Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
By that act we remain and it is all over
Not over by a long way.
It is if A50 is revoked. How that happens is another matter
So both the ST and the MoS have this story. How convenient.
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.
That's how it looks to me - the source is clearly in the loyalist part of the Cabinet. Like you I wouldn't have thought that it's very plausible or that it would shake many ERGers.
Incidentally, the BMG figure of 12% for LibDems and 5% for Greens does seem to show some movement to explicitly Remain parties. A bit ironical as the Greens were anti-EU at the same time that Corbyn was, and for the same reasons.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
It should not concern him. He clearly believes that fighting Brexit, no matter what, is what he must do. All that remains to be seen is, if May does not pivot to a second referendum, will Grieve do what he must and vote with the opposition to bring down the government. I know people say no Tories would, but Grieve cares so much about Remaining, fanatically so, would he truly not take that step if that is what it took to remain?
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendum
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
But May has said she won't lead the Tories in the next GE. The new Tory leader might have other ideas.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexit
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
It should not concern him. He clearly believes that fighting Brexit, no matter what, is what he must do. All that remains to be seen is, if May does not pivot to a second referendum, will Grieve do what he must and vote with the opposition to bring down the government. I know people say no Tories would, but Grieve cares so much about Remaining, fanatically so, would he truly not take that step if that is what it took to remain?
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendum
I can’t see Jeremy U-Turning on this, it is agreed party policy.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
Of course, a second referendum could only be held under circumstances which would imply a General Election taking place soon afterwards. So Jeremy would get his General Election.
However, said General Election would also function as a de facto third referendum, which would render the outcome of the second referendum academic.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexit
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Conservatives want to get rid of Grieve as their candidate, that is their prerogative.
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
And the Remainers wrecking their own Government will allow the Brexiteers to gain control of the party. They risk winning the battle but losing the war (or, perhaps more accurately, winning this war but losing the next one?)
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendum
I can’t see Jeremy U-Turning on this, it is agreed party policy.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Constitueny want to get rid of Grieve, that is their prerogative.
I suppose it isn’t. But if Grieve is expelled from the Party it’s not going to cow him, is it? More power to him, he is Taking Back Control.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
He wants brexit, always has
He can only do that by backing Mays deal. He cannot do that, politically, ergo he has no choice but to back a referendum. And if he truly wants to leave he will have to hope it wins.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
Parliament will never revoke but they may repeat the referendum and get a different result.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexit
You’re sounding a bit Daily Mail, to be honest.
I am proud to be a mail reader and fully support the new editor pro TM deal and anti ERG and no deal
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
That is a good post Roger.
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.
Parliament will never revoke but they may repeat the referendum and get a different result.
They would be guaranteed a different result because the choices offered would be Remain or Not-Quite-Remain. But it would resolve nothing.
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early election
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versa
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Uncharacteristically snide.
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Constitueny want to get rid of Grieve, that is their prerogative.
I suppose it isn’t. But if Grieve is expelled from the Party it’s not going to cow him, is it? More power to him, he is Taking Back Control.
I'm just trying to keep you honest, Gardenwalker.
After all, you laud praise on Grieve for "doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest."
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
He wants brexit, always has
He can only do that by backing Mays deal. He cannot do that, politically, ergo he has no choice but to back a referendum. And if he truly wants to leave he will have to hope it wins.
I think you will find he has a choice and backing a second referendum will not be one of them
It would set alight great swathes of his leave voting areas handing many seats to the conservatives, hence why 18 labour mps have stated their opposition to such a vote
A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
But May has said she won't lead the Tories in the next GE. The new Tory leader might have other ideas.
Not quite. She has said she won't lead them into a 2022 election. But she conspicuously refused to rule out leading them in a snap election if one should take place before then. ConservativeHome noted this at the time:
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
I make Con+DUP a majority of 12, once we take into account the absence of Mr Speaker and Sinn Fein from the reckoning. So if everybody else turns up then 13 abstentions or 7 outright defections are needed to topple the Government.
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
I make Con+DUP a majority of 12, once we take into account the absence of Mr Speaker and Sinn Fein from the reckoning. So if everybody else turns up then 13 abstentions or 7 outright defections are needed to topple the Government.
It's a majority of 13 actually - because one Con deputy speaker + two Lab deputy speakers don't vote either.
Then there is Lady Hermon - if she is with Govt (and do we know that for sure?) then Govt maj up to 15.
Finally there are now six Independent Lab MPs not taking the whip - are they all guaranteed to vote against Govt? Bear in mind a GE means they lose their job + £75k salary + generous expenses now rather than in 2022. Will some be tempted to stay away? Could Woodcock even vote with Govt (he pledged at 2017 GE not to vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street)?
Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such vote
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?
Of course, a second referendum could only be held under circumstances which would imply a General Election taking place soon afterwards. So Jeremy would get his General Election.
However, said General Election would also function as a de facto third referendum, which would render the outcome of the second referendum academic.
This is all such a mess.
I don't see why the government couldn't hold the referendum (with the excuse that parliament made them do it) then go on and on, to 2022 then, if Jeremy Corbyn's health holds up, 2027.
The main risk is that the DUP pulls the plug, but they're still getting money, and a new election removes their influence, so where's the upside? Alternatively it's possible that some of the ERG would break away and form their own party, but the voters would mostly be sick of Brexit, and even Farage never managed to win a seat under FPTP, so why risk immediate career destruction?
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.
Government of temporary National Unity.
Remember you heard it here first.
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.
By that act we remain and it is all over
Not over by a long way.
It is if A50 is revoked. How that happens is another matter
Again not over - you may wish it so - but no way will people just shrug their shoulders and say - oh ok.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality. Of course the mess that is Brexit will continue to rumble in the background for many years, perhaps until the next EU referendum, but there is a lot of other politics to be done, and (as we saw at the 2017 election) the traditional divisions are still the norm.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the gammon and the racists after B-day. Most of them will still be angry, obviously, since that's their default setting (and Brexit will change very little really) but the rest of us will feel somewhat emboldened as we go about attempting to re-educate them: they've got what they said they wanted, now they can learn how to behave.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
You and I know that none of that is going to happen.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
You and I know that none of that is going to happen.
I agree it's unlikely - certainly at this stage - but the question is how far does he push things?
If he makes the entire business of Govt impossible then I think reasonable that PM considers some kind of response.
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
There's always a goodly proportion of small-minded MPs. Look at the Boundary Review - implementing it would make it more likely that there will be a Tory government, but a large number of Tory MPs put their own careers first.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
If Bercow helps Corbyn into Downing Street, he will be duly rewarded. Corbyn likes to give his obedient friends nice trinkets when they do what they are told.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?
If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
So if the Conservatives split but Labour holds together then I guess it's all down to the size of the Tory split. If it's just Grieve and a few of the other hardcore troublemakers then the bulk of the party can spend the ensuing GE campaign burning the rebels in effigy and deploying the betrayal narrative against both them and Labour. If the Tories split in half then they might as well save us all the bother and form a circular firing squad.
We are not going to split in anything like half.
If 20 Tory MPs betray the party, they will take a maximum of 10,000 activists with them. Not a single one of the MPs would return to Parliament at the next General Election.
Yes, the split the Tory's can survive is the pro-EU lot leaving. The spilt they can not survive is the leavers leaving. They would then be a poor persons imitation of the lib dems.
The troublesome minority in the Tory party can exert influence only in this parliament, and only in a limited set of circs. Which is why I doubt any vote against the Govt in a VONC. By doing so they throw away their own influence.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?
if we crash out then we’d be subject to the Schengen rule that you need at least six months’ validity remaining on your passport to enter. At present you can enter Schengen ok any unexpired EU passport.
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality.
There's no "normal" any longer. Brexit is just the opening salvo in a Trump style culture war.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
That would not be so much tough, as toothless petulance. And in any event such things are in her gist only while she remains in office.
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality.
There's no "normal" any longer. Brexit is just the opening salvo in a Trump style culture war.
I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?
if we crash out then we’d be subject to the Schengen rule that you need at least six months’ validity remaining on your passport to enter. At present you can enter Schengen ok any unexpired EU passport.
The UK and Ireland only require your passport to be valid for the duration of your stay for all visitors - you can stay right until the expiry date.
So I assume we would reciprocate and move to six months for non Irish EU/EEA passport holders (and keep the same for the rest of the world) - although the Schengen area could of course decide to adopt a different approach for UK passport holders if it wished.
Of course any sensible person would renew well in advance of six months as many countries across the world enforce the six month rule.
Comments
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
However, said General Election would also function as a de facto third referendum, which would render the outcome of the second referendum academic.
This is all such a mess.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Conservatives want to get rid of Grieve as their candidate, that is their prerogative.
But if Grieve is expelled from the Party it’s not going to cow him, is it? More power to him, he is Taking Back Control.
That is my politics
After all, you laud praise on Grieve for "doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest."
https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/1084207760730927105?s=21
But... Caroline Lucas as the face of the 2nd ref vote.
It would set alight great swathes of his leave voting areas handing many seats to the conservatives, hence why 18 labour mps have stated their opposition to such a vote
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/two-pledges-to-mps-helped-may-over-the-line-yesterday-but-now-she-must-fulfil-them.html
Uhhhh..... *screws up eyes really tight** ........
Con 317 + DUP10 + Lady Hermon, minus dep speaker: 327
All the rest, minus 2 deps: 312
So 15 Tory rebels abstaining for a draw, and then Bercow voting for Labour.
Although if you're going to abstain, surely you'd go full nuclear and vote against?
Have a good nights rest folks
Next week is going to be a roller coaster
Good night
Then there is Lady Hermon - if she is with Govt (and do we know that for sure?) then Govt maj up to 15.
Finally there are now six Independent Lab MPs not taking the whip - are they all guaranteed to vote against Govt? Bear in mind a GE means they lose their job + £75k salary + generous expenses now rather than in 2022. Will some be tempted to stay away? Could Woodcock even vote with Govt (he pledged at 2017 GE not to vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street)?
The main risk is that the DUP pulls the plug, but they're still getting money, and a new election removes their influence, so where's the upside? Alternatively it's possible that some of the ERG would break away and form their own party, but the voters would mostly be sick of Brexit, and even Farage never managed to win a seat under FPTP, so why risk immediate career destruction?
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1084157236044353536?s=21
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality. Of course the mess that is Brexit will continue to rumble in the background for many years, perhaps until the next EU referendum, but there is a lot of other politics to be done, and (as we saw at the 2017 election) the traditional divisions are still the norm.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the gammon and the racists after B-day. Most of them will still be angry, obviously, since that's their default setting (and Brexit will change very little really) but the rest of us will feel somewhat emboldened as we go about attempting to re-educate them: they've got what they said they wanted, now they can learn how to behave.
If he makes the entire business of Govt impossible then I think reasonable that PM considers some kind of response.
Good justification to delay the vote IMHO.
The government are trying to impose a hard brexit, a no-deal brexit!
The solution is simple!
Next week, we will defeat Theresa May's deal!
And in any event such things are in her gist only while she remains in office.
So I assume we would reciprocate and move to six months for non Irish EU/EEA passport holders (and keep the same for the rest of the world) - although the Schengen area could of course decide to adopt a different approach for UK passport holders if it wished.
Of course any sensible person would renew well in advance of six months as many countries across the world enforce the six month rule.