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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,167
    First.
  • Said we wouldn't leave
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,190
    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205

    Said we wouldn't leave

    Likewise.

    Looking more likely tonight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205
    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274

    Said we wouldn't leave

    Lot of water to flow under the bridge and lots of unknowns to be resolved before that happens
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,753

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,491

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,080
    Well, an anecdote for you.

    Nigel Farage's Dad is a member of one of London's finest and oldest military clubs. And he was today at that club chatting about the bloody mess his son has made of this country.

    Can things get any weirder ?

    Yes. They probably can.

    In unrelated news I have been sent an invitation by the Jewish Labour Movement (I am neither Jewish nor a Labour Party member) to hear Jess Phillips MP speak next week at one of their events which takes place at a location near me. I am quite tempted. I rather like Ms Phillips and there might be quite a lot for her to say.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Neither do I
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205
    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
    And how does that work
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    It strikes me that while the vote doesn’t really change anything legally for reasons cited by others - the vote *does* represent a nail in the coffin of No Deal.

    At least 20 Tories are prepared to defy the whip to prevent a No Deal. It’s over for No Dealers.

    Let the argument now continue between May’s Deal, another Deal (Norway plus) and Remain.

    I don't think that is right - there may be a majority against No Deal, but that doesn't mean there's a majority in favour of anything else (which has been the problem all along). That is especially the case because of the fact that the official Labour position is utter, risible nonsense, involving a ludicrous renegotiation which cannot possibly be achieved.
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    This was by no means the full extent of Conservative MPs willing to rebel to oppose a no deal Brexit. I make the total something like 50.

    At least.
    I suspect that if May actually started advocating No Deal she would be ousted immediately by her own Cabinet.

    Only 100, maybe 150 MPs would be willing to countenance it.

    I think Brexit is now likely to be resolved via Parliament voting until it gets its *least loathed* option. This is why May’s deal still stands a chance.
    The deal is not the least loathed option, that's remain. It's just a matter of justifying it to get it over the line. Probably via a referendum, but somehow.
    Maybe.
    I’d love it to be so, but not quite yet willing to believe it.



    So maybe you are right. In two weeks time, May declares to the country that the Deal has been passed, but that Parliament has insisted it be put to the country for final approval.

    I have assumed in the above that May would not - or would not be able to - opt for a No Deal or an election.
    It's easier for a Tory leader to accept No Deal, than to fight against it, because that is plainly what so many Tory voters and members want.
    That they think they want. Many will rapidly get cold feet when the consequences become real in the early spring. All push and no piss I’m afraid.
    No, they really won't. You're probably unacquainted with them.
    There will be an utterly psychotic hardcore. But I doubt the majority of Tory voters will want to willingly wreck the economy when it comes to the crunch. As I say, all push, no piss.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    @Cyclefree - thanks for a superb leader on the last thread.

    For me, the only coherent Brexit is one where Britain decides to stop pretending to play a major part in world affairs in order to preserve cultural and demographic stability. We would become a neutral state in the vein of Sweden or Switzerland. @AlastairMeeks did a thread header months or years ago setting this out. We would sell the aircraft carriers, cut the defence budget and immigration and keep ourselves to ourselves.

    There has always been a large vote for an isolationist policy, but it has been underrepresented in Parliament as few politicians want to diminish themselves. The idea that Brexit will make us rich in the short term is ludicrous. The only way you can argue there is upside is if we become Singapore on steroids, a view which can only be supported with a profound ignorance of the balance of opinion in the country at large. The most likely outcome is that it makes little medium-term difference, as technological and demographic change will be more important, and Brexiteers must accept short-term downside.

    I don’t think we’re going to leave.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Behind

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Behind Momentum and Farage’s dad?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
    And how does that work
    I don't think it happens, but as I said potentially. May lost today's votes by a smaller margin than the MPs she lost in 2017. An increased majority (or loss of power) could allow a majority for something, or alternatively a manifesto commitment could provide moral authority for something.
  • I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
    And how does that work
    I don't think it happens, but as I said potentially. May lost today's votes by a smaller margin than the MPs she lost in 2017. An increased majority (or loss of power) could allow a majority for something, or alternatively a manifesto commitment could provide moral authority for something.
    Well that is clear then !!!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    Maybe ICBINUKIP (I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP) would be better, but I thought that NUKIP (Next? New? Not?) was close enough.

    In any case the idea is clear enough, regardless of its organisational antecedents.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
    But you can't "call" an election anymore. The House has to vote for it. Or VONC and two weeks stand off time etc etc.

    There's no vote for that either as far as I can see. Certainly at the moment.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,074

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    She is our Centrist Mum saviour! She should be odds on for the next Labour leader particularly as Mr. Cooper has, in an unlikely turn of events, ascended to national treasure statue.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123
    Interestingly one point I've not seen mentioned is this dilemma is kind of Cameron/Clegg's fault in an odd way: the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

    Major lacked the numbers to get Maastricht through intact so eventually made it a confidence issue forcing his MPs to back him. May can't do that due to the FTPA. If it wasn't for the FTPA May could have under our prior constitution have made the passing of her deal a matter of confidence forcing her backbenchers hands.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Mortimer said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    Makes a general election more likely, actually.

    Could have a new finance bill then...
    Take me through that logic.
    Potentially:
    Deal's not possible.
    New deal's not possible.
    No deal's not possible.
    Revocation's not possible.

    Call an election and make something possible.
    But you can't "call" an election anymore. The House has to vote for it. Or VONC and two weeks stand off time etc etc.

    There's no vote for that either as far as I can see. Certainly at the moment.
    Of course you can call an election. May did it in 2017.

    You're right in more ways than one, the house has to vote for it, making the house's vote moot unless there is a more well hung Parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 78,571
    edited January 8
    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Nope, someone like Sir Keir Starmer or Yvette Cooper as next PM is the only way it works.

    Is attractive to many Labour MPs, stop Corbyn and Brexit.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Dura_Ace said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    She is our Centrist Mum saviour! She should be odds on for the next Labour leader particularly as Mr. Cooper has, in an unlikely turn of events, ascended to national treasure statue.
    Cooper and Balls have more talent between them than the entire Labour and Tory front benches combined.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,481
    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Yvette Cooper in cabinet alongside Amber Rudd.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,190

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
  • Anazina said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Great result for Yvette.

    Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.

    She is our Centrist Mum saviour! She should be odds on for the next Labour leader particularly as Mr. Cooper has, in an unlikely turn of events, ascended to national treasure statue.
    Cooper and Balls have more talent between them than the entire Labour and Tory front benches combined.
    HIPS would say otherwise, and as my girl Shakira said, 'HIPS don't lie'.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Extraordinary the change in the Mail’s editorial line under Greig. Completely different paper nowadays.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274
    Anazina said:


    Extraordinary the change in the Mail’s editorial line under Greig. Completely different paper nowadays.
    It is excellent and touches conservative voters but not the majority of members
  • I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Dan Hannan just retweeted me saying he has a head that looks like a cancer patient's testicle.

    Welp, there go my mentions.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Yvette Cooper in cabinet alongside Amber Rudd.
    Cooper and Rudd would make a formidable team.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Anazina said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Yvette Cooper in cabinet alongside Amber Rudd.
    Cooper and Rudd would make a formidable team.
    Sounds like a double act of 1970s fat racist comedians.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145
    edited January 8
    UK to leave the EU by 29 March has just moved from 36% to 33%. Last price on Betfair is 3.
    EDIT: now 2.98
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Yvette Cooper in cabinet alongside Amber Rudd.
    Cooper and Rudd would make a formidable team.
    Sounds like a double act of 1970s fat racist comedians.
    :smiley:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 8

    Dan Hannan just retweeted me saying he has a head that looks like a cancer patient's testicle.

    :D
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,753

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    It is impossible to predict anything at the moment but surely a Conservative government diligently trying to enact a Brexit whilst being frustrated by Parliament could possibly play out negatively for the other parties. May has been careful to repeatedly stress that she wishes to respect the result of the referendum.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,491

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    It is impossible to predict anything at the moment but surely a Conservative government diligently trying to enact a Brexit whilst being frustrated by Parliament could possibly play out negatively for the other parties. May has been careful to repeatedly stress that she wishes to respect the result of the referendum.
    If we have to fight an election this year, my absolute ideal would be for it to happen because Remain MPs frustrate Brexit.

    It will be worth the possible delay to Brexit for the 35 seat majority.

    If it would be arranged for May 2nd, all the better.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
    I don't think there are enough anti-Brexit Tory MPs who will sink May, or enough Labour MPs willing to deny Corbyn his wish for a general election by siding with Tories.

    Wouldn't pretty much all the MPs involved be ending their political careers?

    We're not living in the early 20th century with Liberal Unionist MPs, etc. The party system is too much stronger.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
    Eagles

    I think Rudd would be best placed to be PM. I would expect the likes of Cooper and Sir Keir to be ministerial appointments to any such government.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    It is impossible to predict anything at the moment but surely a Conservative government diligently trying to enact a Brexit whilst being frustrated by Parliament could possibly play out negatively for the other parties. May has been careful to repeatedly stress that she wishes to respect the result of the referendum.
    Well indeed. That is one reason why there could be another early election. Being the only grownup in the room can help.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205
    Anazina said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    I think you mean ‘Tory’ MPs voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street on a promise.
    Yvette Cooper in cabinet alongside Amber Rudd.
    Cooper and Rudd would make a formidable team.
    They might even be able run the country. As opposed to the bloody shambles we have now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,631
    edited January 8
    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    It is impossible to predict anything at the moment but surely a Conservative government diligently trying to enact a Brexit whilst being frustrated by Parliament could possibly play out negatively for the other parties. May has been careful to repeatedly stress that she wishes to respect the result of the referendum.
    If we have to fight an election this year, my absolute ideal would be for it to happen because Remain MPs frustrate Brexit.

    It will be worth the possible delay to Brexit for the 35 seat majority.

    If it would be arranged for May 2nd, all the better.
    Shades of your hubris in 2017: “oh how I am looking forward to those bongs”.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    We're not quite ready for revoking A50 yet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,481
    Mortimer said:

    If we have to fight an election this year, my absolute ideal would be for it to happen because Remain MPs frustrate Brexit.

    Have you forgotten that was the reason given for the election in 2017? How did it turn out again?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want?

    The problem is if there are approximately:

    ~300 backing revoke (after a referendum) - almost all on opposition benches
    ~215 backing deal - almost all on government benches
    ~115 backing no deal - almost all on government benches

    Then where do we go from here? MPs don't collectively want anything and the biggest support has the least support in the government.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
    I don't think there are enough anti-Brexit Tory MPs who will sink May, or enough Labour MPs willing to deny Corbyn his wish for a general election by siding with Tories.

    Wouldn't pretty much all the MPs involved be ending their political careers?

    We're not living in the early 20th century with Liberal Unionist MPs, etc. The party system is too much stronger.
    They would be national heroes, condemning the frothing europhobes and Momentumites to the wilderness.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,631

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    We're not quite ready for revoking A50 yet.
    Maybe not, in which case they could go for a referendum as a delaying tactic. But that looks really, really hard in practice.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want?

    Which is why delaying the MV was such a disastrous decision. All it did was get the government into the New Year. We cannot stare into the abyss or beyond while we still have an administration insisting it can pass the Deal on exceptionally flimsy evidence.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,170
    edited January 8

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We won’t have no deal can’t be said too often either.

    It’s May’s deal or a deal vs Remain referendum.

    If the latter, then after an A50 extension.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband. :(
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
    I don't think there are enough anti-Brexit Tory MPs who will sink May, or enough Labour MPs willing to deny Corbyn his wish for a general election by siding with Tories.

    Wouldn't pretty much all the MPs involved be ending their political careers?

    We're not living in the early 20th century with Liberal Unionist MPs, etc. The party system is too much stronger.
    The only way for defecting MPs to try to save their career would be to jump ship en-mass to the Lib Dems.

    If the Lib Dems got 12 defections from the Tories that would more than double their number, take them into the 20s giving them some momentum, deprive the Tories of their majority etc

    The defectors would have to hope any personal vote combined with the Lib Dems party machinery (what there is of it) is enough to save them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband. :(

    Your chaos wasn't bigly enough. We have the biggest chaos.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801
    Things are moving in only one direction. Rule out no deal (or at least, for now, frustrate efforts to prepare for it, on the assumption that takes it off the table), and there's no reason for wavering remainers to back the deal, which is still overwhelmingly unpopular in the Commons, and if the no deal contingent were moving in any way toward the deal in fear of losing Brexit entirely we'd have heard at least whispers of it happening.

    On this occasion I think punters are calling it right, particularly with potential if unlikely extensions. Kudos to the continuity remainers though, they have played a masterclass.

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.

    Who leads the Government of National Unity and how does it gain the support of a majority of MPs?
    Someone like Starmer, Rudd, or Cooper.

    Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.

    Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.

    When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.

    If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
    I don't think there are enough anti-Brexit Tory MPs who will sink May, or enough Labour MPs willing to deny Corbyn his wish for a general election by siding with Tories.

    Wouldn't pretty much all the MPs involved be ending their political careers?

    We're not living in the early 20th century with Liberal Unionist MPs, etc. The party system is too much stronger.
    Yes, but Brexit is Brexit. The remainer Tories will only have the chance to stop no deal once in their careers, and if they mean what they say they could not possibly stand by and let it happen when torching their own careers could stop it. Otherwise they don't actually mind no deal, not enough to risk their careers anyway.

    It's much more likely than Labour MPs seeing this through and taking the hit, because you need dozens of them to do that, and far fewer Tory MPs are needed to make that career sacrifice.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,541
    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205
    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    :lol: Yeh, right...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want?

    The problem is if there are approximately:

    ~300 backing revoke (after a referendum) - almost all on opposition benches
    ~215 backing deal - almost all on government benches
    ~115 backing no deal - almost all on government benches

    Then where do we go from here? MPs don't collectively want anything and the biggest support has the least support in the government.
    If the Deal fails, as it probably will, then you have 515 who back revoke or Deal (after a referendum). It's the only game in town - and it will have a lot of support in parliament.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Not to mention when she promised that losing 6 seats in last year's election would result in Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,753

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
    But the Tories will have not turned away from it themselves, they will have been frustrated by a small number of their own MPs and the opposition. If UKIP had held steady there could possibly be an issue. I’m not saying the party won’t implode but lots of unforeseen are possible
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,205
    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want?

    The problem is if there are approximately:

    ~300 backing revoke (after a referendum) - almost all on opposition benches
    ~215 backing deal - almost all on government benches
    ~115 backing no deal - almost all on government benches

    Then where do we go from here? MPs don't collectively want anything and the biggest support has the least support in the government.
    If the Deal fails, as it probably will, then you have 515 who back revoke or Deal (after a referendum). It's the only game in town - and it will have a lot of support in parliament.
    Nick Watt saying DUP are unhappy that briefings saying they are coming around to the Deal.

    Utter crap apparently.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145
    "Will the Deal pass in January?" on Betfair has the last price at 80!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,631
    edited January 8
    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    Anyone expecting Theresa May (or anyone else, it's not a personal failure) to be able to herd this particular bunch of cats into any vaguely coherent position is in for disappointment. It can't be done. The ERG are bonkers, Labour are entirely cynical, the DUP have an agenda which is strong on 'no surrender' but hopeless on anything else, the SNP just want to wreck, and the LibDems are the LibDems.

    Maybe, just maybe, out of the chaos something will emerge, although I'm blowed if I can see how. But if not, we leave with no deal. I don't think the betting markets - and more importantly the financial markets - have fully priced in this risk.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,481

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html

    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum. And the opinion polls show consistently that the Scottish people are more likely to be in favour of EU membership than the people of England and Wales.

    If the people of Scotland are forced to choose between the United Kingdom and the European Union we do not know what the result would be.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
    But the Tories will have not turned away from it themselves, they will have been frustrated by a small number of their own MPs and the opposition. If UKIP had held steady there could possibly be an issue. I’m not saying the party won’t implode but lots of unforeseen are possible
    Voters for whom this is a decisive issue (not me) would no longer trust the Tories to deliver though.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    In all fairness, May’s big statements usually amount to the cube root of fuck all
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801

    I guess the next step will be cabinet ministers resigning if Mrs May makes no deal official policy.

    She'll get resignations no matter what policy she adopts as plan B. As leaks continue to make abundantly clear even after all the resignations she's had the Cabinet is still completely divided on the main issue of day. I remain astounded that they still cannot agree anything together. They all know the deal is not passing (for the sake of argument let's pretend they think they might get it on a retry, but they certainly know it is not passing the first time), yet might as well live stream the Cabinet meetings to let us know what they all think of things, not in agreement either.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Anazina said:

    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    In all fairness, May’s big statements usually amount to the cube root of fuck all
    I've been crystal clear that
    N O T H I N G H A S C H A N G E D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html

    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum. And the opinion polls show consistently that the Scottish people are more likely to be in favour of EU membership than the people of England and Wales.

    If the people of Scotland are forced to choose between the United Kingdom and the European Union we do not know what the result would be.
    That doesn't technically say there would be a second referendum, just that the SNP would press for another, which they did. The SNP had a major setback though in the 2017 election which killed that off. The people of Scotland weren't forced in the end to make that choice.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Barnesian said:

    UK to leave the EU by 29 March has just moved from 36% to 33%. Last price on Betfair is 3.
    EDIT: now 2.98

    Those figures remind me of GE2015 night and EU2016 night.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    FPT:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:


    The deal is not the least loathed option, that's remain. It's just a matter of justifying it to get it over the line. Probably via a referendum, but somehow.

    Maybe.
    I’d love it to be so, but not quite yet willing to believe it.

    Mind you, it does look like in less than two weeks, May will have lost her vote but won a VONC. Corbyn’s surprisingly well-whipped Labour Party will then commit to a Referendum.

    So for her Deal to win, May will need the ERGers. I agree that she will never carry some of them, meaning the maximum she can muster is probably somewhere around 275.

    She will therefore have to choose between conceding a Remain/Deal referendum to get her deal through (which I think is a Lib Dem amendment), or extending further for a Deal which might be won. But it’s not clear there is any other Deal able to conmand a majority, except one that May might find totally unpalatable (Norway+).

    So maybe you are right. In two weeks time, May declares to the country that the Deal has been passed, but that Parliament has insisted it be put to the country for final approval.

    I have assumed in the above that May would not - or would not be able to - opt for a No Deal or an election.
    It's easier for a Tory leader to accept No Deal, than to fight against it, because that is plainly what so many Tory voters and members want.
    I simply don’t believe Theresa May would go for it, and I don’t believe her own Party in Parliament would go for it.

    If I’m wrong, May will go down in infamy.
    But I don’t think I am.
    It would be incredibly irresponsible, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    Still the same conversation as earlier.... oh well!

    As far as Mrs May walking us off the Brexit cliff - I could see her doing it and claiming that she has to follow the biggest ever mandate in the UK's history. Recall her social skills and empathetic abilities and then ask yourself what is the likely outcome?

    Brexit means Brexit!
    Sorry Beverley, been down the pub.

    I'll be quiet.
    Why? I refuse to be quiet. I expect others to follow my lead ;)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145

    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    :lol: Yeh, right...
    "But sources also said she did acknowledge she would have to “swiftly” lay out the next steps if her deal is voted down and promised to make an immediate statement to the Commons."

    The Sun tomorrow.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8150405/cabinet-brexit-chaos-theresa-may-michael-gove/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
    But the Tories will have not turned away from it themselves, they will have been frustrated by a small number of their own MPs and the opposition. If UKIP had held steady there could possibly be an issue. I’m not saying the party won’t implode but lots of unforeseen are possible
    Voters for whom this is a decisive issue (not me) would no longer trust the Tories to deliver though.
    I wouldn't trust them to boil an egg right now. Mostly because not only would some be screaming at each other about having it hard or soft, others would be trying to smash the uncooked eggs and others just sitting there blubbering about how they didn't want eggs in the first place.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 850
    What's been so interesting about Brexit is that for ages now literally every possibility has seemed as unlikely and impossible as all other options, but one of them must be the thing that ACTUALLY happens.

    Unless the Universe plans to fold itself up into 13 dimensional space and then vanish in a puff of smoke on the 28th March.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    Do you know. I wouldn't put another delay on the vote past them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801
    In other words, leaving is hard and we must always remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,277
    edited January 8
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,665
    edited January 8

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    Behind Labour and NUKIP I presume.
    Tory Party would divide in two and form the basis of the new party more than UKIP does.
    It is impossible to predict anything at the moment but surely a Conservative government diligently trying to enact a Brexit whilst being frustrated by Parliament could possibly play out negatively for the other parties. May has been careful to repeatedly stress that she wishes to respect the result of the referendum.
    Yup, if she's "forced" to agree a referendum by parliament I think the Tories will come out in one piece. If Remain wins then UKIP or similar will be back, but they'll take from Lab as well as Con. And if Leave wins then nobody will hold it against her that she allowed the referendum on the way to their ultimate destination.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801

    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want?

    The problem is if there are approximately:

    ~300 backing revoke (after a referendum) - almost all on opposition benches
    ~215 backing deal - almost all on government benches
    ~115 backing no deal - almost all on government benches

    Then where do we go from here? MPs don't collectively want anything and the biggest support has the least support in the government.
    If the Deal fails, as it probably will, then you have 515 who back revoke or Deal (after a referendum). It's the only game in town - and it will have a lot of support in parliament.
    Nick Watt saying DUP are unhappy that briefings saying they are coming around to the Deal.

    Utter crap apparently.
    I must have missed reports on those briefings. What could possibly induce them to come around at this point? They've set out an impossible demand of legally binding changes to the WA, there's no way for them to reverse position on that.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
    But the Tories will have not turned away from it themselves, they will have been frustrated by a small number of their own MPs and the opposition. If UKIP had held steady there could possibly be an issue. I’m not saying the party won’t implode but lots of unforeseen are possible
    Voters for whom this is a decisive issue (not me) would no longer trust the Tories to deliver though.
    I certainly no longer trust them whether they deliver or not. Their actions to date have damaged them beyond redemption as far as I am concerned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,801

    What's been so interesting about Brexit is that for ages now literally every possibility has seemed as unlikely and impossible as all other options, but one of them must be the thing that ACTUALLY happens.

    Unless the Universe plans to fold itself up into 13 dimensional space and then vanish in a puff of smoke on the 28th March.

    I hope so, I got good odds on that outcome on Betfair.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:



    I must have missed reports on those briefings. What could possibly induce them to come around at this point? They've set out an impossible demand of legally binding changes to the WA, there's no way for them to reverse position on that.

    There were a few vague briefings that the "mood was changing" over Christmas, but I don't think anyone paid them the slightest attention because they were obvious stupid lies and we all got distratced by Grayling's Omnishambolic Yuletide Bonanza.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 850
    dixiedean said:

    Do you know. I wouldn't put another delay on the vote past them.

    It's going to be that, isn't it.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Have the betting markets got this right? Admittedly. logic, economic reality, common sense, national interest etc all point towards us not leaving the EU in chaos in less than 12 weeks' time. But how, starting from here, do logic, economic reality, common sense, and the national interest prevent MPs from leading us into that chaos by refusing to take the one, simple and available step which would avoid it?

    It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.

    We are heading for "uncharted waters". Although I believe the PM has promised her cabinet that she will make an immediate statement about Plan B if she loses the vote next Tuesday.
    :lol: Yeh, right...
    "But sources also said she did acknowledge she would have to “swiftly” lay out the next steps if her deal is voted down and promised to make an immediate statement to the Commons."

    The Sun tomorrow.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8150405/cabinet-brexit-chaos-theresa-may-michael-gove/
    More on the Gove swinging story.

    https://goo.gl/images/b6Shfg
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,145
    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    UK to leave the EU by 29 March has just moved from 36% to 33%. Last price on Betfair is 3.
    EDIT: now 2.98

    Those figures remind me of GE2015 night and EU2016 night.
    Do you have a spreadsheet?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    What's been so interesting about Brexit is that for ages now literally every possibility has seemed as unlikely and impossible as all other options, but one of them must be the thing that ACTUALLY happens.

    Unless the Universe plans to fold itself up into 13 dimensional space and then vanish in a puff of smoke on the 28th March.

    I hope so, I got good odds on that outcome on Betfair.
    Finally some good news.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Third, like Tories at the next election if we don't Brexit......

    I don't follow your logic.
    The Tories will be broken by not delivering Brexit. Their support base will fracture, their foot soldiers will turn their back, as will many councillors. Tories will face an aggressive NUKIP/Anti-establishment Party threat, which will attract a significant portion of those foot soldiers. (I expect it will also attract significant support from former Labour voters too.)
    But the Tories will have not turned away from it themselves, they will have been frustrated by a small number of their own MPs and the opposition. If UKIP had held steady there could possibly be an issue. I’m not saying the party won’t implode but lots of unforeseen are possible
    Voters for whom this is a decisive issue (not me) would no longer trust the Tories to deliver though.
    I certainly no longer trust them whether they deliver or not. Their actions to date have damaged them beyond redemption as far as I am concerned.
    That's because you're a die-hard remainer.

    If they lose both the die-hard remainers and the die-hard leavers then that leaves a massive proportion of the population who won't vote for them.
This discussion has been closed.