Whatever else she has done wrong in the Brexit process, including waiting wsy too long to decide what to ask for, May can truthfully say that over the last few months she really has tried. She's accepted concessions, she has tried to sell a climbdown to her party in the face of huge opposition, so she hasn't simply been bloody minded and not played ball.
I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:
Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.
It looks like the negotiation has run its course and is essentially at take it or leave it. No-one knows what to do if we leave it, so I'm guessing once the situation has sunk into people's minds we will take it. There could however be delay and significant chaos before we do so.
Every deal needs it crisis point. Its in the nature of things.
That is always the view of the extremist. The pain will be worth the eventual utopia. It is the credo of the psychopathic
We can take from that you havent done much negotiation.
Haha, that is really very funny, but sadly I can't reveal why. Keep reading the war comics, I need to go to work. Taking rise out of semi-literate Brexit fanatics can be entertaining, but it doesn't pay the bills. Hande hoch Fritz
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead. Brilliant result for the greens
yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.
It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.
When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.
You could conversely argue that FPTP keeps the extremists out of UK politics. Your sane centre had a huge run of governmentfor the last 3 decades on its back. They are only out of office because they got smug
FPTP fossilises the party names, but not the policies. Corbyn is Melanchon not Blair, and Boris is that Italian clown.
to some extent Doc Fox. The policies change in line with the national mood.But we are at a caesura in Labour due to the change in membership which has put Corbyn in place. If his wing consolidate their hold on the party then I see no easy way back for the centrists.
Yes, and the Tories are the mirror image. If only Vince wasn't so useless...
Dr. Foxy, Corbyn marches with banners of Stalin and Lenin. Has May ever marched with banners of Hitler?
The current party of government could be politely described as mediocre. The main party of opposition is so delightful Jews are actively considering whether to leave the country if Labour win the next election.
I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:
Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.
If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:
a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for. Or b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.
.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.
Yes. Everyone talks about how things will just get fudged in the end; surely this weekend was another example of how you just can't spread fudge over legal and constitutional arrangements.
In regards to the OP, what would make sense is that the UK agrees with the EU that there is not going to be an agreement on the backstop and suggests a six month delay in Brexit so everyone can get organised. It would make sense and I think leavers will accept a delay if the point is to prepare, rather than just hold more negotiations that will not get anywhere.
Can't see the EU accepting however.
The most knowable known unknown is the EU's likelihood to give in (fudge). If past track record is anything to go by (eg according to Nick P) this is the area that will give.
What the cabinet crisis meetings etc have made clear is that there is a point beyond which May cannot deliver, even if she wanted to. Specifically, she cannot deliver a deal that gives regulatory control over Northern Ireland to the EU. The DUP won't accept it and neither, more importantly, will her party.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead. Brilliant result for the greens
yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.
It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.
When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.
You could conversely argue that FPTP keeps the extremists out of UK politics. Your sane centre had a huge run of governmentfor the last 3 decades on its back. They are only out of office because they got smug
FPTP fossilises the party names, but not the policies. Corbyn is Melanchon not Blair, and Boris is that Italian clown.
to some extent Doc Fox. The policies change in line with the national mood.But we are at a caesura in Labour due to the change in membership which has put Corbyn in place. If his wing consolidate their hold on the party then I see no easy way back for the centrists.
Yes, and the Tories are the mirror image. If only Vince wasn't so useless...
the Tories I thinbk have a different problem. They will be harder to infiltrate for a start. They have a much deeper problem which is what do they stand for, whats the actual point of the Conservatives ? Currently they dont have much going for them by way of leaders and they have no overriding mission to hold party unity.
I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:
Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.
If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:
a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for. Or b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.
.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.
Yes. Everyone talks about how things will just get fudged in the end; surely this weekend was another example of how you just can't spread fudge over legal and constitutional arrangements.
In regards to the OP, what would make sense is that the UK agrees with the EU that there is not going to be an agreement on the backstop and suggests a six month delay in Brexit so everyone can get organised. It would make sense and I think leavers will accept a delay if the point is to prepare, rather than just hold more negotiations that will not get anywhere.
Can't see the EU accepting however.
The most knowable known unknown is the EU's likelihood to give in (fudge). If past track record is anything to go by (eg according to Nick P) this is the area that will give.
I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:
Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.
If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:
a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for. Or b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.
.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.
Yes. Everyone talks about how things will just get fudged in the end; surely this weekend was another example of how you just can't spread fudge over legal and constitutional arrangements.
In regards to the OP, what would make sense is that the UK agrees with the EU that there is not going to be an agreement on the backstop and suggests a six month delay in Brexit so everyone can get organised. It would make sense and I think leavers will accept a delay if the point is to prepare, rather than just hold more negotiations that will not get anywhere.
Can't see the EU accepting however.
The most knowable known unknown is the EU's likelihood to give in (fudge). If past track record is anything to go by (eg according to Nick P) this is the area that will give.
I go with that Mr T. The recent push for a deal by the EU indicates they think they have a good position for their side. From here on in their risk is failure to cement the deal, no deal and the Commission look bad to the heads of government as they have made few preparations for a fall out. Sitting on our hands might be the best thing atm.
What the cabinet crisis meetings etc have made clear is that there is a point beyond which May cannot deliver, even if she wanted to. Specifically, she cannot deliver a deal that gives regulatory control over Northern Ireland to the EU. The DUP won't accept it and neither, more importantly, will her party.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
What the cabinet crisis meetings etc have made clear is that there is a point beyond which May cannot deliver, even if she wanted to. Specifically, she cannot deliver a deal that gives regulatory control over Northern Ireland to the EU. The DUP won't accept it and neither, more importantly, will her party.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
So the EU is sticking to negotiating in bad faith, and is putting us on notice it will keep us hooked into the EU, by continuing to negotiate in bad faith until the clock runs down.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
There's no guarantee option 3 leads to a stable government - we could be in an even bigger mess than we are now.
If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).
Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.
Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.
If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability
I’m struggling to think of any posts you’ve contributed on here where you sound like a Tory.
Guess we’ll have to take your word for it.
I have seen quite a few. Brexit is not the entirety of politics, and a significant minority of Tory members and voters are pro-Remain.
Both BigG and I are Tory members who voted Remain but will accept Brexit but only with a Deal
What the cabinet crisis meetings etc have made clear is that there is a point beyond which May cannot deliver, even if she wanted to. Specifically, she cannot deliver a deal that gives regulatory control over Northern Ireland to the EU. The DUP won't accept it and neither, more importantly, will her party.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
Interesting. Can she find a solution?
Cant see it myself, however it will be more interesting to see just how screwed Ireland is if there is a no deal. I just cant see Ireland being ready for a messy split and this is all in the context of FG and FF want to go to the polls soon but cant unless Brexit is out of the way.
What the cabinet crisis meetings etc have made clear is that there is a point beyond which May cannot deliver, even if she wanted to. Specifically, she cannot deliver a deal that gives regulatory control over Northern Ireland to the EU. The DUP won't accept it and neither, more importantly, will her party.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
The DUP’s Brexit spokesperson has said the party believes a no-deal Brexit is "probably inevitable"......
Mr Wilson also warned of dire economic consequences for Ireland and accused Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tanaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney of encouraging the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to "take a hard line".
He said he thinks there will be a "day of reckoning for the Irish politicians who so foolishly are walking the Irish economy into a disaster by pushing the EU into taking this intransigent stance".
DUP leader Arlene Foster is due to have separate meetings with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin in Dublin today.
Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.
The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.
I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them
The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.
Not if there was a Remain vote before March 2019 as Brexit would be cancelled and we would not actually Leave.
It is No Deal that cannot be sold to the electorate, No Deal is the only way we Remain
Not according to the European Commission.
According to the Austrian Ambassador and the EU if a Remain vote before March 2019 Article 50 can be reversed and we will not Leave
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
There's no guarantee option 3 leads to a stable government - we could be in an even bigger mess than we are now.
Oh sure, just like 2017 didn't deliver a stable government either. But what I was trying to set out is circumstances in which Brexit would be delayed past the current end date. So long as this government has some form of control that will not happen. It would require them to lose control first.
Whatever else she has done wrong in the Brexit process, including waiting wsy too long to decide what to ask for, May can truthfully say that over the last few months she really has tried. She's accepted concessions, she has tried to sell a climbdown to her party in the face of huge opposition, so she hasn't simply been bloody minded and not played ball.
Disagree. All May has done is act as a conduit for the EU to tell Britain what the EU will and will not accept. Brexit has been all about her willingness to make concessions, for which she has received no quid pro quo from the EU, and her trying to browbeat her party into accepting them. That is not what I call trying.
So at which point does May rock up to the Commons and say "our negotiations have failed, the policy of this government is to leave with No Deal". And then when the myriad government reports detailing how this would be catastrophic are quoted back what does she say - "will of the people"?
It sounds like the Goebbels line in Downfall where he says the German people voted Nazi and now they will have their throats slit. MPs will not sit there and accept No Deal. They will pass a measure requiring the government not to stop the talks and find a deal. Aside from the congenitally stupid MPs know what No Deal means - and what the electoral impact will be when the "why can't we just leave already" members of the public find themselves unemployed and hungry.
If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).
Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.
Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.
If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability
I think the end result could be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM thanks to SNP confidence and supply and LD support bill by bill and the whole UK stays in the Customs Union and the Single Market which the SNP and LDs will make a condition of their support to keep Labour in power
Yes, but he may not get "confidence and supply" from his own MPs! (hopefully)
Corbyn's own MPs or the vast majority of them would accept the whole UK staying in the single market and customs union rather than No Deal
Not if EUref2 before next March if No Deal and Remain wins
How do the timescales work for another referendum before March?
They don’t.
But this is another one of HYUFD’s hobby horses that he’ll go quiet on soon enough, like Hunt will never succeed May or Boris is nailed on to replace May.
Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.
The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.
I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them
The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.
Not if there was a Remain vote before March 2019 as Brexit would be cancelled and we would not actually Leave.
It is No Deal that cannot be sold to the electorate, No Deal is the only way we Remain
I see little appetite for another referendum amongst the electorate.
Not if EUref2 before next March if No Deal and Remain wins
How do the timescales work for another referendum before March?
They don’t.
But this is another one of HYUFD’s hobby horses that he’ll go quiet on soon enough, like Hunt will never succeed May or Boris is nailed on to replace May.
No Deal has -33% approval with ICM and Remain beats No Deal 55% to 45% with Yougov. If it looks like No Deal in November there are 4 months to hold EUref2 before Brexit Day.
No Deal is unsustainable with such opposition, otherwise Parliament will vote for the Norway option ultimately
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
If it is Monday, this must be Dublin.... it sounds like Arlene is doing the rounds and putting her position across. It is quite something when the DUP looks more competent than the Tories.
Not if EUref2 before next March if No Deal and Remain wins
How do the timescales work for another referendum before March?
They don’t.
But this is another one of HYUFD’s hobby horses that he’ll go quiet on soon enough, like Hunt will never succeed May or Boris is nailed on to replace May.
No Deal has -33% approval with ICM and Remain beats No Deal 55% to 45% with Yougov. If it looks like No Deal in November there are 4 months to hold EUref2 before Brexit Day.
No Deal is unsustainable with such opposition, otherwise Parliament will vote for the Norway option ultimately
Opinion polls don’t have an impact on Parliamentary rules and procedures.
Plus your scenario requires the support of at least 150 Labour MPs.
They may prefer to topple the government and then deliver their own Brexit.
When you read the second tweet you realise just what a balls-up the DUP made when they backed Brexit.
no doubt they have made miscalculations, not least with their own supporters most of whom still want no border. But it is remarkable that here we are and London Dublin and Brussels are all trying to get the immovable rock to move. every day from here in there is a reward for intransigence, What is the end price ? Fk knows
If there is a confirmed no deal situation, is there a Commons mechanism for a referendum to be brought about?
With a bad deal (or, indeed, any deal) there's the potential for Grieve's 'meaningful vote' amendment to come into play. But, and this isn't my area, I suspect no deal means no votes.
Not if EUref2 before next March if No Deal and Remain wins
How do the timescales work for another referendum before March?
They don’t.
But this is another one of HYUFD’s hobby horses that he’ll go quiet on soon enough, like Hunt will never succeed May or Boris is nailed on to replace May.
It will be interesting to see the respone to the #peoplesvote rally on Saturday. It all feels like it is coming to a boil.
Having No Deal and no referendum would be pretty toxic for the government. Brittania is becoming a failed state.
Article 15 looks like it does not necessarily refer to Northern Ireland solely. It could looking at the literal text also refer to the whole of the United Kingdom.
If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).
Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.
Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.
If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability
I think the end result could be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM thanks to SNP confidence and supply and LD support bill by bill and the whole UK stays in the Customs Union and the Single Market which the SNP and LDs will make a condition of their support to keep Labour in power
I doubt very much whether Corbyn will be allowed to rely on a SNP confidence and supply. Too many Labour people around who distrust the SNP. Apart from which, confidence in the SNP leadership from the hardcore members (approx. 40%) is slipping as Sturgeon flip flops on iRef2.
Andrea Jenkyns: "It is better to go down fighting and honouring the democratic decision of our British people". What an utter tool. I don't remember "go down fighting" on the ballot paper. Or in the campaign. Or ever talked about.
And what is she advocating? Specifically? What does "go down" mean - the end of jobs? A viable economy? Food and medicines readily available? She thinks the people of Morley will thank her for that?
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).
In all seriousness, people tend to blame everyone involved when things go wrong, and the theme of incompetence and malevolence on both sides is easy to get traction.
Whatever else she has done wrong in the Brexit process, including waiting wsy too long to decide what to ask for, May can truthfully say that over the last few months she really has tried. She's accepted concessions, she has tried to sell a climbdown to her party in the face of huge opposition, so she hasn't simply been bloody minded and not played ball.
Disagree. All May has done is act as a conduit for the EU to tell Britain what the EU will and will not accept. Brexit has been all about her willingness to make concessions, for which she has received no quid pro quo from the EU, and her trying to browbeat her party into accepting them. That is not what I call trying.
Not to say it won't happen but since when has leaving a club given the leaving member the right to change the rules of that club?
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
If it is Monday, this must be Dublin.... it sounds like Arlene is doing the rounds and putting her position across. It is quite something when the DUP looks more competent than the Tories.
As I have said before they should have let Nigel Dodds lead the negotiations as hed have done a much better job than DD.
I make that our genial host and @AlastairMeeks are now on different sides of this bet.
I zeroed out a while back when I grew concerned about the possibility of no deal (see above). I still think a deal will happen (and that will in practice mean on time IMO), in which case I collect a tidy sum.
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
If it is Monday, this must be Dublin.... it sounds like Arlene is doing the rounds and putting her position across. It is quite something when the DUP looks more competent than the Tories.
There is an interesting counterfactual about how this might have played out if May had won 20 more seats last year (or indeed not been so stupid as to have the election in the first place). Even then, I think the back stop would have been unacceptable to a large minority of the Tory party but the way the Parliamentary arithmetic worked out has given Arlene Foster far more power than 10 MPs would normally hold.
Andrea Jenkyns: "It is better to go down fighting and honouring the democratic decision of our British people". What an utter tool. I don't remember "go down fighting" on the ballot paper. Or in the campaign. Or ever talked about.
And what is she advocating? Specifically? What does "go down" mean - the end of jobs? A viable economy? Food and medicines readily available? She thinks the people of Morley will thank her for that?
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
I make that our genial host and @AlastairMeeks are now on different sides of this bet.
I zeroed out a while back when I grew concerned about the possibility of no deal (see above). I still think a deal will happen (and that will in practice mean on time IMO), in which case I collect a tidy sum.
Ah same position (Though I suspect with a much larger green!) as me then.
Mr. Meeks, Thermopylae being a heroic strategic victory, albeit total tactical defeat, for a smaller power resisting the imperialist advances of a larger one
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Andrea Jenkyns: "It is better to go down fighting and honouring the democratic decision of our British people". What an utter tool. I don't remember "go down fighting" on the ballot paper. Or in the campaign. Or ever talked about.
And what is she advocating? Specifically? What does "go down" mean - the end of jobs? A viable economy? Food and medicines readily available? She thinks the people of Morley will thank her for that?
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
And to think such a muppet replaced Ed Balls. I was never his greatest fan but by comparison to her he’s a giant.
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Of course
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
I make that our genial host and @AlastairMeeks are now on different sides of this bet.
I zeroed out a while back when I grew concerned about the possibility of no deal (see above). I still think a deal will happen (and that will in practice mean on time IMO), in which case I collect a tidy sum.
Ah same position (Though I suspect with a much larger green!) as me then.
As @rcs1000 says, it's always better news to see a row. I got worried when everyone was saying what good progress was being made.
The danger now is not that a deal can't be agreed but that the deal can't be sold to the key stakeholders.
Andrea Jenkyns: "It is better to go down fighting and honouring the democratic decision of our British people". What an utter tool. I don't remember "go down fighting" on the ballot paper. Or in the campaign. Or ever talked about.
And what is she advocating? Specifically? What does "go down" mean - the end of jobs? A viable economy? Food and medicines readily available? She thinks the people of Morley will thank her for that?
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
And to think such a muppet replaced Ed Balls. I was never his greatest fan but by comparison to her he’s a giant.
To add to her chances she is married to an MP in Bristol and lives with him in London.
Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.
Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.
If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability
I’m struggling to think of any posts you’ve contributed on here where you sound like a Tory.
Guess we’ll have to take your word for it.
I have seen quite a few. Brexit is not the entirety of politics, and a significant minority of Tory members and voters are pro-Remain.
Both BigG and I are Tory members who voted Remain but will accept Brexit but only with a Deal
Depending on which side is being more obstreperous, I'm oscillating between:
1. We voted Leave so we should leave. The EU is being deliberately unhelpful and if we can't do a deal on sensible terms then we shouldn't do a deal at all. We certainly shouldn't just sign up to whatever the EU puts in front of us because of the blackmail of an induced No Deal, and while we're at it, if they're going to take a Trump-like transactional zero-sum attitude to it, let's throw in Nato membership and intelligence co-operation to the mix, and see how that affects thinking on the Baltic;
and
2. FFS, 48% voted Remain, almost certainly 60%+ would be happy with some form of Single Market arrangement, there'd probably be a majority for Remain now in a re-run of the first vote, and it'd be bloody stupid to go for a deeply damaging Crash Brexit, which of itself has slimmish support (and support which would probably ebb away once the reality hit), over an outcome people would on balance prefer. Let's sign up to EEA, which at least honours the letter of EURef1 while protecting co-operation, trade and growth.
Currently leaning towards (2), though if Martin Selmayr manages to upset me more than Andrea Jenkyns (what is it about people with silly Ys in their name?), that could flip again.
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Of course
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
As the World's most popular politician I think she an be trusted to make the right decision.
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Of course
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
As the World's most popular politician I think she an be trusted to make the right decision.
Unfortanately for her Germany doesnt share the worlds view
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Of course
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
As the World's most popular politician I think she an be trusted to make the right decision.
Isn't that Salvini with his 50% approval ratings (In a multi party system !) ?
after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.
The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.
I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?
was it said by Mr Merkel ?
german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.
Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?
Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.
meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.
Three years left....I remember when a TV interviewer said to Francois Mitterand that only 15% of the electorate approved of him and he replied 'As I'm here for the next 4 years that's their problem not mine'
Of course
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
As the World's most popular politician I think she an be trusted to make the right decision.
Unfortanately for her Germany doesnt share the worlds view
Thatcher was much more admired abroad than at home. I remember watching TV in the US once and when she was interviewed the clarity and adamantine certainty with which she expressed herself stood in stark contrast to the focus-grouped sound bite mush US politicians trotted out...
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
And to think such a muppet replaced Ed Balls. I was never his greatest fan but by comparison to her he’s a giant.
Gerry Rafferty / Stealer's Wheel had it almost perfect
Muppets on the right of us, Spineless on the left, Here I am Stuck in the middle with EU
And now, some quality music on this grey Monday morning
[Warning: contains hairy 70s dudes and disgusting eating habits]
After I had bid everyone good night I listened to 5 live as I often do and the host was Stephen Nolan who of course comes from Belfast.
He interviewed Andrew Bridgen over the Irish border and it was the most embarrassing car crash interview I have heard from a conservative mp. He said the English were entiled to apply for Irish passports and then compounded it by saying Irish citizens living in Ireland could vote in GB elections.
Nolan, in utter disbelief, took him apart and Bridgen hung up. A discussion followed with Irish commentators who condemned Bridgen's utter lack of knowledge of Irish issues and not only the horlicks he made of the passports and voting rights but his utter shambles in describing how a border could be avoided when the UK leaves the EU. He was scrambling for credible suggestions and all the time sinking deeper into the mire.
A conservative telephoned in to say how ashamed he was over Bridgen's ignorance and to be honest I could hardly listen to the programme with a conservative mp taking such a shellacking on the media.
He needs to be kept away from any media interviews for his own sake and my party
Recommend anyone interested should catch up on Nolan 5 live show last night
I'm amazed that a royal baby has been planned for after Brexit what with pestilence and plague sweeping the nation.
The plan* is for the baby to be born in the USA, so will be a natural born citizen. In a few decades time then we have a Royal POTUS.
*or so some bloke on twitter says...
The yanks would love a POTUS Windsor.
Wouldn't they have to renounce all royal titles (and UK citizenship) to be eligible? Surely otherwise it's a prima facie case of allegiance to a foreign prince or potentate?
If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).
Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.
Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.
If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability
I’m struggling to think of any posts you’ve contributed on here where you sound like a Tory.
Guess we’ll have to take your word for it.
I have seen quite a few. Brexit is not the entirety of politics, and a significant minority of Tory members and voters are pro-Remain.
Both BigG and I are Tory members who voted Remain but will accept Brexit but only with a Deal
I'm amazed that a royal baby has been planned for after Brexit what with pestilence and plague sweeping the nation.
The plan* is for the baby to be born in the USA, so will be a natural born citizen. In a few decades time then we have a Royal POTUS.
*or so some bloke on twitter says...
The yanks would love a POTUS Windsor.
Wouldn't they have to renounce all royal titles (and UK citizenship) to be eligible? Surely otherwise it's a prima facie case of allegiance to a foreign prince or potentate?
Not unless they were the Duke/Duchess of Washington.
After I had bid everyone good night I listened to 5 live as I often do and the host was Stephen Nolan who of course comes from Belfast.
He interviewed Andrew Bridgen over the Irish border and it was the most embarrassing car crash interview I have heard from a conservative mp. He said the English were entiled to apply for Irish passports and then compounded it by saying Irish citizens living in Ireland could vote in GB elections.
Nolan, in utter disbelief, took him apart and Bridgen hung up. A discussion followed with Irish commentators who condemned Bridgen's utter lack of knowledge of Irish issues and not only the horlicks he made of the passports and voting rights but his utter shambles in describing how a border could be avoided when the UK leaves the EU. He was scrambling for credible suggestions and all the time sinking deeper into the mire.
A conservative telephoned in to say how ashamed he was over Bridgen's ignorance and to be honest I could hardly listen to the programme with a conservative mp taking such a shellacking on the media.
He needs to be kept away from any media interviews for his own sake and my party
Recommend anyone interested should catch up on Nolan 5 live show last night
ERG doesn't seem to do a lot of actual research does it?
Arlene Foster meets Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar today.
If it is Monday, this must be Dublin.... it sounds like Arlene is doing the rounds and putting her position across. It is quite something when the DUP looks more competent than the Tories.
There is an interesting counterfactual about how this might have played out if May had won 20 more seats last year (or indeed not been so stupid as to have the election in the first place). Even then, I think the back stop would have been unacceptable to a large minority of the Tory party but the way the Parliamentary arithmetic worked out has given Arlene Foster far more power than 10 MPs would normally hold.
This. The backstop is not a problem because of the DUP. I don't think many Tory MPs are actually prepared to back it. The problem May had in Cabinet last week was not a bunch of Brexiteers; it was pretty much the whole Cabinet telling her that she could not sell a permanent backstop (based on the Shipman version, at least).
The problem is that May is utterly incompetent. She briefed Robbins to negotiate something for which she had no Cabinet approval and which her coalition partner was bound to reject. Seriously, who does that?
Before clicking, I thought there was a very high likelihood that he had been misquoted/misunderstood. I was wrong.
Why do they keep letting this ignorant twat go on the radio?
They may have assumed he couldn't tie his shoe laces so wouldn't get out of the house...
Of course technically if he were to move to Ireland (no restriction), take up residence (no restriction) and live there for five years (no restriction) he could apply for Irish citizenship and an Irish passport. But I very much doubt thats what he meant.
In judging the likelihood of a delayed Brexit it is worth considering things from the other side for a moment.
At present the EU have:
* 2 increasingly fascist governments in Poland and Hungary who are refusing to comply with the democratic norms of the club and are in the process of removing their independent judiciary.
* An Italian government that has set a budget unacceptable to the ECB as it increases yet further their unsustainable debt ratios.
* Greece still in the land of make believe with no one accepting the bill for the inevitable default. This land is not sunshine and roses, however, it is an economic disaster.
* A changing of the guard in Germany as the main rock of stability for the last decade edges towards the door.
* An increasing crisis in France as Macron is finding walking on water involves getting seriously wet leaving the EU as leaderless as it has ever been.
In an ideal world the EU would have liked the UK to pay a constructive role in dealing with many of these problems but instead they are a source of yet further problems by insisting on Brexit, significantly reducing the available budget, materially reducing the EU's economic weight internationally and threatening a recession by substantially reducing exports at a time of weak demand.
The EU simply cannot be paralysed by Brexit for another 6 months to a year. There is simply too much else needing attention. I think they will want this done.
Nonetheless, congrats to them. Whether it is newsworthy or not, a baby on the way is a time of excitement and nerves for any couple, royal or otherwise.
Comments
Is what we voted for.
The current party of government could be politely described as mediocre. The main party of opposition is so delightful Jews are actively considering whether to leave the country if Labour win the next election.
Pretending they're the same is ridiculous.
So Raab went off to Brussels yesterday to explain that this was just not possible. No doubt the EU representatives who thought that they were moving towards a deal on this basis were disappointed. They (and Eire) now have to decide whether they are willing to let the deal fail on this basis and, if so, what they do next.
There are 3 options that I see:
1. Eire gives the ok to the EU to drop the backstop condition or the majority of the EU decide that they are going to do so anyway. So far there has been very little sign of the latter.
2. The EU refuse to shift in which case a deal is not possible and the focus has to be on how no deal can be mitigated.
3. The UK government, faced with a no deal scenario, collapses and the UK asks for more time to get a new government who have majority support in the Commons for what they want.
Only the third of these could lead to a postponement of Brexit. It's possible but I don't agree that there is a better than 35% chance. It requires a lot of turkeys to vote for Christmas.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6275811/amp/PETER-OBORNE-former-Brexit-Secretary-David-Davis-job-not-mess.html
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051721579401490432
Now they have pissed that away, there isn't much left.
https://twitter.com/telegraphnews/status/1051740985900900352?s=21
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1051743462767386624?s=21
Foxtrot Oscar.
Mr Wilson also warned of dire economic consequences for Ireland and accused Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tanaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney of encouraging the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to "take a hard line".
He said he thinks there will be a "day of reckoning for the Irish politicians who so foolishly are walking the Irish economy into a disaster by pushing the EU into taking this intransigent stance".
DUP leader Arlene Foster is due to have separate meetings with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin in Dublin today.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1015/1003178-arlene-foster/
It sounds like the Goebbels line in Downfall where he says the German people voted Nazi and now they will have their throats slit. MPs will not sit there and accept No Deal. They will pass a measure requiring the government not to stop the talks and find a deal. Aside from the congenitally stupid MPs know what No Deal means - and what the electoral impact will be when the "why can't we just leave already" members of the public find themselves unemployed and hungry.
I was wrong.
But this is another one of HYUFD’s hobby horses that he’ll go quiet on soon enough, like Hunt will never succeed May or Boris is nailed on to replace May.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/97494/half-brits-want-second-brexit-referendum-if-no-deal-agreed
No Deal is unsustainable with such opposition, otherwise Parliament will vote for the Norway option ultimately
Plus your scenario requires the support of at least 150 Labour MPs.
They may prefer to topple the government and then deliver their own Brexit.
With a bad deal (or, indeed, any deal) there's the potential for Grieve's 'meaningful vote' amendment to come into play. But, and this isn't my area, I suspect no deal means no votes.
Having No Deal and no referendum would be pretty toxic for the government. Brittania is becoming a failed state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBbRcnPeaLQ.
And what is she advocating? Specifically? What does "go down" mean - the end of jobs? A viable economy? Food and medicines readily available? She thinks the people of Morley will thank her for that?
Its some kind of psychosis. Having offered people a better future if they vote to leave they seem insistent that people voted to destroy all they currently have. That national triumph would be national ruin. Because in "go down fighting" she isn't even in denial about what is to come. She knows it will be a catastrophe, but somehow thinks this self-inflicted catastrophe will make people wave the flag and vote Conservative in gratitude. She has a majority of 2,104
In all seriousness, people tend to blame everyone involved when things go wrong, and the theme of incompetence and malevolence on both sides is easy to get traction.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1051748114309234688
If you don’t know what a ‘Prince Albert’ is then don’t google it.
Yes I’m aware that Albert is one of Prince Henry’s middle names.
but some in the CDU think thats all the time their party has left :-)
they will eed to pick a newnew leader and give some bedding in time, So does Angie look for a high and go of her own accord or does she get booted ?
The danger now is not that a deal can't be agreed but that the deal can't be sold to the key stakeholders.
https://twitter.com/mrmarksteel/status/1051735286479245313
1. We voted Leave so we should leave. The EU is being deliberately unhelpful and if we can't do a deal on sensible terms then we shouldn't do a deal at all. We certainly shouldn't just sign up to whatever the EU puts in front of us because of the blackmail of an induced No Deal, and while we're at it, if they're going to take a Trump-like transactional zero-sum attitude to it, let's throw in Nato membership and intelligence co-operation to the mix, and see how that affects thinking on the Baltic;
and
2. FFS, 48% voted Remain, almost certainly 60%+ would be happy with some form of Single Market arrangement, there'd probably be a majority for Remain now in a re-run of the first vote, and it'd be bloody stupid to go for a deeply damaging Crash Brexit, which of itself has slimmish support (and support which would probably ebb away once the reality hit), over an outcome people would on balance prefer. Let's sign up to EEA, which at least honours the letter of EURef1 while protecting co-operation, trade and growth.
Currently leaning towards (2), though if Martin Selmayr manages to upset me more than Andrea Jenkyns (what is it about people with silly Ys in their name?), that could flip again.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1051749399154573318
*or so some bloke on twitter says...
King may be worth a punt too
https://twitter.com/ned_donovan/status/1051753149512335361?s=21
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1051753517034196993?s=21
https://twitter.com/ned_donovan/status/1051753840587022338?s=21
Gerry Rafferty / Stealer's Wheel had it almost perfect
Muppets on the right of us,
Spineless on the left,
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with EU
And now, some quality music on this grey Monday morning
[Warning: contains hairy 70s dudes and disgusting eating habits]
https://youtu.be/DohRa9lsx0Q
He interviewed Andrew Bridgen over the Irish border and it was the most embarrassing car crash interview I have heard from a conservative mp. He said the English were entiled to apply for Irish passports and then compounded it by saying Irish citizens living in Ireland could vote in GB elections.
Nolan, in utter disbelief, took him apart and Bridgen hung up. A discussion followed with Irish commentators who condemned Bridgen's utter lack of knowledge of Irish issues and not only the horlicks he made of the passports and voting rights but his utter shambles in describing how a border could be avoided when the UK leaves the EU. He was scrambling for credible suggestions and all the time sinking deeper into the mire.
A conservative telephoned in to say how ashamed he was over Bridgen's ignorance and to be honest I could hardly listen to the programme with a conservative mp taking such a shellacking on the media.
He needs to be kept away from any media interviews for his own sake and my party
Recommend anyone interested should catch up on Nolan 5 live show last night
Albeit Washington in Sunderland.
The problem is that May is utterly incompetent. She briefed Robbins to negotiate something for which she had no Cabinet approval and which her coalition partner was bound to reject. Seriously, who does that?
Of course technically if he were to move to Ireland (no restriction), take up residence (no restriction) and live there for five years (no restriction) he could apply for Irish citizenship and an Irish passport. But I very much doubt thats what he meant.
He might like to reflect on why he keeps getting invited on though.
At present the EU have:
* 2 increasingly fascist governments in Poland and Hungary who are refusing to comply with the democratic norms of the club and are in the process of removing their independent judiciary.
* An Italian government that has set a budget unacceptable to the ECB as it increases yet further their unsustainable debt ratios.
* Greece still in the land of make believe with no one accepting the bill for the inevitable default. This land is not sunshine and roses, however, it is an economic disaster.
* A changing of the guard in Germany as the main rock of stability for the last decade edges towards the door.
* An increasing crisis in France as Macron is finding walking on water involves getting seriously wet leaving the EU as leaderless as it has ever been.
In an ideal world the EU would have liked the UK to pay a constructive role in dealing with many of these problems but instead they are a source of yet further problems by insisting on Brexit, significantly reducing the available budget, materially reducing the EU's economic weight internationally and threatening a recession by substantially reducing exports at a time of weak demand.
The EU simply cannot be paralysed by Brexit for another 6 months to a year. There is simply too much else needing attention. I think they will want this done.
Nonetheless, congrats to them. Whether it is newsworthy or not, a baby on the way is a time of excitement and nerves for any couple, royal or otherwise.
https://twitter.com/SkyBet/status/1051755701624889344