT where the most substantial point is in the sub-heading. It reads as if it has been gutted in the editing process. The main thing I take is that the EU has no idea what it would do if a deal is voted down:
Damn it! I've just realised why I keep failing at job interviews. It's because I'm hardly ever emotional, never cry, nor do I boast of loving beer.
Next time.
Advice and consent isn’t a job interview
It’s a confirmation hearing not an appointment hearing
It’s vetting for suitability for a job, so Robert’s point stands. You keep comparing it to a criminal trial, with reference to the presumption of innocence. If he were to be impeached, we could have an interesting debate about that....
I’m puzzled why Republicans want to die in a ditch for this guy. Granted he is a naked partisan in a way many judges on the Fedaralist Society list aren’t, but otherwise he is deeply unimpressive as a judge, and his appointment now would look utterly horrible.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
McConnell reportedly opposed his pick for that reason. He is Trump’s choice.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566 The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
They didn't know about the rape allegation until partway through, so if they backed out now (or last week) they'd at least have a delay of a few weeks.
The tl;dr is that SCOTUS is about to decide a case that would prevent people Trump pardons from then being retried in state courts.
Either a) allegations are invented/wrong b) allegations are true and were not known by Trump c) allegations are true and were known by Trump.
a) possible but doesn't seem plausible to me. b) is possible, but then why not get someone else? c) then Trump thinks, rightly or wrongly, Kavanaugh is a personal ally which is valuable beyond his conservative credentials. Trump may even have directly asked, will you protect me from prosecution? It could be connected to that case you mentioned or it could just be a more general, he's in my corner thing.
What a complete shambles that project has turned out to be. Is it really beyond the skills of German engineering to redo the fit out of a building in eight years?
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
McConnell reportedly opposed his pick for that reason. He is Trump’s choice.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
McConnell reportedly opposed his pick for that reason. He is Trump’s choice.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
McConnell reportedly opposed his pick for that reason. He is Trump’s choice.
Politically speaking Kavanaugh has fucked the GOP whether he's confirmed or not.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls, Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
I agree with that. Confirmation of him to the Supreme Court will fire up the Democratic base in a way that could be unstoppable
There's also a non zero chance the Democrats will pursue impeachment. If he is subsequently found to have lied about sexual assault, aren't they well within their rights to do so?
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
McConnell reportedly opposed his pick for that reason. He is Trump’s choice.
Yes I thought I read that somewhere.
Twice, apparently.
For the avoidance of doubt, the backstory at the time was his record as a political partisan, not the assault allegations.
Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.
Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.
Indeed. We will look back at this time of describe it as TMay's finest hour.
You two do worry me sometimes. Do you actually follow politics at all? You like the idea of watered down FOM and in CU in all but name?
1. Too much cherry picking for EU to accept. 2. At least half the Tory party will hate it. 3. Brazenly not just breaks her own red lines, but converts them to large black and white pointy lines, pointing way to job centre.
For May there will be no finest hour. It’s not sad, like Brown she’s talentless PM, don’t deserve finest hour. Gives a good speech, performs well in interviews? Nope, nope. Knows her brief, knows her own mind? Nope, nope. She inherited crown by default, by not being in a faction. better peers poisoned each other off, fell on their own swords, or got an arrow in the eye from voters.
Quite. There is nothing principled about this - she is just trying to save her skin by lying. Why would a genuine, self-respecting politician conspire with a foreign power to try to mislead her own citizens about what she is doing? If she wants to be in the CU, why would she just not say so?
Because, of course, she promised in blood that she would not do this. She promised that the country would have an independent trade policy, which is IMPOSSIBLE in a customs union, whatever you call it. She promised the transition would be time limited. Oh, and being in the CU does not solve NI unless we are fully aligned with SM regulations, so of course it is cherry picking until she concedes on FOM as well.
She is a disgrace. And she will be defeated.
Does the Maybot not understand the 3 words "no cherry picking", so eloquently portrayed in Tusk's excellent Instagram?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566 The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
I found that article a little hard to follow. It does seem to suggest that BK was lying when he said he'd never heard these allegations before. Doesn't mean they are true, but another indication as to who is telling the truth and who isn't.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566 The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
I found that article a little hard to follow. It does seem to suggest that BK was lying when he said he'd never heard these allegations before. Doesn't mean they are true, but another indication as to who is telling the truth and who isn't.
Having seen what Ford looked like at 15, 2 thoughts come to mind. She looks such a young 15 year old it seems very unlikely her parents would have let her go out to parties or get togethers as she's suggesting happened. It's also extremely unlikely a 17 year old sports fanatic would have had any interest in her.
The whole thing looks like an attempted Democrat hit job.
What a complete shambles that project has turned out to be. Is it really beyond the skills of German engineering to redo the fit out of a building in eight years?
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Do you ever tire of pseudo-patriotic dick-swinging from the other side of the world?
Still, it must be comforting to know that whatever economic misery the ERG wreckers visit on us, it will have zero impact on the economy of Alice Springs, or wherever it is you are rattling from.
Do you ever get tired of making personal attacks because you lack the talent to address the issues? If you have a valid comment on May’s backstop plan feel free. Otherwise you are not fair dinkum.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566 The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
I found that article a little hard to follow. It does seem to suggest that BK was lying when he said he'd never heard these allegations before. Doesn't mean they are true, but another indication as to who is telling the truth and who isn't.
Having seen what Ford looked like at 15, 2 thoughts come to mind. She looks such a young 15 year old it seems very unlikely her parents would have let her go out to parties or get togethers as she's suggesting happened. It's also extremely unlikely a 17 year old sports fanatic would have had any interest in her.
The whole thing looks like an attempted Democrat hit job.
You should write into the FBI, you've cracked the case wide open.
What a complete shambles that project has turned out to be. Is it really beyond the skills of German engineering to redo the fit out of a building in eight years?
What a complete shambles that project has turned out to be. Is it really beyond the skills of German engineering to redo the fit out of a building in eight years?
Having seen what Ford looked like at 15, 2 thoughts come to mind. She looks such a young 15 year old it seems very unlikely her parents would have let her go out to parties or get togethers as she's suggesting happened. It's also extremely unlikely a 17 year old sports fanatic would have had any interest in her.
The whole thing looks like an attempted Democrat hit job.
The alleged sexual assault did not take place at a party and I think it's fair to say that some drunk hormonal frat boy jocks would hump a table leg let alone a 15 year old girl.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
You and me and a lot of Conservative MPs, including many in the Cabinet.
The CU isn’t something that can be fudged either, you’re explicitly either in or out, and there’s a register of such arrangements with the WTO.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Surely it’s only a temporary arrangement until the oft mentioned technological solutions to the NI border can be implemented? The Channel Islands have been members of the Customs Union without being members of the EU from the beginning.
While “trade deals” was a purported benefit of Brexit, I suspect FOM is much more of a red line for the public....
Intriguing though what @Alistair posted earlier - that the Republican identified someone else for the attack *who was dating Ford at the time* and who was a regular companion to Kavanaugh
If Kavanaugh was the attacker then attacking a mates girlfriend is particularly brazen
If the other person was I could see how the transference could work in Ford’s mind: she’s obviously not stupid enough to date someone who would attack her so it must have been someone else. Probably that drunken buffoon her boyfriend hangs out with.
Convoluted. Did you work backwards from your desired outcome?
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
Davidson has been consistent but others are not listening. The scot tories will support a Norway solution and will veto a border between northern Ireland and Scotland
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
Davidson has been consistent but others are not listening. The scot tories will support a Norway solution and will veto a border between northern Ireland and Scotland
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Lol. The whole Fox thing about loads of trade agreements always was a mirage.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
Davidson has been consistent but others are not listening. The scot tories will support a Norway solution and will veto a border between northern Ireland and Scotland
But what power do the Scots Tories have to veto any deal? Serious question, I just don’t see how Davidson accepting or not a deal butters any parsnips.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566 The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
I found that article a little hard to follow. It does seem to suggest that BK was lying when he said he'd never heard these allegations before. Doesn't mean they are true, but another indication as to who is telling the truth and who isn't.
Having seen what Ford looked like at 15, 2 thoughts come to mind. She looks such a young 15 year old it seems very unlikely her parents would have let her go out to parties or get togethers as she's suggesting happened. It's also extremely unlikely a 17 year old sports fanatic would have had any interest in her.
The whole thing looks like an attempted Democrat hit job.
You should write into the FBI, you've cracked the case wide open.
Damn it! I've just realised why I keep failing at job interviews. It's because I'm hardly ever emotional, never cry, nor do I boast of loving beer.
Next time.
Advice and consent isn’t a job interview
It’s a confirmation hearing not an appointment hearing
It’s vetting for suitability for a job, so Robert’s point stands. You keep comparing it to a criminal trial, with reference to the presumption of innocence. If he were to be impeached, we could have an interesting debate about that....
I’m puzzled why Republicans want to die in a ditch for this guy. Granted he is a naked partisan in a way many judges on the Fedaralist Society list aren’t, but otherwise he is deeply unimpressive as a judge, and his appointment now would look utterly horrible.
Natural justice - it’s an ethics not a legal concept
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Lol. The whole Fox thing about loads of trade agreements always was a mirage.
Is that a reference to the Dr Fox of some random safe seat who says it was possible, or the Dr Fox of Leicester who has consistently said it won't be possible?
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
The EU are currently passing legislation that restricts the import of old books.
Having a foreign power in charge of your trade policy is bonkers.
Damn it! I've just realised why I keep failing at job interviews. It's because I'm hardly ever emotional, never cry, nor do I boast of loving beer.
Next time.
Advice and consent isn’t a job interview
It’s a confirmation hearing not an appointment hearing
It’s vetting for suitability for a job, so Robert’s point stands. You keep comparing it to a criminal trial, with reference to the presumption of innocence. If he were to be impeached, we could have an interesting debate about that....
I’m puzzled why Republicans want to die in a ditch for this guy. Granted he is a naked partisan in a way many judges on the Fedaralist Society list aren’t, but otherwise he is deeply unimpressive as a judge, and his appointment now would look utterly horrible.
Natural justice - it’s an ethics not a legal concept
In a sense though, the allegations (bad as they are) are now secondary to the fact that the way he behaved at his confirmation hearing strongly indicated he has neither the temperament or the intellect to be a good judge.
That on its own is a good enough reason to veto him.
Intriguing though what @Alistair posted earlier - that the Republican identified someone else for the attack *who was dating Ford at the time* and who was a regular companion to Kavanaugh
If Kavanaugh was the attacker then attacking a mates girlfriend is particularly brazen
If the other person was I could see how the transference could work in Ford’s mind: she’s obviously not stupid enough to date someone who would attack her so it must have been someone else. Probably that drunken buffoon her boyfriend hangs out with.
Convoluted. Did you work backwards from your desired outcome?
No. I find it curious that the person who the Republican investigator identified was her boyfriend. But I know nothing about the quality or otherwise of their investigation.
There’s been no evidence that Javanaygh committed this attack beyond “he drank a lot and hung out with a group of kids”.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
The EU are currently passing legislation that restricts the import of old books.
Having a foreign power in charge of your trade policy is bonkers.
I’m not sure that the problems of an antiquarian bookseller matter much to voters who thought that leaving the EU would lead to the return of “proper” lightbulbs or the removal from the country of anyone who speaks foreign.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.
You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.
And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
Mogg a rockstar?
A month back I saw a group of tourists recognise JRM and shout and wave to him as he crossed Whitehall. He has a certain charisma and is on telly a lot. Whether you like the message or not, that places him above most MPs.
Didn’t they get his name wrong though?
They did, yes. I must have told this before (or you were tourist number 3). To be fair, they did know they'd forgotten his name as they fumbled around the J's: a sort of collective tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon.
“Low skilled immigration will fall”. So leads the BBC this morning.
And with those words May ramps up pressure on her successors to deliver?
Whilst voters on doorstep will tell politicians what to do, there’s too much immigration and so not enough homes for us and it’s killing the NHS, there’s key sectors of the economy, such as social care, struggling with unfilled vacancies, that in truth the NHS needs filled.
Gordon Browns weapon of choice for outflanking Tories on immigration was to keep repeating BJ4BW lines. If they’re naming it in 4 I can name it in 3 Tom. Like a footballer whose injections gets his knee through the next couple of games, but ultimately there is a price to be paid. He now has the political credibility of a cripple. But worse left his team weak in that position.
Who believes leaving EU gives UK government the control to easily and speedily deliver May’s explicit promise to the voters? I don’t. What I would prefer to see is advantages of leaving EU FOM and control taken back, put into honest context of what that actually means if we sign further trade deals with EU and other countries under global Britain, how much is just signed away again to replace what FOM gave British economy? I would like to see honesty from British politicians the extent governments for decades have been addicted to immigration, because these people are working age, pay taxes, and fill key vacancies in key sectors, immigration not forced on us by EU rules but has been embraced with open arms! I would like to see honesty from politicians that, even when we come out EU, the extent government must clash with what business wants to be able to exploit any control taken back.
Who believes ramping up promises like this are electorally very dangerous if not quickly delivered, but is tactic used by likes of Brown and May at conference time to shore up their own positions at the expense of credibility of their successors?
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Not having industries that rely on supply chains would be a red line for me. Including our very substantial car manufacturing industry. Who cares if we apply the same tariff on Peruvian guano as the EU?
The EU are currently passing legislation that restricts the import of old books.
Having a foreign power in charge of your trade policy is bonkers.
I’m not sure that the problems of an antiquarian bookseller matter much to voters who thought that leaving the EU would lead to the return of “proper” lightbulbs or the removal from the country of anyone who speaks foreign.
It’s illustrative of a wider point.
Having a foreign power in charge of what you can and can’t import, and what tarriffs you have to charge, and indeed remitting your duties to a foreign power, is unacceptable.
Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.
However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true
It would sail through the HOC
Unfortunately it would not, because it is a lie.
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Membership of the customs union would be a redline for me.
Lol. The whole Fox thing about loads of trade agreements always was a mirage.
Is that a reference to the Dr Fox of some random safe seat who says it was possible, or the Dr Fox of Leicester who has consistently said it won't be possible?
Haven't we negotiated a Trade Agreement with Tonga for our innovative jams?
Comments
Assuming May gets her way, the UK wide backstop is permanent and can only be ended by the EU. But CETA is incompatible with the CU and the EU have already rejected a bespoke deal. So in the end, agreeing to this backstop simply makes the transition permanent. Nobody can explain how we can ever get a deal where the EU are happy to end the Backstop that does not involve the UK remaining in the SM/CU.
This has been Barnier’s plan all along. Pocket the money and then refuse to complete any trade deal which allows the UK out of the SM. And at that point, FOM will be back and all May’s red lines will go.
If she tries to agree this she will be defeated. The only way she can sell this is if the backstop is time limited, in the way she promised her MPs in writing. The EU won’t agree that. But she is desperate to sellout to save her own skin. Luckily the ERG will tear this plan apart.
Still, it must be comforting to know that whatever economic misery the ERG wreckers visit on us, it will have zero impact on the economy of Alice Springs, or wherever it is you are rattling from.
JRM has not put a foot wrong so far. Won’t attack May but has destroyed her credibility on Brexit. Since the referendum he has been the dominant voice for Brexit despite being just a backbencher. You might disagree with him, but If you can’t see his political genius you are being deliberately blind.
If something happens, though, I think it will only happen behind closed doors. If the FBI turns up something, then there won't be a report or anything like that, but Kavanaugh will regretfully announce that for the good of his family, he's withdrawing his name from the process.
For this reason, I don't think the headlines are very useful. If the price moves up above about 75% chance of nomination, I think I'll probably make a small sell. The current PredictIt market at c. 66% feels about right.
1. Too much cherry picking for EU to accept.
2. At least half the Tory party will hate it.
3. Brazenly not just breaks her own red lines, but converts them to large black and white pointy lines, pointing way to job centre.
For May there will be no finest hour. It’s not sad, like Brown she’s talentless PM, don’t deserve finest hour. Gives a good speech, performs well in interviews? Nope, nope. Knows her brief, knows her own mind? Nope, nope. She inherited crown by default, by not being in a faction. better peers poisoned each other off, fell on their own swords, or got an arrow in the eye from voters.
Single Market + Customs Union would meet the terms of the referendum with the minimal economic damage, so go for that. Extremists like you on the hard right are determined to derail anything even vaguely in that direction, despite a very close vote 48-52. May is just trying to patch something together. Give her a break.
And, of course, it's gamed. So, if you find a talented (say) New Zealand Python programmer and you want to hire him, you'll work with him to find something he is genuinely unique at. You'll then advertise demanding exactly that skill set - "Must be expert in x and y, and have demonstrated it by managing an open source project with more than 200 contributors".
“Canada must remember the lesson this turbulent period has provided: we must never again allow ourselves to be overly dependent on one trading partner,” said Perrin Beatty, president of the Canadian chamber of commerce. “We must continue to diversify our markets to protect ourselves from capricious and unfair actions in the future.”
Good night all.
"one-man museum of economic folly that is Jeremy Corbyn" from Grove.
Now that is good.
Confirmation = Higher turnout, more Dems to the polls,
Non confirmation = Unmotivated GOP base.
It's impossible to prove but I think they'll do worse if he is not confirmed.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1046791164362395650?s=19
As I’ve pointed out several times, if you were employing (for example) a teacher subject to such allegations, I think you’d require a rather more convincing refutation than that.
And like most employees, they would be subject to dismissal for gross misconduct; getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is much, much more difficult.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1046897784677384192?s=19
That "Tens of thousands" pledge may ring a bit hollow now that it has been missed annually for nearly a decade, and missed by a mile.
I'm surprised that they haven't opted for a longish FBI probe that wouldn't report until after the mid-terms. They would hope that this would slow down the negative revelations before the election, it keeps the Supreme Court as an election issue to encourage turnout, and the GOP are ruthless and shameless enough to push Kavanaugh through before the new Senate takes office in the event that the Dems make gains.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/09/how-we-know-kavanaugh-is-lying
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1046594628005363718?s=19
"CBS News-YouGov House Model: Democrats 224, Republicans 211"
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/09/23/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-224-republic
Next time.
Intriguing though what @Alistair posted earlier - that the Republican identified someone else for the attack *who was dating Ford at the time* and who was a regular companion to Kavanaugh
If Kavanaugh was the attacker then attacking a mates girlfriend is particularly brazen
If the other person was I could see how the transference could work in Ford’s mind: she’s obviously not stupid enough to date someone who would attack her so it must have been someone else. Probably that drunken buffoon her boyfriend hangs out with.
It’s a confirmation hearing not an appointment hearing
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-immigration-plan-turf-war-brexit-theresa-may-sajid-javid-a8564261.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
I listened to the whole speech which was well scripted and well presented by McVey. She was convincing and has a track record as a previous minister in pensions so can refer back to her own legislation.
"Top Lufthansa boss says new Berlin airport will probably never open
Airport was set to open in 2012 until safety checks revealed defective smoke extractor system"
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/top-lufthansa-boss-says-new-berlin-airport-will-probably-never-open-1.3432911
Please don't tell anyone I wrote that.
Because, of course, she promised in blood that she would not do this. She promised that the country would have an independent trade policy, which is IMPOSSIBLE in a customs union, whatever you call it. She promised the transition would be time limited. Oh, and being in the CU does not solve NI unless we are fully aligned with SM regulations, so of course it is cherry picking until she concedes on FOM as well.
She is a disgrace. And she will be defeated.
I do wonder why the Republicans didn't just pick someone else without his back story.
The conspiracy theory about why Trump cares about a few weeks is this case:
https://hillreporter.com/the-supreme-court-case-fueling-republicans-rush-to-confirm-brett-kavanaugh-8463
The tl;dr is that SCOTUS is about to decide a case that would prevent people Trump pardons from then being retried in state courts.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1046973339221286912?s=21
You keep comparing it to a criminal trial, with reference to the presumption of innocence. If he were to be impeached, we could have an interesting debate about that....
I’m puzzled why Republicans want to die in a ditch for this guy. Granted he is a naked partisan in a way many judges on the Fedaralist Society list aren’t, but otherwise he is deeply unimpressive as a judge, and his appointment now would look utterly horrible.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/mutual-friend-ramirez-kavanaugh-anxious-come-forward-evidence-n915566
The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.
The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information to the FBI.
a) possible but doesn't seem plausible to me. b) is possible, but then why not get someone else? c) then Trump thinks, rightly or wrongly, Kavanaugh is a personal ally which is valuable beyond his conservative credentials. Trump may even have directly asked, will you protect me from prosecution? It could be connected to that case you mentioned or it could just be a more general, he's in my corner thing.
Also, as predicted by pretty much everyone, Ryanair have cancelled a pile of their winter schedule again, shares down 12.5% yesterday.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-shares-plunge-12-5-following-profit-warning-1.3647387
For the avoidance of doubt, the backstory at the time was his record as a political partisan, not the assault allegations.
The whole thing looks like an attempted Democrat hit job.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/chronically-delayed-berlin-airport-plans-expansion/10030776.article
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-23/how-berlin-s-futuristic-airport-became-a-6-billion-embarrassment
The CU isn’t something that can be fudged either, you’re explicitly either in or out, and there’s a register of such arrangements with the WTO.
While “trade deals” was a purported benefit of Brexit, I suspect FOM is much more of a red line for the public....
https://twitter.com/mattzollerseitz/status/1045320605992652801
Those stats are interesting, but would be more illuminating if we also had figures for male and female support for the parties, or pro-/anti-Trump.
Having a foreign power in charge of your trade policy is bonkers.
That on its own is a good enough reason to veto him.
There’s been no evidence that Javanaygh committed this attack beyond “he drank a lot and hung out with a group of kids”.
And with those words May ramps up pressure on her successors to deliver?
Whilst voters on doorstep will tell politicians what to do, there’s too much immigration and so not enough homes for us and it’s killing the NHS, there’s key sectors of the economy, such as social care, struggling with unfilled vacancies, that in truth the NHS needs filled.
Gordon Browns weapon of choice for outflanking Tories on immigration was to keep repeating BJ4BW lines. If they’re naming it in 4 I can name it in 3 Tom. Like a footballer whose injections gets his knee through the next couple of games, but ultimately there is a price to be paid. He now has the political credibility of a cripple. But worse left his team weak in that position.
Who believes leaving EU gives UK government the control to easily and speedily deliver May’s explicit promise to the voters? I don’t. What I would prefer to see is advantages of leaving EU FOM and control taken back, put into honest context of what that actually means if we sign further trade deals with EU and other countries under global Britain, how much is just signed away again to replace what FOM gave British economy? I would like to see honesty from British politicians the extent governments for decades have been addicted to immigration, because these people are working age, pay taxes, and fill key vacancies in key sectors, immigration not forced on us by EU rules but has been embraced with open arms! I would like to see honesty from politicians that, even when we come out EU, the extent government must clash with what business wants to be able to exploit any control taken back.
Who believes ramping up promises like this are electorally very dangerous if not quickly delivered, but is tactic used by likes of Brown and May at conference time to shore up their own positions at the expense of credibility of their successors?
Having a foreign power in charge of what you can and can’t import, and what tarriffs you have to charge, and indeed remitting your duties to a foreign power, is unacceptable.
I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you...