Where it could have an impact is around the margins... the ERG should have been taking notice yesterday. Continue to bugger about and you risk Brexit entirely.
What yesterday showed is that even if the Axis Of Leavil manage to make some sort of Brexit it happen it's not going to be sustainable and probably won't last very long. There failure to broaden the appeal of Brexit beyond dim middle aged and over white cismales has doomed it.
What a remarkably stupid pair of takes. You can completely disagree with the views of those marching yesterday while respecting their right to demonstrate. Claiming that they are either patronising or marginalising Leave supporters by doing so is coming perilously close to saying that they are not allowed to have a differing opinion.
Brexiteer loons are worried - that's clear. Just let them be angry...
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
Do you try to be an imbecile or were you just born that way? Given the stupidity you exude with every post I'm going to go with the latter, but that might be putting undue blame on your upbringing which makes me think you really do try very hard to be the most idiotic person on pb, which is quite an achievement given the general level of discourse we've had since 2016.
Mr. Meeks, what is the pro-EU plan to make alienated Leave voters feel other than ignored?
I imagine if we have a second referendum and vote to remain, the media/political class line will be about the matter being settled and a need for unity, heal the divisions, etc. But that's not a plan, it's an appeal for the other side to shut up and accept that democracy means voting repeatedly until the 'right' outcome is delivered.
Edited extra bit: still waiting for those extra F1 markets...
As I said yesterday referendums have proven a spectacularly useless way of resolving our differences. They do not change minds, they do not bring us together, they do not create accountability for the campaigns and their outcome is never accepted as valid by the losers. Indyref is exactly the same. We really need to avoid them in future.
The biggest of these is the lack of accountability for the campaigns. Unionists in Scotland have failed to deliver as much as Brexiteers nationwide.
Because these campaigns are not the government, they are not elected, they have no mandate and they cannot be held to account by the electorate on the next occasion. Is it really surprising that both sides in a referendum offer dishonest, simplistic nostrums that appeal to their supporters rather a considered view? Its a feature, not a bug. I think our elected politicians need to be told to get on with governing and if we don't like how you do it, sling your hook.
The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
An interesting take. My gut says the opposite, that the remain leaning Tories and labour will take heart from the show of force and be even keener, and to get that they need to resist any deal at all to get a referendum. And that might not work and instead ensure no deal.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
Good article. The strain would be very large indeed.
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.
Yes I think that's right. Even more than brexit itself things like this I suspect ultimately eclipse practical considerations.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
Do you try to be an imbecile or were you just born that way? Given the stupidity you exude with every post I'm going to go with the latter, but that might be putting undue blame on your upbringing which makes me think you really do try very hard to be the most idiotic person on pb, which is quite an achievement given the general level of discourse we've had since 2016.
LOL! Look in the mirror! You are truly the weird one! You need to look at your upbringing little boi!
Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.
You'd have found a lot of people on the march who agreed with you. The good news is that they seemed to me to be the sort of people who know how to get things done. And there were a lot of people making contacts and getting organised. I think we'll see Brexit opponents getting their act together.
The Remain campaign, at least in the areas I know about, was very less well managed than the original Join campaign in 1975. There were, so far as I could see, no local committees organising leafletting, public meetings and so on, as we did in 1975. I went and looked; I suppose I should have organised one, but I’m getting a bit long in the tooth. I recall, from 1975, sitting outside my house about 8pm with a neighbour, a (very) Tory councillor. We had been out with a loudspeaker van (well, a loudspeaker, property of the local Liberal party, on the roof rack of my car) from midday onwards, and were discussing what to do next. After all, under normal electoral circumstances we’d have been knocking up, but we hadn’t done any canvassing.
Mr. Meeks, what is the pro-EU plan to make alienated Leave voters feel other than ignored?
I imagine if we have a second referendum and vote to remain, the media/political class line will be about the matter being settled and a need for unity, heal the divisions, etc. But that's not a plan, it's an appeal for the other side to shut up and accept that democracy means voting repeatedly until the 'right' outcome is delivered.
Talk me through how Leavers are looking to include Remain supporters in their vision of the future.
For the moment I will settle for everyone agreeing that different people can believe different things about Brexit and express those views. Until that basic aspect of civic democracy is respected in substance as well as form, any idea of reconciliation is hopeless.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
Do you try to be an imbecile or were you just born that way? Given the stupidity you exude with every post I'm going to go with the latter, but that might be putting undue blame on your upbringing which makes me think you really do try very hard to be the most idiotic person on pb, which is quite an achievement given the general level of discourse we've had since 2016.
What yesterday showed is that even if the Axis Of Leavil manage to make some sort of Brexit it happen it's not going to be sustainable and probably won't last very long. Their failure to broaden the appeal of Brexit beyond dim middle aged and over white cismales has doomed it.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
Do you try to be an imbecile or were you just born that way? Given the stupidity you exude with every post I'm going to go with the latter, but that might be putting undue blame on your upbringing which makes me think you really do try very hard to be the most idiotic person on pb, which is quite an achievement given the general level of discourse we've had since 2016.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict. The latter day 'Dolschtoss' theories we have seen on this thread are troubling, udes against the EU. That said, the Leavers who accuse Remainers of treason, arrogance, Nazism and anti-democratism are not exactly helping their own case.
Tony Blair with his persistent (and usually false) demonisation of his opponents probably bears a large part of the blame, although that's not to absolve Thatcher who used similar tactics (with a good deal more validity).
It's very worrying, and I don't see how either May, or the even more tribal Corbyn, can possibly break this vicious circle.
As I said yesterday referendums have proven a spectacularly useless way of resolving our differences. They do not change minds, they do not bring us together, they do not create accountability for the campaigns and their outcome is never accepted as valid by the losers. Indyref is exactly the same. We really need to avoid them in future.
They can but only if won by over 60% of the vote on a high turnout, hence there has been no push for an AV 2 referendum or to reverse Scottish devolution and hence the anti EEC/Common Market campaign was never really significant again after the 1975 referendum until the Maastricht Treaty.
However given No in 2014 got 55% and Leave in 2016 got 52% the losers will keep pressing their case. The same with Australia where 55% voted for the Monarchy in 1999 or Quebec where the 59% vote to stay part of Canada in 1980 led to a second referendum 15 years later in 1995
London is the capital. People seem to struggle with that.
No part of the UK is particularly representative of any other. The South East is nothing like the South West. Yorkshire is unlike the North West. London is unlike the Midlands.
It doesn’t mattter. If you want to make your point, you go to London.
And if you want it to be huge you also need to go to London.
I don't see the point of quibbling over size or composition of the crowd. Were the parliamentary maths different it could have been triple the size or a third of the size and it's make no difference. As it is it provides a narrative boost to one option, which matters but is not definitive.
Mr. Meeks, you did just claim that it was a ridiculous take to ask how the second referendum advocates planned to make Leavers feel other than ignored, should the former end up winning, but don't appear to have an answer.
I do agree that the decline in civility, the polarisation of opinions, and invective ('traitors' is not a term that should be used lightly, though a small number have appeared to be batting for the other side, and hurling terms like 'xenophobes' and 'racists' around is equally unhelpful).
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict.
No, the real problem is Brexiteers are simply unwilling to accept the verdict.
A very narrow margin favour of an unspecified goal, and they have embarked on wholesale destruction of almost every institution of the state in the name of "the will of the people", which it does not actually appear to be.
Interesting article, thanks Alanbrooke. It's partly interesting because it without hesitation assumes that the possibility of Irish reunion is on the table. Even 5 years ago that would have looked like outlandish Sinn Fein fantasy.
The key factor here is that most people in GB don't really care either way (an important exception being some MPs and activists). Polling shows that Leavers largely feel that trouble in Ireland would be a price worth paying. Remainers in my experience aren't much bothered either. If it wasn't for the DUP veto in the current Parliament, a customs border down the Irish Sea would be accepted by most people with a shrug, and if it eventually led to merger, oh well, that too. I'm not expressing my own view here - I think the issue deserves more attention and concern. But the DUP are right to worry.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
Cultural loyalties often go very, very deep.
I don't disagree, I think it would fairly close, however, I also think in the privacy of the polling booth enough Catholics would break for the union so they could keep the NHS and the rest of whatever the £10bn per year union subsidy it gets.
Mr. Meeks, you did just claim that it was a ridiculous take to ask how the second referendum advocates planned to make Leavers feel other than ignored, should the former end up winning, but don't appear to have an answer.
I do agree that the decline in civility, the polarisation of opinions, and invective ('traitors' is not a term that should be used lightly, though a small number have appeared to be batting for the other side, and hurling terms like 'xenophobes' and 'racists' around is equally unhelpful).
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
56% of Northern Irish voters back a United Ireland if a hard border and of course the Republic of Ireland now has a higher GDP per capita than the UK, it is now much more able to afford to integrate Northern Ireland than it was 40 years ago and the Republic of Ireland has healthcare free at the point of delivery too
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
Mr. kle4, a fair point. Project Optimism (whilst acknowledging a desire for improvement) would've worked better than Project Fear.
Mr. Jezziah, now I'm annoyed. I could've worked in a reference to Caesar sleeping with the King of Bithynia to the attitude taken by the few (Clegg, Blair, Adonis, Heseltine) who prefer the EU bureaucrat to the British voter.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
56% of Northern Irish voters back a United Ireland if a hard border and of course the Republic of Ireland now has a higher GDP per capita than the UK, it is now much more able to afford to integrate Northern Ireland than it was 40 years ago
Ireland has a bunch of phantom money that doesn't really ever go through Ireland, at least not in real life. It means GDP is high but the people don't benefit.
There is literally no way that Ireland is going to spend 15% of its annual budget on keeping the NI subsidy going to they can have a better standard of living compared to the South. If NI leaves the Union then it leaves the NHS, grammar schools and other social programmes behind.
On topic - we're finding more and more that questions of identity are trumping questions of economics. At least until the decision has been made: we are, as humans, supremely good at choosing what to believe and in deciding that we'll be willing to pay a future cost for something (paying an immediate cost is something rather different, but any competent politician or salesman can punt apparent costs forwards enough to overcome that threshold).
I can easily see the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland deciding to go for it (with the South accepting it'll cost and the North accepting it'll mean a bit of a drop in living standards). Whether or not they'd be happy with the cost and drop when push came to shove is another thing altogether, but the odds are that that time would be measurably after the time the decision is made and committed to, and we can see from Brexit that once the decision is made, we don't like to change it. Even if we may have actually changed our minds to a degree.
Why shouldn't Ireland be the same? People are people, wherever they are.
Interesting article, thanks Alanbrooke. It's partly interesting because it without hesitation assumes that the possibility of Irish reunion is on the table. Even 5 years ago that would have looked like outlandish Sinn Fein fantasy.
The key factor here is that most people in GB don't really care either way (an important exception being some MPs and activists). Polling shows that Leavers largely feel that trouble in Ireland would be a price worth paying. Remainers in my experience aren't much bothered either. If it wasn't for the DUP veto in the current Parliament, a customs border down the Irish Sea would be accepted by most people with a shrug, and if it eventually led to merger, oh well, that too. I'm not expressing my own view here - I think the issue deserves more attention and concern. But the DUP are right to worry.
I think the thought in the second para. is right. IIRC there was some polling which showed that Remainers were actually more sympathetic to the DUP’s concerns than Leavers.
London is the capital. People seem to struggle with that.
No part of the UK is particularly representative of any other. The South East is nothing like the South West. Yorkshire is unlike the North West. London is unlike the Midlands.
It doesn’t mattter. If you want to make your point, you go to London.
And if you want it to be huge you also need to go to London.
I don't see the point of quibbling over size or composition of the crowd. Were the parliamentary maths different it could have been triple the size or a third of the size and it's make no difference. As it is it provides a narrative boost to one option, which matters but is not definitive.
I did forget to add that was of course an impressively large crowd, and not pointless, I think those dismissing it are wasting time even if it is not as earth shattering as organisers claim. I mean of course the organisers will do that they always do.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
Cultural loyalties often go very, very deep.
I don't disagree, I think it would fairly close, however, I also think in the privacy of the polling booth enough Catholics would break for the union so they could keep the NHS and the rest of whatever the £10bn per year union subsidy it gets.
Unfortunately, there are probably a significant number of "castle catholics" in the 6 counties.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
< Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
Northern Ireland would get a free trade zone with the backstop. It has its attractions. Ultimately Northern Ireland is probably better off integrated into the all Ireland economy than as a stranded outpost of the other Island, but there would be transition costs.
Total Irish revenues are €70 billion a year. It would require tax increases of 15% to fund the full UK fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland of £10 billion a year. The EU would probably contribute and it may not stay at the full amount. But reunification will come with a significant cash cost to the rest of Ireland. The question is whether they are willing to pay it.
I think they would, if the costs in question are as currently projected.
However, we are all rather assuming that there would be no extra security costs associated with a transfer of sovereignty. Most Republican terrorists seem to have reluctantly accepted the current setttlement - can we be sure the UFF would accept a change?
Yes. You can't separate the economic question from the political and social one. Brexit has reopened the Northern Ireland settlement, but it's not clear where it's going. Compared with regular bombings, the current Northern Ireland situation is a big step forward, but it's dismal against any other standard. The Union isn't working for the economy, which would be the other takeaway from Alanbrooke's article, and the politics is completely dysfunctional.
As I said yesterday referendums have proven a spectacularly useless way of resolving our differences. They do not change minds, they do not bring us together, they do not create accountability for the campaigns and their outcome is never accepted as valid by the losers. Indyref is exactly the same. We really need to avoid them in future.
The biggest of these is the lack of accountability for the campaigns. Unionists in Scotland have failed to deliver as much as Brexiteers nationwide.
Because these campaigns are not the government, they are not elected, they have no mandate and they cannot be held to account by the electorate on the next occasion. Is it really surprising that both sides in a referendum offer dishonest, simplistic nostrums that appeal to their supporters rather a considered view? Its a feature, not a bug. I think our elected politicians need to be told to get on with governing and if we don't like how you do it, sling your hook.
I think that referendums are not completely useless, but they need to be either more frequent (like Ireland or Switzerland) or not used at all.
We have let the genie out of the bottle now. It won't go back in quickly.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.
I'd be staggered if the real turnout ctual size of the march will be estimated at e Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
Jez.
But if that is so there's no reason to presume a big drop post brexit either. I have been astonished that the polling, if accurate, indicates people are very forgiving of government dysfunction and even more petrified of Corbyn than 2017 would indicate.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
Cling to nurse for fear of worse? Love him or fear him, Corbyn... well, that's the thing. People love him or fear him. If you fear him, where are you going to go? To keep him out, FPTP dictates you have no choice or freedom: it's the Tories, or... well, it's the Tories.
It's the "charm" of FPTP. You don't actually have to be any good, or provide what people want. You just have to be less repulsive or frightening than the alternative. One reason why the Big Two each spend so much time painting the other as unutterably repulsive or dangerous.
The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
There was a great vox pop on the radio earlier
“Where are you from?” “All over the country. North London, Reigate, Wimbledon”
On the Northern Irish £10 billion, that would be one way for the Irish Govt to spend their 13bn (?) Euro Apple windfall - they do get it, don't they, if they lose the EuroCourt case?
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
Jez.
But if that is so there's no reason to presume a big drop post brexit either.
Think of it like comparative field strengths. At the moment, the Jez-repulsive-field overwhelms the Tory-repulsive-field. However, the more the Tory-repulsive-field increases, the closer we get to the point where it overcomes the potential barrier of the Jez-repulsive-field (we may even have quantum tunnelling through the Jez-repulsive-field barrier already of some more weakly-held swing voters)
Interesting article, thanks Alanbrooke. It's partly interesting because it without hesitation assumes that the possibility of Irish reunion is on the table. Even 5 years ago that would have looked like outlandish Sinn Fein fantasy.
The key factor here is that most people in GB don't really care either way (an important exception being some MPs and activists). Polling shows that Leavers largely feel that trouble in Ireland would be a price worth paying. Remainers in my experience aren't much bothered either. If it wasn't for the DUP veto in the current Parliament, a customs border down the Irish Sea would be accepted by most people with a shrug, and if it eventually led to merger, oh well, that too. I'm not expressing my own view here - I think the issue deserves more attention and concern. But the DUP are right to worry.
According to Ashcroft 57% of GB voters think Northern Ireland's future is for Northern Ireland voters, 28% want Northern Ireland to stay part of the UK and 8% to join with the Republic
The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
There was a great vox pop on the radio earlier
“Where are you from?” “All over the country. North London, Reigate, Wimbledon”
Scotland is fully behind the march. Will be interesting to see new polls on support for a new vote
Personally I think NI and Scotland going their own ways is pretty inevitable. Even in NI not enough care enough about the UK as a whole and the trend seems toward smaller national identities (even when simultaneously within a larger union).
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:
1) Remainers 2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema 3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
Given 1 and 3 I'm not really clear therefore why the Tory numbers are not much worse now, pre brexit.
Jez.
But if that is so there's no reason to presume a big drop post brexit either.
Think of it like comparative field strengths. At the moment, the Jez-repulsive-field overwhelms the Tory-repulsive-field. However, the more the Tory-repulsive-field increases, the closer we get to the point where it overcomes the potential barrier of the Jez-repulsive-field (we may even have quantum tunnelling through the Jez-repulsive-field barrier already of some more weakly-held swing voters)
I was sufficiently repelled by the Maybot's use of the phrase "citizens of nowhere" that I would prefer JC to be PM. He is also less likely to lick the blood-stained hands of the criminal Saudi regime.
Ah yes, time for the scripted response of how a march means action x is clearly supported by the people. But won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
Personally I think NI and Scotland going their own ways is pretty inevitable. Even in NI not enough care enough about the UK as a whole and the trend seems toward smaller national identities (even when simultaneously within a larger union).
That is not necessarily true.
However ultimately we need to avoid No Deal and give Scotland devomax and ensure no hard border in Ireland to keep Northern Ireland and Scotland in the UK.
Plus of course the Protestant community in Northern Ireland's whole cultural identity is linked to the UK and in opposition to joining the Republic of Ireland
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict.
No, the real problem is Brexiteers are simply unwilling to accept the verdict.
A very narrow margin favour of an unspecified goal, and they have embarked on wholesale destruction of almost every institution of the state in the name of "the will of the people", which it does not actually appear to be.
"they have embarked on wholesale destruction of almost every institution of the state"
The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
There was a great vox pop on the radio earlier
“Where are you from?” “All over the country. North London, Reigate, Wimbledon”
Scotland is fully behind the march. Will be interesting to see new polls on support for a new vote
It's been said before, but it's really time for May to throw down the gauntlet to the hard Brexiteers. Publicly state that her deal needs backing or she will propose a referendum with a remain option. If they then instigate a vote and she is ousted, fine, and we shall see what parliament then comes up with.
Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
The NI Assembly should just declare itself a free city and have no customs borders
Cling to nurse for fear of worse? Love him or fear him, Corbyn... well, that's the thing. People love him or fear him. If you fear him, where are you going to go? To keep him out, FPTP dictates you have no choice or freedom: it's the Tories, or... well, it's the Tories.
It's the "charm" of FPTP. You don't actually have to be any good, or provide what people want. You just have to be less repulsive or frightening than the alternative. One reason why the Big Two each spend so much time painting the other as unutterably repulsive or dangerous.
Oxygen is important too. Between elections oppositions struggle to get attention, and at the moment attention to Labour is almost zero, because all the action is on the Tory side. Lots of people sympathise with one Tory faction or another, so while it's all up in the air they're still leaning Tory. If one faction is decisively defeated, that may change.
As a Labour member, I regularly get updates on this or that Labour campaign - NHS, rail, Universal Credit, housing - and have handed out leaflets on some of them. Media coverage is negligible. Labour could change that if they suddenly took a strong Brexit position, but they judge - probably correctly in my view - that the time to do that is when May produces an actual outcome to be dissected. Demanding a second referendum against ANY outcome is harder than demanding one against a specific unpopular deal.
There is an upside too, and we saw it in 2017. When elections happen, suddenly the big parties get equal coverage. If you've got something to say, people notice and think it's quite fresh. If you don't - and, by and large, the Conservatives appear not to at present, except on Brexit - people notice that too.
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
56% of Northern Irish voters back a United Ireland if a hard border and of course the Republic of Ireland now has a higher GDP per capita than the UK, it is now much more able to afford to integrate Northern Ireland than it was 40 years ago
Ireland has a bunch of phantom money that doesn't really ever go through Ireland, at least not in real life. It means GDP is high but the people don't benefit.
There is literally no way that Ireland is going to spend 15% of its annual budget on keeping the NI subsidy going to they can have a better standard of living compared to the South. If NI leaves the Union then it leaves the NHS, grammar schools and other social programmes behind.
The healthcare system in Ireland is fully free for those on welfare and low earners with a Medical Card ie just over a third of the population, for higher earners they just pay in certain circumstances and Ireland pays more for healthcare thsn the EU average.
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
If No Deal Remain would win if there was a referendum before Brexit day next March and even if there was not if we left on No Deal terms the next general election would likely be won by opposition parties on a pro return to the single market and customs union platform anyway
It's only just struck me the sheer Chutzpah of Leave voters who supported a No campaign in Scotland that was heavily based around retaining Scottish membership of the EU.
Not even the good grace and honesty to form a seperate campaign based on No and then Brexit.
Cling to nurse for fear of worse? Love him or fear him, Corbyn... well, that's the thing. People love him or fear him. If you fear him, where are you going to go? To keep him out, FPTP dictates you have no choice or freedom: it's the Tories, or... well, it's the Tories.
It's the "charm" of FPTP. You don't actually have to be any good, or provide what people want. You just have to be less repulsive or frightening than the alternative. One reason why the Big Two each spend so much time painting the other as unutterably repulsive or dangerous.
Oxygen is important too. Between elections oppositions struggle to get attention, and at the moment attention to Labour is almost zero, because all the action is on the Tory side. Lots of people sympathise with one Tory faction or another, so while it's all up in the air they're still leaning Tory. If one faction is decisively defeated, that may change.
As a Labour member, I regularly get updates on this or that Labour campaign - NHS, rail, Universal Credit, housing - and have handed out leaflets on some of them. Media coverage is negligible. Labour could change that if they suddenly took a strong Brexit position, but they judge - probably correctly in my view - that the time to do that is when May produces an actual outcome to be dissected. Demanding a second referendum against ANY outcome is harder than demanding one against a specific unpopular deal.
There is an upside too, and we saw it in 2017. When elections happen, suddenly the big parties get equal coverage. If you've got something to say, people notice and think it's quite fresh. If you don't - and, by and large, the Conservatives appear not to at present, except on Brexit - people notice that too.
That's just not true. There has been a lot attention on Labour over anti-Semitism, and the infighting in the Party.. you just chose to ignore it.
What a remarkably stupid pair of takes. You can completely disagree with the views of those marching yesterday while respecting their right to demonstrate. Claiming that they are either patronising or marginalising Leave supporters by doing so is coming perilously close to saying that they are not allowed to have a differing opinion.
He was arguing that if Remain wins a second referendum they have an obligation to reach out and try to heal the divide with the defeated Leavers
Apparently that’s “a stupid take”.
But you are very critical of Leavers fur not seeking to persuade you
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
If No Deal Remain would win if there was a referendum before Brexit day next March and even if there was not if we left on No Deal terms the next general election would likely be won by opposition parties on a pro return to the single market and customs union platform anyway
Remain might well win. Complacently assuming it would because if a march is stupid, not least because while the march was i am sure almost entirely for remain, there are those who would probably back a deal in such a vote and parliament may struggle to pass legislation for one if it is only backed by continuity remainers
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
This won't derail Brexit. This won't make any appreciable difference to the likelihood of No Deal. What it does do is emphasise the very deep divisions in society that have been caused by the government's handling of Brexit.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
Not convinced of that. Looking at the interviews and vox-ops not a few gave a good impression of being diehards and/or brainwashed.
All very me me me. My education in Europe under Erasmus is being stolen! (no it isn't). My privileges ! My holidays ! My income! My (presumably) cottage in France !
The Bubblers need to smell some coffee and stop being such gullibles. What happened to those extra half million or so unemployed and the 18% fall in house that was going to be caused by just having a vote?
On the numbers, all we have are a possibly-accurate number of coaches, and a big claim pulled out of somebody's backside. If they were doing it properly they would have a turnstyle and counter like the Countryside Demo, but they are not interested in that.
I would expect 200-250k, though the reasonable capacity of Park Land / Hyde Park Corner should be known, just as is known for Parliament Square.
Back in July the Trumpettes were telling us "up to 2 million" in advance, and got about 10% of that.
Most of my Irish relatives who live in the Dublin area want to have as little to do as possible with the people from "up there", as they call it.
56% of Republic of Ireland voters are in favour of a United Ireland in principle but think it is not practical or affordable in the next few years. 35% of Republic of Ireland voters want a United Ireland in the next few years (including a majority of Sinn Fein voters) and 9% of Republic of Ireland voters are opposed to a United Ireland in principle
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
If No Deal Remain would win if there was a referendum before Brexit day next March and even if there was not if we left on No Deal terms the next general election would likely be won by opposition parties on a pro return to the single market and customs union platform anyway
Remain might well win. Complacently assuming it would because if a march is stupid, not least because while the march was i am sure almost entirely for remain, there are those who would probably back a deal in such a vote and parliament may struggle to pass legislation for one if it is only backed by continuity remainers
If Brexiteers are so stupid as to push No Deal Brexit they will likely kill Brexit sooner or later or at least ensure we return permanently to the single market and customs union after the next general election.
If there is a Deal then yes Brexit would likely still beat Remain
That border is 96 years old although pretty frictionless. Better for the Brits to pick up the tab for the 6 counties, and who the hell wants to be joined at the hip with a backwater like Norther Ireland?
Sadiq showed why he would be 10x better as LotO than Corbo yesterday. Labour (and tories) should take note.
I'm sure a seat can be found for him pretty easily. But if it's early GE no time and if it is on schedule when does he move on Jez? Even bad polling won't put the Jezziah at risk, understandably given 2017.
That border is 96 years old although pretty frictionless. Better for the Brits to pick up the tab for the 6 counties, and who the hell wants to be joined at the hip with a backwater like Norther Ireland?
People may not think on the practical difficulties.
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
If No Deal Remain would win if there was a referendum before Brexit day next March and even if there was not if we left on No Deal terms the next general election would likely be won by opposition parties on a pro return to the single market and customs union platform anyway
Remain might well win. Complacently assuming it would because if a march is stupid, not least because while the march was i am sure almost entirely for remain, there are those who would probably back a deal in such a vote and parliament may struggle to pass legislation for one if it is only backed by continuity remainers
If Brexiteers are so stupid as to push No Deal Brexit they will likely kill Brexit sooner or later or at least ensure we return permanently to the single market and customs union after the next general election.
If there is a Deal then yes Brexit would likely still beat Remain
Of course few outright support no deal they just think whatever deal we get, if we get one, will be bad. Which is true. But which becomes no deal support by proxy.
But it is time for leavers to decide if a bad brexit (that is less than optimal not merely one that is bad as it has a cost) is worse than no brexit. Maybe there'll be a second vote, maybe not, but outside parliament or within it's time to decide .
Mr. Alistair, what about Sturgeon? She supported Scotland leaving the UK *and* EU in 2014, but now she opposes Scotland *and* the UK leaving the EU.
Edited extra bit: latter example poorly worded, obviously Scotland remains in the UK, but you see what I mean.
Sturgeon believed Scotland would be able to negotiate entry to the EU whilst negotiating leaving the UK.
Before we get into a "that wouldn't be possible" back and forth the European Comission was never asked if it was possible and only they could have given a ruling on whether it was.
won't that person be surprised if we get a vote and the people vote for a deal or no deal.
I don't know. Let's have a vote and find out?
I support another vote Scott, but the smug presumption that remain will win because of a large march is very complacent, and it will harden doubters considering it if said smug presumptions shows it isn't about a confirmatory vote, it's about getting it right this time.
If No Deal Remain would win if there was a referendum before Brexit day next March and even if there was not if we left on No Deal terms the next general election would likely be won by opposition parties on a pro return to the single market and customs union platform anyway
Remain might well win. Complacently assuming it would because if a march is stupid, not least because while the march was i am sure almost entirely for remain, there are those who would probably back a deal in such a vote and parliament may struggle to pass legislation for one if it is only backed by continuity remainers
If Brexiteers are so stupid as to push No Deal Brexit they will likely kill Brexit sooner or later or at least ensure we return permanently to the single market and customs union after the next general election.
If there is a Deal then yes Brexit would likely still beat Remain
Of course few outright support no deal they just think whatever deal we get, if we get one, will be bad. Which is true. But which becomes no deal support by proxy.
But it is time for leavers to decide if a bad brexit (that is less than optimal not merely one that is bad as it has a cost) is worse than no brexit. Maybe there'll be a second vote, maybe not, but outside parliament or within it's time to decide .
Have a good day all.
We have to have a NI backstop to get a transition period to negotiate a FTA ie the most sustainable Brexit which meets the aims of the Leave vote for GB.
If there is no NI backstop as diehard Leavers block it then ultimately with just 40% backing for No Deal in the polls which will only fall further once the damage to the economy and threats to the Union become clear then a Remain vote in EUref2 or ultimately a return to the Single Market and Customs Union will likely be inevitable and diehard Leavers will have nobody to blame but themselves
Mr. Alistair, what about Sturgeon? She supported Scotland leaving the UK *and* EU in 2014, but now she opposes Scotland *and* the UK leaving the EU.
Edited extra bit: latter example poorly worded, obviously Scotland remains in the UK, but you see what I mean.
Sturgeon believed Scotland would be able to negotiate entry to the EU whilst negotiating leaving the UK.
Before we get into a "that wouldn't be possible" back and forth the European Comission was never asked if it was possible and only they could have given a ruling on whether it was.
Highly uncertain promises only not ok if made by leavers?
Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
Ireland's consumption per head tells a different, and rather poorer, tale to its GDP.
Mr. Alistair, what about Sturgeon? She supported Scotland leaving the UK *and* EU in 2014, but now she opposes Scotland *and* the UK leaving the EU.
Edited extra bit: latter example poorly worded, obviously Scotland remains in the UK, but you see what I mean.
Sturgeon believed Scotland would be able to negotiate entry to the EU whilst negotiating leaving the UK.
Before we get into a "that wouldn't be possible" back and forth the European Comission was never asked if it was possible and only they could have given a ruling on whether it was.
Highly uncertain promises only not ok if made by leavers?
The UK could have asked the Comission to provide an answer but chose not to.
Government debt approaching two trillion quid Twenty years of trade deficits with the current account deficit going over £100bn per annum Falling home ownership and rising inequality Triple lock pensions and student fees twice being tripled Uncontrolled and unprepared for immigration Repeated Middle Eastern warmongering Stagnant productivity and stagnant living standards A banking crash
Government debt approaching two trillion quid Twenty years of trade deficits with the current account deficit going over £100bn per annum Falling home ownership and rising inequality Triple lock pensions and student fees twice being tripled Uncontrolled and unprepared for immigration Repeated Middle Eastern warmongering Stagnant productivity and stagnant living standards A banking crash
It's almost as if there were no halcyon days in which a government of men became the angelic choir of godly prophecy.
Raab says he is 'open minded' on using a short extension of the implementation period in order to negotiate the future relationship and to help resolve the backstop issue
Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
The NI Assembly should just declare itself a free city and have no customs borders
I like that idea. The reaction of the EU and HMG would be amusing.
The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
Why do so many ultra Remainers think that showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage is going to win over people to their side?
All it does it make Leave voting patriotic Britons think they are absolutely right to oppose you.
Wishful thinking on both fronts I think, the EU are not going to budge on the backstop especially when No Deal poses a bigger risk to our economy than theirs and NI Catholics are not going to shift from backing a United Ireland if a hard border in Ireland
And you know this for sure? Is there a YouGov poll with a 1% margin that you're about to quote?
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
56% of Northern Irish voters back a United Ireland if a hard border and of course the Republic of Ireland now has a higher GDP per capita than the UK, it is now much more able to afford to integrate Northern Ireland than it was 40 years ago
Ireland has a bunch of phantom money that doesn't really ever go through Ireland, at least not in real life. It means GDP is high but the people don't benefit.
There is literally no way that Ireland is going to spend 15% of its annual budget on keeping the NI subsidy going to they can have a better standard of living compared to the South. If NI leaves the Union then it leaves the NHS, grammar schools and other social programmes behind.
The healthcare system in Ireland is fully free for those on welfare and low earners with a Medical Card ie just over a third of the population, for higher earners they just pay in certain circumstances and Ireland pays more for healthcare thsn the EU average.
On topic - we're finding more and more that questions of identity are trumping questions of economics. At least until the decision has been made: we are, as humans, supremely good at choosing what to believe and in deciding that we'll be willing to pay a future cost for something (paying an immediate cost is something rather different, but any competent politician or salesman can punt apparent costs forwards enough to overcome that threshold).
I can easily see the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland deciding to go for it (with the South accepting it'll cost and the North accepting it'll mean a bit of a drop in living standards). Whether or not they'd be happy with the cost and drop when push came to shove is another thing altogether, but the odds are that that time would be measurably after the time the decision is made and committed to, and we can see from Brexit that once the decision is made, we don't like to change it. Even if we may have actually changed our minds to a degree.
Why shouldn't Ireland be the same? People are people...
So why should it be, you and I should get along so awfully.
Why do so many ultra Remainers think that showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage is going to win over people to their side?
Laughing at Nigel Fucking Farage is not "showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage"
Mr. Meeks, you did just claim that it was a ridiculous take to ask how the second referendum advocates planned to make Leavers feel other than ignored, should the former end up winning, but don't appear to have an answer.
I do agree that the decline in civility, the polarisation of opinions, and invective ('traitors' is not a term that should be used lightly, though a small number have appeared to be batting for the other side, and hurling terms like 'xenophobes' and 'racists' around is equally unhelpful).
What a remarkably stupid pair of takes. You can completely disagree with the views of those marching yesterday while respecting their right to demonstrate. Claiming that they are either patronising or marginalising Leave supporters by doing so is coming perilously close to saying that they are not allowed to have a differing opinion.
He was arguing that if Remain wins a second referendum they have an obligation to reach out and try to heal the divide with the defeated Leavers
Apparently that’s “a stupid take”.
But you are very critical of Leavers fur not seeking to persuade you
You are an embittered hypocrite, Alastair
Both of you are wilfully missing the straightforward point that yesterday was a protest march. It doesn’t come with a fully worked out manifesto just a single point of agreement. Accept the right to protest or deny it. Don’t disingenuously hold protestors to a standard Leavers have never sought to meet.
Why do so many ultra Remainers think that showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage is going to win over people to their side?
All it does it make Leave voting patriotic Britons think they are absolutely right to oppose you.
Surely wanting the British empire back shows contempt for both our history and current reality.
Why do so many ultra Remainers think that showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage is going to win over people to their side?
Laughing at Nigel Fucking Farage is not "showing off their contempt for this country's history and heritage"
Comments
Mr. Meeks, what is the pro-EU plan to make alienated Leave voters feel other than ignored?
I imagine if we have a second referendum and vote to remain, the media/political class line will be about the matter being settled and a need for unity, heal the divisions, etc. But that's not a plan, it's an appeal for the other side to shut up and accept that democracy means voting repeatedly until the 'right' outcome is delivered.
Edited extra bit: still waiting for those extra F1 markets...
I recall, from 1975, sitting outside my house about 8pm with a neighbour, a (very) Tory councillor. We had been out with a loudspeaker van (well, a loudspeaker, property of the local Liberal party, on the roof rack of my car) from midday onwards, and were discussing what to do next. After all, under normal electoral circumstances we’d have been knocking up, but we hadn’t done any canvassing.
For the moment I will settle for everyone agreeing that different people can believe different things about Brexit and express those views. Until that basic aspect of civic democracy is respected in substance as well as form, any idea of reconciliation is hopeless.
You're assuming that a unification referendum will be a rerun if the EU referendum, it won't be. Just as GE2017 wasn't. It will be the bread and butter issues like the NHS and welfare which motivate people to go and vote. Unification means no more NHS, that's a huge, huge drawback and there's literally no getting around it.
However given No in 2014 got 55% and Leave in 2016 got 52% the losers will keep pressing their case. The same with Australia where 55% voted for the Monarchy in 1999 or Quebec where the 59% vote to stay part of Canada in 1980 led to a second referendum 15 years later in 1995
I don't see the point of quibbling over size or composition of the crowd. Were the parliamentary maths different it could have been triple the size or a third of the size and it's make no difference. As it is it provides a narrative boost to one option, which matters but is not definitive.
I do agree that the decline in civility, the polarisation of opinions, and invective ('traitors' is not a term that should be used lightly, though a small number have appeared to be batting for the other side, and hurling terms like 'xenophobes' and 'racists' around is equally unhelpful).
A very narrow margin favour of an unspecified goal, and they have embarked on wholesale destruction of almost every institution of the state in the name of "the will of the people", which it does not actually appear to be.
The key factor here is that most people in GB don't really care either way (an important exception being some MPs and activists). Polling shows that Leavers largely feel that trouble in Ireland would be a price worth paying. Remainers in my experience aren't much bothered either. If it wasn't for the DUP veto in the current Parliament, a customs border down the Irish Sea would be accepted by most people with a shrug, and if it eventually led to merger, oh well, that too. I'm not expressing my own view here - I think the issue deserves more attention and concern. But the DUP are right to worry.
These leavers and their prejudices... /s
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.thejournal.ie/brexit-united-ireland-4215779-Sep2018/?amp=1
Mr. Jezziah, now I'm annoyed. I could've worked in a reference to Caesar sleeping with the King of Bithynia to the attitude taken by the few (Clegg, Blair, Adonis, Heseltine) who prefer the EU bureaucrat to the British voter.
There is literally no way that Ireland is going to spend 15% of its annual budget on keeping the NI subsidy going to they can have a better standard of living compared to the South. If NI leaves the Union then it leaves the NHS, grammar schools and other social programmes behind.
I can easily see the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland deciding to go for it (with the South accepting it'll cost and the North accepting it'll mean a bit of a drop in living standards). Whether or not they'd be happy with the cost and drop when push came to shove is another thing altogether, but the odds are that that time would be measurably after the time the decision is made and committed to, and we can see from Brexit that once the decision is made, we don't like to change it. Even if we may have actually changed our minds to a degree.
Why shouldn't Ireland be the same? People are people, wherever they are.
We have let the genie out of the bottle now. It won't go back in quickly.
Love him or fear him, Corbyn... well, that's the thing. People love him or fear him. If you fear him, where are you going to go? To keep him out, FPTP dictates you have no choice or freedom: it's the Tories, or... well, it's the Tories.
It's the "charm" of FPTP. You don't actually have to be any good, or provide what people want. You just have to be less repulsive or frightening than the alternative. One reason why the Big Two each spend so much time painting the other as unutterably repulsive or dangerous.
“Where are you from?”
“All over the country. North London, Reigate, Wimbledon”
One interesting point I had not seen: 95,000 'used' cars imported from the UK to Eirein 2017.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/new-car-sales-fall-10-4-in-2017-as-used-imports-surge-1.3343115
For context, total new car sales in Eire are around 130k.
That is a £1-1.5 bn trade. What is the value for the UK in that?
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'One reason why the Big Two each spend so much time painting the other as unutterably repulsive or dangerous’
One doesn’t have to try very hard now, does one.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit-the-border-and-the-union/
However ultimately we need to avoid No Deal and give Scotland devomax and ensure no hard border in Ireland to keep Northern Ireland and Scotland in the UK.
Plus of course the Protestant community in Northern Ireland's whole cultural identity is linked to the UK and in opposition to joining the Republic of Ireland
Point and laugh at the hyperbole.
As a Labour member, I regularly get updates on this or that Labour campaign - NHS, rail, Universal Credit, housing - and have handed out leaflets on some of them. Media coverage is negligible. Labour could change that if they suddenly took a strong Brexit position, but they judge - probably correctly in my view - that the time to do that is when May produces an actual outcome to be dissected. Demanding a second referendum against ANY outcome is harder than demanding one against a specific unpopular deal.
There is an upside too, and we saw it in 2017. When elections happen, suddenly the big parties get equal coverage. If you've got something to say, people notice and think it's quite fresh. If you don't - and, by and large, the Conservatives appear not to at present, except on Brexit - people notice that too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland
Even in the case of a United Ireland grammar schools would be a matter for the Northern Ireland Assembly
Not even the good grace and honesty to form a seperate campaign based on No and then Brexit.
Apparently that’s “a stupid take”.
But you are very critical of Leavers fur not seeking to persuade you
You are an embittered hypocrite, Alastair
All very me me me. My education in Europe under Erasmus is being stolen! (no it isn't). My privileges ! My holidays ! My income! My (presumably) cottage in France !
The Bubblers need to smell some coffee and stop being such gullibles. What happened to those extra half million or so unemployed and the 18% fall in house that was going to be caused by just having a vote?
On the numbers, all we have are a possibly-accurate number of coaches, and a big claim pulled out of somebody's backside. If they were doing it properly they would have a turnstyle and counter like the Countryside Demo, but they are not interested in that.
I would expect 200-250k, though the reasonable capacity of Park Land / Hyde Park Corner should be known, just as is known for Parliament Square.
Back in July the Trumpettes were telling us "up to 2 million" in advance, and got about 10% of that.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit-the-border-and-the-union/
If there is a Deal then yes Brexit would likely still beat Remain
But it is time for leavers to decide if a bad brexit (that is less than optimal not merely one that is bad as it has a cost) is worse than no brexit. Maybe there'll be a second vote, maybe not, but outside parliament or within it's time to decide .
Have a good day all.
Edited extra bit: latter example poorly worded, obviously Scotland remains in the UK, but you see what I mean.
Before we get into a "that wouldn't be possible" back and forth the European Comission was never asked if it was possible and only they could have given a ruling on whether it was.
She also believed (or claimed, at least) Scotland would have a right to a currency union with another country.
If there is no NI backstop as diehard Leavers block it then ultimately with just 40% backing for No Deal in the polls which will only fall further once the damage to the economy and threats to the Union become clear then a Remain vote in EUref2 or ultimately a return to the Single Market and Customs Union will likely be inevitable and diehard Leavers will have nobody to blame but themselves
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/consumptionperheadintheukisfourthhighestintheeu
Government debt approaching two trillion quid
Twenty years of trade deficits with the current account deficit going over £100bn per annum
Falling home ownership and rising inequality
Triple lock pensions and student fees twice being tripled
Uncontrolled and unprepared for immigration
Repeated Middle Eastern warmongering
Stagnant productivity and stagnant living standards
A banking crash
The reaction of the EU and HMG would be amusing.
All it does it make Leave voting patriotic Britons think they are absolutely right to oppose you.
I can't see it happening myself but I do think the status of NI will become more distinct and recognised as such by both the UK and Eire.
That is the behaviour of those on the contemptuous Left.