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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’s to make it

Moggsy appears to be ruling himself out of the leadership and is set to back fellow Etonian BoJohttps://t.co/Snu75YfUiB

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    First!
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Boris has shown nothing in the last year to suggest he's up to the job.

    Neither has May mind you.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Pope? How many divisions has he got?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Laying JRM has been as profitable as Boris.

    If the ERG cannot organise 48 MPs to trigger a VONC, they’ll struggle to get the 80-108 MPs required to get Boris on the final two.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?

    Not much, he should get a boost if he brings back the lady from Iran.
  • Options
    Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Let's sum up May's achievements in the last week:

    Sold out the UK fishing industry, making any trade deal contingent on buying off of EU fishing fleets with access to British waters.

    Agreed that the CJEU will remain the sole arbiter for EU law in the UK (that we will be indefinitely bound by, but have no say in drafting).

    Zero changes to the godforsaken backstop, in direct contravention to the assurances she made her cabinet.

    Whew boi, that's quite the litany of incompetence and dishonesty even for May.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    JRM's support was probably more valuable a week or two ago before his own 'stock' value slumped....
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    grabcocque said:

    Let's sum up May's achievements in the last week:

    Sold out the UK fishing industry, making any trade deal contingent on buying off of EU fishing fleets with access to British waters.

    Agreed that the CJEU will remain the sole arbiter for EU law in the UK (that we will be indefinitely bound by, but have no say in drafting).

    Zero changes to the godforsaken backstop, in direct contravention to the assurances she made her cabinet.

    Whew boi, that's quite the litany of incompetence and dishonesty even for May.

    That is diametrically opposite to the BBC news just now
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    They missed out "implementation of" ..
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Given the failed coup, Mogg's backing may not be worth a lot.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?

    Not much, he should get a boost if he brings back the lady from Iran.
    On other foreign matters, besides the situation there being utterly disgusting, I'm not sure that long term we've acted in our best long term interests wrt Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    Actually if that happened it would be a satisfactory result
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Let's sum up May's achievements in the last week:

    Sold out the UK fishing industry, making any trade deal contingent on buying off of EU fishing fleets with access to British waters.

    Agreed that the CJEU will remain the sole arbiter for EU law in the UK (that we will be indefinitely bound by, but have no say in drafting).

    Zero changes to the godforsaken backstop, in direct contravention to the assurances she made her cabinet.

    Whew boi, that's quite the litany of incompetence and dishonesty even for May.

    That is diametrically opposite to the BBC news just now
    The BBC shamelessly going into bat for May?

    The very idea is ludicrous.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,283
    Mogg should have stuck to playing the joke Englishman. His attempts at serious politics in recent weeks have shown him to be both unpleasant and inept.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    grabcocque said:

    Let's sum up May's achievements in the last week:

    Sold out the UK fishing industry, making any trade deal contingent on buying off of EU fishing fleets with access to British waters.

    Agreed that the CJEU will remain the sole arbiter for EU law in the UK (that we will be indefinitely bound by, but have no say in drafting).

    Zero changes to the godforsaken backstop, in direct contravention to the assurances she made her cabinet.

    Whew boi, that's quite the litany of incompetence and dishonesty even for May.

    Agreed to pay out £39Bn for wothless piece of paper.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
    Cameron's legacy.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,701
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    If MPs see that proportional representation would be in their interest too, then we could see some movement.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
    Suppose we end up with no deal and - somehow - it isn't a disaster and doesn't trigger a recession. There isn't panic leading to a belated capitulation to Brussels.

    In that unlikely scenario the pro-EU and pro-deal sections of the Parliamentary party would be routed and though some diehards might cling to their view the issue would be settled. The converse isn't the case, because only one side of this argument has any attachment to reality.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Sean_Fear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
    Well the loons are in the ascendancy at the moment.

    Brexit has emboldened them.

    If you call yourself a One Nation Tory and voted for Brexit then you’ve really soiled the bed.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Mogg should have stuck to playing the joke Englishman. His attempts at serious politics in recent weeks have shown him to be both unpleasant and inept.

    Agreed
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May's negotiations always remind me of those Gordon Brown budgets that fell apart seconds after publication as people started to discover the landmines left littered throughout.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    The situation for the Tories is much more serious though because 70% of Con members and voters are leavers.

    If they all "fuck off" the Tories are basically dead!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?

    His stock has been damaged by hating May's deal - but not doing anything about it.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    grabcocque said:

    May's negotiations always remind me of those Gordon Brown budgets that fell apart seconds after publication as people started to discover the landmines left littered throughout.

    Mmmmm, bit like osbornes omnishambles budget in 2012.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    Not at all. Laws will be made by FPTP's victors. They won't pass laws helping the people that FPTP helped them to defeat, unless there is a sudden outbreak of altruism and a death of partisanship among our politicians.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
    Well the loons are in the ascendancy at the moment.

    Brexit has emboldened them.

    If you call yourself a One Nation Tory and voted for Brexit then you’ve really soiled the bed.
    I'm trying to atone...
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2018
    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    GIN1138 said:

    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    The situation for the Tories is much more serious though because 70% of Con members and voters are leavers.

    If they all "fuck off" the Tories are basically dead!
    You been saying that for a while now Gin
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    May maintains her centrist posture, giving everybody something but nobody everything.

    She clearly feels the centre ground is there.

    We shall see.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Cameron must be thrilled to have stopped Tories from banging on about Europe.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's.

    MEOW!!!!! :D
  • Options
    Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    anothernick said:

    grabcocque said:

    May's negotiations always remind me of those Gordon Brown budgets that fell apart seconds after publication as people started to discover the landmines left littered throughout.

    Mmmmm, bit like osbornes omnishambles budget in 2012.
    May's standing has risen with the public over the past week, though.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    What's the position of our fisheries in the backstop ?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MarqueeMark said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?

    His stock has been damaged by hating May's deal - but not doing anything about it.
    Hunt has UAE and Iran prisoners now, and his public "warnings" to Iran a few days ago have not helped (yet!).
  • Options
    Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
    Well the loons are in the ascendancy at the moment.

    Brexit has emboldened them.

    If you call yourself a One Nation Tory and voted for Brexit then you’ve really soiled the bed.
    I think there are lot of people who look at Labour 1978-1985 and say "I want some of that".
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,127
    GIN1138 said:

    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    So we've got Labour Blairites being told to "fuck off and join the Tories", and Tory Leavers being told to "fuck off and join UKIP". FPTP may not survive the next 5 years if the pressure to fragment continues.
    The situation for the Tories is much more serious though because 70% of Con members and voters are leavers.

    If they all "fuck off" the Tories are basically dead!
    May's "my deal or no Brexit" looks like a political miscalculation, trying to triangulate towards remainers but ditching her own party's core support.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's?

    In a funny way, you know where you are with a manipulative, amoral, sociopathic snake like Boris.

    Yes, you know he'll betray you. But you also know he'll betray you in a way which is predictable and can be planned for in advance.

    Compare that to someone like Gove, who you know will betray you, but you won't know when, and won't see it coming.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,906
    grabcocque said:

    Let's sum up May's achievements in the last week:

    Sold out the UK fishing industry, making any trade deal contingent on buying off of EU fishing fleets with access to British waters.

    Agreed that the CJEU will remain the sole arbiter for EU law in the UK (that we will be indefinitely bound by, but have no say in drafting).

    Zero changes to the godforsaken backstop, in direct contravention to the assurances she made her cabinet.

    Whew boi, that's quite the litany of incompetence and dishonesty even for May.

    IIRC there were several Tory gains in NE Scotland which were said to be as a direct consequence of promises about fishing. Could become nasty if she has 'sold out' on fishing!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,002
    Matt Hancock says we could have a second referendum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/matt-hancock-says-second-brexit-referendum-is-possible
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
    Well the loons are in the ascendancy at the moment.

    Brexit has emboldened them.

    If you call yourself a One Nation Tory and voted for Brexit then you’ve really soiled the bed.
    I'm trying to atone...
    I remember reading a Cornerstone pamphlet back in 2006/7 and Brexit was their priority but the rest of their manifesto read like one of those scary GOP guns and bible plans.

    Things like reducing condom supply and teaching abstinence only was a real highlight.

    Apparently that alone will reduce unwanted/teenage pregnancies.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    https://twitter.com/ExcelPope/status/1065564066406719488
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    What's the position of our fisheries in the backstop ?

    Outside the Customs Union but outside the CFP.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    grabcocque said:

    Cameron must be thrilled to have stopped Tories from banging on about Europe.

    I wonder whether self-awareness about that is part of his reputed writer's block? It's a hard thing to put a good gloss on (though Richard Nabavi makes a fine effort on Cameron's behalf).
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    The Tory Party has not been united in my adult lifetime.. I think we should take it as a given that it will always be disunited.
    Well the loons are in the ascendancy at the moment.

    Brexit has emboldened them.

    If you call yourself a One Nation Tory and voted for Brexit then you’ve really soiled the bed.
    I'm trying to atone...
    I remember reading a Cornerstone pamphlet back in 2006/7 and Brexit was their priority but the rest of their manifesto read like one of those scary GOP guns and bible plans.

    Things like reducing condom supply and teaching abstinence only was a real highlight.

    Apparently that alone will reduce unwanted/teenage pregnancies.
    Little did they know that it would be social media that would reduce teenage pregnancies, and excessive alcohol, drug use etc etc
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,283
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's.

    I suspect Mogg realizes that the members now view him as a bit of an arse, and sucking up to Boris is a clumsy attempt to get back in their good books. He just wants to be loved.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    edited November 2018
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What's the position of our fisheries in the backstop ?

    Outside the Customs Union but outside the CFP.
    Respectfully I think you've made a typo ?

    Inside the Customs Union but outside the CFP ?

    Or is it really a 'true Norway' ?
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Sean_Fear said:

    anothernick said:

    grabcocque said:

    May's negotiations always remind me of those Gordon Brown budgets that fell apart seconds after publication as people started to discover the landmines left littered throughout.

    Mmmmm, bit like osbornes omnishambles budget in 2012.
    May's standing has risen with the public over the past week, though.

    The omnishambles gutted the coalition until about six months before the GE of 2015.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What's the position of our fisheries in the backstop ?

    Outside the Customs Union but outside the CFP.
    Respectfully I think you've made a typo ?

    Inside the Customs Union but outside the CFP ?
    Genuinely, no.

    Fish products are the only things outside the Customs Union (even though, as we know, the UK is in).

    But the UK takes back control of its waters (and probably agrees a deal to smooth those two things out).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What's the position of our fisheries in the backstop ?

    Outside the Customs Union but outside the CFP.
    Respectfully I think you've made a typo ?

    Inside the Customs Union but outside the CFP ?
    Genuinely, no.

    Fish products are the only things outside the Customs Union (even though, as we know, the UK is in).

    But the UK takes back control of its waters (and probably agrees a deal to smooth those two things out).
    OK That looks a good position for us, I think !
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    Do you think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    FWIW, I have never, for one moment, considered Rees-Mogg as a potential future leader of the Conservative Party.

    Plus he's not shown any inclination to want the job. (Even less so now, I'd imagine.)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    williamglenn said:

    Matt Hancock says we could have a second referendum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/matt-hancock-says-second-brexit-referendum-is-possible

    Hopefully he'll be leading the charge for Remain.

    I saw him on Marr a couple of weeks back and had to turn him off... Complete and total waste of space waffling on about absolutely nothing...
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    Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    I don't think in the end, anything close to 80 Conservatives will vote against.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Matt Hancock says we could have a second referendum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/matt-hancock-says-second-brexit-referendum-is-possible

    Hopefully he'll be leading the charge for Remain.

    I saw him on Marr a couple of weeks back and had to turn him off... Complete and total waste of space waffling on about absolutely nothing...
    Asked to rule out the possibility of a second referendum, he said: “I’m certainly ruling out me supporting it.”
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Letter from Scots Tories to May on 14th Nov (Signed by all the Scottish Tories) says "access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership”.

    Have a guess what May has just done...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    currystar said:

    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    Do you think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do Labour think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    The question now relates to the cabinet. Does it approve the deal and no one resigns
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MarqueeMark said:

    currystar said:

    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    Do you think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do Labour think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    You know, I have no idea. Labour's constructive ambiguity on Brexit is now so complete and all encompassing, that I doubt even they know if they believe it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Fear, what about abstentions?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MarqueeMark said:

    currystar said:

    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    Do you think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do Labour think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do you think the public, the Tories, the EU, or Labour actually know what Labour's deal actually is.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    grabcocque said:

    Letter from Scots Tories to May on 14th Nov (Signed by all the Scottish Tories) says "access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership”.

    Have a guess what May has just done...

    I assume you have a detailed knowledge of the fishing industry including access and quotas
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I don't see how Mundell can stay. May has lied to his face, and crossed the red line she promised to respect to keep him in the cabinet.

    For that matter, May also has put Ruth in a tricky spot too. A lot of Scottish Tory voters did so because they believed Ruth's assurances about fishing.

    May has just made Ruth a liar to her supporters.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited November 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Letter from Scots Tories to May on 14th Nov (Signed by all the Scottish Tories) says "access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership”.

    Have a guess what May has just done...

    It's not in the FP, it's a "new fisheries agreement" "in the context of" the FP.

    It's being negotiated earlier and will come into place sooner than the FP. Of course such things are not in isolation, though.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The question now relates to the cabinet. Does it approve the deal and no one resigns

    It wouldn't matter if they did. May would keep buggering on.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,310
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    I remember when Leavers said only a Leave vote would unite the Tory party.

    Seems like a sick joke now.
    They missed out "implementation of" ..
    Bit like the whole leave prospectus.

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    grabcocque said:

    Cameron must be thrilled to have stopped Tories from banging on about Europe.

    A nation at ease with itself.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Letter from Scots Tories to May on 14th Nov (Signed by all the Scottish Tories) says "access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership”.

    Have a guess what May has just done...

    I assume you have a detailed knowledge of the fishing industry including access and quotas
    No, but I do have the the ability to read English words and sentences, and to obtain semantic meaning from. Such as when the PD makes the FEP deal contingent on selling out fishing, when she assured Mundell, Ruth and the entire Scottish Tory party that she wasn't going to do that.

    Question is, did May know she was going to betray Scottish Tories? This might be the important question for Mundell: she lied to your face, you need to decided whether it's malice or incompetence.
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    Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fear, what about abstentions?

    I think that most of them will vent, before deciding it's better than the possible alternatives.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Whilst we should've had the promised referendum on Lisbon, it's worth noting that a parallel world in which the 2016 referendum never occurred and further integration took place would've seen the same division, only it would've reached boiling point with worse consequences than the current prolonged polarisation.

    The problem wasn't having the referendum (indeed, Clegg in 2007 or so whipped his party to abstain on a Lisbon referendum vote, advocating a 'real' In/Out referendum), it was having it so late.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Anorak said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    currystar said:

    grabcocque said:

    The nightmare scenario for May is that the ~80 Tories currently against the deal, realising that no deal is not an option, but realizing that almost every other outcome within reach is superior to May's aborted fetus of a deal, and swing behind Labour's deal or (even scarier) a people's vote.

    Either would be a humiliation for May and a total repudiation of the strategy (if you can call it that) for her entire premiership.

    Do you think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do Labour think the EU would agree to Labours "deal" ?
    Do you think the public, the Tories, the EU, or Labour actually know what Labour's deal actually is.
    There is no Labour "deal". But May is so weak she can't effectively call them out on it.

    Anyway, the Cabinet piss-and-wind 5 have clearly go nowhere with their version of the "deal". Resignation time? Or keep the Ministerial car? Tough decisions....


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    Rob1909Rob1909 Posts: 18
    I have been a lifelong Tory voter but if they don't deliver a Brexit and we end up with another referendum I will never vote for them again. Those calling for another referendum need to realise how badly that would play with leave voters from both parties.
    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_Fear said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fear, what about abstentions?

    I think that most of them will vent, before deciding it's better than the possible alternatives.
    Why do you think that?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    Any reasonable NE Tory fisherman type should be in favour of the deal ;)

    Staying in the EU will cede control of our waters.
    This deal might or might not cede control of our waters ^_~
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,002
    Rob1909 said:

    I have been a lifelong Tory voter but if they don't deliver a Brexit and we end up with another referendum I will never vote for them again. Those calling for another referendum need to realise how badly that would play with leave voters from both parties.

    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
    You think they should deliver Brexit even if there is a big majority against it?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Whether it's binding or not, May has agreed to something last week she was assuring her Cabinet she absolutely wasn't going to do. And not done something that last week she assured her cabinet she was going to do.

    Incompetence or malice? Mixture of both, maybe?

    That's a calculation for the Cabinet.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Everyone wants to be outraged SO, it's the new default state of being.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Well said
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Exactly. A blank canvas upon which the conspiricist, the nihilist, and the downright deranged can gleefully project themselves.

    *waves at grabcocque*
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Whether it's binding or not, May has agreed to something last week she was assuring her Cabinet she absolutely wasn't going to do. And not done something that last week she assured her cabinet she was going to do.

    Incompetence or malice? Mixture of both, maybe?

    That's a calculation for the Cabinet.
    Nicola Sturgeon has criticised the outline for failing to get annual reviews on fisheries and even she does not think the fisheries agreement is part of the FP.
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    Rob1909Rob1909 Posts: 18
    There has always been a majority against it in parliament. Thats why the referendum result hasn't been enacted.
    williamglenn said:

    Rob1909 said:

    I have been a lifelong Tory voter but if they don't deliver a Brexit and we end up with another referendum I will never vote for them again. Those calling for another referendum need to realise how badly that would play with leave voters from both parties.

    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
    You think they should deliver Brexit even if there is a big majority against it?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Whether it's binding or not, May has agreed to something last week she was assuring her Cabinet she absolutely wasn't going to do. And not done something that last week she assured her cabinet she was going to do.

    Incompetence or malice? Mixture of both, maybe?

    That's a calculation for the Cabinet.

    She has not definitively agreed to anything. She has signed off on the draft of a set of aspirations that can be interpreted in multiple ways. I happen to think the document indicates BINO is a highly likely outcome, but equally it could be read as the launch pad for a Canada style outcome.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited November 2018
    I think contract law offers the way out for Tory Leave MPs. Keep using the Raab line - banging on about how May has been bullied by the EU. Approve May's deal, to get Brexit over the Article 50 line - then use duress as the argument for why we can walk away from any "deal".

    "Duress is a means by which a person or party can be released from a contract, where that person or party has been forced or coerced into the contract. If this coercion can be shown to be true then the contract entered into cannot not be considered a valid agreement.

    Traditionally Duress only related to Duress to the person, which in effect required actual violence or threatened violence against the person or party to the contract. The application of Duress has since expanded and it is now recognised that duress may be economic in nature and deal with threats of damage to property / goods and also threats or demands for money.

    https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/contract-law/duress-makes-a-contract-voidable-contract-law-essay.php

    (I might not be entirely serious, but hey.....)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Whether it's binding or not, May has agreed to something last week she was assuring her Cabinet she absolutely wasn't going to do. And not done something that last week she assured her cabinet she was going to do.

    Incompetence or malice? Mixture of both, maybe?

    That's a calculation for the Cabinet.
    Nicola Sturgeon has criticised the outline for failing to get annual reviews on fisheries and even she does not think the fisheries agreement is part of the FP.
    Her criticism is hilarious given that her preferred option is to lock in the betrayal of the fishing industry.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking of other contenders, has Hunt's stock been damaged by the UAE mess ?

    Given his fairly clear criticism, I'd say most would give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Had it been Saudi and he'd done a Trumpish "mustn't intervene in other people's judicial systems" whitewash, he might have been.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,242
    Sky like the BBC seem quite favourable with it
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,879
    Slackbladder said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Everyone wants to be outraged SO, it's the new default state of being.
    How dare you fucking well say that? It's a bloody travesty, that's what it is. The fact I'm constantly outraged - by the news, that story my mate told me down t'pub, the sun rising this morning - how DARE it, that shitting hot and too distant bloody sphere - does not mean that my default state is being outraged. No sirree.

    How dare you!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    williamglenn said:

    Rob1909 said:

    I have been a lifelong Tory voter but if they don't deliver a Brexit and we end up with another referendum I will never vote for them again. Those calling for another referendum need to realise how badly that would play with leave voters from both parties.

    GIN1138 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I can't see a way forward but a split in the Tories going foward. Those looking to the future, and the ones stuck in the past.

    It is impossible to see how the Tories can ever be reconciled.
    You think they should deliver Brexit even if there is a big majority against it?
    There was a majority for it in 2016.

    86% of votes at the 2017 General Election were for parties pledging to implement it. No ifs, no buts, no Second Vote.

    But hey, you know better than the voters.....
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's.

    There’s a simple explanation. He has brains and principles, but no judgement whatsoever.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    JosiasJessop said:

    Slackbladder said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The future relationship document is 26 pages of non-binding waffle with acres of wriggle room built in. It sells no-one out because it contains no firm commitments. To get outraged by it is to reveal yourself to be someone looking for reasons to be outraged.

    Everyone wants to be outraged SO, it's the new default state of being.
    How dare you fucking well say that? It's a bloody travesty, that's what it is. The fact I'm constantly outraged - by the news, that story my mate told me down t'pub, the sun rising this morning - how DARE it, that shitting hot and too distant bloody sphere - does not mean that my default state is being outraged. No sirree.

    How dare you!
    Delete this post.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    RoyalBlue said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do find it hilarious that an ultra-purist like the Moggster should think it's a good idea to trust and give his support to Boris, the most slippery, changeable, untrustworthy and inconsistent man in modern politics, who has elevated betraying his friends (not to mention his wives) into an artform, and whose political positioning inasmuch as he has any is nothing like the ERG's.

    There’s a simple explanation. He has brains and principles, but no judgement whatsoever.
    Or, he has been promised CoE by Johnson.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    :)
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Back here on planet Earth (rather than Planet Wank Theresa Into A Cup)

    https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1065576576639750144
    Looks like Theresa May betraying the UK fishing industry and lying to the faces of Scots Tories might, in fact, be a story with legs.
This discussion has been closed.