Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes”

124678

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The entire ERG switching would not be enough.
    I meant among the public, but the point remains true.

    When you exclude Speaker and deputies and tellers, not many abstentions.....

    Good. Any on this issue would be silliness.

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    You must be joking. Sure, not winning the vote diverts attention for like 5 microseconds, but it would still be for the government to get something through, all the focus and pressure will be on them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Laura Kuenssberg

    @bbclaurak

    DUP will back the govt in confidence vote tomorrow

    So she'll win this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    D'y'know, I'm quite saddened by this. Our elected representatives capering like children, dancing on the lip of disaster and caring not. I don't care how much they're paid, it's too much. Silly, silly people... :(
  • tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

    No, it isn't legally. She'd have 14 days to win a further confidence vote, else Parliament would be dissolved.

    Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019
    For the people that think the changes in cable are somehow indicative of Brexit.

    Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Just to be very clear: the outcome of tonight’s vote is that we’ll get an ever softer Brexit deal or no Brexit at all, not a harder one.

    I fully expect the ERGers to then blame anyone but themselves for that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    MaxPB said:

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    This is the crazy part, how will Labour win the VoNC?
    They won't.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Theresa May’s Brexit Deal Is Crushed by Parliament, Sending Britain Into Uncharted Waters"

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/world/europe/brexit-vote-theresa-may.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Betfair odds imply there's still something like a 1/3 chance of a deal being passed by March 29. That seems far too high, doesn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
  • As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Andrew Neil is not happy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    How can anyone have confidence in this lot?

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited January 2019
    AndyJS said:


    There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?

    Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.

    If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    viewcode said:

    D'y'know, I'm quite saddened by this. Our elected representatives capering like children, dancing on the lip of disaster and caring not. I don't care how much they're paid, it's too much. Silly, silly people... :(

    It makes me want to vote to Leave Westminster, as well as the EU.
  • Just to be very clear: the outcome of tonight’s vote is that we’ll get an ever softer Brexit deal or no Brexit at all, not a harder one.

    I fully expect the ERGers to then blame anyone but themselves for that.

    Norway or remain
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited January 2019
    Well done, Ollie Robbins. You and your clusterfuck of a negotiation have brought us to this point.

    If you have any shame, you will go and herd goats in Patagonia. First flight out tomorrow.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell
  • Neil now shish-kebabing poor Matt Hancock who is still insisting that May carrying on and nothing changing is in the national interest
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

    I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
    I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,054

    I have decided that Ethiopian coffee is the pits. I will stick with Italian or Colombian.

    Mocha sidamo from Waitrose is quite good Ethiopian.

    Ethiopian green coffee (ie unroasted) is also interesting, but not coffee as we know it.

    https://www.redber.co.uk/products/ethiopian-yirgacheffe-green-coffee-beans
  • Two fewer would have been perfect. But I mustn’t be greedy.

    A near-perfect result! Many thanks for doing all the research. You nailed it.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Ironically apparently if she won the vote, the DUP would have voted against her in a VONC. As she's lost, they'll support her.


    We live in strange times.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    That is a a shameful bit of propaganda.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.
  • Question- when was the last time that a government lost by MORE than 230 votes?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'
    The man worth many votes for leave - yuk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    For you to change the deal, numptie.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

    No, it isn't legally. She'd have 14 days to win a further confidence vote, else Parliament would be dissolved.

    Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.
    Even under the old rules, Prime Ministers only had to resign with some promptness. Jim Callaghan took eight days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2019

    Neill now asking the obvious question - how the actual fuck can the PM get utterly demolished on her only major policy and still say "I carry on"

    The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Ave_it said:

    A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!

    No, they won't
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Floater said:

    Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

    No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    When you exclude Speaker and deputies and tellers, not many abstentions.....

    I think only 1, I assume the MP for Newport West?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Question- when was the last time that a government lost by MORE than 230 votes?

    Never. Its a record.
  • kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
    I'm sorry to say it reminds me of a lot of Lib Dems in the Coalition years, and a lot of Corbynites more recently.

    There are plenty of people who love the purity of being able to be utterly appalled by the c*cks in charge forever, and are utterly terrified of owning it when the prospect arises that they might become the c*cks in charge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'
    Why will they never learn to keep their stupid mouths shut? Bearing in mind if Juncker had been more circumspect we might not have voted out in the first place.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2019
    Just put a tenner on Matt Hancock at 65/1 to be next CON leader. He comes over better than any of them
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Well done, Ollie Robbins. You and your clusterfuck of a negotiation have brought us to this point.

    If you have any shame, you will go and herd goats in Patagonia. First flight out tomorrow.

    I think it's very poor form to blame civil servants for acting entirely in accordance with the wishes and instructions of the Prime Minister.

    This is the deal her red lines have wrought.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'
    Tusk always manages to say the wrong thing at the wrong time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    FF43 said:

    For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

    That has been increasingly inevitable given the stance of the ERG.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

    No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.
    I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    Question- when was the last time that a government lost by MORE than 230 votes?

    Never.
  • So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited January 2019
    Assume PMQ is not happening tomorrow

    Looks like vonc result will be at 7.00pm tomorrow
  • So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    TGOHF said:

    So those Con MPs that voted for Mrs May before Xmas - buyers remorse ?

    The Tory party like castrated PMs (or whatever the equivalent is for a woman - spayed?). It allows them to act like children with no repercussions. They only feel guilty about it if they los an election thereafter, but in the moment they are as giddy as schoolchums.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    FF43 said:

    For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

    I think we’ll Remain too.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Sandpit said:

    Neill now asking the obvious question - how the actual fuck can the PM get utterly demolished on her only major policy and still say "I carry on"

    The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.
    + Rules on Conservative (lack of) leadership elections
  • Neil now shish-kebabing poor Matt Hancock who is still insisting that May carrying on and nothing changing is in the national interest

    One Matt in Hancock and the world's your oyster
    The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free
    You'll find a god in every Tory cloister
    A little flesh, a little history
    I can feel Theresa sliding up to me

    One Matt in Hancock makes a Leaver humble
    Not much between despair and ecstasy
    One Matt in Hancock and the deals they tumble
    Can't be too careful with your company
    I can feel Theresa walking next to me
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Hancock out of his depth.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
    So nothing happens, and we get No deal...
    Fine.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    dodrade said:
    And we’ve played straight into their hands.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So Juncker has again said ........ no more negotiations. Surprise.

    What now for the loons?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Assume PMQ is not happening tomorrow

    Looks like vonc result will be at 7.00pm tomorrow

    It is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Why does Matt Hancock get let out on his own?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    dodrade said:

    May determined to fight on like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, with the same likelihood of success.

    +1 Perhaps she could bite Tusks ankles
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
    Certainly I was mistaken in my belief that JRM, David Davis, DominicRabb etc actually supported Brexit. It was all just a game.

    I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Well done, Ollie Robbins. You and your clusterfuck of a negotiation have brought us to this point.

    If you have any shame, you will go and herd goats in Patagonia. First flight out tomorrow.

    I think it's very poor form to blame civil servants for acting entirely in accordance with the wishes and instructions of the Prime Minister.

    This is the deal her red lines have wrought.
    Any other sphere of activity, someone who delivered such a catastrophic outcome would be being taken from the buillding by security.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

    No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.
    I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........
    If we do Remain, the counter-revolution comes next and I expect that’ll include a strong movement for us to join the euro as well.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Andrew said:

    AndyJS said:


    There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?

    Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.

    If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.

    Where are are the Sinners when you need them. Surely they can cross their fingers when affirming - the ends justify the means.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

    No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.
    I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........
    If we do Remain, the counter-revolution comes next and I expect that’ll include a strong movement for us to join the euro as well.
    They can fuck right off
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.

    Indeed and I am worried about those letterboxes tomorrow as well. You were right all along Alastair, Brexit is distracting us from the important stuff.
  • So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

    Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

  • So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?

    ERG
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?

    He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    FF43 said:

    For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

    I think we’ll Remain too.
    By what mechanism before 29/3 ? We leave with no deal by default. Even TM said tonight Britain could make a success of no deal, so I don’t think she will revoke A50 it would destroy the Tory party to do so
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    For the people that think the changes in cable are somehow indicative of Brexit.

    Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.

    I have noticed that. It's been rising against EUR & USD for a couple of days now. I think the markets are taking the turmoil as an indicator that Brexit will be revoked. I can't help thinking they're going to have a rude awakening... :(
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    BREXIT via a Customs Union looks likely IMO

    Jezza been saying this for 2 yeats.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

    Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
    But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
    And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
    The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
    Certainly I was mistaken in my belief that JRM, David Davis, DominicRabb etc actually supported Brexit. It was all just a game.

    I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.
    I remember back in 2005 David Davis at a leadership hustings portraying himself as the pro-EU candidate, that only an idiot would propose changing our EU grouping, that our future was inside the EU.

    He never got over being beaten by David Cameron and did everything thereafter to spite Dave, who even offered Davis a cabinet job back in 2010.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    118 tory rebels lol
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

    Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

    Hardly SO. The VONC has been talked about for months. I don't think they have a plan beyond that, as they can block lots of things, but have very little power to enact anything.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?

    The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Full list of Tory rebels (118)

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-suffered-the-worst-defeat-in

    Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Laura Kuenssberg doing her "unofficial spokesman for the Prime Minister" schtick.

    She is a fucking terrible journalist - just parrots whatever line is available
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Full list of Tory rebels (118)

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-suffered-the-worst-defeat-in

    Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.

    How can she stay?
  • So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

    Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

    Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722


    Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?

    He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
    Is TM a He!!
  • So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday

    No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)

    A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)

    Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
  • PMQ s as usual and then vonc
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Anazina said:

    Laura Kuenssberg doing her "unofficial spokesman for the Prime Minister" schtick.

    She is a fucking terrible journalist - just parrots whatever line is available
    Yawn.
  • Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.

    The only privately-owned station on the National Rail network.

    (factoid of the day for you guys!)
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

    No - it seats 427.
    That surely depends on how cosy they are.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230


    Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?

    He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
    I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

    No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

    Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

    Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
    I think that the government will end up giving way on this. I don't see any other way through. And even then...
  • So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday

    No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)

    A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)

    Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)

    Looks about right.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Today's Daily Mail editorial urging a vote in favour of the Deal failed to carry the day.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DUP telling TM to go to Brussels and tell them no deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273

    So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?

    Probably the ERG.

    I think, though some will say that constitutionally he cannot intervene, the position and inclination of the Speaker will be telling in the end. Those in the HoC opposed to No Deal will be found a way to prevent it. IMO.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday

    No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)

    A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)

    Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)

    Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Andrew said:

    AndyJS said:


    There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?

    Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.

    If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.

    What happens if given the scale of the debate the DUP changes its mind and gives up on May? It states that it no longer has confidence in May personally, but would be prepared to support a different Conservative PM who they could trust in subsequent dealings with the EU? So they say they will vote against the government in tomorrow's VONC but also say that they anticipate voting to support a new government put together within the 14 days by a different Conservative leader?

    A high risk strategy, I know, because the one stumbling block is that May is so pig headeed that she might well not resign even if she lost the VONC, and the Conservative Party has no apparent mechanism to force her out.
This discussion has been closed.