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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day closer to March 29th 2019 – the way forward on Bre

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day closer to March 29th 2019 – the way forward on Brexit remains unclear

Puzzled by all the Brexit options floating around? Here's my summary of where we stand

Read the full story here


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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    First
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Second!
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    edited October 2018
    I like Henig's table, though I've no idea if it's accurate or not.

    I am sure there will be some PBers along soon to 'correct' and errors though :smile:
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    "....................duplicity, subterfuge and misjudgement. How I saw an establishment coup wreck a clean Brexit."

    Say's Stewart Jackson!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Roger said:

    "....................duplicity, subterfuge and misjudgement. How I saw an establishment coup wreck a clean Brexit."

    Say's Stewart Jackson!

    Like shamelessness for Boris, he knows it when he sees it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    "No deal" doesn't need a Parly majority though. It's what happens if all the other options don't get a majority.

    If "No Deal" happens, I propose that all MPs and all Civil Servants get a 90% pay cut. Non-performance related pay...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123

    I like Henig's table, though I've no idea if it's accurate or not.

    I am sure there will be some PBers along soon to 'correct' and errors though :smile:

    I am claiming a diagonal line. What’s the prize?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Nice summary. A lot of "probably"s though.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. P, well, quite. But Bercow's priority is Bercow.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    In fairness both are in very marginal marginals.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.

    What about Yvette? Or Cameron?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    FPT:

    The brutal truth is that the EU27 may now fail in their objective to strike a withdrawal agreement in time for the UK’s departure, because of this one matter. If the backstop was something the EU had insisted on from the beginning, then perhaps it should have been a non-negotiable demand. But it was not — it was a proposal adopted some way in to the process and was adopted as a means to an end, rather than an end itself.


    https://www.ft.com/content/0df6434e-d12c-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    Scott_P said:
    Quite.

    It’s noteworthy that these reports or outside scrutiny are done by women and then ignored by the largely male leadership. Remember the way Elizabeth Filkin was abused by MPs because they did not like it when she investigated them.

    There is, dare I say it, more than a touch of misogny in the way that male leaders dislike being taken to task by women.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Smithson, do we have any other victims valued Parliamentary friends?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    In fairness both are in very marginal marginals.
    I've mentioned this on here before, but it's interesting how Peterborough and North West Leicestershire have changed since 2005:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8an3moy
    https://tinyurl.com/y9puld6j

    Peterborough has gone from a Tory majority of 2,700 to a Labour majority of 600, while NW Leicestershire has gone from a Labour majority of 4,500 to a Tory majority of 13,300.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Scott_P said:

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.

    What about Yvette? Or Cameron?
    Or Louise! (No, not that one!)
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    Ah, that makes me like him more than I did!

    Isn't he the MP who got into a spat on Facebook, calling people chavs?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    In the interests of fairness, I've just read the Stewart Jackson piece and it is pretty well-written and hits the mark.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    Ah, that makes me like him more than I did!

    Isn't he the MP who got into a spat on Facebook, calling people chavs?
    does he post under the name Roger :-)
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited October 2018
    Scott_P said:
    That would be another independent inquiry - that gives the result we want.

    Sounds familiar?

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Miss Cyclefree, indeed.

    Though I would point out an odd seeming discrepancy. There was a story a couple of years ago about sexual harassment being rife at Westminster, with the majority of victims being male (somewhat odd, given most MPs, of course, are chaps). I wonder if that's been debunked, or if the current story is about only certain allegations, because it seems a bit strange to have gone missing.
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    “Chairs meetings that don’t discuss stuff, don’t decide stuff”. PMs spin doctors need to get to work on people putting that toxic line about.

    However, I sense the EU are in trouble this week, to May’s advantage. 🤗

    Salzburg was a bullying disaster for the EU, but now the spotlights on this what can they do about it? If for example they scheduled just ten minutes for May to speak, and then went into dinner to discuss Brexit without allowing May in, hows that going to look.

    EU have avoided pressure building on them from their own commerce by sounding relentlessly close to a deal and in control of it, but now they talk up no deal and give impression of lacking control, they got blame and backlash coming.

    Also, EU kicked issues with migrants into grass from which it’s going to race out at them this week.
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    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    In fairness both are in very marginal marginals.
    I've mentioned this on here before, but it's interesting how Peterborough and North West Leicestershire have changed since 2005:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8an3moy
    https://tinyurl.com/y9puld6j

    Peterborough has gone from a Tory majority of 2,700 to a Labour majority of 600, while NW Leicestershire has gone from a Labour majority of 4,500 to a Tory majority of 13,300.
    NW Leics is like other Midlands coal mining seats such as Cannock and NE Derbys that have moved to the Cons.

    Peterborough is more like Bedford or the Milton Keynes seats in being in the outer commuter belt ring. Lab also benefit from the fact that much of the more Con voting part of Peterborough UA is in the NW Cambs seat.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    thats what moving to Essex does to you, next youll be voting leave and eating jellied eels
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    I think you should lie down :o
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Quite.

    It’s noteworthy that these reports or outside scrutiny are done by women and then ignored by the largely male leadership. Remember the way Elizabeth Filkin was abused by MPs because they did not like it when she investigated them.

    There is, dare I say it, more than a touch of misogny in the way that male leaders dislike being taken to task by women.
    most of the defence of Bercow Ive seen today has been fronted by women

    maybe the sisterhood should get its act together
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    Bercow needs to go, if only to spare us from both sides in this debate spouting more self-serving drivel. Bullying in the workplace is unacceptable, just as it is anywhere else.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Quite.

    It’s noteworthy that these reports or outside scrutiny are done by women and then ignored by the largely male leadership. Remember the way Elizabeth Filkin was abused by MPs because they did not like it when she investigated them.

    There is, dare I say it, more than a touch of misogny in the way that male leaders dislike being taken to task by women.
    most of the defence of Bercow Ive seen today has been fronted by women

    maybe the sisterhood should get its act together
    Following the report, the Govt really should whip a vote on removing him.

    Win win; they either get him deposed, or they show up Labour and others who prop him up.


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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I think America is on the left hand side of the Laffer curve

    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1051928954695749632?s=19
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Quite.

    It’s noteworthy that these reports or outside scrutiny are done by women and then ignored by the largely male leadership. Remember the way Elizabeth Filkin was abused by MPs because they did not like it when she investigated them.

    There is, dare I say it, more than a touch of misogny in the way that male leaders dislike being taken to task by women.
    most of the defence of Bercow Ive seen today has been fronted by women

    maybe the sisterhood should get its act together
    Following the report, the Govt really should whip a vote on removing him.

    Win win; they either get him deposed, or they show up Labour and others who prop him up.


    I wouldnt set your hopes too high on that one
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    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    edited October 2018
    Scott_P said:
    He might be a liar, bully, but it’s in our interest he stays in his position of power for now, that is Labours line on this one. That’s how low Labour have sunk in 2018.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Alistair said:

    I think America is on the left hand side of the Laffer curve

    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1051928954695749632?s=19

    I assume the deficit isn’t at 17%. I don’t suppose you have the actual numbers on hand?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Scott_P said:
    He might be a liar, bully, peado, murderer, but it’s in our interest he stays in his position of power for now, that is Labours line on this one. That’s how low Labour have sunk in 2018.
    maybe they dont know his family is jewish ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    I prescribe a darkened room and several pills together with a decent chablis if it doesn't blow over soonest.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    They're in the middle of a perfect storm. They're facing a major change in technologies, serious scandals, potential trade wars and more agile competitors.

    That doesn't mean they won't weather the storm, but I think they require some good captaining. I've no idea if their current management are up to it or not.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    I am halfway through reading the Cox report. It is withering.

    Why she needs her homework marked by some other "independent" body beats me. Those who are suggesting yet another review are doing so in order to avoid confronting what she says and what it means for them. As well as being bullies they are cowards.

    There is much in this report for other organisations to digest and learn from.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    I prescribe a darkened room and several pills together with a decent chablis if it doesn't blow over soonest.
    I may just have to make do with a decent Chablis.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152

    Miss Cyclefree, indeed.

    Though I would point out an odd seeming discrepancy. There was a story a couple of years ago about sexual harassment being rife at Westminster, with the majority of victims being male (somewhat odd, given most MPs, of course, are chaps). I wonder if that's been debunked, or if the current story is about only certain allegations, because it seems a bit strange to have gone missing.

    The harassment is not principally a male/female thing. It's about those with power mistreating the young or more junior staff (not necessarily young in age) who are without power. It's about the abuse of power. Some of that abuse will be sexual. And some will be plain bullying and lack of civility and manners.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    Cyclefree said:

    I am halfway through reading the Cox report. It is withering.

    Why she needs her homework marked by some other "independent" body beats me. Those who are suggesting yet another review are doing so in order to avoid confronting what she says and what it means for them. As well as being bullies they are cowards.

    There is much in this report for other organisations to digest and learn from.

    Do you have a linky, please?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    After a few years in Essex, you might be voting for Bernard Jenkin.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152

    Very similar to the "this anti-semitism is being weaponised" argument. And coming from the same party. Odd that.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Words I never thought I'd write: I agree with Andrea Leadsom.

    Who are you, and what have you done with Alastair? I knew you should never have moved to Essex.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Bercow should go while he still has a few friends and a fragment of honour left. Regardless of the bullying accusations 10 years is long enough for prime ministers and a whole host of other offices and I'm not sure the Speaker is any different
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    edited October 2018

    Cyclefree said:

    I am halfway through reading the Cox report. It is withering.

    Why she needs her homework marked by some other "independent" body beats me. Those who are suggesting yet another review are doing so in order to avoid confronting what she says and what it means for them. As well as being bullies they are cowards.

    There is much in this report for other organisations to digest and learn from.

    Do you have a linky, please?
    https://www.cloisters.com/images/Bullying-Harassment-HOC-Staff-Oct-2018.pdf

    Members of Parliament are elected representatives, but their mandate does not entitle them to bully or harass those who are employed in the House to support and assist them.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152

    Cyclefree said:

    I am halfway through reading the Cox report. It is withering.

    Why she needs her homework marked by some other "independent" body beats me. Those who are suggesting yet another review are doing so in order to avoid confronting what she says and what it means for them. As well as being bullies they are cowards.

    There is much in this report for other organisations to digest and learn from.

    Do you have a linky, please?
    https://www.cloisters.com/images/Bullying-Harassment-HOC-Staff-Oct-2018.pdf

    You will be able to read my own thoughts on this in my work blog later today.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited October 2018

    They're in the middle of a perfect storm. They're facing a major change in technologies, serious scandals, potential trade wars and more agile competitors.

    That doesn't mean they won't weather the storm, but I think they require some good captaining. I've no idea if their current management are up to it or not.
    I dont disagree, theyve had an all round kicking in the last 18 months and the future prospects are facing serious head winds. Today Audi got hit with € 800m of fines and thats just for germany the US will be much bigger. VW predicted 100,000 direct job losses in Germany as the industry re adjusts.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    I wonder if Bercow wishes he had been deposed in 2015?
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    Scott_P said:
    He might be a liar, bully, but it’s in our interest he stays in his position of power for now, that is Labours line on this one. That’s how low Labour have sunk in 2018.
    maybe they dont know his family is jewish ?
    That would be a game changer.

    “He might be a liar, bully, but it’s in our interest he stays in his position of power for now. What? He’s a Jew? Stick him on the train then”.

    Yeah Labour are sinking. They’re a mess.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    Norm said:

    Bercow should go while he still has a few friends and a fragment of honour left. Regardless of the bullying accusations 10 years is long enough for prime ministers and a whole host of other offices and I'm not sure the Speaker is any different

    Frank Field said much the same thing earlier today. Praised him as a reforming Speaker but said that it was time for him to move on. He's right.

    To make the sort of cultural change that is needed will take time, much more than people anticipate. That alone is reason enough to have someone new who can see the process through.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's hard to disagree with this assessment:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1052200538295529473
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. P, Bercow already had a departure schedule. It's been and gone.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:
    He didn’t stick to his old one.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    edited October 2018
    Who might this be?

    This is defined by a collective ethos at the senior levels of the organisation, which sets the tone for a culture that permits abuse. The acquiescence of senior management, the institutional minimising of complaints, the lack of effective procedures to address them, and the lack of support for those targeted for such treatment has resulted in the stifling of potential, the blighting of careers and the loss of talented and dedicated employees, many of them women. And the information reveals that the problems are continuing. This is not a problem of the past....

    ...Many expressed frustration with what are seen as repeated failings at the most senior levels of the House to commit to tackling these issues and to take action, rather than merely to promise change, produce “tick-box” policies and then just allow everything to return to normal.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,175
    edited October 2018
    On Topic
    image
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:
    Some of us have bets on him seeing out 2018.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Nigelb said:
    Some of us have bets on him seeing out 2018.
    There's no way he'll voluntarily go before Brexit is done (in Parliamentary terms). I think you'll be safe enough.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Nigelb said:
    Some of us have bets on him seeing out 2018.
    There's no way he'll voluntarily go before Brexit is done (in Parliamentary terms). I think you'll be safe enough.
    I shall be sorry to see him go when he does eventually go. He has been the Desert Orchid of political bets.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152

    Who might this be?

    This is defined by a collective ethos at the senior levels of the organisation, which sets the tone for a culture that permits abuse. The acquiescence of senior management, the institutional minimising of complaints, the lack of effective procedures to address them, and the lack of support for those targeted for such treatment has resulted in the stifling of potential, the blighting of careers and the loss of talented and dedicated employees, many of them women. And the information reveals that the problems are continuing. This is not a problem of the past....

    ...Many expressed frustration with what are seen as repeated failings at the most senior levels of the House to commit to tackling these issues and to take action, rather than merely to promise change, produce “tick-box” policies and then just allow everything to return to normal.


    And how many organisations might that apply to?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Had trouble getting to sleep last night so I listened to radio 4 (Today program) instead of my usual World Service.

    3 phrases were hammered into my head over the next 30 minutes - 'universal credit(?)', Brexit, and 'back stop'. Other than brexit they were all new to me.

    Is it really that FUBAR over there?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Ouch!

    This cycle of repeatedly reacting to crises only after they have developed into crises, and sometimes only after unwelcome publicity, is a perilous approach to adopt for any organisation, but it is completely hopeless for a place of work.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Southend West ?!

    10,000 majority !
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336

    They're in the middle of a perfect storm. They're facing a major change in technologies, serious scandals, potential trade wars and more agile competitors.

    That doesn't mean they won't weather the storm, but I think they require some good captaining. I've no idea if their current management are up to it or not.
    I dont disagree, theyve had an all round kicking in the last 18 months and the future prospects are facing serious head winds. Today Audi got hit with € 800m of fines and thats just for germany the US will be much bigger. VW predicted 100,000 direct job losses in Germany as the industry re adjusts.
    Electric is going to so serious harm to them, if not kill them outright, if it ramps up quickly
    When is the first battery factory capable of supplying a mass market electric vehicle planned to start producing in Europe ?
    Five years' time ?

    And much of their legacy engineering will be useless.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    edited October 2018
    There are voters in Putney on benefits?

    And since when has the Calder Valley been in London?!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Cyclefree said:

    Who might this be?

    This is defined by a collective ethos at the senior levels of the organisation, which sets the tone for a culture that permits abuse. The acquiescence of senior management, the institutional minimising of complaints, the lack of effective procedures to address them, and the lack of support for those targeted for such treatment has resulted in the stifling of potential, the blighting of careers and the loss of talented and dedicated employees, many of them women. And the information reveals that the problems are continuing. This is not a problem of the past....

    ...Many expressed frustration with what are seen as repeated failings at the most senior levels of the House to commit to tackling these issues and to take action, rather than merely to promise change, produce “tick-box” policies and then just allow everything to return to normal.


    And how many organisations might that apply to?
    Possibly thirty years ago - but even a decade ago this would have seen sackings, demotions and reassignments in the private sector. I started work in 1980 - at the company I worked for no one could have got away with this for weeks, let alone years.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Nigelb said:

    They're in the middle of a perfect storm. They're facing a major change in technologies, serious scandals, potential trade wars and more agile competitors.

    That doesn't mean they won't weather the storm, but I think they require some good captaining. I've no idea if their current management are up to it or not.
    I dont disagree, theyve had an all round kicking in the last 18 months and the future prospects are facing serious head winds. Today Audi got hit with € 800m of fines and thats just for germany the US will be much bigger. VW predicted 100,000 direct job losses in Germany as the industry re adjusts.
    Electric is going to so serious harm to them, if not kill them outright, if it ramps up quickly
    When is the first battery factory capable of supplying a mass market electric vehicle planned to start producing in Europe ?
    Five years' time ?

    And much of their legacy engineering will be useless.
    they bet the farm on diesel, cheated and lost.

    all major German cities are now banning diesels from city centres. often backed by a court order.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Tim_B said:

    Had trouble getting to sleep last night so I listened to radio 4 (Today program) instead of my usual World Service.

    3 phrases were hammered into my head over the next 30 minutes - 'universal credit(?)', Brexit, and 'back stop'. Other than brexit they were all new to me.

    Is it really that FUBAR over there?

    Yes
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336

    Nigelb said:
    Some of us have bets on him seeing out 2018.
    Sometimes sacrifices must be made.
    Though I admit you almost swayed me.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Pulpstar said:

    Southend West ?!

    10,000 majority !
    This analysis is a nonsense, Kami has almost 25,000 majority. Enormous !

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    Stewart Jackson - a Tory who would put you off Tories for life.

    John Bercow - I can tell he's a prick from here. He might be a reformer and an articulate bloke but that doesn't stop him being a prick.

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.
    In fairness both are in very marginal marginals.
    I've mentioned this on here before, but it's interesting how Peterborough and North West Leicestershire have changed since 2005:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8an3moy
    https://tinyurl.com/y9puld6j

    Peterborough has gone from a Tory majority of 2,700 to a Labour majority of 600, while NW Leicestershire has gone from a Labour majority of 4,500 to a Tory majority of 13,300.
    NW Leics has changed considerably over my quarter century in the area. Partly this with the winding down of mining, but it is now a major distribution hub, from its position with good motorway access, and the East Midlands Airport. It is the only UK airport to have 24 hour flights, so has a large number of overnight freight flights to deliver next day. A lot of new businesses and housing as a result. It is demographically very changed.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Tim_B said:

    Had trouble getting to sleep last night so I listened to radio 4 (Today program) instead of my usual World Service.

    3 phrases were hammered into my head over the next 30 minutes - 'universal credit(?)', Brexit, and 'back stop'. Other than brexit they were all new to me.

    Is it really that FUBAR over there?

    Nah! It's (still) a democracy. We're arguing. Its a feature, not a bug.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I did not know there was a Bolton in Cumbria. The only one I know is in NW Manchester
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    I'm not clicking on a link from The Scum so forgive the question - how do they chose which MPs are at soecific risk from UC? Seems to myself and various observers (including Sir John "It's Still Here" Major) that it makes many Tories be at risk because of the perception issue.

    Specifically that it makes the Tory Party look like amoral uncaring twats. I know that many PB Tories consider themselves not to be, yet so many of their MPs are likely to continue to vote for a policy so uncaring that would have Thatcher turning in her Satan Pit.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    It's hard to disagree with this assessment:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1052200538295529473

    "So you wanna concrete proposal, huh Mr. Tusk? How about you move on the Irish border, or Tony over there will have you go for a swim wearing some concrete boots....dats my concrete proposal...."
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On next Conservative leader / next Prime Minister betting:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1052114107200098304
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Miss Cyclefree, indeed.

    Though I would point out an odd seeming discrepancy. There was a story a couple of years ago about sexual harassment being rife at Westminster, with the majority of victims being male (somewhat odd, given most MPs, of course, are chaps). I wonder if that's been debunked, or if the current story is about only certain allegations, because it seems a bit strange to have gone missing.

    Mr Dancer, some chaps like other chaps.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited October 2018
    Tim_B said:

    Had trouble getting to sleep last night so I listened to radio 4 (Today program) instead of my usual World Service.

    3 phrases were hammered into my head over the next 30 minutes - 'universal credit(?)', Brexit, and 'back stop'. Other than brexit they were all new to me.

    Is it really that FUBAR over there?

    Opinions differ ;). Out here in the provinces, we're perfectly happy. However, Westminster is having a collective nervous breakdown. Sadly, that includes our Prime Minister.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    I did not know there was a Bolton in Cumbria. The only one I know is in NW Manchester
    Probably mixed it up with Bolton Abbey:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolton_Abbey_(village)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Southend West ?!

    10,000 majority !
    This analysis is a nonsense, Kami has almost 25,000 majority. Enormous !

    The risk is probably still non-zero though (you might just need a logarithmic axis to see it).
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Southend West ?!

    10,000 majority !
    This analysis is a nonsense, Kami has almost 25,000 majority. Enormous !

    Yes I'd have thought the pleasantly articulate Leaver Tory MP for South Middlesborough and Cleveland on News 24 this afternoon would have been in greater danger
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    Mr. Jackson was the second sitting MP, after Nick Palmer, to post on PB. Both subsequently lost their seats. I should emphasise that correlation does not equate to causation.

    What about Yvette? Or Cameron?
    And Louise?
This discussion has been closed.