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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    First first in ages?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second :(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Sandpit said:

    First first in ages?

    Stony silence
  • Fourth, as in the number of bottles of wine Junker has already got through today.
  • May and Corbyn, the Millwall of politicians.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Fourth, as in the number of bottles of wine Junker has already got through today.

    I thought he was unusually cogent today.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Brexit, it seems, is the great leveller. It destroys everyone it touches.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2018
    RobD said:

    Fourth, as in the number of bottles of wine Junker has already got through today.

    I thought he was unusually cogent today.
    You obviously missed the video of him erhh embracing a lady earlier today. Anybody else did that and they would be out of a job for harassment for the day was out.
  • Mr. Cocque, life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited December 2018

    RobD said:

    Fourth, as in the number of bottles of wine Junker has already got through today.

    I thought he was unusually cogent today.
    You obviously missed the video of him erhh embracing a lady earlier today.
    No, I hadn't... :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    As I was saying earlier, across this calendar year, Labour as a party and Corbyn as a leader have fallen furthest in the polls. As supposedly the official opposition they haven't benefited an iota from the government's risible performance across the year, which is truly remarkable.
  • Fourth, as in the number of bottles of wine Junker has already got through today.

    Number of threads pb has got through today?
  • His ratings were quite dire in the run up to the 2017 general election but then he came within a gnat's fart of becoming Prime Minister.

    If Ruthy Davidson wasn't so awesome we'd be having PM Jezza right now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    These charts are utterly irrelevant. They cover the three years before a GE.
    There will not be an election till 2022. And May will not fight it.
    We know this, as May has told us this. She would not be wrong or lying, would she?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dixiedean said:

    These charts are utterly irrelevant. They cover the three years before a GE.
    There will not be an election till 2022. And May will not fight it.
    We know this, as May has told us this. She would not be wrong or lying, would she?

    Events, dear boy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Theresa May’s Allies Are Pushing For A Second Referendum To Crush A Brexiteer “Suicide Squad”

    The PM comes home from Brussels to find hardcore Brexiteers threatening to bring down her government, cabinet ministers being urged to oust her, and members of her top team preparing for a “people’s vote”.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-allies-second-referendum-brexiteer-suicide

    This is starting to feel a bit like 1990 when Mrs "where's the microphone?" Thatcher won her election then ran straight into a whole load of trouble...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Mr. Cocque, life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.

    Nevertheless it remains preferable to the alternative.
  • RobD said:

    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o

    His best net rating is minus 1 was in July 2017.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?
  • RobD said:

    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o

    His best net rating is minus 1 was in July 2017.
    If you only saw twitter you would think his ratings were +100%
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Cocque, life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.

    Nevertheless it remains preferable to the alternative.
    Life is hard
    And so am I
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o

    His best net rating is minus 1 was in July 2017.
    The absolute boy.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o

    His best net rating is minus 1 was in July 2017.
    If you only saw twitter you would think his ratings were +100%
    Only +100?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Has Corbs never had positive net ratings? :o

    His best net rating is minus 1 was in July 2017.
    If you only saw twitter you would think his ratings were +100%
    Only +100?
    Well, the bastard Tories knock it down from +110 ;-)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018
    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    Opinion has ebbed and flowed in favour and against the EU ever since forever. One issue with a referendum coming so soon after the last one occurs when opinion inevitably turns against the EU again...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    It's more that people are worried that the ERG are actually mad enough to do it.

    A reasonable assumption.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    If the Tory party had any sense they would have lost the whip long ago. Trouble is, so many of their members sitting under their blankets looking out to sea think these people are the guardians of the true flame.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    It's Minority Report come true.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Obviously not. They have a Chief Whip who insisted they would win the MV, when all possible evidence and outside observers saw only a big defeat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    It's more that people are worried that the ERG are actually mad enough to do it.

    A reasonable assumption.
    I couldn't see Bill Cash or John Redwood doing it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Dead Ringers: Mrs May "be assured that I won't be fighting the next election. So that'll be a lot like the last election..."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    If the Tory party had any sense they would have lost the whip long ago. Trouble is, so many of their members sitting under their blankets looking out to sea think these people are the guardians of the true flame.
    The idea is that if the the whole ERG vote for a VONC en masse, it's simply too many people to withdraw the whip from at once. It would mark the de facto fracture of the conservative party in Parliament into two.

    Are the ERG mad enough to kamikaze their own government? Of *course* they are.

    And that's why people are worried.
  • dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Obviously not. They have a Chief Whip who insisted they would win the MV, when all possible evidence and outside observers saw only a big defeat.
    To be fair he didn't say when they would win the vote ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Obviously not. They have a Chief Whip who insisted they would win the MV, when all possible evidence and outside observers saw only a big defeat.
    But can you have the whip withdrawn for reports suggesting you are going to vote a specific way?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Ollie Letwin in Speedos floating in a paddling pool filled with semi skimmed milk, jumper cables on his head attached to a Betamax player.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Ollie Letwin in Speedos floating in a paddling pool filled with semi skimmed milk, jumper cables on his head attached to a Betamax player.
    Na, that’s just how the manifesto is created.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    If the Tory party had any sense they would have lost the whip long ago. Trouble is, so many of their members sitting under their blankets looking out to sea think these people are the guardians of the true flame.
    That's because they are. Not sure whether you're a supporter or not, but if Corbyn is too left wing and should be replaced, and if the backwoods Tories are too right wing and should be ostracised, we'd have three soft left pro EU pro state pro status quo parties. Why would a democracy want or need that?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Ollie Letwin in Speedos floating in a paddling pool filled with semi skimmed milk, jumper cables on his head attached to a Betamax player.
    Thank God for speedos and the relative opacity of milk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    If the Tory party had any sense they would have lost the whip long ago. Trouble is, so many of their members sitting under their blankets looking out to sea think these people are the guardians of the true flame.
    That's because they are. Not sure whether you're a supporter or not, but if Corbyn is too left wing and should be replaced, and if the backwoods Tories are too right wing and should be ostracised, we'd have three soft left pro EU pro state pro status quo parties. Why would a democracy want or need that?
    That seems quite an attractive prospect right now, to be honest.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    To steal from Pratchett a little;

    You can't go around criticising Corbyn, what would the guild of complete-asses have to say!

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
  • Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    I don't think he can rely on getting zero scrutiny next time.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    CCHQ has a pre-cognition department? :p
    Ollie Letwin in Speedos floating in a paddling pool filled with semi skimmed milk, jumper cables on his head attached to a Betamax player.
    Thank God for speedos and the relative opacity of milk.
    A line to be admired, if only for the impossibility of working back! Everyone's guessing Letwin, but few would go Betamax!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    Hmm. Nicola or Jeremy or Theresa? As a resident of England I'd prefer Nicola! At least she SEEMS honest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
    Yes, the next election hangs on which of the major parties loses most votes to the minor parties. Right now, I'd say the Tories were making the best shot at this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    Wrong on both points.

    May beat Corbyn still last time and the only alternative who gets more people saying they will vote Tory under them than May is Boris. Almost all the others poll worse than May, especially Hunt and Gove
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
    Yes, the next election hangs on which of the major parties loses most votes to the minor parties. Right now, I'd say the Tories were making the best shot at this.
    Yup, can't see the Staying Tories in Witham voting for Patel. If they look like doing so I'm going to sit outside a polling station with a load of clothes pegs for nose-holding.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
    Tories lost seats to Labour in both Wales and England. May only kept her job thanks to a backlash against the SNP in Scotland.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    May is "played one, won one" in this. Apart from the Labour leadership Corbyn has never won a vote, or passed a test in his life. Perhaps he can stump up 'cycling proficiency', but I guess not.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited December 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    The problem is these people who are obsessed with Europe are fundamentalists.

    They use Euroscepticism as the bench mark of everything. I once remonstrated to a Tory MEP in the run up to the 2010 GE that he and his Eurosceptic colleagues continually reiterating their European crusade made it less likely that we could affect a change of Government to rejuvenate the economy. The MEP, who later defected to UKIP simply thought the Lisbon treaty and our role in Europe was of paramount importance and the appalling performance of the economy at that time, which had sunk me financially and career wise was of less importance.

    Brexit politicians are similar to Islamic fundamentalists, they are totally idealistic in their outlook.
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    Wrong on both points.

    May beat Corbyn still last time and the only alternative who gets more people saying they will vote Tory under them than May is Boris. Almost all the others poll worse than May, especially Hunt and Gove
    Ah yes, those polls. You have your head in the sand about her abject campaigning which cost her a 20% poll lead last time. With the parties level pegging despite Labour’s problems with antisemitism and misogyny. It will only be worse this time after how she handled Brexit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
    I’m sure if the numbers weren’t so tight they’d have been happy to see Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen go to the LDs, and Dominic Grieve would probably have been suspended for his antics last week in conniving with the Speaker to try and engineer a direct contravention of the manifesto on which he was elected.

    But that’s not what you meant, is it?
  • Omnium said:

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    May is "played one, won one" in this. Apart from the Labour leadership Corbyn has never won a vote, or passed a test in his life. Perhaps he can stump up 'cycling proficiency', but I guess not.
    He took seats from the Tories in England and Wales last time and from the SNP in Scotland. It’s delusional to think May can beat him
  • If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Donny43 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    I don't think he can rely on getting zero scrutiny next time.
    Although, he seems to be getting zero scrutiny through the entire Brexit process too.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
    Yes, the next election hangs on which of the major parties loses most votes to the minor parties. Right now, I'd say the Tories were making the best shot at this.
    It all depends on the type of voters they lose and the distribution of these voters, it may well be possible for Tories and Labour to lose voters and still get a majority. 2005 and 2015 showed that 35% vote or so is no barrier to winning a majority if the ground game is optimally played.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    As I mentioned above, you may feel WTO is the worst proposal economically, but you can't really call it armageddon given that if it's a ref option there will be as much time to prepare for it and make all tge other arrangements as was deemed necessary. WTO following a 4 or 5 year exit process isn't scary at all, and is perhaps the most cautious approach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
    I’m sure if the numbers weren’t so tight they’d have been happy to see Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen go to the LDs, and Dominic Grieve would probably have been suspended for his antics last week in conniving with the Speaker to try and engineer a direct contravention of the manifesto on which he was elected.

    But that’s not what you meant, is it?
    None of the MPs you name are promising not to support the government and their party in any votes, including confidence ones, until the PM resigns. Unless I missed something?
  • IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    As I mentioned above, you may feel WTO is the worst proposal economically, but you can't really call it armageddon given that if it's a ref option there will be as much time to prepare for it and make all tge other arrangements as was deemed necessary. WTO following a 4 or 5 year exit process isn't scary at all, and is perhaps the most cautious approach.
    Ooh, a flash of rationality from an arch leaver. So why aren't your fellow fanatics recognising that the government's deal *could* be the first step towards that ultimate destination?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
  • If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.


    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    As I mentioned above, you may feel WTO is the worst proposal economically, but you can't really call it armageddon given that if it's a ref option there will be as much time to prepare for it and make all tge other arrangements as was deemed necessary. WTO following a 4 or 5 year exit process isn't scary at all, and is perhaps the most cautious approach.
    Maybe but the stupid thing is it needs the WDA with extension to 2022 if necessary but that is not pure enough for the ultras.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    FPT:

    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.

    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    IanB2 said:



    Ooh, a flash of rationality from an arch leaver. So why aren't your fellow fanatics recognising that the government's deal *could* be the first step towards that ultimate destination?

    I'm not really sure what you mean.

    My position has always been quite clear. I want the UK to be independent of the governance of the EU, and the jurisdiction of its courts. I don't want the UK to be subject to wide-ranging backroom trade deals that have the potential to be bad for consumers/taxpayers, either entered into on our own behalf, or as part of the EU. I do not believe that preferential trade deals are necessary for economic success, or can prevent economic failure. Long term success can only come from people and businesses providing goods and services that can either be successfully exported or displace imported goods and services - on their own merit.

    As such, of course I support WTO Brexit. It is wise to leave, find our feet, and enter into any trade deals with the EU or anyone else only with a great deal of circumspection. Doing so now is doing so on the basis of panic, and is likely to result in a poor outcome.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    Oh it does, which is why a 2nd ref is foolish. A remain-vs-deal referendum would possess only a wafer-thin veneer of democratic legitimacy, especially if/when hard Brexiteers start to publicly boycott it.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    As I mentioned above, you may feel WTO is the worst proposal economically, but you can't really call it armageddon given that if it's a ref option there will be as much time to prepare for it and make all tge other arrangements as was deemed necessary. WTO following a 4 or 5 year exit process isn't scary at all, and is perhaps the most cautious approach.
    Ooh, a flash of rationality from an arch leaver. So why aren't your fellow fanatics recognising that the government's deal *could* be the first step towards that ultimate destination?
    Because the "ultimate destination" is incompatible with the backstop, which we now know beyond doubt is intended to be permanent?
  • RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is the least worst option and would see a rebound in confidence and investment. Also 63% in NI ex DUP back it as does business across the UK. It is Brexit and deals with free movement and has other benefits and I am happy to be close to the EU post Brexit and am not hung up over trade deals and reneging on our financial commitments. It also gives certainty to EU citizens here and ours in the EU

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!

  • If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.

    Serious question though. Whilst I accept there are a lot of politicians on all sides playing games to further their own political careers, what is the point of being in politics if not to advance beliefs and positions that you genuinely believe will improve people's lives in the long run? I don't believe it applies to all of them but if those ERGers and those fanatical Pro-EU advocates each do believe that theirs is the best way to improve things for the country, even at the cost of their party, then surely there should be respect for that position even if you don't agree with them.

    I fundamentally disagree with the founders of the EU - people like Monnet or Schuman - who advocated a United States of Europe and helped to found the EEC to achieve that aim. But I also have huge admiration for them because they believed they were acting in the best interests of the people and were willing to put all their energies into pursuing their dream.

    Motivations and beliefs matter. It is sad that these days some people seem to judge politicians on the basis of whether they are doing what is right for their party rather than what is right for the people (in their eyes)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:



    Ooh, a flash of rationality from an arch leaver. So why aren't your fellow fanatics recognising that the government's deal *could* be the first step towards that ultimate destination?

    I'm not really sure what you mean.

    My position has always been quite clear. I want the UK to be independent of the governance of the EU, and the jurisdiction of its courts. I don't want the UK to be subject to wide-ranging backroom trade deals that have the potential to be bad for consumers/taxpayers, either entered into on our own behalf, or as part of the EU. I do not believe that preferential trade deals are necessary for economic success, or can prevent economic failure. Long term success can only come from people and businesses providing goods and services that can either be successfully exported or displace imported goods and services - on their own merit.

    As such, of course I support WTO Brexit. It is wise to leave, find our feet, and enter into any trade deals with the EU or anyone else only with a great deal of circumspection. Doing so now is doing so on the basis of panic, and is likely to result in a poor outcome.

    I don't accept that your destination is a good one, but if if we did want to go there, your earlier post appeared to recognise that it needs to be done carefully and in stages. Going from full EU on a Sunday to cold turkey WTO on the following Monday would be lunatic.

    The only reason the ERG cling to the hope that it can be done instantly through creative destruction is because they don't have the confidence to believe they can convince the public to go with them on the longer journey. Yet the drastic course they are advocating will - rightly - destroy their credibility and reputations for a generation, whether it comes to pass or not.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    Maybe they want to walk out and pursue purity with Farage and the other ex UKIP!

    It would not surprise me that they don't support the Government. I think a Tory MP Rupert Allison (Known as Nigel West the writer) in the 1990's failed to support the Government in a confidence vote in 1993 IIRC. He actually stood in 1997 but was defeated. The Major Government of course was not defeated, if it had of fallen obviously it would be seen as an impediment to his standing under Conservative colours.


    If the current Government fell I would expect those who did not support it to find themselves excluded by the party, which of course could mean a job for life and chance at Ministerial work being curtailed.
  • Maybe but the stupid thing is it needs the WDA with extension to 2022 if necessary but that is not pure enough for the ultras.

    Because of the backstop. Take that out and it would be.

    The backstop is wrong as a matter of principle to a number of people. That doesn't make them crazy.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in
    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!
    Come on your are hyperboling a little there. The ERG traditional right wing in the Conservative Party tradition of right wing. They want to leave the EU at any and all costs, that obsession is what separates them from the "what is right is what works" tradition of the Conservatives.

    They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2018
    Still think replacing the bespoke backstop with rejoining is the best compromise.

    We leave on May's terms, we see if we can create a deal. If we fail, we go back in. If we succeed, off we go.

    Simple. 2016 satisfied. Something for all of us to hope for.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    I don't think he'll walk it by any stretch of the imagination. More like scrape together a rainbow coalition.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum


    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    Why have Soubry, Greive, Morgan, Allen, et al not been kicked out, they have voted against the Govt multiple times?
  • AndyJS said:

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    I don't think he'll walk it by any stretch of the imagination. More like scrape together a rainbow coalition.
    I would hope it would not be Boris. He strikes me as having all the worst attributes of being self serving and ambitious without the competence or work ethic to actually achieve anything other than through manipulation or accident. He has been poor in ministerial positions. He would be disastrous in the top job.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG

    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    If they actually vote against the government in a vote of confidence then they’ll be kicked out of the party. They’re not going to be kicked out for posturing as backbench MPs.
This discussion has been closed.