I am sorry to say that if the Tory MPs lack any backbone tonight and bottle jettisoning May then the Party is probably electorally untouchable/winnable for at least the next 15 Years. Unfortunately I say that as a realistic proposition.
It does look like we will have 2 main party leaders both of whom have faced votes of no confidence from the own MPs. 1 will have lost and 1 will have won.
Perhaps Corbyn might reflect on his own relationship with his MPs before he jumps on the next outrage bus to Westminster
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
One of the common themes when ‘the person in the street’ is questioned is that ‘they wish they’d get on with it!’ That suggests that if MP’s on either side go on ‘messing’ about, as it will be seen, wil be electorally counter-productive.
I enjoy when you hear multiple people use the phrase which then gets expanded to different outcomes from different people. Just get on with what I want is what they mean..
Tonight Theresa will deliver another of her meaningless statements, and the drift will continue. Over christmas and the New Year the pound will continue to drop.
I am sorry to say that if the Tory MPs lack any backbone tonight and bottle jettisoning May then the Party is probably electorally untouchable/winnable for at least the next 15 Years. Unfortunately I say that as a realistic proposition.
Oh yes, they should totally throw her overboard. They'll be wondering come mid February why they didn't.
Criticises Tory MPs being called extremists... Then says colleagues are being eviscerated!? And what does he even mean with "colleagues who may wish to think that the PM doesn't hold the future for them"!?
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
There's no more wretched hive of scum and villainy in all the universe.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
Mr. Cocque, is it from your chicken smuggling days?
It was from the made up middle names on my Tory membership card that had been placed there by well meaning friends in the days when I was a party member.
I was given the fictitious middle names "Lerwick deTocqueville Grabcocque".
I still have friends who call me Grabcocque or Grabby or (usually) Cocky. Even him indoors calls me Cocky. Stupid names stick.
Parents should, sometimes, be a bit more careful when selecting names for their infants. My wife has a pair of relations who, a la the Beckhams, named their child after the place where the (ahem) significant event was thought to have place. My parents gave me a very unusual name which has sometimes been useful, sometimes not. They also insisted, for family reasons on giving a middle name starting Q. It’s very difficult to develop a flowing signature, or when initially something.
That's the stock market that is down 1000 points in the last 6 months - that's the currency which is down 17 cents on the dollar from its best level in the last year.
"down 17 cents on the dollar from its best level in the last year" - are you Dianne Abbott?
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
Theresa May seems to be driven by the 17.6 million on Brexit, particularly the non GE voters undoubtedly amongst them.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
They are guppies in the main !
Is that piece of bacon really a gammon?
It would be in a Labour election. This was definitely bacon - it was once useful but then nearly went down the plughole.
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
One of the common themes when ‘the person in the street’ is questioned is that ‘they wish they’d get on with it!’ That suggests that if MP’s on either side go on ‘messing’ about, as it will be seen, wil be electorally counter-productive.
I enjoy when you hear multiple people use the phrase which then gets expanded to different outcomes from different people. Just get on with what I want is what they mean..
Precisely. People want things to happen but it doesn't mean they want any specific thing to happen.
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
Perhaps not. But if the confident calculation of both the Labour leadership and of the majority of remainer MPs on all sides is that TM would choose a deferred or cancelled brexit over a no deal brexit then I would have to revise my opinion and say that a deferred or cancelled brexit is more likely than leaving on time. That is what betfair says to be fair. No fun in that though, agreeing with the consensus, so I'm going to stick it out a little longer. I just have this feeling that if we enter the tardis and jump to 30th March next year, we've signed the withdrawal agreement and we're out. And is TM still PM? I guess so.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
There's no more wretched hive of scum and villainy in all the universe.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
What is the chance that the ERG group will just spilt off when they lose? There is nothing left for them within the party.
None. All they have to do is pin on a blue rosette and they have jobs for life in their safe seats whilst they continue to spread their poison. Why would you jump away from that?
Tonight Theresa will deliver another of her meaningless statements, and the drift will continue. Over christmas and the New Year the pound will continue to drop.
The £ is up a cent against the Euro and nearly two cents against the dollar today. Clearly a leadership confidence vote is a positive in the eyes of the foreign exchange traders.
The market expects May to win, and her having security for a year is one less piece of uncertainty.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
Sure, but some are snakes and some devious snakes
The mystery is why they are sometimes described as a sophisticated electorate? Dishonest, self-interested, duplicitous, for sure. But not sophisticated.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
Sure, but some are snakes and some devious snakes
The mystery is why they are sometimes described as a sophisticated electorate? Dishonest, self-interested, duplicitous, for sure. But not sophisticated.
They resemble the College of Cardinals in the Fifteenth Century.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
But I don't think revokation necessarily requires any change in the executive. If the Commons votes to revoke it is inconceivable that the executive could simply ignore such an exercise of parliamentary sovereignty, just as it could not ignore the vote to publish the AGs advice last week. In the atmosphere of crisis that would form the background to such a vote, a crisis for which the government would be blamed, it would have no choice but to comply.
It does look like we will have 2 main party leaders both of whom have faced votes of no confidence from the own MPs. 1 will have lost and 1 will have won.
Perhaps Corbyn might reflect on his own relationship with his MPs before he jumps on the next outrage bus to Westminster
Yes I expect him to resign any day now. Who cares if over 313,000 party members backed him at the subsequent leadership contest!
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
Sure, but some are snakes and some devious snakes
The mystery is why they are sometimes described as a sophisticated electorate? Dishonest, self-interested, duplicitous, for sure. But not sophisticated.
They resemble the College of Cardinals in the Fifteenth Century.
It does look like we will have 2 main party leaders both of whom have faced votes of no confidence from the own MPs. 1 will have lost and 1 will have won.
Perhaps Corbyn might reflect on his own relationship with his MPs before he jumps on the next outrage bus to Westminster
Yes I expect him to resign any day now. Who cares if over 313,000 party members backed him at the subsequent leadership contest!
I said nothing about resigning. Just being a little more aware that he has his own problems sat behind him as well.
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
But I don't think revokation necessarily requires any change in the executive. If the Commons votes to revoke it is inconceivable that the executive could simply ignore such an exercise of parliamentary sovereignty, just as it could not ignore the vote to publish the AGs advice last week. In the atmosphere of crisis that would form the background to such a vote, a crisis for which the government would be blamed, it would have no choice but to comply.
Parliament can’t just revoke. If the Government doesn’t table any business, the House of Commons is stuck.
If a majority of MPs think stopping Brexit without a second referendum is the right thing, they can bring down the government and support a new one to do just that. They have always had this option.
The key thing that has changed in my view with Theresa May pulling the vote on the deal is that it shows she does not want to pivot from the deal to another position.
If she was prepared to pivot to a referendum, or whatever, then she would have held the vote, lost it and then either pivoted or waited for the Commons to tell her exactly how to pivot. Instead she delayed the vote. The purpose of delaying the vote is to use the pressure of time, and the evidence that the EU really are wedded to the backstop, to convince doubters to back the deal.
This means that anyone who wants neither the deal, or no deal, has to change the identity of the Prime Minister to an individual who is opposed to both those outcomes. Good luck with that!
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
Perhaps not. But if the confident calculation of both the Labour leadership and of the majority of remainer MPs on all sides is that TM would choose a deferred or cancelled brexit over a no deal brexit then I would have to revise my opinion and say that a deferred or cancelled brexit is more likely than leaving on time. That is what betfair says to be fair. No fun in that though, agreeing with the consensus, so I'm going to stick it out a little longer. I just have this feeling that if we enter the tardis and jump to 30th March next year, we've signed the withdrawal agreement and we're out. And is TM still PM? I guess so.
I'm struggling to say for sure where it ends up (I may also be transferring my own stubbornness) but in terms of Labour you aren't going to get big numbers without the party going for it IMO. You could pick of a few from Labour in a close run thing. Without significant numbers of no dealers backing the deal on the Tory benches suddenly I can't see Labour providing the kind of numbers needed.
I guess you have the Anti May's dealers in the Tories as holding mostly and May still needing over 100 votes from other parties for it to progress?
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
There's no more wretched hive of scum and villainy in all the universe.
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
and where would business go?
The question would be better put, where would the pragmatic soft-remain group of Tories representing it go ?
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.
Hmph.
Are you really surprised? And was she supposed to go the the Head of States meeting tomorrow not knowing if she was one? How exactly would that have been in the national interest?
I am late to this thread so I am sure countless others have commented. But Mrs May has no aspirations to be a Head of State
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
This is the Tory party !
There's no more wretched hive of scum and villainy in all the universe.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
But I don't think revokation necessarily requires any change in the executive. If the Commons votes to revoke it is inconceivable that the executive could simply ignore such an exercise of parliamentary sovereignty, just as it could not ignore the vote to publish the AGs advice last week. In the atmosphere of crisis that would form the background to such a vote, a crisis for which the government would be blamed, it would have no choice but to comply.
Has the Executive ever been compelled by a Commons motion to bring forward a piece of legislation it was opposed to and then pilot that legislation through the necessary Parliamentary procedures? I didn't think that had happened before.
I think it would be a novel evolution of Parliamentary practice if it happened that way.
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
and where would business go?
The question would be better put, where would the pragmatic soft-remain group of Tories representing it, go ?
whose question is it? Yours has nothing to do with mine
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
But I don't think revokation necessarily requires any change in the executive. If the Commons votes to revoke it is inconceivable that the executive could simply ignore such an exercise of parliamentary sovereignty, just as it could not ignore the vote to publish the AGs advice last week. In the atmosphere of crisis that would form the background to such a vote, a crisis for which the government would be blamed, it would have no choice but to comply.
Has the Executive ever been compelled by a Commons motion to bring forward a piece of legislation it was opposed to and then pilot that legislation through the necessary Parliamentary procedures? I didn't think that had happened before.
I think it would be a novel evolution of Parliamentary practice if it happened that way.
I am somewhat surprised that they haven't tried the Private Member's Bill route - I am sure they could find someone high enough on the ballot to use it for something Brexit related
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
and where would business go?
The question would be better put, where would the pragmatic soft-remain group of Tories representing it, go ?
whose question is it? Yours has nothing to do with mine
It's the same question ; the crunch point won't be business support deserting the tories, but the tories representing that support, deserting the party.
Still quite a long way below the numbers for the previous decade though.
Absolute numbers are quite misleading, as the population of Greater London has gone up by about 1 million people in a decade. We should compare murder rates to get a clearer picture.
From memory aren't there 111 declared publicly against the deal? Which makes 70 declared and 41 undeclared seem an awfully familiar statistic.
It does seem that publicly at least this vote is being taken as a proxy for support or opposition of the deal as it stands more than May herself.
Most Remainers opposed to the deal will probably support her. They hate her, but they hate the ERG even more. Anna Soubry, for example, is furious at the behaviour of the ERG, despite having done her own bit to undermine the PM.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. That is all true. To make it happen the Remainers have to win control of the Executive - which would mean forming some sort of cross-party unity government or persuading Theresa May. That's how our constitution works. I think May blocks one approach and Corbyn the other.
But I don't think revokation necessarily requires any change in the executive. If the Commons votes to revoke it is inconceivable that the executive could simply ignore such an exercise of parliamentary sovereignty, just as it could not ignore the vote to publish the AGs advice last week. In the atmosphere of crisis that would form the background to such a vote, a crisis for which the government would be blamed, it would have no choice but to comply.
Has the Executive ever been compelled by a Commons motion to bring forward a piece of legislation it was opposed to and then pilot that legislation through the necessary Parliamentary procedures? I didn't think that had happened before.
I think it would be a novel evolution of Parliamentary practice if it happened that way.
I am somewhat surprised that they haven't tried the Private Member's Bill route - I am sure they could find someone high enough on the ballot to use it for something Brexit related
Doesn't Chris Chope just yell "Object" to that one ?
I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
I would assume that if the final result is any kind of victory then she will keep plodding onward. The question, of course, is to what end?
Conservative MPs may come to bitterly regret having left May secure in her position for a year if they end up having to follow her into a General Election again.
The statements from business are more telling than the currency markets in the short term. The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
and where would business go?
The question would be better put, where would the pragmatic soft-remain group of Tories representing it, go ?
whose question is it? Yours has nothing to do with mine
It's the same question ; the crunch point won't be business support deserting the tories, but the tories representing that support, deserting the party.
it's clearly not the same question unless you're a politician
I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.
I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.
I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.
Under 200 and things look ropey for her. Let's see what sweeties she promises her backbenchers not to do the dirty.
Comments
The opinion pollsters use a sample of 1000 out of 50m voters, 1 in every 50,000.
The equivalent for 316 Conservative voters would be the opinion of 0.006 of an MP but he would need to be a cross section.
Perhaps Corbyn might reflect on his own relationship with his MPs before he jumps on the next outrage bus to Westminster
And what does he even mean with "colleagues who may wish to think that the PM doesn't hold the future for them"!?
You are Quentin White and I claim my £10.
Although I wouldn't mind their bank managing pleasing savings...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46540182
The British Chambers of Commerce and CBI, for instance, are already becoming much more shrill and less bound to the responsibilities of conservative partisanship than previously. This presages the possible split in the party if things continue.
If a majority of MPs think stopping Brexit without a second referendum is the right thing, they can bring down the government and support a new one to do just that. They have always had this option.
If she was prepared to pivot to a referendum, or whatever, then she would have held the vote, lost it and then either pivoted or waited for the Commons to tell her exactly how to pivot. Instead she delayed the vote. The purpose of delaying the vote is to use the pressure of time, and the evidence that the EU really are wedded to the backstop, to convince doubters to back the deal.
This means that anyone who wants neither the deal, or no deal, has to change the identity of the Prime Minister to an individual who is opposed to both those outcomes. Good luck with that!
I guess you have the Anti May's dealers in the Tories as holding mostly and May still needing over 100 votes from other parties for it to progress?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
204/70. 41 undeclared.
I think it would be a novel evolution of Parliamentary practice if it happened that way.
Either way I doubt May will make it to the 12 month's from today she's supposedly safe for if she does win.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1072900477233303553
In a country where doing 30 past a school can get you 15 to life and he gets 3 years?
It does seem that publicly at least this vote is being taken as a proxy for support or opposition of the deal as it stands more than May herself.
I wonder how long the comb-over, marmalade monster will get?
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
I would assume that if the final result is any kind of victory then she will keep plodding onward. The question, of course, is to what end?
Conservative MPs may come to bitterly regret having left May secure in her position for a year if they end up having to follow her into a General Election again.
odds on: promises to retire after Brexit
2s: free owl for every backbencher
8s: Michael Gove to be next pope
100s: something has changed