politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in the House.

Read the full story here


«1345678

Comments

  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    The pressure will be put on Corbyn to commit to a referendum...
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.

    Don't pox viruses effect the nervous system ?

    It's not a matter of certainty then that the ERG are capable of succumbing.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited January 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.

    Given they appear be w***kers, how will they catch it?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.

    Don't pox viruses effect the nervous system ?

    It's not a matter of certainty then that the ERG are capable of succumbing.
    That’s why I want them to contract syphilis.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    You can live with no deal in the safety of Dubai, those of who will have to deal with it on a daily basis aren’t so keen.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    Osbo would be PM and Cameron would be getting ready to take over as NATO SecGen.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.

    I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.

    Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.

    On predictions, here's something that might happen:
    May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
    Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
    Deal loses, second referendum occurs.

    Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
    The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
    It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
    Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.

    So where do we go from here?
    I would restate my view on a second referendum. I think it only works where the country collectively decides it made a mistake about Brexit and is looking for an out. So in that case "May's Deal" as the Leave alternative could be OK. But you would want to be pretty certain Remain will win.

    Otherwise the long grass would be the way to go. Note that the country (narrowly) decided to leave European Union. Note also that no acceptable way of leaving the EU has yet been found. Revoke Article 50. Set up a Commission to establish a path that will work for most of the stakeholders. And let that process take its course.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    I think "Let's" is doing a lot of work here.

    Should be "Why don't you lot.."
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    Yes, he is too thick to realise that the resulting economic collapse will destroy the government finances and stop him paying for all the goodies.

    I guess they'll just print the money.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.

    Oh well, I'm still a virgin. Pure.

    :innocent:
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    edited January 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    Osbo would be PM and Cameron would be getting ready to take over as NATO SecGen.
    What about the real sliding doors moment, when Osborne told him he was "crazy" to go for referendum.

    What if Cameron had listened?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
  • Options
    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Priority is to keep establishing symbolic majority votes against No Deal and build a majority for an extension. Baby steps and both easier I suspect than constructing majorities for a WA and/or a VONC.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mps-to-be-offered-knock-out-voting-system-to-break-logjam-on-brexit_uk_5c3e6dc9e4b0922a21d9acbd?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Slackbladder said:

    The pressure will be put on Corbyn to commit to a referendum...

    Yep, Labour finally runs out of fence.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    Dave is against AV, that's for sure!

    For example: David Cameron's "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency would create a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    Yes, he is too thick to realise that the resulting economic collapse will destroy the government finances and stop him paying for all the goodies.

    I guess they'll just print the money.
    Siege economy. This whole approach was part and parcel of the mid70s strategy of Corbyn's antecedents.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pox on all Leavers.

    An STD as well for all of the ERG.

    Re. the latter. Can viruses get a virus themselves?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    Hence, the promise that they'll do no confidence after no confidence etc etc.

    This is not a grown up approach to politics.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited January 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She stands down, the Tories probably pick someone more Brexit, and they lose their remainer wing and hence their majority. For sure, it gets things moving, but not in a direction that is likely to resolve the Brexit dilemma any time soon.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Both those statements are a bit rich coming from someone who favours Brexit, the most pointless charade that has ever been inflicted on a gullible British public; a charade that is doing massive damage to our standing in the world and our economy; a charade that continues to be played out in spite of the last GE result that demonstrated the general populace had no real appetite for it, or else they would have given May a thumping majority.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    abject surrender of the national interest as normal
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    For some reason Eddie the Eagle comes to mind.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    Dave is against AV, that's for sure!

    For example: David Cameron's "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency would create a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    A few more unobjectionable MPs would surely be a good thing.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    We may agree on that, but perhaps for differing reasons. A50 was hastily invoked, mainly from pressure from the headbangers. Meaningful negotiations should have started in advance of that, though the problem was the lazy idiot who told us it was going to be easy; a fool with the initials DD.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
    We’re buggered either way but I’d go for the option that doesn’t bugger the country as well.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited January 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Not sure how you can discriminate the two. I hope she goes for her sake as much as anything. It can't be much fun. It's certainly painful to watch.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    How on earth does the opposition get 320-329 votes. Just taken the £6 @ 20 available.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    Which will be proven right after sustained no deal.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    abject surrender of the national interest as normal
    Your idea of the national interest is somewhat different from folk who actually understand business and economics
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    I think you might be completely missing the point there.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    There are times when even Dan Hodges is correct

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1085476685636603904
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    As I said on the last thread 498 mps voted for A50 and no deal and yet this morning Jon Trickett blamed the 29th March date entirely at TM door, not realising that he had voted for A50 and the consequences

    TM is receiving criticism this morning some of which is fair, but all 498 mps who voted against the deal last night, but voted for A50 should hang their heads in shame
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    You can live with no deal in the safety of Dubai, those of who will have to deal with it on a daily basis aren’t so keen.
    I’m getting seriously worried about Waitrose and M&S over here running out of food, the first thing to stop is going to be exports from the U.K. Where else is one supposed to find bacon over here?

    More seriously, unless MPs can very quickly agree on the way forward, the preparations for no deal need to be stepped up a gear or two.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
    We’re buggered either way but I’d go for the option that doesn’t bugger the country as well.
    Revoking would destroy the Tory Party and usher in a 20 year Corbynite government. That buggers the country.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
    We’re buggered either way but I’d go for the option that doesn’t bugger the country as well.
    Agreed - but I was considering incentives for the various courses of action.

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dura_Ace said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I wonder what the sliding doors moment would look like if Dave had won the referendum.

    Osbo would be PM and Cameron would be getting ready to take over as NATO SecGen.
    Cameron would be writing his memoirs. As things are, his anti-Midas touch meant everything turned out badly. What are his triumphs? Screwing Gordon Brown out of the IMF job? Wiping out his coalition partners? That is why he will be sending back the publisher's advance.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    Which will be proven right after sustained no deal.
    some will some wont, its the ramping of the worst of all world memes which actually undermine the arguments.

    Ken Clark in his usual affable way talking about a handful of key points and why we should worry about them would be more effective than the hysterical shroud waving Remain has adopted. The problem for the fearites is its all background noise and they have to take it up to aother level each time, Eventually it just looks nonsensical,
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    We may agree on that, but perhaps for differing reasons. A50 was hastily invoked, mainly from pressure from the headbangers. Meaningful negotiations should have started in advance of that, though the problem was the lazy idiot who told us it was going to be easy; a fool with the initials DD.
    It wasn't permissable to open negotiations prior to A50, but it would have been useful to have sorted our own position first.

    The problem is that even now the Cabinet is divided over objectives. That is no way to start a negotiation. We needed to negotiate internally, before going externally.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    Morning all. So here is my take in bullets:

    In order to leave the EU we must ratify the Withdrawal Treaty.

    The DUP will not support the Treaty.

    The DUP are the prop on which this government depends for its existence.

    Therefore this government cannot take us out of the EU.

    But we must leave the EU because of the 2016 referendum.

    Therefore a different government is required.

    Which with this parliament means either a GUC or a JC minority.

    But neither of the above is feasible given the political dynamics.

    Therefore a new parliament is required.

    Which can only come about via a GENERAL ELECTION.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    BannedInParis said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    Hence, the promise that they'll do no confidence after no confidence etc etc.

    This is not a grown up approach to politics.
    The other opposition parties are unlikely to support repetitive vonc
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.
    If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Both those statements are a bit rich coming from someone who favours Brexit, the most pointless charade that has ever been inflicted on a gullible British public; a charade that is doing massive damage to our standing in the world and our economy; a charade that continues to be played out in spite of the last GE result that demonstrated the general populace had no real appetite for it, or else they would have given May a thumping majority.
    Deal or no deal the country will be fine with Brexit.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    As I said on the last thread 498 mps voted for A50 and no deal and yet this morning Jon Trickett blamed the 29th March date entirely at TM door, not realising that he had voted for A50 and the consequences

    TM is receiving criticism this morning some of which is fair, but all 498 mps who voted against the deal last night, but voted for A50 should hang their heads in shame
    Apportioning blame is something that can wait until the end of March. There are more pressing concerns for now.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    eek said:

    There are times when even Dan Hodges is correct

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1085476685636603904

    There has to be a time when even the most deluded have to face up to reality. I'd like to hear apologies from those that said it was going to be easy and that the German carmakers would mean they needed us more than we needed them.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I'm not sure a referendum is a fly

    Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
    Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen

    Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.

    So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,954
    eek said:

    There are times when even Dan Hodges is correct

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1085476685636603904

    Aye.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1085450982165827584
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    You can live with no deal in the safety of Dubai, those of who will have to deal with it on a daily basis aren’t so keen.
    I’m getting seriously worried about Waitrose and M&S over here running out of food, the first thing to stop is going to be exports from the U.K. Where else is one supposed to find bacon over here?

    More seriously, unless MPs can very quickly agree on the way forward, the preparations for no deal need to be stepped up a gear or two.
    I thought you Leavers wanted immigrants to assimilate into the host country and not bring their own traditions with them?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So here is my take in bullets:

    In order to leave the EU we must ratify the Withdrawal Treaty.

    The DUP will not support the Treaty.

    The DUP are the prop on which this government depends for its existence.

    Therefore this government cannot take us out of the EU.

    But we must leave the EU because of the 2016 referendum.

    Therefore a different government is required.

    Which with this parliament means either a GUC or a JC minority.

    But neither of the above is feasible given the political dynamics.

    Therefore a new parliament is required.

    Which can only come about via a GENERAL ELECTION.

    Which might well solve nothing, and would burn up most of the remaining time.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Not sure how you can discriminate the two. I hope she goes for her sake as much as anything. It can't be much fun. It's certainly painful to watch.
    The pain is in watching 650 mps acting like children
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    eek said:

    There are times when even Dan Hodges is correct

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1085476685636603904

    There has to be a time when even the most deluded have to face up to reality. I'd like to hear apologies from those that said it was going to be easy and that the German carmakers would mean they needed us more than we needed them.
    They do but we still have piss weak Remainer May as our PM talking to our European neighbours. Put someone with a better handbag in charge and things would change.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    No Deal was one of the 'scare stories' put out by remain.
    It was flatly denied by leave as part of 'project fear' - and is now being celebrated by some of your camp as the only true Brexit.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
    We’re buggered either way but I’d go for the option that doesn’t bugger the country as well.
    Revoking would destroy the Tory Party and usher in a 20 year Corbynite government. That buggers the country.
    I do not see how a conservative government or especially TM would even consider it
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    I don't think they can directly. The executive (government) does the negotiation. The MPs agree or disagree with that negotiation.

    they don't have the power to do it themselves, only to direct the government indirectly and to agree/disagree/
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    We may agree on that, but perhaps for differing reasons. A50 was hastily invoked, mainly from pressure from the headbangers. Meaningful negotiations should have started in advance of that, though the problem was the lazy idiot who told us it was going to be easy; a fool with the initials DD.
    Jeremy Corbyn wanted it invoked immediately.....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    You mean, other than the obvious step they failed to take last night?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    MPs can vote for Mrs May's deal, the same one they rejected yesterday but with precisely three cosmetic tweaks to let them save face. Or they can lobby the Cabinet to force the PM out and revoke or extend Article 50.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Slackbladder said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    I don't think they can directly. The executive (government) does the negotiation. The MPs agree or disagree with that negotiation.

    they don't have the power to do it themselves, only to direct the government indirectly and to agree/disagree/
    They need to become the government.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Chatting last night, I was surprised at the sympathy for Mrs May, and not from the usual suspects. I think she's incompetent, but I also have some sympathy. Parliament is the surly teenager and she's the Mother.

    "You've been told to tidy your room. now do it."
    "Do I have to?"
    "Yes."
    "It's so unfair, I want to do something else."
    "You promised you'd do it."
    "Aw! It's too hard."
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Slackbladder said:

    I'm not sure a referendum is a fly

    Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
    Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen

    Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.

    So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?

    Revoke vs Not Revoke ?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    Nigelb said:

    Which might well solve nothing, and would burn up most of the remaining time.

    But the upsides are it could be done quickly and it COULD resolve the impasse, depending on the result.

    Can you think of any other realistic course of action that ticks those 2 boxes?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    Can't they change the exit date outwith primary legislation ?

    Heard that somewhere.
  • Options
    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    The EU probably have every right to be miffed today. The dire WA is pretty clearly what the Maybot wanted for her version of Brexit & the EU delivered their end.

    That nobody else in the UK wanted such a dreadful proposition for the future is neither here or there.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MarqueeMark said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    She has a degree of responsibility for falling into line with the headbangers. The main culprits, though, are those that told the public it was a desirable project and worse still that it was all going to be "easy". They need to be called to account, and not let anywhere near any real positions of power, ever . Sadly, while we have a neo-communist as LOTO that seems less likely.
    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.
    We may agree on that, but perhaps for differing reasons. A50 was hastily invoked, mainly from pressure from the headbangers. Meaningful negotiations should have started in advance of that, though the problem was the lazy idiot who told us it was going to be easy; a fool with the initials DD.
    Jeremy Corbyn wanted it invoked immediately.....
    Good luck with blaming Corbyn for Brexit and IDS for Iraq. Voters will blame the Conservative and Labour governments respectively.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Nigelb said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    No Deal was one of the 'scare stories' put out by remain.
    It was flatly denied by leave as part of 'project fear' - and is now being celebrated by some of your camp as the only true Brexit.
    Given I am and have been in the soft Brexit camp who can you say is celebrating ?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    I don't think they can directly. The executive (government) does the negotiation. The MPs agree or disagree with that negotiation.

    they don't have the power to do it themselves, only to direct the government indirectly and to agree/disagree/
    They need to become the government.
    In extremis, that could happen very quickly. But it requires someone to burn the bridge between the Tory remainers and their colleagues, first.

    Or, just maybe, the threat that they would do it could be enough to get the government to bring forward the necessary proposal. I am sure it already exists.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Nigelb said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I'm not sure a referendum is a fly

    Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
    Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen

    Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.

    So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?

    Revoke vs Not Revoke ?
    Thats no deal vs remain in all but the same words.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    He wants an election more though.
    I think he wants No Deal then an election.

    The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
    And what happens to them in the event of revoke ?

    At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
    We’re buggered either way but I’d go for the option that doesn’t bugger the country as well.
    Revoking would destroy the Tory Party and usher in a 20 year Corbynite government. That buggers the country.
    I do not see how a conservative government or especially TM would even consider it
    The government cannot just revoke or extend but they probably can do so provided it is accompanied by a Royal Commission or some such to plot a path to a successful Brexit, to be stuffed with headbangers like Farage and JRM.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    You can live with no deal in the safety of Dubai, those of who will have to deal with it on a daily basis aren’t so keen.
    I’m getting seriously worried about Waitrose and M&S over here running out of food, the first thing to stop is going to be exports from the U.K. Where else is one supposed to find bacon over here?

    More seriously, unless MPs can very quickly agree on the way forward, the preparations for no deal need to be stepped up a gear or two.
    I thought you Leavers wanted immigrants to assimilate into the host country and not bring their own traditions with them?
    That’s a very irregular verb. ;)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    So half the Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP seem to want no-deal. Let’s get on with it!
    You can live with no deal in the safety of Dubai, those of who will have to deal with it on a daily basis aren’t so keen.
    I’m getting seriously worried about Waitrose and M&S over here running out of food, the first thing to stop is going to be exports from the U.K. Where else is one supposed to find bacon over here?

    More seriously, unless MPs can very quickly agree on the way forward, the preparations for no deal need to be stepped up a gear or two.
    I thought you Leavers wanted immigrants to assimilate into the host country and not bring their own traditions with them?
    lol
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Yorkcity said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.
    If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.

    As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business review at 5.00am and then 5 live and this mornings phone ins and texts were surprisingly supportive of TM and the deal. Of course that was not everyone but it was more than expected and the theme was just get on and do it

    That theme has continued on the broadcast media including Sky poll saying 53% do not want TM to be vonc. My opinion is that politicians are out of step with the public and even more from business. The business review was from Belfast and Irish business is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUP
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    Can't they change the exit date outwith primary legislation ?

    Heard that somewhere.
    But that's us, we're still out the club on 29 March.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited January 2019
    I'm just been accused of being an 'extreme centrist' on twitter.... brilliant.

    but i think it might be a parody account...so difficult to tell these days ;)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Slackbladder said:

    Nigelb said:

    Slackbladder said:

    I'm not sure a referendum is a fly

    Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
    Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen

    Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.

    So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?

    Revoke vs Not Revoke ?
    Thats no deal vs remain in all but the same words.
    That is perhaps true - but it is expressed in clearcut terms which could be put in a referendum, which 'no deal' couldn't.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.
    If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.

    As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business review at 5.00am and then 5 live and this mornings phone ins and texts were surprisingly supportive of TM and the deal. Of course that was not everyone but it was more than expected and the theme was just get on and do it

    That theme has continued on the broadcast media including Sky poll saying 53% do not want TM to be vonc. My opinion is that politicians are out of step with the public and even more from business. The business review was from Belfast and Irish business is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUP
    G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Long piece from Charles Grant on the Brexit process. Does not stir one's patriotic loins. The sheer amateurishness, incompetence and above all IGNORANCE within the British government defies belief.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/01/search-lost-brexit-how-uk-repeatedly-weakened-its-own-negotiating-position

    'National officials, including in Germany, liked to report that business lobbies were pressing them to be tough on the integrity of the single market. “We have been urged not to let the British pick holes in the single market, lest that precedent lead to the whole thing unravelling,” said a Berlin official. “Business leaders tell us that the strength and integrity of the single market is much more important than the loss of a bit of trade with the UK.” '

    'Brexiteer ministers assured the British people that the EU would not do anything that could endanger its trade surplus in manufactured goods with the UK. They were wrong.'
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.
    If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.

    As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business review at 5.00am and then 5 live and this mornings phone ins and texts were surprisingly supportive of TM and the deal. Of course that was not everyone but it was more than expected and the theme was just get on and do it

    That theme has continued on the broadcast media including Sky poll saying 53% do not want TM to be vonc. My opinion is that politicians are out of step with the public and even more from business. The business review was from Belfast and Irish business is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUP
    the business lobby like the public is now at the point where they just want the thing put to bed.

    MPs are more than a little self indulgent atm
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    The EU are acting exactly as I anticipated. They are looking after number one. They'd prefer we stayed in and to that accord, they are happy to prevaricate and not set any deadlines. Eventually, we may well come round to their point of view and stay in. An extension? If you must and only for a good (for them) reason. Another referendum, as is their wont.

    If we insist on leaving (and they're aware Parliament is for Remain), they must ensure we're not seen to benefit.

    Project Fear can be left to British Remainers. On March 29th, British seabirds will plummet from the skies etc.

  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BannedInParis said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Corbyn wants No Deal lest we forget.

    That will influence his strategy and tactics.

    Hence, the promise that they'll do no confidence after no confidence etc etc.

    This is not a grown up approach to politics.
    The other opposition parties are unlikely to support repetitive vonc
    Well, yes, and the public as well.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,335
    Alanbrooke said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Am told the People’s Vote (sic) lot are putting together a compilation of all the times the Leave campaigners said No Deal was Project Fear.

    Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.

    could they also do one of all the scare stories put out by remain, could be a Netflix mini series.
    No Deal was one of the 'scare stories' put out by remain.
    It was flatly denied by leave as part of 'project fear' - and is now being celebrated by some of your camp as the only true Brexit.
    Given I am and have been in the soft Brexit camp who can you say is celebrating ?
    Read the previous thread for examples. By 'your camp', I meant the Brexit camp - but perhaps directed it too personally.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Jonathan said:

    Not sure how you can discriminate the two. I hope she goes for her sake as much as anything. It can't be much fun. It's certainly painful to watch.

    I agree with Big_G, there has been quite consistent support for the PM and her deal on vox pops I have heard*. Not great enthusiasm, but support in a "it's the best we are likely to get" sort of way. The public seems much more realistic and less polarized than our politicians.

    * And I have heard enough to last a lifetime.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Sean_F said:

    The main culprits are those who voted to trigger A50, and then voted No last night. Never vote for something if you cannot abide it.

    On that basis we should never have had a referendum, as Parliament has been and remains firmly in the Remain camp.
This discussion has been closed.