That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
The entire ERG switching would not be enough.
I meant among the public, but the point remains true.
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
You must be joking. Sure, not winning the vote diverts attention for like 5 microseconds, but it would still be for the government to get something through, all the focus and pressure will be on them.
D'y'know, I'm quite saddened by this. Our elected representatives capering like children, dancing on the lip of disaster and caring not. I don't care how much they're paid, it's too much. Silly, silly people...
That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
D'y'know, I'm quite saddened by this. Our elected representatives capering like children, dancing on the lip of disaster and caring not. I don't care how much they're paid, it's too much. Silly, silly people...
It makes me want to vote to Leave Westminster, as well as the EU.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
I'm sorry to say it reminds me of a lot of Lib Dems in the Coalition years, and a lot of Corbynites more recently.
There are plenty of people who love the purity of being able to be utterly appalled by the c*cks in charge forever, and are utterly terrified of owning it when the prospect arises that they might become the c*cks in charge.
Why will they never learn to keep their stupid mouths shut? Bearing in mind if Juncker had been more circumspect we might not have voted out in the first place.
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
So those Con MPs that voted for Mrs May before Xmas - buyers remorse ?
The Tory party like castrated PMs (or whatever the equivalent is for a woman - spayed?). It allows them to act like children with no repercussions. They only feel guilty about it if they los an election thereafter, but in the moment they are as giddy as schoolchums.
Neil now shish-kebabing poor Matt Hancock who is still insisting that May carrying on and nothing changing is in the national interest
One Matt in Hancock and the world's your oyster The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free You'll find a god in every Tory cloister A little flesh, a little history I can feel Theresa sliding up to me
One Matt in Hancock makes a Leaver humble Not much between despair and ecstasy One Matt in Hancock and the deals they tumble Can't be too careful with your company I can feel Theresa walking next to me
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
Certainly I was mistaken in my belief that JRM, David Davis, DominicRabb etc actually supported Brexit. It was all just a game.
I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.
Indeed and I am worried about those letterboxes tomorrow as well. You were right all along Alastair, Brexit is distracting us from the important stuff.
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.
I think we’ll Remain too.
By what mechanism before 29/3 ? We leave with no deal by default. Even TM said tonight Britain could make a success of no deal, so I don’t think she will revoke A50 it would destroy the Tory party to do so
For the people that think the changes in cable are somehow indicative of Brexit.
Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.
I have noticed that. It's been rising against EUR & USD for a couple of days now. I think the markets are taking the turmoil as an indicator that Brexit will be revoked. I can't help thinking they're going to have a rude awakening...
That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.
Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.
But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.
And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.
The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.
Certainly I was mistaken in my belief that JRM, David Davis, DominicRabb etc actually supported Brexit. It was all just a game.
I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.
I remember back in 2005 David Davis at a leadership hustings portraying himself as the pro-EU candidate, that only an idiot would propose changing our EU grouping, that our future was inside the EU.
He never got over being beaten by David Cameron and did everything thereafter to spite Dave, who even offered Davis a cabinet job back in 2010.
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
Hardly SO. The VONC has been talked about for months. I don't think they have a plan beyond that, as they can block lots of things, but have very little power to enact anything.
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
I think that the government will end up giving way on this. I don't see any other way through. And even then...
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
Probably the ERG.
I think, though some will say that constitutionally he cannot intervene, the position and inclination of the Speaker will be telling in the end. Those in the HoC opposed to No Deal will be found a way to prevent it. IMO.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?
Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.
If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.
What happens if given the scale of the debate the DUP changes its mind and gives up on May? It states that it no longer has confidence in May personally, but would be prepared to support a different Conservative PM who they could trust in subsequent dealings with the EU? So they say they will vote against the government in tomorrow's VONC but also say that they anticipate voting to support a new government put together within the 14 days by a different Conservative leader?
A high risk strategy, I know, because the one stumbling block is that May is so pig headeed that she might well not resign even if she lost the VONC, and the Conservative Party has no apparent mechanism to force her out.
Comments
@bbclaurak
DUP will back the govt in confidence vote tomorrow
So she'll win this.
Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.
Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.
I fully expect the ERGers to then blame anyone but themselves for that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/world/europe/brexit-vote-theresa-may.html
If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.
If you have any shame, you will go and herd goats in Patagonia. First flight out tomorrow.
Ethiopian green coffee (ie unroasted) is also interesting, but not coffee as we know it.
https://www.redber.co.uk/products/ethiopian-yirgacheffe-green-coffee-beans
We live in strange times.
There are plenty of people who love the purity of being able to be utterly appalled by the c*cks in charge forever, and are utterly terrified of owning it when the prospect arises that they might become the c*cks in charge.
This is the deal her red lines have wrought.
Looks like vonc result will be at 7.00pm tomorrow
The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free
You'll find a god in every Tory cloister
A little flesh, a little history
I can feel Theresa sliding up to me
One Matt in Hancock makes a Leaver humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy
One Matt in Hancock and the deals they tumble
Can't be too careful with your company
I can feel Theresa walking next to me
Fine.
What now for the loons?
I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
Jezza been saying this for 2 yeats.
He never got over being beaten by David Cameron and did everything thereafter to spite Dave, who even offered Davis a cabinet job back in 2010.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-suffered-the-worst-defeat-in
Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
(factoid of the day for you guys!)
I think, though some will say that constitutionally he cannot intervene, the position and inclination of the Speaker will be telling in the end. Those in the HoC opposed to No Deal will be found a way to prevent it. IMO.
A high risk strategy, I know, because the one stumbling block is that May is so pig headeed that she might well not resign even if she lost the VONC, and the Conservative Party has no apparent mechanism to force her out.