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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm

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Comments

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    First :o
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Second, like the GOP tonight?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1059973179786051584
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1059972229075742720
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Florida Governor Dems 50% GOP 48% 34% in
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Florida Senate Dems 51% GOP 49% 39% in
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Indiana Senate GOP 56% Dems 41% 27% in
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    edited November 2018
    Florida is SOOOOO close
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    FL Gov is 82% in per CNN
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited November 2018
    West Virginia Senate Manchin 58% Morrisey 37% <1% in
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Mortimer said:

    Florida is SOOOOO close

    I think the Democrats have got it.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,929
    Still early. There was a if you aren't ready for PM Corbyn you should be thread.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1059975153470373888
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    HYUFD said:

    Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat

    Freeing her up to get running from 9am tomorrow...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Ohio 12 Dems 53% GOP 46% <1% in
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    13% in and Beto is polling nearly 60%.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,491
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

    lying Ted lying stunned?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

    Its Dallas, right?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

    Crickey....lying ted could be in for a pasting.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1059975687375933440
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,929
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Holy mother tucker.

    Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

    Which are?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Hanging chad time in Florida.....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    NC 9 Dems 51% GOP 48% <1% in

    NC 13 Dems 49% GOP 49% <1% in
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    Wow. Beto just crashed to 2.7
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    The 538 Model and Betfair have suddenly turned away from the blue team. Now a 80% chance to take the house, but down from 95% shortly ago.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    FLA 26 Dems 50% GOP 50% 62% in

    FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 37% in
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    The Democrats are not going to win Texas.

    I retract my comment about Florida from 5 minutes ago :lol:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I think we could turn Florida voting into weekly sport...nail biter photo finish guaranteed every time.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Democrats projected to hold Connecticut and Delaware and Rhode Island Senate races
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat

    Freeing her up to get running from 9am tomorrow...
    She will be making her move soon certainly
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    If I remember correctly in Texas the 14 big urban counties report first, followed by the rural counties, which is a reverse of most states. Don't get too excited.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Lots of votes still to come in Broward and Dade.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmm, I think the Republicans will edge Florida...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Democrats currently have 24 House Representatives elected to 19 GOP
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1059977575248941056
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1059977362098536448
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    M.Partridge said:

    Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

    Now 32.4%, I think it's the Virginia house results?
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    M.Partridge said:

    Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

    Yep, not a lot of explanation on why from their live blog.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair all over the place.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    M.Partridge said:

    Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

    That's nearly double what it was before the polls closed.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    RoyalBlue said:

    Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

    Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

    Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.
    where?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    There are lots of REALLY, REALLY close House results.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    Chameleon said:

    If I remember correctly in Texas the 14 big urban counties report first, followed by the rural counties, which is a reverse of most states. Don't get too excited.

    Doesn't look like that to me on the map i am looking at.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.

    Whereabouts?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1059977372114608129
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    31.9% Chance for Republican House Hold......it was 5% about half an hour ago....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059978242382270465
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.

    Whereabouts?
    Generally, across the board, they're off by a few % from 538's projections. Which points to net losses in the Senate, and control of the House a total toss-up.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Florida politics must be hugely exciting.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Indiana and Arizona both looking very good for the Republicans. That means the only likely pickup for the Dems is Nevada. The best the can be looking at - realistically - now is -1. And it's more likely to be -2 or even -3.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    There are lots of REALLY, REALLY close House results.

    RCP had upped their number of toss-ups from about 26 to 38 in the last couple of days so I'm not surprised by how many close races there are.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018
    Quincel said:

    Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

    Where is this movement coming from?
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    The Democrats have blown it. I think the Republicans will hold the House and the Senate.

    A triumph for Trump.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Quincel said:

    Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

    538 concurs, evens both ways.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

    538 concurs, evens both ways.
    other way round, BF punters just reading 538

    But what is 538 looking at?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

    Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.
    where?
    A couple of Virginia "toss ups" are looking like R holds, VA-7 and VA-5.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Don't want to blow my own trumpet but I did say a few days ago that I thought the GOP would do better than expected in the House.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

    538 concurs, evens both ways.
    other way round, BF punters just reading 538

    But what is 538 looking at?
    Agree, I think the markets mostly just follow 538 on nights like this. No idea what the base info is, but lots of tossups narrowly leaning red on live results.
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    538 now saying 60% chance GOP house hold plus they are set to gain 4 Senate seats....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Democrats projected to hold Ohio Senate seat
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Underestimate election winners' ability to fight elections at your peril, it would seem.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059979110993350662
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

    Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.
    where?
    A couple of Virginia "toss ups" are looking like R holds, VA-7 and VA-5.
    they don't need them though
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1059979523561799680?s=21
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    TX 32 Dems 53% GOP 46% 1% in
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
    This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    The 538 model now has Dems back as favourites, but frankly it's leaping all over the shop with little explanation.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    edited November 2018
    Danny565 said:

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059979110993350662

    Getting a majority on the Bench must be a dream come true for conservatives.

    The ability of the GOP to get the vote out is so, so impressive.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    KY 6 GOP 51% Dems 48% 85% in
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    If I had better nerves I'd back the outsider on Betfair over and over, got a sense the markets will wobble over and over.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited November 2018
    FLA 26 Dems 51% GOP 49% 77% in

    FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 78% in
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1059979523561799680?s=21

    It aint over till its over.

    I have upped my stake on Dem taking House.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Dems went to 3 on Betfair then back to fav within about 2 mins!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    NC 9 Dems 51% GOP 48% in 10% in
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Quincel said:

    If I had better nerves I'd back the outsider on Betfair over and over, got a sense the markets will wobble over and over.

    Was just about to suggest that - the overreactions are wild.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Lying Ted still behind in Texas.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Some slight worries from 538:
    "You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    From Nathaniel Rakich at 538:

    "You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

    From what I remember the 538 election night live forecast has always had problems like this. It's obviously not looking great for the Dems right now but I wouldn't take their numbers *too* seriously yet.

    All the swinging and overreacting makes me wish I was betting, though...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    There is money to be made on BF. It is all over the shop.

    Just made a few quid in seconds on House majority. Bet on Dems, laid off within a minute.

    Small sums, but beer money.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Stereotomy said:

    From Nathaniel Rakich at 538:

    "You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

    From what I remember the 538 election night live forecast has always had problems like this. It's obviously not looking great for the Dems right now but I wouldn't take their numbers *too* seriously yet.

    All the swinging and overreacting makes me wish I was betting, though...

    It should be reminded that 538 now makes most of its income from sports and Nate silver does virtually no work on political modelling these days.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
    This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
    As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,491
    Crazy on Betfair. I bet on 190-199 Dems at 42 15 min ago. Now 3.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    538 predicts 24 Democrat gains in the House. They need 23 for a majority. That's how close it is. I'd be amazed if we get a final result tonight.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1059981237194878979
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Foxy said:

    Crazy on Betfair. I bet on 190-199 Dems at 42 15 min ago. Now 3.

    take your money
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited November 2018
    Florida Governor

    Republican 49.7% Democrat 49.1% 72% in

    Florida Senate

    Republican 50.2% Democrat 49.8% 74% in
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    West Virginia Senate

    Democrat 53% GOP 42% 13% in
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
    This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
    As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
    Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in
This discussion has been closed.