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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited January 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? The words might be the same but the understanding very different etc. People might even use the same words but mean very different things by them eg “democracy”.

    Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.

    On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.

    Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-

    (a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
    (b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.

    Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
    Mrs Free, thanks

    since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.

    In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
    Indeed. Writing interestingly and succintly is harder than it looks. I am immensely grateful to OGH for the opportunity. And I learn something from you and the other thread writers. I also have my own blog to practise on and it is interesting seeing what gets a good reaction on that. Different audiences, of course, and a different purpose.

    It’s interesting how the Left (other than the Far Left) has been so willing to go along with austerity in the name of Europe which they would never tolerate if it was imposed by domestic centre right parties.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,842
    I've done 260 to 269 @ 25/1

    Sensing a move towards the Deal.

    No doubt like most bets based on 'sensing something unlikely in the absence of hard evidence' it will be a loser.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760

    Mr. F, problem with such a referendum is, if it comes to that, it's a choice between something the electorate voted against and something the Commons voted against.

    Which would assist Remain in itself. Many people would consider Parliament would never a Leave result, regardless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited January 2019
    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been. And that the solution is just to redo it all over again, and not because it needs confirming, but because of changed minds, ie this time they think they will win.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.
    If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.
    The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.
    You are overstating the importance of what MPs think.
    No, I just don't think they are that out of step with the public on this - confused, and in the mood for simple answers which sound nice rather than a compromise which has been trashed by both left and right. It will be seen as May's deal, that has been hammered home by Tories for months, and whether a boycott is called for or not some number of leavers will believe as they ERG do that this will result in eternal vassalage or whatever. There's simply not enough enthusiasm to see a hamstrung leave win against a fired up remain campaign. No, nothing is impossible, but we've had months and months of people talking about the deal, and there have been the occasional grass shoots for it among the public, but nothing like enough.
    As long as it’s seen as Leave, it has a chance. Very few people have changed their minds, and we know that people don’t appreciate unnecessary elections.
    The polling is very mixed on Deal v Remain. If it went to a referendum, it would turn on how many Leave supporters stay at home.


    I thought it was more on how many of those young people who have just had their future stolen could be bothered to actually vote
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480

    The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760
    kle4 said:

    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881
    I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.
    Sir Edward Leigh has confirmed he will vote for it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    He’s been able to view the real project fear documents then? :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480

    The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.
    Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881
    I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.
    All three had already come out for the deal some time ago. If they were wavering that’s bad news for Theresa May, not good news.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480

    The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.
    correct the term is very cross or sometimes furiously demented
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480

    The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.
    Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.
    And really, young people denied a vote? I assume the suffrage was 16 before the referendum or something.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited January 2019
    She’s very slippery. She’s right that the protest she suffered probably moved over into a public order offence and was quite unpleasant and alarming. But she’s trying to conflate that with the loud protests on the green making it difficult for the broadcasters (on her last broadcast with sky news she called people who voted leave fascists and nazis). Because sky news are having difficulty getting the sound levels right does not make it some how a contravention or free speech, and does not mean that this is also some convoluted offence. Utter nonsense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I would hope that they have no been buying people off with Privy Council positions and the like, since what would be the point when they need to switch 100 or so votes? They can hardly give out that many without it being too obvious.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    I wasn’t involved in starting it.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    When you are relying on Colin Warnock to swing public opinion, you’re on thin ice!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480

    The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.
    Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.
    And really, young people denied a vote? I assume the suffrage was 16 before the referendum or something.
    That old chestbut is one of the most preposterous of the second referendum arguments (which for the record, I still back simply as at least a possible way out of this mess). Today's toddlers won't be getting a vote on this new referendum either, what if they are set to be a super brexity generation or something? If people grow up out of the EU will they be as keen to rejoin it? Maybe, but it is so weak when people go down the route of talking about the young people, because it inevitably just ends up sounding like old people should not be allowed to vote in referendums, and unless you rerun it every year new young people will always have been left out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....
  • Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....
    It’s funny to see how Soubry et al are upset by the level of opprobrium they face now.

    They have no idea what’s coming if we have to vote again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881
    I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.
    All three had already come out for the deal some time ago. If they were wavering that’s bad news for Theresa May, not good news.
    Well she doesn't really have any good news when it comes to the vote. Even the news a few Labour MPs will back it isn't really good news, since as far as I recall most lists predicting the vote calculated in that some number of Lab MPs would do so, even though they had spoken against the deal.

    So it is as it was: Will it be a record defeat, or just a titanic defeat?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    I think the campaign will be unpleasant, if we vote to remain, there will be a lot of discontent, but the democratic process will be damaged, not beyond repair, but damaged.
    Many remainers seem to see a second referendum as a no cost option. If they win, they win and we stay in the Eu, if they lose, well we were leaving anyway.

    Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    She's been playing Crusader Kings II?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    notme2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.
    No worries, parliament is about to take back control. And since the problem is definitely purely May and not at all that parliament is horribly divided on this, everything will be fine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....
    Not if it wins. Most people do not appear the slightest bit concerned about a re run so long as they get what they want
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    She's been playing Crusader Kings II?
    She’s being advised by Gliterhoof. :D


    Ah, my coat.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.

    And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760
    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
  • One of the men at the heart of pro-Brexit yellow jacket protests outside Parliament was jailed for his part in an attempted kidnapping.

    Danny Thomas - who is Tommy Robinson's bodyguard - has been protesting alongside activists who clashed with Remain-voting Tory MP Anna Soubry in Westminster.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6586497/Pro-Brexit-yellow-vest-rally-organiser-jailed-frightening-armed-kidnap-plot.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    She's been playing Crusader Kings II?
    She’s being advised by Gliterhoof. :D
    I had to google that (CKII proved far too complicated for my poor little mind). What a great story.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    notme2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    I think the campaign will be unpleasant, if we vote to remain, there will be a lot of discontent, but the democratic process will be damaged, not beyond repair, but damaged.
    Many remainers seem to see a second referendum as a no cost option. If they win, they win and we stay in the Eu, if they lose, well we were leaving anyway.

    Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.
    I agree that British democracy can survive a second referendum. However, the damage caused will reverberate for years, if not decades.

    I think Corbyn would then be likely to win the next election. There will be millions of voters looking for revenge, and they’re not going to blame the official opposition.

    It’ll get exciting when McDonnell introduces capital controls in the first budget.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    This is interesting. EU prepatring for an A50 extension. Possibly a lengthy one:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    kle4 said:

    notme2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.

    It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.
    If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.

    It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
    Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.
    No worries, parliament is about to take back control. And since the problem is definitely purely May and not at all that parliament is horribly divided on this, everything will be fine.
    The country is horribly divided on this, EU over did their negotiating advantage to end up with a cauliflower deal, Theresa May set down red lines which made compromise appear as defeat, the Labour Party do not want to leave, but their leader does, sees the weakness in parliament as a means to power and will actively oppose any and all deals. A Conservative party that has collectively decided it wants a milkshake, but can’t decide the flavour, with a couple of dozen insisting it’s a vegan shake or nothing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Cyclefree said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.

    And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
    John Redwood got a knighthood. If votes are being bought with honours it is doing a very poor job of it, and has bought off less than a handful in a vote to be lost by hundreds. Is it plausible?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,571
    kyf_100 said:


    But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.

    The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.

    Future integration efforts will be done:

    1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts

    2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.

    3) The passerelle clause
    Euro army.

    Tax harmonisation.

    That's where it's headed.

    And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
    You are right in that the option should spell out the direction of travel put forward by the EU President. However, the "if" is rather questionable. The second referendum has nothing to do with any exercise of democratic expression. Rather, it is about protecting the backs of a large majority of MPs who will already have scuppered Brexit and who fear the consequences of their actions. Some have done so overtly, others such as May and Hammond have done so covertly through masking their willingness all along to negotiate for BINO by the guise of ineptitude.

    So as Brexit is going to be scuppered long before any referendum is held, let MPs go ahead and vote it down, face the consequences and forget about the protective veneer of a 2nd referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
  • Cyclefree said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.

    And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
    Honours cost the state nothing to confer and printing at will inflates away their value. As a way of buying votes goes it's a harmless one. My own MP has flip flopped on the MV. I hope she held out for a Damehood.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Cyclefree said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.

    And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
    I’d much rather patronage manifested in the form of titles than public money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RoyalBlue said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.

    A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.

    And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
    I’d much rather patronage manifested in the form of titles than public money.
    I'd rather they not be willing to trade position on something for a title. But I honestly don't see how that can be what is happening, given how many people are voting no handing out a few gongs wouldn't help. Presumably it's buggins' turn.
  • David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited January 2019

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    We know that is the plan because they were saying so before the MV was pulled in december that less than 100 would be spun as a victory. Pathetic, but with no way to win the MV first up that's probably the best they can hope for. They won't get it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
  • That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.
    Coup de grace?
  • FF43 said:

    This is interesting. EU prepatring for an A50 extension. Possibly a lengthy one:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july

    Seems sensible. There is a vast raft of secondary legislation needed and any and every statutory instrument can be voted down with a single division in either House. That's before the losers of the MV eventual compromise terrorise the ratifying Act. That's if things go well and a deal emerges.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    Mr. CD13, I want to know what ColinW's Mum makes of this.

    I’m told she is currently engaged in preparing his Angel Delight (Pomegranate and Lentil flavour) for tonight’s dinner. Meanwhile, he is torturing Morwenna, the pet tarantula.
  • That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.
    I've told you my Edward Leigh/Durham Union Society story haven't I ? One of the more colourful of our fellow Alumni.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Interesting articles. The 5 star movement seems to have been completely overshadowed by Salvini since they took office. Think they've fallen behind the league in polls too. A rare example of the junior coalition partner doing better than the senior one. Probably the lesson is don't go into a party more radical than you if you consider yourself a radical party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Interesting articles. The 5 star movement seems to have been completely overshadowed by Salvini since they took office. Think they've fallen behind the league in polls too. A rare example of the junior coalition partner doing better than the senior one. Probably the lesson is don't go into a party more radical than you if you consider yourself a radical party.

    Salvini picked the right ministries to grab the headlines perhaps?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.
    I've told you my Edward Leigh/Durham Union Society story haven't I ? One of the more colourful of our fellow Alumni.
    No. Please do!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
    She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Pulpstar said:

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
    She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..
    And to think that Snell had More United backing.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760
    Pulpstar said:

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
    She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..
    Probably Fitzpatrick and Austin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
    She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..
    And to think that Snell had More United backing.
    He effing well did. I voted to endorse him as well. Looking overall I think the 2017 More United slate ( that was elected ) has held up very well given it's by nature a risky business.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited January 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.

    To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.

    I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.
    She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..
    And to think that Snell had More United backing.
    He effing well did. I voted to endorse him as well. Looking overall I think the 2017 More United slate ( that was elected ) has held up very well given it's by nature a risky business.
    I am pleased to say I didn't, and resigned from MU when it gave him its backing. It was always obvious he was some way adrift from its values, not to mention his awkward back story.

    I suspect MU is defunct now, particularly without Paddy driving it along.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    That has always been the case. What has changed is that the Speaker is not allowing the government to control how Parliament spends its time.
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8

    Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.
    But it makes for great campaigning being able to show all those dishonest Remain politicians saying there would be no second referendum. Writes the script for Leave.
    So you have mentally conceded there will be another vote.
    Not at all. I have no idea at present how it will all pan out and no influence on it either so not really much point me making predictions. I am not sure whether or not the boycott idea is a good one if they do decide that they don't like democracy unless they are winning. I will have to wait and see how the land lies at the time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.

    It's a standing order amendment (suspension?) to be put by Grieve, not a speaker ruling. It will need to be carried, first. And it may well be limited in scope, rather than of unlimited application.
  • She had better keep her mouth shut then. Everything she says is offensive.
  • kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
    The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
  • Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.

    Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Cyclefree said:



    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?

    Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
    The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
    Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.

    There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.

    The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july
  • Chris said:

    There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.

    Not without violating the Vienna Convention.
    Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.
    If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:
    http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
    Completely immaterial. The ECJ cannot unilaterally shoehorn the EU into treaties when they are explicitly excluded. Not only are the EU not a signatory., they are explicitly excluded as they are not (yet) a nation state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.

    The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
    IanB2 said:

    The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.

    The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july

    Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
  • I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.

    Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.

    Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.
    Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.

    An interesting forecast. But not one I buy.

    The Pro European Conservative Party didn't do so well in the past, and I can't see MPs deserting unless they are deselected. (Which, of course, will be a huge disincentive for the Conservative Party to deselect them ..)

    Ultimately, die hard Remain Conservative Remainers are few in number.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Chris said:

    There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.

    Not without violating the Vienna Convention.
    Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.
    If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:
    http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
    Completely immaterial. The ECJ cannot unilaterally shoehorn the EU into treaties when they are explicitly excluded. Not only are the EU not a signatory., they are explicitly excluded as they are not (yet) a nation state.
    +1
  • notme2 said:

    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.

    Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.
    Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.
    I certainly agree it makes it easier for Bercow and every subsequent Speaker to now do this citing precident. But nothing about it strikes me as a general rule change to apply in all circumstances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.

    Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.
    Perhaps they'll resign the whip before they do so, so no Tory will vote for it.

    But I don't expect any to vote for it this week. But he can do another one later. And if May does hold firm and refuse a referendum, the ultra remainers have to decide just how important being a part of the EU is to them.

    Just as the ERG must decide if Brexit is worth abandoning if they cannot get it perfectly. So far they say yes it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    notme2 said:

    Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.

    Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.

    Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.

    Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.

    Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.
    Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.
    I certainly agree it makes it easier for Bercow and every subsequent Speaker to now do this citing precident. But nothing about it strikes me as a general rule change to apply in all circumstances.
    Just for the partisan convenience of the speaker, so much better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Cyclefree said:



    There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?

    Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
    Isn't Switzerland a hotbed of sectarian violence where French and German speakers regularly bomb each other's homes and places of business?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
    The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
    Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.

    There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.
    Where's the Like button when you need it
  • Man United win away at Spurs.

    Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with a sixth straight win,

    The Norway solution is working - for Man U.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Thank you @Alanbrooke for a couple of very informative thread headers.

    Next week, Hungary?

    ‘Ave some tea then, pet
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    PB has an item in this week's Sunday Times Atticus (diary) column!

    Apparently this site has been "hotly tipping" Moran as next LibDem leader.
  • Man United win away at Spurs.

    Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with a sixth straight win,

    The Norway solution is working - for Man U.

    No other manager for United, including Busby and Ferguson, have won their first six games
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.

    The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.

    An interesting forecast. But not one I buy.

    The Pro European Conservative Party didn't do so well in the past, and I can't see MPs deserting unless they are deselected. (Which, of course, will be a huge disincentive for the Conservative Party to deselect them ..)

    Ultimately, die hard Remain Conservative Remainers are few in number.
    The pro-European Conservative party won 4 elections on the trot. You can’t compare the current political landscape with 2001.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
  • PB has an item in this week's Sunday Times Atticus (diary) column!

    Apparently this site has been "hotly tipping" Moran as next LibDem leader.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1084522779054092289
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
    They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
    The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
    Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.

    There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.
    They might not have a choice. Given that the DUP won’t support May’s deal because of the backstop and Grieve and Co can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business as he is reported to be trying once May loses, he and his rebels can hardly support the Gov in a VONC so Corbyn could well succeed.
  • kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
    They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
    Indeed, if every Remain supporting Tory MP backed the deal, Mrs May would still lose bigly.

    The best theory about I've heard why Leaver Tories are voting against the deal is that they never wanted to Leave in the first (they supported Leave for professional reasons) and Parliament intervening to stop a No Deal Brexit allows Leaver Tories to be defeated with honour.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
    If she had the Leavers substantially behind her, the Remainers would fall in line. The Leavers are emboldening the few Remainers to make hay.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
    The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
    Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.

    There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.
    They might not have a choice. Given that the DUP won’t support May’s deal because of the backstop and Grieve and Co can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business as he is reported to be trying once May loses, he and his rebels can hardly support the Gov in a VONC so Corbyn could well succeed.
    He might. But an election still solves nothing unless the intractable in the party become tractable. Why would they? For the sake of Brexit? If that were all it took the deal would not be about to be so comprehensively humiliated.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
    They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
    They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    IanB2 said:

    The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.

    The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july

    Significant IMO. It means, I think, that the EU no longer sees the cliff edge acting to its advantage. It really doesn't want No Deal, it wants the UK to make a decision without dragging the EU into its mess. It can live with limbo but it doesn't want to force a decision that is regretted later.

    It should mean the UK is less likely to leave on March 29 and less likely to go for No Deal.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Sean_F said:

    Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.

    To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
    May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
    Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
    They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
    If she had the Leavers substantially behind her, the Remainers would fall in line. The Leavers are emboldening the few Remainers to make hay.
    Leavers have already said they don’t support the deal but they do support the Gov. DUP have said the same. None of the Remainers rebels - either Grieve’s or Boles’ - have said the same and unlike them, Leavers are not reported to be trying to seize control of Gov business. Remain MPs want power without responsibility.
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