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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is valu

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

When Ian Paisley said “No!”, people believed that he meant what he said. The Big Man may be gone but his party lives on and it would be extremely unwise for anyone to assume that when Arlene Foster says “no”, she means any different from her predecessor. The DUP do not bluff. Ever. They might occasionally change their minds but when they do, they do so in their own time and on their own terms.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    That's depressing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2018
    It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Something has to break. The govt, the Tory party, the DUP, the EUs red lines, the Irish border, the UKs integrity. Something.

    I suspect it won’t be the thing that limits politicians careers most. The question is, what is that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited October 2018
    Corbyn taking power without an election condemns him to sufferng a defeat at the hands of the Tories and DUP whenever they feel like it.

    Unless Labour can buy off the DUP. But surely not - not after the howls of outrage from the Left when the Tories did that....

    And whatever the DUP's price, the SN would want far, far more. And that's without the LibDems demanding PR as their price. Which might not exactly play well with the DUP.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Excellent, if somewhat sobering thread. It is fair to say the government has not appeared to be on the same wavelength as the DUP before, so there’s a reasonable chance it’s happening again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2018
    Jonathan said:

    It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Something has to break. The govt, the Tory party, the DUP, the EUs red lines, the Irish border, the UKs integrity. Something.

    I suspect it won’t be the thing that limits politicians careers most. The question is, what is that.

    You're absolutely right. I think the government will break first - a commons majority on an agreement is possible if unlikely but would break the government afterwards. The Tories next closest.

    A Corbyn takeover would hardly be smooth sailing given the numbers, but he's so close now he must be salivating. Wisely been quiet.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited October 2018
    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not value - DUP would be very happy to worth with a Con PM with a backbone. It’s DUP - wet remainer relations that are strained.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    The only way to have avoided this would have been to do exactly what the DUP wanted in all things from the start, which would have been said to be too much, or get cross party support with parts of labour a lomg time ago. That probably wouldn't have worked either, and certainly won't now when a GE could happen, but wasn't attempted.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    (And confound you Herdson for writing about something I was working on!)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    Much as I like David’s early Halloween horror-header, I agree with this.

    The DUP seem to have a problem with May and her handling of the NI status - not the conservative government.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    The commentators write off TM at their peril. Over the last 18 months there ahve been at least 3 occasions when the commentariat were convinced she could not survive as PM. Proved wrong every time...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    Why would it be funny?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    edited October 2018
    AndyJS said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    Why would it be funny?
    Schadenfreude squared
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    timmo said:

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    The commentators write off TM at their peril. Over the last 18 months there ahve been at least 3 occasions when the commentariat were convinced she could not survive as PM. Proved wrong every time...
    She had time to play with before which she doesn't now. How does she get one or both of a brexit agreement and a budget through the commons? Both need to be soon. She does not have the votes for the first and might not on the second.

    Yes anyone else would struggle, particularly on the first, but if cannot pass either what even would be the point of her bring there? At the moment it's in part to prevent someone even worse taking over but if she is unable to do anything while there there's not really much to fear any more from others, since harm will be done with no agreement and no budget.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:
    In the event of an outcome the government is not supporting at present.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    timmo said:

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    The commentators write off TM at their peril. Over the last 18 months there ahve been at least 3 occasions when the commentariat were convinced she could not survive as PM. Proved wrong every time...
    She had time to play with before which she doesn't now. How does she get one or both of a brexit agreement and a budget through the commons? Both need to be soon. She does not have the votes for the first and might not on the second.

    Yes anyone else would struggle, particularly on the first, but if cannot pass either what even would be the point of her bring there? At the moment it's in part to prevent someone even worse taking over but if she is unable to do anything while there there's not really much to fear any more from others, since harm will be done with no agreement and no budget.
    At the risk of repeating myself, if she announces a second referendum straight after getting the deal then she bypasses all the risks to her premiership except from the ERG, and she has their measure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    timmo said:

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    The commentators write off TM at their peril. Over the last 18 months there ahve been at least 3 occasions when the commentariat were convinced she could not survive as PM. Proved wrong every time...
    She had time to play with before which she doesn't now. How does she get one or both of a brexit agreement and a budget through the commons? Both need to be soon. She does not have the votes for the first and might not on the second.

    Yes anyone else would struggle, particularly on the first, but if cannot pass either what even would be the point of her bring there? At the moment it's in part to prevent someone even worse taking over but if she is unable to do anything while there there's not really much to fear any more from others, since harm will be done with no agreement and no budget.
    At the risk of repeating myself, if she announces a second referendum straight after getting the deal then she bypasses all the risks to her premiership except from the ERG, and she has their measure.
    I think it's the most possible means of getting a brexit agreement but i think that the DUP don't back the government anymore as a result, therefore the government will collapse shortly thereafter as unhappy Tory rebels will ensure minority government is unworkable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I never thought I would say this .
    However I thought the ex MP Stewart Jackson was very impressive on newsnight last night putting across the Brexit case.
    That from me who voted remain just in the end back in 2016.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    At the risk of repeating myself, if she announces a second referendum straight after getting the deal then she bypasses all the risks to her premiership except from the ERG, and she has their measure.

    The ERG have revealed themselves to be poltroons over and over again. They will never act against May as they a scared that they won't get any form of Brexit at all in the carnage that follows.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    Do you think £39.90 will be enough to cover any losses you sustain from a Corbyn-led government?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Yorkcity said:

    I never thought I would say this .
    However I thought the ex MP Stewart Jackson was very impressive on newsnight last night putting across the Brexit case.
    That from me who voted remain just in the end back in 2016.

    I think there has always been quite a good case against the European Union. It’s just that none of the proponents ever put it. All the debate was about either immigration, or metaphysical musings over sovereignty.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    You can get 6 or close to on Betfair. Personally I’m not tempted at all. It’s not that I think the DUP bluff (though actually they do), it’s that I think any collision would play out very differently.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited October 2018
    Dura_Ace said:



    At the risk of repeating myself, if she announces a second referendum straight after getting the deal then she bypasses all the risks to her premiership except from the ERG, and she has their measure.

    The ERG have revealed themselves to be poltroons over and over again. They will never act against May as they a scared that they won't get any form of Brexit at all in the carnage that follows.
    Critics misunderstand the ERG.

    They’re backbench Tory loyalists pressing for the closest possible deal to the Lancaster House speech.

    The failure of cabinet ministers to resign shouldn’t be attributed to the EG. Every time the ERG have threatened, No 10 has compromised. Both before and since the referendum.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited October 2018

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    My understanding of Israeli foreign policy is that it will retaliate with tremendous force if attacked, but won’t interfere externally unless there is a growing and real threat to their existence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Makes sense. It's easier to counter their votes on this matter (if still not actually an easy thing to get through) than the other options.

    I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In the event of an outcome the government is not supporting at present.
    But which is not entirely within the government’s control, to put it mildly.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    kle4 said:

    Makes sense. It's easier to counter their votes on this matter (if still not actually an easy thing to get through) than the other options.

    I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
    I just don’t see how this works without leading to an election before Brexit day.

    No 10 is playing fast and loose with the prospects of the Tory party being in government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    Do you think £39.90 will be enough to cover any losses you sustain from a Corbyn-led government?
    No, but it would pay for a moderate bottle of whiskey before you reach for the revolver.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2018
    Provided May sticks to her guns of a UK wide customs union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border then that will not cross the DUP red line of no border in the Irish Sea unless as suggested last week she also moved towards NI staying in a single market or the DUP as Dodds seemed to be suggesting demanded NI had no continued EU regulation post Brexit at all.

    Who leads the Tories is of course pretty much irrelevant, not one alternative leader to May polls any better than she does against Corbyn Labour and not one has any alternative Brexit plan the EU could agree too that does not cross the DUP red lines of no border in the Irish Sea.

    If May cannot get a deal through in some respects a general election may not be such a bad thing for the Tories, all the polls show the Tories would almost certainly be largest party and with a majority in England, if Corbyn got in it would only be propped up by the LDs and SNP and the Tories could then go into opposition and leave Corbyn lumbered with a Brexit Deal which would be almost identical to the one May would have produced anyway if she cannot get her plans through the Commons or holding an EUref2 Remain would probably then win, especially of the alternative was No Deal, giving a large pool of betrayed Leavers to fish in. The Tories could then get Leavers fully behind them under a Leader of the Opposition like Boris or Mogg or Patel on a 'true Brexit' plan and have opposition effectively all to themselves. Better that than lumbering on in government in limbo
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    kle4 said:

    Makes sense. It's easier to counter their votes on this matter (if still not actually an easy thing to get through) than the other options.

    I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
    I get the impression that all involved only have partial control of the situation and matters are coming to a head.

    Yeats could have written the Second Coming this week about Brexit and it would have seemed utterly apposite.

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    Makes sense. It's easier to counter their votes on this matter (if still not actually an easy thing to get through) than the other options.

    I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
    I just don’t see how this works without leading to an election before Brexit day.

    No 10 is playing fast and loose with the prospects of the Tory party being in government.
    I think if they want a Brexit agreement, the price will be ending the Tory government, since its own rebels and the DUP won't support whatever is needed to get an agreement.

    In the national interest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In the event of an outcome the government is not supporting at present.
    But which is not entirely within the government’s control, to put it mildly.
    Indeed so, but 'this might need to happen if we fail to get what we want' is not really the same as openly wanting or predicting it will happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Corbyn taking power without an election condemns him to sufferng a defeat at the hands of the Tories and DUP whenever they feel like it.

    Unless Labour can buy off the DUP. But surely not - not after the howls of outrage from the Left when the Tories did that....

    And whatever the DUP's price, the SN would want far, far more. And that's without the LibDems demanding PR as their price. Which might not exactly play well with the DUP.....

    Without a general election Corbyn of course needs the DUP to become PM which is unlikely as his terms will be worse than May's on almost any definition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    I like threads that make your flesh creep but two plot holes:

    1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.

    2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.

    In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.

    Point 1. I agree - it's in the thread.
    Point 2. It would be absurd for a government to lose an entire Budget and for a VoNC not to follow, if it didn't resign first. It's pretty much Page 1 of Opposition for Dummies. Now, it's possible that the DUP might support the Confidence vote afterwards but I doubt it because it'd look ridiculous. In reality, the DUP would be using the Budget as a proxy Confidence vote. But as you say, the Budget probably won't actually be the battleground. Push won't come to shove until either there's an actual Brexit Deal text for the Commons to vote on, or the government's negotiating position has already crossed DUP red lines. Given May's willingness to bend under pressure, I'd expect it to be the former.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited October 2018
    TGOHF said:

    Not value - DUP would be very happy to worth with a Con PM with a backbone. It’s DUP - wet remainer relations that are strained.

    But May *is* PM; there is no other available for the DUP to work with. It's *possible* that an alternative one might be in place before the crucial Commons votes but I doubt it because the logistics make it hard, each side is too worried about losing to the other (and being blamed for yet another distraction from the main event), and a weak PM that they can pressure is not necessarily against their interests.

    Edit - Also, at the risk of a grannies/egg scenario, I'm not saying that I *expect* Corbyn to be the next PM, just that the 14% implied chance that PaddyPower and Betfair were offering struck me as far too low. I think it should be a touch more than double that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    (And confound you Herdson for writing about something I was working on!)

    Sorry.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:
    Very good but completely depressing. It reminds me of a time when Thatcher was looking for the 'enemy within' and you knew that the value of these 'enemies' were much more laudable than the Lady Porters and General Pinochet's who she was celebrating and there was nothing you could do because her servile press were acting as her outriders.

    This is the same. A government of self serving cranks are leading a bunch of morons for the ugliest of reasons. English Nationalism.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Students have been warned not to dress up as "chavs or Tories" or wear sombreros under new guidelines seen by the BBC.
    Kent Union, which represents students from the University of Kent, said outfits which threaten others' rights to "a safe space" should not be worn.
    Banned costumes include cowboys, Native Americans, priests and Mexicans."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-45826809
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Without a new general election a Corbyn government would be defeated within days on a confidence vote. The party simply doesn't have the MP numbers and you can't assume that LD and SNP MPs would give it any backing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited October 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    You can get 6 or close to on Betfair. Personally I’m not tempted at all. It’s not that I think the DUP bluff (though actually they do), it’s that I think any collision would play out very differently.
    Just wanted to pull him out the red overall xD

    Betfair Sportsbook have banned me completely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    Do you think £39.90 will be enough to cover any losses you sustain from a Corbyn-led government?
    No. Would anyone benefit from a Corbyn Gov't though ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This could be a problem for the Democrats in the long-term if the figures are correct:

    "80 Percent Of Americans Think Political Correctness Is A National Problem
    Contrary to a common narrative, majorities of Americans of all ages, income levels, and racial backgrounds strongly oppose political correctnesss."


    http://thefederalist.com/2018/10/12/80-percent-of-americans-think-political-correctness-is-a-national-problem/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2018

    Without a new general election a Corbyn government would be defeated within days on a confidence vote. The party simply doesn't have the MP numbers and you can't assume that LD and SNP MPs would give it any backing.

    For now and provided the DUP keep backing the Tories but polls show the LDs will hold the balance of power at the next general election.

    If the LDs hold the balance of power no legislation can get through without their support, so if say Corbyn became PM as Labour +SNP+PC+Green was more than the Tories + DUP on a confidence vote but less than Tories + DUP + LDs and the LDs abstained on the confidence vote rather than vote with the Tories then yes, the LDs would effectively be propping up Corbyn.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Students have been warned not to dress up as "chavs or Tories" or wear sombreros under new guidelines seen by the BBC.
    Kent Union, which represents students from the University of Kent, said outfits which threaten others' rights to "a safe space" should not be worn.
    Banned costumes include cowboys, Native Americans, priests and Mexicans."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-45826809

    Have Tories now become a protected group on University campuses? If so I've seen it all.

    To be fair you hear about how difficult it is for Tory students, many of them staying in the closet etc. An why is it that radical Universities tend t show up in the most unlikely places. Canterbury, Kent?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
    So people should be judged on the basis of whether they are western?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    An excellent header once again Mr Herdson. It is one scenario. But there are many, with multiple moving parts almost any outcome is possible.
    There is certainly the possibility of totally failing to speak the same language as the DUP. Too many Tories seem to think they are Unionists, so are we. They fear and oppose Corbyn, so do we. They want Brexit, so do we.
    And therefore everything will automatically be right between us.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
    "rightly"

    Dear fucking god

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    Do you think £39.90 will be enough to cover any losses you sustain from a Corbyn-led government?
    No. Would anyone benefit from a Corbyn Gov't though ?
    International Socialism?

    Russia?

    Venezuela?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Without a new general election a Corbyn government would be defeated within days on a confidence vote. The party simply doesn't have the MP numbers and you can't assume that LD and SNP MPs would give it any backing.

    Indeed. But as Corbyn wants a general election, I don't think he'd be upset at the prospect, particularly if he was able to go into it as the sitting PM.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Without a new general election a Corbyn government would be defeated within days on a confidence vote. The party simply doesn't have the MP numbers and you can't assume that LD and SNP MPs would give it any backing.

    Indeed. But as Corbyn wants a general election, I don't think he'd be upset at the prospect, particularly if he was able to go into it as the sitting PM.
    6 months confidence and supply to deliver second referendum and GE?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    Those pesky jews eh Roger

  • Since we are now in the period of greatest political uncertainty of my lifetime, I am disinclined to bet on anything that rely on any particular set of events happening, however likely or unlikely they may look.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited October 2018

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
    So people should be judged on the basis of whether they are western?
    You can't judge the primitive Arabs by the same standards as decent Western folk, Mr Booth, doncha know. I have to hand it to Roger, it takes real talent to be anti-semitic and racist in the same paragraph.

    *edit* Great article David, quite spoiled my cornflakes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Makes sense. It's easier to counter their votes on this matter (if still not actually an easy thing to get through) than the other options.

    I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
    I get the impression that all involved only have partial control of the situation and matters are coming to a head.

    Yeats could have written the Second Coming this week about Brexit and it would have seemed utterly apposite.

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
    Nah, Yeats was way too optimistic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

  • Great thread and entirely possible. Lets be honest, pretty much anything is possible at the moment. We're about to witness what happens when impossible promises splat against the wall of what is practical
  • Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
  • Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Who would benefit from a Corbyn government?

    Not the people of Rochdale.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
    So people should be judged on the basis of whether they are western?
    Curious view of Israel given that a majority of its population are descended from Jews who came or were expelled from other parts of the Middle East. It is a peculiarly Western (and ignorant) conceit that Israel consists only or mainly of the descendants of European Jews.
  • Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    It needs money, it needs time and it needs a lot of work.

    But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
  • Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    Having set aside extra funds for the NHS "there's no money left" Liam Byrne told us that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    It needs money, it needs time and it needs a lot of work.

    But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
    +1
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Students and families with students.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited October 2018

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Very good but completely depressing. It reminds me of a time when Thatcher was looking for the 'enemy within' and you knew that the value of these 'enemies' were much more laudable than the Lady Porters and General Pinochet's who she was celebrating and there was nothing you could do because her servile press were acting as her outriders.

    This is the same. A government of self serving cranks are leading a bunch of morons for the ugliest of reasons. English Nationalism.
    Is Scottish nationalism ugly? How about Welsh nationalism, French nationalism, US nationalism etc?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    Wouldn't fix the monthly recalculations of entitlements, which is firstly bureaucratic, secondly impenetrable to most, will lead to uncertainty for the self-employed, and is a nightmare when there is a five week month.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    It needs money, it needs time and it needs a lot of work.

    But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
    Not sure it is an absolute necessity. The goal of making it easier to move into work, or take on more hours, may well be highly laudable, but was any of this a necessity?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited October 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    The most obvious thing Hammond could do in the Budget is to make provision to over-turn Osbourne's nasty little insistence that it be paid in arrears. Pay it in advance - and many of the issues go away. It would buy considerable (and much-needed) good will for this Government.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Some thoughts on the Irish Brexit question

    The EU is effectively offering a Free Trade Zone to the whole of Northern Ireland. Other regions would give their eye teeth for a similar deal. It's particularly attractive for a region that doesn't have much going for it economically. The proposed checks on the way in aren't very different from other FTZs.

    Most people in Northern Ireland support the backstop. At least the parties that represent most people do. This includes the non aligned parties such as Alliance and the Greens as well as the nationalist ones. Even the UUP seems somewhat ambivalent. Only the DUP is resolutely opposed.

    The DUP are the only ones being heard, even though they are in a minority because they prop up the Conservative government and Stormont is not sitting and hence the issue isn't being debated in Northern Ireland.

    The backstop only becomes live because a faction within the Conservative party want to force divergence from the EU. This is a choice that doesn't need to be made at this point.

  • Are there some Labour MPs would would not support Corbyn for PM and abstain?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    It needs money, it needs time and it needs a lot of work.

    But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
    Not sure it is an absolute necessity. The goal of making it easier to move into work, or take on more hours, may well be highly laudable, but was any of this a necessity?
    Yep, because the existing system disincentivises work.

    That’s an entirely unsustainable system.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    The government is smaller than the economy, but is the biggest single part of it and has huge leverage on the rest.

    All governments ultimately end in failure, even Labour ones that get elected three times. I wonder if this Tory administration will do as well.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Are there some Labour MPs would would not support Corbyn for PM and abstain?

    Corbyn can expect the same support from LAB MPs as he provided when he was a backbench MP under Blair
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.

    If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...

    This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...

    Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
    I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
    Boosters and critics of Israel share a strange interest in making that country unique. Really it is very mediocre. A country that oppresses a large part of its population on ethnic grounds, but sadly not alone in that part of the world.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    Labour has generally left the economy in a better state than outgoing Tory Governments. In June 1970 the Tories inherited both a Budget Surplus and a Balance of Payments Surplus - rather than the huge Balance of Payments Deficit bequeathed to Labour in October 1964. In May 1979 Thatcher took over an economy with significantly lower inflation than Labour faced in March 1974 when Heath left office. The economy was growing, unemployment had been falling and both the Budgetary and Balance of Payments position was stronger than in 1974.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    The government is smaller than the economy, but is the biggest single part of it and has huge leverage on the rest.

    All governments ultimately end in failure, even Labour ones that get elected three times. I wonder if this Tory administration will do as well.
    It’s a conceit to say it’s the biggest part of it; it’s only so because of taxation. It doesn’t create wealth.

    That is why the economy, properly administered, can do more for people than the government.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Are there some Labour MPs would would not support Corbyn for PM and abstain?

    Corbyn can expect the same support from LAB MPs as he provided when he was a backbench MP under Blair
    :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    Labour has generally left the economy in a better state than outgoing Tory Governments. In June 1970 the Tories inherited both a Budget Surplus and a Balance of Payments Surplus - rather than the huge Balance of Payments Deficit bequeathed to Labour in October 1964. In May 1979 Thatcher took over an economy with significantly lower inflation than Labour faced in March 1974 when Heath left office. The economy was growing, unemployment had been falling and both the Budgetary and Balance of Payments position was stronger than in 1974.
    More unemployed.

    Having a job impacts us ordinary folk more than the BoP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2018
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    Labour has generally left the economy in a better state than outgoing Tory Governments. In June 1970 the Tories inherited both a Budget Surplus and a Balance of Payments Surplus - rather than the huge Balance of Payments Deficit bequeathed to Labour in October 1964. In May 1979 Thatcher took over an economy with significantly lower inflation than Labour faced in March 1974 when Heath left office. The economy was growing, unemployment had been falling and both the Budgetary and Balance of Payments position was stronger than in 1974.
    In 1997 unemployment and inflation and strikes were lower than in 1979
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    It needs money, it needs time and it needs a lot of work.

    But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
    Not sure it is an absolute necessity. The goal of making it easier to move into work, or take on more hours, may well be highly laudable, but was any of this a necessity?
    Yep, because the existing system disincentivises work.

    That’s an entirely unsustainable system.
    That seems to be the Schrodingers Tory paradox. The current welfare system disincentivises the workshy to move into work, yet we similtaneously have supposedly record employment.

    I suspect neither view holds water.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm afraid the 6-1 was reduced to 9-2 with Paddy after I plonked all £6.65 I was allowed down.

    Do you think £39.90 will be enough to cover any losses you sustain from a Corbyn-led government?
    No. Would anyone benefit from a Corbyn Gov't though ?
    International Socialism?

    Russia?

    Venezuela?

    Russia loves the Tories. #Brexit #NoArmyLeft #BreakUpTheUK
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Exactly. Who would benefit from a Corbyn government? The poor. The disabled. The millions working flat out who are flat broke. I love it when Tories bang on about the supposed immorality of Corbyn when presiding over the brutal abuse they are chosing to hurl at people too ill to defend themselves.
    Given every Labour government adds to the unemployment figures and wrecks the finances of the nation, I remain sceptical.

    Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.

    There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
    Labour has generally left the economy in a better state than outgoing Tory Governments. In June 1970 the Tories inherited both a Budget Surplus and a Balance of Payments Surplus - rather than the huge Balance of Payments Deficit bequeathed to Labour in October 1964. In May 1979 Thatcher took over an economy with significantly lower inflation than Labour faced in March 1974 when Heath left office. The economy was growing, unemployment had been falling and both the Budgetary and Balance of Payments position was stronger than in 1974.
    The scale of the mess in 2010 is extraordinary when we think about it. About £140 billion deficit. This wasn’t just money splurged on new highways and schools. This was an expansion of the state and the people that worked for it. A structural deficit.

    We had record spending, but not the taxes to fund it. Labour revelled in how difficult it would be for w government to reign back public spending.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    The most obvious thing Hammond could do in the Budget is to make provision to over-turn Osbourne's nasty little insistence that it be paid in arrears. Pay it in advance - and many of the issues go away. It would buy considerable (and much-needed) good will for this Government.
    Indeed. And since most take an advance anyway...instead of deducting any monies owed from the first payment leaving people short, why not deduct from the last payment?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Are there some Labour MPs would would not support Corbyn for PM and abstain?

    Corbyn can expect the same support from LAB MPs as he provided when he was a backbench MP under Blair
    Until Momentum deselect those LAB MPs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    The most obvious thing Hammond could do in the Budget is to make provision to over-turn Osbourne's nasty little insistence that it be paid in arrears. Pay it in advance - and many of the issues go away. It would buy considerable (and much-needed) good will for this Government.
    There are other problems - like forcing the 2 million or so already on benefits to reapply, rather than just moving them across to the new system, which was, after all, forced on them.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    DUP getting shafted, and a united Ireland within the EU would be so funny, it'd almost be worth the price of having a Corbyn-led Government. Eire's positions on gay marriage and abortion would, of course, have to be extended to the North. Come on Arlene ...

    If there was a Corbyn led government there would be no hard border in Ireland and polls show Northern Ireland would comfortably vote then to still stay in the UK even if there was a border poll
    HYFud any doubt on the migration of millions on to Universal Credit ?

    You seem a sensible conservative.
    Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
    Especially dealing with severely disabled children.

    I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
    Hope he takes note.
    Is the system reformable with a few billion increase in budgeting ?
    (Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)

    One or two of us on here have been warning about UC for months and months.

    The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.

    That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
    UC will ensure it always pays to work more than 16 hours a week and the Tories are setting house building targets from across the country through Local Plans
This discussion has been closed.