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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,210

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Depends what time and day Brady checks his pigeonhole.
    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?
    Even if the magic number of 48 is eventually reached, the wind has gone out of any rebellion and I would expect May to win a VoC by a country mile. With respect to the Deal, I suspect that May actually wants there to be close economic ties to the EU in the long-term, so is quite happy with it and doesn't see the flaws for what they are. However, she could well be brought down if the Deal is rejected by a substantial margin in the HoC.
    I think that is premature. The reason why the ERG has gone for VONC now is because they are banking on a similar polling reaction to what happened with Chequers to scare the vast majority of Conservative MPs who just care for their jobs that May is about to lead them to electoral oblivion. So the polls over the weekend would have suited them very nicely. It creates a sense of panic and a feeling that something must be done.

    Now, TSE and others will tell you that we should all calm down, that the polling returned to normal after a few weeks and that everything is fine. The difference now is the news cycle. Chequers was published right in the middle of the World Cup and just before the hysteria about England winning the World Cup reached its peak. It was therefore subsumed by the other news (remember The Sun telling the politicians not to ruin the World Cup).

    Now, there is no comparable news event to "hide" things. Up to Christmas, it will be all about Brexit. The ERG will be there explaining why the deal is so bad and, in likelihood, create the view that TM has sold out - which will hit the Conservatives in the polls and so feed the argument that TM must be replaced. It actually isn't a bad strategy from the ERG's standpoint.

    The Tories still on 36% is not 'electoral oblivion' it would still give them more seats than Corbyn has now and match the voteshare Cameron got.

    Still plenty of time for Kipper protest voters to finish their tantrum when faced with the prospect of PM Corbyn as well as was the case post Chequers Deal
    Assuming they stay on 36%. A few weeks of continual debate over how TM has sold out over Brexit plus the less than helpful comments we are likely to get from members of the EU over the UK having to suck it up may change that 36%
    No Deal it would be 26% never mind 36%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,210

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Don’t think that follows. They aren’t just going to see it as a single issue vote on the deal - they have to take into account what commitments she could make on the future relationship, extending the transition etc etc if she had a year free from challenge.

    Without the 12 month limitation I would agree with you that the VONC is nothing more than a proxy vote on the deal.
    If you back the Deal you back May and most Tory MPs do and that includes on the extra year transition if needed which is already included
    That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.
    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee
  • HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    I have been saying that for a long time

    Last night 18 labour mps were named who will not support a second referedum

    If so do they support the deal as I cannot see them supporting no deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,692

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Can someone with half a mind to remove May send half a letter?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.

    The main causal factor in the balls-up was the contradictory promises of the leave campaign during the referendum.

    I'm not sure anyone could have squared that particular circle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,836

    TOPPING said:


    And be replaced by who?

    Personally I would prefer Javid or Gove or practically anyone not being influenced by Olly Robbins. May has been a disaster in just about every role she has ever held in Government. Right now I would prefer Corbyn running things to May.
    What would you have liked different in the deal or are you a no deal fantasist?
  • The Other has to be Green or Not Vote. Can't see it being more than a tiny few who are moving to UKIP.
  • the Lib Dems are underperforming still!!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,879
    HYUFD said:


    I am sorry but fanatics like you make up a third of Tory MPs at most.

    No Deal would be worse than the Poll Tax for Tory fortunes

    So you concede it's possible at least a third of the Parliamentary Party will either vote against May in a VoNC or abstain - that would give her 210 MPs - yes, that would be okay for her survival but that's all and hardly a ringing endorsement. Below 200 and May is in real trouble.

    The second part of your comment is the issue - there are those who believe "No Deal" won't be the Armageddon forecast by Carney and others. Yes, there may be some minor short-term disruption but the world will keep on turning and those who want to trade and make money with the UK will continue to do so.

    The Project Fear instigated by the pro-Deal lobby like you is aimed solely at cowering the doubtful and the dubious into line - they recognise the Deal has no merit but have been so brainwashed into thinking leaving without a Deal is analogous to a large asteroid strike that they cling to May and the Deal out of fear.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,737
    edited November 2018

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Can someone with half a mind to remove May send half a letter?
    They are at 46 according to "a senior Brexiteer".

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    And be replaced by who?

    Personally I would prefer Javid or Gove or practically anyone not being influenced by Olly Robbins. May has been a disaster in just about every role she has ever held in Government. Right now I would prefer Corbyn running things to May.
    What would you have liked different in the deal or are you a no deal fantasist?
    The big problem for me with the deal is the backstop and the customs union. This was a stupid thing to have agreed in the first place but now we are where we are I am a reluctant supporter of the deal. Given I was never a purist and would have preferred something very close to EFTA /EEA membership much of what exercises others is not a problem for me.


    There are lots of little things that make it a shit deal but they were all the result of decisions May made many months ago so there is nothing we can do about those. Hence the reason I would back the deal but get rid of May as soon as possible.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,103

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Can someone with half a mind to remove May send half a letter?
    They are 46 according to "a senior Brexiteer".

    Using the Matt Chorley maxim, that will be Bridgen then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,929
    The ballot design in (Democrat run) Broward County might have cost the Democrats the Senate seat:
    https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/11/18/facing-suspension-by-governor-browards-election-chief-calls-it-quits-703498
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,836

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    We will have to leave. The deal is pretty suboptimal but I don't see an alternative for the moment. A second referendum would be inappropriate because no one has sought it as a part of a manifesto and hence it would be "the elite" deciding we needed one and we know how that campaign would then be fought.

    The dichotomy of course being that a (second) referendum cannot be undemocratic as it is asking the people. It's just that I don't see how we get to there from here unless Lab sticks it in its manifesto and they come to power.
  • That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.

    The main causal factor in the balls-up was the contradictory promises of the leave campaign during the referendum.

    I'm not sure anyone could have squared that particular circle.
    Nope the main cause was May agreeing to things that were entirely unnecessary such as the scheduling and the backstop. The EU must have thought all their Christmases had come at once when she caved on those. They are probably sorry they didn't ask for all our firstborn as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,929

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Can someone with half a mind to remove May send half a letter?
    Half a mind probably just about qualifies several ERGers.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,103
    "Sir, How uniquely fortunate we are in the quality of our MPs. Nearly every one of them, apparently, is a skilled negotiator, who could have secured a better deal than Theresa May. They are also gifted speed-readers, able to master a dense and complex legal document of more than 500 pages in less than 24 hours. A few, such as Boris Johnson, were able to intuit its contents even before reading it. Woody Allen, the comedian, is similarly gifted. After taking a speed-reading course, he was able to master War and Peace in an hour, declaring: “It’s about Russia.”

    Vernon Bogdanor
    Professor of government, King’s College, London"



  • HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no

    If the result is no to the deal second ballot is simple Leave (no Deal) or Remain
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
    Rejoin with Euro Schengen has no chance. I voted Remain and back May's Deal but even I would vote for No Deal over that.
    I know we are all scared of full membership. Our half in half out rebate obsessed 2nd class membership is absolutely stupid. Either go in and commit or leave. I know full membership wouldn't be an option, but it is the only sensible remain choice.
    Rubbish. Otherwise Poland, Sweden and Denmark would have to leave the EU too
    Bear in mind that Poland and Sweden could be said to be in breach of their treaty obligations. As things progress in the EU this will become a much bigger issue for them.
  • HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,879
    Morning all :)

    In the real world:

    https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/11/london-boroughs-demand-tax-powers-ease-funding-pressure?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    Interesting all the Boroughs have signed up to this. Clearly, there's a considerable sum raised in property taxation across London which could be repatriated to the local authorities.

    It's an interesting question - shouldn't local authorities get to keep taxes raised locally such as property-related taxes and use them to relieve local appending pressures?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,929
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    We will have to leave. The deal is pretty suboptimal but I don't see an alternative for the moment. A second referendum would be inappropriate because no one has sought it as a part of a manifesto and hence it would be "the elite" deciding we needed one and we know how that campaign would then be fought.

    The dichotomy of course being that a (second) referendum cannot be undemocratic as it is asking the people. It's just that I don't see how we get to there from here unless Lab sticks it in its manifesto and they come to power.
    A second referendum could only happen if the May deal gets torpedoed.
    Whatever follows that would be 'suboptimal' - but an alliance of Labour, Conservative and LibDem MPs (which would be necessary for it to have any chance of happening) voting for one could hardly be dismissed as antidemocratic.
  • HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    Richard, you said below you would get rid of May "as soon as possible" - would that be before or after the WA goes to parliament to vote on?
  • HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    It will, but MPs will live with that unless we get UKIP 2.0 which threaten the main parties.

    If the Tory party still exists of course.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,679

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    As a Remainer, I agree that "remaining in without a referendum win for remain" would be a big mistake... but Slackbladder and HYUFD are surely talking about remain arising from the possibility of a 2nd Referendum?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.

    The main causal factor in the balls-up was the contradictory promises of the leave campaign during the referendum.

    I'm not sure anyone could have squared that particular circle.
    Nope the main cause was May agreeing to things that were entirely unnecessary such as the scheduling and the backstop. The EU must have thought all their Christmases had come at once when she caved on those. They are probably sorry they didn't ask for all our firstborn as well.
    Well, I fundamentally disagree.

    I'm far from saying that May's got everything right, but she was put in an impossible situation by the uncertainty about what leave meant -and that was due to the deliberately varying promises of the leave campaigns.

    I couldn't have done better. You couldn't have done better. I doubt anyone could have done better.
  • HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    Richard, you said below you would get rid of May "as soon as possible" - would that be before or after the WA goes to parliament to vote on?
    Not sure. It would depend on whether it would threaten or enhance the chances of the deal passing. Which none of us can really know as it would depend on who succeeded her.
    I suspect on balance I would wait.
  • HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    As a Remainer, I agree that "remaining in without a referendum win for remain" would be a big mistake... but Slackbladder and HYUFD are surely talking about remain arising from the possibility of a 2nd Referendum?
    Indeed. May goes, the ERG threaten no-real, the pressure on remainer Tory MP's and Labour to get a scond referendum would be huge.

    It would likely split the Tory party, but then this might be bigger than that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,679
    matt said:

    "Sir, How uniquely fortunate we are in the quality of our MPs. Nearly every one of them, apparently, is a skilled negotiator, who could have secured a better deal than Theresa May. They are also gifted speed-readers, able to master a dense and complex legal document of more than 500 pages in less than 24 hours. A few, such as Boris Johnson, were able to intuit its contents even before reading it. Woody Allen, the comedian, is similarly gifted. After taking a speed-reading course, he was able to master War and Peace in an hour, declaring: “It’s about Russia.”

    Vernon Bogdanor
    Professor of government, King’s College, London"



    Great letter - was it in one of today's papers?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    As a Remainer, I agree that "remaining in without a referendum win for remain" would be a big mistake... but Slackbladder and HYUFD are surely talking about remain arising from the possibility of a 2nd Referendum?
    Ah yes, fair enough. However there be dragons in that direction as well ...
  • Mr. Jessop, I agree with the first part of that, but May could've, and should've settled the official UK position before triggering Article 50 (and an unnecessary General Election). You could've done better, and sell yourself short by suggesting otherwise.
  • HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    It does seem to me that disappointed brexiteers are intent on making sure the economy is trashed just because they did not get their idealistic brexit.

    Some would say it is a view, many would say it is childish

    That is not to say that this TM loyalist does not agree that post Brexit in March TM should stand down in the interest of the party and let a unity candidate replace her to provide a new impetus to the actual trade deal process

    In these circumstances TM will have achieved brexit against all odds and it is upto others to make the success their seek, but she will be very well respected across the political spectrum
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    In the real world:

    https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/11/london-boroughs-demand-tax-powers-ease-funding-pressure?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    Interesting all the Boroughs have signed up to this. Clearly, there's a considerable sum raised in property taxation across London which could be repatriated to the local authorities.

    It's an interesting question - shouldn't local authorities get to keep taxes raised locally such as property-related taxes and use them to relieve local appending pressures?

    Yes they should.
  • matt said:

    "Sir, How uniquely fortunate we are in the quality of our MPs. Nearly every one of them, apparently, is a skilled negotiator, who could have secured a better deal than Theresa May. They are also gifted speed-readers, able to master a dense and complex legal document of more than 500 pages in less than 24 hours. A few, such as Boris Johnson, were able to intuit its contents even before reading it. Woody Allen, the comedian, is similarly gifted. After taking a speed-reading course, he was able to master War and Peace in an hour, declaring: “It’s about Russia.”

    Vernon Bogdanor
    Professor of government, King’s College, London"



    To be fair, there were a number of pb-ers who'd read and approved the deal document within a few minutes of its launch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,679
    47 or 48 seems to be a total irrelevance:

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,906
    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?
  • geoffw said:

    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?

    Robert Smithson said he believed the real obligation was between £5 billion and £10 billion I think.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,580
    edited November 2018
    TOPPING said:


    We will have to leave. The deal is pretty suboptimal but I don't see an alternative for the moment. A second referendum would be inappropriate because no one has sought it as a part of a manifesto and hence it would be "the elite" deciding we needed one and we know how that campaign would then be fought.

    If you're going to find an "elite" somewhere I don't think you can get much eliter than the small, appointed insider teams who write the parties' manifestos. If the thing the voters want isn't selected by the manifesto-writing elites than there's nothing they can do about it, except possibly somehow coming up with a way for all the parties to lose, which as it turns out is what they did.
  • matt said:

    "Sir, How uniquely fortunate we are in the quality of our MPs. Nearly every one of them, apparently, is a skilled negotiator, who could have secured a better deal than Theresa May. They are also gifted speed-readers, able to master a dense and complex legal document of more than 500 pages in less than 24 hours. A few, such as Boris Johnson, were able to intuit its contents even before reading it. Woody Allen, the comedian, is similarly gifted. After taking a speed-reading course, he was able to master War and Peace in an hour, declaring: “It’s about Russia.”

    Vernon Bogdanor
    Professor of government, King’s College, London"



    Great letter - was it in one of today's papers?
    Nails it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,679
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    As a Remainer, I agree that "remaining in without a referendum win for remain" would be a big mistake... but Slackbladder and HYUFD are surely talking about remain arising from the possibility of a 2nd Referendum?
    Ah yes, fair enough. However there be dragons in that direction as well ...
    On which point, I agree. Which is why I think that, in the absence of a time machine, the way to make the best of this bad job is to accept May's deal and move on!
  • HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    You need to think this through a little more. Say the Brexit project fails and re end up remaining in the EU.

    What then?

    We have had a referendum in which there was a winner, and that winner's views have been ignored. Nothing will have been settled, and we'll just have ongoing political and social chaos as the question has not been resolved.

    That is, *if* the EU allow us to remain on anything approaching favourable terms (e.g.the terms we were on, or Cameron's renegotiation). I doubt they will.

    However I am certain that remaining in without a referendum win for remain - and preferably a large one - would be a bad idea.
    As a Remainer, I agree that "remaining in without a referendum win for remain" would be a big mistake... but Slackbladder and HYUFD are surely talking about remain arising from the possibility of a 2nd Referendum?
    Indeed. May goes, the ERG threaten no-real, the pressure on remainer Tory MP's and Labour to get a scond referendum would be huge.

    It would likely split the Tory party, but then this might be bigger than that.
    This is bigger than party politics
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,692

    HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    It does seem to me that disappointed brexiteers are intent on making sure the economy is trashed just because they did not get their idealistic brexit.

    Some would say it is a view, many would say it is childish

    That is not to say that this TM loyalist does not agree that post Brexit in March TM should stand down in the interest of the party and let a unity candidate replace her to provide a new impetus to the actual trade deal process

    In these circumstances TM will have achieved brexit against all odds and it is upto others to make the success their seek, but she will be very well respected across the political spectrum
    Big_G, if you think she should stand down in March, you are already a long way along the road of

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
    It were done quickly: if the assassination
    Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
    With his surcease success; that but this blow
    Might be the be-all and the end-all here..."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,368
    edited November 2018

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Can someone with half a mind to remove May send half a letter?
    They are at 46 according to "a senior Brexiteer".

    Interesting. Will they be able to persuade an extra two in the next few hours?

    New thread.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,510

    matt said:

    "Sir, How uniquely fortunate we are in the quality of our MPs. Nearly every one of them, apparently, is a skilled negotiator, who could have secured a better deal than Theresa May. They are also gifted speed-readers, able to master a dense and complex legal document of more than 500 pages in less than 24 hours. A few, such as Boris Johnson, were able to intuit its contents even before reading it. Woody Allen, the comedian, is similarly gifted. After taking a speed-reading course, he was able to master War and Peace in an hour, declaring: “It’s about Russia.”

    Vernon Bogdanor
    Professor of government, King’s College, London"



    Great letter - was it in one of today's papers?
    Nails it
    How many pages did you read before deciding you supported it?
  • geoffw said:

    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?

    Robert Smithson said he believed the real obligation was between £5 billion and £10 billion I think.

    The €39bn includes budget contributions to the end of the transition, which would be more than €10bn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,966

    Off-topic:

    Chaos in south London this morning after all services into Waterloo cancelled due to overrunning works by the nationalised Network Rail.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-46258720

    Can someone explain how renationalisation is supposed to 'fix' the network, when it is the nationalised part that is routinely failing the public?

    Seperating infrastructure from the services using it it dumb in the case of railways.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,363
    Labour should just back remain already. Starmer is getting them there and exact same benefits requires it. It might be just far enough ahead of a big switch in public opinion to not take a hit as well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Mr. Jessop, I agree with the first part of that, but May could've, and should've settled the official UK position before triggering Article 50 (and an unnecessary General Election). You could've done better, and sell yourself short by suggesting otherwise.

    How could she settle the official UK position when it's proven impossible to agree such a position?

    We have a bunch of leaver and Brexiteer children who all have disparate views on what Brexit means, and are willing to crash the country into a brick wall if their views are not met. All because they are utterly unwilling to compromise.

    I couldn't have done better. Neither could you. Neither could *anyone* on here. We can look back with 20/20 hindsight and say: "If May had done this...". Which is fair enough: except every course of action would have ended in the mire - because idiots are not willing to compromise.

    And again, this is down to the leave campaigns. Every leaver can point at the campaigns and say it means their views should be met. Which is fine, except other leavers differ, and many of those views involve dramatic hardship for the country.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,363

    TOPPING said:


    And be replaced by who?

    Personally I would prefer Javid or Gove or practically anyone not being influenced by Olly Robbins. May has been a disaster in just about every role she has ever held in Government. Right now I would prefer Corbyn running things to May.
    If you think they all bend to the will of an official you don't think much of any of them.
  • geoffw said:

    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?

    It has been stated that 30 billion is payable under the obligations of the present treaty over the next 45 years. The 9 billion is available but this is far from the Peter Bone school of 'sod em', we will use the 39 billion all to ourselves
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,692

    The Other has to be Green or Not Vote. Can't see it being more than a tiny few who are moving to UKIP.
    Pirates....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,363
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Think tomorrow is THE day.

    If they don't get 48 letters tomorrow ERG is indeed all piss and wind!

    We shall see....
    My guess is Baker and Mogg have been led up the garden path by MPs who talk a good rebellion in the Red Lion after 4 pints, but don't actually write any letters.

    We shall see tomorrow.
    That would be divine justice for the people who led the country up the garden path by spouting tosh from the saloon bar but didn't actually have any plan.
    They have some plans now. It's just a bit er hopeful.

    And the divine justice is that we may well remain now because of them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,966
    Nigelb said:

    The ballot design in (Democrat run) Broward County might have cost the Democrats the Senate seat:
    https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/11/18/facing-suspension-by-governor-browards-election-chief-calls-it-quits-703498

    No, the undervote was split evenly between the candidates. It was just a terrible design, not a skewed terrible design.
  • geoffw said:

    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?

    Robert Smithson said he believed the real obligation was between £5 billion and £10 billion I think.
    The other way round. 30 billion is the present treaty obligation over the next 45 years
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,363
    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Obviously you cannot. When it comes to votes and thresholds it makes no sense. If a quorum is a quarter of 15 you need 4 as 3 hasn't reached 3.75.
  • That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.

    The main causal factor in the balls-up was the contradictory promises of the leave campaign during the referendum.

    I'm not sure anyone could have squared that particular circle.
    Nope the main cause was May agreeing to things that were entirely unnecessary such as the scheduling and the backstop. The EU must have thought all their Christmases had come at once when she caved on those. They are probably sorry they didn't ask for all our firstborn as well.
    Well, I fundamentally disagree.

    I'm far from saying that May's got everything right, but she was put in an impossible situation by the uncertainty about what leave meant -and that was due to the deliberately varying promises of the leave campaigns.

    I couldn't have done better. You couldn't have done better. I doubt anyone could have done better.
    There are any number of people who could certainly have done better.

    Those who understood that Brexit had to be negotiated from a position of strength and so were willing to spend the money necessary to prepare for a No Deal rather than making it clear all along through their actions that No Deal was never an option.

    Those who realised that Brexit had to represent the whole country not just those who voted Leave and so were willing to stand up to the anti-Immigration lobby and negotiate a Brexit based on an EFTA type arrangement that reflected the wishes of the whole population not just a sub-set of Leave voters.

    Those who actually believed in Brexit rather than being forced reluctantly to negotiate something they had not supported, just so they could stay in power.

    Those who didn't use successive Brexit secretaries as a smoke screen for their own failings.

    Those who didn't make fundamental mistakes by agreeing to things such as the Irish backstop that were entirely unnecessary.

    The uncertainty about what Brexit actually meant, meant that May had the scope to craft a version that she could claim represented the best of what people wanted. Instead she used it as an excuse to craft the worst.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 478

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Assuming they stay on 36%. A few weeks of continual debate over how TM has sold out over Brexit plus the less than helpful comments we are likely to get from members of the EU over the UK having to suck it up may change that 36%
    Yes it might... it might actually see the collapse of the party altogether. The choice is this deal, catastrophic no deal or a referendum. If, having pushed themselves to a frenzy to get out of the EU they can't actually deliver anything but no-deal, then Nadine "why can't we still have MEPs" Dorries and Dominic "where is Dover" Raab will go from being the butt of jokes to being public enemies.

    Even pro-Tory Business is aghast at the no-deal risk in current situation and the Tories rely on the cash to fill the gap left by plummeting membership. If the worst happens, CCHQ will lose donations worth millions. No money=major problems.

    In any event, I think there is a chance that BoJo will lose his seat anyway, but I think there could be a whole lot of other Portillo moments...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Alistair said:

    Off-topic:

    Chaos in south London this morning after all services into Waterloo cancelled due to overrunning works by the nationalised Network Rail.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-46258720

    Can someone explain how renationalisation is supposed to 'fix' the network, when it is the nationalised part that is routinely failing the public?

    Seperating infrastructure from the services using it it dumb in the case of railways.
    No, it isn't. It is meant to allow other operators to fairly use the infrastructure, which is a boon (particularly in the case of mainland Europe, slightly less here in the UK).

    It also ignores that under BR, infrastructure was run by a different part of the organisation to operations, and they were not necessarily good at communicating back then ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 24,804

    HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    It does seem to me that disappointed brexiteers are intent on making sure the economy is trashed just because they did not get their idealistic brexit.

    Some would say it is a view, many would say it is childish

    That is not to say that this TM loyalist does not agree that post Brexit in March TM should stand down in the interest of the party and let a unity candidate replace her to provide a new impetus to the actual trade deal process

    In these circumstances TM will have achieved brexit against all odds and it is upto others to make the success their seek, but she will be very well respected across the political spectrum
    Nice thoughts G, reality is she will stick it out till she is booted out, her ego is too big.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,363

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    I have been saying that for a long time

    Last night 18 labour mps were named who will not support a second referedum

    If so do they support the deal as I cannot see them supporting no deal
    The answer is no they won't. Why would they, the deal won't pass anyway non point getting deselected over it.

    May needs to survive to a vote in the commons on the deal. I want to know for sure what each have every mp thinks and is prepared to risk on this. They can justify anything they choose then.
  • geoffw said:

    I'm unclear about the status of the £39b.
    May has said, very properly, that the UK honours its obligations. But is the £39b actually an obligation, or is at least part of it a quid pro quo to facilitate an agreed exit?

    Robert Smithson said he believed the real obligation was between £5 billion and £10 billion I think.

    The €39bn includes budget contributions to the end of the transition, which would be more than €10bn.
    Indeed. But I think the question is based on what our obligations would be if we left with no transition/No deal.
  • IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    I can't in all honesty see what the ERG are playing at in tactical terms. The shenanigans over the threshold confirm that they could at best only just muster the numbers to get close to the threshold, whatever it is. So it is also clear that there is a real risk to them of May' surviving a confidence vote at which point she becomes unchallengeable. She can then pack the Cabinet with remainers to ensure she gets her way. Look forward to her announcing a 2nd referendum when her deal inevitably gets voted down, safe in the knowledge that there is diddly squat that any of her MPs can do to stop the vote going before parliament and being passed with support from most of the PLP.

    Fabricant's position is the much more rational one for Brexiteers. He is waiting for her to first lose her parliamentary vote on the deal. She will then have to either commit to no deal (allied to possible renegotiation) or a 2nd referendum. Fabricant says that he will only send in a letter if she fails to do the former and I suspect that there are many other Brexiteer MPs who take the same position. Just look at the names of ardent critics of May who have so far failed to own up to writing a letter. So there will be certainly be a leadership contest by mid December and it would take place in the most unfavourable circumstances possible for May.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:


    You are not a Tory MP but an ex Kippee

    I am a voter who will vote Corbyn if May is still there next time. There will be a lot like me I suspect.
    It does seem to me that disappointed brexiteers are intent on making sure the economy is trashed just because they did not get their idealistic brexit.

    Some would say it is a view, many would say it is childish

    That is not to say that this TM loyalist does not agree that post Brexit in March TM should stand down in the interest of the party and let a unity candidate replace her to provide a new impetus to the actual trade deal process

    In these circumstances TM will have achieved brexit against all odds and it is upto others to make the success their seek, but she will be very well respected across the political spectrum
    Nice thoughts G, reality is she will stick it out till she is booted out, her ego is too big.
    I think we can all agree on that. If she can't be booted out having survived a vote on her leadership, she wont even stand down if she loses a parliamentary vote of no confidence, preferring to remain at the helm for a general election than stand down and allow a new Tory leader to form a new government (with the support of the DUP) in the 14 days period of grace.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    There are any number of people who could certainly have done better.

    Those who understood that Brexit had to be negotiated from a position of strength and so were willing to spend the money necessary to prepare for a No Deal rather than making it clear all along through their actions that No Deal was never an option.

    Those who realised that Brexit had to represent the whole country not just those who voted Leave and so were willing to stand up to the anti-Immigration lobby and negotiate a Brexit based on an EFTA type arrangement that reflected the wishes of the whole population not just a sub-set of Leave voters.

    Those who actually believed in Brexit rather than being forced reluctantly to negotiate something they had not supported, just so they could stay in power.

    Those who didn't use successive Brexit secretaries as a smoke screen for their own failings.

    Those who didn't make fundamental mistakes by agreeing to things such as the Irish backstop that were entirely unnecessary.

    The uncertainty about what Brexit actually meant, meant that May had the scope to craft a version that she could claim represented the best of what people wanted. Instead she used it as an excuse to craft the worst.

    "Those who understood that Brexit had to be negotiated from a position of strength"

    You mean people who are deluded? We are not in a position of strength; quite the opposite.

    "Those who realised that Brexit had to represent the whole country"

    The whole country is split, and large portions - including many of your erstwhile friends - are unwilling to compromise. You can't represent the whole country when large portions of it are deluded about what is possible.

    "Those who didn't use successive Brexit secretaries as a smoke screen for their own failings."

    Those Brexit secretaries - leavers one and all - failed, partly due to the contradictions in what they wanted and partly due to the fact they were, and are, not very good.

    "Those who didn't make fundamental mistakes by agreeing to things such as the Irish backstop that were entirely unnecessary. "

    Can you point to me anywhere pre-referendum where you said Brexit might be a problem for NI ?

    ---

    It is easy for leavers to lash out and blame May. They should instead examine their own mistakes. This would be particularly useful as many are still making those mistakes.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,382

    The Other has to be Green or Not Vote. Can't see it being more than a tiny few who are moving to UKIP.
    Pirates....
    LOL at the fact it wasn't me that claimed that :)
This discussion has been closed.