I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.
There may well be nobody arguing for May's deal if it goes to a second referendum.
Exactly. Cabinet members ostensibly in favour have other plan b's in mind, no k e but Rory Stewart will be speaking for it.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.
But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either
Agreed - which is why a general election rather than a second referendum is now required. There is no democratic mandate without one.
Even if she goes to Bruxelles and gets them to change the font of the backstop paragraph to 11 point Garamond will the Ergonauts really eat shit and vote for it? Everything she does is pointless and confusing.
Agreed. And no they won't. She has to tell the ERG where to go and she has to come to terms with Corbyn. If she can't do that, she must go and go soon.
We regret to inform you that your scheduled Brexit to Eternal Vassalage has been delayed indefinitely. This is due to taking back the wrong sort of control.
I'm listening to Richard Burgon on the World at One. He is saying the Conservatives and the Government have lost all authority and don't know where they're going.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?
I would be tempted to start by saying "Mr Speaker, Something has changed."
Except she's already said when announcing her statement that nothing has changed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288 "As President Juncker said, this deal is the best and only deal possible. We will not renegotiate - our position has therefore not changed and as far as we are concerned the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on 29 March, 2019."...
Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.
48 letters must be in tonight - surely.
No May has got a Deal after tremendous work, it is an utter failure by our pathetic Parliament though who cannot even decide whether it wants to tie its own shoelaces in regards to the way forward on Brexit
TMay is absolutely useless. I have great sympathy for her doing a horrible job, but she is, nonetheless, an absolutely useless dork as a prime minister.
I tried to like her Deal, the same way I tried to like Cameron's Deal, but it was the same with both: the closer you looked the worse it got. Indeed TMay's Deal was substantially inferior to Dave's pathetic renegotiation: with her Deal there was a very serious chance we would be locked into the EU as a vassal state in perpetuity, with all the duties and none of the rights, and Northern Ireland would be slowly ripped out of the Union.
Perhaps no superior deal was available under the horror that is Article 50. Perhaps no other Prime Minister could have done better, and TMay's only failing is her clumsy timing and graceless opinionating.
Either way, we are scuppered. The only way out is a new plebiscite. At least it is quasi democratic.
May's Deal at least ends free movement unlike Cameron's.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.
But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either
Agreed - which is why a general election rather than a second referendum is now required. There is no democratic mandate without one.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.
There may well be nobody arguing for May's deal if it goes to a second referendum.
Wrong May's Deal trounced No Deal 65 35 with Yougov and tied Remain 50 50
As If Parliament reverses Brexit and cancels Article 50 without a referendum there could be a revolution in this country, or at least a landslide for UKIP or Farage's new party at the next general election SNP 2015 style. The voters have to decide if MPs want to stick their heads in the sand
Oh I'm not saying there won't be a referendum, our politicians want cover for reversing, that's bloody clear. I think that if there is a second referendum they will not honour the wrong result. Parliament will simply move on to the next approach for avoiding that outcome, be it delay or stall, another referendum, or a general election.
Parliament will have to accept the referendum result
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.
But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either
Agreed - which is why a general election rather than a second referendum is now required. There is no democratic mandate without one.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
Afraid of the electorate or just afraid of democracy ? There is far more legitimacy in holding a general election than a second referendum to pander to a bunch of remainers.
I think it is a racing certainty that Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal has absolutely nothing going for it. It has no certainty on trade, betrays fishing, betrays NI and there is no clarity on immigration - just the certainty we will pay out £ 39bn for nothing. MPs won’t sanction no deal which is the only form of Brexit deliverable in the time scale and will thereby rob 17.4 m voters of their democratic choice.
The result will be a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what Remainers deserve for the economic carnage it will create.
That will be May’s and the Tory remainers legacy - failure to deliver on Brexit and handing power to a bunch of hard left extremists. Great job !!!
No that will be the legacy of fanatics like you and the ERG, plus quite possibly an end to Brexit anyway which is exactly what you deserve for your refusal to compromise.
Even with Corbyn PM the Tories will recover eventually and probably sooner as long as he is in charge, lose this time though and Brexiteers will likely never get another chance again
The Tories rely on Leavers votes to get themselves elected. Reneging on Brexit will be the best way of ensuring they either don’t vote or vote for other parties. That will be entirely the fault of May and her merry band of Remoaners - like you.
Most Tories back the Deal or Remain with Yougov. The Tories won a majority in 2015 when UKIP was on 12% as they won the centre vote
I'm listening to Richard Burgon on the World at One. He is saying the Conservatives and the Government have lost all authority and don't know where they're going.
Basically every member of the house if thumbing through their copy of Erskine May reading the section on programme motions, business motions, wind-ups and guillotines and looking for loopholes and ambushes.
Mr Speaker keeping his cards close to his chest, but I'd expect him to be bombarded with points of order during Mrs Leadsom's statement.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.
There may well be nobody arguing for May's deal if it goes to a second referendum.
It may not be necessary. One option before May this afternoon is to repudiate her own deal, in the light of the feedback it's received.
May's Statement this afternoon:
"That Olly Robbins, eh? What a useless tosser.....now I'm off to Brussels to go and get us a REAL deal....."
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
And leave was killed on 10 December 2018 (if not before).
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.
But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either
Agreed - which is why a general election rather than a second referendum is now required. There is no democratic mandate without one.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
Afraid of the electorate or just afraid of democracy ? There is far more legitimacy in holding a general election than a second referendum to pander to a bunch of remainers.
No it is you refusing to allow the voters to decide on Brexit, Parliament clearly cannot decide anything general election or no general election
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.
But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either
Agreed - which is why a general election rather than a second referendum is now required. There is no democratic mandate without one.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
Surely the point of a GE is that you can’t say what it would produce a majority in the Commons for. It might (though probably won’t) support exactly that.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
The Queen?
Ha!
Or the 36% 'majority' who voted for something unspecific nearly 3 years ago?
I think it is a racing certainty that Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal has absolutely nothing going for it. It has no certainty on trade, betrays fishing, betrays NI and there is no clarity on immigration - just the certainty we will pay out £ 39bn for nothing. MPs won’t sanction no deal which is the only form of Brexit deliverable in the time scale and will thereby rob 17.4 m voters of their democratic choice.
The result will be a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what Remainers deserve for the economic carnage it will create.
That will be May’s and the Tory remainers legacy - failure to deliver on Brexit and handing power to a bunch of hard left extremists. Great job !!!
No that will be the legacy of fanatics like you and the ERG, plus quite possibly an end to Brexit anyway which is exactly what you deserve for your refusal to compromise.
Even with Corbyn PM the Tories will recover eventually and probably sooner as long as he is in charge, lose this time though and Brexiteers will likely never get another chance again
The Tories rely on Leavers votes to get themselves elected. Reneging on Brexit will be the best way of ensuring they either don’t vote or vote for other parties. That will be entirely the fault of May and her merry band of Remoaners - like you.
Most Tories back the Deal or Remain with Yougov. The Tories won a majority in 2015 when UKIP was on 12% as they won the centre vote
If you actually believe that (personally I think it’s fatuous) then there is no reason for you be scared a general election.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
A general election could solve that problem!
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
I wonder if the opposition can instigate the meaningful vote?
If they have the numbers, I think it makes good strategic sense for Corbyn to go in for the kill assuming he can do this. I cannot see why he could not do this as the Government does not after all have a parliamentary majority!
The AV vote was binding in law. The way to do it is for the legislation to provide for the change in question to come in, subject only to the referendum approving it.
That said, the number of referendums that have been held, with the government implementing every single outcome (bar the 1979 Scottish vote, though even that was in line with the rules set), is tending more and more to the convention that referendums are always binding in fact.
That may be the convention, but in practice as I understand it no referendum can be binding. There is nothing that stops Parliament for undoing the wrong result if they want to. It would be controversial and cause political uproar, but they can do it, they have the power to legislate as they see fit. We are watching Parliament working its way to nullifying the 2016 referendum right now.
Like I said, a referendum can be binding if parliament legislates that way. The 2011 AV vote was binding.
The convention question is a different matter. I think we are watching the final stages of the transfer of ultimate constitutional sovereignty from (the crown-in-)parliament to the people. As with previous transfers of power, the process is never entirely smooth.
Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.
48 letters must be in tonight - surely.
If we assume that she is heading back to Brussels to renegotiate the backstop, then she is only doing what the ERG told her to do. Why put in a letter now if you didn't do so when Mogg said to do so?
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
The Queen?
Ha!
Or the 36% 'majority' who voted for something unspecific nearly 3 years ago?
The opinion of those that can't be arsed to vote matters?
I think it is a racing certainty that Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal has absolutely nothing going for it. It has no certainty on trade, betrays fishing, betrays NI and there is no clarity on immigration - just the certainty we will pay out £ 39bn for nothing. MPs won’t sanction no deal which is the only form of Brexit deliverable in the time scale and will thereby rob 17.4 m voters of their democratic choice.
The result will be a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what Remainers deserve for the economic carnage it will create.
That will be May’s and the Tory remainers legacy - failure to deliver on Brexit and handing power to a bunch of hard left extremists. Great job !!!
Yes, for the first time since I made my famously large bet with williamglenn (Britain will be out of the EU by the end of 2019), I think I am probably going to lose it.
No Brexit is now more likely than Brexit.
Why? Because the only way out of this mess, as far as I can see, is to hand it back to the people: a 2nd vote. The alternative is a Corbyn government, which Tories will not countenance.
Moreover, there is surely a majority in the Commons for a 2nd referendum, which Remain would be favourite to win (but not a certainty).
Yes the only comfort for you is that you voted for precisely this. Enjoy the fruits of victory.
So Erskine May says the right to move an order of the day belongs to the House at large not just member in charge, then says it must be taken on by another member in absence of the forementioned one.
i.e. if the goverment doesn't move an order of the day, another member may so move in the government's absence?
So it looks to me like the house CAN force the meaningful vote, simply by moving to resume the business of last week, if the Leader of the House so declines.
May gives every impression of a chess player with just a king and a queen left, facing the massed ranks of her opponent's pieces and pawns. She can manoeuvre all she likes and fend off one attack after another for a while but sooner or later, weight of numbers will tell.
Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.
48 letters must be in tonight - surely.
If we assume that she is heading back to Brussels to renegotiate the backstop, then she is only doing what the ERG told her to do. Why put in a letter now if you didn't do so when Mogg said to do so?
Yes - the ERG would be as well waiting until she comes back with some feeble crumbs from the EU - then knife her.
I'm listening to Richard Burgon on the World at One. He is saying the Conservatives and the Government have lost all authority and don't know where they're going.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
A general election could solve that problem!
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
Speaking as a Liberal Leaver, I have virtually abandoned all hope of Leaving sans catastrophe, and if the alternative is a GE and a probable Corbyn government, I would rather have a 2nd referendum, and then I suspect I would vote, sadly and with some self hatred, for Remain.
This is coming down to realpolitik - and seriously nasty economic choices.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
A general election could solve that problem!
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
Speaking as a Liberal Leaver, I have virtually abandoned all hope of Leaving sans catastrophe, and if the alternative is a GE and a probable Corbyn government, I would rather have a 2nd referendum, and then I suspect I would vote, sadly and with some self hatred, for Remain.
This is coming down to realpolitik - and seriously nasty economic choices.
Speaking personally, I can live with the Deal that May has brought back, but the Commons cannot.
There are 400+ MPs who support Remain, and I can't see them failing to get their way.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
A general election could solve that problem!
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
The Tories did well in the 1930s out of a National Government as did the country. Personally it would have been my chosen vehicle in 2010 rather than the ConDem concoction. It would have nipped a lot of problems in the bud that we now face.
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
And leave was killed on 10 December 2018 (if not before).
Personal note. At a dinner party last Saturday, I opined that May's deal was the best compromise we were likely to get and I admired her for sticking to her guns and trying to get it through despite the widespread opposition. "That's what makes the difference between leaders and people who just kick the can down the road in the hope that something will turn up. She may lose now but the respect she'll gain will pay dividends later." (Or less articulate words to that effect - it was quite a nice Merlot I was drinking.)
May gives every impression of a chess player with just a king and a queen left, facing the massed ranks of her opponent's pieces and pawns. She can manoeuvre all she likes and fend off one attack after another for a while but sooner or later, weight of numbers will tell.
Unfortunately time is in short supply so that pointless fending off is doing the country harm. While I thought the challenge to her leadership was premature last month, if only because she could have survived it, a challenge can't be put off any longer.
I think Mrs May is going to the EU for a "final" negotiation, in the full knowledge that she will return empty handed. She is going to the 2nd vote on her deal while skipping the first.
This gives her more time (to think?) but it also blunts Johnson and Corbyn's attack lines of "You should renegotiate the deal". That line will be closed.
If her deal is still voted down,= as it probably will- then I think she will very reluctantly, and with the loss of some of her cabinet, announce that the people must decide. She will survive the immediate VNOC in her leadership and will survive 12 months to campaign for her deal in the referendum.
So Erskine May says the right to move an order of the day belongs to the House at large not just member in charge, then says it must be taken on by another member in absence of the forementioned one.
i.e. if the goverment doesn't move an order of the day, another member may so move in the government's absence?
So it looks to me like the house CAN force the meaningful vote, simply by moving to resume the business of last week, if the Leader of the House so declines.
Even if that’s not the case, it looks as if the government has a binary choice: either move the business or don’t. It can’t change the business without a programme motion, which won’t pass. So best case, it looks like the government’s only power is to shut down parliament until... well, until what exactly? The strategy seems to have moved from “keep Theresa safe for another week” to “keep Theresa safe for another 6 hours”.
Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.
48 letters must be in tonight - surely.
If we assume that she is heading back to Brussels to renegotiate the backstop, then she is only doing what the ERG told her to do. Why put in a letter now if you didn't do so when Mogg said to do so?
Agree. She can either deliver the goods - or resign.
ERG will just sit back, arms folded. And wait.
The likeliest outcome though is May expends her remaining political capital in Brussels (plus pledges a bunch of extra cash/concessions), shows it to Parliament with a flourish - and everyone goes "What the actual fuck is THAT?"
May gives every impression of a chess player with just a king and a queen left, facing the massed ranks of her opponent's pieces and pawns. She can manoeuvre all she likes and fend off one attack after another for a while but sooner or later, weight of numbers will tell.
She does not fit the difficult woman tag, rather a weak and lonely figure in the political jungle!
Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.
48 letters must be in tonight - surely.
If we assume that she is heading back to Brussels to renegotiate the backstop, then she is only doing what the ERG told her to do. Why put in a letter now if you didn't do so when Mogg said to do so?
Agree. She can either deliver the goods - or resign.
ERG will just sit back, arms folded. And wait.
The likeliest outcome though is May expends her remaining political capital in Brussels (plus pledges a bunch of extra cash/concessions), shows it to Parliament with a flourish - and everyone goes "What the actual fuck is THAT?"
May has no remaining political capital to spend, anywhere.
I think Mrs May is going to the EU for a "final" negotiation, in the full knowledge that she will return empty handed. She is going to the 2nd vote on her deal while skipping the first.
This gives her more time (to think?) but it also blunts Johnson and Corbyn's attack lines of "You should renegotiate the deal". That line will be closed.
If her deal is still voted down,= as it probably will- then I think she will very reluctantly, and with the loss of some of her cabinet, announce that the people must decide. She will survive the immediate VNOC in her leadership and will survive 12 months to campaign for her deal in the referendum.
That line will never be closed until someone else goes over to do the negotiations. Corbyn and Johnson will both (credibly) argue they believe in different things to May and would negotiate differently to May.
A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either
A general election could solve that problem!
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
Speaking as a Liberal Leaver, I have virtually abandoned all hope of Leaving sans catastrophe, and if the alternative is a GE and a probable Corbyn government, I would rather have a 2nd referendum, and then I suspect I would vote, sadly and with some self hatred, for Remain.
This is coming down to realpolitik - and seriously nasty economic choices.
You dolt. It was obvious that this would happen. That you are surprised (are you surprised) is about the only thing that is mildly surprising but then you were never that sharp to start with, albeit you have a great literary turn of phrase.
Personal note. At a dinner party last Saturday, I opined that May's deal was the best compromise we were likely to get and I admired her for sticking to her guns and trying to get it through despite the widespread opposition. "That's what makes the difference between leaders and people who just kick the can down the road in the hope that something will turn up. She may lose now but the respect she'll gain will pay dividends later." (Or less articulate words to that effect - it was quite a nice Merlot I was drinking.)
May gives every impression of a chess player with just a king and a queen left, facing the massed ranks of her opponent's pieces and pawns. She can manoeuvre all she likes and fend off one attack after another for a while but sooner or later, weight of numbers will tell.
They’ll miss her when she’s gone....
Sitting on the back benches quietly humming “Who’s sorry now?”
I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were
1 May's deal 2 No deal 3 Remain
May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.
Remain was killed by the people on 23rd June 2016. Assuming the MPs realise who their boss is.
The Queen?
Ha!
Or the 36% 'majority' who voted for something unspecific nearly 3 years ago?
Comments
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1072116581151457281
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1072107169305239552
Here's an idea: why not wait for a full 2 hours and 12 minutes, and see what she has to say?
https://twitter.com/adebradley/status/1072118335544926209
I feel ill.
I agree with Richard Burgon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288
"As President Juncker said, this deal is the best and only deal possible. We will not renegotiate - our position has therefore not changed and as far as we are concerned the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on 29 March, 2019."...
I agree though EUref2 is now near inevitable
There is still May's Deal Redux.
And then Boris's Deal Redux.
Months of Brexit fun still ahead of us.
It is a compelling drama - albeit of the comedy of humiliation genre.
This is more like Beckett trying his hand at French farce.
Mr Speaker keeping his cards close to his chest, but I'd expect him to be bombarded with points of order during Mrs Leadsom's statement.
"That Olly Robbins, eh? What a useless tosser.....now I'm off to Brussels to go and get us a REAL deal....."
Or the 36% 'majority' who voted for something unspecific nearly 3 years ago?
Currency traders profit from forecasts of economic divergence.
So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.
If they have the numbers, I think it makes good strategic sense for Corbyn to go in for the kill assuming he can do this. I cannot see why he could not do this as the Government does not after all have a parliamentary majority!
The convention question is a different matter. I think we are watching the final stages of the transfer of ultimate constitutional sovereignty from (the crown-in-)parliament to the people. As with previous transfers of power, the process is never entirely smooth.
A properly Remainy LotO
a) would have prevented a Brexit vote anyway as he got fully engaged with Remain
b) would have seen off the PM because the Tories would have been spooked by Labour's 20% lead and
c) would have had an all-party opposition united around Remain.
i.e. if the goverment doesn't move an order of the day, another member may so move in the government's absence?
So it looks to me like the house CAN force the meaningful vote, simply by moving to resume the business of last week, if the Leader of the House so declines.
Have I missed much?
Do I need to postpone my viewing of Wreck It Ralph 2?
There are 400+ MPs who support Remain, and I can't see them failing to get their way.
So I feel a little let down.
This gives her more time (to think?) but it also blunts Johnson and Corbyn's attack lines of "You should renegotiate the deal". That line will be closed.
If her deal is still voted down,= as it probably will- then I think she will very reluctantly, and with the loss of some of her cabinet, announce that the people must decide. She will survive the immediate VNOC in her leadership and will survive 12 months to campaign for her deal in the referendum.
ERG will just sit back, arms folded. And wait.
The likeliest outcome though is May expends her remaining political capital in Brussels (plus pledges a bunch of extra cash/concessions), shows it to Parliament with a flourish - and everyone goes "What the actual fuck is THAT?"
Sitting on the back benches quietly humming “Who’s sorry now?”
An absolute shower is Chris Grayling.