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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    Anazina said:

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    Yes, the Welsh referendum example completely blows a hole in the government's 'undemocratic to have a second referendum' argument. To be honest, I'm surprised we hadn't thought of this one before now!!
    Because it is not the same situation. In the case of the Welsh Assembly the original result of the referendum had been enacted and the assembly had been set up in 1999. What is now being proposed is to have a second referendum before the first has even been enacted.

    Now I am very happy for you to have another referendum on rejoining the EU in, say, 9 or 10 years which would be exactly the same as what the Tories campaigned for in 2005.
    If you check the twitter thread you'll see that a number of leading Tories voted against establishing both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh assembly even after these had been endorsed by referendum.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    And how does that help anything
    So what should happen instead?
    I expect that the amendments and the HOC will dictate the way forward and, as said, TM will act in a caretaker capacity until the way forward is agreed

    An alternative is she could come back and amend the MV by adding "subject to approval in a Referendum versus No Deal and Remain (with a consequent extension of A50)".

    That would pass in the HoC imo.

    In any event, we won't be exiting on March 29th.
    That is a variation on my early suggestion that the HOC will amend the deal to subject to a deal/ remain referendum and TM will enact the legislation on a cross party basis and effectively head a GNU
    Yes very similar - great minds, eh! :smile:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    :lol: Have you not being following how Mrs May works?

    She will announce a new trip to Brussels and a new vote in a week or two's time.

    There'll be a row, because precedence says you can't put same vote again in same session, but she'll argue there has been some minor textual change imho.
    Don't forget the lectern appearance which will excite everyone greatly for three hours until she stands up and announces NOTHING HAS CHANGED yet again.
    That's my favourite thing about the brexit shambles.

    In fairness not much will have changed if the EU won't budge, until the commons grows a spine and admits it never wanted to leave and has no intention of doing so.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    :lol: Have you not being following how Mrs May works?

    She will announce a new trip to Brussels and a new vote in a week or two's time.

    There'll be a row, because precedence says you can't put same vote again in same session, but she'll argue there has been some minor textual change imho.
    Presumably the minor textual change will be the addition of the words "nothing has changed"
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
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    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    But was that second referendum proposal after the first one had already been implemented.

    No one suggests you can't reverse a referendum after it has been implemented as indeed the 2016 referendum is to reverse what was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.
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    Anazina said:

    I must say it does take a politician of unique talents to make an important day on Brexit into a massive own-goal over some long-forgotten votes on the Welsh Assembly two decades ago.


    Indeed one can only wonder why someone didn't spot the flaw in the plan.
    These are, after all, the same people who told remainers that voting against her deal meant "no deal", and told leavers that voting against her deal meant "no brexit", and somehow overlooked that one side could hear what she was saying to the other side.

    Number 10's strong suit is not campaigning.
    Yes very true. May is like the Lib Dems in 2015.
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    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    And how does that help anything
    So what should happen instead?
    I expect that the amendments and the HOC will dictate the way forward and, as said, TM will act in a caretaker capacity until the way forward is agreed

    An alternative is she could come back and amend the MV by adding "subject to approval in a Referendum versus No Deal and Remain (with a consequent extension of A50)".

    That would pass in the HoC imo.

    In any event, we won't be exiting on March 29th.
    That is a variation on my early suggestion that the HOC will amend the deal to subject to a deal/ remain referendum and TM will enact the legislation on a cross party basis and effectively head a GNU
    Yes very similar - great minds, eh! :smile:
    Of course
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,072
    Sean_F said:

    I think she could have peeled off a handful of Labour MPs had she reached out, but there was no chance that Corbyn would ever agree to anything she came up with (why should he?) let alone the Lib Dems or SNP.

    Exactly right. Nor do I think a pivot towards Labour would work now unless it comes with what Corbyn and McDonnell surely want above all else - a 2019 general election and the opportunity to win power and set in train a massive and irreversible transfer of wealth and power in favour of working people. Type thing.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    And how does that help anything
    So what should happen instead?
    I expect that the amendments and the HOC will dictate the way forward and, as said, TM will act in a caretaker capacity until the way forward is agreed

    An alternative is she could come back and amend the MV by adding "subject to approval in a Referendum versus No Deal and Remain (with a consequent extension of A50)".

    That would pass in the HoC imo.

    In any event, we won't be exiting on March 29th.
    No deal as an option won't get through the Commons or the Lords.
    Getting through the lords is not a concern is it? The MV is just for the commons and the lords just not as it. If the commons did back no deal (Which it wont) would the lords just further scupper no deal prep legislation?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    As Big_G keeps saying, perhaps May is more popular out in the country than the commentators give credit for?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    It is hard to see how she can carry on if the deal goes down by a big margin.
    :lol: Have you not being following how Mrs May works?

    She will announce a new trip to Brussels and a new vote in a week or two's time.

    There'll be a row, because precedence says you can't put same vote again in same session, but she'll argue there has been some minor textual change imho.
    Don't forget the lectern appearance which will excite everyone greatly for three hours until she stands up and announces NOTHING HAS CHANGED yet again.
    That's my favourite thing about the brexit shambles.

    In fairness not much will have changed if the EU won't budge, until the commons grows a spine and admits it never wanted to leave and has no intention of doing so.
    May will have NOTHING HAS CHANGED chiselled on her headstone.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,765

    Sean_F said:


    The SNP helped Thatcher to power in 1979.

    So did the Libs. Karma finally caught up with them in 2015.
    Karma caught up with the SNP much sooner didn’t it?

    Wasn’t the 1979 GE when the SNP lost around half their MPs?
    9 out of 11 in fact.
    That’s an absolute fuckwangling.

    Why did they lose so many?
    Of the lost seats, only two could be considered safe, several were in the 1500-2000 majority and the rest were ultra marginal, including the lowest two which had majorities 0f 30 and 22 (the famous East Dumbartonshire 3-way split). They were therefore vulnerable to anti-government swings in the rural seats and a 'Vote Labour to keep out the Tories out' in urban seats.

    Nationally the SNP lost over 40% of their Oct 1974 voters, but the incumbents held this to much less, often losing by a few hundred or less votes.

    PS - this was the last election the Conservatives polled over 30% of the Scottish vote
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    As Big_G keeps saying, perhaps May is more popular out in the country than the commentators give credit for?
    Even if so its not helping her any.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
    Nevertheless some cover for any leaver bright enough to have worked out that their knee jerk opposition to the deal was a mistake.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Nothing has changed.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Anazina said:

    I must say it does take a politician of unique talents to make an important day on Brexit into a massive own-goal over some long-forgotten votes on the Welsh Assembly two decades ago.


    Indeed one can only wonder why someone didn't spot the flaw in the plan.
    These are, after all, the same people who told remainers that voting against her deal meant "no deal", and told leavers that voting against her deal meant "no brexit", and somehow overlooked that one side could hear what she was saying to the other side.

    Number 10's strong suit is not campaigning.
    Indeed. May has succeeded in destroying her own deal partly by her ridiculously contradictory stance predicting that defeating it would lead to both no deal and no Brexit, and partly because she sold it in such a downbeat fashion "this is the best deal available, I know it's not what you wanted but I couldn't do any better" rather than "this is a really good deal, the EU has backed down on the inviolability of the four freedoms, this give the UK the best of both worlds etc etc."
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
    Indeed. Waverers are not the issue, it's genuine switches from those rejecting the deal that is needed. And lots of them.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
    Nevertheless some cover for any leaver bright enough to have worked out that their knee jerk opposition to the deal was a mistake.
    Very thin cover. Many of the ERG painted themselves into a corner with very thick, very slow-drying paint.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
    Nevertheless some cover for any leaver bright enough to have worked out that their knee jerk opposition to the deal was a mistake.
    I think I have splotted a flaw in your argument.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    For the umpteenth time, May says she "doesn't believe" in extending Article 50 or a second referendum, but refuses point blank to rule out either. In others words, she is prepared in extremis to do both.

    — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 14, 2019

    This is key.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    But was that second referendum proposal after the first one had already been implemented.

    No one suggests you can't reverse a referendum after it has been implemented as indeed the 2016 referendum is to reverse what was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.
    Still don't see the logic in Mrs M trumpeting Parliaments support for Scottish and Welsh devolution after endorsement in a referendum, when she voted against herself?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    More astounding to see the yellow peril in double figures. Heralding a shift from the remainiac reds, following Jezza's outing on Marr?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Stephen Barclay said last week that there were "no plans" to extend A50, which is pretty much a textbook non-denial used when something is being actively considered.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    kle4 said:

    Lots of warm words and noble aspirations, but no material change to the WA. Does not, cannot, change any of the fundamental political realities, of course. But we all knew it couldn't.
    Indeed. Waverers are not the issue, it's genuine switches from those rejecting the deal that is needed. And lots of them.
    Don't exaggerate. Barely more than 100 switchers are required. Just as well she has plenty of time eh?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Barnesian said:

    For the umpteenth time, May says she "doesn't believe" in extending Article 50 or a second referendum, but refuses point blank to rule out either. In others words, she is prepared in extremis to do both.

    — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 14, 2019

    This is key.

    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1084786776848379906
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Part of the issue with Brexit is nobody has ever really wanted to take back control. Control is hard work, and we're clearly not willing or able as a nation to really put in the work to do it.

    What we want is the ILLUSION of control.

    Absolutely. MPs want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them without people thinking they are simply puppets on a string for the most part.
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    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though, as the rest have the two parties at level-pegging.

    The difference between YouGov and Survation is that the former puts Labour leavers at 20-25%, the latter has them at 30-35%.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,285
    To be fair to Boles (and several other of the 'conspirators'), they have said that they will vote in favour of May's deal before trying to force through their plan.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Anazina said:

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    Yes, the Welsh referendum example completely blows a hole in the government's 'undemocratic to have a second referendum' argument. To be honest, I'm surprised we hadn't thought of this one before now!!
    Another referendum after we leave is entirely democratic and what the Tories proposed in 2005.
    I agree with that. The 2005 policy to scrap the assembly is not hypocritical and entirely in keeping with a campaign to rejoin the EU after we have left.

    However, May (along with the Brexit crew et al.) voted against the Scottish Parliament after it had be passed by referendum with a 74% yes vote. That is rank hypocrisy of the worst sort now.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though.
    Yeah, it's interesting that this big discrepancy seems to have opened up between Yougov and everyone else, in both of their latest polls now
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    edited January 2019

    Barnesian said:

    For the umpteenth time, May says she "doesn't believe" in extending Article 50 or a second referendum, but refuses point blank to rule out either. In others words, she is prepared in extremis to do both.

    — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 14, 2019

    This is key.
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1084786776848379906
    If it's him then it's conservatives for remain, rather than for a referendum. May really needs at least the pretence that a referendum is not desired just as a route to remain.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    The only "Something Has Changed" I can see is that May asked the EU for the backstop to be time limited and the EU told her to bugger off.

    If anything, that should firm up opposition to May's Deal in tomorrow's vote.

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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though.
    Yeah, it's interesting that this big discrepancy seems to have opened up between Yougov and everyone else, in both of their latest polls now
    Owned by a Tory, or Putin, or a lizard.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    It expect a pretty big number would switch without the backstop. And I don't buy the EUs reasons for insisting on it. But I also think if they were going to break they'd have done it by now and they are prepared to see no deal rather than appear weaker.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
    Boris isn’t a hard Leaver. He always wanted a Canada style FTA like Davis.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:


    If it's him then it's conservatives for remain, rather than for a referendum. May really needs at least the pretence that a referendum is not desired just as a route to remain.

    Realistically what it will be is a coalition formed of groups who each actually just want one of the options. Nobody wants a referendum for its own sake- as is true for pretty much every referendum. Pretending otherwise would look ludicrous.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
    Boris isn’t a hard Leaver. He always wanted a Canada style FTA like Davis.
    On what planet is that not a hard Brexit?
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    IanB2 said:

    That's the bizarre thing. In that last respect, May got a deal that was better than many were expecting. Yet it was instantly trashed by much of her own party.

    In retrospect it should always have been obvious that that would be the case.
    Because she signed a backstop she spent 12 months insisting no PM could sign.

    Had she honoured her own word none of this would be a problem.
    Bollocks. The ERGers and your ultra-europhobic ilk would have found a problem somewhere.

    As someone beautifully put it, if one turned the Tory Right's water into wine they'd complain about the vintage.
    My only issue is the backstop same as May's was in the summer of last year.

    I'm not a Europhobe I nearly voted Remain but the backstop is an abomination.
    Garbage. The backstop is the best thing about the WA!
  • Options

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    But was that second referendum proposal after the first one had already been implemented.

    No one suggests you can't reverse a referendum after it has been implemented as indeed the 2016 referendum is to reverse what was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.

    They voted against implementing the result of the referendum.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,285

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
    Boris isn’t a hard Leaver. He always wanted a Canada style FTA like Davis.
    On what planet is that not a hard Brexit?
    Planet unicorn.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    Let’s hope so.
    Bring on Remain!
    I can think of nothing worse
    And I can think of nothing better!
    Apart from TM deal, I agree

    Just listened to Marie Caulfield of ERG, they are economic illiterates and a serious threat to all our futures

    They have to be stopped
    Caulfield is thick as pig shit. She is an embarrassment.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    kle4 said:


    If it's him then it's conservatives for remain, rather than for a referendum. May really needs at least the pretence that a referendum is not desired just as a route to remain.

    Realistically what it will be is a coalition formed of groups who each actually just want one of the options. Nobody wants a referendum for its own sake- as is true for pretty much every referendum. Pretending otherwise would look ludicrous.
    If it clearly just a remainer ploy May might not be able to back it. There is a difference between we must ask the people and we must remain so let's get the people to do that.

    As for looking ludicrous that's most of the people's vote campaign. Since they pretend it's about a final say but only because they think minds have changed.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Especially bad news for Labour in trying to hold those seats it won in 2017?
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
    Boris isn’t a hard Leaver. He always wanted a Canada style FTA like Davis.
    On what planet is that not a hard Brexit?
    The idea that a FTA is a hard Brexit is simply asinine. No deal is a hard Brexit.
  • Options

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    But was that second referendum proposal after the first one had already been implemented.

    No one suggests you can't reverse a referendum after it has been implemented as indeed the 2016 referendum is to reverse what was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.

    They voted against implementing the result of the referendum.

    Pretty shameless to go around claiming parliament's acceptance of the devolution referendums in your favour when she didn't support it herself, eh?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    kle4 said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    It expect a pretty big number would switch without the backstop. And I don't buy the EUs reasons for insisting on it. But I also think if they were going to break they'd have done it by now and they are prepared to see no deal rather than appear weaker.
    I think that quite a lot would switch, but (judging by Peter Bone's article on Con Home) quite a few would not. The complaints would centre on agreeing to make payments to the EU, fishing rights, not scrapping the jurisdiction of the ECJ overnight, and simply that any deal agreed to by the EU must be bad for us.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Anazina said:

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    Yes, the Welsh referendum example completely blows a hole in the government's 'undemocratic to have a second referendum' argument. To be honest, I'm surprised we hadn't thought of this one before now!!
    Because it is not the same situation. In the case of the Welsh Assembly the original result of the referendum had been enacted and the assembly had been set up in 1999. What is now being proposed is to have a second referendum before the first has even been enacted.

    Now I am very happy for you to have another referendum on rejoining the EU in, say, 9 or 10 years which would be exactly the same as what the Tories campaigned for in 2005.
    If you check the twitter thread you'll see that a number of leading Tories voted against establishing both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh assembly even after these had been endorsed by referendum.
    But that was not the point I was responding to. The Tories campaigning for a second referendum in 2005 is in no way comparable because the assembly had already been put in place by then. Like I say if you want to campaign for a second Brexit referendum once we have actually left then that is perfectly legitimate. But first we have to leave.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    IanB2 said:

    Anazina said:

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    Yes, the Welsh referendum example completely blows a hole in the government's 'undemocratic to have a second referendum' argument. To be honest, I'm surprised we hadn't thought of this one before now!!
    Because it is not the same situation. In the case of the Welsh Assembly the original result of the referendum had been enacted and the assembly had been set up in 1999. What is now being proposed is to have a second referendum before the first has even been enacted.

    Now I am very happy for you to have another referendum on rejoining the EU in, say, 9 or 10 years which would be exactly the same as what the Tories campaigned for in 2005.
    If you check the twitter thread you'll see that a number of leading Tories voted against establishing both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh assembly even after these had been endorsed by referendum.
    Indeed.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    When you open the box, the cat turned out to be dead all along.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't know if I am just worn down by this chaos but I seriously wonder if we are in the last week of May's Premiership in anything other than a caretaker capacity. She has run out of road and if her deal is rejected by 150+ tomorrow, which seems all too likely, she surely has to go.

    Let’s hope so.
    Bring on Remain!
    I can think of nothing worse
    And I can think of nothing better!
    Apart from TM deal, I agree

    Just listened to Marie Caulfield of ERG, they are economic illiterates and a serious threat to all our futures

    They have to be stopped
    Caulfield is thick as pig shit. She is an embarrassment.
    Presumably the Tories didn't expect her to win.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited January 2019

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Yes, no need to be burning wood in an urban environment. I'd hope this is rolled out council by council, and common sense prevails in more rural areas.

    In the home counties, it would be the ruination of the glamping sector ;)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    May. Wales. Oh dear.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Anorak said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Yes, no need to be burning wood in an urban environment. I'd hope this is rolled out by council by council and common sense prevails in more rural areas.

    In the home counties, it would be the ruination of the glamping sector ;)
    What happened to the clean air act? I thought wood fires in London were already banned.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    IanB2 said:

    Anazina said:

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    Yes, the Welsh referendum example completely blows a hole in the government's 'undemocratic to have a second referendum' argument. To be honest, I'm surprised we hadn't thought of this one before now!!
    Because it is not the same situation. In the case of the Welsh Assembly the original result of the referendum had been enacted and the assembly had been set up in 1999. What is now being proposed is to have a second referendum before the first has even been enacted.

    Now I am very happy for you to have another referendum on rejoining the EU in, say, 9 or 10 years which would be exactly the same as what the Tories campaigned for in 2005.
    If you check the twitter thread you'll see that a number of leading Tories voted against establishing both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh assembly even after these had been endorsed by referendum.
    But that was not the point I was responding to. The Tories campaigning for a second referendum in 2005 is in no way comparable because the assembly had already been put in place by then. Like I say if you want to campaign for a second Brexit referendum once we have actually left then that is perfectly legitimate. But first we have to leave.
    Given that the terms we have now are better than those we could return on, that would be dumb.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 2019

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    The U.K. is responsible for c 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions. Most of that 38% you are concerned about comes from wet logs, and coal, not kiln dried which most users burn. I see you are unconcerned though about breathing air polluted by German car manufacturers lying about diesel emissions.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jonathan said:

    May. Wales. Oh dear.

    It's actually worse with Scotland. There was 74% support at the referendum and she still voted against.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    As Big_G keeps saying, perhaps May is more popular out in the country than the commentators give credit for?

    One of the very few good things about this Brexit chaos is that the government is incapable of doing anything else. As almost all governments are hyperactive – faffing around with legislation for no good reason and causing unintended consequences for businesses, workers and families – its preoccupation with something else is a major selling point.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    DUP just said it isn't switching to support the deal
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited January 2019

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Nothing quite like a real open fire , you should know that living in north wales , that background smell of coal in the air that reminds you its winter again. Most of our air pollution blows over from Europe anyway, not much we can do about that
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.

    But it would start the two year clock again.....
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Indeed they are major polluters. As you say, the OP is completely ignorant about this.
  • Options

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    The U.K. is responsible for c 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions. Most of that 38% you are concerned about comes from wet logs, and coal, not kiln dried which most users burn. I see you are concerned though about breathing air polluted by German car manufacturers lying about diesel emissions.
    I am concerned about anything that makes or contributes to toxic air quality for my grand children
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077

    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.

    But it would start the two year clock again.....
    Well if we wanted to pretend we’re leaving indefinitely...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,317
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though, as the rest have the two parties at level-pegging.

    The difference between YouGov and Survation is that the former puts Labour leavers at 20-25%, the latter has them at 30-35%.
    Also, the YG poll is older (Jan 6-7) than the two latest polls showing respectively level pegging and a Labour lead.

    I don't honestly think that any of us can say definitely that anything is happening in party preference. Yet.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    IanB2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Yes, no need to be burning wood in an urban environment. I'd hope this is rolled out by council by council and common sense prevails in more rural areas.

    In the home counties, it would be the ruination of the glamping sector ;)
    What happened to the clean air act? I thought wood fires in London were already banned.
    London is not the only urban area in the UK! I'd ban them in any settlement above 50k people - although that number has no basis in any science or calculation whatsoever.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Gove isn't banning burners. He is introducing rules that mean only the more efficiently burning ones can be sold from 2022.

    Wet wood may be banned from sale (there is a consultation). So only seasoned can be sold. Not sure why anyone knows what they are doing with a fire would be burning wet wood anyway.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,317

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though, as the rest have the two parties at level-pegging.

    The difference between YouGov and Survation is that the former puts Labour leavers at 20-25%, the latter has them at 30-35%.
    Also, the YG poll is older (Jan 6-7) than the two latest polls showing respectively level pegging and a Labour lead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I don't honestly think that any of us can say definitely that anything is happening in party preference. Yet.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.

    But it would start the two year clock again.....
    Which would be very helpful. In the circumstances.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    If it's him then it's conservatives for remain, rather than for a referendum. May really needs at least the pretence that a referendum is not desired just as a route to remain.

    Realistically what it will be is a coalition formed of groups who each actually just want one of the options. Nobody wants a referendum for its own sake- as is true for pretty much every referendum. Pretending otherwise would look ludicrous.
    If it clearly just a remainer ploy May might not be able to back it. There is a difference between we must ask the people and we must remain so let's get the people to do that.

    As for looking ludicrous that's most of the people's vote campaign. Since they pretend it's about a final say but only because they think minds have changed.
    What I'm saying is that it won't be just a remainer ploy because it will also be a May's Deal ploy. Her deal is dead, but it being voted for in a referendum would probably be sufficient defribulation to bring it back to life
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,317
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.

    But it would start the two year clock again.....
    Well if we wanted to pretend we’re leaving indefinitely...
    Does that mean we could keep arguing about Brexit FOREVER?

    Yay!
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    The U.K. is responsible for c 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions. Most of that 38% you are concerned about comes from wet logs, and coal, not kiln dried which most users burn. I see you are unconcerned though about breathing air polluted by German car manufacturers lying about diesel emissions.
    Has Big G previously spoken in support of German car manufacturers lying or is this just a particularly bizarre attempt at whataboutery?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kjohnw said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Most of our air pollution blows over from Europe anyway, not much we can do about that
    Against the prevailing wind? Hmm.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Anorak said:

    IanB2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Yes, no need to be burning wood in an urban environment. I'd hope this is rolled out by council by council and common sense prevails in more rural areas.

    In the home counties, it would be the ruination of the glamping sector ;)
    What happened to the clean air act? I thought wood fires in London were already banned.
    London is not the only urban area in the UK! I'd ban them in any settlement above 50k people - although that number has no basis in any science or calculation whatsoever.
    It's the only one Khan has any responsibility for, and downthread it is claimed he was asking for the powers.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 2019

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    The U.K. is responsible for c 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions. Most of that 38% you are concerned about comes from wet logs, and coal, not kiln dried which most users burn. I see you are concerned though about breathing air polluted by German car manufacturers lying about diesel emissions.
    I am concerned about anything that makes or contributes to toxic air quality for my grand children
    Which is very reasonable but begs the question why you are not more concerned about Gove’s misguided priorities. Primacy of consumer interests should be paramount.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    IanB2 said:

    Remember there is nothing stopping us revoking then reinvoking Article 50. The ‘no mischief’ clause was not part of the official ruling.

    But it would start the two year clock again.....
    Which would be very helpful. In the circumstances.
    For a new PM. And a new set of civil servants.....
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Shameless, mendacious and hypocritical. God bless the Buccaneering Brexiteers and our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1084607886095982592?s=21

    But was that second referendum proposal after the first one had already been implemented.

    No one suggests you can't reverse a referendum after it has been implemented as indeed the 2016 referendum is to reverse what was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.

    They voted against implementing the result of the referendum.

    Is there some way of making this post a stickie? Otherwise we will enter into Charlie Falconer resignation territory vis a vis endless notices pointing out the same thing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    IanB2 said:

    Anorak said:

    IanB2 said:


    What happened to the clean air act? I thought wood fires in London were already banned.

    London is not the only urban area in the UK! I'd ban them in any settlement above 50k people - although that number has no basis in any science or calculation whatsoever.
    It's the only one Khan has any responsibility for, and downthread it is claimed he was asking for the powers.
    Ah. Fair enough, missed that.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Gove isn't banning burners. He is introducing rules that mean only the more efficiently burning ones can be sold from 2022.

    Wet wood may be banned from sale (there is a consultation). So only seasoned can be sold. Not sure why anyone knows what they are doing with a fire would be burning wet wood anyway.
    Because wood burners are not bought by people who know about fire. They are lifestyle items in the main.
  • Options

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    For at least some of the hard Leavers (*coughBoris*) it's more about their own political careers than anything else. Being able to scream "betrayal" is potentially advantageous for them
    Boris isn’t a hard Leaver. He always wanted a Canada style FTA like Davis.
    On what planet is that not a hard Brexit?
    Where a hard Brexit is no deal.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Jonathan said:

    May. Wales. Oh dear.


    The Celtic Nations have conspired, not necessarily to her advantage.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Anorak said:

    kjohnw said:

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    ERG want TM to go back to Brussels and remove the backstop. However, that is a front for their actual position of wanting us to crash out, so even if she did get more change, they would come up with another reason against the deal. They are incredibly naive or just blind to the fact they represent less than 15% of the HOC and virtually nil in the HOL and no deal will be stopped

    Gove is excellent in his current role and is addressing very serious issues affecting air quality which is especially dangerous to all our children and grand children
    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    Most of our air pollution blows over from Europe anyway, not much we can do about that
    Against the prevailing wind? Hmm.
    On a South-westerly in Devon, the nearest source of pollution would be NE Brazil.....

    (That said, Atlantic shipping burning bunker fuel doesn't half make some horrible-looking pollution.)
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Grieve and Boles are getting plenty of air time on their plans but not a word from the ERG about what they’ll do when May loses her deal. I wonder if they have given it any thought. Sadly, I suspect the answer is probably not given how they were too idle to come up with an alternative plan at any stage during the last 2 years.

    Gove seems to have given up on Brexit too and is now preoccupied with pedantry - banning the sale of coal and word for domestic heating. It’s pathetic.

    If that is true, it’s intellectually lazy because securing the backstop has been the central focus of the EU negotiations for the last 2 years.

    Gove is an idiot for trying to ban wood burners. German car manufacturers can lie about their diesel emissions with impunity and freely pollute the atmosphere but wood burners which arm no one are to be banned. It’s fatuous. Still, I suppose it will provide a boost to his mates benefitting from the ROC’s in renewables projects.
    With respect you obviously do not know that wood burners and fires account for upto 38% of damaging particulate matter in the UK. Sadiq Khan and other councils have already asked for powers to curtail them due to their effect on air quality and the unseen damage they contribute to
    The U.K. is responsible for c 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions. Most of that 38% you are concerned about comes from wet logs, and coal, not kiln dried which most users burn. I see you are concerned though about breathing air polluted by German car manufacturers lying about diesel emissions.
    I am concerned about anything that makes or contributes to toxic air quality for my grand children
    Which is very reasonable but begs the question why you are not more concerned about Gove’s misguided priorities. Primacy of consumer interests should be paramount.
    Gove is addressing a major source of particulates that is not currently being dealt with.

    The one you're referring to is already being addressed by taxation on polluting cars, by government policy to phase out IC engines in cars, by VW being fined a bazillion pounds, and by processes and improved testing being put in place to make sure it can't happen again.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not possible. Sorry, just not possible. Corbyn could be the evil ghost of Karl Marx, how could this gov hold it's level like that?
    YouGov's Chris Curtis tweeting that Labour is down 7% among Remainers (on 2017), only 3% among Leavers... and they had twice as many Remainers to begin with.

    Corbyn's equivocation strategy can't hold and we're starting to see that.
    Hence the LibDems inching back into double figures
    YouGov is something of an outlier though, as the rest have the two parties at level-pegging.

    The difference between YouGov and Survation is that the former puts Labour leavers at 20-25%, the latter has them at 30-35%.
    Also, the YG poll is older (Jan 6-7) than the two latest polls showing respectively level pegging and a Labour lead.

    I don't honestly think that any of us can say definitely that anything is happening in party preference. Yet.
    More to the point, anyone who pays any attention to individual polls amid this utter chaos is a madman.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2019
    Alistair said:


    I agree with that. The 2005 policy to scrap the assembly is not hypocritical and entirely in keeping with a campaign to rejoin the EU after we have left.

    However, May (along with the Brexit crew et al.) voted against the Scottish Parliament after it had be passed by referendum with a 74% yes vote. That is rank hypocrisy of the worst sort now.
    To be fair they voted against the referendum. Many of those wanting no Brexit now voted for the referendum.
This discussion has been closed.