TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her
I expect her to win this confidence vote. But more importantly as I noted early it changes NOTHING with regards to the impossibility of getting her deal through Parliament. Notable from PMQs was her increasingly discomfort on trying to deflect demands for a commons vote on the deal - her position is absurd and she knows it.
What the confidence motion will do is cement in place the defeat to come for her deal. Once that happens she will not be able to lead regardless of the rules of the Tory Party and her tenure will end. No government defeated on its key policy unable to negotiate a way forward either with the other side or its own MPs is able to remain functional as the government. Regardless of their views on the opposition.
I am sure you are not surprised but I do not agree. The deal will come to the HOC and the mps will no doubt put forward amendments and the HOC will show the way forward but TM will only leave office if labour succeed in a vnoc
Lets break that into its two halves. 1. The deal will not pass. They can amend it - the Benn "amendment" bins the deal completely. But the deal in the form agreed by the "no further negotiations" EU will not pass. 2. What way forward will May then bring? She has removed all other options as things she is prepared to do. You expect that Parliament will sit back and allow the PM to stand there arms crossed scowling and stamping her foot saying "shan't"?
Will we definitely get a result? Could Sir Graham simply announce that May has won comfortably? Would possibly give them a chance of moving on a little quicker?
Quite envious of all these MPs who get to vote on whether to confirm / amend their 2016 decision in light of what they've seen since. Might be a habit that catches on?
A very poor analysis from Evan Davis, uncharacteristically. An in-built majority for remain is not in any way the same as a unified bloc for remain. The provisional ERG are much better organised than the disparate waves of remainers seprated by party. No-deal can break the tory party, but that doesn't necessarily mean that remainers can ever lead it again - even in the worst-case crisis scenario now.
Softer than May’s deal? Quite difficult to imagine. Maybe permanent membership of the SM and FoM?
I.e. Norway?
I haven't seen the slightest evidence to support the idea there's a workable Norway majority in Parliament, nor that the EU have the slightest need to let us try for one.
The deal is the deal. Three options stand before us, and Parliament has three months to decide.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
I would absolutely not be surprised if the ERG decide to peel off and form an independent bloc. And take the DUP with them.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
She'd get a deal passed with Labour votes. Then we can have a GE in April.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
She'd get a deal passed with Labour votes. Then we can have a GE in April.
Not necessarily, she needs the biggest possible number.
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?
Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
No-one will be stupid enough to have a second referendum William. They won't. Too hard. Not even a rigged one. It was done the minute the result came in, no matter how many grand plans it buggered up and how many powers and potentates were and are against it. There is no road back. You'd have been a lot happier over these past months had you accepted it.
Have you now accepted that your disgusting claim on here that Jo Cox's murder was a false flag operation was a horrific lie? Once you accept that, you can perhaps start lecturing others.
I do hope you find some happiness and self-love. Bitterness and hatred are exceptionally bad for your health. Never too late to turn things around.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
She'd get a deal passed with Labour votes. Then we can have a GE in April.
*Which* deal?
The on that Starmer would agree with the EU over the Christmas holidays...
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
I would absolutely not be surprised if the ERG decide to peel off and form an independent bloc. And take the DUP with them.
There's a gap in the market where UKIP used to be - maybe hard to hold their Westminster seats but they're playing their cards right to get into the European Parliament...
The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters. People who are virrulently against Brexit disliking a pro-Brexit group non-shock.
Do not worry - it took them years to negotiate that. Dr Fox flies out shortly and will negotiate an equivalent or better one for us between lunch and dinner...
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
That assumes May doesn’t do a deal with Labour to get a deal through despite their opposition. I am struggling to see the ERG staying in the party after this, particularly if May wins comfortably.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
The argument was paper thin before, but after the ECJ ruling it's imbecilic.
Absolutely NOBODY believes May will let us No Deal, when a painless remain is only a phone call is away. May cannot surely have such a low opinion of her colleagues that she think they'd fall for that now, after everything has happened.
If Remainers force May to take it to 28th March, May will revoke A50. Everyone knows it. She knows it. Labour knows it. Tory remainers know it.
To pretend otherwise is an insult to all our intellects.
Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.
Yes. If I was among even the softest of remainers from the Tories, I would be one of the first to cast my no-confidence vote, and conversely, if I was among even the softest of Brexiters, I would be taking to the radio waves to support her.
That's the nonsense of the situation. She is delivering Brexit, and whilst you might quibble over detail, any responsible politician will quickly realise that it has to be done carefully and in stages. So you'd think the leavers should be supporting her and the remainers not, since if she goes it clearly puts the whole escapade at risk on grounds of timetable at least. Yet judging from the airwaves the situation is precisely the reverse.
Which is not to say that she has handled it well, but what is done is done.
Not necessarily, she needs the biggest possible number.
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
If Labour abstain the DUP don't need to be onside.
Labour would clearly love May to lose the confidence vote today because they would fancy their chances better against any likely replacement... but it's not happening so Jezza and McDonnell will have to try another approach.
Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.
Yes. If I was among even the softest of remainers from the Tories, I would be one of the first to cast my no-confidence vote, and conversely, if I was among even the softest of Brexiters, I would be taking to the radio waves to support her.
That's the nonsense of the situation. She is delivering Brexit, and whilst you might quibble over detail, any responsible politician will quickly realise that it has to be done carefully and in stages. So you'd think the leavers should be supporting her and the remainers not, since if she goes it clearly puts the whole escapade at risk on grounds of timetable at least. Yet judging from the airwaves the situation is precisely the reverse.
Which is not to say that she has handled it well, but what is done is done.
Remainers aren't supporting her deal, they're just 100% convinced that May will have no choice but to sue for peace eventually, so are happy to let her indulge in as much pointless displacement activity and futile gesture politics as it takes to get us to 21st January.
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
More than clarifications, she specifically mentioned "legally-binding" wrt an addendum on the backstop. Her first stop in Europe being Mark Rutte gives a clue where she's going: he managed exactly that with the Dutch referendum on the Ukraine-EU agreement.
Not necessarily, she needs the biggest possible number.
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
FFS even Boris has a better idea. Go back to Brussels and demand changes to the backstop that would make it acceptable to the DUP and the Tories and thus Parliament.
The EU don't want to do that, but they don't want no deal either. When even Boris has a better idea than the current PM we're in a sad situation.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
The argument was paper thin before, but after the ECJ ruling it's imbecilic.
Absolutely NOBODY believes May will let us No Deal, when a painless remain is only a phone call is away. May cannot surely have such a low opinion of her colleagues that she think they'd fall for that now, after everything has happened.
If Remainers force May to take it to 28th March, May will revoke A50. Everyone knows it. She knows it. Labour knows it. Tory remainers know it.
To pretend otherwise is an insult to all our intellects.
Yes, I agree, and in any case the Commons could not give way to blackmail, which is effectively what she would be trying.
TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her
I expect her to win this confidence vote. But more importantly as I noted early it changes NOTHING with regards to the impossibility of getting her deal through Parliament. Notable from PMQs was her increasingly discomfort on trying to deflect demands for a commons vote on the deal - her position is absurd and she knows it.
What the confidence motion will do is cement in place the defeat to come for her deal. Once that happens she will not be able to lead regardless of the rules of the Tory Party and her tenure will end. No government defeated on its key policy unable to negotiate a way forward either with the other side or its own MPs is able to remain functional as the government. Regardless of their views on the opposition.
I am sure you are not surprised but I do not agree. The deal will come to the HOC and the mps will no doubt put forward amendments and the HOC will show the way forward but TM will only leave office if labour succeed in a vnoc
Lets break that into its two halves. 1. The deal will not pass. They can amend it - the Benn "amendment" bins the deal completely. But the deal in the form agreed by the "no further negotiations" EU will not pass. 2. What way forward will May then bring? She has removed all other options as things she is prepared to do. You expect that Parliament will sit back and allow the PM to stand there arms crossed scowling and stamping her foot saying "shan't"?
2) - with respect of course she wont. Once the meaningful vote and amendments have taken place a way through will become more apparent and I would expect her to act accordingly
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
The argument was paper thin before, but after the ECJ ruling it's imbecilic.
Absolutely NOBODY believes May will let us No Deal, when a painless remain is only a phone call is away. May cannot surely have such a low opinion of her colleagues that she think they'd fall for that now, after everything has happened.
If Remainers force May to take it to 28th March, May will revoke A50. Everyone knows it. She knows it. Labour knows it. Tory remainers know it.
To pretend otherwise is an insult to all our intellects.
Unclear that the PM can revoke Article 50 without parliamentary authority, and even if she did there would still be the need for a lot of legislation to undo the previous Act.
The essence of this is that parliament cannot for ever refuse to make a decision - or, if it does, we crash out without a deal, effectively on the votes of Labour, the LibDems, the SNP and the headbangers.
May was always going to win. The interesting question is how many will actually vote against her and whether it will be enough to make her see sense and resign. Her team are already trying to allay concerns that this is not a vote about who leads the Tories into the next election so they must be concerned votes against are going to be high.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
The argument was paper thin before, but after the ECJ ruling it's imbecilic.
Absolutely NOBODY believes May will let us No Deal, when a painless remain is only a phone call is away. May cannot surely have such a low opinion of her colleagues that she think they'd fall for that now, after everything has happened.
If Remainers force May to take it to 28th March, May will revoke A50. Everyone knows it. She knows it. Labour knows it. Tory remainers know it.
To pretend otherwise is an insult to all our intellects.
Quite. The most likely scenario is for parliament to vote to revoke at the 11th hour just as we are about to go over the cliff, probably in mid March. Whether or not May is still PM will not make any difference.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
She'd get a deal passed with Labour votes. Then we can have a GE in April.
*Which* deal?
Well, quite. May won't settle for anything but her Deal, which Parliament won't pass. Corbyn won't settle for anything but his Deal, which Parliament can't pass because it is imaginary. The majority in Parliament would rather stay, but can't vote for that because they have no possible Government to pass it - and they can't create one themselves without breaking communion with their colleagues on both sides of the House.
The paralysis therefore continues, the clock keeps ticking down, and Hard Brexit gets closer and closer.
Interesting notion that you have about the ERG-wing splitting off and allying themselves with the DUP, by the way. Kind of Enoch Powell-esque. On the one hand, there's no reason on Earth why they couldn't resign the Tory whip but keep the Government on life support until after they've got what they want, of course.
On the other hand, it would be a pretty drastic step, and I don't think any of the Tories want a split if they can possibly avoid it. Would risk a Corbyn landslide and, more importantly, their own jobs.
Softer than May’s deal? Quite difficult to imagine. Maybe permanent membership of the SM and FoM?
I.e. Norway?
Norway is outside the customs union.
DavidL mentioned SM and FoM, not CU.
Only permanent membership of the/a CU removes the need for the backstop.
It doesn't, because the future relationship cannot be agreed before the Withdrawal Agreement comes into force. So the nature and details of the future relationship are completely irrelevant to the impasse.
TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her
I expect her to win this confidence vote. But more importantly as I noted early it changes NOTHING with regards to the impossibility of getting her deal through Parliament. Notable from PMQs was her increasingly discomfort on trying to deflect demands for a commons vote on the deal - her position is absurd and she knows it.
What the confidence motion will do is cement in place the defeat to come for her deal. Once that happens she will not be able to lead regardless of the rules of the Tory Party and her tenure will end. No government defeated on its key policy unable to negotiate a way forward either with the other side or its own MPs is able to remain functional as the government. Regardless of their views on the opposition.
I am sure you are not surprised but I do not agree. The deal will come to the HOC and the mps will no doubt put forward amendments and the HOC will show the way forward but TM will only leave office if labour succeed in a vnoc
Lets break that into its two halves. 1. The deal will not pass. They can amend it - the Benn "amendment" bins the deal completely. But the deal in the form agreed by the "no further negotiations" EU will not pass. 2. What way forward will May then bring? She has removed all other options as things she is prepared to do. You expect that Parliament will sit back and allow the PM to stand there arms crossed scowling and stamping her foot saying "shan't"?
2) - with respect of course she wont. Once the meaningful vote and amendments have taken place a way through will become more apparent and I would expect her to act accordingly
Not necessarily, she needs the biggest possible number.
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
FFS even Boris has a better idea. Go back to Brussels and demand changes to the backstop that would make it acceptable to the DUP and the Tories and thus Parliament.
The EU don't want to do that, but they don't want no deal either. When even Boris has a better idea than the current PM we're in a sad situation.
Yes or David Davis' idea of revoking and invoking Article 50 again to give us 2 years to prepare for no deal.
Pretending May's deal is the only option when it has clearly failed (and it has completely and utterly failed), whilst calling anyone who come up with alternatives loons and moonbats is idiotic.
The loons are the ones endlessly following May's suicidal course of action.
Andrea Jenkyns saying her colleagues are saying publically they will support the Prime Minister but telling her privately that they wont. She not content to trash her own reputation she's happy to take her party down with her.
What a piece of work! I can't remember such a sleazeball MP. Ever. If Eagle campaigned for her his judgement must have been impaired.
That smell is not just damp tweed. It is burning bridges. How do they take May’s whip after this?when you look at Hammonds comments will they even have the choice?
Softer than May’s deal? Quite difficult to imagine. Maybe permanent membership of the SM and FoM?
I.e. Norway?
Norway is outside the customs union.
DavidL mentioned SM and FoM, not CU.
Only permanent membership of the/a CU removes the need for the backstop.
It doesn't, because the future relationship cannot be agreed before the Withdrawal Agreement comes into force. So the nature and details of the future relationship are completely irrelevant to the impasse.
The lack of understanding with regards to the detail by some opponents of May (McVey yesterday) is breathtaking.
Boris Johnson can be laid at 5.5 for next leader. That looks like good value to me.
Given that there may not be the votes for an ERG'er to get on the ballot, he might not even be the favoured candidate of the ERG and it's not guaranteed he would win with the membership.
Not necessarily, she needs the biggest possible number.
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
If Labour abstain the DUP don't need to be onside.
Labour would clearly love May to lose the confidence vote today because they would fancy their chances better against any likely replacement... but it's not happening so Jezza and McDonnell will have to try another approach.
I'm not sure why they would. The "best PM" has such a high "don't know" block (which basically means "neither") that there's a large dividend waiting for the first party to change its leader.
After a wobble and almost a spot of infidelity I am cosying back up to my long held view. The WDA eventually passes and we leave the EU on 29 March 2019 on those terms. It may seem improbable right now but all of the alternatives look considerably more so.
Phil Hammond saying vote will flush out the extremists in the party trying to advance an agenda not in the interest of the Country
Oh yeah, because calling your Parliamentary colleagues terrorists is *really* going to win them round in the meaningful vote.
For the benefit of accuracy the word he used was extremists not 'terrorists'
It was still a stupid thing to say. Unless there is an ACTIVE effort to drive the ERG into resigning the whip, in which case it makes sense.
Accuracy of the quote was my concern. But it does look like the ERG are coming under considerable criticsm
Understandable - as a pragmatic leaver I feel they've got their tactics wrong. Likely as not tomorrow we'll be thinking what the hell was that all about as T May heads off to Europe having secured another 12 months.
The demonisation of the ERG for trying to honour the result of the referendum is laughable.
Most of these rumours are completely made up and the usual morons are lapping it up.
The position of the ERG is impossible to reconcile with any principles of good government. They seem to simultaneously reject any of the compromises that would make their proposal work. DD (honorary ERG) doesn't understand the Transition and it's pretty clear most of the ERG doesn't understand what a backstop is.
There is a model for hard Brexit they could be selling; instead they come out with garbage and assert that voters wanted it.
The demonisation of the ERG for trying to honour the result of the referendum is laughable.
Most of these rumours are completely made up and the usual morons are lapping it up.
In what warped mindset is opposing the agreement that enables us to leave and then trying to bring down the PM mid-process, putting the whole thing at risk, "honouring the result"??
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
I would absolutely not be surprised if the ERG decide to peel off and form an independent bloc. And take the DUP with them.
There's a gap in the market where UKIP used to be - maybe hard to hold their Westminster seats but they're playing their cards right to get into the European Parliament...
From my limited knowledge of the DUP - given that I understand Northern Irish politics even less than English politics - I believe that they combine social conservatism with a more Labourite attitude to public spending. It's just the sort of positioning that might go down well in very Brexity parts of the Midlands and North. Moreover, whether or not the ERG-wing became part of the DUP, or simply sided closely with them, they'd be a group that did not campaign under the Conservative banner and could be seen as having publicly rejected it. That could be an asset to them in many parts of the country.
Now, imagine that we end up with Remain or BINO at the end of all this. We have already seen, courtesy of the SNP, how well a party armed with arguments about national sovereignty and a sense of grievance can do. What if they can manage to win ten or fifteen seats in Parliament? With their friends in Northern Ireland they'd then have over 20, easily the fourth party in the Commons - and their presence would make it even harder for either Labour or the Tories to win a General Election outright.
Anyway, I know, getting fourteen steps ahead of myself. Just throwing a thought out there.
The demonisation of the ERG for trying to honour the result of the referendum is laughable.
Most of these rumours are completely made up and the usual morons are lapping it up.
In what warped mindset is opposing the agreement that enables us to leave and then trying to bring down the PM mid-process, putting the whole thing at risk, "honouring the result"??
The agreement cannot get through parliament because it is too crap.
In what warped mindset is that enabling us to leave?
There's no "mid-process" either as the EU refuses to negotiate further. Or did you forget that part too?
Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?
Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
No-one will be stupid enough to have a second referendum William. They won't. Too hard. Not even a rigged one. It was done the minute the result came in, no matter how many grand plans it buggered up and how many powers and potentates were and are against it. There is no road back. You'd have been a lot happier over these past months had you accepted it.
Have you now accepted that your disgusting claim on here that Jo Cox's murder was a false flag operation was a horrific lie? Once you accept that, you can perhaps start lecturing others.
I do hope you find some happiness and self-love. Bitterness and hatred are exceptionally bad for your health. Never too late to turn things around.
Andrea Jenkyns saying her colleagues are saying publically they will support the Prime Minister but telling her privately that they wont. She not content to trash her own reputation she's happy to take her party down with her.
What a piece of work! I can't remember such a sleazeball MP. Ever. If Eagle campaigned for her his judgement must have been impaired.
She is the type of candidate put up in seats that parties don't expect to win.
Comments
Btw, the comments on that tweet remind me why I have never joined Twitter.
https://twitter.com/GilesWatling/status/1072837514803716098
1. The deal will not pass. They can amend it - the Benn "amendment" bins the deal completely. But the deal in the form agreed by the "no further negotiations" EU will not pass.
2. What way forward will May then bring? She has removed all other options as things she is prepared to do. You expect that Parliament will sit back and allow the PM to stand there arms crossed scowling and stamping her foot saying "shan't"?
Quite envious of all these MPs who get to vote on whether to confirm / amend their 2016 decision in light of what they've seen since. Might be a habit that catches on?
Softer than May’s deal? Quite difficult to imagine. Maybe permanent membership of the SM and FoM?
The deal is the deal. Three options stand before us, and Parliament has three months to decide.
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
I think her strategy is:
- Win tonight by as big a margin as possible, to give the mandate to keep buggering on
- Come back with some 'clarifications' from the EU on the backstop.
- Stare down Labour, using the unanswerable point she's repeatedly made: the way to guarantee that No Deal is ruled out is to back the deal that's available. Keep making this point as the clock winds down and the pressure grows.
If I'm right, it's not a bad strategy, given the awful circumstances. However, she needs to find some way of getting the DUP on side.
Dunno if it will work, but no-one else has any better ideas.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072840785773715461
Absolutely NOBODY believes May will let us No Deal, when a painless remain is only a phone call is away. May cannot surely have such a low opinion of her colleagues that she think they'd fall for that now, after everything has happened.
If Remainers force May to take it to 28th March, May will revoke A50. Everyone knows it. She knows it. Labour knows it. Tory remainers know it.
To pretend otherwise is an insult to all our intellects.
Which is not to say that she has handled it well, but what is done is done.
https://youtu.be/KDPTC-yAmgo?t=96
Labour would clearly love May to lose the confidence vote today because they would fancy their chances better against any likely replacement... but it's not happening so Jezza and McDonnell will have to try another approach.
The EU don't want to do that, but they don't want no deal either. When even Boris has a better idea than the current PM we're in a sad situation.
The essence of this is that parliament cannot for ever refuse to make a decision - or, if it does, we crash out without a deal, effectively on the votes of Labour, the LibDems, the SNP and the headbangers.
The paralysis therefore continues, the clock keeps ticking down, and Hard Brexit gets closer and closer.
Interesting notion that you have about the ERG-wing splitting off and allying themselves with the DUP, by the way. Kind of Enoch Powell-esque. On the one hand, there's no reason on Earth why they couldn't resign the Tory whip but keep the Government on life support until after they've got what they want, of course.
On the other hand, it would be a pretty drastic step, and I don't think any of the Tories want a split if they can possibly avoid it. Would risk a Corbyn landslide and, more importantly, their own jobs.
Later peeps!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUUlkpSOIcg
Pretending May's deal is the only option when it has clearly failed (and it has completely and utterly failed), whilst calling anyone who come up with alternatives loons and moonbats is idiotic.
The loons are the ones endlessly following May's suicidal course of action.
What a piece of work! I can't remember such a sleazeball MP. Ever. If Eagle campaigned for her his judgement must have been impaired.
Given that there may not be the votes for an ERG'er to get on the ballot, he might not even be the favoured candidate of the ERG and it's not guaranteed he would win with the membership.
Most of these rumours are completely made up and the usual morons are lapping it up.
There is a model for hard Brexit they could be selling; instead they come out with garbage and assert that voters wanted it.
Now, imagine that we end up with Remain or BINO at the end of all this. We have already seen, courtesy of the SNP, how well a party armed with arguments about national sovereignty and a sense of grievance can do. What if they can manage to win ten or fifteen seats in Parliament? With their friends in Northern Ireland they'd then have over 20, easily the fourth party in the Commons - and their presence would make it even harder for either Labour or the Tories to win a General Election outright.
Anyway, I know, getting fourteen steps ahead of myself. Just throwing a thought out there.
In what warped mindset is that enabling us to leave?
There's no "mid-process" either as the EU refuses to negotiate further. Or did you forget that part too?