Without even reading the small print I assume the saboteur is Grieve, in which case it is hardly a secret plot is it? He would do anything to stop Brexit, nobody would dispute that would they?
Without even reading the small print I assume the saboteur is Grieve, in which case it is hardly a secret plot is it? He would do anything to stop Brexit, nobody would dispute that would they?
In fairness while I agree with many of his points since I too support just passing the deal already given the assumption that things will come around again and something which currently lacks a majority may get one later, it is hardly unreasonable on the same basis to accept a second referendum lacks a majority but might get one later is it?
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
89 is the 24th prime following 83 and preceding 97.a Chen prime.a Pythagorean prime.
What a brilliant age for a Mathematician to die.
The smallest Sophie Germain Prime to start a Cunningham chain of the first kind of six terms, {89, 179, 359, 719, 1439, 2879}.an Eisenstein prime with no imaginary part and real part of the form 3n − 1.
Well chosen Sir Michael
Mathematicians never die, Mr Owls, they just stop adding.
There is a degree to which Mathematicians care about truth (roughly 100%), and they also care about accuracy and attribution.
I'm sure that Mr BJOwls will carefully clarify his sources soon.
HP, Daddies, Chop and occasionally Heinz
I take that as a concession that you have quoted blindly from other sources.
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
I thought the point was that Parliament (only) voting on the nature of the deal wasn't a people's vote?
89 is the 24th prime following 83 and preceding 97.a Chen prime.a Pythagorean prime.
What a brilliant age for a Mathematician to die.
The smallest Sophie Germain Prime to start a Cunningham chain of the first kind of six terms, {89, 179, 359, 719, 1439, 2879}.an Eisenstein prime with no imaginary part and real part of the form 3n − 1.
Well chosen Sir Michael
Mathematicians never die, Mr Owls, they just stop adding.
There is a degree to which Mathematicians care about truth (roughly 100%), and they also care about accuracy and attribution.
I'm sure that Mr BJOwls will carefully clarify his sources soon.
HP, Daddies, Chop and occasionally Heinz
I take that as a concession that you have quoted blindly from other sources.
BJO needs to ketchup with his sources if he wants to cut the mustard.
I see Major, who I have a lot of time for, is going for the 'pretend revoking A50 will be a 'timeout' rather than an ending' tactic. Look, if no deal and the deal are terrible, just have the guts to say let us call it all off, I feel like some remainers are trying to reverse salami slice their way to that position.
And the Commons seizing control from May is pretty funny, both from the idea that May has much control right now, but more about the idea May is the main problem. She's aggravated plenty around this issue, but the fundamental problems are around parliamentary arithmetic not being behind specific issues enough, and/or people still pursuing options whose time really has come and gone already. May's handling of everything has been woeful, but she's not the root cause of the problems here.
I think the issue with Brexit, and why the wound really won't heal for a very long time is that it's largely a proxy for greater problems we're utterly divided as to the solution to, namely how we cope in a world where there are fewer certainties and less control. For some, it is to 'take back control' within the nation state - the thing that unites anti-immigrant nationalists, free marketeer Brexit supporters and Lexiteers is their faith in withdrawing from the international status quo to pursue their preferred path. For others, the only way to survive and thrive is to thrust ourselves outward and reform and renew supranational institutions that, although flawed, are a bulwark against disasters, are generally engines of prosperity and the only way of tackling issues that can't be tackled by one country.
I think the divide is a values based one, so expect a degree of polarisation similar to the US culture war. It is likely to persist for the forseable, and to dominate politics. The WA is the beginning of this battle, not its end.
At its heart Brexit and other forms of Populist Nationalism in the world are controversies over how a nation conceives itself. There are 3 overlapping circles in the venn diagram:
1) Those of national ethnicity 2) Those of non-national ethnicity, but subscribing to national culture and values, however defined. 3) Those who have legal permanent residency or citizenship, but are not of national ethnic group and who have fundamentally diferrent values, often with roots in other cultures.
Increasngly these three circles are no longer congruent in Britain, but also in France, USA, Australia, Scandanavia and indeed a number of other countries across the world. Whether we resolve those incongruencies by excluding others or by becoming more inclusive in assimilation is the fundamental divide between Leavers and Remainers, and also between similar divisions in other countries.
There’s also an important aspect of the rate of change.
Leavers like organic progression while Remainers believe that society can be changed by politicians to accommodate an objective.
There’s nothing organic about revolutionary nationalism.
I see Major, who I have a lot of time for, is going for the 'pretend revoking A50 will be a 'timeout' rather than an ending' tactic. Look, if no deal and the deal are terrible, just have the guts to say let us call it all off, I feel like some remainers are trying to reverse salami slice their way to that position.
And the Commons seizing control from May is pretty funny, both from the idea that May has much control right now, but more about the idea May is the main problem. She's aggravated plenty around this issue, but the fundamental problems are around parliamentary arithmetic not being behind specific issues enough, and/or people still pursuing options whose time really has come and gone already. May's handling of everything has been woeful, but she's not the root cause of the problems here.
Labour MPs have been told to prepare for Jeremy Corbyn to table a dramatic and immediate vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a general election if – as expected – she suffers a heavy defeat this week on her Brexit deal.
To accomplish what? If the deal falls, he hasn't the numbers to pass one. If it passes, he doesn't want one.
Given that Labour's stated policy (and Corbyn's stated aim) is to have a General Election, maybe he thought he couldn't put it off any longer? Time is running out for one to be held and a new Government formed before March 29th.
What he does if he loses, God alone knows. He'll come under enormous pressure to back a second referendum, but he still can't force that through - or ask for an A50 extension - without having control of the Government as well as a Parliamentary majority.
Perhaps the plan is to get himself into Downing St by forcing the Conservative Party to split, but that's tremendously risky:
1. It might well not work at all. A wet centrist Tory splinter group is liable to be wiped out when next held accountable at the ballot box 2. If it does, I don't see how his administration survives beyond the immediate settlement of Brexit. It would rest on an unstable coalition of multiple factions including the aforementioned centre-Right defectors, and would have no mandate to govern 3. I doubt if he'll get EU assent for any second referendum vote other than Deal vs Remain, so that's a substantial minority of Labour voters who backed Leave liable to be disappointed 4. Will the EU be interested in reopening negotiations to permit a revised WA? It may well not be, in which case he'll have to advance a Deal that Labour has specifically rejected as useless as an option in his referendum; if not, then his cakeist renegotiation strategy will be exposed as a sham, as I doubt that either the EU or Parliament will settle for any alternative other than Norway+CU 5. Whatever the outcome of this process, he's then going to have to contest a General Election later in 2019 as the standard bearer of Remain, against a new Tory leader who may well be able to harness the Brexit betrayal narrative. A swathe of Labour seats in strong Leave-voting areas could potentially be at risk as a result 6. Conversely, he could rely on a pro-EU centre-right party made up of the Tory rebels to strip votes from the Conservative Party, but I suspect that the electoral appeal of such a party (even if it were to be formed in the first place) would be very small 7. If the Tories do as well or better in 2019 as they did in 2017, then Corbyn will have lost a second successive General Election and put back Labour's return to power to 2024 at the earliest
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
I thought the point was that Parliament (only) voting on the nature of the deal wasn't a people's vote?
I'm sure that's what they say they mean, but that's part of the point of its silliness, since while it has been very effective branding the name just begs the comparison with the first referendum and thus invites the dismissal (not least because a great deal of the justification for the second vote is based on saying people were duped in the first, or at the least did not understand, and thus about undermining the first vote - again begging to make a comparison between the imperfect first vote, and a perfect 'people's vote'). Final say avoids that, albeit raising the counter of why should this one be final.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
It's pretty much the scenario I outlined a few weeks back - a cross-party majority seizing the agenda from May. I envisaged it as a temporary but formal 'one job' government, but the route of forming a 'majority' of backbenchers would sidestep the problems of formal leadership, at least in the short term. However the PM would surely have to resign in such circumstances, leading to a position without a government, and maybe the flaw in the backbenchers plan is that no business is likely to progress whilst there isn't one.
Edit/ there is also the risk that the anti-government majorities so far have been extremely narrow, and they couldn't afford to lose more than a few MPs unhappy with such a drastic plan before it fails to carry.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
It has been game over for TM since she lost her majority but she is still in place - write her off at your peril
If she gets out of this with the UK leaving the EU by the 29th of March with a negotiated deal hats off to her, will be one of the finest pieces of political work in our generation.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
It is for both (oddly enough I think Brexit effectively is over before May), but there'll be much noise and fury before that is confirmed. Even the focus on May herself is just another displacement activity, just like many in parliament wanting to pass the buck to the people rather than do what most of its members clearly want to do.
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
I thought the point was that Parliament (only) voting on the nature of the deal wasn't a people's vote?
I'm sure that's what they say they mean, but that's part of the point of its silliness, since while it has been very effective branding the name just begs the comparison with the first referendum and thus invites the dismissal (not least because a great deal of the justification for the second vote is based on saying people were duped in the first, or at the least did not understand, and thus about undermining the first vote - again begging to make a comparison between the imperfect first vote, and a perfect 'people's vote'). Final say avoids that, albeit raising the counter of why should this one be final.
The justification is that so far people have had no say on what Brexit actually might look like.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
Can't fault Julian Castro's media team this weekend: Politico, 538, the Telegraph and now even pb. Most likely there will be two dozen Democrats throwing their hats into the ring, just like there were for the Republicans last time. JC: initials to vote for!
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
I thought the point was that Parliament (only) voting on the nature of the deal wasn't a people's vote?
I'm sure that's what thhould this one be final.
The justification is that so far people have had no say on what Brexit actually might look like.
I wasn't saying the idea of a second vote is in itself a bad one. I back it very reluctantly because I think parliament is failing in its job to agree something. I just happen to think the name, while effective, is bloody stupid, and Final Say slightly less stupid. And people did have a say on what Brexit might look like, since that was how the 2017 GE was framed. Yes people will vote for many reasons, but the parties set out how they would approach Brexit. As self fulfulling as it is I don't think there's a good reason for a second referendum other than that parliament is proving inadequate to do it's job and decide something.
And I say that, unlike most of its supporters, even though I think a second referendum would result in an outcome I do not want. Most of the narrative of it is focused on that people have changed their minds, and so it is not about people having a say on what Brexit they want, it is because they want a rerun. If it weren't, different reasoning would be used.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
Oh absolutely, an emergency administration like that will inevitably lead to a General Election. I was really interested in the implication for the two major parties - will this result in one or both undergoing a formal split?
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
Surely one of the reasons such a split is so hard is that if one side does, the other cleaves more tightly together, since now they are almost certain to be in power and internally justify not splitting on the basis best to be on the inside pissing out?
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
As for Labour, the prospect of power will keep them together. If we Remain there's not that many leavers in their ranks and those that are must really like their other policies so are not going anyway. If we leave then as long as Labour are not blamed more than the Tories where are people going to go? The LDs, and let in whatever is left of the Tories? I won't hold my breath.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
Oh absolutely, an emergency administration like that will inevitably lead to a General Election. I was really interested in the implication for the two major parties - will this result in one or both undergoing a formal split?
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
Oh absolutely, an emergency administration like that will inevitably lead to a General Election. I was really interested in the implication for the two major parties - will this result in one or both undergoing a formal split?
As I have been saying, the WhatsApp party is real, is organised, and is in charge
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
So if the Conservatives split but Labour holds together then I guess it's all down to the size of the Tory split. If it's just Grieve and a few of the other hardcore troublemakers then the bulk of the party can spend the ensuing GE campaign burning the rebels in effigy and deploying the betrayal narrative against both them and Labour. If the Tories split in half then they might as well save us all the bother and form a circular firing squad.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
This strengthens her in the country, Standing up as the only one who wants to honour the referendum.
The voters don't seem to enthusiastically consider the deal to be honouring the referendum. Or they don't care. Remain has held firm, and leave has split, it's as simple as that when not enough MPs are going to do what May wants. Unless the trickle of new supporters of the deal has become a flood and no one reported it, it truly is almost over. No deal is being squeezed out as an option, a GE doesn't resolve anything, and the deal is too damaged to pass.
The Commons already knows it wants to remain, it just hasn't gotten to the point of acknowledging that yet, but it is getting there - hence suggestions like revoking 'for now' so that we remain, but with a pinky swear promise to do it properly again. Then it is about needing to think about it more, and that maybe positions need to change, and next thing you know Brexit is officially abandoned.
May still has the pulpit. She will decide what happens after the Vote loses on Tuesday.
If she decides to pursue a “No Deal” then, yes, she will ousted by what amounts to a “temporary government of national unity”.
If she decides on a referendum, then I think she could pass her bill. However I don’t think she has the gall to perform such an about-turn.
What I suspect then is that she will basically hand over to Parliament to pass the amendments it sees fit.
She will basically forfeit the right at this point to manage the government vote. Brexit will be determined by whichever flavour can carry the most support in what will amount to a series of free votes. That may be include a referendum, a commitment to a single market, permanent customs union or even all of the above.
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?
To accomplish what? If the deal falls, he hasn't the numbers to pass one. If it passes, he doesn't want one.
Given that Labour's stated policy (and Corbyn's stated aim) is to have a General Election, maybe he thought he couldn't put it off any longer? Time is running out for one to be held and a new Government formed before March 29th.
What he does if he loses, God alone knows. He'll come under enormous pressure to back a second referendum, but he still can't force that through - or ask for an A50 extension - without having control of the Government as well as a Parliamentary majority.
Perhaps the plan is to get himself into Downing St by forcing the Conservative Party to split, but that's tremendously risky:
1. It might well not work at all. A wet centrist Tory splinter group is liable to be wiped out when next held accountable at the ballot box 2. If it does, I don't see how his administration survives beyond the immediate settlement of Brexit. It would rest on an unstable coalition of multiple factions including the aforementioned centre-Right defectors, and would have no mandate to govern 3. I doubt if he'll get EU assent for any second referendum vote other than Deal vs Remain, so that's a substantial minority of Labour voters who backed Leave liable to be disappointed 4. Will the EU be interested in reopening negotiations to permit a revised WA? It may well not be, in which case he'll have to advance a Deal that Labour has specifically rejected as useless as an option in his referendum; if not, then his cakeist renegotiation strategy will be exposed as a sham, as I doubt that either the EU or Parliament will settle for any alternative other than Norway+CU 5. Whatever the outcome of this process, he's then going to have to contest a General Election later in 2019 as the standard bearer of Remain, against a new Tory leader who may well be able to harness the Brexit betrayal narrative. A swathe of Labour seats in strong Leave-voting areas could potentially be at risk as a result 6. Conversely, he could rely on a pro-EU centre-right party made up of the Tory rebels to strip votes from the Conservative Party, but I suspect that the electoral appeal of such a party (even if it were to be formed in the first place) would be very small 7. If the Tories do as well or better in 2019 as they did in 2017, then Corbyn will have lost a second successive General Election and put back Labour's return to power to 2024 at the earliest
You’re forgetting that Corbyn picked up 20% last time so that means he will get 60% next time ;-)
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
So if the Conservatives split but Labour holds together then I guess it's all down to the size of the Tory split. If it's just Grieve and a few of the other hardcore troublemakers then the bulk of the party can spend the ensuing GE campaign burning the rebels in effigy and deploying the betrayal narrative against both them and Labour. If the Tories split in half then they might as well save us all the bother and form a circular firing squad.
We are not going to split in anything like half.
If 20 Tory MPs betray the party, they will take a maximum of 10,000 activists with them. Not a single one of the MPs would return to Parliament at the next General Election.
Giving the British public a Final Say on Brexit through a new referendum is the most popular path if Theresa May‘s deal is rejected by MPs, a new poll has revealed.
An exclusive survey for The Independent shows that a fresh vote received more support than any of the four other options put to the public, including allowing the prime minister to go back to Brussels or a no-deal Brexit.
The survey by poling organisation BMG Research also suggests that more people oppose Ms May’s deal than back it, although the prime minister can take some comfort in the data showing a softening of opposition.
Incidentally, while it is not without silliness, 'Final Say' is a better name than 'People's vote'. At least it might be a final say on this issue (so long as the correct answer is given), while all votes are peoples' votes.
I thought the point was that Parliament (only) voting on the nature of the deal wasn't a people's vote?
I'm sure that's what they say they mean, but that's part of the point of its silliness, since while it has been very effective branding the name just begs the comparison with the first referendum and thus invites the dismissal (not least because a great deal of the justification for the second vote is based on saying people were duped in the first, or at the least did not understand, and thus about undermining the first vote - again begging to make a comparison between the imperfect first vote, and a perfect 'people's vote'). Final say avoids that, albeit raising the counter of why should this one be final.
The justification is that so far people have had no say on what Brexit actually might look like.
Given polling evidence, once can argue it is undemocratic that parliament has not been able to vote on a second referendum so far. Hopefully they get a chance to do so in the next two weeks.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
It has been game over for TM since she lost her majority but she is still in place - write her off at your peril
Yes, but all careers end at some point, just a question of which political landmine gets her.
Also, who on earth would want to take on this poisoned chalice over these next three months
A fair enough point. Corbyn has to at least say he would of course, it's part of the job. Which is one reason I can even see a way that May is still there even as Brexit is unravelled. Sure, mass resignations from Cabinet making her trying certain things impossible etc etc, but if she essentially responds to the Commons by saying 'fine, we'll do whatever you want' and she does whatever governments need to do to bring things to votes, then the ascendant remains even against most of the Tory party might see it through.
But I'd put no deal at slightly better chances than remain, just because remain still requires more steps.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
The ‘little people’ want Remain too. This is not ‘the people’ vs ‘the establishment’.
So next weekend Rudd PM, Cooper in the FO and Vince for Chancellor?
Given it would just be a single issue government to revoke A50, presumably, and then a GE, I don't even seen the point in filling vacancies in the departments.
No we're not. It's going to be a lot of very rehearsed tosh, magic wishes, and people insincerely claiming they are 'reluctantly' backing all sort of things which are their preferred options, be they no deal, referendum or just remain.
I am more “optimistic” than most about the Tory party.
It managed to survive the transition from 2016 (Cameron leading a pro-Remain referendum) to 2017 (May promising a hard Brexit). I’m don’t see a massive split.
Especially if May basically washes her hands on Tuesday and leaves it to Parliament to decide. In that instance, there won’t actually be a government policy to split on.
However, I do expect May’s successor to be a Hard Brexiter and so perhaps long term some of the Remainer types will be driven out.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
My wife and I have just renewed our passports as they lapse in July and we need to register with our cruise company for our september cruise. I did it online, it was quick and efficient, but we lost the period to july 19. The renewal date being January 2029
And I am happy with our burgundy passports, who needs blue !!!
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
So if the Conservatives split but Labour holds together then I guess it's all down to the size of the Tory split. If it's just Grieve and a few of the other hardcore troublemakers then the bulk of the party can spend the ensuing GE campaign burning the rebels in effigy and deploying the betrayal narrative against both them and Labour. If the Tories split in half then they might as well save us all the bother and form a circular firing squad.
We are not going to split in anything like half.
If 20 Tory MPs betray the party, they will take a maximum of 10,000 activists with them. Not a single one of the MPs would return to Parliament at the next General Election.
Yes, the split the Tory's can survive is the pro-EU lot leaving. The spilt they can not survive is the leavers leaving. They would then be a poor persons imitation of the lib dems.
I am more “optimistic” than most about the Tory party.
It managed to survive the transition from 2016 (Cameron leading a pro-Remain referendum) to 2017 (May promising a hard Brexit). I’m don’t see a massive split.
Especially if May basically washes her hands on Tuesday and leaves it to Parliament to decide. In that instance, there won’t actually be a government policy to split on.
However, I do expect May’s successor to be a Hard Brexiter and so perhaps long term some of the Remainer types will be driven out.
If the Labour centrists can stick with Corbyn then most Tories will stay Tory
Given polling evidence, once can argue it is undemocratic that parliament has not been able to vote on a second referendum so far. Hopefully they get a chance to do so in the next two weeks.
A second referendum would be hugely divisive and by no means definitive. It relies on scenarios which imply a General Election later in the year, one of the main contenders in which could very well be a Conservative Party with a Brexiteer leader and manifesto, and a decent chance of winning.
A referendum requires 50%+1 for the winning option. A GE, as we know from 2005, can be won outright on not much more than a third of the vote, if the circumstances are right.
May still has the pulpit. She will decide what happens after the Vote loses on Tuesday.
If she decides to pursue a “No Deal” then, yes, she will ousted by what amounts to a “temporary government of national unity”.
If she decides on a referendum, then I think she could pass her bill. However I don’t think she has the gall to perform such an about-turn.
What I suspect then is that she will basically hand over to Parliament to pass the amendments it sees fit.
She will basically forfeit the right at this point to manage the government vote. Brexit will be determined by whichever flavour can carry the most support in what will amount to a series of free votes. That may be include a referendum, a commitment to a single market, permanent customs union or even all of the above.
I agree with your last paragraph and if she remains in post she will be carrying out the will of the HOC
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
So both the ST and the MoS have this story. How convenient.
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.
I am more “optimistic” than most about the Tory party.
It managed to survive the transition from 2016 (Cameron leading a pro-Remain referendum) to 2017 (May promising a hard Brexit). I’m don’t see a massive split.
Especially if May basically washes her hands on Tuesday and leaves it to Parliament to decide. In that instance, there won’t actually be a government policy to split on.
However, I do expect May’s successor to be a Hard Brexiter and so perhaps long term some of the Remainer types will be driven out.
If the Labour centrists can stick with Corbyn then most Tories will stay Tory
Maybe, but there does seem to be a difference in my opinion. There was a lot of disquiet in Labour ranks about Corbyn, but then again part of that at least was based around assuming he'd lead them to disaster, which he didn't. Tory remainers have been more vocal about being willing to quit the party if, say, BoJo were to become leader. And while Labour centrists clearly disagree with Corbyn on so many things, do they truly have the level of visceral hatred some parts of the Tories have for one another?
From my vantage point Labour seem to have calmed down (yes, in part because Brexit has dominated everything) and are merely not enthused about what Corbyn might do as leader or how good a PM he would be. The Tories embarrass themselves on almost daily basis with their internal sniping and contempt.
In fairness while I agree with many of his points since I too support just passing the deal already given the assumption that things will come around again and something which currently lacks a majority may get one later, it is hardly unreasonable on the same basis to accept a second referendum lacks a majority but might get one later is it?
A second referendum is more likely to gain a majority in the Commons because many loyal Tory MPs have warned the ERG nutters that if they vote against the deal - in an attempt to force no deal - then they will support a second referendum to avoid no deal (so presumably a deal vs Remain referendum).
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
So both the ST and the MoS have this story. How convenient.
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.
So both the ST and the MoS have this story. How convenient.
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.
Well, quite. The numbers against are simply huge, and this is well known information, so how is it a sufficient pretext for those who are against the deal but at least potentially persuadable to switch?
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
Best amend that to 'call for a new election' before the "she doesn't have the power to do that" comments begin
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
Best amend that to 'call for a new election' before the "she doesn't have the power to do that" comments begin
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
I am sympathetic to people wanting to improve their lives (who wouldn't be?) But they are working off seriously false assumptions if they think Brexit will do that for them.
So, yes, it is wrong to applaud people when you know they are making a big mistake.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
So in order to avoid No Deal, MPs are going to reject May's Deal (the only one the EU seems prepared to offer ATM) - which will lead to, er, No Deal??
No, if it gets to that point then (this round of) the game probably ends with revocation. There might yet be an attempt at a second referendum, but there's not enough time to push one through without an A50 extension and it's probably less trouble for MPs simply to revoke (because Remain is what they really want anyway) than to spend months going through a sham referendum offering Remain vs either the May Deal that they've explicitly rejected, or some even softer product of a renegotiation.
After that we get the General Election, which could be as bad or worse than a referendum campaign but has the advantage of being to some degree definitive, at least into the medium term. Either the Conservatives - who would presumably have shed the Grieve-Soubry wing by this point - would be able to form a Government, in which case we would Brexit, or Labour would be in charge in which case we wouldn't.
Beyond that, if the Tories do split *AND* this only involves the sloughing off of the pro-EU ultras, then one assumes that they'll avoid a collapse in the polls and finally be captured, definitively, by the Brexit cause? In which case, is it just a matter of time before Britain finally leaves the EU? Even if they were to fight and lose a GE this year under such circumstances, it would, presumably, just be a matter of waiting for however long it takes for voters to tire of a Labour-led Government?
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
I think you got that wrong there - CCHQ are less good at listening
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
I'm sorry but I obviously didn't make clear that the opinion that the working class are the 'little people' and don't know any better is the view of the author of the article (note the inverted commas) not me. I find it as unacceptable in the working class as I do Rees Mogg. I remember the working class mobs that used to follow Enoch Powell and the same excuses were made
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
I see Major, who I have a lot of time for, is going for the 'pretend revoking A50 will be a 'timeout' rather than an ending' tactic. Look, if no deal and the deal are terrible, just have the guts to say let us call it all off, I feel like some remainers are trying to reverse salami slice their way to that position.
And the Commons seizing control from May is pretty funny, both from the idea that May has much control right now, but more about the idea May is the main problem. She's aggravated plenty around this issue, but the fundamental problems are around parliamentary arithmetic not being behind specific issues enough, and/or people still pursuing options whose time really has come and gone already. May's handling of everything has been woeful, but she's not the root cause of the problems here.
Currently this is true, but it works in the following hypothetical case: 1) There's some option with the votes in parliament to get out of the treacle, most obviously a binding Deal vs Remain Referendum 2) TMay won't go for it
The hitch is that although Deal vs Remain almost certainly has enough votes if reluctantly proposed by TMay and voted on with a Conservative whip, it's not clear that it would have enough votes if proposed by the Government of Shadowy Select Committee Chairpeople.
Also if there's a (1) I doubt there will be a (2), because TMay wants to be in office, and out of the treacle.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
It’ll be over man. People are sick of it.
Remainers are sick of it.....
Nah. Even people who voted leave are sick of it, out in the real world.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
It’ll be over man. People are sick of it.
Remainers are sick of it.....
Nah. Even people who voted leave are sick of it, out in the real world.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
All part of the theatre we must go through next week. Not that tabling such a vote is not justified in that circumstance, even if reports of a record defeat of 200+ are not borne out in the end. But since the deal won't have been passed and possibly no plan B announced by May yet the DUP would presumably still support the government and the ultra remainers and ultra brexiteers not have any reason to contemplate their career suicide by backing it at that point. So the vote is defeated, things string along for a day or two as everyone starts yelling about their unicorns.
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
It’ll be over man. People are sick of it.
Remainers are sick of it.....
Nah. Even people who voted leave are sick of it, out in the real world.
As I say - wishful thinking
What do you expect to happen? A few bigots in yellow jackets without jobs shouting at MPs at Westminster?
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
It’ll be over man. People are sick of it.
Remainers are sick of it.....
Nah. Even people who voted leave are sick of it, out in the real world.
As I say - wishful thinking
Some leavers have changed their minds, albeit not many. More leavers are disappointed by what has happened. Some leavers are sick of it. I'd not bother again if Brexit is stopped. What would be the point? Just a lot of pointless anger and aggravation.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2019/jan/12/brexit-remainer-leave-voters-labour-northern-people
And the Commons seizing control from May is pretty funny, both from the idea that May has much control right now, but more about the idea May is the main problem. She's aggravated plenty around this issue, but the fundamental problems are around parliamentary arithmetic not being behind specific issues enough, and/or people still pursuing options whose time really has come and gone already. May's handling of everything has been woeful, but she's not the root cause of the problems here.
First Brexit now this.
Remember you heard it here first.
What he does if he loses, God alone knows. He'll come under enormous pressure to back a second referendum, but he still can't force that through - or ask for an A50 extension - without having control of the Government as well as a Parliamentary majority.
Perhaps the plan is to get himself into Downing St by forcing the Conservative Party to split, but that's tremendously risky:
1. It might well not work at all. A wet centrist Tory splinter group is liable to be wiped out when next held accountable at the ballot box
2. If it does, I don't see how his administration survives beyond the immediate settlement of Brexit. It would rest on an unstable coalition of multiple factions including the aforementioned centre-Right defectors, and would have no mandate to govern
3. I doubt if he'll get EU assent for any second referendum vote other than Deal vs Remain, so that's a substantial minority of Labour voters who backed Leave liable to be disappointed
4. Will the EU be interested in reopening negotiations to permit a revised WA? It may well not be, in which case he'll have to advance a Deal that Labour has specifically rejected as useless as an option in his referendum; if not, then his cakeist renegotiation strategy will be exposed as a sham, as I doubt that either the EU or Parliament will settle for any alternative other than Norway+CU
5. Whatever the outcome of this process, he's then going to have to contest a General Election later in 2019 as the standard bearer of Remain, against a new Tory leader who may well be able to harness the Brexit betrayal narrative. A swathe of Labour seats in strong Leave-voting areas could potentially be at risk as a result
6. Conversely, he could rely on a pro-EU centre-right party made up of the Tory rebels to strip votes from the Conservative Party, but I suspect that the electoral appeal of such a party (even if it were to be formed in the first place) would be very small
7. If the Tories do as well or better in 2019 as they did in 2017, then Corbyn will have lost a second successive General Election and put back Labour's return to power to 2024 at the earliest
Edit/ there is also the risk that the anti-government majorities so far have been extremely narrow, and they couldn't afford to lose more than a few MPs unhappy with such a drastic plan before it fails to carry.
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And I say that, unlike most of its supporters, even though I think a second referendum would result in an outcome I do not want. Most of the narrative of it is focused on that people have changed their minds, and so it is not about people having a say on what Brexit they want, it is because they want a rerun. If it weren't, different reasoning would be used.
I’m not sure you should be celebrating temporary national unity!
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
As for Labour, the prospect of power will keep them together. If we Remain there's not that many leavers in their ranks and those that are must really like their other policies so are not going anyway. If we leave then as long as Labour are not blamed more than the Tories where are people going to go? The LDs, and let in whatever is left of the Tories? I won't hold my breath.
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
I have no idea whether TM will resign on tuesday evening or be in post as we leave on the 29th March with an enhanced reputation
Also, who on earth would want to take on this poisoned chalice over these next three months
The Commons already knows it wants to remain, it just hasn't gotten to the point of acknowledging that yet, but it is getting there - hence suggestions like revoking 'for now' so that we remain, but with a pinky swear promise to do it properly again. Then it is about needing to think about it more, and that maybe positions need to change, and next thing you know Brexit is officially abandoned.
If she decides to pursue a “No Deal” then, yes, she will ousted by what amounts to a “temporary government of national unity”.
If she decides on a referendum, then I think she could pass her bill. However I don’t think she has the gall to perform such an about-turn.
What I suspect then is that she will basically hand over to Parliament to pass the amendments it sees fit.
She will basically forfeit the right at this point to manage the government vote. Brexit will be determined by whichever flavour can carry the most support in what will amount to a series of free votes. That may be include a referendum, a commitment to a single market, permanent customs union or even all of the above.
If 20 Tory MPs betray the party, they will take a maximum of 10,000 activists with them. Not a single one of the MPs would return to Parliament at the next General Election.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
But I'd put no deal at slightly better chances than remain, just because remain still requires more steps.
A deal I put at about 1% chance.
It is Michael Gove's former leadership campaign manager who is part of the coup.
We are in for an interesting week.
It managed to survive the transition from 2016 (Cameron leading a pro-Remain referendum) to 2017 (May promising a hard Brexit). I’m don’t see a massive split.
Especially if May basically washes her hands on Tuesday and leaves it to Parliament to decide. In that instance, there won’t actually be a government policy to split on.
However, I do expect May’s successor to be a Hard Brexiter and so perhaps long term some of the Remainer types will be driven out.
We all agree that Piers Morgan is a bell end.
That's how the unity begins.
And I am happy with our burgundy passports, who needs blue !!!
A referendum requires 50%+1 for the winning option. A GE, as we know from 2005, can be won outright on not much more than a third of the vote, if the circumstances are right.
And that is fine by me
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.
From my vantage point Labour seem to have calmed down (yes, in part because Brexit has dominated everything) and are merely not enthused about what Corbyn might do as leader or how good a PM he would be. The Tories embarrass themselves on almost daily basis with their internal sniping and contempt.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
So, yes, it is wrong to applaud people when you know they are making a big mistake.
After that we get the General Election, which could be as bad or worse than a referendum campaign but has the advantage of being to some degree definitive, at least into the medium term. Either the Conservatives - who would presumably have shed the Grieve-Soubry wing by this point - would be able to form a Government, in which case we would Brexit, or Labour would be in charge in which case we wouldn't.
Beyond that, if the Tories do split *AND* this only involves the sloughing off of the pro-EU ultras, then one assumes that they'll avoid a collapse in the polls and finally be captured, definitively, by the Brexit cause? In which case, is it just a matter of time before Britain finally leaves the EU? Even if they were to fight and lose a GE this year under such circumstances, it would, presumably, just be a matter of waiting for however long it takes for voters to tire of a Labour-led Government?
[or did you mean CCHQ?]
1) There's some option with the votes in parliament to get out of the treacle, most obviously a binding Deal vs Remain Referendum
2) TMay won't go for it
The hitch is that although Deal vs Remain almost certainly has enough votes if reluctantly proposed by TMay and voted on with a Conservative whip, it's not clear that it would have enough votes if proposed by the Government of Shadowy Select Committee Chairpeople.
Also if there's a (1) I doubt there will be a (2), because TMay wants to be in office, and out of the treacle.