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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    No deal has maybe 50-100 MPs in favour. I don't see what is so difficult about Labour and Tory MPs agreeing to revoke a50 to give time for another general election or referendum of some other plan. If May won't do it then her own remainer MPs will turn on her.

    Let's make this simple.

    If we REVOKE, as in, cancel, A50, the EU will not then allow us to turn up a year later with another plan and invoking A50 again. They will thrash the same deal on the table and say, take it, or leave it, make up your stupid minds. And do you know what? They would be right. Quite apart from the farcical nature of the events, what would happen if say Italy or Hungary decided to invoke and revoke every couple of years? It would be chaos and very damaging to everyone.

    We could ask to extend. That is different. The EU might however refuse. What's in it for them? There's no sign of any fundamental change that might lead to a breakthrough. An election wouldn't cut it. Best case scenario is May wins a small overall majority. Worst case scenario is a rainbow coalition of various nationalists, populists and unicorn hunters led by a man who isn't going senile, he's always been this thick. Another referendum can't happen because we cannot agree on a question.

    It is this deal, or it is no deal. At the moment, unless Labour or the ERG have a lucid moment, it looks like no deal, and has done bluntly since Chequers.
    It is this deal or no deal given the starting point of May’s red lines. That’s what Barnier’s famous “steps” diagram has made clear since day one.

    If May goes and her ridiculous Nick Timothy-imposed red lines with her, a whole bunch of other deals are possible.
    I agree. If for instance a future PM said we can live with FOM, then we would have a very different set of possible deals.
    There is zero chance of anyone dismissing FOM as unimportant becoming PM
    My impression is that the EU may itself be having a bit of a rethink on FOM. The UK isn't the only member to have a problem with it.
    The difference however is that the EU's principal issue is the refugees from Africa and the Middle East washing up in Greece, Italy and Spain and spreading across Europe's parks. This has relatively little to do with internal FOM, since reintroduction of border controls isn't a realistic proposition and wouldn't stop people moving between countries illegally anyhow. Britain is largely isolated from this by dint of our ocean moat; the concern we have with Polish and Romanian workers isn't high on the rest of the EU's priorities.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    And if they are organising a special conference to try and force Corbyn's hand they aren't all in denial.
  • I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited December 2018

    FF43 said:


    Except Brexit isn't a side issue. It has suppressed economic growth by about two percentage points in the two years since the referendum. That's a big deal given that our growth rates are typically 1% or 2% per annum, we haven't left yet and potentially the growth depeciator will be bigger and last longer going forward.

    Put it another way, I don't believe you think Brexit is such a side issue that you would countenance cancelling it, which is what we would do if we were concerned about the state of the economy.

    theres simply no way of knowing that. You are merely comparing results to a forecast.

    It could have killed growth by 4% or if I take Osbornes armageddon forecast we have done better by 8%

    It's not a forecast (which generally have been much closer to the out turn than people have made out). It's a pretty near cross the board consensus of economists of the actual out turn compared with well understood counterfactuals . A couple go as low as a 1% suppression. Most go for 2% after removing quantitative easing from the calculation. A negative effect is essentially guaranteed given Brexit known knowns and known unknowns are all downside.

    But don't worry . They are only experts and can and will be dismissed.
  • IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    No deal has maybe 50-100 MPs in favour. I don't see what is so difficult about Labour and Tory MPs agreeing to revoke a50 to give time for another general election or referendum of some other plan. If May won't do it then her own remainer MPs will turn on her.

    Let's make this simple.

    If we REVOKE, as in, cancel, A50, the EU will not then allow us to turn up a year later with another plan and invoking A50 again. They will thrash the same deal on the table and say, take it, or leave it, make up your stupid minds. And do you know what? They would be right. Quite apart from the farcical nature of the events, what would happen if say Italy or Hungary decided to invoke and revoke every couple of years? It would be chaos and very damaging to everyone.

    We could ask to extend. That is different. The EU might however refuse. What's in it for them? Therulists and unicorn hunters led by a man who isn't going senile, he's always been this thick. Another referendum can't happen because we cannot agree on a question.

    It is this deal, or it is no deal. At the moment, unless Labour or the ERG have a lucid moment, it looks like no deal, and has done bluntly since Chequers.
    It is this deal or no deal given the starting point of May’s red lines. That’s what Barnier’s famous “steps” diagram has made clear since day one.

    If May goes and her ridiculous Nick Timothy-imposed red lines with her, a whole bunch of other deals are possible.
    I agree. If for instance a future PM said we can live with FOM, then we would have a very different set of possible deals.
    There is zero chance of anyone dismissing FOM as unimportant becoming PM
    My impression is that the EU may itself be having a bit of a rethink on FOM. The UK isn't the only member to have a problem with it.
    The difference however is that the EU's principal issue is the refugees from Africa and the Middle East washing up in Greece, Italy and Spain and spreading across Europe's parks. This has relatively little to do with internal FOM, since reintroduction of border controls isn't a realistic proposition and wouldn't stop people moving between countries illegally anyhow. Britain is largely isolated from this by dint of our ocean moat; the concern we have with Polish and Romanian workers isn't high on the rest of the EU's priorities.
    Agreed.

    The two issues may be connected but they are different. However I do detect that in respect of this second issue too, the EU is coming round to thinking that the creation of a 9,000 mile border does require some attention to the means of policing it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Dublin was ace. Pretty sure the company blew the budget quite badly, the financial controller broke out the company gold card when the bar tab ran out. :D
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    At the end of the day, May is Prime Minister and the Conservative Party is in power.

    If we come to late March, with no Deal signed, she has the choice. If she takes us out with No Deal, then she has judged that to be the better choice, and she (and the Conservatives) will take the consequences of that decision.

    The other decisions may be unpalatable - revoke A50, call a Deal-vs-Revoke referendum - but they exist. And, after 31 March 2019, they will have existed in hindsight as well, and she and the Conservatives will bear the responsibility for the decision made.

    It will only happen if she judges the outcomes of the other two choices to be worse. And we know that her judgement will bear in mind the effects on her Party and maybe, arguably, more so than the effects on the country.

    She's not helpless, she does have choices, and she isn't forced to choose No Deal if her Deal is lost. If we go out with No Deal, she'll be saying "Look at what you made me do," yes, but she would only have been "made" to do it due to unwillingness to choose one of the alternatives. Again, they may have been worse, but it does look to an outsider to the Conservatives that they are more "worse for her Party" than "worse for her country" and that she'll have chosen Party over country.

    The finger pointing and blame by the government at others would fall on deaf ears among those not already convinced. If we go to no deal it will be the government that has chosen to do so and the government that takes responsibility for the consequences.

    That assumes Labour will do all in its power to prevent a No Deal from happening - including backing a referendum. So far it hasn't.

    They don't want to give May her 'they just want to stop Brexit' line but they would certainly support legislation for a second referendum as it got closer to the deadline if there was support across the commons as opposed to no deal or May's deal.

    Realistically I don't see a way we head into no deal without Labour supporting a referendum as the alternative at any point.


  • At the end of the day, May is Prime Minister and the Conservative Party is in power.

    If we come to late March, with no Deal signed, she has the choice. If she takes us out with No Deal, then she has judged that to be the better choice, and she (and the Conservatives) will take the consequences of that decision.

    The other decisions may be unpalatable - revoke A50, call a Deal-vs-Revoke referendum - but they exist. And, after 31 March 2019, they will have existed in hindsight as well, and she and the Conservatives will bear the responsibility for the decision made.

    It will only happen if she judges the outcomes of the other two choices to be worse. And we know that her judgement will bear in mind the effects on her Party and maybe, arguably, more so than the effects on the country.

    She's not helpless, she does have choices, and she isn't forced to choose No Deal if her Deal is lost. If we go out with No Deal, she'll be saying "Look at what you made me do," yes, but she would only have been "made" to do it due to unwillingness to choose one of the alternatives. Again, they may have been worse, but it does look to an outsider to the Conservatives that they are more "worse for her Party" than "worse for her country" and that she'll have chosen Party over country.

    The finger pointing and blame by the government at others would fall on deaf ears among those not already convinced. If we go to no deal it will be the government that has chosen to do so and the government that takes responsibility for the consequences.
    Yes, that is always the case. The Government takes the responsibility and blame regardless. Witness Blair and Iraq. The Conservative Party was even more gung-ho than he was, but he and Labour took the blame - and correctly so.

    It is difficult to see any resolution of the current crisis which does not cost the Conservative Party dearly. A second referendum looks the least bad option from that perspective but there will definitely be a price to pay.

    Never mind - as long as Corbyn leads the opposition, the hit shouldn't be too hard!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
  • I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
    A Government Of National Unity is an interesting idea. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .
  • Yellow submarine has pipped my point about A50...I suspect an extension will be fothcoming in the typical last minute shenanigans that have marked UK-EU relations. The running down of the clock is inexcusable by May and I wonder whether an enforced retirement on health grounds (she appears shattered in my opinion) is the best option for all..? That however does not solve the question of her successor.

    It is not May as such who is running down the clock. It is that there is no overlap between the EU's red lines, the government's red lines, and what can pass parliament given both ideological and partisan factors. There is no agreement that could be made that could be ratified given the current parliamentary maths. In fact, it's *only* running down the clock - which then rules out certain options - that could produce the pressure to deliver a deal.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    MaxPB said:

    Dublin was ace. Pretty sure the company blew the budget quite badly, the financial controller broke out the company gold card when the bar tab ran out. :D

    Chapter One/L’ecrivan and 37 Dawson Street?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2018
    As the country and economy is clearly not prepared for No Deal I think in the end enough Labour MPs in Leave seats will vote for the Deal as an alternative to an EUref2 neither they nor their constituents want or a very damaging No Deal which would hit their constituents hard.

    That also though probably means a general election in May Spring as the DUP will vote against the government in VONC (an added incentive for Corbyn to allow enough Labour MPs to rebel and see the Deal scraped home) and May will likely lead the Tories at that general election there being not enough time to change the leadership rules or incentive due to what May result. Corbyn would probably then become PM but without a majority which means he will be reliant on the SNP and therefore Brexit would end up as CU plus SM BINO or something close. Boris is then probably elected Leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit ticket
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    of course but thats only one aspect

    once someone from the ME or Africa is in the EU FoM means they can move about, Mrs Merkel turned 180 degrees when inviting the world to Germany became an electoral liability and promptly dumped the problem on her neighbours.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
    A Government Of National Unity is an interesting idea. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of it.
    It's the only way to prevent May from blocking other routes out of this mess. However it requires moderate Tories to break with their government, which is a huge step to take and one that only becomes thinkable when the existing government has effectively collapsed.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    No wonder Rory Stewart has never made the Cabinet, he is far too thoughtful and rational.

    That the top table of British politics does not have a space for someone like him, but does reward cretins such as Fox, Grayling, Johnson, Corbyn, Burgon and the like, tells you everything you need to know about British politics.

    He'll be resigning honourably next August in all likelihood too.
    Also interesting how thoughtful James O’Brien can be when faced by the same on the other side of the desk. Most of the stuff of his that gets tweeted is him treading someone into the ground like a fag butt.
    Wow - I'm really impressed by Rory Stewart. For the first time I can see an advantage of May's deal over remaining. If Rory Stewart has a leading role in a referendum of Deal versus Remain, I can see Deal winning. But I suspect he won't be given a role. It will be Brexit means Brexit - no foreigners.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    No wonder Rory Stewart has never made the Cabinet, he is far too thoughtful and rational.

    That the top table of British politics does not have a space for someone like him, but does reward cretins such as Fox, Grayling, Johnson, Corbyn, Burgon and the like, tells you everything you need to know about British politics.

    He'll be resigning honourably next August in all likelihood too.
    Also interesting how thoughtful James O’Brien can be when faced by the same on the other side of the desk. Most of the stuff of his that gets tweeted is him treading someone into the ground like a fag butt.
    How nice to have an interview conducted without frequent interruptions, raised voices and full questions and answers.

    I enjoyed listening to that. That kind of consensual (in terms add alerting time for answers, not interviewer and interviewee agreeing) interview would go towards lancing the boil of modern politics if it replaced the shouty interruption laden aggressive crap we get all the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2018

    OT CNN Dem poll, interesting that they have numbers before and after the mid-terms. Losing didn't hurt Beto, apparently...

    Biden still well ahead. I know there's name recognition but this is a big number. Bernie still a bit meh, miscellaneous liberals (Warren, Harris) getting squeezed, support looks like it's going to Beto.

    Raw numbers here, I stopped copy-pasting at KLOBUCHAR who has SURGED 300%.

    Candidate Dec. 6-9, 2018 (Oct. 4-7, 2018)
    Former Vice President Joe Biden 30% (33%)
    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 14% (13%)
    Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 9% (4%)
    New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 5% (5%)
    California Senator Kamala Harris 4% (9%)
    Former Secretary of State John Kerry 4% (5%)
    Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 3% (8%)
    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 3% (4%)
    Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 3% (1%)

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.html

    Biden still ahead, Sanders second, nobody else double figures though O'Rourke a clear third.

    Sanders and Warren met last week apparently but both still intending to run though on those numbers Sanders may ask her to endorse him. Bloomberg nowhere still, I think he may run as an independent if the Democrats pick a populist left liberal to run against Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html

    Sanders will be aiming for early wins in Iowa, which he lost by less than 1% last time and New Hampshire which he won to get the momentum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    of course but thats only one aspect

    once someone from the ME or Africa is in the EU FoM means they can move about, Mrs Merkel turned 180 degrees when inviting the world to Germany became an electoral liability and promptly dumped the problem on her neighbours.
    That is such a misrepresentation of what happened. Merkel’s decision took the burden off her neighbours. Without suspending the Dublin accord, Germany would have sent them all back to Greece.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
    A Government Of National Unity is an interesting idea. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of it.
    Ramsay MacMay?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
    Tosh. @Peter_the_Punter would be saying exactly the same if May was trying to trash Corbyn's "Job's first" Brexit he'd negotiated. Seeing as Olly Robbins and his team are eminently neutral civil servants, it'd look remarkably like this deal probably swapping FoM on the first page for unbridled state intervention in industry.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I have hit the big time. Anna Soubry has retweeted me ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1073495272771252224

    A good point, though I am not 100% sure McDonell is still on your list.
    It's not true. What is true is that they are exploiting the current crisis for political advantage.

    It is inexcusable, and the sooner they stop, the better for everybody.
    I was expecting a national government to be formed to get this through. It was the choice of the Conservatives to go it alone and make it a party political issue. Whatever else happens, you can't blame the Labour Party for exploiting a crisis created by and owned by the Conservatives for political advantage.

    But it is instructive that we are now at the 'how do we somehow blame this on the Labour Party?' stage.
    A Government Of National Unity is an interesting idea. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of it.
    Imagine where we'd be now if one had been announced in the week after the referendum. We'd probably have just about agreed a timetable and have a date for the first general election outside the EU. This thread would probably be discussing how Labour needed to get rid of Corbyn to prevent the Tories getting the 200 seat majority the polls were predicting for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Yes, I am sure you are right Mark. However few supporters of No Deal have a proper conception of what it would entail, and of course once it has been triggered, there is no way back.

    Peter, I see very few active advocates of an unprepared No Deal. There are a few that would accept it as better than all other options. There are significantly more that would want to sand down the hard edges by having reached a number of side deals first.

    But the greater number seem to be those who would gamble that their outcome for Brexit will be better than May's deal - even if their outcome has little obvious chance of success.

    The matter is complicated because nobody really wants to accept that their preferred Brexit outcome is off the table yet. Get to the New Year and a second referendum will be seen to have died through lack of coherency, lack of time. Supporters of a second referendum will then have to decide -

    1. No Deal (nope),

    2. Article 50 revocation (How? May won't do it as it condemns the past two and a half years of her Premiership as having been utterly futile. Even with May gone, no future Tory leader will agree to it either. No, Brexit has to be sorted - and sorted now.)

    3. an extension to Article 50 (to what end? The EU will only agree to one if it is to allow us enough time to find our Capitulation Signing Pen, not to get our shit together on any other option)

    4. a pivot to Norway+ (even worse than May's deal for most Tories, no time to get it in place, no guarantee EU would play ball anyway)

    5. May's Deal with the backstop amended - Dead On Arrival

    6. May's Deal as is.

    May won a number of Tory doubters on Tuesday with her renegotiated deal plan. They might feel like prize chumps for being taken in, but if it is May's Deal or No Deal, they will grimace and support her deal. (If Boris wants to play the statesman role, now is the time for him to accept it has to be this deal....) May just needs some momentum towards her deal that the Times has declared "dead" on its front page today.

    If the Tories did start to coalesce behind her deal as the only realistic option, that positions Labour as owning No Deal.... At which point, abstain for second referendumers seems like the smart move.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    of course but thats only one aspect

    once someone from the ME or Africa is in the EU FoM means they can move about, Mrs Merkel turned 180 degrees when inviting the world to Germany became an electoral liability and promptly dumped the problem on her neighbours.
    That is such a misrepresentation of what happened. Merkel’s decision took the burden off her neighbours. Without suspending the Dublin accord, Germany would have sent them all back to Greece.
    ROFL

    she INVITED the wotld to Germany. If there was an immigration problem in 2015 it became a crisis with her "wir konnen es schaffen" remarks. The only reason people were in Greece and the Balkans was they were on their way to Germany . Then she shat on Bavaria and ultimately it cost her her job.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    That's because the British don't generally see them as "fellow Europeans" in a meaningful way.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    I see that Amber Rudd has publicly acknowledged that a 'Grand Coalition' Brexit deal is the only way to get something through parliament.

    May should be asking Corbyn and Starmer precisely what changes are required to the deal to win Labour support. Then take Starmer to Brussels and try and get it sorted.

    Brussels may well say 'Bugger Off!', but it is the only chance remaining to get an acceptable deal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I see that Amber Rudd has publicly acknowledged that a 'Grand Coalition' Brexit deal is the only way to get something through parliament.

    May should be asking Corbyn and Starmer precisely what changes are required to the deal to win Labour support. Then take Starmer to Brussels and try and get it sorted.

    Brussels may well say 'Bugger Off!', but it is the only chance remaining to get an acceptable deal.

    Or in other words National Government-lite.

    I'd quite like it. It often seems to be the case that Labour has to step in to sort out the mess the Conservatives have created.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2018

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    They might, they might not....
    It leaves a hell of a decision for both them and the Lib Dems. The DUP prefer remaining over May's deal for sure.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    Yes but the LibDems would probably support her or at least abstain. She would also have some Labour Remainers supporting a referendum of her Deal versus Remain who would abstain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2018
    Barnesian said:

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    Yes but the LibDems would probably support her or at least abstain. She would also have some Labour Remainers supporting a referendum of her Deal versus Remain who would abstain.
    I expect it would be their last act with the red rosette if they were to disobey Corbyn's whip on this one. The 4th line of momentum would probably see to that.
    I think it is entirely in Vince Cable's hands.
    If you're asking the question of Labour remainers supporting the Gov't, then you need to ask would any of the ERG dare go along with the VONC ?
  • I see that Amber Rudd has publicly acknowledged that a 'Grand Coalition' Brexit deal is the only way to get something through parliament.

    May should be asking Corbyn and Starmer precisely what changes are required to the deal to win Labour support. Then take Starmer to Brussels and try and get it sorted.

    Brussels may well say 'Bugger Off!', but it is the only chance remaining to get an acceptable deal.

    The Labour leadership wouldn't let Starmer near Brussels unaccompanied. Have you noticed how it's Burgon doing all the interviews at the moment?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    Why? Remain that they can blame on someone else is their ideal outcome.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited December 2018
    Barnesian said:

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    Yes but the LibDems would probably support her or at least abstain. She would also have some Labour Remainers supporting a referendum of her Deal versus Remain who would abstain.
    Yes but I’m talking about a VONC.

    If May announced a ref, Corbyn would finally try a VONC with potential support from the DUP.

    Any Labour MP who voted confidence in the government would rightly lose the whip.

    Yes, it would come down to the Lib Dem’s on one hand, and perhaps any Tories willing to VONC their own government.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    If May decided on a referedum, even a referendum on her deal in which Parliament inserted a Remain option —- wouldn’t the DUP no confidence her?

    Yes but the LibDems would probably support her or at least abstain. She would also have some Labour Remainers supporting a referendum of her Deal versus Remain who would abstain.
    I expect it would be their last act with the red rosette if they were to disobey Corbyn's whip on this one. The 4th line of momentum would probably see to that.
    I think it is entirely in Vince Cable's hands.
    If you're asking the question of Labour remainers supporting the Gov't, then you need to ask would any of the ERG dare go along with the VONC ?
    Plus SNP, PC and Green.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.
  • Mr. Mark, ugh, sounds bloody annoying. Hope you get it fixed quickly.
  • nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    nico67 said:

    The EU won’t change freedom of movement rules even if the UK has another referendum .

    Those peddling this fantasy ignore the fact that other EU countries have a problem only with non EU migration . A French person going to live and work in Spain is not seen as a migrant . Simply exercising their rights to freedom of movement .

    To be blunt it’s only the U.K. which is obsessed with keeping out fellow Europeans .

    of course but thats only one aspect

    once someone from the ME or Africa is in the EU FoM means they can move about, Mrs Merkel turned 180 degrees when inviting the world to Germany became an electoral liability and promptly dumped the problem on her neighbours.

    FoM does not apply to non-EU citizens. Someone from Africa or the ME can go from country to country within Schengen, but cannot settle or take up work without EU citizenship. And the rules for entry to the UK are the same as if they were coming from their home countries.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.
  • Mr. kinabalu, you should only ever bet what you can afford to lose. Don't get overconfident, or risk more than you can afford.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    she INVITED the wotld to Germany. If there was an immigration problem in 2015 it became a crisis with her "wir konnen es schaffen" remarks. The only reason people were in Greece and the Balkans was they were on their way to Germany . Then she shat on Bavaria and ultimately it cost her her job.

    It was a crisis long before Merkel's intervention. You're obviously reading the wrong papers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited December 2018

    Mr. Mark, ugh, sounds bloody annoying. Hope you get it fixed quickly.

    If they are sufficiently absorbant, I might have finally found a use for all those CCHQ pro-May deal leaflets
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    The roofer needs you more than you need him. Be prepared to walk away with no deal if they don't give you good terms.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    May should be asking Corbyn and Starmer precisely what changes are required to the deal to win Labour support. Then take Starmer to Brussels and try and get it sorted.

    No changes are required to comply with Labour's position. Labour wish to negotiate a very very soft BINO. The WA is compatible with that.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    With can kicker May in charge I think there is a risk of the date slipping.
    Promising and delivering a GE are not the same. What is the percentage of MPs needed under the FTPA? You can't trust either side, Corbyn may go for VONC and get a few months with rainbow support shifting a GE to 2020

    Good luck with the bet..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    A referendum before end 2020 is odds of 2.24 so punters don't think a referendum is "froth".

    Good luck with your bets. I suspect one will win and one won't - so hopefully you won't need to sell the kids.

    I have £33 on 2019 as year of next election at 5.58. I have it as a corollary of a referendum deal.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    she INVITED the wotld to Germany. If there was an immigration problem in 2015 it became a crisis with her "wir konnen es schaffen" remarks. The only reason people were in Greece and the Balkans was they were on their way to Germany . Then she shat on Bavaria and ultimately it cost her her job.

    It was a crisis long before Merkel's intervention. You're obviously reading the wrong papers.
    gee I guess the german press got it wrong

    have you got a link to the Ecclefechan Bugle ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Morning all. Moist here, and not in a good way.

    The current situation could have been crafted in an analagous way to a chess puzzle. How can May win? I don't think she can. Therefore, it's going to be squeaky bum time in the New Year.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    HYUFD said:

    OT CNN Dem poll, interesting that they have numbers before and after the mid-terms. Losing didn't hurt Beto, apparently...

    Biden still well ahead. I know there's name recognition but this is a big number. Bernie still a bit meh, miscellaneous liberals (Warren, Harris) getting squeezed, support looks like it's going to Beto.

    Raw numbers here, I stopped copy-pasting at KLOBUCHAR who has SURGED 300%.

    Candidate Dec. 6-9, 2018 (Oct. 4-7, 2018)
    Former Vice President Joe Biden 30% (33%)
    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 14% (13%)
    Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 9% (4%)
    New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 5% (5%)
    California Senator Kamala Harris 4% (9%)
    Former Secretary of State John Kerry 4% (5%)
    Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 3% (8%)
    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 3% (4%)
    Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 3% (1%)

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.html

    Biden still ahead, Sanders second, nobody else double figures though O'Rourke a clear third.

    Sanders and Warren met last week apparently but both still intending to run though on those numbers Sanders may ask her to endorse him. Bloomberg nowhere still, I think he may run as an independent if the Democrats pick a populist left liberal to run against Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html

    Sanders will be aiming for early wins in Iowa, which he lost by less than 1% last time and New Hampshire which he won to get the momentum
    There will have to be a woman on the ticket; think Warren’s horse has bolted so that means Harris. Not sure where.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    The roofer needs you more than you need him. Be prepared to walk away with no deal if they don't give you good terms.
    I have the backstop of insurance.....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I don't really gamble (bought a few lottery tickets over the years) and I feel too much responsibility to tell others how to gamble so I offer no advice regarding betting itself. Except maybe sorta like Morris said people should only gamble what they are happy to lose.

    There are a couple of MPs who have seemed very angry with May and mentioned the blackmail of running down the clock. More centrist types who may find good reason to back May even against Corbyn's position. There have also been many comments about the fact May hasn't reached out to any Labour MPs. I can't read people's minds but I suspect she has made a lot of the Labour MPs angry and they feel like they are being blackmailed.

    They have been given every reason to vote against it by May and plenty of encouragement that an option they prefer is available.
  • kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Were there more people in the hall than on the platform?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    May won a number of Tory doubters on Tuesday with her renegotiated deal plan. They might feel like prize chumps for being taken in, but if it is May's Deal or No Deal, they will grimace and support her deal. May just needs some momentum towards her deal that the Times has declared "dead" on its front page today.

    If the Tories did start to coalesce behind her deal as the only realistic option, that positions Labour as owning No Deal.... At which point, abstain for second referendumers seems like the smart move.

    I agree. The WA is NOT dead. Quite the opposite, it will ultimately be ratified because TINA says so and at the end of the day you do not mess with TINA.

    It needs Labour help and, yes, I can see that coming piecemeal and informally and under duress in the way you outline. I can also see a deal whereby they offer the votes in return for the promise of a general election in April/May/June.
  • A total evisceration of the delusions of the Buccaneers. Of course, none of them will be arsed to read it. They're too lazy:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-nine-lessons-of-brexit/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.

    Reasoning?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    she INVITED the wotld to Germany. If there was an immigration problem in 2015 it became a crisis with her "wir konnen es schaffen" remarks. The only reason people were in Greece and the Balkans was they were on their way to Germany . Then she shat on Bavaria and ultimately it cost her her job.

    It was a crisis long before Merkel's intervention. You're obviously reading the wrong papers.
    gee I guess the german press got it wrong

    have you got a link to the Ecclefechan Bugle ?
    Try the Greek press. This report saying that 2,100 people had died trying to get into Europe was from August 7th, 2015.

    https://hellasjournal.com/2015/08/proidopiisi-oie-echoume-mia-prosfigiki-krisi-stin-porta-tis-evropis/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    Been there; it’s no fun.
    You have my sympathy.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Were there more people in the hall than on the platform?
    It looked like it had a reasonable attendance
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    HYUFD said:

    OT CNN Dem poll, interesting that they have numbers before and after the mid-terms. Losing didn't hurt Beto, apparently...

    Biden still well ahead. I know there's name recognition but this is a big number. Bernie still a bit meh, miscellaneous liberals (Warren, Harris) getting squeezed, support looks like it's going to Beto.

    Raw numbers here, I stopped copy-pasting at KLOBUCHAR who has SURGED 300%.

    Candidate Dec. 6-9, 2018 (Oct. 4-7, 2018)
    Former Vice President Joe Biden 30% (33%)
    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 14% (13%)
    Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 9% (4%)
    New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 5% (5%)
    California Senator Kamala Harris 4% (9%)
    Former Secretary of State John Kerry 4% (5%)
    Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 3% (8%)
    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 3% (4%)
    Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 3% (1%)

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.html

    Biden still ahead, Sanders second, nobody else double figures though O'Rourke a clear third.

    Sanders and Warren met last week apparently but both still intending to run though on those numbers Sanders may ask her to endorse him. Bloomberg nowhere still, I think he may run as an independent if the Democrats pick a populist left liberal to run against Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html

    Sanders will be aiming for early wins in Iowa, which he lost by less than 1% last time and New Hampshire which he won to get the momentum
    There will have to be a woman on the ticket; think Warren’s horse has bolted so that means Harris. Not sure where.
    Meantime, something interesting going on with the Mueller investigation:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/14/mystery-mueller-subpoena-fight-1065409

    A Christmas subpoena present for one of the Trump family ?
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I don't disagree with your analysis, but I do think that the can-kicker extraordinaire will extract a little more road down which to kick the can, from the EU. It would cost the EU nothing to give a short extension until the EU elections and they have previously said they would grant such an extension in the case of a GE or referendum. Presumably if they thought that May would use this extension to finally get the WA passed, I am sure they would be amenable.

    For this reason I would advise a saver on an April-June 2019 exit, which is currently available at 7.4 on Betfair
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited December 2018
    kinabalu said:

    May won a number of Tory doubters on Tuesday with her renegotiated deal plan. They might feel like prize chumps for being taken in, but if it is May's Deal or No Deal, they will grimace and support her deal. May just needs some momentum towards her deal that the Times has declared "dead" on its front page today.

    If the Tories did start to coalesce behind her deal as the only realistic option, that positions Labour as owning No Deal.... At which point, abstain for second referendumers seems like the smart move.

    I agree. The WA is NOT dead. Quite the opposite, it will ultimately be ratified because TINA says so and at the end of the day you do not mess with TINA.

    It needs Labour help and, yes, I can see that coming piecemeal and informally and under duress in the way you outline. I can also see a deal whereby they offer the votes in return for the promise of a general election in April/May/June.
    May might jump at the early election - before her party can replace her. The rest of the Cabinet? Not so much!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.
    A misreading. Hoey and Stringer will be voting against the Deal as they both back No Deal.

    It will be Remain backing Labour MPs in Leave seats who promised their constituents they would vote for a Deal that ended free movement like Flint, Snell and Nandy who could yet vote for the Deal given the huge threat No Deal poses to the jobs and wages and ability to get food in the shops etc of their constituents. Corbyn will not be too displeased either as if the Deal goes through the DUP no confidence the Government and we get s general election
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Nigelb said:

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    Been there; it’s no fun.
    You have my sympathy.

    Have you tried your local Facebook page? Our small town’s is an excellent source of such emergency help.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    OT CNN Dem poll, interesting that they have numbers before and after the mid-terms. Losing didn't hurt Beto, apparently...

    Biden still well ahead. I know there's name recognition but this is a big number. Bernie still a bit meh, miscellaneous liberals (Warren, Harris) getting squeezed, support looks like it's going to Beto.

    Raw numbers here, I stopped copy-pasting at KLOBUCHAR who has SURGED 300%.

    Candidate Dec. 6-9, 2018 (Oct. 4-7, 2018)
    Former Vice President Joe Biden 30% (33%)
    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 14% (13%)
    Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 9% (4%)
    New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 5% (5%)
    California Senator Kamala Harris 4% (9%)
    Former Secretary of State John Kerry 4% (5%)
    Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 3% (8%)
    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 3% (4%)
    Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 3% (1%)

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.html

    Biden still ahead, Sanders second, nobody else double figures though O'Rourke a clear third.

    Sanders and Warren met last week apparently but both still intending to run though on those numbers Sanders may ask her to endorse him. Bloomberg nowhere still, I think he may run as an independent if the Democrats pick a populist left liberal to run against Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html

    Sanders will be aiming for early wins in Iowa, which he lost by less than 1% last time and New Hampshire which he won to get the momentum
    There will have to be a woman on the ticket; think Warren’s horse has bolted so that means Harris. Not sure where.
    Sanders-Harris looks a very possible ticket at this point
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.
    Labour MPs can abstain on May's deal. Or they can own No Deal Brexit.

    Pop Quiz: What do you do?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited December 2018

    A total evisceration of the delusions of the Buccaneers. Of course, none of them will be arsed to read it. They're too lazy:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-nine-lessons-of-brexit/

    he makes some decent points

    however point 9 made me smile as its the opposite of what evry UK goverbment and mandarin has done for the last 40 years
  • kinabalu said:

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.

    Reasoning?
    Go and ask them and they will tell you. The mood in the PLP is resolute - the deal is worse than what we have now and they will not vote to make us worse off.

    Nor is TINA relevant as the alternative is rescind A50 and remain. Or postpone it for an election or a referendum. Labour MPs- with growing backing across the House especially now on Tory benches - are confident they can block hard Brexit
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.
    Labour MPs can abstain on May's deal. Or they can own No Deal Brexit.

    Pop Quiz: What do you do?
    TBH I think Labour MPs will vote against it, they don't seem like they are going to back down. If the Tories could get most of the numbers you could get a small number of Labour MPs backing it.

    I can't see Labour MPs either backing it or abstaining in large numbers.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Incidentally, @JosiasJessop , can I ask why you chose your name? As coincidence would have it I’m writing an article on the Wey & Arun Canal at the moment.

    When I first joined PB many moons back, I was rereading Hadfield's biography of William Jessop, one of my heroes. I didn't want to use my real name, and William Jessop sounded a little ordinary, so I chose that of his son instead. Josias is also much of interest for his work (as you say) on canals, and especially on the Cromford and High Peak railway.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josias_Jessop

    They are intensely fascinating characters, working as great engineers at the critical junction between canals and the first railways (or tramways). Indeed, the C&HPR is essentially a tramway built on canal principles to link two canals.

    If possible, I'd love to read your article on the Wey and Arun - I don't know that much about it, never having walked it. ;)
    I'll PM you a copy when I've finished it. It's a fascinating canal - you'd have thought a direct route from London to the South Coast would be a barnstorming success, but in reality hardly anyone ever used it. But when the restorers finish their work it'll be a slam-dunk for pleasure boating, just as the Kennet & Avon has been. My article's about a journey from London to the coast in 1867 - the first ever account of pleasure-boating on an English canal, and just four years before the canal closed.

    I always thought the C&HPR was a curious beast - as you say, a railway designed by a canal engineer. Keep meaning to head up that way with my bike and ride it...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    May might jump at the early election - before her party can replace her. The rest of the Cabinet? Not so much!

    Ah no. Election to be fought between JC and a new Tory leader, I mean. Like you say, TM would not be allowed to do the deal with Labour otherwise. So it's her last act. She secures Brexit and stands down. Tories choose their weapon and try to beat JC in the subsequent GE.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited December 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    Been there; it’s no fun.
    You have my sympathy.

    Have you tried your local Facebook page? Our small town’s is an excellent source of such emergency help.
    Also make sure it isn't the window on the floor above that's the problem; a roofer wont help with that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    BudG said:

    I don't disagree with your analysis, but I do think that the can-kicker extraordinaire will extract a little more road down which to kick the can, from the EU. It would cost the EU nothing to give a short extension until the EU elections and they have previously said they would grant such an extension in the case of a GE or referendum. Presumably if they thought that May would use this extension to finally get the WA passed, I am sure they would be amenable.

    For this reason I would advise a saver on an April-June 2019 exit, which is currently available at 7.4 on Betfair

    Thank you. Yes, I guess I can imagine that.

    Hey, you're not the one offering that 7.4 on BF, are you?

    :-)
  • ydoethur said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    The problem is we have again this Dolschtoss myth building. 'Leave won by cheating and lying!' Well, yes, they cheated and lied to a criminal extent. But unfortunately that argument is invalid because so did Remain:
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/95175/fresh-fines-remain-campaigners-after-referendum-expenses
    But it's very potent, and clearly facts are taking a holiday here among the fanatics on both sides.
    What is telling on that is the J O'B trails some digs and starts off going for his standard "get a rise, then be quicker tongued" approach. RS does not bite, so we're onto a much more pleasant Plan B Interview.
  • Mr. Borough, as someone who's been paying attention closely to that market, and maybe annoying the site with frequent updates, it's been at that level for about a week, or more. And the last movement I registered was it lengthening on Ladbrokes, just a little.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Thank you for the article.

    This is what Brexit has become:
    - an argument about the survival or not of one MP, Mrs May
    - an argument about the survival or not of one (nominally anyway) party - The Tories
    - an argument about which strategy will help Labour obtain power

    And the interests of the country? Pah! That’s a mere detail.

    Bastards: the lot of them!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2018
    kinabalu said:

    May might jump at the early election - before her party can replace her. The rest of the Cabinet? Not so much!

    Ah no. Election to be fought between JC and a new Tory leader, I mean. Like you say, TM would not be allowed to do the deal with Labour otherwise. So it's her last act. She secures Brexit and stands down. Tories choose their weapon and try to beat JC in the subsequent GE.
    May has only said she will stand down by a 2022 general election not before and she will want a mandate from voters for her Deal too.
  • HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Out of all the people that Brexit has shown to be absolute roasters, the revelation of Hoey is probably the most dramatic.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1073658564697309184
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    philiph said:

    With can kicker May in charge I think there is a risk of the date slipping. Promising and delivering a GE are not the same. What is the percentage of MPs needed under the FTPA? You can't trust either side, Corbyn may go for VONC and get a few months with rainbow support shifting a GE to 2020

    I think if the agreement is a public one it will be impossible to renege on it.

    Your other point, that JC gets in early next year without a GE, yes that is a definite risk, but I'm counting on the DUP as the block to that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    kinabalu said:

    Good article. To see the eventual outcome we must blow away the froth of a pre-Brexit GE, a referendum, negotiating a new deal, or leaving without one. The Tories cannot fight a pre-Brexit GE, only Labour might feasibly offer a referendum and they are not in power, the EU will not re-open substantive negotiations, and however sub-optimal our politicians are they are not so irresponsible as to allow us to fall out of the EU with no transition.

    This means that the WA will be ratified. It may seem impossible right now, but it will be. Furthermore, since it can only pass with Labour support, we can deduce that too. It will go through with Labour support. This support could be in the form of a number of Labour MPs cracking under the intense pressure of an imminent No Deal alternative. Or it could be that it is offered at the last gasp by Corbyn in return for the promise of a GE soon after exit day.

    I am so confident of this analysis and conclusion that I have lumped more than is sensible on each of 2 betfair markets, next GE in 2019, and that we DO leave the EU on 29/3. Odds of 2.5 in both cases, oddly enough. Hope to god I have this right otherwise I will have to sell the kids.

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.
    Labour MPs can abstain on May's deal. Or they can own No Deal Brexit.

    Pop Quiz: What do you do?
    TBH I think Labour MPs will vote against it, they don't seem like they are going to back down. If the Tories could get most of the numbers you could get a small number of Labour MPs backing it.

    I can't see Labour MPs either backing it or abstaining in large numbers.
    No, there are very few looking as if they will go against the party line.

    No one is going to give a ladder to May to escape thehole that she dug.
  • HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Out of all the people that Brexit has shown to be absolute roasters, the revelation of Hoey is probably the most dramatic.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1073658564697309184
    Eh? Who is proposing a united Ireland?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Out of all the people that Brexit has shown to be absolute roasters, the revelation of Hoey is probably the most dramatic.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1073658564697309184
    How poor must the LD candidate in Vauxhall have been for her to be returned with a 20,000 majority?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Barnesian said:

    A referendum before end 2020 is odds of 2.24 so punters don't think a referendum is "froth".

    I know! But therein lies the opportunity. Another referendum should be way longer than that IMO. I cannot see how it comes about. Perhaps the price is being driven by wishful thinking. Like England traditionally being half the price they should be for the World Cup.
  • Mr. Borough, as someone who's been paying attention closely to that market, and maybe annoying the site with frequent updates, it's been at that level for about a week, or more. And the last movement I registered was it lengthening on Ladbrokes, just a little.

    Yeh, I was pretty sure myself it hadn't moved much, but I've not been watching too closely.

    BF shows you change over time, but their x scale is unmarked and pretty hard to work out the times.
  • If Brexit was only Eexit will the bookies pay. Just can’t see Scotland going along with a hard brexit. As the UK requires Scottish legislation to join in i see this as a non starter
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
  • Mr. Borough, in Adonis' defence, he probably checks the markets less often than PB. On the other hand, he's still demonstrably wrong...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Out of all the people that Brexit has shown to be absolute roasters, the revelation of Hoey is probably the most dramatic.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1073658564697309184
    How poor must the LD candidate in Vauxhall have been for her to be returned with a 20,000 majority?
    Ha Ha Vauxhall has an MP as much UKIP as Labour now.

    Hoey won with the working class and ethnic minority vote, the middle class vote largely went LD I imagine
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Kate Hoey should be deselected, not because she backs Leave but because of her disgraceful comments last night .

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Perhaps he could discuss tactics with Tommy Robinson?
  • Mr. M, that's one of the reasons why (contrary to others here) I think Remain stands a better chance versus May's Deal than No Deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Farage though was rallying the troops for any EUref2 at the Leavers rally
  • Mr. Ace, could you elaborate upon that?

    As far as I was/am aware, this is a UK matter, not a devolved one.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    There are a couple of MPs who have seemed very angry with May and mentioned the blackmail of running down the clock. More centrist types who may find good reason to back May even against Corbyn's position. There have also been many comments about the fact May hasn't reached out to any Labour MPs. I can't read people's minds but I suspect she has made a lot of the Labour MPs angry and they feel like they are being blackmailed.

    They have been given every reason to vote against it by May and plenty of encouragement that an option they prefer is available.

    What do you think will happen with Labour then, if it does end up with a choice of ratify the WA or leave with nothing?
This discussion has been closed.