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System · December 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

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Pulpstar · December 2018

1st, Now Tommorow like the government whip.

MarqueeMark · December 2018

Second, like....who knows anymore.

asjohnstone · December 2018

siempre mañana

Bromptonaut · December 2018

There willl be no running commentary.

Oh wait ...

DavidL · December 2018

I thought that there was a poll yesterday which had both Labour and the Tories at 26%?

The scary thing for Labour is that both Nicola and Ruth are formidable campaigners whilst Leonard has so far had absolutely no impact whatsoever and the magic grandpa act seems to have very little traction in Scotland. The risks of Labour going backwards in Scotland in any election are indeed real.

SouthamObserver · December 2018

Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.

Donny43 · December 2018

I've given up making predictions about Scotland, which over the last two elections has totally given the lie to the concept of the "safe seat".

Jonathan · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.

I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.

DavidL · December 2018

Its also worth saying following the embarrassing shambles of yesterday that both parties are somewhat fortunate that Nicola restricts her ambitions to Scotland. An SNP equivalent, left of centre but broadly sane and rational (independence apart of course) tempered by the discipline of government and with a competent leader could wreak havoc in England at the moment, and not just in Labour seats either. There has to be a serious question as to whether any of our national parties are currently fit for purpose or sufficiently unified to provide a government.

YellowSubmarine · December 2018

The front pages. Ouch.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/11/what-fresh-brexit-hell-is-this-what-the-papers-say-about-mays-cancelled-vote

OldKingCole · December 2018

Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.

daodao · December 2018

It would be good if the next UK GE result in Scotland was identical to that in 2015.

SquareRoot · December 2018

YellowSubmarine said:
The front pages. Ouch.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/11/what-fresh-brexit-hell-is-this-what-the-papers-say-about-mays-cancelled-vote

Tomorrows fish and chip paper

Sandpit · December 2018

YellowSubmarine said:
The front pages. Ouch.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/11/what-fresh-brexit-hell-is-this-what-the-papers-say-about-mays-cancelled-vote

Top marks to the Scotsman. “Mayday, Mayday, Mayday”

I think Graham Brady’s postman is going to have a busy morning...

Pulpstar · December 2018

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.

Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.

Jonathan · December 2018

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.

There is a lot of party motivation driving this, which is why it should go to a vote. Parliament can’t deliver this.

DavidL · December 2018

daodao said:
It would be good if the next UK GE result in Scotland was identical to that in 2015.

Such a result again would almost certainly lead to independence for Scotland leaving Labour trying to win a majority in England and Wales. Not impossible but not common either.

Sandpit · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.

Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.

DavidL · December 2018

YellowSubmarine said:
The front pages. Ouch.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/11/what-fresh-brexit-hell-is-this-what-the-papers-say-about-mays-cancelled-vote

Quite like the Scotsman (for once): "Mayday, Mayday, abandon vote".

Donny43 · December 2018

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.

If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.

Donny43 · December 2018

Jonathan said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
There is a lot of party motivation driving this, which is why it should go to a vote. Parliament can’t deliver this.

It's gone to a vote twice. 85% the second time. The only obstacle to the deal passing the Commons is Corbyn's manoeuvring for personal power. A different kind of politics, you see.

OldKingCole · December 2018

Jonathan said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
There is a lot of party motivation driving this, which is why it should go to a vote. Parliament can’t deliver this.

Another Suez similarity is that there was a noisy group, both in the country and Parliament which harked back to a time when, faced with a situation like this, Britian's military force would have been enough on it's own. Now we have a similar noisy group harking back to a time when Britain was self-sufficient in food and natuaral resources. 'An island of coal surrounded by a sea full of fish'. Or something.

Pulpstar · December 2018

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.

The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.

DavidL · December 2018

Donny43 said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.

What election? If Labour had had an apparently competent leader 2017 would not have happened. Whether that would have got May any closer to a majority for her plan is a lot less certain.

Jonathan · December 2018

Donny43 said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.

Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.

DavidL · December 2018

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.

The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.

Jonathan · December 2018

Donny43 said:

Jonathan said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
There is a lot of party motivation driving this, which is why it should go to a vote. Parliament can’t deliver this.
It's gone to a vote twice. 85% the second time. The only obstacle to the deal passing the Commons is Corbyn's manoeuvring for personal power. A different kind of politics, you see.

That really is bullshit. If May had the support of her own party Labour would be irrelevant. Her weakness brings Labour into play.

Sandpit · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.

Indeed. But Tories still in power, albeit by the skin of their teeth.

FPT:
It’s quite possible that we now enter a period of utter stalemate with a ticking clock. Someone is going to have to do something to break the logjam, remembering that No Deal is the default result and the Executive control the Parliamentary timetable.

Even if the “meaningful” vote were to have passed, there’s still a lot of legislation resulting which needs to pass to avoid no-deal, and as much as some remainers like to think that a single vote in Parliament will be sufficient to revoke A50, it’s likely to require primary legislation which practically can only be proposed by the government.

I think the Conservatives are more likely to go with a replacement PM for a harder renegotiation than a softer one (say a Gove or Davis rather than a Hammond or Rudd), but I think the PCP as a whole will support whoever is there, rather than vote against the government in a vote of confidence and force an election where Corbyn might get in.

The FTPA is a massive complication in all this, and will prolong the stalemate so long as no Conservatives actually cross the floor. If I were Uncle Vince I’d be having a good long chat with Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen, to really throw the cat among the pigeons.

Oh, and I just noticed that the pound dropped two cents on the dollar yesterday, so today’s a good day to buy the Christmas holiday pounds. Not all is bad in the world!

Foxy · December 2018

DavidL said:
I thought that there was a poll yesterday which had both Labour and the Tories at 26%?

The scary thing for Labour is that both Nicola and Ruth are formidable campaigners whilst Leonard has so far had absolutely no impact whatsoever and the magic grandpa act seems to have very little traction in Scotland. The risks of Labour going backwards in Scotland in any election are indeed real.

On the other hand, there are a fair number of Scottish seats that could go Labour with fairly small swings.

Sturgeon is competent, but tainted by the patina of government, Davidson otherwise busy at present, and it is very likely that May's deal is even less popular in Scotland than south of the border.

Any GE would be wide open and unpredictable. Unlike a #peoplesvote it would not focus on Brexit.

Donny43 · December 2018

DavidL said:

Donny43 said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.
What election? If Labour had had an apparently competent leader 2017 would not have happened. Whether that would have got May any closer to a majority for her plan is a lot less certain.

I'm not so sure. The desire to push the next election beyond the end of the Transition period would surely have been there anyway.

Sandpit · December 2018

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.

True, it does appear that the two largest parties are currently un-whippable.

I hope MPs haven’t made plans for Christmas.

DavidL · December 2018

Foxy said:

DavidL said:
I thought that there was a poll yesterday which had both Labour and the Tories at 26%?

The scary thing for Labour is that both Nicola and Ruth are formidable campaigners whilst Leonard has so far had absolutely no impact whatsoever and the magic grandpa act seems to have very little traction in Scotland. The risks of Labour going backwards in Scotland in any election are indeed real.
On the other hand, there are a fair number of Scottish seats that could go Labour with fairly small swings.

Sturgeon is competent, but tainted by the patina of government, Davidson otherwise busy at present, and it is very likely that May's deal is even less popular in Scotland than south of the border.

Any GE would be wide open and unpredictable. Unlike a #peoplesvote it would not focus on Brexit.

Pretty much all of Glasgow for a start. But they are not well placed at the moment and Leonard is looking like a mistake.

AmpfieldAndy · December 2018

Jonathan said:

Donny43 said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.

That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.

DavidL · December 2018

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
True, it does appear that the two largest parties are currently un-whippable.

I hope MPs haven’t made plans for Christmas.

They deserve it. They have completely failed to find a workable solution for the UK that can come close to majority support. May has to take primary responsibility of course but none of them are blameless.

YellowSubmarine · December 2018

If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807

Roger · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.

Corbyn looks like he's throwing away the opportunity of a lifetime. At a tiime when the country is looking for leadership he offers nothing other than saying he is going to look at universal credit.

Casino_Royale · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.

Indeed. She needs to win the vote more than once.

IanB2 · December 2018

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.
Indeed. But Tories still in power, albeit by the skin of their teeth.

FPT:
It’s quite possible that we now enter a period of utter stalemate with a ticking clock. Someone is going to have to do something to break the logjam, remembering that No Deal is the default result and the Executive control the Parliamentary timetable.

Even if the “meaningful” vote were to have passed, there’s still a lot of legislation resulting which needs to pass to avoid no-deal, and as much as some remainers like to think that a single vote in Parliament will be sufficient to revoke A50, it’s likely to require primary legislation which practically can only be proposed by the government.

I think the Conservatives are more likely to go with a replacement PM for a harder renegotiation than a softer one (say a Gove or Davis rather than a Hammond or Rudd), but I think the PCP as a whole will support whoever is there, rather than vote against the government in a vote of confidence and force an election where Corbyn might get in.

The FTPA is a massive complication in all this, and will prolong the stalemate so long as no Conservatives actually cross the floor. If I were Uncle Vince I’d be having a good long chat with Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen, to really throw the cat among the pigeons.

Oh, and I just noticed that the pound dropped two cents on the dollar yesterday, so today’s a good day to buy the Christmas holiday pounds. Not all is bad in the world!

Your pleasure in our collapsing currency isn't welcome.

IanB2 · December 2018

Donny43 said:
I've given up making predictions about Scotland, which over the last two elections has totally given the lie to the concept of the "safe seat".

We could do with some of that south of the border.

Foxy · December 2018

AmpfieldAndy said:

Jonathan said:

Donny43 said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.
That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.

Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.

Sandpit · December 2018

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.
Indeed. But Tories still in power, albeit by the skin of their teeth.

FPT:
It’s quite possible that we now enter a period of utter stalemate with a ticking clock. Someone is going to have to do something to break the logjam, remembering that No Deal is the default result and the Executive control the Parliamentary timetable.

Even if the “meaningful” vote were to have passed, there’s still a lot of legislation resulting which needs to pass to avoid no-deal, and as much as some remainers like to think that a single vote in Parliament will be sufficient to revoke A50, it’s likely to require primary legislation which practically can only be proposed by the government.

I think the Conservatives are more likely to go with a replacement PM for a harder renegotiation than a softer one (say a Gove or Davis rather than a Hammond or Rudd), but I think the PCP as a whole will support whoever is there, rather than vote against the government in a vote of confidence and force an election where Corbyn might get in.

The FTPA is a massive complication in all this, and will prolong the stalemate so long as no Conservatives actually cross the floor. If I were Uncle Vince I’d be having a good long chat with Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen, to really throw the cat among the pigeons.

Oh, and I just noticed that the pound dropped two cents on the dollar yesterday, so today’s a good day to buy the Christmas holiday pounds. Not all is bad in the world!
Your pleasure in our collapsing currency isn't welcome.

It’s very welcome if you get paid in USD and are visiting the UK next week!
It’s also good news for exporters, although less so for consumers of Chinese tat.

Oh, and 2 cents vs the dollar is hardly “collapsing”, it’s 1.5%.

IanB2 · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The bill needs further passage than the meaningful vote to become law. One must conclude Corbyn wishes to see the Tories humiliated rather than a GE.

Hence today Corbyn has insisted on having a Meaningless Vote.

CD13 · December 2018

Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.

Foxy · December 2018

Roger said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
Corbyn looks like he's throwing away the opportunity of a lifetime. At a tiime when the country is looking for leadership he offers nothing other than saying he is going to look at universal credit.

Corbyn simply is not that bothered by Brexit either way. If parliament was debating Palestinian seccession rather than UK he would be much more interested.

MarqueeMark · December 2018

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.

A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

Charles · December 2018

@Anazina FPT

Re:violence

Where we differ is conflation

I see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it’s a nutter

You see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it represents the position of a meaningful proportion of Brexiteers

OldKingCole · December 2018

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.

'Speak for England'. Arthur Greenwood could, although he was only acting as Labour that day!

Foxy · December 2018

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.

Alistair · December 2018

Donny43 said:
I've given up making predictions about Scotland, which over the last two elections has totally given the lie to the concept of the "safe seat".

Scotland has been incredibly profitable these last 2 UK general elections. Trivially easy to predict.

A GE in the next few months I would be clueless and probably wouldn't bet.

Jonathan · December 2018

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.

My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.

IanB2 · December 2018

Charles said:
@Anazina FPT

Re:violence

Where we differ is conflation

I see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it’s a nutter

You see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it represents the position of a meaningful proportion of Brexiteers

A meaningful proportion of those we see in the media aren't violent but are certainly nutty.

Jonathan · December 2018

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.

Quite. Just get on with it.

IanB2 · December 2018

This social mobility commission doesn't seem to be working if it's chair always has to be a Milburn?

YellowSubmarine · December 2018

After the collapse of Moorside Wylfa might be in trouble. It's amazing how many if these economic stories that would normally get traction are just drowned out at the moment. Interserve is another example.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/uk-nuclear-plant-hitachi-wylfa-anglesey

CD13 · December 2018

Do you ever feel sorry for Mrs May? She's not up to the job, but she's doing her poor best. And the sight of her being attacked by a pack of hyenas is unedifying. Being a sexist, I do feel a little sympathetic. Had it been Philip, I wold have joined in the kicking. Had it been Cameron, I'd have been first in line with the hobnail boots.

Even worse, she's heading for another kicking from the EU. Calm down, dear, they're not worth it.

IanB2 · December 2018

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.
Quite. Just get on with it.

Think about it for a bit, then do it. 2
Just get on with it. 1
Wait to be pushed into it. 3
Don't bother. 4

SouthamObserver · December 2018

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.

He is trying to do anything to avoid taking action that might prevent a Tory Brexit and, ideally, a no deal one.

IanB2 · December 2018

CD13 said:
Do you ever feel sorry for Mrs May? She's not up to the job, but she's doing her poor best. And the sight of her being attacked by a pack of hyenas is unedifying. Being a sexist, I do feel a little sympathetic. Had it been Philip, I wold have joined in the kicking. Had it been Cameron, I'd have been first in line with the hobnail boots.

Even worse, she's heading for another kicking from the EU. Calm down, dear, they're not worth it.

I think a lot of people do, hence her poll ratings are actually holding up pretty well. It's those of us who examine in more detail who see that she that set out to solve a problem that would always require an element of cross-party consensus in the worst possible way.

asjohnstone · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.

She wants the same thing, but with the added bonus of blaming Corbyn for it too. It's how she wins.

Sandpit · December 2018

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
True, it does appear that the two largest parties are currently un-whippable.

I hope MPs haven’t made plans for Christmas.
They deserve it. They have completely failed to find a workable solution for the UK that can come close to majority support. May has to take primary responsibility of course but none of them are blameless.

Matt, as always, sums up that a picture is worth a thousand words.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1072193478417891329/photo/1

DavidL · December 2018

YellowSubmarine said:
If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807

Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.

On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.

On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.

As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.

It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.

MarqueeMark · December 2018

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.

Too many will fear it will be seen by the 52% as a naked attempt to override their first "peoples" vote.

And they'd be right. Welcome to Unimaginable World of Pain.

The only hope is a new PM, new negotiators, new negotiation with EU that comes up with a new settlement of the Irish border. That the MPs can rush through with a collective "phew!!"

Pulpstar · December 2018

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.

Very true. Most recently wolf was cried at Ed Miliband. Now Corbyn is at the door....

tottenhamWC · December 2018

Wonder if any of the following scenarios are possible:
- TM is VONC'd by her own party (or by Corbyn) and can only win that vote by promising a specific date for the meaningful vote
- TM loses a VONC by the Tories and an interim PM (subject to the election of a new Tory leader) puts her vote to the HoC; or (if this doesn't happen) A50 is extended given above

OldKingCole · December 2018

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.

They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.

Pulpstar · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
Very true. Most recently wolf was cried at Ed Miliband. Now Corbyn is at the door....

https://ponyonthetories.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-cry-wolf-election.html?m=1

MarqueeMark · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
Very true. Most recently wolf was cried at Ed Miliband. Now Corbyn is at the door....

Whilst somehow ignoring that the crappiest party leader, doing the most damage to the UK, is actually their own......

Casino_Royale · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.

He is trying to do anything to avoid taking action that might prevent a Tory Brexit and, ideally, a no deal one.

Correct.

Pulpstar · December 2018

tottenhamWC said:
Wonder if any of the following scenarios are possible:
- TM is VONC'd by her own party (or by Corbyn) and can only win that vote by promising a specific date for the meaningful vote
- TM loses a VONC by the Tories and an interim PM (subject to the election of a new Tory leader) puts her vote to the HoC; or (if this doesn't happen) A50 is extended given above

i Won't happen, the government has the DUP propping it up, a party particularly uninterested in functional government - but hard as nails on red lines.

DavidL · December 2018

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.

I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.

Casino_Royale · December 2018

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
Very true. Most recently wolf was cried at Ed Miliband. Now Corbyn is at the door....

Corbyn is a wolf in wolf’s clothing.

MarqueeMark · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.

He is trying to do anything to avoid taking action that might prevent a Tory Brexit and, ideally, a no deal one.

Astonishingly, his Remainy Party are letting him do it.

Jeremy Corbyn - (No Deal) Brexit's Bessy Mate.

SouthamObserver · December 2018

asjohnstone said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
She wants the same thing, but with the added bonus of blaming Corbyn for it too. It's how she wins.

Yep. Both Corbyn and Sturgeon would be happy for the UK to break-up. They’re working well together.

Morris_Dancer · December 2018

Good morning, everyone.

Charles · December 2018

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.

Oooh... you mean we can blame Labour?

😖

OldKingCole · December 2018

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.
I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.

Yup, don't think Brown was 'hated' either. There was considerable personal dislike as a result of his attitude. In many ways Brown was similar to Cameron; thought they'd be good as PM but once iin post couldn't hack it.

numbertwelve · December 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?

Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.

The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.

And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.

Tick, tock.......tick, tock......

A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.
Too many will fear it will be seen by the 52% as a naked attempt to override their first "peoples" vote.

And they'd be right. Welcome to Unimaginable World of Pain.

The only hope is a new PM, new negotiators, new negotiation with EU that comes up with a new settlement of the Irish border. That the MPs can rush through with a collective "phew!!"

Still think the hope will be when it comes to the crunch MPs back this deal rather than no deal. Because the nearer we get to March, the far more likely it becomes. All the wheezes about new referenda go from being impractical to nigh on impossible if we get into say late Jan.

SouthamObserver · December 2018

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:
If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.

On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.

On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.

As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.

It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.

Hmmm.

The current government is not irremoveable. Your first point might have more substance if the Tories had a large majority, but even then it would be flakey. Political events happen. Leaders change, as do government policies and aims. This time yesterday we were 100% certain to be having a vote on the WA today, remember.

mr-claypole · December 2018

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.

That one had a drug addled PM to add to the mix. Suez is very similar to Brexit though in that it taught the British political class in stark term the limits of UK power. A lesson that was in the long term useful as the next generation of Politicians engaged with the world but avoided overstepping for example Vietnam.

Interesting that Gove was disappointed the vote is not going ahead- almost as if even he just wants it to be over now.

OldKingCole · December 2018

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
Oooh... you mean we can blame Labour?

😖

Well, I'm sure that with a Smith or even a pre-Iraq Blair in charge Labour would be making a lot more headway.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.

OldKingCole · December 2018

mr-claypole said:

OldKingCole said:
Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
That one had a drug addled PM to add to the mix. Suez is very similar to Brexit though in that it taught the British political class in stark term the limits of UK power. A lesson that was in the long term useful as the next generation of Politicians engaged with the world but avoided overstepping for example Vietnam.

Interesting that Gove was disappointed the vote is not going ahead- almost as if even he just wants it to be over now.

As opposed to just an addled PM!

SouthamObserver · December 2018

Very hard to argue against this:
https://twitter.com/polprofsteve/status/1072400219579523078?s=21

AlastairMeeks · December 2018

Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496

DavidL · December 2018

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.
I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.
Yup, don't think Brown was 'hated' either. There was considerable personal dislike as a result of his attitude. In many ways Brown was similar to Cameron; thought they'd be good as PM but once iin post couldn't hack it.

For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime.

MarqueeMark · December 2018

numbertwelve said:
Still think the hope will be when it comes to the crunch MPs back this deal rather than no deal. Because the nearer we get to March, the far more likely it becomes. All the wheezes about new referenda go from being impractical to nigh on impossible if we get into say late Jan.

Reckon it would have to be rebadged by a new PM as "Yes, it's shit. But it really IS the only shit on offer...."

Nobody wants to offer round the same old shit sandwiches though. Hence the letters haven't gone in before. But seeing Theresa May and Olly Robbins going back to the EU for "clarifications" and "assurances"....sheeesh. They both need to be made to Step. Away. From. Brexit......

IanB2 · December 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496

Lay them all?

asjohnstone · December 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496

In order to lay them all ?

I thought Mordaunt was their pick? I'm picking she refused to resign when she was told too.

SouthamObserver · December 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496

Any of them would be a gift to Labour.

Morris_Dancer · December 2018

Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.

Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.

There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.

DavidL · December 2018

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:
If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.

On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.

On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.

As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.

It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.

Hmmm.

The current government is not irremoveable. Your first point might have more substance if the Tories had a large majority, but even then it would be flakey. Political events happen. Leaders change, as do government policies and aims. This time yesterday we were 100% certain to be having a vote on the WA today, remember.

I agree this government is very far from immovable, indeed one wonders if it will see out the week. But trying to conceive how we get to a government willing to introduce a bill designed to revoke the Art 50 notice is at the outer reaches of hypothetical. I don't think it will be possible, short of another election.

Sandpit · December 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496

Davis of those four? Definitely lay the other three.

SquareRoot · December 2018

asjohnstone said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Useful for betting purposes:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
In order to lay them all ?

I thought Mordaunt was their pick? I'm picking she refused to resign when she was told too.

That's their best choices.. jeeez

CD13 · December 2018

Mr L,

"For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime."

Bravo. You might be totally wrong, but so am I then. That's exactly my opinion. I voted for all of them but Brown, By the late nineties, I'd defected to Charlie K. Brown was certainly made barmy by the promotion. Kinnock stood up to Militant, Foot - well meaning, and Harold too clever for his own good possibly.

Donny43 · December 2018

MarqueeMark said:
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.

The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.

The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.

A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.

500+ MPs were elected on promises to deliver the referendum result. Have they even realised?

Wulfrun_Phil · December 2018

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.
I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.
Yup, don't think Brown was 'hated' either. There was considerable personal dislike as a result of his attitude. In many ways Brown was similar to Cameron; thought they'd be good as PM but once iin post couldn't hack it.
For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime.

You missed out John Smith, who would have been the best PM of the lot.

Dura_Ace · December 2018

Sandpit said:
/1072395069712490496

Davis of those four?

What's appeal of Davis?

timmo · December 2018

Leadsom just lays into Bercow on R4..this is only going to get worse

AlastairMeeks · December 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.

Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.

There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.

I didn't say one of them would win. But knowing that they've got a bloc of 12 very noisy MPs supporting them gives them a small head start that's worth knowing about for betting purposes.

DavidL · December 2018

Wulfrun_Phil said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:

CD13 said:
Mr Jonathan,

"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."

I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.
I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.
Yup, don't think Brown was 'hated' either. There was considerable personal dislike as a result of his attitude. In many ways Brown was similar to Cameron; thought they'd be good as PM but once iin post couldn't hack it.
For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime.
You missed out John Smith, who would have been the best PM of the lot.

Clever and fundamentally decent. Had he lived he would probably have been a good PM. Still talked of fondly by the oldest members of the Faculty to this day.

SouthamObserver · December 2018

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:
If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.

On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.

On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.

As they in partever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.

It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.

Hmmm.

The current government is not irremoveable. Your first point might have more substance if the Tories had a large majority, but even then it would be flakey. Political events happen. Leaders change, as do government policies and aims. This time yesterday we were 100% certain to be having a vote on the WA today, remember.

I agree this government is very far from immovable, indeed one wonders if it will see out the week. But trying to conceive how we get to a government willing to introduce a bill designed to revoke the Art 50 notice is at the outer reaches of hypothetical. I don't think it will be possible, short of another election.

Sure, but the CJEU’s job was not to look at that it was to decide whether the issue was hypothetical. Clearly, it isn’t.

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