The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
I respect your view as a Conservative member and activist. I think however a big part of the 2015 victory was the notion of a Labour minority propped up by the SNP which clearly wouldn't work in this scenario.
What of the pledge to hold a referendum on the EU which wasn't meant as an IN-OUT vote originally but on a re-negotiated membership deal? Do you think an alternative to Cameron would have got the deal Cameron didn't? Would a different Conservative leader have felt bound to Cameron's pledge?
I'm also interested in how a "screw the Scots" meme plays out given the Scottish Conservatives would presumably want to maintain a close relationship with the UK even after independence?
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
Huh? David Davis? Seriously?!!!!
English voters would have wanted a leader to screw the Scots, though Osborne would have been most likely
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
Huh? David Davis? Seriously?!!!!
English voters would have wanted a leader to screw the Scots, though Osborne would have been most likely
Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
Agreed. In particular don't be swayed by the total votes - the Dems now have a shedload of "wasted" votes in California and the mix of states voting was skewed to the Dems. The Dems wet dream is that the electorate as a whole will be a pissed off with Trump as they are themselves. But they are not yet to any great extent in the states that matter. The Left under-rated Reagan and Bush junior seeing them as thick, and paid for it. I sense the same patronizing tone about Trump. If his position does become dodgy, pretty sure he will cut and run and say that he has succeeded and so can retire
Difficult to see how they (Dems) can criticize Trump without some people saying they are underrating or patronizing him.
I fully expected the EU to behave like a bunch of arrogant arseholes during the Brexit negotiations. Just one of the reasons I voted Leave.
What baffles me is why Remainers want to stay in a union run by these tw@ts?
It's logical enough to remain within an organisation you don't like if you think they'll give you a hard time if you try to leave.
The EU are acting in the same way the UK would have acted towards Scotland once they voted for Independence.
Is funny reading the comments from August/September 2014.
I think the Ed Miliband led government would have ensured a peaceful and gentle settlement.
After all, Scotland would have had the nukes in the negotiations.
Ed Miliband would have been thrashed, the Tories won a majority of over 60 without Scotland compared to a majority of just 12 with Scotland. His only prospect of becoming PM was propped up by the SNP.
Plus the nukes and submarines would still belong to the UK government and the SNP wants a nuclear weapons free Scotland
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
No Deal Brexit would damage us economically, we would seek to ensure Scots suffer even more from.a Yes vote in indyref2 (though the Scots in turn will try and claim North Sea Oil)
The English would swiftly turn from treating Scots as fellow Brits with friendly rivalry to yet more 'bloody foreigners' much as many Europeans will now treat us post Brexit
But I thought the Union was a precious, noble thing based on shared history and culture, rather than the transient utilitarian EU? I'm shocked & disappointed.
It is but if Scots vote to end the Union it will have been their decision not an English one and the English will then inevitably have no desire whatsoever to do Scotland any favours
The AngloNat Peoples Front of Judea will probably not be happy until the patrimony of Cerdic is free of the Mercian yoke. It's childish, but then Farage, Johnson et al are just the cards of the Remove... they are not serious. Dangerous, but not serious.
Plus in a delicious irony IScotland wouldn't have been in the EU nor the single market and customs unions, so we'd have insisted on inspections check.
There's a danger that iScotland would have lowered standards.
But would they have tried to banners from visiting?
I'll get my coat...
This is exactly why I think the Brexit fiasco has fatally damaged to case for Scottish independence. The disadvantages of leaving a single market/ customs union are now all too clear.
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
I respect your view as a Conservative member and activist. I think however a big part of the 2015 victory was the notion of a Labour minority propped up by the SNP which clearly wouldn't work in this scenario.
What of the pledge to hold a referendum on the EU which wasn't meant as an IN-OUT vote originally but on a re-negotiated membership deal? Do you think an alternative to Cameron would have got the deal Cameron didn't? Would a different Conservative leader have felt bound to Cameron's pledge?
I'm also interested in how a "screw the Scots" meme plays out given the Scottish Conservatives would presumably want to maintain a close relationship with the UK even after independence?
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
You think the party that presided over the breakup of the UK would have won a majority?
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
So apparently if a Brexit deal isn’t done by tomorrow the government incurs a tranche of expenditure to prepare for No Deal (why they wouldn’t be incurring that even if there was a deal bearing in mind the fact it’s, charitably, going to be a little tricky to get through Parliament I’m not sure, but there you go).
At what point does this all become a self-fulfilling prophecy (ie we’ve spent all this money on no deal so no deal becomes the default option)? Not yet, probably, but you can see the argument.
Also isn’t No Deal the only outcome that technically doesn’t have to go through the Commons? I guess there’d be a risk of a VONC but that’s a nuclear option for Tory MPs who don’t like it.
I don’t want a No Deal outcome and I think it would do significant damage, but up til recently I thought the Realpolitik would prevent it. But as we keep doing round and round in circles with the cabinet divided, time marching on and the EU not backing down, surely the risk has to be increasing?
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
You think the party that presided over the breakup of the UK would have won a majority?
It's a view I suppose.
They did not lead to the breakup of the UK, the Scots would have.
Has Brexit led to the collapse of Juncker and the EPP? No. It has stiffened EU resolve to play hardball and commit to EU Federalism and screw the Brits.
England would have been the same and the Tories would have immediately swung to an English nationalist or British nationalist platform to screw the Scots
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
I fully expected the EU to behave like a bunch of arrogant arseholes during the Brexit negotiations. Just one of the reasons I voted Leave.
What baffles me is why Remainers want to stay in a union run by these tw@ts?
It's logical enough to remain within an organisation you don't like if you think they'll give you a hard time if you try to leave.
The EU are acting in the same way the UK would have acted towards Scotland once they voted for Independence.
Yes, we probably would have, and that would have been self defeating and wrong of us.
If Scotland votes for independence after No Deal we would behave in exactly the same way, we would also be able to hit them harder as they would have no single market access to England and not even a trade deal either. No Deal Brexit would damage us economically, we would seek to ensure Scots suffer even more from.a Yes vote in indyref2 (though the Scots in turn will try and claim North Sea Oil)
The English would swiftly turn from treating Scots as fellow Brits with friendly rivalry to yet more 'bloody foreigners' much as many Europeans will now treat us post Brexit
I would hope we would not, and that more rational heads would prevail in negotiations, but it does seem unlikely.
How can anyone read these threads and not be in a state of utter despair and outrage. Lazy nationalism has broken our country and could yet do worse.
We got a new puppy yesterday. I read these threads and marvel at the angst. We don't know what's going to happen; I doubt if even Barnier and May really know how things will turn out. No point in burning adrenaline on might-bes and oh-noes.
How lovely, a new puppy. A fountain of love, fun and companionship this year and source of food after Mar 29.
We won't run out of food here in the boonies. Might be tricky in the cities of course. The living will doubtless envy the dead.
On the positive side, the post Brexit Venezuelan diet will do wonders for the health of the nation.
Not just the diet. The lack of vital meds will mean that only the fit & able survive.
If Scotland had voted for independence in September 2014 there would have been a general election in just over 8 months time.
You saw how popular the prospect of sending English money to Scotland was in that election.
Now just imagine how popular it would be in the context of Scotland leaving.
Heaven help us, we're back to this nonsense.
Had the Scots voted for independence, Cameron would have quit immediately - it's not good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party to lose part of the Union (the clue's in the name and the fixation on "our precious Union").
A new Conservative leader would have had to take on the negotiations for separation and then call a GE for the Rest of the UK (RUK is to me a channel covering horse racing) before May 2015. That would have been a very different GE to the one we experienced.
Now, apparently if we crash out of the EU, Scotland, Northern Ireland, London and probably Surrey will all vote to leave the United Kingdom which won't look good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
If that last bit comes true I'll seek independence from Surrey.
The People's Republic of Godalming?
The Dorks in Dorking
The Chefs in Sheffield.
Surely you can cook up a better pun than that. How about the Leaders in Leeds?
The Swans in Swansea?
The Cards in Cardiff.
The bangs in Bangor.
The worse in Worcester.
Arsenal is only a tube station. And as for Penistone and Shitterton...
Never heard of Woolwich Arsenal? Love it on the DLR, they always abbreviate it to "Woolwich Ar'l" on the platform indicators
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
If Scotland had voted for independence in September 2014 there would have been a general election in just over 8 months time.
You saw how popular the prospect of sending English money to Scotland was in that election.
Now just imagine how popular it would be in the context of Scotland leaving.
Heaven help us, we're back to this nonsense.
Had the Scots voted for independence, Cameron would have quit immediately - it's not good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party to lose part of the Union (the clue's in the name and the fixation on "our precious Union").
A new Conservative leader would have had to take on the negotiations for separation and then call a GE for the Rest of the UK (RUK is to me a channel covering horse racing) before May 2015. That would have been a very different GE to the one we experienced.
Now, apparently if we crash out of the EU, Scotland, Northern Ireland, London and probably Surrey will all vote to leave the United Kingdom which won't look good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
If that last bit comes true I'll seek independence from Surrey.
The People's Republic of Godalming?
The Dorks in Dorking
The Chefs in Sheffield.
Surely you can cook up a better pun than that. How about the Leaders in Leeds?
The Swans in Swansea?
The Cards in Cardiff.
The bangs in Bangor.
The worse in Worcester.
Arsenal is only a tube station. And as for Penistone and Shitterton...
Never heard of Woolwich Arsenal? Love it on the DLR, they always abbreviate it to "Woolwich Ar'l" on the platform indicators
You wonder what the abbreviation for Cockermouth would be.
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
The Spanish have no problem with legal succession.
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
It is beautifully ironic Tories advocating a policy of ‘screw you’ to a country recently voting to leave a union.
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
You think the party that presided over the breakup of the UK would have won a majority?
It's a view I suppose.
They did not lead to the breakup of the UK, the Scots would have.
Has Brexit led to the collapse of Juncker and the EPP? No. It has stiffened EU resolve to play hardball and commit to EU Federalism and screw the Brits.
England would have been the same and the Tories would have immediately swung to an English nationalist or British nationalist platform to screw the Scots
You really have a very unpleasant attitude to the Scots
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
The Spanish have no problem with legal succession.
After the way some in Madrid handled the events in Catalonia I find your faith in the Spaniards touching.
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
You think the party that presided over the breakup of the UK would have won a majority?
It's a view I suppose.
They did not lead to the breakup of the UK, the Scots would have.
Has Brexit led to the collapse of Juncker and the EPP? No. It has stiffened EU resolve to play hardball and commit to EU Federalism and screw the Brits.
England would have been the same and the Tories would have immediately swung to an English nationalist or British nationalist platform to screw the Scots
You really have a very unpleasant attitude to the Scots
This conservative is a committed unionist
Well good for you but if the Scots had just voted for independence the Union and the UK would by definition have ended to be replaced by Scottish and English nationalism
In a post Yes vote scenario the UKIP vote would have massively surged.
Not necessarily as they got 12% in 2015 anyway, though UKIP or England, Wales and NIP as it would have become would have also added a screw the Scots plank to their anti EU agenda
That's why I said the election would have been different in the context of Scotland leaving.
Actually, it's a counterfactual worth thinking about and a prospective entry on alternatehistory.com.
Who would have inherited had Cameron resigned - Boris wasn't an MP in 2014 - May ? Gove ? What would the internal Conservative response to all this have been?
Does the Coalition survive without Cameron or does the new Conservative leader end it and govern as a minority until the 2015 election?
As you say, it's a very different election - would the LD vote hold up, the notion of MIliband in Salmond's pocket wouldn't exist - what of UKIP and the referendum pledge ?
The Tories won 329 out of 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at General Election 2015, a majority of 67.
Most likely had Cameron resigned after Scotland voted for independence Osborne or Davis would have replaced them and won a majority in a 'screw the Scots' platform
You think the party that presided over the breakup of the UK would have won a majority?
It's a view I suppose.
They did not lead to the breakup of the UK, the Scots would have.
Has Brexit led to the collapse of Juncker and the EPP? No. It has stiffened EU resolve to play hardball and commit to EU Federalism and screw the Brits.
England would have been the same and the Tories would have immediately swung to an English nationalist or British nationalist platform to screw the Scots
You really have a very unpleasant attitude to the Scots
This conservative is a committed unionist
Well good for you but if the Scots had just voted for independence the Union and the UK would by definition have ended to be replaced by Scottish and English nationalism
I find it difficult at times to believe we are inthe same party.
Scottish independence eould have been the dominant issue selection 2015 and of course the Tories Tories still have added a Brexit referendum to a 'screw the Scots' platform.
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
Do you think then part of the "screw the Scots" platform would have been to veto any application from an independent Scotland for EU membership?
Absolutely, although it would have been an implicit threat, as I'd have expected Spain to do the deed themselves.
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
The Spanish have no problem with legal succession.
After the way some in Madrid handled the events in Catalonia I find your faith in the Spaniards touching.
I note that was an illegal (by the view of the Spanish state) succession vote.
It is beautifully ironic Tories advocating a policy of ‘screw you’ to a country recently voting to leave a union.
Another irony, the Tory party are now implementing large chunks of Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto.
Not my conservative party, the hard right ukip tendency maybe. I value the union and so do the majority of conservatives
That maybe but I was talking about a scenario where Scots had voted for independence.
As a result the Union would have ceased to exist and English nationalism, already on the rise as a result of anti EU feeling would have accelerated further as a counter to Scottish nationalism
In a post Yes vote scenario the UKIP vote would have massively surged.
Not necessarily as they got 12% in 2015 anyway, though UKIP or England, Wales and NIP as it would have become would have also added a screw the Scots plank to their anti EU agenda
So you envisage a kind of Dutch auction to be as anti-Scottish as possible? Okay - I'm not sure it would be easy for the post-Cameron Conservative leader to out-do UKIP in that regard.
The question would be whether UKIP would be seen as more of a home for English Nationalism than the Conservatives.
There's also the question of the "Scottish Dividend" though I suspect there would be an agreed financial settlement. In theory, austerity could be considerable relieved by the change in the finances but would the temptation be to promise a big tax cut?
It is beautifully ironic Tories advocating a policy of ‘screw you’ to a country recently voting to leave a union.
Another irony, the Tory party are now implementing large chunks of Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto.
Not my conservative party, the hard right ukip tendency maybe. I value the union and so do the majority of conservatives
That maybe but I was talking about a scenario where Scots had voted for independence.
As a result the Union would have ceased to exist and English nationalism, already on the rise as a result anti EU feeling would have accelerated further as a counter to Scottish nationalism
The union is valued in Scotland and even in all this the Scots still do not favour Independence.
However, the introduction of English nationalism is coming from the hard right, ukip tendency, and not the main body of conservative opinion thankfully
If Scotland had voted for independence in September 2014 there would have been a general election in just over 8 months time.
You saw how popular the prospect of sending English money to Scotland was in that election.
Now just imagine how popular it would be in the context of Scotland leaving.
Heaven help us, we're back to this nonsense.
Had the Scots voted for independence, Cameron would have quit immediately - it's not good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party to lose part of the Union (the clue's in the name and the fixation on "our precious Union").
A new Conservative leader would have had to take on the negotiations for separation and then call a GE for the Rest of the UK (RUK is to me a channel covering horse racing) before May 2015. That would have been a very different GE to the one we experienced.
Now, apparently if we crash out of the EU, Scotland, Northern Ireland, London and probably Surrey will all vote to leave the United Kingdom which won't look good for the leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
If that last bit comes true I'll seek independence from Surrey.
The People's Republic of Godalming?
The Dorks in Dorking
The Chefs in Sheffield.
Surely you can cook up a better pun than that. How about the Leaders in Leeds?
The Swans in Swansea?
The Cards in Cardiff.
The bangs in Bangor.
The worse in Worcester.
Arsenal is only a tube station. And as for Penistone and Shitterton...
Never heard of Woolwich Arsenal? Love it on the DLR, they always abbreviate it to "Woolwich Ar'l" on the platform indicators
You wonder what the abbreviation for Cockermouth would be.
There used to be an "Assemblies of God" Church in Malawi, where the painter had abbreviated it on the gable as the "Ass. of God".
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Is Trump ill? He is missing various public appearances.
This feels surprisingly plausible and I'm now wondering why it hasn't been leaked/publicly suggested by others. When did he last appear in public more than very briefly?
Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
Agreed. In particular don't be swayed by the total votes - the Dems now have a shedload of "wasted" votes in California and the mix of states voting was skewed to the Dems. The Dems wet dream is that the electorate as a whole will be a pissed off with Trump as they are themselves. But they are not yet to any great extent in the states that matter. The Left under-rated Reagan and Bush junior seeing them as thick, and paid for it. I sense the same patronizing tone about Trump. If his position does become dodgy, pretty sure he will cut and run and say that he has succeeded and so can retire
That's not really true of the House, in that every district was up for election. Furthermore, the Republicans didn't stand in 39 (yes, 39) of the Democrats strongest districts. This means the "real" Democrat House vote - i.e. what they'd have got if every seat was contested - would have been close to 57 million.
That is a full third higher than any Democrat House tally in history.
The sad truth is that human nature means that people act like shits because they can. Many Leavers should have recognised this before the referendum but it should have been crystal clear to any government with even a modicum of competence that the only rational response to the EU's initial time tabling nonsense and refusal to discuss the long term relationship was to use every day of the 2 years to prepare fully for a no deal scenario. Our bunch of incompetents did not do that and we will pay a heavy price.
Of course the same applies to Scotland. Anyone in Scotland who tries to claim after this that we would have a velvet divorce with everyone being reasonable, rational and acting in their own self interest will surely be laughed at. I mean, really....
Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
Agreed. In particular don't be swayed by the total votes - the Dems now have a shedload of "wasted" votes in California and the mix of states voting was skewed to the Dems. The Dems wet dream is that the electorate as a whole will be a pissed off with Trump as they are themselves. But they are not yet to any great extent in the states that matter. The Left under-rated Reagan and Bush junior seeing them as thick, and paid for it. I sense the same patronizing tone about Trump. If his position does become dodgy, pretty sure he will cut and run and say that he has succeeded and so can retire
That's not really true of the House, in that every district was up for election. Furthermore, the Republicans didn't stand in 39 (yes, 39) of the Democrats strongest districts. This means the "real" Democrat House vote - i.e. what they'd have got if every seat was contested - would have been close to 57 million.
That is a full third higher than any Democrat House tally in history.
Is Trump ill? He is missing various public appearances.
This feels surprisingly plausible and I'm now wondering why it hasn't been leaked/publicly suggested by others. When did he last appear in public more than very briefly?
The theory that seems most plausible to me is that someone close to him has been indicted and he's pissed off.
In a post Yes vote scenario the UKIP vote would have massively surged.
Not necessarily as they got 12% in 2015 anyway, though UKIP or England, Wales and NIP as it would have become would have also added a screw the Scots plank to their anti EU agenda
So you envisage a kind of Dutch auction to be as anti-Scottish as possible? Okay - I'm not sure it would be easy for the post-Cameron Conservative leader to out-do UKIP in that regard.
The question would be whether UKIP would be seen as more of a home for English Nationalism than the Conservatives.
There's also the question of the "Scottish Dividend" though I suspect there would be an agreed financial settlement. In theory, austerity could be considerable relieved by the change in the finances but would the temptation be to promise a big tax cut?
As its post Brexit vote proved once the Tories adopted a more nationalist agenda the UKIP vote collapsed
It is beautifully ironic Tories advocating a policy of ‘screw you’ to a country recently voting to leave a union.
Another irony, the Tory party are now implementing large chunks of Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto.
Not my conservative party, the hard right ukip tendency maybe. I value the union and so do the majority of conservatives
That maybe but I was talking about a scenario where Scots had voted for independence.
As a result the Union would have ceased to exist and English nationalism, already on the rise as a result anti EU feeling would have accelerated further as a counter to Scottish nationalism
The union is valued in Scotland and even in all this the Scots still do not favour Independence.
However, the introduction of English nationalism is coming from the hard right, ukip tendency, and not the main body of conservative opinion thankfully
That depends on the Brexit outcome, in the event of No Deal polls show Scots could well vote for independence
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
Agreed. In particular don't be swayed by the total votes - the Dems now have a shedload of "wasted" votes in California and the mix of states voting was skewed to the Dems. The Dems wet dream is that the electorate as a whole will be a pissed off with Trump as they are themselves. But they are not yet to any great extent in the states that matter. The Left under-rated Reagan and Bush junior seeing them as thick, and paid for it. I sense the same patronizing tone about Trump. If his position does become dodgy, pretty sure he will cut and run and say that he has succeeded and so can retire
That's not really true of the House, in that every district was up for election. Furthermore, the Republicans didn't stand in 39 (yes, 39) of the Democrats strongest districts. This means the "real" Democrat House vote - i.e. what they'd have got if every seat was contested - would have been close to 57 million.
That is a full third higher than any Democrat House tally in history.
Even in a Presidential year?
Yes. 62,315,293 in 2016, but the Wisconsin total is worthy of note 1,472,468 votes for Baldwin this year; 1,405,284 votes for Trump in 2016. That is a key state for both sides !
Is Trump ill? He is missing various public appearances.
I have been maintaining this since Sunday. A 72 year old obese man who takes no exercise has been zipping about doing 3 rallies a day for weeks. Had a stressful election, a firing and a trip across the pond. IANAD, but I would be surprised if he wasn't. Of course his giant ego will admit no weakness, but Occam's razor here.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Now that Arizona looks near-certain to be a Democrat win, and with very close results elsewhere and a good showing in the House and Governors' races, the overall picture for the Democrats does look rather better than it seemed to be in the immediate aftermath of the elections. Even so, it's not such a good result that the Democrats can conclude that voters as a whole are sick of Trump and the Republicans generally. Fairly neutral overall in terms of indicating whether Trump might get re-elected, I'd say.
Agreed. In particular don't be swayed by the total votes - the Dems now have a shedload of "wasted" votes in California and the mix of states voting was skewed to the Dems. The Dems wet dream is that the electorate as a whole will be a pissed off with Trump as they are themselves. But they are not yet to any great extent in the states that matter. The Left under-rated Reagan and Bush junior seeing them as thick, and paid for it. I sense the same patronizing tone about Trump. If his position does become dodgy, pretty sure he will cut and run and say that he has succeeded and so can retire
That's not really true of the House, in that every district was up for election. Furthermore, the Republicans didn't stand in 39 (yes, 39) of the Democrats strongest districts. This means the "real" Democrat House vote - i.e. what they'd have got if every seat was contested - would have been close to 57 million.
You're assuming that "unopposed" candidates means no poll like in the UK. In fact there would have been a poll in most of those seats. Some districts, including mine, might not have had a Republican run against the Democrat but did have a third party candidate (Reform Party of New York in my case, got ~12% of the poll). Also, most states have a provision for write-in candidates, which means the uncontested candidate appears on the ballot along with the write-in. More likely than not, most Democratic voters would have positively voted for the rep along with the rest of the D slate.
I'm not sure I know much about death - pretty sure that the brave ww1 soldier doesn't deserve it, but also sure that the comic sketcher doesn't either.
Never heard of Woolwich Arsenal? Love it on the DLR, they always abbreviate it to "Woolwich Ar'l" on the platform indicators
You wonder what the abbreviation for Cockermouth would be.
My team used to have responsibility for issuing the four character codes that are used to identify UK power sites. I did have to deal with one person who objected to the code issued (many years earlier) for Cockenzie power station. I simply pointed out the six figure cost that would be incurred to change it in all our systems. I always hoped my 'empire' would one day spread to Japanese power stations, such as Fuckushima.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Espy's 40.6% virtually identical to Baria's 39% so I too have put some money on
The special election is nominally nonpartisan, and so the first round operated as a jungle primary. The combined actually-Republican vs actually-Democratic votes were 58% to 42%, so I think this is almost certainly a Republican hold in the run-off.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
O/T Is there a spread bet on when the Sporting Index US election spread bets will be settled?
(It's not their fault, of course).
Being a good republican state, Mississippi numbers don't seem to have moved. The Salt lake numbers seem stuck at 81% in Utah.
I think they should settle MS now !
Still got a run off to go. Anything could happen.
Ladbrokes have a more interesting market with 5/6 either way if you remove 10.5% from the GOP vote (or add 10.5% to the Dem vote). I'm still on the GOP even then.
That seems like a steal to me. May have to think about it more as that seems to good to be true.
I'm happy with my bet, but do note that the last time this situation was run the margin was 10% on the nose.
Espy's 40.6% virtually identical to Baria's 39% so I too have put some money on
The special election is nominally nonpartisan, and so the first round operated as a jungle primary. The combined actually-Republican vs actually-Democratic votes were 58% to 42%, so I think this is almost certainly a Republican hold in the run-off.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
Gallup approval numbers are a weekly average of the previous 7 days of polling so if it is driven by dissing the fallen then there is scope for it to fall even further as that was late in the week.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
The absolute craveness of so call #nevertumps managed to surprise even cynical old me.
As I said at the time establishment Republicans weren't railing against Trump because of his policies (given they were indistinguishable from main line Republicanism) but because they thought he was going to lose badly and drag down the downticket races.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
It's ugly, but the dead gold star soldier & his parents being Muslims probably helped 'patriots' to accommodate Trump then. Don doing scattergun disrespect may be having an effect.
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
It's ugly, but the dead gold star soldier & his parents being Muslims probably helped 'patriots' to accommodate Trump then. Don doing scattergun disrespect may be having an effect.
Very true
Also agree with @Alistair in the comment below yours.
If Trump is in ill-health, and either succumbed to such, or resigns because of it, then obviously Mike Pence becomes President. That means the Vice-Presidency becomes vacant. Pence gets to nominate a VP successor, but that choice has to be ratified by a straight majority vote of both houses of Congress. One of those houses becomes Democratic controlled on the 3rd January.
If the Vice-Presidency should remain vacant (which has happened for prolonged periods in the past, before the current vacancy rules came into place under the 25th Amendment in 1967) the next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House, who from 3rd January is almost certainly going to be the Honorable Nancy Pelosi of California, and will be a Democrat in any case.
So, if, and it is of course a very, very, very big "if", Trump is facing serious health issues, the Republicans only have a short window to ensure a Republican succession to the next-in-line to the Presidency. I should imagine Pence, being only 59, is in a lot better health than Trump anyway, so the GOP should be assured, absent something devasting to Trump and Pence both coming out of the investigatory woodwork, of the White House until the end of the current term.
But so many improbable things have happened over the last couple of years, who knows?
Trump was criticised by the GOP for insulting the memory and parents of a dead gold star soldier, it didn't stop his base or the country voting for him in 2016.
This is bizarre. I would guess that cohort tends to the GOP. Perhaps I am wrong. Nothing surprises me about Trumpton's America nowadays.
It does, but Dem cities are always the slowest to count (And they'd swamp absentee military ballots) so the effect would be a net gain for the GOP to do it on "on the night" votes.
Voters in dozens of the most vulnerable Conservative seats now back a Final Say referendum on Brexit, a major new study has found.
The huge survey of more than 25,000 people revealed that a majority of voters in all 67 of the most marginal Tory seats now want the public to be given a fresh vote.
It comes as Theresa May’s hopes of securing a withdrawal agreement in November appeared to have faded, with Downing Street warning “significant” issues remained after British officials were locked in talks until 2.45am on Monday morning with their EU counterparts.
Comments
What of the pledge to hold a referendum on the EU which wasn't meant as an IN-OUT vote originally but on a re-negotiated membership deal? Do you think an alternative to Cameron would have got the deal Cameron didn't? Would a different Conservative leader have felt bound to Cameron's pledge?
I'm also interested in how a "screw the Scots" meme plays out given the Scottish Conservatives would presumably want to maintain a close relationship with the UK even after independence?
First Minister of Surrey, President, or Emperor?
Would not have happened.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/florida-recounts-message-matters/575614/
Plus the nukes and submarines would still belong to the UK government and the SNP wants a nuclear weapons free Scotland
The Scottish Tories would be about as relevant to a Scotland which had just voted for independence as the LDs are after the Brexit vote
It's a view I suppose.
At what point does this all become a self-fulfilling prophecy (ie we’ve spent all this money on no deal so no deal becomes the default option)? Not yet, probably, but you can see the argument.
Also isn’t No Deal the only outcome that technically doesn’t have to go through the Commons? I guess there’d be a risk of a VONC but that’s a nuclear option for Tory MPs who don’t like it.
I don’t want a No Deal outcome and I think it would do significant damage, but up til recently I thought the Realpolitik would prevent it. But as we keep doing round and round in circles with the cabinet divided, time marching on and the EU not backing down, surely the risk has to be increasing?
Has Brexit led to the collapse of Juncker and the EPP? No. It has stiffened EU resolve to play hardball and commit to EU Federalism and screw the Brits.
England would have been the same and the Tories would have immediately swung to an English nationalist or British nationalist platform to screw the Scots
They would not like the precedent of a seceding part of a country rejoining the EU straight away.
This conservative is a committed unionist
... given May's penchant for saying "no deal is better than a bad deal" ...
... one has to wonder just how bad the deal would have had to have been.
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1062073745215578112
As a result the Union would have ceased to exist and English nationalism, already on the rise as a result of anti EU feeling would have accelerated further as a counter to Scottish nationalism
The question would be whether UKIP would be seen as more of a home for English Nationalism than the Conservatives.
There's also the question of the "Scottish Dividend" though I suspect there would be an agreed financial settlement. In theory, austerity could be considerable relieved by the change in the finances but would the temptation be to promise a big tax cut?
However, the introduction of English nationalism is coming from the hard right, ukip tendency, and not the main body of conservative opinion thankfully
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2008
That is a full third higher than any Democrat House tally in history.
Of course the same applies to Scotland. Anyone in Scotland who tries to claim after this that we would have a velvet divorce with everyone being reasonable, rational and acting in their own self interest will surely be laughed at. I mean, really....
That is a key state for both sides !
I thought Charles I was a good husband?
But frankly plenty of Tories seem to favour abolishing rather than reforming thesedays, albeit sporadically when it proves a hindrance.
IANAD, but I would be surprised if he wasn't.
Of course his giant ego will admit no weakness, but Occam's razor here.
I'm not sure I know much about death - pretty sure that the brave ww1 soldier doesn't deserve it, but also sure that the comic sketcher doesn't either.
38%
That's low
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1062082071475175425
GOP critisicm:
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1062076842889351169
Even Rassie had him at -6, that's when you know he's in trouble.
Is he ill?
As I said at the time establishment Republicans weren't railing against Trump because of his policies (given they were indistinguishable from main line Republicanism) but because they thought he was going to lose badly and drag down the downticket races.
Also agree with @Alistair in the comment below yours.
If Trump is in ill-health, and either succumbed to such, or resigns because of it, then obviously Mike Pence becomes President. That means the Vice-Presidency becomes vacant. Pence gets to nominate a VP successor, but that choice has to be ratified by a straight majority vote of both houses of Congress. One of those houses becomes Democratic controlled on the 3rd January.
If the Vice-Presidency should remain vacant (which has happened for prolonged periods in the past, before the current vacancy rules came into place under the 25th Amendment in 1967) the next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House, who from 3rd January is almost certainly going to be the Honorable Nancy Pelosi of California, and will be a Democrat in any case.
So, if, and it is of course a very, very, very big "if", Trump is facing serious health issues, the Republicans only have a short window to ensure a Republican succession to the next-in-line to the Presidency. I should imagine Pence, being only 59, is in a lot better health than Trump anyway, so the GOP should be assured, absent something devasting to Trump and Pence both coming out of the investigatory woodwork, of the White House until the end of the current term.
But so many improbable things have happened over the last couple of years, who knows?
The huge survey of more than 25,000 people revealed that a majority of voters in all 67 of the most marginal Tory seats now want the public to be given a fresh vote.
It comes as Theresa May’s hopes of securing a withdrawal agreement in November appeared to have faded, with Downing Street warning “significant” issues remained after British officials were locked in talks until 2.45am on Monday morning with their EU counterparts.
Interesting poll
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-eu-tory-vote-remain-leave-poll-final-say-a8630626.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1542056726