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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes”

135678

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580
    With the chair of the 1922 in the middle of the bunch!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    stjohn said:

    Nandy voted No to May's deal because she doesn't like May's tone today. I would have voted on the merits or otherwise of the deal.

    Good for you. But tone is vital in politics as anywhere else. May's tone is one of the reasons we are where we are.
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    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No - it seats 427.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No. The House only seats 400 people.
    425, isn't it?

    The chance to rebuild it with a higher capacity after it was bombed in the Second World War was foolishly rejected, I believe by Churchill.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Result:

    Ayes 202
    Noes 432
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    That's it, man. Game over, man. Game over! What the fuck are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,176
    edited January 2019
    Deleted
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580
    Boom!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    220!!!!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    ouch
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,176
    edited January 2019
    230 vote defeat!!!!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Nothing has changed.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    230 not 220
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    That is an absolute hammering, at the very worse end of the scale.
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    What comes next is going to be very interesting
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Has TM resigned yet? :D
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Government defeat by 230.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Two fewer would have been perfect. But I mustn’t be greedy.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Someone pass Tezza a bottle of Scotch and a revolver
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Is she about to suggest a 2nd Referendum?
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    Calling a vonc on her government
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    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No - it seats 427.

    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No. The House only seats 400 people.
    Hmmm.... so in addition to abolishing the House of Unelected Has-Beens, I would build a bigger chamber for the Lower House - if I was in charge :)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    VONC if Jezza - or anyone else - wants it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    SNP can go VONC!
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    GIN1138 said:

    Has TM resigned yet? :D

    No. The HoC will be voting again in an hour on her Deal and then again in two hours, etc etc, until they pass it.

    She is too busy to resign
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692

    What comes next is going to be very interesting

    In the Chinese proverb sense!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Even larger than the largest predictions? Pathetic.

    I hope the bitter enemies enjoy rubbing shoulders with one another.

    If there is not a newspaper with the headline 'The night Brexit died' I will be stunned. And they will be right.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Floater said:

    230 not 220

    No Labour voter can add up. A bit much to expect us to subtract. ;)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    Ouch!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Oh and Lloyd Russell-Moyle is about to be suspended from the Commons again for taking pictures in the lobby.

    So that's one of the useless [insert expletive from Latin here] down.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's the government payroll vote?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Brexit is dead.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    dixiedean said:

    Floater said:

    230 not 220

    No Labour voter can add up. A bit much to expect us to subtract. ;)
    LOL
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    Rhymes with "Clucking Bell"
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Remember when they were trying to sell a potential loss of 100 as a win? It's amazing how it's just been going backwards from the start.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    Sandpit said:

    Ouch!

    That was my first thought...
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    ydoethur said:

    Oh and Lloyd Russell-Moyle is about to be suspended from the Commons again for taking pictures in the lobby.

    So that's one of the useless [insert expletive from Latin here] down.

    He is an utter knob
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Three gross voted against the Deal.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Tezza intends to press on regardless
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Pisses me off with how light-heartedly they’re doing this.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    May's duty to deliver on the Brexit voters' instruction.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    So, no plan B.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    I think that’s Game Over.

    No way of coming back from that.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I have decided that Ethiopian coffee is the pits. I will stick with Italian or Colombian.
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    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote
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    AndyJS said:
    Corbyn just said it was the biggest defeat since the '20s. So who is correct?
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    No, largest defeat ever, Jeremy. Not just since the 1920s.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Clearly some of my assumed wobblers stayed firm.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    AndyJS said:
    Corbyn just said it was the biggest defeat since the '20s. So who is correct?
    Jones, for once.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    stjohn said:

    Is she about to suggest a 2nd Referendum?

    No!
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    AndyJS said:
    Corbyn just said it was the biggest defeat since the '20s. So who is correct?
    Corbyn was wrong, Macdonald went down by 166 only
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
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    I have decided that Ethiopian coffee is the pits. I will stick with Italian or Colombian.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopi_Luwak
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    That it would
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    May is moving a VoNC in herself and calling cross party talks according to Harry Cole.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    How can he not? I don't think he has the numbers tbh, the party will close ranks and win the confidence vote.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    VONC!!!!!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    May is moving a VoNC in herself and calling cross party talks according to Harry Cole.

    Labour call VONC
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    So, no plan B.

    I thought that Plan B was to vote on Plan A until it passes or all MPs die of boredom?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843

    May's duty to deliver on the Brexit voters' instruction.

    Well the deal is quite clearly a dodo, so full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations has to start tomorrow.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Does Olly Robbins still get his bonus ?
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    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    Shut the fuck up man. The more you rant the more you lose
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    May's duty to deliver on the Brexit voters' instruction.

    And if the instructions cannot be delivered?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL Corbyn ranting moron
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
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    Vonc tomorrow
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    ydoethur said:

    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No. The House only seats 400 people.
    425, isn't it?

    The chance to rebuild it with a higher capacity after it was bombed in the Second World War was foolishly rejected, I believe by Churchill.
    Was it all that foolish? How often does everyone need to sit down in there at the same time?

    It's like saying that lower league football teams all ought to have a capacity of 25,000 because they could probably fill it once in a blue moon when they draw Man City in the cup.

    It probably just wasn't worth the expense of doing for the handful of occasions when it's busy and it'd be nice for some backbench nonentity to be able to rest his arse-cheeks.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Corbyn throttlewanks his ending.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    edited January 2019
    May determined to fight on like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, with the same likelihood of success.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    I'm pretty sure that if so, either the SNP or Lib Dems will, and May has apparently said they'd debate it if so.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Corbyn too thick to re-calculate the numbers from his pre-written speech.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Fun and games tomorrow then
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,526
    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    Ayes 202
    Noes 432

    326 Politics were pretty accurate at 24 hours, but went to 208 in their final version.

    https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1084927547643781120?s=19
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    Shut the fuck up man. The more you rant the more you lose
    This moment is an epic humiliation for the government, which deserves to be replaces by a pot of unripe tomatoes such is its uselessness, I don't think him ranting means he loses anything right now, he could be doing nothing but laughing at her.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    TGOHF said:

    Corbyn throttlewanks his ending.

    *love*
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    So, when does she think she is off to chat with the EU?
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    kle4 said:

    May's duty to deliver on the Brexit voters' instruction.

    And if the instructions cannot be delivered?
    Well they can be delivered. Just not by this Parliament.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,244
    Amazing what the fuck happens now?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

    There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

    I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TOPPING said:

    Amazing what the fuck happens now?

    Strap in and enjoy the ride
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    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    When you exclude Speaker and deputies and tellers, not many abstentions.....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The entire ERG switching would not be enough.
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    Neill now asking the obvious question - how the actual fuck can the PM get utterly demolished on her only major policy and still say "I carry on"
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    TGOHF said:

    Corbyn throttlewanks his ending.

    I presume the BBC are going to edit that bit out.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So those Con MPs that voted for Mrs May before Xmas - buyers remorse ?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267

    Be funny if Jezbollah bottles it and doesn't call a confidence vote

    Shut the fuck up man. The more you rant the more you lose
    Would you like to be alone with yourself?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    I very much doubt if Remain would win, and if so it would be by a very narrow margin.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TGOHF said:

    So those Con MPs that voted for Mrs May before Xmas - buyers remorse ?

    She should have been put out to grass then.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited January 2019
    Incidentally @TheWhiteRabbit I am very sad to inform you that I believe I have won our bet. It's one I really, really hoped I would lose.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    This is the crazy part, how will Labour win the VoNC?
This discussion has been closed.