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System · November 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the “deal” has impacted on the main UK political betting markets

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.

Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

Richard_Nabavi · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.

williamglenn · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

Ask Tspiras how that would go.

RobD · November 2018

Fourth.... or is it 48th?

Sean_F · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

What if it's Peter Bone, and he threatens the EU with nuclear weapons?

Luckyguy1983 · November 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.

Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

williamglenn · November 2018

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up

tpfkar · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

I reckon they'd tell him to count to 48 to calm down...

Luckyguy1983 · November 2018

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.

Yawn.

RoyalBlue · November 2018

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.

So we’d get to reintegrate Newfoundland (vide Crimea) into the Empire?

Sounds like a winner to me.

RobD · November 2018

I

RoyalBlue said:

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.
So we’d get to reintegrate Newfoundland (vide Crimea) into the Empire?

Sounds like a winner to me.

Boris can be the first Governor. It’s not Southern Thule, but it’ll do.

Scott_P · November 2018

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1064929637657182209

Pulpstar · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up

Mogg will reply..

"Let the wealthy and great
Roll in splendour and state.
I envy them not, I declare it,
For I eat my own lamb,
My own chickens and ham;
I shear my own fleece and I wear it.
I have lawns; I have bowers.
I have fruits; I have flowers,
The lark is my morning alarmer.
So jolly boys now,
Here's God speed the plough.
Long life and success to the farmer."

Scott_P · November 2018

https://twitter.com/thomasmessenger/status/1064830099084779520

RobD · November 2018

Scott_P said:
twitter.com/thomasmessenger/status/1064830099084779520

Far too vibrant.

Scott_P · November 2018

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1064933177490358277

rottenborough · November 2018

Is OGH planning a holiday in May or early June?

Could be a busy time on PB.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular

HYUFD · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms

David_Evershed · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular

I thought Osborne wanted May cut up and put in a freezer?

CarlottaVance · November 2018

https://twitter.com/stuartmillar159/status/1064935314605727745?s=20

CarlottaVance · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20

Dadge · November 2018

May is much better at dealing with icebergs than the Titanic was. Who's to say now that she won't still be there in 2022?

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Dadge said:
May is much better at dealing with icebergs than the Titanic was. Who's to say now that she won't still be there in 2022?

If she pulls this off she is entitled to stay as long as she wants

rottenborough · November 2018

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1064933681385693184

OllyT · November 2018

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

Doubt that's what the working class leavers had in mind when they voted for Brexit, still, I have always suspected they were nothing more than cannon fodder in the plans of the right-wing Tories.

williamglenn · November 2018

Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

CarlottaVance · November 2018

Calling Roger:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1064936108327428096?s=20

(As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

David_Evershed · November 2018

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

How does the amendment for second referendum pass?

williamglenn · November 2018

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?

With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms

Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.

rottenborough · November 2018

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.

Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.

Xenon · November 2018

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20

Osborne is backing May now?

rottenborough · November 2018

Oh.

https://twitter.com/johnjohnstonmi/status/1064936841269440512

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.

I think there is only one person talking nonsense here

Recidivist · November 2018

CarlottaVance said:
Calling Roger:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1064936108327428096?s=20

(As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

That doesn't mean you should trust what they say.

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

IanB2 · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up

He is barking and does need to grow up.

Nigelb · November 2018

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?

Just opposing the imbecile.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.

And I suspect that is nearly half the party

Xenon · November 2018

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.

It's obvious that is what they are going to do, with no deal not being an option.

rcs1000 · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

They'd say "OK then".

The Irish would be hurt the most, but we'd also be hammered.

You see, we're not just dropping out of relationships with the EU, we'd be dropping out of relationships with the rest of the world. And, as we've seen with Open Skies / aviation negotiations with the US, the rest of the world is seeing this as an opportunity to get one up on us.

rottenborough · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
And I suspect that is nearly half the party

As I say, better keep May or June free in our diaries...

Pulpstar · November 2018

TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

Xenon · November 2018

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?

Looks like it

TheScreamingEagles · November 2018

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1064929250099322880
https://twitter.com/NSoames/status/1064939513141702656

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say "OK then".

The Irish would be hurt the most, but we'd also be hammered.

You see, we're not just dropping out of relationships with the EU, we'd be dropping out of relationships with the rest of the world. And, as we've seen with Open Skies / aviation negotiations with the US, the rest of the world is seeing this as an opportunity to get one up on us.

But as was discussed a few posts back in the chain it only takes convincing Varadkar and this is over. The Irish threatening a hard border to prevent a hard border is an obvious bluff, they don't want a hard border so are threatening something they are trying to prevent. The problem is we're too weak to call their bluff.

If the PM is serious about calling it, whether it is smart too or not, then that changes the Game Theory for the Irish. Mogg is prepared to accept a bonkers Brexit, Varadkar is not prepared to have a hard border, so Varadkar would need to be the one who blinks then.

TheScreamingEagles · November 2018

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
And I suspect that is nearly half the party
As I say, better keep May or June free in our diaries...

I'm best man on the 15th of June next year.

Nigelb · November 2018

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

You’re suggesting we move five million people to the Isle of Wight and abandon the rest of the UK ?
Interesting plan.

I’ll put you down as the first volunteer.

David_Evershed · November 2018

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.

But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?

rcs1000 · November 2018

Pulpstar said:
TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

I shorted it the day before yesterday.

This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/

williamglenn · November 2018

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?

The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?

In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:
TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.
I shorted it the day before yesterday.

This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/

Is it? Even the author says there are solutions (even if inconvenient ones) and that Tesla are normally good at addressing this sort of issue.

HYUFD · November 2018

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

In theory yes, in reality we will be more likely to become Cuba or Venezuala on their border under PM Corbyn

David_Evershed · November 2018

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.

But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.

Nigelb · November 2018

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.

Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

williamglenn · November 2018

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.

If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly

With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.

HYUFD · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064915386569760768?s=20
The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.

So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Sky reporting the 'Political Declaration' expanded now to 15 pages and is not going to be published tomorrow due to ongoing negotiations

williamglenn · November 2018

"Spain would not oppose independent Scotland rejoining EU - foreign minister"

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland/spain-would-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-minister-idUKKCN1NP25P

TheScreamingEagles · November 2018

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

HYUFD said:
So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote

We're not dictating terms, we're declining one term. The rest of the terms are up for negotiations but had Scotland voted for independence there are terms they could quite rightly have refused to agree if the UK had demanded it. This is one such term.

Philip_Thompson · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky reporting the 'Political Declaration' expanded now to 15 pages and is not going to be published tomorrow due to ongoing negotiations

More written in a few days than the past 18 months.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.

She will win a vnoc. There is growing anger in the party over the Dads Army extreme fringe and no way will a vnoc succeed

HYUFD · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.

Most Tory MPs back this Deal and May probably secretly backs EUref2 over No Deal as do a small majority of Tory MPs

JosiasJessop · November 2018

Pulpstar said:
TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

AIUI most of the long-term shorts would already have made their money back, thanks to Musk's insanity a few months ago.

Personally, I foresee a similar rollercoaster ride over the next few years - and uch of it down to Musk himself.

GIN1138 · November 2018

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1064933681385693184

No!!!!!! Really????? As though she'd do that!

rcs1000 · November 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:
TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.
I shorted it the day before yesterday.

This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/
Is it? Even the author says there are solutions (even if inconvenient ones) and that Tesla are normally good at addressing this sort of issue.

Electrek are massive Tesla bulls normally. When they have a negative story, it means something. Given the valuation, even a modest slowdown in deliveries to more Northerly places could be a big negative for the stock.

(This is really a trading call - I'm not making a long term bet here.)

SquareRoot · November 2018

THat poll has come nicely for TMay.. enough to frighten off a few waverers..

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.

Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time

Jonathan · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time

Eh? So if parliament legislates for a referendum, you're saying the executive will overrule it? Interesting.

Of course we can have a referendum,

DecrepitJohnL · November 2018

Rant deleted.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/

Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP

Nigelb · November 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/

Well it is, literally, a great splodge of ink, and Xenon is seeing what he wishes to see, so I prefer my comparison.

rcs1000 · November 2018

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.

Household final expenditure as a percent of GDP

Singapore: 36%
UK: 66%

Household savings rate (OECD)

Singapore: 19%
UK: -1.6%

tlg86 · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP

Doubt they'd want the deserter back again.

Stereotomy · November 2018

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
Eh? So if parliament legislates for a referendum, you're saying the executive will overrule it? Interesting.

Of course we can have a referendum,

I think he was agreeing with williamglenn

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.
Most Tory MPs back this Deal and May probably secretly backs EUref2 over No Deal as do a small majority of Tory MPs

I think that is now a 'growing' majority of conservative mps

matt · November 2018

CarlottaVance said:
Calling Roger:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1064936108327428096?s=20

(As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

SquareRoot said:
THat poll has come nicely for TMay.. enough to frighten off a few waverers..

Which poll

rcs1000 · November 2018

HYUFD said:
So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote

The important question that's never talked about is fungibility. Is it easier for the EU to find alternative export markets, or for the UK?

I suspect the answer is that - excepting Ireland - the answer is that it's easier for the EU.

rcs1000 · November 2018

matt said:

CarlottaVance said:
Calling Roger:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1064936108327428096?s=20

(As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)
Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.

Bodycams in the US are leading a great many people to have lower trust for the police.

David_Evershed · November 2018

matt said:

CarlottaVance said:
Calling Roger:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1064936108327428096?s=20

(As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)
Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.

And do we trust pollsters?

Where do they come on the trust chart prepared by pollsters.?

Alanbrooke · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP

he's poison

glw · November 2018

A statement from the President of the United States,

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/

You really should read it.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Alanbrooke said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
he's poison

Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now

Richard_Tyndall · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time

So the question would then be do Labour want a General Election more than second referendum? Because the obvious thing for the Eurosceptics to do would be to support a VONC in Parliament and bring about a GE at which point the meaningful vote bill falls.

Jonathan · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
he's poison
Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now

Why? They created this mess.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

glw said:
A statement from the President of the United States,

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/

You really should read it.

Fairly predictable

Alanbrooke · November 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

Nigelb said:

Xenon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

George Osborne going for the jugular
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1064872231770251266?s=20
Osborne is backing May now?
Just opposing the imbecile.

Oh so he's not backing her.
Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
he's poison
Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now

they were shit at the time and would be worse now, all PR puff and bollocks

if you want to know why we are were we are look the posh boys and how they misread the country

Richard_Tyndall · November 2018

Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

Alanbrooke · November 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:
Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

Mr Tyndall

havent seen you for a while, nice to see youre back

dixiedean · November 2018

DecrepitJohnL said:
Rant deleted.

Well that won't catch on

Richard_Tyndall · November 2018

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.
Mr Tyndall

havent seen you for a while, nice to see youre back

Cheers sir.

tlg86 · November 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:
Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

They're minted, aren't they? I think they own the land on which the Port of Felixstowe is built.

Oh, and best of luck to her.

Big_G_NorthWales · November 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

williamglenn said:
Possible sequence of events:

- DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
- Confidence vote in government tabled
- DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
- Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
- Amendment for second referendum passes
- Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
So the question would then be do Labour want a General Election more than second referendum? Because the obvious thing for the Eurosceptics to do would be to support a VONC in Parliament and bring about a GE at which point the meaningful vote bill falls.

And each deselected and the GE fought with new candidates and of course many of them will be out of Parliament and labour will hold a referendum and we will stay no matter

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