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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”

With the US government shutdown continuing and 800k federal workers not getting their salary cheques on Friday there’s no sign of an end to what is totally dominating US politics. Basically Trump has shut down large parts of the federal government to put pressure on the Democrats to provide funding for a wall along the whole of the Mexican-US border. This was a key Trump WH2016 campaign pledge when he said the Mexicans would pay. That, as you’d expect has not been forthcoming.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.

    Yep.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084647050208333825
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    This shutdown is hard to get out of. Normally, the two parties are fighting over the support of 51%, which by definition only one side can win, so when it becomes clear who the voters are blaming the losing side gives in. But in this case the Dems want 60% and Trump wants the 33% he needs to keep the GOP on side when the Mueller report comes out, so on their own terms, both sides are winning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019

    This shutdown is hard to get out of. Normally, the two parties are fighting over the support of 51%, which by definition only one side can win, so when it becomes clear who the voters are blaming the losing side gives in. But in this case the Dems want 60% and Trump wants the 33% he needs to keep the GOP on side when the Mueller report comes out, so on their own terms, both sides are winning.

    An acquaintance is having trouble renewing their US visa thanks to the shutdown.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The great thing about this row is we can get some reliable polling on how many Americans believe they don’t need no education.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT Mike Wood signalled a month ago that he was opposed to the deal. He did not resign then only because the matter was not forced to a vote. He is not a new name in the opposed column.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Where is everyone?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Charles said:

    Where is everyone?

    Stockpiling food and water ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Charles said:

    Where is everyone?

    Stockpiling food and water ?
    And spare batteries so we can keep posting on PB even if the lights go out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2019
    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.

    Yep.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084647050208333825
    He is, but Pocahontas is not going to beat him. She’s the white liberal that makes even white liberals roll their eyes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?

    Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Where is everyone?

    Stockpiling food and water ?
    And spare batteries so we can keep posting on PB even if the lights go out.
    Getting popcorn in for what might be Andy Murray's last ever match.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited January 2019
    The direction of travel of those polls is towards crossover. Not expecting it to happen, but those opposing building a wall have fallen noticeably. (Was 60, now 56)

    Edited; due to poor eyesight & small type!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?

    Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.
    Brexit means Brexit. Apparently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    The direction of travel of those polls is towards crossover. Not expecting it to happen, but those opposing building a wall have fallen noticeably. (Was 60, now 50)

    Yes, I thought the graph didn't match the header well.

    Nonetheless Trumpland is a bonkers place!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
    There are factories in Stoke?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
    There are factories in Stoke?
    She's visiting bet365 to back her deal in person.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    With the prepackaged news, I thought she had already been, on Saturday or Sunday.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
    There are factories in Stoke?
    Probably best not to be one in the automative parts business.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 2019
    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited January 2019
    Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    FF43 said:

    Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.

    Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
    There are factories in Stoke?
    Probably best not to be one in the automative parts business.
    Stoke's industry went to pot many years ago.

    I'll get my coat.

    Have a good morning.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    notme2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.

    Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?
    Fair point. America has been in an economic upcycle, partially artificially inflated by Trump's policies. Unfortunately for Trump, it looks like the cycle is turning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Obama built huge stretches of wall (well fence) massively expanding the physical US/Mexico infastructure.

    The Wall Trump wants to build is racism. He want 5 billion dollars to fund racism.

    This is one of those figuratively / literally moments.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563

    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.

    Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.
    Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563
    notme2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.

    Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?
    Yes, and the latest survey suggests that the Brexit grievances are not exactly well-founded:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/uk-jobs-boom-strongest-in-south-yorkshire-and-merseyside-thinktank-finds

    I am pretty sure that Brexit will do little or nothing to aid the regions in decline. And less than nothing to insulate them from any negative effects.
  • Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?

    Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.
    Apparently we have a choice between "Bobby Ewing Brexit" (It's all a dream) or "Hotel California Brexit" (You can check out any time you like, but can never leave).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    70% of Stoke voted to Leave.

    I think they misunderstood the question
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    edited January 2019
    I swear I saw someone say since the shutdown more republicans support the wall, but I can't find the citation.

    Anyway, partisanship is a hell of a drug.

    Edit: found citation:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-shutdown-latest-border-wall-poll-support-tweets-republicans-democrats-graham-pelosi-a8726206.html
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited January 2019
    Morning all.

    The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?

    Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.
    Apparently we have a choice between "Bobby Ewing Brexit" (It's all a dream) or "Hotel California Brexit" (You can check out any time you like, but can never leave).
    Is it too late to propose a ‘Marmite’ Brexit? Everyone likes Marmite.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.

    https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Morning all.

    The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.

    This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313

    One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Waste of time. Heck, some people use the fact the EU have agreed to it as proof it is no good, rather misunderstanding negotiations. But in any case the first vote cannot be saved.

    Trump has a better shot at hisxwall than brexit does of happening.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through

    The usual behind closed doors factory visit with no questions?
    There are factories in Stoke?
    She's visiting bet365 to back her deal in person.
    Love it.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The graph appears to contradict the lead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.

    I would hope so. No one can be like all the people. But you must recognise political parties deliberately pretend otherwise and heavily suggest their opponent, if say they went to private school or is a rich socialist, could not possibly care or understand about the people. It's one of those slightly patronising things politicians do.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    notme2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.

    Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?
    ... thanks to Obama.
    We'll see Trump's figures when the economy has had time to react to them.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.

    "The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."

    Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Morning all.

    The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.

    This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313

    One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.
    It's a good thread. And underlines how it is a mistake to see a referendum vote as the end of the job, rather than when the real work should have started.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    CD13 said:

    In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.

    "The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."

    Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.

    and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.

    It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Alistair said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.

    https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19
    You have to pay for insulin!?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Morning all.

    The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.

    This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313

    One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.
    Poor thread, I'm afraid Alastair. Not a single detail of what was actually done just platitudes.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.

    "The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."

    Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.

    and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.

    It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
    Precisely the same feigned outrage about trump recognising jurusalem as the capital of Israel and relocating the US embassy there. Then a video came out that seems to show every presidential candidate since Nixon had made the same commitment...
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.

    https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19
    You have to pay for insulin!?
    https://www.behindthebastards.com/podcasts/the-bastards-that-kill-diabetics-for-a-profit.htm

    This is a great podcast in general, but the insulin episode is especially interesting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    148grss said:


    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.

    https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19
    You have to pay for insulin!?
    https://www.behindthebastards.com/podcasts/the-bastards-that-kill-diabetics-for-a-profit.htm

    This is a great podcast in general, but the insulin episode is especially interesting.
    I will have to listen when I can. It never occurred to me people would be charged for something like insulin.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.

    https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19
    You have to pay for insulin!?
    American healthcare. The envy of the world....... not!
  • There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.
    Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.

    'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Just reading the Wikipedia entry on the 1997 Welsh Devolution Referendum, it sounds like the key compromise came before the vote:

    There was no inter-party Constitutional Convention in Wales to define devolution as there had been in Scotland. Labour's initial proposal to elect a Welsh Assembly using the traditional first-past-the-post system was reversed in late 1996 in favour of the Additional Member System. This change was vital in order to gain the support of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the event of a referendum.

    Of course, as we all know, the AMS in Wales delivers very nicely for Labour.
  • IanB2 said:

    The graph appears to contradict the lead.

    Quite.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Nigelb said:

    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.

    Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.
    Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).

    I think that's right, and Trump seems perfectly credible in that sense. Jacob Rees-Mogg is perhaps an extreme test of the theory - he seems authentic enough, but authentically archaic. People like his generally polite manner but nurse doubts about his suitability for high office.

    Mind you, Hillary was pretty credible as a remote, cerebral establishment liberal, with few attempts to be folksy, and she got criticised for that. As the article says, if people want to get you they'll find an angle.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.

    Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.

    "The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."

    Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.

    and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.

    It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
    Democrats already passed a bill that funded the wall last Congress but Trump vetoed it because it wasn't racist enough. Seriously.

    Trump's Wall isn't about an actual wall, it is about racsim.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?
  • Alistair said:
    In other words May has achieved the square root of f**k all since the vote was delayed and a month has been wasted for nothing whatsoever.

    Makes a complete mockery of the idea there was no time for a leadership vote. We could have held a leadership election by now and it could have been May's successor trying to move things along already in the time she's wasted to do absolutely nothing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Barnesian said:

    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.

    Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.
    May has thus in the bag. Not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited January 2019
    snip
  • Roger said:

    If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?

    Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Roger said:

    70% of Stoke voted to Leave.

    I think they misunderstood the question

    I'm sure that the population of Stoke will take great notice of a jet setting ad exec from the south of France. It's this kind of patronising attitude that led to these communities being ignored and voting to leave. Should Stoke's voice be any less valid than Islington or Glasgow?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.
    Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.

    'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'
    Trump is a leader and his base are followers. Witness the way white evangelicals suddenly felt it was okay for the president to be unfaithful to his wife and lie once Trump became the nominee.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited January 2019
    Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    Brexit perhaps?
  • Roger said:

    70% of Stoke voted to Leave.

    I think they misunderstood the question

    I'm sure that the population of Stoke will take great notice of a jet setting ad exec from the south of France. It's this kind of patronising attitude that led to these communities being ignored and voting to leave. Should Stoke's voice be any less valid than Islington or Glasgow?
    Very well said
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    So Mexico is going to pay for the wall with a cheque or not?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Nigelb said:

    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.

    Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.
    Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).

    Trump's authenticity was that he was a consummate deal maker and a businessman who got thing done. In fact he's a lousy deal maker. If he were any good, the wall would be half built by now. N
    Few cared one way or the other about walls until Trump made it into an issue. His other authenticity was that he told things as they are. Actually he's the biggest liar ever to occupy the White House
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Barnesian said:

    Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.

    Not dissimiliar to Reagen and Clinton though.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.

    Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.
    May has thus in the bag. Not.
    Still not totally convinced the vote will actually take place tomorrow night.

    Some were saying last night that it looked like May was preparing to call for a GE after her expected defeat in tomorrow's vote. Would she really want to go to the country on the back of a resounding Commons defeat?

    If she really intends to go for GE, there is still plenty of time for her to take back control and pull the vote, avoiding the humiliation of perhaps a crushing defeat.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    On topic, Trump doesn’t want the wall he wants to be seen to be fighting for the wall. The aim being to keep the “base” fired up ready to be used to threaten a primary against any Rebuplican Senators who show signs of challenging Trump in any way. Look out for the first R senator up in 2020 to say “bring it on” when threatened with a primary, at that point the end is nigh for Trump.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880

    Nigelb said:

    A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/

    It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.

    Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.
    Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).

    I think that's right, and Trump seems perfectly credible in that sense. Jacob Rees-Mogg is perhaps an extreme test of the theory - he seems authentic enough, but authentically archaic. People like his generally polite manner but nurse doubts about his suitability for high office.

    Mind you, Hillary was pretty credible as a remote, cerebral establishment liberal, with few attempts to be folksy, and she got criticised for that. As the article says, if people want to get you they'll find an angle.
    Boris Johnson is basically the definition of false authenticity - yet remains very popular with his target audience.

    Warren is seen as an elitist liberal professor (perhaps), but really was born in Oklahoma and actually has done a lot to 'look after the little guy'. Her problem is not false authenticity, but the perception of false authenticity.
  • Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.

    Not dissimiliar to Reagen and Clinton though.
    That's true. Reagan and Clinton's approval ratings slowly improved from this point in their presidency. Trump's is moving in the opposite direction.

    It is striking for an incumbent president that Betfair has Trump's probability of getting a second term at only 30%.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.

    So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?

    And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Just reading the Wikipedia entry on the 1997 Welsh Devolution Referendum, it sounds like the key compromise came before the vote:

    There was no inter-party Constitutional Convention in Wales to define devolution as there had been in Scotland. Labour's initial proposal to elect a Welsh Assembly using the traditional first-past-the-post system was reversed in late 1996 in favour of the Additional Member System. This change was vital in order to gain the support of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the event of a referendum.

    Of course, as we all know, the AMS in Wales delivers very nicely for Labour.

    Indeed. May has delivered a dishonest assessment, but not more dishonest than our posters from North Essex and the Oxfordshire.

    More to the point, how successful has the Welsh Assembly been ?

    Well, if you are a Labour mediocrity from England, it has been very successful (Remember the Chair of Welsh Labour lives in Bolton).

    It has provided an opportunity for such nomarks to pocket easy money and be big fishes in a smaller pond, which to most of them is just western Britain anyway.

    So the Labour Party (part of which was once very strongly opposed to devolution) is now strongly in favour. Last time I saw, Labour wanted to double the size of the Welsh Assembly to increase job opportunities for pipsqueak bootlickers and box tickers from England.

    For Wales and the Welsh people, continuous Labour Governments have proved disastrous. Wales is now poorer than it was in 1999 -- despite the huge tankers of EU money that Remainers assure us is delivered regularly to the Welsh people.

    Why has there been continuous Labour Government? It is because Labour can achieve a majority on 34.7 per cent of the vote. The "consensual" process by which the Welsh Assembly was set up has led to a one-party state, with all the familiar and dreadful problems that that engenders,

    Don't dare brag about the success of the consensus that led to the Welsh Assembly, especially if you rarely set foot in Wales. There is absolutely nothing to brag about.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    American politicians don't tend to soul-search very much, do they?

    Just think how bad Hillary was as a candidate if she lost to Trump. Her campaign always felt like … "It's my turn to be President because I'm Bill's wife and I'm female." Nepotism worthy of a somewhere like Somalia.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Roger said:

    If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?

    Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?
    Blair was/is of course a Tory. The point has merit, actually. In my mind, I can see Corbyn telling Trump to eff off, should it be necessary to do so, far more easily and quickly than any Cons PM.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Andy Murray going down the drain quicker than the Boles/Letwin/Bercow coup..
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?

    Surely Bercow can make up a new rule interpreting "tomorrow" as "immediately"?
  • Barnesian said:

    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.

    Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.
    is there an over/under market?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?

    The Speaker would go ballistic. He might ignore convention and establish a new precedent that the government cannot unilaterally overturn a business motion that has been approved by the house. It would be a real constitutional crisis. Which side would the Queen and her Army be on?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Rexel56 said:

    Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.

    So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?

    And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?

    Well indeed. If May trys to put her plan in a manifesto then it's going to be unworkable. Likewise, how any of the rebels. Grieve et-al can sign up for a EU withdrawal now is stupid.

    (but hey they signed up for it when they had the last election, so who the f-knows...)
  • Alistair said:

    There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.

    He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.
    Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.

    'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'
    Trump is a leader and his base are followers. Witness the way white evangelicals suddenly felt it was okay for the president to be unfaithful to his wife and lie once Trump became the nominee.
    Yep, I had that in mind also. It's striking how those who claim loudly & publicly to have very strong moral principles let those principles evaporate quicker than snow aff a dyke at the first sniff of a culture war. If I weren't such an idealistic optimist, that sort of thing might turn me into a cynic.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.

    There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.

    Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.
    is there an over/under market?
    Not on Betfair that I can see. I'll look on Oddschecker.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Sad news: the mayor of Cambridge has passed away while on holiday in South Africa.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46855119
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Rexel56 said:

    Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.

    So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?

    And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?

    Quite. I fail to see how the Tories could conceivably have May's deal as their manifesto commitment, if around a third of their sitting MP's have already rejected it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    TGOHF said:
    And how are they going to force the EU to comply?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563
    CD13 said:

    American politicians don't tend to soul-search very much, do they?

    Just think how bad Hillary was as a candidate if she lost to Trump. Her campaign always felt like … "It's my turn to be President because I'm Bill's wife and I'm female." Nepotism worthy of a somewhere like Somalia.

    Not exactly, given that she won the nomination by getting the most votes.
    Whether one likes her or not, and I don't particularly, it's arguably less nepotistic than the careers of some of our politicians' offspring.
  • TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?

    Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?
    Blair was/is of course a Tory. The point has merit, actually. In my mind, I can see Corbyn telling Trump to eff off, should it be necessary to do so, far more easily and quickly than any Cons PM.
    Corbyn may but the EU is immaterial to the discussion.
This discussion has been closed.