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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be the face of the new £50 note?

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    C. R. Alder Wright, given the demographic with most appetite for £50 notes.

    Never heard of him! If an appetite for £50 notes is the criteria what about Ronnie Biggs
    Invented heroin.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Not listening, but seems R4 are in trouble again thanks to Humphreys.

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1052463798110449665

    How long before he retires?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2018
    SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford 'Scotland voted Remain and must not be dragged out of the Single Market and Customs Union against its will'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tomfrench85/status/1052462044795015168
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Original names of BR Class 60s (not yet used on a bank note):

    Elizabeth Fry - £5 2002 - 2017
    Josephine Butler - Social Campaigner
    Mary Somerville - Scientist
    Dorothy Garrod - Archeologist

    But I had to google the last 3 - so not sure they fall into the category of "widely known".....compared to previous choices of the BoE.
    I agree that it probably has to be well known - that's probably how Austen made it to the £10 note. I don't think Lovelace is known enough to be in the running. Pankhurst is probably best placed if they really want a woman.

    Of the other names from the 60s list I think Wilberforce, Logie Baird and Graham Bell have the best chance.
    I thought Fry had been on a banknote?
    She has, I got it wrong.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Logically, it should be Turing. No shadow of a doubt.

    But I'm a computer science graduate, so probably biased.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited October 2018

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited October 2018

    Logically, it should be Turing. No shadow of a doubt.

    But I'm a computer science graduate, so probably biased.

    I'd rather they pick Ada Lovelace. If we go down the computing road, that is.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.
  • Based on the intellectual mood of the country right now, how about Mary Whitehouse for the new £50?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Not listening, but seems R4 are in trouble again thanks to Humphreys.

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1052463798110449665

    How long before he retires?

    No its just Coveney is a prick
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    VW issue warning over medium-term future:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/16/german-car-industry-faces-existential-threat-political-attack/

    Massively out manoeuvred on electric cars in part.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.
    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    MaxPB said:

    Logically, it should be Turing. No shadow of a doubt.

    But I'm a computer science graduate, so probably biased.

    I'd rather they pick Ada Lovelace. If we go down the computing road, that is.
    Happy for that. Her contribution is less, although still very important. But as someone said down thread, not so many have heard of her.

    Although, I'm not so sure why having heard of them makes a great deal of difference on the £50. Most people never see one.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    HYUFD said:

    SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford 'Scotland voted Remain and must not be dragged out of the Single Market and Customs Union against its will'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tomfrench85/status/1052462044795015168

    Surely that's not on the table without accepting the 4 freedoms that are required for the SM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.
    Home sweet home.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=31&v=hD5Td-cJEKY
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.
    A trade deal that suits Australia as much as possible. Doesn't seem about ideology to me, just a hard-headed assessment of how the Aussies can get the best deal for themselves. If we go around saying we're desperate for trade deals we're not likely to get a good one (shocker).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: the weather forecast has improved somewhat but rain is still possible/probable and we've a few days until things kick off.

    Lots of new (and 'new') names on the FP1 list. If you want to throw some twenty pence bets, could be worth backing, each way, the likes of Williams, McLaren, and Sauber drivers to top first practice.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Original names of BR Class 60s (not yet used on a bank note):

    Elizabeth Fry - £5 2002 - 2017
    Josephine Butler - Social Campaigner
    Mary Somerville - Scientist
    Dorothy Garrod - Archeologist

    But I had to google the last 3 - so not sure they fall into the category of "widely known".....compared to previous choices of the BoE.
    I agree that it probably has to be well known - that's probably how Austen made it to the £10 note. I don't think Lovelace is known enough to be in the running. Pankhurst is probably best placed if they really want a woman.

    Of the other names from the 60s list I think Wilberforce, Logie Baird and Graham Bell have the best chance.
    I thought Fry had been on a banknote?
    She has, I got it wrong.
    Elizabeth Fry (on the last fiver) has a blue plaque just down from the Bank of England. Perhaps before placing our bets we should take a walking tour of the City and count the plaques and statues to see who will be subconsciously imprinted on the bankers' minds.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Not listening, but seems R4 are in trouble again thanks to Humphreys.

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1052463798110449665

    How long before he retires?

    No its just Coveney is a prick
    If No Deal happens Ireland will struggle more than the UK. The EU doesn't appear to give a monkey's about that though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Based on the intellectual mood of the country right now, how about Mary Whitehouse for the new £50?

    Or Hattie Jaques
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    How about Joseph Conrad? A great writer, unquestionably of the first rank, and a nod towards the many contributions that immigrants have made to this country.

    If a scientist is called for, James Clerk Maxwell would be a great choice.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    MaxPB said:

    Logically, it should be Turing. No shadow of a doubt.

    But I'm a computer science graduate, so probably biased.

    I'd rather they pick Ada Lovelace. If we go down the computing road, that is.
    Happy for that. Her contribution is less, although still very important. But as someone said down thread, not so many have heard of her.

    Although, I'm not so sure why having heard of them makes a great deal of difference on the £50. Most people never see one.
    Given that the current £50 note has two people on it Ada Lovelace and Turing together would be my bet were that topic the one to be used...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.
    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    TheUK government seem convinced that if you make a concession the other side will respond with one,

    The concept of bank and thank ( you make a concession, they bank it, say thanks but offer nothing back ) is apparently unknown to them.

    Given where they are the best thing now is to take everything off the table walk away and watch the other side sweat. Barnier and Juncker cant afford failure imo especially with euro elections on the horizon and a revolt in Italy.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    It wasn't the foundation of web commerce in the early 70s, and it is nonsense to portray what happened to Turing as government persecution, it's just how things were in those days. (And while I am at it, I think there is really serious doubt as to whether his death was suicide.)
  • Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Looks like he is decidedly pro-Brexit as he - correctly - believes it will allow Australia to get an immensely beneficial trade deal because the UK's negotiating position will be very weak. This is just a statement of fact. If the UK wants a deal then it has to offer the Australians more than they get now.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    John Churchill, Duke of Marlborough. Odd to have Wellington on a note and not him.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    At the time and given the place public key encryption was created - keeping it secret made perfect sense. It wasn't an era where machines talked to each other..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited October 2018
    Austen, Turner and Churchill are all after 1800.

    Any suggestions of a pre 1800 possibility if the BoE want to balance historically ?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Politics got in the way.

    As was said to be a likely possibility later in the article though that gets overlooked and everything after the SHOULD but before the BUT gets quoted.
    But we held all the aces.
    We did. The EU had a huge problem - the treaties did not give them ANY entitlement to any money if a state left. And they were desperate for the money.

    So they came up with a plan - create a fake sequence that insists that they get the money paid in the withdrawal agreement; then claim (falsely) that they can't do a trade agreement in the negotiations so this would have to be done later and would be a non-binding promise. Basically de-link the two.

    The correct response from the UK would have been to laugh; say that they will agree the Brexit bill only in response to a trade agreement and say that if the EU really can't agree a trade deal until after Brexit, there is really not much point talking to them. Then go ahead and prepare for no deal until the EU agree to talk without preconditions.

    What happened - Remainers happened! They got May to overrule DD and agree to sequencing and then got her to concede everything else as we went along. The idea of course was that the end deal would be so bad that we would all end up remaining.

    Well, it might work but it seems to have gone wrong. Because on the NI backstop, frankly the UK public are not going to agree to that and will blame the EU because it is obviously unreasonable. So the chances of no deal at all are rising and it is now the most likely outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The DUP won’t be voting against the government in a vote of no confidence even if they vote against the budget:

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1051951042189910016?s=21

    What a ridiculous situation that would be. But makes sense for them.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Given the increasing importance of genetic-based medicine, having another woman to avoid a future controversy when the £10 is next redesigned and the good sense in having a scientist to sit alongside the current politician, writer and painter (and that's just Churchill), then I agree with the previous poster who tipped Rosalind Franklin. As an added bonus, it would piss off the anti-semites.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Given the increasing importance of genetic-based medicine, having another woman to avoid a future controversy when the £10 is next redesigned and the good sense in having a scientist to sit alongside the current politician, writer and painter (and that's just Churchill), then I agree with the previous poster who tipped Rosalind Franklin. As an added bonus, it would piss off the anti-semites.

    Very much agree.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    How about Joseph Conrad? A great writer, unquestionably of the first rank, and a nod towards the many contributions that immigrants have made to this country.

    If a scientist is called for, James Clerk Maxwell would be a great choice.

    Conrad's politics are interesting (from Wiki):

    Conrad's distrust of democracy sprang from his doubts whether the propagation of democracy as an aim in itself could solve any problems. He thought that, in view of the weakness of human nature and of the "criminal" character of society, democracy offered boundless opportunities for demagogues and charlatans.

    But...

    He accused social democrats of his time of acting to weaken "the national sentiment, the preservation of which [was his] concern" – of attempting to dissolve national identities in an impersonal melting-pot. "I look at the future from the depth of a very black past and I find that nothing is left for me except fidelity to a cause lost, to an idea without future." It was Conrad's hopeless fidelity to the memory of Poland that prevented him from believing in the idea of "international fraternity", which he considered, under the circumstances, just a verbal exercise. He resented some socialists' talk of freedom and world brotherhood while keeping silent about his own partitioned and oppressed Poland.
  • Am I right in thinking that the RoI has kmph on its roads and NI has mph ?

    If so surely there must be a few big signs at the border warning of the changeover.

    Not to mention the 'welcome to County Donegal' and 'Welcome to District of Strabane' signs replete with logos and crests.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Barnier and Fox are singing from the same hymn sheet.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1052286526263054337

    Er, no. That moves nothing forward for the UK. The DUP are still going to be fulminating, the EU just incentivised to drag their feet another year.

    May has been a disaster on the back-stop. Should never have been anything the EU could ever suggest had been pocketed as agreed. It's Negotiating 1.01. Never leave anything on the table that will kill the deal.
    Agree. The transition period extension is pointless. It is being offered in exchange for the UK agreeing to the NI backstop. If May and Robbins think that will fly they are more delusional than we thought.
    I understand the appeal of a bit more time for things but given how the EU negotiates I don't know what it would achieve other than more time to argue before a last minute fudge.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Looks like he is decidedly pro-Brexit as he - correctly - believes it will allow Australia to get an immensely beneficial trade deal because the UK's negotiating position will be very weak. This is just a statement of fact. If the UK wants a deal then it has to offer the Australians more than they get now.

    You never miss an opportunity to undermine the UK.

    Australia is far smaller than the UK. The do trade deals all over the World with larger economies. They don't get screwed over because they are actually in favour of free trade. Because you are obsessed with the EU, you think all trade deals are about winning and the other side losing (which is why of course the EU cannot agree to trade deals with major economies that just say no to their endless attempts at protectionism).

    In fact, Australia just wants free trade which is why they agree deals so fast - they are not interested in protectionism. The UK is the same. There is no conflict - both sides will get exactly what they want - tariff free trade, massively reduced barriers to trade and better access to each other's markets.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053

    They’re missing a trick not having Bobby Moore on the £20, why not Alf Ramsey on the £50?

    Surely Cloughie for the fifty?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tlg86 said:

    How about Joseph Conrad? A great writer, unquestionably of the first rank, and a nod towards the many contributions that immigrants have made to this country.

    If a scientist is called for, James Clerk Maxwell would be a great choice.

    Conrad's politics are interesting (from Wiki):

    Conrad's distrust of democracy sprang from his doubts whether the propagation of democracy as an aim in itself could solve any problems. He thought that, in view of the weakness of human nature and of the "criminal" character of society, democracy offered boundless opportunities for demagogues and charlatans.

    But...

    He accused social democrats of his time of acting to weaken "the national sentiment, the preservation of which [was his] concern" – of attempting to dissolve national identities in an impersonal melting-pot. "I look at the future from the depth of a very black past and I find that nothing is left for me except fidelity to a cause lost, to an idea without future." It was Conrad's hopeless fidelity to the memory of Poland that prevented him from believing in the idea of "international fraternity", which he considered, under the circumstances, just a verbal exercise. He resented some socialists' talk of freedom and world brotherhood while keeping silent about his own partitioned and oppressed Poland.
    The scathing attacks on Brussels in Heart of Darkness (City of whited sepulchres) should endear him to Leave, and he could be sold to the less well educated as the author of Apocalypse Now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    The DUP won’t be voting against the government in a vote of no confidence even if they vote against the budget:

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1051951042189910016?s=21

    What a ridiculous situation that would be. But makes sense for them.
    As I said on Saturday. The DUP, unlike some other participants, will have made sure they understood the rules of the game.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2018
    eek said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    At the time and given the place public key encryption was created - keeping it secret made perfect sense. It wasn't an era where machines talked to each other..
    All those things made sense at the time and with hindsight were abominably stupid. The more open Americans ate our lunch; their system allows discoveries to be exploited and their companies to become world-beaters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Politics got in the way.

    As was said to be a likely possibility later in the article though that gets overlooked and everything after the SHOULD but before the BUT gets quoted.
    But we held all the aces.
    We did. The EU had a huge problem - the treaties did not give them ANY entitlement to any money if a state left. And they were desperate for the money.

    So they came up with a plan - create a fake sequence that insists that they get the money paid in the withdrawal agreement; then claim (falsely) that they can't do a trade agreement in the negotiations so this would have to be done later and would be a non-binding promise. Basically de-link the two.

    The correct response from the UK would have been to laugh; say that they will agree the Brexit bill only in response to a trade agreement and say that if the EU really can't agree a trade deal until after Brexit, there is really not much point talking to them. Then go ahead and prepare for no deal until the EU agree to talk without preconditions.

    What happened - Remainers happened! They got May to overrule DD and agree to sequencing and then got her to concede everything else as we went along. The idea of course was that the end deal would be so bad that we would all end up remaining.

    Well, it might work but it seems to have gone wrong. Because on the NI backstop, frankly the UK public are not going to agree to that and will blame the EU because it is obviously unreasonable. So the chances of no deal at all are rising and it is now the most likely outcome.
    No Parliamiant will vote for a single market and customs union backstop for NI as most voters want in NI as the polls there show rather than risk a No Deal Brexit that crashes the economy and leads to Scotland and Northern Ireland potentially leaving the UK.

    As May confirmed yesterday if No Deal after the negotiations this month she will refer back to Parliament
  • HYUFD said:


    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.

    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    TheUK government seem convinced that if you make a concession the other side will respond with one,

    The concept of bank and thank ( you make a concession, they bank it, say thanks but offer nothing back ) is apparently unknown to them.

    Given where they are the best thing now is to take everything off the table walk away and watch the other side sweat. Barnier and Juncker cant afford failure imo especially with euro elections on the horizon and a revolt in Italy.

    They've had decades of failure to learn that their negotiating strategy doesn't work.

    I wonder if they really did believe the lies that they pedaled and actually thought that the CAP had been reformed in return for giving up half the Rebate or that they had actually 'halved the bill'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford 'Scotland voted Remain and must not be dragged out of the Single Market and Customs Union against its will'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tomfrench85/status/1052462044795015168

    Surely that's not on the table without accepting the 4 freedoms that are required for the SM.
    Even most English voters would prefer the single market to No Deal in the polls.

    Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote anyway
  • Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. Some guy from the University of Melbourne is anti-Brexit. Shocker.

    Hate to break it to you, but Australian universities are just as left wing as those in the UK.

    In the real World, the actual Government of Australia has said nothing of the sort - they want to negotiate a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Looks like he is decidedly pro-Brexit as he - correctly - believes it will allow Australia to get an immensely beneficial trade deal because the UK's negotiating position will be very weak. This is just a statement of fact. If the UK wants a deal then it has to offer the Australians more than they get now.

    You never miss an opportunity to undermine the UK.

    Australia is far smaller than the UK. The do trade deals all over the World with larger economies. They don't get screwed over because they are actually in favour of free trade. Because you are obsessed with the EU, you think all trade deals are about winning and the other side losing (which is why of course the EU cannot agree to trade deals with major economies that just say no to their endless attempts at protectionism).

    In fact, Australia just wants free trade which is why they agree deals so fast - they are not interested in protectionism. The UK is the same. There is no conflict - both sides will get exactly what they want - tariff free trade, massively reduced barriers to trade and better access to each other's markets.

    We will be negotiating with Australia on the back of having made it harder and more expensive to trade with our biggest trading partner. That puts all countries we negotiate with in a very strong position. They know that we will need deals to mitigate the harm we have inflicted on ourselves. That's not undermining the UK, it's making a statement of fact.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.
    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    Except the EU is the destination for almost 50% of our exports but the UK is the destination for less than 20% of EU exports.

    You cannot force a party to the negotiating table when they are in a stronger position
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    kle4 said:

    The DUP won’t be voting against the government in a vote of no confidence even if they vote against the budget:

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1051951042189910016?s=21

    What a ridiculous situation that would be. But makes sense for them.
    theyre telling Mrs May they can have her head on a plate and Labour not to count on a Brexit election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    You consistently seem to know f'all about the stuff you say. Colossus was *not* smashed up; a couple were retained and used for well over a decade after the war. What is more, the tech directly fed into Manchester's Baby and Mark 1 (via Max Newman et al), less directly into Cambridge's EDSAC, and later LEO, the world's first commercial business electronic computer.

    And the encryption tech only really came into its own in the 1990s, and its suppression in the 1970s made sense.
  • Foxy said:

    They’re missing a trick not having Bobby Moore on the £20, why not Alf Ramsey on the £50?

    Surely Cloughie for the fifty?
    Maybe a bit too controversial?

    Winning the World Cup, from humble background... Sir Alf surely should be a runner for the £50
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.
    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    Except the EU is the destination for almost 50% of our exports but the UK is the destination for less than 20% of EU exports.

    You cannot force a party to the negotiating table when they are in a stronger position
    what total nonsense the Irish parties have been doing it for years

    I guess they are just better at negotiation
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited October 2018

    How about Joseph Conrad? A great writer, unquestionably of the first rank, and a nod towards the many contributions that immigrants have made to this country.

    If a scientist is called for, James Clerk Maxwell would be a great choice.

    Lee Rigby?

    Jo Cox?

    Both?
  • Austen, Turner and Churchill are all after 1800.

    Any suggestions of a pre 1800 possibility if the BoE want to balance historically ?

    To develop that idea further all the people who have been on a £50 were pre 1800 - Wren, Houblon, Boulton / Watt.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Pulpstar said:
    To be fair it's smart. It'll be effectively making May's deal, the only deal.

    On a choice between May's deal and No deal, then it'll force (hopefully) parties to go for that, rather than total chaos.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Considering who generally uses fifties, Arthur Daley might be an appropriate representation on the new note.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Do they even have many £50s in circulation anymore? Feels like any large purchase would be by card for most.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    HYUFD said:


    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.

    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resu, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    TheUK government seem convinced that if you make a concession the other side will respond with one,

    The concept of bank and thank ( you make a concession, they bank it, say thanks but offer nothing back ) is apparently unknown to them.

    Given where they are the best thing now is to take everything off the table walk away and watch the other side sweat. Barnier and Juncker cant afford failure imo especially with euro elections on the horizon and a revolt in Italy.

    They've had decades of failure to learn that their negotiating strategy doesn't work.

    I wonder if they really did believe the lies that they pedaled and actually thought that the CAP had been reformed in return for giving up half the Rebate or that they had actually 'halved the bill'.
    they probably did. Our negotiators seem to think its all being nice rather than its business

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.
    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resumed and the backstop quietly dropped. The thing it seems impossible to explain to Remainers is that they have told the Government to concede to the EU at every stage of negotiations and they seem surprised that the EU have therefore decided that they need offer no concessions at all because they know May will always back down. If I were the EU, I would do the same. But if the UK had walked out and been prepared to go for no deal early on, they would have taken a very different approach. If we have always gone for CETA and the backstop was the only issue stopping a deal, it would have been dropped. But even now, the EU have only a plan from May that they have told her is completely stupid so of course they don't want to deal.

    It will always be the fact that Remainers have run this negotiation and it is Remainers who undermined the negotiating position at every stage by insisting that we would accept any deal, no matter how harmful to the UK, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    Except the EU is the destination for almost 50% of our exports but the UK is the destination for less than 20% of EU exports.

    You cannot force a party to the negotiating table when they are in a stronger position
    what total nonsense the Irish parties have been doing it for years

    I guess they are just better at negotiation
    A sack race for eight year olds is eminently winnable. The UK, however, voted to enter it with a two year old.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    LEO, the world's first commercial business electronic computer.

    My dad worked for a large commercial organisation that purchased a LEO to streamline their back office

    Affectionately known by the sales force as Lose Every Order...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,566

    Austen, Turner and Churchill are all after 1800.

    Any suggestions of a pre 1800 possibility if the BoE want to balance historically ?

    Robert Hooke ?
    Samuel Pepys ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Foxy said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    Who do you think feeds the Bellingcat? Britain's own Fancy Bears at deniable distance?

    Our spooks know their jobs.
    Bellingcat? For some reason makes me think of Cooking Fat.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    You consistently seem to know f'all about the stuff you say. Colossus was *not* smashed up; a couple were retained and used for well over a decade after the war. What is more, the tech directly fed into Manchester's Baby and Mark 1 (via Max Newman et al), less directly into Cambridge's EDSAC, and later LEO, the world's first commercial business electronic computer.

    And the encryption tech only really came into its own in the 1990s, and its suppression in the 1970s made sense.
    Leaving aside the personal insults if we may, yes, I do know, along with approximately 97 per cent of the population that the reason for suppression of pki and the colossus was espionage. I do not see how that invalidates my point. I'd be sceptical of your claim of direct lineage for machines that used the von Neumann architecture -- Colossus was parallel.

    And again we have that contrast. The more open American system led to development and eventually domination. Unfortunately, the party of capitalism is, before that, the party of the Establishment.
  • I do not believe a political person should be on the £50 note. Alan Turing would be my choice.

    I just caught up on the overnight thread and don't know whether to laugh or cry over the discussion on Scotland by ill formed Englishmen.

    It ranged from an immediate Indy ref 2 if we move to no deal, to Nicola Sturgeon being turned down by the UK government if she requested approval for an Indy referendum, to an unauthorised internal Scots referendum, to UDI, to sending the police and army to Scotland to quell rebellion

    This forum is one of the best and well informed political discussion groups but posters need to think long and hard before making themselves look and sound riduculous, as well as ill informed
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, Wren.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Or as Alan Partridge called it 'schasm' (a mixture of schism and chasm) in his excellent documentary Scissored Isle.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
    I was trying to think of a gag that ends in the punchline "PIGS in Space", but have failed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
    One problem Theresa May has is that Italy's antics are of far more pressing concern to other EU leaders than Brexit is.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Ishmael_Z said:

    You have to wonder what is the point of MI5 if they've been scooped on this and the GRU killers, and did not have the sense to monitor Eurostar for likely jihadis. Philip Hammond could save a shedload of cash by replacing it with one man to read the foreign papers and a woman to scan twitter.
    That's assuming they were 'scooped'. How do you know they didn't already know this ?
    One of the things which make me proudest to be British is that GCHQ discovered public key encryption at least two years before anyone else did, and kept it to themselves. So, yes, our security services know more than they let on.
    We are all proud the British Government did so much to throw away our lead in computing -- persecuting Turing, smashing up the Colossus, suppressing public key encryption (which is the foundation of web commerce).
    You consistently seem to know f'all about the stuff you say. Colossus was *not* smashed up; a couple were retained and used for well over a decade after the war. What is more, the tech directly fed into Manchester's Baby and Mark 1 (via Max Newman et al), less directly into Cambridge's EDSAC, and later LEO, the world's first commercial business electronic computer.

    And the encryption tech only really came into its own in the 1990s, and its suppression in the 1970s made sense.
    Why did it's suppression make sense?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Nigelb said:

    Austen, Turner and Churchill are all after 1800.

    Any suggestions of a pre 1800 possibility if the BoE want to balance historically ?

    Robert Hooke ?
    Samuel Pepys ?
    I'm with @Dura_Ace - Locke is a great call.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
    One problem Theresa May has is that Italy's antics are of far more pressing concern to other EU leaders than Brexit is.
    certainly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    https://tinyurl.com/yd6aenur

    British and Dutch ministers are facing a rail showdown after it emerged the Netherlands has led an £80m rescue package to bankroll the loss-making activities of one of Britain’s biggest train networks.

    Greater Anglia, which operates one in every 12 UK rail journeys and is majority owned by the Dutch state rail operator, is being forced to make crippling payments to the Department for Transport (DfT) - pushing its finances into the red.


    I wonder if the Labour Party will be pointing out that Dutch tax payers are subsidizing rail travellers in Britain?
  • HYUFD said:


    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.

    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resu, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    TheUK government seem convinced that if you make a concession the other side will respond with one,

    The concept of bank and thank ( you make a concession, they bank it, say thanks but offer nothing back ) is apparently unknown to them.

    Given where they are the best thing now is to take everything off the table walk away and watch the other side sweat. Barnier and Juncker cant afford failure imo especially with euro elections on the horizon and a revolt in Italy.

    They've had decades of failure to learn that their negotiating strategy doesn't work.

    I wonder if they really did believe the lies that they pedaled and actually thought that the CAP had been reformed in return for giving up half the Rebate or that they had actually 'halved the bill'.
    they probably did. Our negotiators seem to think its all being nice rather than its business

    They really cannot stop acting the Lord Bountiful / 'Saviour of the World' can they.

    Increasing Overseas Aid and Middle East warmongering fit into the same pattern.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
    One problem Theresa May has is that Italy's antics are of far more pressing concern to other EU leaders than Brexit is.
    certainly.
    The final consequences of Italy's plans are however a reason for trying to get out before the SHIF...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:


    I suspect Italy will be a bigger issue than Brexit today. Itlaians telling Juncker to clear off and ignoring his threats.

    http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/16/economia/manovra-scontro-tra-juncker-e-salvini-moscovici-a-roma-con-un-occhio-al-quirinale-p94wZgF9fmXO6fh6hSdweN/pagina.html

    Because if the Italian car leaves the tracks, it risks derailing the whole Europa train.
    the Italians have submitted the budget they want but it breaks EU guidelines. I cant see the Itlaians backing off as government popularity is at a high and the EU establishment has been incredibly demeaning to Italy.

    Popcorn time.
    What is the EUlikely to do if the Italians press ahead?
    Nobody has a clue, its a real head to head this one. The Italians are mad enough to go over the cliff, the EU is shit scared they will. It will probably end up with a face saving fudge and the Italians gettging most of what they want or just plain cheating. The EU however is in serious danger if they do as most of southern Europe will quickly join the Italains.
    One problem Theresa May has is that Italy's antics are of far more pressing concern to other EU leaders than Brexit is.
    Sounds like they should have more wiggle room on brexit as a result, but not to be I guess.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Pulpstar said:
    To be fair it's smart. It'll be effectively making May's deal, the only deal.

    On a choice between May's deal and No deal, then it'll force (hopefully) parties to go for that, rather than total chaos.
    If there is a significant delay between May's 'deal' and the vote the chances of her losing become much larger. The more scrutiny it gets, the worse it will look (ref Cameron).

    As people say, the vast majority of the UK public don't focus on this until they 'have' to. When Chequers was announced, it 'forced' attention and people needed to express a view, and they did - very negative. Since then, people tune out again. They say they are bored and just want it 'done'. But that is just a product of disinterest - when the deal is 'done' people will focus again and either become for or against.

    If the public view turns negative, as I am sure it will, it will embolden people like the ERG and DUP who want to vote it down. May's best bet it to do a deal, bask in the BBC 'glory' and ram it through the next day. December makes that impossible.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    kingbongo said:

    Having just listened to Simon Coveney on the Today programme I’m more confident than ever that the EU will ignore the Irish border problem by doing as David Allen Green and others suggest by moving the issue to the trade negotiations.

    I think the UK has some poor politicians but on this evidence the malaise is even worse in Ireland...

    This seems a way forward to me. No backstop agreed as part of the WA - but EU declare before trade deal negotiations commence that a trade deal will not be possible without a backstop, unless an agreed alternative workable solution emerges. We then at least get a WA and achieve "BREXIT". It may well result in No Deal further down the line but with more time to prepare for this.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    HYUFD said:


    Theresa May got in the way. If, in December, she had refused to even discuss the backstop and asked for Canada instead of obsessive cherry picking, deal would be done by now.

    Funny, because that is what DD told her to do.

    Remainers have stuffed up the negotiation. Once EU knew May would submit on everything, they offered nothing. Time for the Leavers to take over. Unfortunately thanks to May this will have to be fixed after no deal exit.

    Without the backstop Barnier would have blocked progression to even Phase 2 of the negotiations
    Fine. We should have walked out then and prepared properly for no deal. Within over a year to prepare it would have been fine.

    The talks would have resu, just so you can get over your shock at losing the referendum. Oh look, you are still doing it!
    TheUK government seem convinced that if you make a concession the other side will respond with one,

    The concept of bank and thank ( you make a concession, they bank it, say thanks but offer nothing back ) is apparently unknown to them.

    Given where they are the best thing now is to take everything off the table walk away and watch the other side sweat. Barnier and Juncker cant afford failure imo especially with euro elections on the horizon and a revolt in Italy.

    They've had decades of failure to learn that their negotiating strategy doesn't work.

    I wonder if they really did believe the lies that they pedaled and actually thought that the CAP had been reformed in return for giving up half the Rebate or that they had actually 'halved the bill'.
    they probably did. Our negotiators seem to think its all being nice rather than its business

    They really cannot stop acting the Lord Bountiful / 'Saviour of the World' can they.

    Increasing Overseas Aid and Middle East warmongering fit into the same pattern.
    I dont mind Camron and othesr playing noblesses oblige just as long as they do it with their own money. Doing it on the back of UK taxpayers however ......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Why did it's suppression make sense?

    AIUI because there was no commercial use for it in the foreseeable future. The only use was for secure governmental communications - especially secure military comms. If you know of such tech you don't publicise it, because the enemy might then use it. Even if you don't use it yourself. You gain nothing.

    As an example, the Russians made a big mistake in letting Petr Ufimtsev's paper on the maths behind electromagnetic reflections go public, as the US used it as the basis of their early stealth tech.

    "He gained permission to publish his research results internationally because they were considered by his administration of no significant military or economic value.[4]

    A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection.[5] This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117. Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petr_Ufimtsev

    Ooops...
  • tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/yd6aenur

    British and Dutch ministers are facing a rail showdown after it emerged the Netherlands has led an £80m rescue package to bankroll the loss-making activities of one of Britain’s biggest train networks.

    Greater Anglia, which operates one in every 12 UK rail journeys and is majority owned by the Dutch state rail operator, is being forced to make crippling payments to the Department for Transport (DfT) - pushing its finances into the red.


    I wonder if the Labour Party will be pointing out that Dutch tax payers are subsidizing rail travellers in Britain?

    I don't have access to the full article but IIRC the "overpayments" are linked to the optimistic assumption of a substantial rise in passenger numbers. If that's right, that their fault, not the DfT's.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Place of Birth

    1970-1991 Shakespeare (£20) Stratford upon Avon
    1971-1991 Duke of Wellington (£5) Dublin
    1975-1994 Florence Nightingale (£10) Florence, Italy
    1978-1988 Sir Isaac Newton (£1) Lincolnshire
    1981-1996 Sir Christopher Wren (£50) Wiltshire
    1990-2003 George Stephenson (£5) Northumberland
    1991-2001 Michael Faraday (£20) Newington Butts (Southwark, London)
    1992-2003 Charles Dickens (£10) Hampshire
    1994-2014 Sir John Houblon (£50) London
    1999-2010 Sir Edward Elgar (£20) Worcester
    2002-2017 Elizabeth Fry (£5) Norwich
    2000-2018 Charles Darwin (£10) Shrewsbury

    Current
    2007 - Adam Smith (£20) Kirkcaldy
    2011 - Matthew Boulton and James Watt (£50) Birmingham, Greenock
    2016 - Sir Winston Churchill (£5) Oxfordshire
    2017 - Jane Austen (£10) Hampshire

    Future
    2020 - JMW Turner (£20) London

    Reasonable spread - 3 Londoners, 2 Scots - no Welsh.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited October 2018
    CPIH at 2.2%, down from 2.4% the previous month.

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in September 2018, down from 2.4% in August 2018.

    The largest downward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages where prices fell between August and September 2018 but rose between the same two months a year ago.

    Other large downward contributions came from transport, recreation and culture, and clothing.

    Partially offsetting upward contributions came from increases to electricity and gas prices.

    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.4% in September 2018, down from 2.7% in August 2018.

    https://tinyurl.com/y93m63mq
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Five problems for the EU summit according to Die Welt

    Brexit
    Italy
    Immigration
    Populism
    Expansion into the Balkans

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article182197350/Brexit-Fluechtlinge-Italien-Das-sind-die-groessten-Probleme-vor-dem-EU-Gipfel.html

    I could add no leadership
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    What happened to the ‘easiest deal in history’?
    Politics got in the way.

    As was said to be a likely possibility later in the article though that gets overlooked and everything after the SHOULD but before the BUT gets quoted.
    But we held all the aces.
    We did. The EU had a huge problem - the treaties did not give them ANY entitlement to any money if a state left. And they were desperate for the money.

    So they came up with a plan - create a fake sequence that insists that they get the money paid in the withdrawal agreement; then claim (falsely) that they can't do a trade agreement in the negotiations so this would have to be done later and would be a non-binding promise. Basically de-link the two.

    The correct response from the UK would have been to laugh; say that they will agree the Brexit bill only in response to a trade agreement and say that if the EU really can't agree a trade deal until after Brexit, there is really not much point talking to them. Then go ahead and prepare for no deal until the EU agree to talk without preconditions.

    What happened - Remainers happened! They got May to overrule DD and agree to sequencing and then got her to concede everything else as we went along. The idea of course was that the end deal would be so bad that we would all end up remaining.

    Well, it might work but it seems to have gone wrong. Because on the NI backstop, frankly the UK public are not going to agree to that and will blame the EU because it is obviously unreasonable. So the chances of no deal at all are rising and it is now the most likely outcome.
    No Parliamiant will vote for a single market and customs union backstop for NI as most voters want in NI as the polls there show rather than risk a No Deal Brexit that crashes the economy and leads to Scotland and Northern Ireland potentially leaving the UK.

    As May confirmed yesterday if No Deal after the negotiations this month she will refer back to Parliament
    As I reported yesterday, the Chief Whip advised the PM that she would not be able to get a deal on a permanent NI only backstop through the House of Commons.

    He probably knows more than you.
  • tlg86 said:

    CPIH at 2.2%, down from 2.4% the previous month.

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in September 2018, down from 2.4% in August 2018.

    The largest downward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages where prices fell between August and September 2018 but rose between the same two months a year ago.

    Other large downward contributions came from transport, recreation and culture, and clothing.

    Partially offsetting upward contributions came from increases to electricity and gas prices.

    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.4% in September 2018, down from 2.7% in August 2018.

    https://tinyurl.com/y93m63mq

    Its surprising how little effect the rise in oil prices has had.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited October 2018

    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/yd6aenur

    British and Dutch ministers are facing a rail showdown after it emerged the Netherlands has led an £80m rescue package to bankroll the loss-making activities of one of Britain’s biggest train networks.

    Greater Anglia, which operates one in every 12 UK rail journeys and is majority owned by the Dutch state rail operator, is being forced to make crippling payments to the Department for Transport (DfT) - pushing its finances into the red.


    I wonder if the Labour Party will be pointing out that Dutch tax payers are subsidizing rail travellers in Britain?

    I don't have access to the full article but IIRC the "overpayments" are linked to the optimistic assumption of a substantial rise in passenger numbers. If that's right, that their fault, not the DfT's.
    That was also true for the East Coast franchise. It will be interesting to see how this (and other franchises) develops.

    Of course, there's no major enhancement due on the GEML (unlike the ECML), so nothing obvious to get GA off the hook.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    stjohn said:

    kingbongo said:

    Having just listened to Simon Coveney on the Today programme I’m more confident than ever that the EU will ignore the Irish border problem by doing as David Allen Green and others suggest by moving the issue to the trade negotiations.

    I think the UK has some poor politicians but on this evidence the malaise is even worse in Ireland...

    This seems a way forward to me. No backstop agreed as part of the WA - but EU declare before trade deal negotiations commence that a trade deal will not be possible without a backstop, unless an agreed alternative workable solution emerges. We then at least get a WA and achieve "BREXIT". It may well result in No Deal further down the line but with more time to prepare for this.
    If there was no backstop in the WA I would probably support the deal. Suspect the ERG would as well. It would be a joke to pay the Brexit bill in return for just the transition period but given the way the negotiations have been handled we may not have much choice - if we are not locked into a bad trade deal or backstop we can kick May and get a real Leaver PM to finish the job.

    I have to say I think the chances of this happening are way less than zero.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Leaving aside the personal insults if we may, yes, I do know, along with approximately 97 per cent of the population that the reason for suppression of pki and the colossus was espionage. I do not see how that invalidates my point. I'd be sceptical of your claim of direct lineage for machines that used the von Neumann architecture -- Colossus was parallel.

    And again we have that contrast. The more open American system led to development and eventually domination. Unfortunately, the party of capitalism is, before that, the party of the Establishment.

    "d be sceptical of your claim of direct lineage for machines that used the von Neumann architecture -- Colossus was parallel"

    That's not my claim. Colossus was a dead-end architecture - and hardly a 'true' computer. The people who worked on it, and had gained massive experience on what worked and didn't work with the tech, are the link. As an example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Newman

    As for public key encryption: it invalidates your point as there was no public need for it to publicised, and lots potentially to be lost. The web wasn't to exist for a couple of decades after Ellis discovered it, yet alone 'web commerce'.

    And your last paragraph is ridiculous. God help us as a country if that's the lesson we learn from the history ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    tlg86 said:

    CPIH at 2.2%, down from 2.4% the previous month.

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in September 2018, down from 2.4% in August 2018.

    The largest downward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages where prices fell between August and September 2018 but rose between the same two months a year ago.

    Other large downward contributions came from transport, recreation and culture, and clothing.

    Partially offsetting upward contributions came from increases to electricity and gas prices.

    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.4% in September 2018, down from 2.7% in August 2018.

    https://tinyurl.com/y93m63mq

    Its surprising how little effect the rise in oil prices has had.
    Businesses taking the hit? Perhaps they'd been marking up their prices during the good times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,566
    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Austen, Turner and Churchill are all after 1800.

    Any suggestions of a pre 1800 possibility if the BoE want to balance historically ?

    Robert Hooke ?
    Samuel Pepys ?
    I'm with @Dura_Ace - Locke is a great call.
    Locke would indeed be an excellent choice, but perhaps not as bankable as the other two ?

    Hooke would be a fantastic choice graphically, as his micrographia illustrations might have been designed for a banknote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone else think there's something slightly strange about a culture or country which simultaneously attempts to wipe out tobacco smoking while enthusiastically legalising cannabis smoking?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Leaving aside the personal insults if we may, yes, I do know, along with approximately 97 per cent of the population that the reason for suppression of pki and the colossus was espionage. I do not see how that invalidates my point. I'd be sceptical of your claim of direct lineage for machines that used the von Neumann architecture -- Colossus was parallel.

    And again we have that contrast. The more open American system led to development and eventually domination. Unfortunately, the party of capitalism is, before that, the party of the Establishment.

    "d be sceptical of your claim of direct lineage for machines that used the von Neumann architecture -- Colossus was parallel"

    That's not my claim. Colossus was a dead-end architecture - and hardly a 'true' computer. The people who worked on it, and had gained massive experience on what worked and didn't work with the tech, are the link. As an example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Newman

    As for public key encryption: it invalidates your point as there was no public need for it to publicised, and lots potentially to be lost. The web wasn't to exist for a couple of decades after Ellis discovered it, yet alone 'web commerce'.

    And your last paragraph is ridiculous. God help us as a country if that's the lesson we learn from the history ...
    And yet the history of public key encryption shows the world did not end when the Americans published, and it subsequently led to much of our modern commercial world, and the Americans are still in the spying game too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,566
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else think there's something slightly strange about a culture or country which simultaneously attempts to wipe out tobacco smoking while enthusiastically legalising cannabis smoking?

    Presumably the same (or tighter) regulation apply to cannabis as to tobacco ?
This discussion has been closed.