Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been

2

Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
  • AndyJS said:

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    I don't think he'll walk it by any stretch of the imagination. More like scrape together a rainbow coalition.
    Depends who he’s up against. He’ll walk it against May. He started 20% behind in the polls last time and ended up taking seats. If May resigns, the Tories have a slim chance depending on who they pick - and provided they don’t split. A split seems very likely at the moment.
  • AndyJS said:

    Corbyn will walk an election against May and if the election is called by virtue of a VNOC, the Tories will be saddled with her. Tories fluffed their opportunity to get rid of her and she clearly doesn’t want to go. Anyone who calls a snap election, loses a 20% lead in the polls and loses her majority because they are such awful campaigners and produce a manifesto that is excruciatingly awful is not not going to stop Corbyn this time, not against the backdrop of a sell out Brexit that she can’t get through Parliament, numerous humiliations at the hands of the EU and total absence of a domestic policy agenda.

    The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).

    I don't think he'll walk it by any stretch of the imagination. More like scrape together a rainbow coalition.
    Depends who he’s up against. He’ll walk it against May. He started 20% behind in the polls last time and ended up taking seats. If May resigns, the Tories have a slim chance depending on who they pick - and provided they don’t split. A split seems very likely at the moment.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857/photo/1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain


    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    Is CCHQ loyal to May, or to Conservative 'principles"?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    Na, it at least gets us on the way out.
  • notme said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in
    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!
    Come on your are hyperboling a little there. The ERG traditional right wing in the Conservative Party tradition of right wing. They want to leave the EU at any and all costs, that obsession is what separates them from the "what is right is what works" tradition of the Conservatives.

    They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
    A group talking of voting against the party in a vnoc is unacceptable
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If we have a people's vote, and no deal is an option, it won't be panic no deal anymore, it will be take as long as you like no deal. Are people's vote fans ok with that?

    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.
    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum


    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    Why have Soubry, Greive, Morgan, Allen, et al not been kicked out, they have voted against the Govt multiple times?
    On that basis the anti-EU nutjobs would be long gone...
  • IanB2 said:


    On that basis the anti-EU nutjobs would be long gone...

    So you think the pro-EU nutjobs should be allowed to defy their party but the anti-EU nutjobs should be expelled for it. What about the just plain old fashioned nutjobs like Corbyn who made a career out of defying his party?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    That is very nice of you and I would if I could. Coming from a business background the WDA is

    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in
    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!
    Come on your are hyperboling a little there. The ERG traditional right wing in the Conservative Party tradition of right wing. They want to leave the EU at any and all costs, that obsession is what separates them from the "what is right is what works" tradition of the Conservatives.

    They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
    A group talking of voting against the party in a vnoc is unacceptable
    Absolutely. But that doesnt justify the tag.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    In the short term, it is worse than remaining.

    However it solves nothing, especially in the medium- and long-terms. The Eurosceptics will feel that they've been ignored - and they will have been - and the consequences of that for politics and society could be highly non-optimal.

    Brexit needs a resolution, a result where the majority can dust our hands and say: "Thank fu*k that's over, let's get on with the important things." Then, when the stinking winnets of UKIP and the ERG start screeching, we can say: "It's over and done with. Shut up."

    Just remaining - either without a referendum, or with a referendum which does not have options that cover most of the scenarios - will not be a settled resolution. It will answer nothing.
  • FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    Given that you feel any sort of Brexit is worse than Remaining that is hardly surprising news.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Is it just me or is Junker a total cock?

    https://youtu.be/8g6BdN-sH7g
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    IanB2 said:


    On that basis the anti-EU nutjobs would be long gone...

    So you think the pro-EU nutjobs should be allowed to defy their party but the anti-EU nutjobs should be expelled for it. What about the just plain old fashioned nutjobs like Corbyn who made a career out of defying his party?
    Personally I welcome MPs, from whatever party, who think for themselves and don't always do what they are told. But I don't see how any party could put up with the (possibly) threatened "strike" by the ERGers? Nor does it make any sense for leavers to be calling out Soubry et al, when the leavers themselves have the longest track record of disloyalty.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited December 2018
    As I said on the last thread, the current YouGov shows remarkable unpopularity for everyone and everything - May, Corbyn and every political party. Labour scrapes to the top with 30% saying they like them.

    If that persists to the election, I think that differential turnout will decide it - an awful lot of people will jusat roll their eyes and stay at home. It's there that Corbyn has an edge, because around 25% of the electorate are really enthusiastic about him. It's quite difficult to find people who think May is really good - plenty of sympathy, but very little actual enthusiastic support.
  • I am an official moderate conservative

    I have received a christmas card from a conservative brexiteer mp and one from a conservative remainer mp, and both are appreciated
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    In the short term, it is worse than remaining.

    However it solves nothing, especially in the medium- and long-terms. The Eurosceptics will feel that they've been ignored - and they will have been - and the consequences of that for politics and society could be highly non-optimal.

    Brexit needs a resolution, a result where the majority can dust our hands and say: "Thank fu*k that's over, let's get on with the important things." Then, when the stinking winnets of UKIP and the ERG start screeching, we can say: "It's over and done with. Shut up."

    Just remaining - either without a referendum, or with a referendum which does not have options that cover most of the scenarios - will not be a settled resolution. It will answer nothing.
    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    As I keep saying, it's not us you have to convince. There's a triple lock on a referendum question.

    1) Approved by Parliament
    2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
    3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council

    "No Deal" fails all three.

    I'm not trying to convince anyone, I thought the consensus of opinion was that no deal had to be included for the ref to appear legitimate. If it is envisaged as simply a my deal or remain referendum then imo it's even less likely to happen.
    .

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.


    The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.

    Remain betrays the referendum


    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    If the Fundamentalists take over the Conservative Party it will split, no question about it.

    I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.

    Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
    If they commit - as is being rumoured - to not supporting the government in any forthcoming votes including confidence ones - then I don't see how the party could possibly not throw them out?
    Why have Soubry, Greive, Morgan, Allen, et al not been kicked out, they have voted against the Govt multiple times?
    On that basis the anti-EU nutjobs would be long gone...
    Voting against the party in normal votes has never been a problem - see, e.g., J Corbyn.
  • FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    In the short term, it is worse than remaining.

    However it solves nothing, especially in the medium- and long-terms. The Eurosceptics will feel that they've been ignored - and they will have been - and the consequences of that for politics and society could be highly non-optimal.

    Brexit needs a resolution, a result where the majority can dust our hands and say: "Thank fu*k that's over, let's get on with the important things." Then, when the stinking winnets of UKIP and the ERG start screeching, we can say: "It's over and done with. Shut up."

    Just remaining - either without a referendum, or with a referendum which does not have options that cover most of the scenarios - will not be a settled resolution. It will answer nothing.
    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    As I said on the last thread, the current YouGov shows remarkable unpopularity for everyone and everything - May, Corbyn and every political party. Labour scrapes to the top with 30% saying they like them.

    If that persists to the election, I think that differential turnout will decide it - an awful lot of people will jusat roll their eyes and stay at home. It's there that Corbyn has an edge, because around 25% of the electorate are really enthusiastic about him. It's quite difficult to find people who think May is really good - plenty of sympathy, but very little actual enthusiastic support.

    This is ultimately of no use if a similar proportion of the electorate finds him so repellent that they turn out to veto him.

    After what happened in 2017, I reckon there's almost nothing about the next election that can be safely assumed (except that the SNP will do well again,) and we may well be as clueless about the outcome at 9:59pm on election night as we are right now.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    In the short term, it is worse than remaining.

    However it solves nothing, especially in the medium- and long-terms. The Eurosceptics will feel that they've been ignored - and they will have been - and the consequences of that for politics and society could be highly non-optimal.

    Brexit needs a resolution, a result where the majority can dust our hands and say: "Thank fu*k that's over, let's get on with the important things." Then, when the stinking winnets of UKIP and the ERG start screeching, we can say: "It's over and done with. Shut up."

    Just remaining - either without a referendum, or with a referendum which does not have options that cover most of the scenarios - will not be a settled resolution. It will answer nothing.
    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.
    Tough. We wont be entering any time soon unless they offer a deal substantially better then the pisspoor one we currently have.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    On that basis the anti-EU nutjobs would be long gone...

    So you think the pro-EU nutjobs should be allowed to defy their party but the anti-EU nutjobs should be expelled for it. What about the just plain old fashioned nutjobs like Corbyn who made a career out of defying his party?
    Personally I welcome MPs, from whatever party, who think for themselves and don't always do what they are told. But I don't see how any party could put up with the (possibly) threatened "strike" by the ERGers? Nor does it make any sense for leavers to be calling out Soubry et al, when the leavers themselves have the longest track record of disloyalty.
    But it was the ERG mob who were being portrayed as being the ones who should be expelled for voting against the party. I was just agreeing that Soubry et al are just as guilty.

    Edit: For the record as I have said before, I don't think anyone should be expelled from any party for voting with their conscience. Indeed I object to the whole principle of MPs being whipped to follow a specific party line.
  • But confused...just seen Cohen interview and he open with he has his freedom. I thought he got sent down for 3 years? Or was it all suspended?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    notme said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    .

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in
    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!
    Come on your are hyperboling a little there. The ERG traditional right wing in the Conservative Party tradition of right wing. They want to leave the EU at any and all costs, that obsession is what separates them from the "what is right is what works" tradition of the Conservatives.

    They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
    A group talking of voting against the party in a vnoc is unacceptable
    Absolutely. And it rather proves that they were never Conservatives in the first place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.

    I think that's a fallacy - or at least unproven. One of the problems remain faced in the referendum is that the Europhobes placed all the country's ills at its knees: "It's not our fault, it's the EU's fault!"

    That's powerful, and as those young people grow older, it may be a powerful recruiting sergeant for europhobia. It was made worse by politicians who found it was convenient to blame problems on the EU rather than accept blame themselves. It'll be even worse if we remain without a referendum.

    And one other thing: remain could have won the referendum if only the activists had been half as active as leavers were. I was one of the few people on here who made a positive argument about the EU (in a very small area), and when hordes of stupid leavers tried to trash my argument without even reading it, I got fuck-all support from the remainers on here.

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
  • notme said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    As I keep sayinge.

    I'm not trying to convince

    Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
    I nominate Big G.
    .

    Remain betrays the referendum

    So all in all Deal for me but if not remain

    Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in
    And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
    Good on you for at least considering it!

    It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
    If ERG take over my party would I be welcomed in the Lib Dems do you think
    Judging from your posts here, I'd say unreservedly.
    It may come to pass if the ultras have anything to do with it
    Agent G: your mission, if you choose to accept it..... :D
    I never thought I would see the day my party were under threat from an ultra right wing group and they do not represent me at all. I hope TM can navigate the party through this crisis but if ERG take over I may offer myself to the Lib Dems and as I am only a few months older than Vince, I think, even then, I could do a better job of leading them to electoral success !!!!!!!
    Come on your are hyperboling a little there. The ERG traditional right wing in the Conservative Party tradition of right wing. They want to leave the EU at any and all costs, that obsession is what separates them from the "what is right is what works" tradition of the Conservatives.

    They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
    A group talking of voting against the party in a vnoc is unacceptable
    Absolutely. And it rather proves that they were never Conservatives in the first place.
    Nothing much Conservative or conservative about May.
  • Jonathan said:

    Still think replacing the bespoke backstop with rejoining is the best compromise.

    We leave on May's terms, we see if we can create a deal. If we fail, we go back in. If we succeed, off we go.

    Simple. 2016 satisfied. Something for all of us to hope for.

    If you think of the backstop as a form of insurance then that would make Remainers the sort of people who burn their own business down to collect the insurance payout.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.

    A point that the Do Not Leave campaign never grasped.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.

    I think that's a fallacy - or at least unproven. One of the problems remain faced in the referendum is that the Europhobes placed all the country's ills at its knees: "It's not our fault, it's the EU's fault!"

    That's powerful, and as those young people grow older, it may be a powerful recruiting sergeant for europhobia. It was made worse by politicians who found it was convenient to blame problems on the EU rather than accept blame themselves. It'll be even worse if we remain without a referendum.

    And one other thing: remain could have won the referendum if only the activists had been half as active as leavers were. I was one of the few people on here who made a positive argument about the EU (in a very small area), and when hordes of stupid leavers tried to trash my argument without even reading it, I got fuck-all support from the remainers on here.

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
    There are some really positive aspects to the EU, and positive ways that we have influenced them and theyve influenced us.

    I was a reluctant leaver. If I had known that we were going to be leaving the single market i would have not voted to leave. However, if there was a second referendum I would be voting 100% leave and if parliament decided to unilaterally revoke article 50 I would move my protests out of the democratic process.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Maybe but the stupid thing is it needs the WDA with extension to 2022 if necessary but that is not pure enough for the ultras.

    Because of the backstop. Take that out and it would be.

    The backstop is wrong as a matter of principle to a number of people. That doesn't make them crazy.
    Agreed I am fairly pro the deal - it’s pragmatic - but the backstop is wrong
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    edited December 2018
    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Jonathan said:

    Still think replacing the bespoke backstop with rejoining is the best compromise.

    We leave on May's terms, we see if we can create a deal. If we fail, we go back in. If we succeed, off we go.

    Simple. 2016 satisfied. Something for all of us to hope for.

    Creates a powerful incentive for a deal to fail on the EU side
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    If the Tory party had any sense they would have lost the whip long ago. Trouble is, so many of their members sitting under their blankets looking out to sea think these people are the guardians of the true flame.
    That's because they are. Not sure whether you're a supporter or not, but if Corbyn is too left wing and should be replaced, and if the backwoods Tories are too right wing and should be ostracised, we'd have three soft left pro EU pro state pro status quo parties. Why would a democracy want or need that?
    Sounds great to me. At the very least, unalloyed cranks like you, who think Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag, would hate it, which would be a massive plus point.
  • Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    Leave Sunil alone, ya great big bully.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    Riot? We'll leave that to the proles. You can destroy institutions and values in much better ways.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,062
    edited December 2018
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    I think rioting is not likely, but I also think there is risk of very significant social discontent if we Leave without a #peoplesvote with no Deal. There is reasonable evidence that the country is opposed to that Brexit, and there would be a much stronger Rejoin campaign.

    If Brexiteers want it to stick rather than become a Brexit hokey-cokey, then they should support a referendum.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    I would be delighted to see Kendo Clarke do exactly that. As you say, a fitting climax to a great career.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    I don't think it's their only justification, and it's a stupid thing to say - especially from people who screeched about 'Project Fear'. Except in their case, it comes across not as a projection or prediction, but a promise.

    The people voted to leave, and the referendum did not come out of a vacuum - people had been hating or mistrusting the EU for years. It's why a referendum was required, and why one would have happened eventually. Europhobia is a sickness afflicting the country.

    Personally I wish the whole sordid mess would go away. It's shown Britain in a terrible light, and makes us all a bit grubbier. But I cannot wish it away, and therefore we need to find the best way out of the mire that won't end up with us falling, Benny Hill-style straight back in.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited December 2018
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
    I’m sure if the numbers weren’t so tight they’d have been happy to see Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen go to the LDs, and Dominic Grieve would probably have been suspended for his antics last week in conniving with the Speaker to try and engineer a direct contravention of the manifesto on which he was elected.

    But that’s not what you meant, is it?
    There’s only one faction which has acted like the enemy within and appears to actively work against the government. It isn’t the ones you’ve named (or the other hate figures that the misogynists here seem terribly excited about). It’s the balding, dim men in grey suits.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Westminster Bridge was blocked by a bizarre "yellow vest" protest today.

    A live stream, hosted on a Facebook page titled Fighting for Justice, showed yellow vest-wearing activists blocking the bridge for about 20 minutes. They chanted "Brexit now" before they were moved on by police."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/westminster-bridge-blocked-by-bizarre-yellow-vest-protest-a4017751.html
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    FPT:


    Tusk says the January summit May wants probably won't happen.

    `‘we are ready to reconfirm our assurances and good will and good faith when it comes to the backstop - I have no mandate to organise any further negotiations`

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073605119533551621

    That would appear to be that.

    Indeed. I agree with Tusk. There appears to be nothing further to talk about. Mrs May needs to stay here and sort out her Brexit.
    Interested to get your thoughts. As a vocal critic of May's handling of Brexit but also the ERG, do you think we should have spent the last two years (and should now spend what time is available) in preparing for no deal, not as a desirable outcome, but as a real risk?
    Yes.

    It is the default position. The risk is very real.
    Thanks. It seems to be what most of us except very strong supporters of May feel.
    I do not support Mrs May's Deal. It is worse than Remaining IMO.
    In the short term, it is worse than remaining.

    However it solves nothing, especially in the medium- and long-terms. The Eurosceptics will feel that they've been ignored - and they will have been - and the consequences of that for politics and society could be highly non-optimal.

    Brexit needs a resolution, a result where the majority can dust our hands and say: "Thank fu*k that's over, let's get on with the important things." Then, when the stinking winnets of UKIP and the ERG start screeching, we can say: "It's over and done with. Shut up."

    Just remaining - either without a referendum, or with a referendum which does not have options that cover most of the scenarios - will not be a settled resolution. It will answer nothing.
    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.
    You'd expect that to be the case, but when I was young I was very enthusiastic about the EU project. Yet over the years, somehow it just came to feel a wrong fit for the UK.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.

    A point that the Do Not Leave campaign never grasped.
    Very true. It seemed to me that the contrast with 1975 was strong. There was a strong IN campaign then; I clearly remember leafletting, stewarding at public meetings and so on. In fact, on Referendum Day I spent about 8 hours driving the Liberals Loudspeaker Van....my wife's mini with a speaker strapped to the roof rack,...... with a plummy-voiced prominent local Conservative urging people to vote.
    I saw nothing like that this time. I got the impression that the leaders of Remain thought no-one would be daft enough to vote for Johnson and Farage's lies.
    And I went looking for campaigners locally.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Donny43 said:

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.

    A point that the Do Not Leave campaign never grasped.
    Yep. As I've said on here many times. To be fair, I think leavers in government did - it was just the activists who failed.

    A friend of mine is so pro-EU that she seems like a lovely, cuddly anti-Farage particle, and if they were ever to meet there would be such an explosion of energy as to destroy half of London. But she did nothing during the referendum campaign, and now bitches about it whenever we speak. But she's still not doing anything aside from whinge.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    If I had a pound every time a leaver on here made ominous but vague threats of violence, I'd be able to buy a rather fetching hat.

    They do not seem to grasp that a phalanx of huffing Express readers on mobility scooters isn't actually a terrifying threat.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    I don't think it's their only justification, and it's a stupid thing to say - especially from people who screeched about 'Project Fear'. Except in their case, it comes across not as a projection or prediction, but a promise.

    The people voted to leave, and the referendum did not come out of a vacuum - people had been hating or mistrusting the EU for years. It's why a referendum was required, and why one would have happened eventually. Europhobia is a sickness afflicting the country.

    Personally I wish the whole sordid mess would go away. It's shown Britain in a terrible light, and makes us all a bit grubbier. But I cannot wish it away, and therefore we need to find the best way out of the mire that won't end up with us falling, Benny Hill-style straight back in.
    Leavers have all but given up pretending anything good will come out of Brexit and they never articulated specific real advantages. We're just left with wew must go ahead, otherwise there will be social disorder. I don't think it's stupid to make that observation, or to feel dissatisfied by it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717

    Donny43 said:

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.

    A point that the Do Not Leave campaign never grasped.
    Very true. It seemed to me that the contrast with 1975 was strong. There was a strong IN campaign then; I clearly remember leafletting, stewarding at public meetings and so on. In fact, on Referendum Day I spent about 8 hours driving the Liberals Loudspeaker Van....my wife's mini with a speaker strapped to the roof rack,...... with a plummy-voiced prominent local Conservative urging people to vote.
    I saw nothing like that this time. I got the impression that the leaders of Remain thought no-one would be daft enough to vote for Johnson and Farage's lies.
    And I went looking for campaigners locally.
    I did leaflet from a stall in our local market though!
  • As I said on the last thread, the current YouGov shows remarkable unpopularity for everyone and everything - May, Corbyn and every political party. Labour scrapes to the top with 30% saying they like them.

    If that persists to the election, I think that differential turnout will decide it - an awful lot of people will jusat roll their eyes and stay at home. It's there that Corbyn has an edge, because around 25% of the electorate are really enthusiastic about him. It's quite difficult to find people who think May is really good - plenty of sympathy, but very little actual enthusiastic support.

    You have to consider the dedicated stop Corbyn voters. The nature of Corbyn and a Momentum controlled LP makes politics very difficult to predict by looking at historical analogies - whether they win or lose. Unless Tories are actually in process of splitting or select JRM or BJ as leader I'm not sure Labour will win a majority. I'd also guess that Corbyn will have a terrible campaign this time on TV and traditional media but still do well online and in terms of rallies, Tories will probably up on-line game a bit.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    Yes that’s the only reason
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    Yes that’s the only reason
    That and not wanting to admit their innate stupidity has ruined everything.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    notme said:

    Is it just me or is Junker a total cock?

    https://youtu.be/8g6BdN-sH7g

    I think he's hilarious. Ever since Cameron was made to look like a twat by trying to take credit for 'blocking' his appointment only to see him appointed, I felt he was sound. I don't want to be part of the EU, but if we could have voted to get rid of UK Governments with dupicitous agendas and replace them with honest ones, I would have much preferred that. But the chance we got was to get rid of Juncker and his cronies instead.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    notme said:

    Is it just me or is Junker a total cock?

    https://youtu.be/8g6BdN-sH7g

    I think he's hilarious. Ever since Cameron was made to look like a twat by trying to take credit for 'blocking' his appointment only to see him appointed, I felt he was sound. I don't want to be part of the EU, but if we could have voted to get rid of UK Governments with dupicitous agendas and replace them with honest ones, I would have much preferred that. But the chance we got was to get rid of Juncker and his cronies instead.
    He may be a messy old sot, but he's an entertaining one.

    I will miss him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    FF43 said:

    I don't think it's their only justification, and it's a stupid thing to say - especially from people who screeched about 'Project Fear'. Except in their case, it comes across not as a projection or prediction, but a promise.

    The people voted to leave, and the referendum did not come out of a vacuum - people had been hating or mistrusting the EU for years. It's why a referendum was required, and why one would have happened eventually. Europhobia is a sickness afflicting the country.

    Personally I wish the whole sordid mess would go away. It's shown Britain in a terrible light, and makes us all a bit grubbier. But I cannot wish it away, and therefore we need to find the best way out of the mire that won't end up with us falling, Benny Hill-style straight back in.

    Leavers have all but given up pretending anything good will come out of Brexit and they never articulated specific real advantages. We're just left with wew must go ahead, otherwise there will be social disorder. I don't think it's stupid to make that observation, or to feel dissatisfied by it.
    For clarification, I meant it was stupid for leavers to guardedly threaten violence if we don't leave, not that your comment was stupid.

    It's particularly stupid of them as they cannot even agree what 'leave' means, as the ERG show ...
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    Leave Sunil alone, ya great big bully.
    To be honest he has done it to death.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Interesting analysis Mike thanks. Ordinarily I'd say it was pretty convincing... but these are not ordinary times, so who knows.

    Also, and this has no doubt already been pointed out, it's unlikely to be a May v Corbyn contest.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Yorkcity said:

    Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    Leave Sunil alone, ya great big bully.
    To be honest he has done it to death.
    Look, Sunil has been repeating the same three jokes since the dawn of time.

    Just accept it.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    Yes that’s the only reason
    That and not wanting to admit their innate stupidity has ruined everything.
    Really? There are plenty of good reasons on both sides
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Yorkcity said:

    Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    Leave Sunil alone, ya great big bully.
    To be honest he has done it to death.
    Agreed - he's very tiresome.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    As I said on the last thread, the current YouGov shows remarkable unpopularity for everyone and everything - May, Corbyn and every political party. Labour scrapes to the top with 30% saying they like them.

    If that persists to the election, I think that differential turnout will decide it - an awful lot of people will jusat roll their eyes and stay at home. It's there that Corbyn has an edge, because around 25% of the electorate are really enthusiastic about him. It's quite difficult to find people who think May is really good - plenty of sympathy, but very little actual enthusiastic support.

    You have to consider the dedicated stop Corbyn voters. The nature of Corbyn and a Momentum controlled LP makes politics very difficult to predict by looking at historical analogies - whether they win or lose. Unless Tories are actually in process of splitting or select JRM or BJ as leader I'm not sure Labour will win a majority. I'd also guess that Corbyn will have a terrible campaign this time on TV and traditional media but still do well online and in terms of rallies, Tories will probably up on-line game a bit.
    Suspect we'll find out sometime in the next 12 months.

    Remember when we used to laugh at the Italians and Belgians for their unstable governments? :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    edited December 2018
    Our future PM about to present HIGNFY

    C'mon Gary!!
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Time for a boycott of Wetherspoons.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    It will happen again.

    No because, unlike before, the people answering the pollsters now already includes 20% more people who know they voted Labour last time. Your theory only makes sense if these people told pollsters they were Tory, voted Labour, and then went straight back to telling pollsters they were Tory. That I don't believe.
    Plus almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and non voters.

    There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
    Tories lost seats to Labour in both Wales and England. May only kept her job thanks to a backlash against the SNP in Scotland.
    They gained some from Labour too on a net basis but lost them slightly on a net basis mainly in London and the South because some Remainers moved to stop a hard Brexit. The 42% May got was the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 and the number of seats she won still the highest Tory number since 1992, as I said most of the Labour gains came from squeezing minor parties, the LDs and UKIP ended the campaign far lower than they started for instance, Corbyn has little room to squeeze the minor parties again
  • Our future PM about to present HIGNFY

    C'mon Gary!!

    People still watch that show?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    As I said on the last thread, the current YouGov shows remarkable unpopularity for everyone and everything - May, Corbyn and every political party. Labour scrapes to the top with 30% saying they like them.

    If that persists to the election, I think that differential turnout will decide it - an awful lot of people will jusat roll their eyes and stay at home. It's there that Corbyn has an edge, because around 25% of the electorate are really enthusiastic about him. It's quite difficult to find people who think May is really good - plenty of sympathy, but very little actual enthusiastic support.

    You have to consider the dedicated stop Corbyn voters. The nature of Corbyn and a Momentum controlled LP makes politics very difficult to predict by looking at historical analogies - whether they win or lose. Unless Tories are actually in process of splitting or select JRM or BJ as leader I'm not sure Labour will win a majority. I'd also guess that Corbyn will have a terrible campaign this time on TV and traditional media but still do well online and in terms of rallies, Tories will probably up on-line game a bit.
    Suspect we'll find out sometime in the next 12 months.

    Remember when we used to laugh at the Italians and Belgians for their unstable governments? :smile:
    5 3 1 0 days since the last public humiliation of Theresa May.
  • Fenman said:

    Time for a boycott of Wetherspoons.....

    This over the twitter thing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,062

    Donny43 said:

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.

    A point that the Do Not Leave campaign never grasped.
    Very true. It seemed to me that the contrast with 1975 was strong. There was a strong IN campaign then; I clearly remember leafletting, stewarding at public meetings and so on. In fact, on Referendum Day I spent about 8 hours driving the Liberals Loudspeaker Van....my wife's mini with a speaker strapped to the roof rack,...... with a plummy-voiced prominent local Conservative urging people to vote.
    I saw nothing like that this time. I got the impression that the leaders of Remain thought no-one would be daft enough to vote for Johnson and Farage's lies.
    And I went looking for campaigners locally.
    One of the striking thing about recent campaigns and elections has been the paucity of street level activity, apart from the surfeit of Corbynites. I saw only one poster during the Brexit campaign (Leave on IoW). I did one stall in Melton, and there was a Britain First one in Leicester. Both the rallies that I went to (1 Leave in Leicester, 1 Remain in Rutland) had only a couple of dozen in attendance. I did some vote cultivating at work, but there was nothing visible in my suburb. It was an online campaign on both sides.

    I think this is how it is now. I barely saw a poster in either 2015 or 2017 GE either, despite quite extensive travels by road in a variety of constituencies, some marginal. I think political campaigning has changed, and public expression of affiliation rather frowned upon by both sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
    No Tory leader since Churchill has lost a general election as PM and lasted more than a year, if May failed to win a pre 2022 general election there would also be a vacancy for opposition leader
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Foxy said:


    I think political campaigning has changed, and public expression of affiliation rather frowned upon by both sides.

    Social media and targeted internet ad campaigns are cheaper, more effective, less labour intensive, and have greater reach and virality.
  • Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    More like a new Chamberlain.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    More like a new Chamberlain.
    If the Tories really want to provoke the ERG into using the nuclear option, putting Ken Clarke in charge would do it.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    I don't think it's their only justification, and it's a stupid thing to say - especially from people who screeched about 'Project Fear'. Except in their case, it comes across not as a projection or prediction, but a promise.

    The people voted to leave, and the referendum did not come out of a vacuum - people had been hating or mistrusting the EU for years. It's why a referendum was required, and why one would have happened eventually. Europhobia is a sickness afflicting the country.

    Personally I wish the whole sordid mess would go away. It's shown Britain in a terrible light, and makes us all a bit grubbier. But I cannot wish it away, and therefore we need to find the best way out of the mire that won't end up with us falling, Benny Hill-style straight back in.
    Only someone utterly delusional would call opposition to a political construct a sickness. It kind of sums up the Remainer attitude. Europhilia is more akin to a religion with the same utter lack of logic as its basis. You'll be calling us all blasphemers next.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,062

    Foxy said:


    I think political campaigning has changed, and public expression of affiliation rather frowned upon by both sides.

    Social media and targeted internet ad campaigns are cheaper, more effective, less labour intensive, and have greater reach and virality.
    Certainly people are willing to push their party colours online, even amongst friends.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    In the medium to long term, young people who have grown up with the EU and like it will become the majority.

    I think that's a fallacy - or at least unproven. One of the problems remain faced in the referendum is that the Europhobes placed all the country's ills at its knees: "It's not our fault, it's the EU's fault!"

    That's powerful, and as those young people grow older, it may be a powerful recruiting sergeant for europhobia. It was made worse by politicians who found it was convenient to blame problems on the EU rather than accept blame themselves. It'll be even worse if we remain without a referendum.

    And one other thing: remain could have won the referendum if only the activists had been half as active as leavers were. I was one of the few people on here who made a positive argument about the EU (in a very small area), and when hordes of stupid leavers tried to trash my argument without even reading it, I got fuck-all support from the remainers on here.

    If you want to remain, argue for it. Sell the EU positively - and there is much that is positive to sell. Don't sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
    I would argue that your last statement is the most important. The central problem with the way that our political leaders have framed Britain's relationship with the EU is, and has been since the very beginning, that they have presented it as purely transactional. We put X-number of pounds into the budget, and get Y-number of pounds back in the form of increased economic activity. Whether you agree that it is a good idea or not, it's quite evident that no serious attempt has ever been made to sell the project of European unity as something that might actually be desirable in terms of drawing people and societies closer together: to make an emotional case for the project.

    I don't know, perhaps that would never have worked? Maybe the UK is, whether for better or worse, an exceptional case? I don't think we need to go raking through the ashes of history to work out why that might be. My point is, it was never tried. So, when the Euro crisis blew up at the same time as immigration from both within and without Europe's borders became a hot button issue, it changed the cost/benefit calculus in enough people's minds to persuade the majority they were better off leaving - this in a way that did not happen in Scotland two years before, even though the "Leavers" up there were led by the country's own Government and had a larger and more vigorous campaign to help them along.

    Many people are attached to Britain. That's worth a lot of extra votes. Few, by comparison, feel attached to Europe. I think that's ultimately why one proposition managed to gain majority support, whereas the other did not - and why David Cameron's first project fear worked, and his second didn't.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    +1

    KC 4 PM

    He is a great communicator, excellent judgement, not afraid of making hard choices/ decisions that might make him unpopular in some quarters.
  • Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    +1

    KC 4 PM

    He is a great communicator, excellent judgement, not afraid of making hard choices/ decisions that might make him unpopular in some quarters.
    +1 as well. He has principles (would have been PM long ago without them) and is materially better than the current shower of politicians
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
    No Tory leader since Churchill has lost a general election as PM and lasted more than a year, if May failed to win a pre 2022 general election there would also be a vacancy for opposition leader
    If so, it still won't be Boris, who will be the day before yesterday's man by then. The cry for the next generation to step up will be irresistible.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    image

    wint
  • matt said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
    I’m sure if the numbers weren’t so tight they’d have been happy to see Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen go to the LDs, and Dominic Grieve would probably have been suspended for his antics last week in conniving with the Speaker to try and engineer a direct contravention of the manifesto on which he was elected.

    But that’s not what you meant, is it?
    There’s only one faction which has acted like the enemy within and appears to actively work against the government. It isn’t the ones you’ve named (or the other hate figures that the misogynists here seem terribly excited about). It’s the balding, dim men in grey suits.
    I am sure the 14 identified female members of the ERG will be very pleased to know they are considered balding dim men in grey suits.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    matt said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    If there are 20 Brexiters planning to abstain on a VONC, as reported by Buzzfeed, surely they should lose the whip now?

    They should be deselected, if you're elected with a blue or red rosette it is sort of your one job.
    Indeed. Any Conservative MPs not voting with the government on a vote of confidence will quickly find themselves kicked out of the party.

    Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
    You say that, but I don't see much resolve (the CoE excepted) within the Tory party to take on their enemy within?
    I’m sure if the numbers weren’t so tight they’d have been happy to see Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen go to the LDs, and Dominic Grieve would probably have been suspended for his antics last week in conniving with the Speaker to try and engineer a direct contravention of the manifesto on which he was elected.

    But that’s not what you meant, is it?
    There’s only one faction which has acted like the enemy within and appears to actively work against the government. It isn’t the ones you’ve named (or the other hate figures that the misogynists here seem terribly excited about). It’s the balding, dim men in grey suits.
    I am sure the 14 identified female members of the ERG will be very pleased to know they are considered balding dim men in grey suits.
    Women can be fucking idiots too, we don't discriminate.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    None of our options will lead to a settled resolution within a few years. Which is the problem, of course. However we can say "No Deal" is by the far least settled. The clue's in the name.

    I disagree. Whilst there will always be grumbling, the level of grumbling at a remain -especially without a valid referendum - would be massive. And understandably so.

    Whereas 'No Deal' can be said to match the referendum's results. Now, I happen to think a rushed No Deal is a mistake. I would rank it right at the bottom of all the possible options, and would keep it locked in a deep, damp cellar where future generations of archaeologists might dig it up to wonder at the stupidity of Britain in the mid-2010s. "They got that close to the precipice? Wow!"

    But when it comes to political and social troubles, remain is by far the worst option. I'll guarantee one thing: if we go down that route, we'll be back where we are within ten years. If not earlier.

    I voted remain. I would happily remain in the EU under Cameron's deal (I would not, however, join the Euro). But May's deal seems reasonable, and something that can bring together reasonable people on both sides.

    Remaining without a reasonable referendum, and especially where it will not result in a trouncing of leave, will be tragic for society. There's just so much stupid hatred of the EU out there, as we see frequently on here.
    Maybe you're right. It doesn't sit well with me that Leavers' ONLY justification for continuing with Brexit is they will riot if they don't get their way.
    I don't think it's their only justification, and it's a stupid thing to say - especially from people who screeched about 'Project Fear'. Except in their case, it comes across not as a projection or prediction, but a promise.

    The people voted to leave, and the referendum did not come out of a vacuum - people had been hating or mistrusting the EU for years. It's why a referendum was required, and why one would have happened eventually. Europhobia is a sickness afflicting the country.

    Personally I wish the whole sordid mess would go away. It's shown Britain in a terrible light, and makes us all a bit grubbier. But I cannot wish it away, and therefore we need to find the best way out of the mire that won't end up with us falling, Benny Hill-style straight back in.
    Leavers have all but given up pretending anything good will come out of Brexit and they never articulated specific real advantages. We're just left with wew must go ahead, otherwise there will be social disorder. I don't think it's stupid to make that observation, or to feel dissatisfied by it.
    It is stupid because it is not true.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    More like a new Chamberlain.
    If the Tories really want to provoke the ERG into using the nuclear option, putting Ken Clarke in charge would do it.
    I would imagine that the ERG have a lot of time or respect for Ken Clarke because he has always been totally upfront about his views and never shied away from the debate. I would imagine they have no time for MP's like mine who has been named in All Out War as being a very strong remainer linked to the Grieve group in Parliament, but who will not offer one scintilla of his pro EU views to his constituents. It is these people that need to be got out of Parliament to let more Ken CLarkes in.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Only someone utterly delusional would call opposition to a political construct a sickness. It kind of sums up the Remainer attitude. Europhilia is more akin to a religion with the same utter lack of logic as its basis. You'll be calling us all blasphemers next.

    There's opposition to something, and then there's wanting it so badly you're willing to do anything for it, or when it becomes all-consuming. That's when it becomes a sickness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
    No Tory leader since Churchill has lost a general election as PM and lasted more than a year, if May failed to win a pre 2022 general election there would also be a vacancy for opposition leader
    If so, it still won't be Boris, who will be the day before yesterday's man by then. The cry for the next generation to step up will be irresistible.
    People said the same about Trump, it was Rubio etc who were the next generation just as Javid is supposedly for the Tories now, the GOP primary voters just like Tory members had other ideas they wanted a charismatic populist with a message they believed in
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Yorkcity said:

    Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    Leave Sunil alone, ya great big bully.
    To be honest he has done it to death.
    +1
  • Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    +1

    KC 4 PM

    He is a great communicator, excellent judgement, not afraid of making hard choices/ decisions that might make him unpopular in some quarters.
    +1 as well. He has principles (would have been PM long ago without them) and is materially better than the current shower of politicians
    Another +1 from me. I don’t agree with everything he says but he is head and shoulders above the current crop and one of the best PMs we never had.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    In honour of the splits in the country, I have changed my profile picture to a scene I found outside a couple of houses during a walk a few months ago.

    I wonder if the neighbours get on? ;)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tonight is frot kenneth night on PB
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    notme said:

    Is it just me or is Junker a total cock?

    https://youtu.be/8g6BdN-sH7g

    I think he's hilarious. Ever since Cameron was made to look like a twat by trying to take credit for 'blocking' his appointment only to see him appointed, I felt he was sound. I don't want to be part of the EU, but if we could have voted to get rid of UK Governments with dupicitous agendas and replace them with honest ones, I would have much preferred that. But the chance we got was to get rid of Juncker and his cronies instead.
    He's good value and apparently good company. That little jig he did at the podium the day after May's dancing speech was classic. And especially the official statement afterwards that he wasn't making a point about anyone but was just in a good mood.
  • Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    More like a new Chamberlain.
    If the Tories really want to provoke the ERG into using the nuclear option, putting Ken Clarke in charge would do it.
    Actually I can't be too critical of Ken much as I wouldn't be too critical of Chamberlain. Both act(ed) on principles because they thought what they were doing was best for the country., I think both are wrong but I would much rather have someone with principles in charge than someone who just wanted power - which I think is pretty much what we have had since 1990.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Interesting interview with Ken Clarke on C4 News. His renewed visibility over the last few days is significant. It looks like he's gearing up to lead a coalition of the sane out of this unholy mess. Let's hope so. It would be a brilliant culmination to a great career: the new Churchill coming back to lead his country away from the abyss.

    +1

    KC 4 PM

    He is a great communicator, excellent judgement, not afraid of making hard choices/ decisions that might make him unpopular in some quarters.
    +1 as well. He has principles (would have been PM long ago without them) and is materially better than the current shower of politicians
    Another +1 from me. I don’t agree with everything he says but he is head and shoulders above the current crop and one of the best PMs we never had.
    And +1. I am fed up with these child politicians; it is time for the grown ups.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
    No Tory leader since Churchill has lost a general election as PM and lasted more than a year, if May failed to win a pre 2022 general election there would also be a vacancy for opposition leader
    If so, it still won't be Boris, who will be the day before yesterday's man by then. The cry for the next generation to step up will be irresistible.
    In the middle of a load of posts praising Ken Clarke...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited December 2018

    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image


    How can you keep grating cheese that is too small to grate? A modern day koan for our times.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image

    It's just a poll - let's wait for the grate referendum before we get excited shall we?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Anazina said:

    Corbyn is an excellent campaigner. He overturned a 20pt May lead in a month and a half.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
    I think I speak for most people. This is utterly fucking tiresome. You have a PhD. Do something else.
    It's tiresome for the first 20 or so times. But after a while it becomes funny again. A bit like the running jokes in Private Eye.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image

    It's just a poll - let's wait for the grate referendum before we get excited shall we?
    But the questions clearly grate on some people. Which isn't great. We don't want anyone cheesed off. Could cost OGH a packet on an argument as pointless as a list of the virtues of The Last Jedi.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image


    How can you keep grating cheese that is too small to grate? A modern day koan for our times.
    The headline says 'too small to grate' but the question doesn’t. Fake news!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Donny43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    These ratings suggest Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election but Corbyn still becomes PM via the backdoor. The most likely outcome of a general election tomorrow is the Tories end up largest party, probably with a majority in England but Corbyn ends up PM due to SNP confidence and supply and we end up with permanent Customs Union and Single Market.
    May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC

    Unless something drastic happens in Scottish politics, the next government is likely to be a Labour/SNP coalition.

    CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
    Probably with Boris then Leader of the Opposition.

    The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.

    Who needs independence?
    If May is standing down before the GE, the next Tory leader will drop straight into being PM (which means it won't be Boris). Unless they resign following loss of the successive election, which is unlikely given that they are new in the job (and probably from the upcoming generation), how does Boris get to be LOTO? He'll be yesterday's man then, as indeed he is now.
    No Tory leader since Churchill has lost a general election as PM and lasted more than a year, if May failed to win a pre 2022 general election there would also be a vacancy for opposition leader
    If so, it still won't be Boris, who will be the day before yesterday's man by then. The cry for the next generation to step up will be irresistible.
    In the middle of a load of posts praising Ken Clarke...
    As a crisis caretaker, for sure. Who would see Boris as a safe pair of hands?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    YouGov poll klaxon!

    image

    What disturbs me are the 3% "other". Who are these people, and what do they do the kinky beasts?
This discussion has been closed.