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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

For most of the modern era Italy has been treated as something of a lightweight in world affairs despite being one of the world’s largest economies. This has often been on the back of weak and unpredictable government which has stopped Italy taking a wider role.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    You seem to be assuming TMay wouldn't let parliament pass a deal vs remain referendum. I don't know how you'd know that - nobody seems to know what TMay will do if/when her deal is defeated. I'm not sure TMay knows.

    If there's a referendum and Remain wins then she can rule until 2027.

    At this stage one can obviously be certain of practically nothing. However, I very much doubt if Parliament, following the anticipated crushing defeat for the Deal, would try to put it to the people.
    Yes that would be silly, but absent parliament manning up (and womanning up) and just Remaining as the largest group within it clearly wants to do, what else would go up against remain in a referendum? It would by even more hypocritical and pointless to include no deal. I don't see that other Brexit options have the justification of inclusion a the deal, given the whinging that people did not know what they were voting for last time, and they would be springing options before the public which only anoraks will be clear about.
    They might simply make the referendum about revoking Brexit.
    But that would mean tacitly accepting no deal if it were to not work. They claim that cannot be risked. Ergo the remainers need something up against remain. If they were bold enough to just ask for revocation or not they'd also be bold enough to not wait for a referendum to do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    Secondo!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Happy Constitutional Crisis week!

    I hope Santa Grieve gets you all something nice.
  • There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.

    Not without violating the Vienna Convention.
    Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Yes indeed. Political union across Europe is a pipe dream. Of all the reasons advanced for Britain to leave the EU, the avoidance of being sucked into that is one of the weakest.
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    But it makes for great campaigning being able to show all those dishonest Remain politicians saying there would be no second referendum. Writes the script for Leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    I mean, referendums are hardly ever a one-time thing. Electorates change, politicians change, minds change, circumstances change, and yet somehow we expect the outcome of a referendum to be static for all eternity?

    If you believe that of any referendum, especially on a contentious topic in a divided nation, you are a gullibe twat and deserve everything you get.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,768
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    You seem to be assuming TMay wouldn't let parliament pass a deal vs remain referendum. I don't know how you'd know that - nobody seems to know what TMay will do if/when her deal is defeated. I'm not sure TMay knows.

    If there's a referendum and Remain wins then she can rule until 2027.

    At this stage one can obviously be certain of practically nothing. However, I very much doubt if Parliament, following the anticipated crushing defeat for the Deal, would try to put it to the people.
    Yes that would be silly, but absent parliament manning up (and womanning up) and just Remaining as the largest group within it clearly wants to do, what else would go up against remain in a referendum? It would by even more hypocritical and pointless to include no deal. I don't see that other Brexit options have the justification of inclusion a the deal, given the whinging that people did not know what they were voting for last time, and they would be springing options before the public which only anoraks will be clear about.
    They might simply make the referendum about revoking Brexit.
    But that would mean tacitly accepting no deal if it were to not work. They claim that cannot be risked. Ergo the remainers need something up against remain. If they were bold enough to just ask for revocation or not they'd also be bold enough to not wait for a referendum to do it.
    Remain v Remain and join the Euro.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    But it makes for great campaigning being able to show all those dishonest Remain politicians saying there would be no second referendum. Writes the script for Leave.
    To some extent. But since some leavers are dispirited, and some very prominent ones say the deal is worse than remaining, pointing out the intention was the last time would be the only vote may not be as effective as hoped, when very very few people of substance, including presumably many VoteLeave veterans, will be enthusiastically pushing the deal (which I presume to be the most likely option to be up again remain).
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Another interesting article, Mr. Brooke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    I mean, referendums are hardly ever a one-time thing. Electorates change, politicians change, minds change, circumstances change, and yet somehow we expect the outcome of a referendum to be static for all eternity?
    That's why there's nothign illegitimate about having another one, although many pushing it are too obviously of the type who never had any intention of every letting the first one sit.
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    You seem to be assuming TMay wouldn't let parliament pass a deal vs remain referendum. I don't know how you'd know that - nobody seems to know what TMay will do if/when her deal is defeated. I'm not sure TMay knows.

    If there's a referendum and Remain wins then she can rule until 2027.

    At this stage one can obviously be certain of practically nothing. However, I very much doubt if Parliament, following the anticipated crushing defeat for the Deal, would try to put it to the people.
    Yes that would be silly, but absent parliament manning up (and womanning up) and just Remaining as the largest group within it clearly wants to do, what else would go up against remain in a referendum? It would by even more hypocritical and pointless to include no deal. I don't see that other Brexit options have the justification of inclusion a the deal, given the whinging that people did not know what they were voting for last time, and they would be springing options before the public which only anoraks will be clear about.
    They might simply make the referendum about revoking Brexit.
    But that would mean tacitly accepting no deal if it were to not work. They claim that cannot be risked. Ergo the remainers need something up against remain. If they were bold enough to just ask for revocation or not they'd also be bold enough to not wait for a referendum to do it.
    Remain v Remain and join the Euro.
    Might as well.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Remain vs Remain and Boris Johnson gets fired into the Sun.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Nice to read an optimistic and non-sneery take on Italy. One thing they do need to start doing, however, is upping their fiscal revenues. Tax evasion has long been a national sport over there - perhaps due the feeling of disconnect between citizens and government. Italians are poor at paying their taxes and the weak and inefficient state is poor at collecting them. Result is a national debt that has been running at an eye-watering percentage of GDP for decades now, and please note since long before the lira was subsumed into the euro. The Italian government bond market is huge - great for traders, not so great for the long term health of the Italian economy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    kinabalu said:

    Nice to read an optimistic and non-sneery take on Italy. One thing they do need to start doing, however, is upping their fiscal revenues. Tax evasion has long been a national sport over there - perhaps due the feeling of disconnect between citizens and government. Italians are poor at paying their taxes and the weak and inefficient state is poor at collecting them. Result is a national debt that has been running at an eye-watering percentage of GDP for decades now, and please note since long before the lira was subsumed into the euro. The Italian government bond market is huge - great for traders, not so great for the long term health of the Italian economy.

    Wise words.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    I mean, referendums are hardly ever a one-time thing. Electorates change, politicians change, minds change, circumstances change, and yet somehow we expect the outcome of a referendum to be static for all eternity?

    If you believe that of any referendum, especially on a contentious topic in a divided nation, you are a gullibe twat and deserve everything you get.

    There is surely a reasonable middle ground between (i) static for all eternity and (ii) less than 3 years.

    How about 43 years?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kinabalu said:

    Nice to read an optimistic and non-sneery take on Italy. One thing they do need to start doing, however, is upping their fiscal revenues. Tax evasion has long been a national sport over there - perhaps due the feeling of disconnect between citizens and government. Italians are poor at paying their taxes and the weak and inefficient state is poor at collecting them. Result is a national debt that has been running at an eye-watering percentage of GDP for decades now, and please note since long before the lira was subsumed into the euro. The Italian government bond market is huge - great for traders, not so great for the long term health of the Italian economy.

    According to the OECD the tax take as a percentage of GDP is 42% in Italy.
    The average for OECD countries is 34%.

    Bloody Italians not paying their taxes.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited January 2019

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    As you say current polls easily show the EPP as the largest party post this year's EU elections - on 177 seats - albeit down by nearly 50. So Manfred Weber will almost certainly be the new President. The Socialists also drop sharply but clearly remain in second place.

    The ENF group on this polling increases in size from 40 to 60 - presumably due to Lega in Italy, and the ECR drops by over 20 seats due to the departure of the British conservatives. The UKIP/Five star EFDD group will presumably disappear as it will be unviable so 5 star will need to find new allies. And the other groups barely change - albeit the Liberals might go up a bit if En Marche join with them.

    So while there will more populists the parliament will still be controlled by the EPP backed up by the socialists and Liberals sharing the jobs.

    https://www.politico.eu/interactive/european-elections-2019-poll-of-polls/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    Though if Alanbrooke is right, the balance of power is changing - perhaps sufficiently to change all that, were the UK to remain a member.

  • There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833

    There still hasn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited January 2019

    There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    There still hasn't.

    A few words too many there I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,768
    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    As you say current polls easily show the EPP as the largest party post this year's EU elections - on 177 seats - albeit down by nearly 50. So Manfred Weber will almost certainly be the new President. The Socialists also drop sharply but clearly remain in second place.

    The ENF group on this polling increases in size from 40 to 60 - presumably due to Lega in Italy, and the ECR drops by over 20 seats due to the departure of the British conservatives. The UKIP/Five star EFDD group will presumably disappear as it will be unviable so 5 star will need to find new allies. And the other groups barely change - albeit the Liberals might go up a bit if En Marche join with them.

    So while there will more populists the parliament will still be controlled by the EPP backed up by the socialists and Liberals sharing the jobs.

    https://www.politico.eu/interactive/european-elections-2019-poll-of-polls/
    I'd expect Fidesz to switch to ECR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    kinabalu said:

    Nice to read an optimistic and non-sneery take on Italy. One thing they do need to start doing, however, is upping their fiscal revenues. Tax evasion has long been a national sport over there - perhaps due the feeling of disconnect between citizens and government. Italians are poor at paying their taxes and the weak and inefficient state is poor at collecting them. Result is a national debt that has been running at an eye-watering percentage of GDP for decades now, and please note since long before the lira was subsumed into the euro. The Italian government bond market is huge - great for traders, not so great for the long term health of the Italian economy.

    According to the OECD the tax take as a percentage of GDP is 42% in Italy.
    The average for OECD countries is 34%.

    Bloody Italians not paying their taxes.
    GDP isn’t a particularly reliable yardstick, though.
    Ireland’s for example has been artificially elevated so much in recent years that their debt to GDP has fallen from well over 100% to somewhere in the 60s, without any great improvement in their debt position.
    Conversely, no one really has good figures on Italy’s grey/black economy.

    Nonetheless, those figures are instructive.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited January 2019

    There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833

    There still hasn't.

    Who knows his intervention might swing a couple more votes for Mrs May's deal!! Nothing wrong with a bit of straight talking - that is surely part of the JD of being a football manager.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    Though if Alanbrooke is right, the balance of power is changing - perhaps sufficiently to change all that, were the UK to remain a member.

    I very much doubt it. Most EU countries (all except us?) elect their national Parliaments by PR. They're well-used to circling the wagons against radical challengers. Whilst it is theoretically possible that the non-centrist parties might gain a truly pan-European ascendancy one day - as per the situation in Italy - the likelihood of this occurring looks remote for the foreseeable future.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    But it makes for great campaigning being able to show all those dishonest Remain politicians saying there would be no second referendum. Writes the script for Leave.
    So you have mentally conceded there will be another vote.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    As you say current polls easily show the EPP as the largest party post this year's EU elections - on 177 seats - albeit down by nearly 50. So Manfred Weber will almost certainly be the new President. The Socialists also drop sharply but clearly remain in second place.

    The ENF group on this polling increases in size from 40 to 60 - presumably due to Lega in Italy, and the ECR drops by over 20 seats due to the departure of the British conservatives. The UKIP/Five star EFDD group will presumably disappear as it will be unviable so 5 star will need to find new allies. And the other groups barely change - albeit the Liberals might go up a bit if En Marche join with them.

    So while there will more populists the parliament will still be controlled by the EPP backed up by the socialists and Liberals sharing the jobs.

    https://www.politico.eu/interactive/european-elections-2019-poll-of-polls/
    I'd expect Fidesz to switch to ECR.
    Probably makes sense - as they link up with the Polish law and justice, Sweden Democrats and other right wing parties. Once the UK Tories leave the ECR will take a shift rightwards - or should I say assuming the UK Tories don't have MEPs post May!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    I think the conclusion of this piece about Salvini’s aims is wrong. This movement reflects the growing emergence of a European demos. The irony is that it is driven by people ostensibly hostile to Brussels.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    According to the OECD the tax take as a percentage of GDP is 42% in Italy.
    The average for OECD countries is 34%.

    Bloody Italians not paying their taxes.

    :-) ... Perhaps they are getting on top of it a little better these days.

    But the historical data does I think indicate that Italy has long been well below the mean of Western European countries on this metric.

    The issue being not the headline tax rates but the gap between what ought to be collected and what is collected.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Thank you @Alanbrooke for a couple of very informative thread headers.

    Next week, Hungary?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I think the conclusion of this piece about Salvini’s aims is wrong. This movement reflects the growing emergence of a European demos. The irony is that it is driven by people ostensibly hostile to Brussels.

    A European people united in their opposition to the European project.

    I do hope so.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think the conclusion of this piece about Salvini’s aims is wrong. This movement reflects the growing emergence of a European demos. The irony is that it is driven by people ostensibly hostile to Brussels.

    If there were any sign of a European demos forming then we'd already be getting some indication that people wanted a common Government and were prepared to consider the necessary structural reform and pooling of resources to make the Euro work. There is no such thing.

    Co-operation between these various right-leaning parties is all about trying to bring the European institutions to heel, surely? I don't think we're going to see the declaration of the Polish-Italian Commonwealth any time soon.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.

    Not without violating the Vienna Convention.
    Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.
    If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:
    http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
  • I've no idea why the Guardian never makes any money....

    Guardian readers have been opening their weekend paper to find supplements wrapped in a compostable material made from potato starch. The paper says it ditched its polythene covers after feedback from readers.

    Advice on the wrapping says it should not be recycled but disposed of on a compost heap or in a food waste bin.

    The change, which the Guardian says will increase its production costs, has been introduced in London, Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46849937
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833

    There still hasn't.

    Ah, the voice of outward looking global Britain!

    The reason that Brexit is floundering is rooted in the mixed motives of the Brexit coalition, the protectionist nativists like warnock, and the freewheeling globalists. Does anyone think Warnock cares about trade agreements? or indeed trade at all! Yet his is the voice that we hear in the shops, cafes and hospital waiting rooms.
  • kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    I've no idea why the Guardian never makes any money....

    Guardian readers have been opening their weekend paper to find supplements wrapped in a compostable material made from potato starch. The paper says it ditched its polythene covers after feedback from readers.

    Advice on the wrapping says it should not be recycled but disposed of on a compost heap or in a food waste bin.

    The change, which the Guardian says will increase its production costs, has been introduced in London, Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46849937

    Sounds good to me! Future generations will be baffled that we used valuable crude oil to make throwaway packaging.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    Though if Alanbrooke is right, the balance of power is changing - perhaps sufficiently to change all that, were the UK to remain a member.

    I very much doubt it. Most EU countries (all except us?) elect their national Parliaments by PR. They're well-used to circling the wagons against radical challengers. Whilst it is theoretically possible that the non-centrist parties might gain a truly pan-European ascendancy one day - as per the situation in Italy - the likelihood of this occurring looks remote for the foreseeable future.
    Thats a fair summary. The eurosceptic right dependent on which country has a ceiling between 20-30%. Thats big enough to be a blocking minority, but not big enough to take over the reins. The traditional parties have played on this to keep the populists out of government. The Italians have called this bluff by the two populists extremes cooperating. Whether this can br replicated in the EU remains to be seen, But there is a large populist left in Europe which often gets overlooked. If like Italy the natural opponents agree a ceasefire to arrange affairs more to their tastes it could get interesting.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council president. Whether the national leaders would be happy to allow EU politicians to have such vast personal mandates though, far in excess of their own, is doubtful.

    I think the national leaders are happy to have EU leaders be relatively unknown functionaries. And that creates a tension between wanting the EU to be more democratic, and not wanting an EU demos to elect people who don't do what they're told.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    I think the conclusion of this piece about Salvini’s aims is wrong. This movement reflects the growing emergence of a European demos. The irony is that it is driven by people ostensibly hostile to Brussels.

    for Europhiles Id agree, the creation of an opposition, gives more legitimacy to EU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Nigelb said:

    GDP isn’t a particularly reliable yardstick, though.
    Ireland’s for example has been artificially elevated so much in recent years that their debt to GDP has fallen from well over 100% to somewhere in the 60s, without any great improvement in their debt position.
    Conversely, no one really has good figures on Italy’s grey/black economy.

    Nonetheless, those figures are instructive.

    Italy's off the books economy is estimated to be approximately 20% of GDP. How reliable that is, I don't know. I guess, by definition, not particularly. Still, far bigger than in most other European countries, that is safe to say.

    What would be interesting is to know the split on black economy in any particular country between (i) the legal apart from the tax evasion aspect (construction, driving, catering etc) and (ii) the activities which are illegal, e.g. vice and drugs.

    Because for (i) the problem is missing tax revenue, whereas with (ii) it is wider than that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Foxy said:

    There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833

    There still hasn't.

    Ah, the voice of outward looking global Britain!

    The reason that Brexit is floundering is rooted in the mixed motives of the Brexit coalition, the protectionist nativists like warnock, and the freewheeling globalists. Does anyone think Warnock cares about trade agreements? or indeed trade at all! Yet his is the voice that we hear in the shops, cafes and hospital waiting rooms.
    I suppose he's not worried about footballers getting work permits, given their salaries.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council president. Whether the national leaders would be happy to allow EU politicians to have such vast personal mandates though, far in excess of their own, is doubtful.

    I think the national leaders are happy to have EU leaders be relatively unknown functionaries. And that creates a tension between wanting the EU to be more democratic, and not wanting an EU demos to elect people who don't do what they're told.

    I agree on both points - I think that's really a good idea, and the national governments mostly don't want it for the reason you say.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Foxy said:

    There hasn't been enough thoughtful Brexit commentary from the football community.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833

    There still hasn't.

    Ah, the voice of outward looking global Britain!

    The reason that Brexit is floundering is rooted in the mixed motives of the Brexit coalition, the protectionist nativists like warnock, and the freewheeling globalists. Does anyone think Warnock cares about trade agreements? or indeed trade at all! Yet his is the voice that we hear in the shops, cafes and hospital waiting rooms.
    A Yorkshireman in Cardiff - which perhaps unsurprisingly in view of its international heritage voted 60-40 to remain - saying "To hell with the rest of the world."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited January 2019
    Chris said:

    There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.

    Not without violating the Vienna Convention.
    Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.
    If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:
    http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
    Point 70 of the ECJ Judgement tells us that "the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, .... was taken into account in the preparatory work for the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe."

    It is cited as a reference point - not that it is binding law on the UK in this context.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    There still hasn't.

    Warnock coming out for Hard Brexit was a blow, I freely admit. He moves the needle.

    But thankfully countered by the equally influential Jamie Carragher throwing himself behind the People's Vote.

    A high scoring draw.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Very enjoyable threads again, Mr A.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
    Euro army.

    Tax harmonisation.

    That's where it's headed.

    And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kyf_100 said:


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
    Euro army.

    Tax harmonisation.

    That's where it's headed.

    And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
    Given that your side is doomed to lose a second referendum, is your plan to ensure a super-mandate for future integration?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Salvini, Orbán and Kaczyński appear to be teaming up to undermine the EU. Leaving aside what you think about the EU, they are jointly and severally nasty people.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Wise words.

    :-)

    Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!

    Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council president. Whether the national leaders would be happy to allow EU politicians to have such vast personal mandates though, far in excess of their own, is doubtful.

    I think the national leaders are happy to have EU leaders be relatively unknown functionaries. And that creates a tension between wanting the EU to be more democratic, and not wanting an EU demos to elect people who don't do what they're told.

    I agree on both points - I think that's really a good idea, and the national governments mostly don't want it for the reason you say.
    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? Otherwise a candidate for President could say one thing to English people in London and a very different thing to Neapolitans. The words might be the same but the understanding very different etc. People might even use the same words but mean very different things by them eg “democracy”.

    Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.

    On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.

    Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-

    (a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
    (b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.

    Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Nigelb said:
    Hmmm, yes, well...

    Though to be perfectly fair, if the Prime Minister thinks her Withdrawal Agreement is the best option then there's nothing particularly wrong with not having an inferior option in reserve. Perhaps she intends to resign instead?

    If it's obvious that her deal can't be saved (especially if the Speaker allows procedural innovations to enable the rebels to take over the Parliamentary timetable) then I think she probably ought to do so.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    FF43 said:

    Salvini, Orbán and Kaczyński appear to be teaming up to undermine the EU. Leaving aside what you think about the EU, they are jointly and severally nasty people.

    I should add that Italy, Poland and Hungary have different agendas for the EU. Poland in particular likes the EU as a diplomatic bulwark against Russia. What the three leaders have in common is the belief that the EU gets in the way of their autocracy and attacking it boosts them politically with their electorate.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2019
    Colin W coming out for Remain isn't a big plus, but it makes a change from actors thinking they know it all.

    "So what's your expertise?" "I was once an understudy to an actor who played a statesman in a B-film. I played a surgeon once, shall I advise you on brain surgery? I think I might be quite good at it."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Nigelb said:
    Hmmm, yes, well...

    Though to be perfectly fair, if the Prime Minister thinks her Withdrawal Agreement is the best option then there's nothing particularly wrong with not having an inferior option in reserve. Perhaps she intends to resign instead?

    If it's obvious that her deal can't be saved (especially if the Speaker allows procedural innovations to enable the rebels to take over the Parliamentary timetable) then I think she probably ought to do so.
    She truly should. I assumed she would after the MV initially, which was the only reason she pulled it in the first place unfortunately.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,768
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    In a much more sceptical EU parliament come May there may just be the chance of a change of regime

    I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.

    The next commission President is 90% likely to be Manfred Weber barring a catastrophic change in fortune for the EPP.

    This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:

    "The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."

    As you say current polls easily show the EPP as the largest party post this year's EU elections - on 177 seats - albeit down by nearly 50. So Manfred Weber will almost certainly be the new President. The Socialists also drop sharply but clearly remain in second place.

    The ENF group on this polling increases in size from 40 to 60 - presumably due to Lega in Italy, and the ECR drops by over 20 seats due to the departure of the British conservatives. The UKIP/Five star EFDD group will presumably disappear as it will be unviable so 5 star will need to find new allies. And the other groups barely change - albeit the Liberals might go up a bit if En Marche join with them.

    So while there will more populists the parliament will still be controlled by the EPP backed up by the socialists and Liberals sharing the jobs.

    https://www.politico.eu/interactive/european-elections-2019-poll-of-polls/
    I'd expect Fidesz to switch to ECR.
    Probably makes sense - as they link up with the Polish law and justice, Sweden Democrats and other right wing parties. Once the UK Tories leave the ECR will take a shift rightwards - or should I say assuming the UK Tories don't have MEPs post May!
    I'm not sure if Vox will join ENF. or ECR.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    kinabalu said:

    Wise words.

    :-)

    Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!

    Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.

    The Italian state has often been seen as an imposition - by the French during unification, by the North on the South (with a pretty nasty civil war following thereafter in the south, which is not much known about but still festers), by the US in post-war years. And as something which is corrupt and venal and therefore as a source of favours and goods. And as something whcih has at times been in hock to organised crime - see Andreotti. And very bureaucratic - which creates lots of job opportunities but also a lot of rules to get round.

    Why then would you willingly hand over your money to such an organisation? Why would you trust it to operate fairly and honestly? No - you come to an arrangement with it: l’arte d’arrangiarsi. You find a way round it.

    Chicken and egg of course because with such an attitude it is hard to see how you can ever establish a trustworthy state.

    But, remember, it took a long time for our state to go from a court handing out favours to one with an honest and impartial administration and (generally) honest politicians.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited January 2019

    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    Clause IV was an 'aim' under pre-Blair Labour. It was in the constitution.

    Specifically, it was a goal that is not to be taken literally, that is accepted as not practical, but which is retained as a reminder of where our heart lies.

    The United States of Europe is an 'aim' or a 'goal' for the EU in the same way.

    One day they will do a Tony and replace it with something anodyne and meaningless.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kinabalu said:

    According to the OECD the tax take as a percentage of GDP is 42% in Italy.
    The average for OECD countries is 34%.

    Bloody Italians not paying their taxes.

    :-) ... Perhaps they are getting on top of it a little better these days.

    But the historical data does I think indicate that Italy has long been well below the mean of Western European countries on this metric.

    The issue being not the headline tax rates but the gap between what ought to be collected and what is collected.
    https://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-italy.pdf#

    Have a read.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:
    Hmmm, yes, well...

    Though to be perfectly fair, if the Prime Minister thinks her Withdrawal Agreement is the best option then there's nothing particularly wrong with not having an inferior option in reserve. Perhaps she intends to resign instead?

    If it's obvious that her deal can't be saved (especially if the Speaker allows procedural innovations to enable the rebels to take over the Parliamentary timetable) then I think she probably ought to do so.
    To be honest, I didn’t read beyond: “Chris Grayling denies 'void' in government”.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,768
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wise words.

    :-)

    Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!

    Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.

    The Italian state has often been seen as an imposition - by the French during unification, by the North on the South (with a pretty nasty civil war following thereafter in the south, which is not much known about but still festers), by the US in post-war years. And as something which is corrupt and venal and therefore as a source of favours and goods. And as something whcih has at times been in hock to organised crime - see Andreotti. And very bureaucratic - which creates lots of job opportunities but also a lot of rules to get round.

    Why then would you willingly hand over your money to such an organisation? Why would you trust it to operate fairly and honestly? No - you come to an arrangement with it: l’arte d’arrangiarsi. You find a way round it.

    Chicken and egg of course because with such an attitude it is hard to see how you can ever establish a trustworthy state.

    But, remember, it took a long time for our state to go from a court handing out favours to one with an honest and impartial administration and (generally) honest politicians.
    Going even further back, self - governing republics became closed oligarchies (Venice, Genoa), autocracies (Florence, Milan, Parma ) and/ or came under foreign rule (Naples, Florence, Venice and Milan again) which must further have alienated the population from the State.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. CD13, I want to know what ColinW's Mum makes of this.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    kyf_100 said:


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
    Euro army.

    Tax harmonisation.

    That's where it's headed.

    And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
    Given that your side is doomed to lose a second referendum, is your plan to ensure a super-mandate for future integration?
    I would rather there be a mandate for what it truly means than a vague mandate for "remain" without being absolutely explicit about what it means. Successive generations of politicans trying to sneak further integration in on us without a mandate is what got us into this mess in the first place. I'm actually with you that we should either be all in or all out, I just came to the opposite conclusion.

    Personally, I think the British public would roundly reject any referendum that tied us explicitly to a Euro army or surrendering tax powers to Brussels. But YMMV.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    Hmmm, yes, well...

    Though to be perfectly fair, if the Prime Minister thinks her Withdrawal Agreement is the best option then there's nothing particularly wrong with not having an inferior option in reserve. Perhaps she intends to resign instead?

    If it's obvious that her deal can't be saved (especially if the Speaker allows procedural innovations to enable the rebels to take over the Parliamentary timetable) then I think she probably ought to do so.
    To be honest, I didn’t read beyond: “Chris Grayling denies 'void' in government”.
    It's less a void and more a gigantic, gaping chasm.
  • Going to be a real nail-biter.....to see how many minutes after May is defeated that he calls the VONC.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Divvie, intensive care? Generous.

    At the first vote, it looks more like the morgue versus the cemetery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited January 2019
    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    kyf_100 said:


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
    Euro army.

    Tax harmonisation.

    That's where it's headed.

    And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
    Given that your side is doomed to lose a second referendum, is your plan to ensure a super-mandate for future integration?
    If you’re going to have premises, try to use some that are grounded in reality rather than personal fantasy. No-one knows how a second referendum would go, and anyone who claims to is a fool.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Ok, plenty of no deal talk may be overdone, but this did make me laugh

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1084491855696404480
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council presi're told.

    I agree on both points - I think that's really a good idea, and the national governments mostly don't want it for the reason you say.
    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? Otherwise a candidate for President could say one thing to English people in London and a very different thing to Neapolitans. The words might be the same but the understanding very different etc. People might even use the same words but mean very different things by them eg “democracy”.

    Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.

    On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.

    Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-

    (a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
    (b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.

    Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
    Mrs Free, thanks

    since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.

    In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wise words.

    :-)

    Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!

    Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.

    The Italian state has often been seen as an imposition - by the French during unification, by the North on the South (with a pretty nasty civil war following thereafter in the south, which is not much known about but still festers), by the US in post-war years. And as something which is corrupt and venal and therefore as a source of favours and goods. And as something whcih has at times been in hock to organised crime - see Andreotti. And very bureaucratic - which creates lots of job opportunities but also a lot of rules to get round.

    Why then would you willingly hand over your money to such an organisation? Why would you trust it to operate fairly and honestly? No - you come to an arrangement with it: l’arte d’arrangiarsi. You find a way round it.

    Chicken and egg of course because with such an attitude it is hard to see how you can ever establish a trustworthy state.

    But, remember, it took a long time for our state to go from a court handing out favours to one with an honest and impartial administration and (generally) honest politicians.
    Going even further back, self - governing republics became closed oligarchies (Venice, Genoa), autocracies (Florence, Milan, Parma ) and/ or came under foreign rule (Naples, Florence, Venice and Milan again) which must further have alienated the population from the State.
    True. Though when the Neapolitans fought to overthrow their Bourbon rulers during Napoleonic times (and inspired by him) - see the Partenopean Republic - it was the British who helped the Bourbon Kings put it down savagely. Nelson said the Neapolitans should be dealt with as harshly as the rebellious Irish. The British have not always been on the side of liberty!

    Yet - when it came to unification - Garibaldi was seen by the South as a maverick being used by the French to impose a distant Savoy king on them, much to their disgust. And they were then told how backward they were, despite Italy’s first railway having been built by the Bourbon Kings. So they saw the state as something to be plundered rather than anything more noble. And frankly so did the Italian political parties - and the rest of Italy. The Mani Pulite investigations in the early 1990’s revealed a rottenness at the heart of Italian public life, which the years since then have done little to improve.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council presi're told.

    I agree on both points - I think that's really a good idea, and the national governments mostly don't want it for the reason you say.
    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? Otherwise a candidate for President could say one thing to English people in London and a very different thing to Neapolitans. The words might be the same but the understanding very different etc. People might even use the same words but mean very different things by them eg “democracy”.

    Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.

    On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.

    Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-

    (a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
    (b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.

    Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
    Mrs Free, thanks

    since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.

    In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
    One thing you realise when you write articles is what a good journalist OGH is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Thanks for the header, Alanbrooke. You're becoming something of a regular!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wise words.

    :-)

    Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!

    Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.

    The Italian state has often been seen as an imposition - by the French during unification, by the North on the South (with a pretty nasty civil war following thereafter in the south, which is not much known about but still festers), by the US in post-war years. And as something which is corrupt and venal and therefore as a source of favours and goods. And as something whcih has at times been in hock to organised crime - see Andreotti. And very bureaucratic - which creates lots of job opportunities but also a lot of rules to get round.

    Why then would you willingly hand over your money to such an organisation? Why would you trust it to operate fairly and honestly? No - you come to an arrangement with it: l’arte d’arrangiarsi. You find a way round it.

    Chicken and egg of course because with such an attitude it is hard to see how you can ever establish a trustworthy state.

    But, remember, it took a long time for our state to go from a court handing out favours to one with an honest and impartial administration and (generally) honest politicians.
    Going even further back, self - governing republics became closed oligarchies (Venice, Genoa), autocracies (Florence, Milan, Parma ) and/ or came under foreign rule (Naples, Florence, Venice and Milan again) which must further have alienated the population from the State.
    The British have not always been on the side of liberty!
    What?! I am staggered.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Hang on. Does that mean Murray the Mantis is anti-EU?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't think it would be especially difficult to create a European demos, but I think it would require the direct election of the European Commission president and the European Council presi're told.

    I agree on both points - I think that's really a good idea, and the national governments mostly don't want it for the reason you say.
    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? Otherwise a candidate for President could say one thing to English people in London and a very different thing to are having to pay attention to Italy.
    Mrs Free, thanks

    since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.

    In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
    One thing you realise when you write articles is what a good journalist OGH is.
    I have a much greater apreciation of OGH and writers such as yourself. I think the editorial team do a cracking job in keeoing a daily feed of articles for us.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited January 2019
    Thanks. Yes, above the OECD average on that official measure. World Bank figs are lower but perhaps a different basis. Anyway, fine, no argument.

    But much tax is evaded by the non-declaration of economic activity. The effect of that is a lower tax take and (probably and ironically) a higher official tax as % of GDP than would otherwise be the case.

    This has been a bigger problem for Italy than for almost any other OECD country.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think. They have always been unrepresentative of the general public on the European question, and Brexit-supporting MPs are unrepresentative of Leavers in terms of their focus on trade vs immigration. I don’t think businesses will be any keener on Remain than before, particularly as some have endorsed the deal.

    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    Put Cummings back in the saddle, and let’s see what happens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think.
    No, I just don't think they are that out of step with the public on this - confused, and in the mood for simple answers which sound nice rather than a compromise which has been trashed by both left and right. It will be seen as May's deal, that has been hammered home by Tories for months, and whether a boycott is called for or not some number of leavers will believe as they ERG do that this will result in eternal vassalage or whatever. There's simply not enough enthusiasm to see a hamstrung leave win against a fired up remain campaign. No, nothing is impossible, but we've had months and months of people talking about the deal, and there have been the occasional grass shoots for it among the public, but nothing like enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    1-0 ManU
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    On a scale of 1-10 How far in the merde is the Scottish First Minister?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think.
    No, I just don't think they are that out of step with the public on this - confused, and in the mood for simple answers which sound nice rather than a compromise which has been trashed by both left and right. It will be seen as May's deal, that has been hammered home by Tories for months, and whether a boycott is called for or not some number of leavers will believe as they ERG do that this will result in eternal vassalage or whatever. There's simply not enough enthusiasm to see a hamstrung leave win against a fired up remain campaign. No, nothing is impossible, but we've had months and months of people talking about the deal, and there have been the occasional grass shoots for it among the public, but nothing like enough.
    As long as it’s seen as Leave, it has a chance. Very few people have changed their minds, and we know that people don’t appreciate unnecessary elections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    On a scale of 1-10 How far in the merde is the Scottish First Minister?

    Even at 4/10 it would be over her head.....
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think. They have always been unrepresentative of the general public on the European question, and Brexit-supporting MPs are unrepresentative of Leavers in terms of their focus on trade vs immigration. I don’t think businesses will be any keener on Remain than before, particularly as some have endorsed the deal.

    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    Put Cummings back in the saddle, and let’s see what happens.
    “Which part of ‘leave’ do you not understand?”
    ‘Give the treasonous bast*rds a good kicking, vote leave”
    “Informed consent. Leave means leave, even when they insist you really meant remain”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,768
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think.
    No, I just don't think they are that out of step with the public on this - confused, and in the mood for simple answers which sound nice rather than a compromise which has been trashed by both left and right. It will be seen as May's deal, that has been hammered home by Tories for months, and whether a boycott is called for or not some number of leavers will believe as they ERG do that this will result in eternal vassalage or whatever. There's simply not enough enthusiasm to see a hamstrung leave win against a fired up remain campaign. No, nothing is impossible, but we've had months and months of people talking about the deal, and there have been the occasional grass shoots for it among the public, but nothing like enough.
    As long as it’s seen as Leave, it has a chance. Very few people have changed their minds, and we know that people don’t appreciate unnecessary elections.
    The polling is very mixed on Deal v Remain. If it went to a referendum, it would turn on how many Leave supporters stay at home.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    notme2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think. They have always been unrepresentative of the general public on the European question, and Brexit-supporting MPs are unrepresentative of Leavers in terms of their focus on trade vs immigration. I don’t think businesses will be any keener on Remain than before, particularly as some have endorsed the deal.

    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    Put Cummings back in the saddle, and let’s see what happens.
    “Which part of ‘leave’ do you not understand?”
    ‘Give the treasonous bast*rds a good kicking, vote leave”
    “Informed consent. Leave means leave, even when they insist you really meant remain”
    All this and more.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. F, problem with such a referendum is, if it comes to that, it's a choice between something the electorate voted against and something the Commons voted against.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited January 2019

    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881
    I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.
This discussion has been closed.