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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!

  • There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.
    There is another option. If parliament accepts that the deal is non-negotiable with the EU but cannot accept it itself, then it can put that deal to the people against another option. Then, having obtained a specific mandate from the people, parliament can enact the chosen option, whether it's ratifying the deal or revoking article 50.
    You mean ask the people to accept the NI backstop in a referendum? Possible but surely incredibly reckless for a Unionist party. I don't see the public approving it.

    Personally, I think Parliament either fulfil the referendum result by leaving with no deal, or they should vote to withdraw A50. I don't think they have the guts to overturn Brexit.

    I don't think there will be a referendum because nobody would be able to agree to hold it or what the question should be. But if it was "Remain because the only way to leave is cut off NI"; or Leave anyway, Leave would win by a mile.

    You could just ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they were prepared to accept the backstop.

    I suspect they would

    but how are you going to get SF back to Stormont to get the ball rolling ?

    The UK government can hold a refeendum in Northern Ireland. It doesn’t need Stormont to do it.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support its own car industry with a population hitting 50 m
    were well past that

    car plants tend to be profitable at 250k units per annum

    on current performance the UK could justify another 3-4 car plants quite easily, especially if HMG went fishing for them - automotive is one of the biggest holes in our BoP

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2018

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet, and gills.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.
    There is another option. If parliament accepts that the deal is non-negotiable with the EU but cannot accept it itself, then it can put that deal to the people against another option. Then, having obtained a specific mandate from the people, parliament can enact the chosen option, whether it's ratifying the deal or revoking article 50.
    You mean ask the people to accept the NI backstop in a referendum? Possible but surely incredibly reckless for a Unionist party. I don't see the public approving it.

    Personally, I think Parliament either fulfil the referendum result by leaving with no deal, or they should vote to withdraw A50. I don't think they have the guts to overturn Brexit.

    I don't think there will be a referendum because nobody would be able to agree to hold it or what the question should be. But if it was "Remain because the only way to leave is cut off NI"; or Leave anyway, Leave would win by a mile.

    You could just ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they were prepared to accept the backstop.

    I suspect they would

    but how are you going to get SF back to Stormont to get the ball rolling ?

    The UK government can hold a refeendum in Northern Ireland. It doesn’t need Stormont to do it.

    of course but it would be stupid to do so
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet and gills.
    Cambridgeshire, not Norfolk then!

  • There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up without the approval of Parliament.


  • Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support its own car industry with a population hitting 50 m
    were well past that

    car plants tend to be profitable at 250k units per annum

    on current performance the UK could justify another 3-4 car plants quite easily, especially if HMG went fishing for them - automotive is one of the biggest holes in our BoP

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would the UK government provide huge, ongoing subsidies to companies so they can build factories in the UK where all the work is done by robots?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up without the approval of Parliament.

    He could say that May messed up the negotiations and left us with this god-awful deal, win a majority and then do what he liked. (Hypothetically.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up without the approval of Parliament.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2018

    Why would the UK government provide huge, ongoing subsidies to companies so they can build factories in the UK where all the work is done by robots?

    Reasons. Eurosceptic reasons. Probably.

    EDIT: I win.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support its own car industry with a population hitting 50 m
    were well past that

    car plants tend to be profitable at 250k units per annum

    on current performance the UK could justify another 3-4 car plants quite easily, especially if HMG went fishing for them - automotive is one of the biggest holes in our BoP

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would the UK government provide huge, ongoing subsidies to companies so they can build factories in the UK where all the work is done by robots?

    subsidies are for set up, were not France
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited October 2018


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up without the approval of Parliament.

    He could say that May messed up the negotiations and left us with this god-awful deal, win a majority and then do what he liked. (Hypothetically.)
    Not if Parliament has voted for and PM May has signed a backstop for NI keeping it in the single market and customs union.

    He could only do what he liked if a technical solution had been found for the Irish border thus ending the need for the backstop or if he agreed to a GB only FTA with the EU
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    Read or read?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    ....in her early retirement.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support its own car industry with a population hitting 50 m
    were well past that

    car plants tend to be profitable at 250k units per annum

    on current performance the UK could justify another 3-4 car plants quite easily, especially if HMG went fishing for them - automotive is one of the biggest holes in our BoP

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would the UK government provide huge, ongoing subsidies to companies so they can build factories in the UK where all the work is done by robots?

    One of the major problems of post Brexit Britain will be that the people in charge will be free marketeers, but the people who voted Leave being more protectionist and mercantilist. Combine that with continuing resentment from Remainers and I cannot see a Buccaneering Brexit government surviving long.

    It may well be daft, but the demand for protectionism and state support of industry will be there.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951
    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems Labour have gone full GOP in their defence of Kavanaugh Bercow.

    Amazing how rapidly the party has shed its mantle as "champion of the workers, the oppressed, and the minorities".

    Haven't heard a thing from the LDs on the bullying claims. Which sums up their complete failure as an organisation to seize the initiative, any initiative, from the main parties.
    The party of Lord Rennard? That paragon of virtue around women.......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2018
    Foxy said:


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support its own car industry with a population hitting 50 m
    were well past that

    car plants tend to be profitable at 250k units per annum

    on current performance the UK could justify another 3-4 car plants quite easily, especially if HMG went fishing for them - automotive is one of the biggest holes in our BoP

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would the UK government provide huge, ongoing subsidies to companies so they can build factories in the UK where all the work is done by robots?

    One of the major problems of post Brexit Britain will be that the people in charge will be free marketeers, but the people who voted Leave being more protectionist and mercantilist. Combine that with continuing resentment from Remainers and I cannot see a Buccaneering Brexit government surviving long.

    It may well be daft, but the demand for protectionism and state support of industry will be there.

    you mean much as every other country in the world does ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Many countries together are greater than one. That was the argument for Europe all along and it is the reason why Brexit is failing; why it was always going to fail.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/16/britain-eu-brussels-brexit

    That is also the argument for the Union if you consider Wales and Scotland to be countries too
    Very much so. I approve of both.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,750
    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049


    There are deals May could get through Parliament, but she will not propose them because they would split the Conservative party and bring her time as PM to an end.

    I do feel that the Remainers are not getting it. There is no deal of any type that could pass the HoC.

    It is not about the deal, it is about the backstop. As I explained downthread, SM+CU is not a deal that can be offered under A50; therefore it will need a backstop as well and this would also be permanent in case the UK left later or if the UK could not agree to the terms of this deal, which does not currently exist for anyone.

    There is no majority in the HoC for a permanent, NI-only backstop. I doubt even 100 MPs would vote for it. May would be well advised to simply call a straight vote on this issue to prove the point.

    Until and unless this position changes, there are only two options. Leave with no deal, or abandon Brexit.

    Read William Hague in today’s Telegraph.

    I did. He talks about joining EFTA. As I have mentioned:

    1. We have to apply to join EFTA and EEA and this needs the EU's consent.
    2. It is not possible to do this as part of A50 - not legal.
    3. Barnier has been clear that EEA does not solve the NI border; it needs CU as well. That rules out ETFA.
    4. So a totally new deal would be needed. That will need a backstop.

    Not my fault Hague is an idiot. Over to you...

    The law does not exist in a vacuum. That is especially the case with international law. What Hague is suggesting is a pause. If both sides want that a way will be found around any obstacles. And for both sides a pause is undoubtedly preferable to a no deal.

    The current impasse is about an indefinite backstop. Do you think the EU will believe us when we say we want to forget that idea and instead move to a different temporary UK-wide relationship? Strip away the nice-sounding slogans and it's obvious why it's a non-starter.

    I think the EU can see precisely what the issue is. If May finally tells the ERG and the DUP their game is up she will get a huge amount of support from the EU27.

    That's naive. They won't agree a deal that can be blown up by PM Boris Johnson in 2019.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up without the approval of Parliament.

    Johnson couldn’t blow anything up
    He does seem to have blown up his own prospects!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049

    Foxy said:


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 1980s and Mrs Thatcher was wrong about the car industry but that was all a long time ago. Starting from now, who will build these new plants here rather than in the cheaper parts of Europe? They offer cheap labour and fast, frictionless movement of cars and components within the EU.

    And to hark back to yesterday's thread, even if we crash out of the EU, British drivers will still buy German cars. They might cost a bit more, that's all, but we'll still buy them. That is why Baron BMW is not on the phone to Chancellor Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would

    One of the major problems of post Brexit Britain will be that the people in charge will be free marketeers, but the people who voted Leave being more protectionist and mercantilist. Combine that with continuing resentment from Remainers and I cannot see a Buccaneering Brexit government surviving long.

    It may well be daft, but the demand for protectionism and state support of industry will be there.

    you much as every other country in the world does ?
    Yes, that will be one of many protectionist arguments.

    With the WTO on the rocks, itcould be an interesting time for world trade.

    On the bright side, the decrease in world trade and use of import substitution will probably be good for the environment.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet and gills.
    Cambridgeshire, not Norfolk then!
    Definitely Cambridgeshire. I only have five toes per foot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    More likely that todays ONS figures point to a further interest rate rise.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    Leaving the single market will not lead to greater inward investment into the UK. Car companies will not build factories to service the UK market. It is not big enough to justify the cost.

    as a rule of thumb a country can support

    The cars are already being sold here, though. Why build a factory when you already have the capacity to service what is a mature market from elsewhere?
    you can say that about any product or service, but when youre a country with a massive BoP deficit and increasingly fewer means of covering it you may have to recognise you need to do more of your own stuff. And in this instance automotive is one of the biggest deficits weve got.


    This is why Red Robbo was right in the 19 Merkel.
    modern manufacturing is capital intensive, labour is increasingly an irrelevance except for well trained highly skilled workers. People in the UK are stuck somewhere in the 1970s and fail to understand what is happening around them.

    I( think you ll find BMW have been in touch with Mrs May quite a lot this year

    Why would

    One of the major problems of post Brexit Britain will be that of industry will be there.

    you much as every other country in the world does ?
    Yes, that will be one of many protectionist arguments.

    With the WTO on the rocks, itcould be an interesting time for world trade.

    On the bright side, the decrease in world trade and use of import substitution will probably be good for the environment.
    yes its about time we started looking after our own mess. Just loading products out to China were we cant see them doesnt cut pollution. Eventually it turms up on our doorstep.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Yes - I wondered about this - the surge can't be solely down to the wage figures.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Shush! It can only be bad news......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Im more interested in the omerta from the Varadkar Foster meeting.

    As Carlotta pointed out its a bit too quiet
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    felix said:

    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
    wrong type of bullying
  • felix said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Yes - I wondered about this - the surge can't be solely down to the wage figures.

    Percentage chance of a No Deal seems to be falling, too.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    This looks significant. I have been wondering how the Brexiters were going to extricate themselves from the sticky situation they have got themselves into. Nick Timothy seems to be adopting gradual disengagement. It will be interesting to see if they can realign slowly enough that few people notice.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1052126323790016512
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited October 2018
    Over on conhome, Stewart Jackson has a piece detailing all the shenanigans and infighting that has been going on. He has an axe to grind but it is illuminating as to May's tactics and depth of division over the deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,544
    felix said:

    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
    Not that I would describe myself as a left winger, but Bercow should be out on his arse.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
    Not that I would describe myself as a left winger, but Bercow should be out on his arse.
    Yep Bercow should go.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    edited October 2018

    Over on conhome, Stewart Jackson has a piece detailing all the shenanigans and infighting that has been going on. He has an axe to grind but it is illuminating as to May's tactics and depth of division over the deal.

    I'm afraid I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of his mouth. One of the rotten apples in the party who deserved to, lose his seat at the last GE.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Who/Whom, My Enemy's Enemy is my friend, and He May be a Son of Bitch, but he's our Son of a Bitch matter far more in politics than issues of principle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    This looks significant. I have been wondering how the Brexiters were going to extricate themselves from the sticky situation they have got themselves into. Nick Timothy seems to be adopting gradual disengagement. It will be interesting to see if they can realign slowly enough that few people notice.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1052126323790016512

    If both the EU and UK agreed to work towards that, even over 7 years with a firm deadline, then I’d agree to it.

    It’s the fact I think the permanence of the backstop will override any incentive or reason to do that (making it perpetual because it suits the EU for it to be so) that’s the issue here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Raheem, or Pound?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Yes - I wondered about this - the surge can't be solely down to the wage figures.

    Percentage chance of a No Deal seems to be falling, too.

    Hard not to wonder just a little if we're not witnessing that traditional EU deal making system in full swing. If so I'd expect nothing definite before the early hours of a December morn! Richard Nabavi has not posted in a while so I cannot believe things are quite as serious as some on here are suggesting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Raheem, or Pound?
    Maybe Pound cake and eat it?
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    What is surprising, when you think about it, is that all this bullying and dump Bercow thing actually blows up when TMay and Mcvey are so deeply in the excrement. Pure chance, dear boy, pure chance... .
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sean_F said:

    Who/Whom, My Enemy's Enemy is my friend, and He May be a Son of Bitch, but he's our Son of a Bitch matter far more in politics than issues of principle.
    Lots of spin around Bercow; is bad news being buried? I'd have thought if Labour were playing politics, they'd want a new Speaker from the blue side to reduce Theresa May's majority by one.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    This looks significant. I have been wondering how the Brexiters were going to extricate themselves from the sticky situation they have got themselves into. Nick Timothy seems to be adopting gradual disengagement. It will be interesting to see if they can realign slowly enough that few people notice.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1052126323790016512

    If both the EU and UK agreed to work towards that, even over 7 years with a firm deadline, then I’d agree to it.

    It’s the fact I think the permanence of the backstop will override any incentive or reason to do that (making it perpetual because it suits the EU for it to be so) that’s the issue here.
    It isn't only the EU that will find it convenient to make it perpetual. But this is just one, albeit a rather important one, of many mutually advantageous arrangements we have with the EU. Most of them have at least some fans on the UK side. Many are regarded as essential by people in the UK. Very few would be given up without a fight. You can have a lot of fights in 5 years. I'll be starting to campaign for a couple of things I would like to keep in place for example.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    This is probably a stupid question, but what is stopping the government signing up to a "permanent" backstop now, but then backsliding on that a few years down the line if they wanted? What legal mechanism/recourse would the EU have to force the UK to keep to their side of the agreement?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    DavidL said:

    Strong day for Sterling. Perhaps a deal is closer than we are being led to believe.

    Raheem, or Pound?
    Driven by wage inflation and more excellent numbers on employment. If it's true - it needs fact-checking - that 75% of new jobs are full time and youth unemployment is at its lowest level for donkey's years then the govt should really be making more of it. It's a hell of a good news story.

    An anecdote (I know) but my sis-in-law, who has a chequered employment history and no qualifications, applied for three secretarial jobs in Sept and was offered all three!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    This looks significant. I have been wondering how the Brexiters were going to extricate themselves from the sticky situation they have got themselves into. Nick Timothy seems to be adopting gradual disengagement. It will be interesting to see if they can realign slowly enough that few people notice.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1052126323790016512

    If both the EU and UK agreed to work towards that, even over 7 years with a firm deadline, then I’d agree to it.

    It’s the fact I think the permanence of the backstop will override any incentive or reason to do that (making it perpetual because it suits the EU for it to be so) that’s the issue here.
    It isn't only the EU that will find it convenient to make it perpetual. But this is just one, albeit a rather important one, of many mutually advantageous arrangements we have with the EU. Most of them have at least some fans on the UK side. Many are regarded as essential by people in the UK. Very few would be given up without a fight. You can have a lot of fights in 5 years. I'll be starting to campaign for a couple of things I would like to keep in place for example.
    Got it. You want us to go back in.

    Thus you incentivise Brexiteers to push for the hardest possible Brexit as quickly as possible to spike your guns.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited October 2018
    I only got a 2.2% payrise in July, therefore the figures must be rubbish. :smile:
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Danny565 said:

    This is probably a stupid question, but what is stopping the government signing up to a "permanent" backstop now, but then backsliding on that a few years down the line if they wanted? What legal mechanism/recourse would the EU have to force the UK to keep to their side of the agreement?

    Absolutely nothing. Normally it would be unwise as it would damage our reputation. But that ship is already out of port and looking for an albatross to shoot.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Sean_F said:

    Who/Whom, My Enemy's Enemy is my friend, and He May be a Son of Bitch, but he's our Son of a Bitch matter far more in politics than issues of principle.
    Lots of spin around Bercow; is bad news being buried? I'd have thought if Labour were playing politics, they'd want a new Speaker from the blue side to reduce Theresa May's majority by one.
    Surely Bercow would resign and buckingham would go normal blue, so all level.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.
  • This looks significant. I have been wondering how the Brexiters were going to extricate themselves from the sticky situation they have got themselves into. Nick Timothy seems to be adopting gradual disengagement. It will be interesting to see if they can realign slowly enough that few people notice.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1052126323790016512

    Why this creepy obsession with dressing Theresa up as various effigies? That Wicker Man thing atop the cliffs of Dover was similarly disturbing. It puts too much pressure on Theresa. She's just an average politician who never has much luck. Trying to portray her as some kind of mythic superwoman raises expectations unfairly. The psychology of those doing it is also hard to explain. Presumably its roots lie in some sort of Maggie fetish.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet, and gills.
    Yes, but how many toes on each foot?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    ‘In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all- island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.’

    Granted, NI remaining in full alignment with SM/CU is a sufficient subset of this commitment rather than the exact commitment, but has the UK actually offered to maintain full alignment with all rules unless and until another solution is agreed? NI-only or all-UK alignment seem to be the only ways for the UK to honour its commitment.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2018
    Not quite as bad as that "I stopped thinking I'd fall down the cracks in the pavement once I grew up, so there's hope for you Brexit voters yet" video, but still pretty poor.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
    Not that I would describe myself as a left winger, but Bercow should be out on his arse.
    Yep Bercow should go.
    absolutely
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    viewcode said:

    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet, and gills.
    Yes, but how many toes on each foot?
    Mr Fenman has already confirmed the normal number, as he hails from the genetically diverse side of the Norfolk/Cambridgeshire border.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    I now it's playing the man not the ball, but I do have to point out that (despite[1] his large number of degrees), Mr Lilico is not bright. He once wrote a column saying that it would be cheaper to terraform Mars than combat climate change. It took a long time to point out that he was not just wrong, but obviously wrong. Some people[2] have difficulty handling very large numbers.

    [1] Because of?
    [2] Most people?

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Danny565 said:

    This is probably a stupid question, but what is stopping the government signing up to a "permanent" backstop now, but then backsliding on that a few years down the line if they wanted? What legal mechanism/recourse would the EU have to force the UK to keep to their side of the agreement?

    Probably difficult to find a suitable legal mechanism. In practice the discussion is happening because the EU has stuff we want, like maintaining access to their market free of tariff and non-tariff borders, keeping aeroplanes flying... and so on. The continuation of any deal that gave us those things would be contingent on our keeping to the agreement.

    It means that if the UK got to a stage where its economy could stand leaving all deals with EU and function on a no deal basis (when the motorway-car park conversions are finished etc) then it probably could walk away from the backstop and the EU may not be able to do a lot about it.
  • Not Hoyle! He's worse than Bercow
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Sean_F said:

    Who/Whom, My Enemy's Enemy is my friend, and He May be a Son of Bitch, but he's our Son of a Bitch matter far more in politics than issues of principle.
    Lots of spin around Bercow; is bad news being buried? I'd have thought if Labour were playing politics, they'd want a new Speaker from the blue side to reduce Theresa May's majority by one.
    Surely Bercow would resign and buckingham would go normal blue, so all level.
    All level after a few months but the government could fall in that time.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Sean_F said:

    Who/Whom, My Enemy's Enemy is my friend, and He May be a Son of Bitch, but he's our Son of a Bitch matter far more in politics than issues of principle.
    Lots of spin around Bercow; is bad news being buried? I'd have thought if Labour were playing politics, they'd want a new Speaker from the blue side to reduce Theresa May's majority by one.
    Surely Bercow would resign and buckingham would go normal blue, so all level.
    All level after a few months but the government could fall in that time.
    Plus, Bercow doesn't necessarily have to resign as an MP (nor does he necessarily have to comply with the Tory whip)....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951
    edited October 2018
    Anorak said:

    viewcode said:

    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet, and gills.
    Yes, but how many toes on each foot?
    Mr Fenman has already confirmed the normal number, as he hails from the genetically diverse side of the Norfolk/Cambridgeshire border.
    He was strangely quiet on the number of fingers.....
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    I’m sure there are some reinsurers who would be delighted to trade with you at a price consistent with that risk assessment.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    The preponderance of old voters will continue for some while, but the post-97 baby boom (go on; guess the reason) will mean the gap will start to narrow around 2025.

    Pus bear in mind the key demographic here is the 30ish-45ish age group, who were unusually for Corbyn in 2017GE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Apparently it was a non-decision making Cabinet.

    Is this a new constitutional arrangement?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    viewcode said:

    Anorak said:

    Fenman said:

    This strange idea permeates around some of the odder Leavers that anything that happens in London somehow doesn't count.

    It's a weirder bubble that ignores the political atmosphere in what is by far Britain's largest and most prosperous city than any that takes place in it.

    Personally Ive put you buying a house in Essex as a bigger event than Brexit.
    When did Mr M say he was doing that? Anyway, nothing wrong with Essex, although he might find the Centre and North of the county more to his taste than parts at least of the South.
    a while back OKC

    and yes nothing wrong with Essex
    That global warming can't solve...
    Fenman, if your name is descriptive, I suggest you’d best be careful what you wish for!
    Fenman has webbed feet, and gills.
    Yes, but how many toes on each foot?
    Mr Fenman has already confirmed the normal number, as he hails from the genetically diverse side of the Norfolk/Cambridgeshire border.
    He was strangely quiet on the number of fingers.....
    "Flippers" is the correct term, I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    viewcode said:

    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    The preponderance of old voters will continue for some while, but the post-97 baby boom (go on; guess the reason) will mean the gap will start to narrow around 2025.

    Pus bear in mind the key demographic here is the 30ish-45ish age group, who were unusually for Corbyn in 2017GE.
    But, will they be in 2025?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    The preponderance of old voters will continue for some while, but the post-97 baby boom (go on; guess the reason) will mean the gap will start to narrow around 2025.

    Pus bear in mind the key demographic here is the 30ish-45ish age group, who were unusually for Corbyn in 2017GE.
    But, will they be in 2025?
    Good question. No idea... :(
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited October 2018

    felix said:

    Yup and suddenyl today none of the left-wingers here or anywhere else have anything to say about bullying and sexism in the workplace. Funny that.
    wrong type of bullying
    it's a reminder that it's all about getting one over. It's only bad when they do it, not us. And if we did something in our distant past (distant past can be a matter of months) then that's fine, because fundamentally we are good people on the side of angels and its probably not the whole story anyway.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    So, May keeps this shambles previously known as Her Majesty's Government on the road for another day.

    Pathetic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951

    Over on conhome, Stewart Jackson has a piece detailing all the shenanigans and infighting that has been going on. He has an axe to grind but it is illuminating as to May's tactics and depth of division over the deal.

    This is the line with betting consequences:

    "Should she return from Brussels this week with a deal which egregiously betrays the referendum result, the Prime Minister will surely be removed from office – not least because she has so wilfully refused to engage with those seeking to save her premiership by imploring her to pivot to a Canada-style free trade deal."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    Whilst selfie taking is hazardous:

    https://qz.com/1413866/more-than-250-people-have-died-while-taking-selfies/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    The mortality of the elderly is more significant from a public health perspective, and as wealthier and higher educated people live longer, disproportionately affecting Leave voters.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Scott_P said:

    It does look like they're going to find some method of kicking it all into the long grass - all the apocalyptic stuff seems a little forced, just preparing the ground for a compromise already more or less reached.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    I assume Laura caught him on his way to the grand opening of a new fudge factory in Brussels?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    So, May keeps this shambles previously known as Her Majesty's Government on the road for another day.

    Pathetic.

    Quite some achievement in fact. But even though the patient remains alive, is there any meaningful quality of life / government?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    edited October 2018

    I only got a 2.2% payrise in July, therefore the figures must be rubbish. :smile:

    0.75% for me this year. A decade of annual real terms pay cuts.

    But on the other hand, all the more reason to take early retirement next year, as I get CPI then.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tpfkar said:

    So, May keeps this shambles previously known as Her Majesty's Government on the road for another day.

    Pathetic.

    Quite some achievement in fact. But even though the patient remains alive, is there any meaningful quality of life / government?
    Somewhere between a permanent vegetative state, and a zombie.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Brom said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    5 (or 7) cold winters will certainly winnow the ranks of the leavers. We could be in Corbyn's second term by then. Not many people will have too many fucks to give about trade deals with Timor-Leste.

    Yes but for every leaver that dies in a cold winter there's some young remain voters falling off a balcony while taking a selfie.There won't be any significant demographic change until long after Brexit.
    The preponderance of old voters will continue for some while, but the post-97 baby boom (go on; guess the reason) will mean the gap will start to narrow around 2025.

    Pus bear in mind the key demographic here is the 30ish-45ish age group, who were unusually for Corbyn in 2017GE.
    But, will they be in 2025?
    The 37-52 age group or 30-45 age group in 2025 ?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Over on conhome, Stewart Jackson has a piece detailing all the shenanigans and infighting that has been going on. He has an axe to grind but it is illuminating as to May's tactics and depth of division over the deal.

    This is the line with betting consequences:

    "Should she return from Brussels this week with a deal which egregiously betrays the referendum result, the Prime Minister will surely be removed from office – not least because she has so wilfully refused to engage with those seeking to save her premiership by imploring her to pivot to a Canada-style free trade deal."
    How do those who will remove her from office identify the point where they have been betrayed egregiously enough to actually try and remove her? That point may only be reached when a deal is signed and sealed, and then it’s too late for it to achieve anything.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Imagine the lols. Twitter would burn out in a flare of indignation and spittle.
    https://www.change.org/p/bank-of-england-margaret-thatcher-for-the-face-of-the-new-50-note
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    tpfkar said:

    So, May keeps this shambles previously known as Her Majesty's Government on the road for another day.

    Pathetic.

    Quite some achievement in fact. But even though the patient remains alive, is there any meaningful quality of life / government?
    Very much so, there's a budget coming at the end of this month.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Anorak said:

    Imagine the lols. Twitter would burn out in a flare of indignation and spittle.
    https://www.change.org/p/bank-of-england-margaret-thatcher-for-the-face-of-the-new-50-note

    The arch-monetarist, always up for controlling the money supply, to be on our highest denomination note. :lol:
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300

    Apparently it was a non-decision making Cabinet.

    Is this a new constitutional arrangement?

    I was once on my way to attend something billed as an extraordinary management meeting. Colleague A asked why it was extraordinary, at which point Colleague B (a former manager) promptly replied "one where they take a decision".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    viewcode said:

    I now it's playing the man not the ball, but I do have to point out that (despite[1] his large number of degrees), Mr Lilico is not bright. He once wrote a column saying that it would be cheaper to terraform Mars than combat climate change. It took a long time to point out that he was not just wrong, but obviously wrong. Some people[2] have difficulty handling very large numbers.

    [1] Because of?
    [2] Most people?

    Playing devil's advocate: is he 'obviously wrong' ?

    The cost of mitigating, yet alone combating, climate change will be many hundreds of billions; there may also be recurring costs as well; not just one-offs. We may well be talking of multiple trillions.

    Whereas the costs of terraforming Mars will be massive, but some techniques (e.g. asteroid/comet movement) may be relatively 'cheap' (for a wide enough definition of 'cheap'). Since the tech isn't there, it's hard to know. Then again, much of the tech isn't there to 'combat' climate change, either.

    Since the costs of combating climate change are uncertain, and the costs of terraforming Mars even more uncertain, yet both are very large numbers, I cannot see how he is 'obviously wrong'.

    On the other hand, the costs of *not* combating climate change and the wider environment (both direct and obvious, such as rising sea levels, and indirect, such as health effects of a poor environment), should also be on the ledger, countering the costs of combatting climate change. There is no obvious counter in terraforming Mars.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    It seems to the thing nowadays to make a totally false assertion and then denounce those with other opinions or actual facts as liars. And then for people to post these false assertions and libels without comment as the presumed truth.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    Apparently it was a non-decision making Cabinet.

    Is this a new constitutional arrangement?

    Called collective irresponsibility.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    edited October 2018


    On the other hand, the costs of *not* combating climate change and the wider environment (both direct and obvious, such as rising sea levels, and indirect, such as health effects of a poor environment), should also be on the ledger, countering the costs of combatting climate change. There is no obvious counter in terraforming Mars.

    Article IX of the outer space treaty says "Hi".

    The counter to terraforming Mars is that it might not be possible, or probably is, but won't be on any human lifetime timescale.
This discussion has been closed.