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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Anorak, assuming she survives tonight's vote, May has a few days to return to the House with a Plan B.

    Mr. grss, that's true, and worth adding that running down the clock was entirely unnecessary on May's part.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

    The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

    The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

    David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.

    Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.

    Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?

    Ireland is now planning for a hard border
    It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK

    They are completely broken on a no deal outcome

    Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.

    from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planning

    I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have by anti US stance.

    And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?

    Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
    * Financial and business comfort zone.

    I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,

    Watch the House. Always follow the money.

    only time will tell

    however since your on

    In the last 3 months as some light relief from Brexit Ive done articles on Germany France and Italy. Spain is next on the list any chnce you could give us your views on whats happening ? There have been lots of changes with Rajoy gone and some scary people now in government in Andalucia. Fancy doing an article or at least in putting ?


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Anorak, assuming she survives tonight's vote, May has a few days to return to the House with a Plan B.

    Mr. grss, that's true, and worth adding that running down the clock was entirely unnecessary on May's part.

    From her point of view, the deal got the party VoNC out of the way early though.

    There would be a damn sight more than 48 letters in Sir Graham’s postbag this morning if that hadn’t happened back in December.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951

    It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

    The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

    The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

    David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

    Direct from a thought bubble in a shepherd's hut, somewhere in Oxfordshire.....
  • Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.

    Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.

    Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?

    Ireland is now planning for a hard border
    It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK

    They are completely broken on a no deal outcome

    Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.

    from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planning

    I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have by anti US stance.

    And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?

    Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
    * Financial and business comfort zone.

    I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,

    Watch the House. Always follow the money.

    only time will tell

    however since your on

    In the last 3 months as some light relief from Brexit Ive done articles on Germany France and Italy. Spain is next on the list any chnce you could give us your views on whats happening ? There have been lots of changes with Rajoy gone and some scary people now in government in Andalucia. Fancy doing an article or at least in putting ?

    Yep - that sounds very good. I do have some views!! What would you need from me.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    Lucy Powell, perhaps Stephen Kinnock to explore the EFTA type options ?
  • Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    eek said:
    The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.

    Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.

    Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?

    Ireland is now planning for a hard border
    It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK

    They are completely broken on a no deal outcome

    Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.

    from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planning

    I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have by anti US stance.

    And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?

    Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
    * Financial and business comfort zone.

    I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,

    Watch the House. Always follow the money.

    only time will tell

    however since your on

    In the last 3 months as some light relief from Brexit Ive done articles on Germany France and Italy. Spain is next on the list any chnce you could give us your views on whats happening ? There have been lots of changes with Rajoy gone and some scary people now in government in Andalucia. Fancy doing an article or at least in putting ?

    Yep - that sounds very good. I do have some views!! What would you need from me.

    Ill PM you and sort something out, thanks.
  • Sandpit said:

    Mr. Anorak, assuming she survives tonight's vote, May has a few days to return to the House with a Plan B.

    Mr. grss, that's true, and worth adding that running down the clock was entirely unnecessary on May's part.

    From her point of view, the deal got the party VoNC out of the way early though.

    There would be a damn sight more than 48 letters in Sir Graham’s postbag this morning if that hadn’t happened back in December.
    I did say the ERG were not thinking when they served the letters.

    But thinking is not in the ERG's dna
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited January 2019
    eek said:
    Why does Dunt always seem to turn to unnecessary language

    Would he repeat his words on the broadcast media, which he appears on so much
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049

    It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

    The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

    The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

    David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

    The better counterfactual:

    PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

    No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
    I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    MD - here's a nice quote about Davis.

    'trading on WTO terms would not be so bad since that was how the UK traded with the US, ignoring the fact that UK-US trade is facilitated by dozens of US-EU agreements covering areas such as data, aviation, financial services and pharmaceuticals. And then David Davis said that it would not matter if the UK left without a deal, since it could use the transitional period to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU – apparently unaware that, without a deal, there is no transition.'

    I think we can agree that David Davis is simply stupid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Borough, how does that actually resolve anything?

    Say the deal is defeated. We have an election. But if the ensuing Parliament doesn't back a deal, we either leave without one or revoke Article 50. The options are identical.
  • Foxy said:

    It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

    The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

    The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

    David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

    The better counterfactual:

    PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

    No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.
    We can all write history as we would like it to be
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
    The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:
    The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !
    Which of course is part of their job description, if not the job description in its entirety.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    I did not realise, but May's 2017 manifesto, included getting rid of FTPA.

    Do it May.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    Even if May had the option to make it a confidence vote, would she actually do that?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited January 2019

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
    I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.
    Just announced she will talk to all senior politicians and spoke to Nicola Sturgeon last night
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    Why is the leaving on 29/3 continuing to drift out? now on 6.2, yet surely the default No Deal Brexit on that day is increasingly likely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Pulpstar said:

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
    The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.
    So the DUP will bring on a GE.

    If they want to risk a united Ireland, then so be it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

    The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

    The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

    David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

    The better counterfactual:

    PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

    No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.
    WHAT DO YOU MEAN ANTI-SEMITISM?

    Tory boy.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    eek said:
    I have some sympathy with this decision. Corbyn has been mired in antisemitism issues, supporting terrorists, etc. I think the last thing that May should be doing is bringing him into the heart of the negotiations.
    I would prefer her to be more explicit about only dealing with people on the Labour side that are not tainted by the above, but it is her choice.

    Just imagine the fury on the left if May had to bring Farage in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    Why is the leaving on 29/3 continuing to drift out? now on 6.2, yet surely the default No Deal Brexit on that day is increasingly likely?

    The thinking is that May will extend A50 and pivot to a more constrained, customs union-y Brexit, bringing Lab on board, softening Brexit. Hence sterling strength also.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Mr. Borough, how does that actually resolve anything?

    Say the deal is defeated. We have an election. But if the ensuing Parliament doesn't back a deal, we either leave without one or revoke Article 50. The options are identical.

    It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

    No one has any real idea what the result will be.

    And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

    Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
    I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.
    Is it possible that Corbyn just point blank refuses to talk to her, on anything?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    Several of us have been saying that on here for months. The FTPA is what’s driving Grieve’s behaviour; without the ability to utterly oppose the government but not cross the floor, he and Bercow can wreak their havoc on the Brexit process.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Foxy said:

    PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

    No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.

    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1085495455415451648
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
    The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.
    I hadn't realised that abolishing the FTPA was a May manifesto pledge!

    That is very interesting indeed.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Starmer looked very unhappy last night - more unhappy than usual. He was almost grimacing during Corbyn's speech.

    I hope he resigns from the Shadow Cabinet with like minded colleagues and forms a group of Labour MPs, analogous to ERG, who decide on their own Brexit policies and vote as a block. It would include Umunna, Kendall etc. It could number over half of Labour MPs and would negotiate with Mrs May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    If May's deal was a confidence vote, and DUP are against. Surely a few brave Labour MPs will do what is right for their country to avoid No Deal.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I did not realise, but May's 2017 manifesto, included getting rid of FTPA.

    Do it May.


    Could Labour table it, then force May to whip against her own manifesto? I suppose she wouldn't care and would whip against anyway?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    Relatedly:
    https://twitter.com/mynameiscal/status/1084803381879885824
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    I don’t like Corbyn one bit but May’s refusal to talk to the Opposition Leader is typical of her stupidity. That sort of tin ear and refusal to engage is what has landed her in this mess.

    I really think she needs to go and someone - Hammond / Gove / Rudd - take over, someone who is not bound by (or finds it easier to wriggle out of) May’s refusal to consider any options other than her own. Flexibility is what is needed now if we are to get out of this shambles.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Foxy said:

    Why is the leaving on 29/3 continuing to drift out? now on 6.2, yet surely the default No Deal Brexit on that day is increasingly likely?

    Assumption that EU will extend to protect Ireland.

    Not to protect the UK, obviously. Why the hell would they do that?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Endillion said:

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
    I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.
    Is it possible that Corbyn just point blank refuses to talk to her, on anything?
    You could be right. But it doesn't look as though she's in any mood to put out even a tiny olive twig!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t like Corbyn one bit but May’s refusal to talk to the Opposition Leader is typical of her stupidity. That sort of tin ear and refusal to engage is what has landed her in this mess.

    I really think she needs to go and someone - Hammond / Gove / Rudd - take over, someone who is not bound by (or finds it easier to wriggle out of) May’s refusal to consider any options other than her own. Flexibility is what is needed now if we are to get out of this shambles.

    Hear hear. I think Corbyn also has a tin ear and someone - Starmer/Thornberry - needs to take over the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the Labour Party.
  • Barnesian said:

    Starmer looked very unhappy last night - more unhappy than usual. He was almost grimacing during Corbyn's speech.

    I hope he resigns from the Shadow Cabinet with like minded colleagues and forms a group of Labour MPs, analogous to ERG, who decide on their own Brexit policies and vote as a block. It would include Umunna, Kendall etc. It could number over half of Labour MPs and would negotiate with Mrs May.

    Corbyn's speech at the dispatch box was desperately poor and with the announcement of 75 labour mps for a referendum it is becoming a very dangerous moment for Corbyn himself
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:
    The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !
    Which of course is part of their job description, if not the job description in its entirety.
    Nah on the big matters of war and peace (And this is up there) the Gov't is often supported. I think if Jezza had come back with a deal, the Tories may well have engineered abstentions.
    Of course the Tory backbenchers have given Jezza every excuse he needs.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Endillion said:

    Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

    Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

    I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee
    I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.
    Is it possible that Corbyn just point blank refuses to talk to her, on anything?
    If he refuses, fine. But she ought to try. The government is in a hole. It cannot afford to be high and mighty and arrogant. That is why last night it suffered the worst defeat ever. That’s May’s legacy; that’s her 3 lines in the history books . Now she needs to get out of the way if she cannot show any flexibility.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    Anorak said:

    Foxy said:

    Why is the leaving on 29/3 continuing to drift out? now on 6.2, yet surely the default No Deal Brexit on that day is increasingly likely?

    Assumption that EU will extend to protect Ireland.

    Not to protect the UK, obviously. Why the hell would they do that?
    I cannot see it myself. I have lumped on Leave on schedule.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    Yes, this government in this parliament cannot deliver a negotiated Brexit because of the reliance on the DUP.

    The situation is crying out for a general election.

    As the person calling for one, Jeremy Corbyn, far from being an impediment to progress, is proposing the best realistic alternative to pressing on with Mrs May.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    kinabalu said:

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    Yes, this government in this parliament cannot deliver a negotiated Brexit because of the reliance on the DUP.

    The situation is crying out for a general election.

    As the person calling for one, Jeremy Corbyn, far from being an impediment to progress, is proposing the best realistic alternative to pressing on with Mrs May.
    by the time we have a GE we'll have left
  • kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    I think this is spot on. I have no idea where things will go from here bit it would delight me if both those sets of zealots outside Parliament could somehow lose. The Deal was far from perfect and I think it was poorly negotiated but as far as the fundamentals go - we leave but maintain ties with the EU - it is basically the template for every single possible deal that could realistically be negotiated. It is a great shame it wasn't given more respect by both sides.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951

    kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    I think this is spot on. I have no idea where things will go from here bit it would delight me if both those sets of zealots outside Parliament could somehow lose. The Deal was far from perfect and I think it was poorly negotiated but as far as the fundamentals go - we leave but maintain ties with the EU - it is basically the template for every single possible deal that could realistically be negotiated. It is a great shame it wasn't given more respect by both sides.
    That was why, hideously bad as the deal was, I would have voted for it if an MP.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So here is my take in bullets:

    In order to leave the EU we must ratify the Withdrawal Treaty.

    The DUP will not support the Treaty.

    The DUP are the prop on which this government depends for its existence.

    Therefore this government cannot take us out of the EU.

    But we must leave the EU because of the 2016 referendum.

    Therefore a different government is required.

    Which with this parliament means either a GUC or a JC minority.

    But neither of the above is feasible given the political dynamics.

    Therefore a new parliament is required.

    Which can only come about via a GENERAL ELECTION.

    ... which the Conservative Party will not call, as it would involve May leading another campaign and one in which the splits in the Party and between the Party leadership and activists would be catastrophic. And which no Party can call without the Conservatives' acquiescence.

    Therefore... what?

    The answer is that to leave the EU, a ratified Withdrawal Treaty is not needed. Just extremely useful in avoiding disruption, turmoil and unpleasantness.

    Given that the Withdrawal Treaty will not be ratified, no GUC is feasible, a JC minority is not feasible, a New Election is not feasible, either an alternative Withdrawal Agreement will be agreed (highly unlikely; red lines would have to be erased), or we have a disorderly Brexit (more likely) or we do not leave the EU despite the 2016 referendum (less likely).
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    Well, after you fleeced them yesterday...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    These aren't sceptics, these are ultras, extreme, Brexiteers who still fantasise about chlorinated unicorn farming.

    Sod them. Do what's right for the situation.

    If the public really, really want to be free to do FTA with the US then they can elect a Tory government led by Boris or Raab in a few years time.

    Meanwhile, can we have a deal that keeps food on the bloody shelves.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Intriguing to watch the so-called moderate Leavers have the dawning realisation, three years too late, that they have thrown in their lot with extremists. Having pandered to them all that time, they now are starting to understand that they are implacable. They were warned.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Meeks, the price you pay for winning in the past?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    LOL. What price and value did you screw them for yesterday?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    Are you selling MPs on the VONC ?

    Can't see much potential upside there tbh.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited January 2019
    What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    The result of the confidence vote would be 310 to 325 if all Tories, all DUP MPs and Lady Sylvia Hermon vote against and everyone else votes in favour. There would need to be 8 Tories voting in favour for it to pass, or 16 abstaining.
  • I think it's the only way that does not involve going back to the country. Make the political declaration more Labour-friendly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951

    Pulpstar said:

    outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

    Get rid of the FTPA now.

    Make the Deal a confidence vote.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

    The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
    The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.
    So the DUP will bring on a GE.

    If they want to risk a united Ireland, then so be it.
    In any election, they also most likely lose that sweet spot that has given them their position of power. Can't see the maths working out for them again like this.

    They might abstain if it were a VONC on May's Deal. That would be exciting!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:
    The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !
    Which of course is part of their job description, if not the job description in its entirety.
    Nah on the big matters of war and peace (And this is up there) the Gov't is often supported. I think if Jezza had come back with a deal, the Tories may well have engineered abstentions.
    Of course the Tory backbenchers have given Jezza every excuse he needs.
    Nah yourself. According to Labour everything would be fine if it had been left to them and still could be fine if they are in power. Think about a Jeremy Corbyn government and a commitment to nationalise all shops which he says will transform society and ensure justice and equality for all. Surely a matter of the national interest for the Conservatives to vote in support of such a policy, right?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Head of German Economic Institute opines

    - for Germany Brexit costs are overstated
    - US trade confluict and Italy are the main risks to German Economy
    - rise in oil price would have bigger effect on german economy than Brexit
    - wants UK to stay in but doesnt think there should be renegotiation
    - UK and Ireland main countries impacted by Brexit but its transitional


    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187155220/Brexit-Kosten-eines-ungeordneten-Brexit-werden-ueberschaetzt.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    I think this is spot on. I have no idea where things will go from here bit it would delight me if both those sets of zealots outside Parliament could somehow lose. The Deal was far from perfect and I think it was poorly negotiated but as far as the fundamentals go - we leave but maintain ties with the EU - it is basically the template for every single possible deal that could realistically be negotiated. It is a great shame it wasn't given more respect by both sides.
    :+1:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.

    Note: Not a convincing enough source to put money on!!!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    LOL. What price and value did you screw them for yesterday?
    Not that much really, I took under £150 off them yesterday, being allowed a maximum £3.75 an MP on two occasions.

    I do have a good track record with them, I admit, but presumably they have plenty of people on the other side of the spreads if they set them where they set them. Yesterday there was obviously plenty of upward pressure on the price, which rose as high as 223-231 at one point (and an eight point spread was pretty cheeky - it's only three points today). I'm not taking advantage of them but of their other customers. They should be prepared to take the rough with the smooth.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.

    Note: Not a convincing enough source to put money on!!!!
    Then the numbers are I think Yes 311, No 313 (Government)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    Are you selling MPs on the VONC ?

    Can't see much potential upside there tbh.
    311 is the practical maximum if the DUP and the Conservatives do as expected (and I strongly expect them to do so). If the outcome is clear, there might be some waifs and strays who don't vote and the independents might abstain, or even vote in favour of the Conservatives. For example, it's not as though either Frank Field or John Woodcock has much love for Jeremy Corbyn, and neither is looking to return to the Labour party.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited January 2019
    eek said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.

    Note: Not a convincing enough source to put money on!!!!
    Then the numbers are I think Yes 311, No 313 (Government)
    Eeek. That's the point when Jerry and his mates sidle out from the shadows.

    [Edit. The "eeek" was not a reference to you!!]
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,544
    kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    Agreed.

    I heard somewhere that Mogg had a champagne celebration. Is that true ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Anorak said:

    eek said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.

    Note: Not a convincing enough source to put money on!!!!
    Then the numbers are I think Yes 311, No 313 (Government)
    Eeek. That's the point when Jerry and his mates sidle out from the shadows.

    [Edit. The "eeek" was not a reference to you!!]
    Squeaky Bum time...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836

    It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

    No one has any real idea what the result will be.

    And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

    Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.

    Yep. There is a clear and obvious case for a general election.

    Labour's Brexit position is not a mystery to me, btw, it is crystal clear. It's Norway Plus. It's the Cons who have the problem with their Brexit position. As we saw yesterday.

    And that, unfortunately, means a pre-Brexit GE will probably not happen. If they can't agree a Brexit position they can't fight it. And if they can't fight it they won't vote for it.

    Bringing us back, as you say, to the de-merits of the FTPA.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I think it's the only way that does not involve going back to the country. Make the political declaration more Labour-friendly.
    I think this would work as a way to embarrass Labour, but not as a way to win the vote. I don't think enough of Labour would vote for the deal, even with a customs union, to save her.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Oooh. Corbyn piling on CU pressure, quite effectively.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Sandpit said:

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    LOL. What price and value did you screw them for yesterday?
    Not that much really, I took under £150 off them yesterday, being allowed a maximum £3.75 an MP on two occasions.

    I do have a good track record with them, I admit, but presumably they have plenty of people on the other side of the spreads if they set them where they set them. Yesterday there was obviously plenty of upward pressure on the price, which rose as high as 223-231 at one point (and an eight point spread was pretty cheeky - it's only three points today). I'm not taking advantage of them but of their other customers. They should be prepared to take the rough with the smooth.
    Yeah, I thought they always made money on spread betting, no matter what the outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    nope.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

    We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

    Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.
    The mess has many authors.

    I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
    The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.

    The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
    From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong support
    Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.
    The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportive
    Which helps us get out of this mess not a not.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    Oooh. Corbyn piling on CU pressure, quite effectively.

    Aaaand he's back to the comfort blanket.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951
    May and Corbyn both in General Election stats mode....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    kinabalu said:

    It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

    No one has any real idea what the result will be.

    And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

    Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.

    Yep. There is a clear and obvious case for a general election.

    Labour's Brexit position is not a mystery to me, btw, it is crystal clear. It's Norway Plus. It's the Cons who have the problem with their Brexit position. As we saw yesterday.

    And that, unfortunately, means a pre-Brexit GE will probably not happen. If they can't agree a Brexit position they can't fight it. And if they can't fight it they won't vote for it.

    Bringing us back, as you say, to the de-merits of the FTPA.
    And the FTPA is, of course, another legacy of the political genius who got us into this mess, D Cameron Esq.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835

    Pulpstar said:

    Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

    Are you selling MPs on the VONC ?

    Can't see much potential upside there tbh.
    311 is the practical maximum if the DUP and the Conservatives do as expected (and I strongly expect them to do so). If the outcome is clear, there might be some waifs and strays who don't vote and the independents might abstain, or even vote in favour of the Conservatives. For example, it's not as though either Frank Field or John Woodcock has much love for Jeremy Corbyn, and neither is looking to return to the Labour party.
    I've laid 320-329 £6 @ 20.0 - small money but very safe !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951
    It's the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT that was massively voted down last night.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Mark,

    "Oh, I think given they are a significant minority in the House, there has been plenty of sound and fury from the women in there too."

    A good point. Ms Soubry is a caterwaul on her own.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    edited January 2019
    Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?

    Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...

    2 tellers each side that don't count also ?

    650 - Bercow = 649
    649 - Sinn Fein = 642
    642 - 4 tellers = 638 max ?

    But I note the 2017 vote was 323 to 309 = 632..
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    If Corbyn's not careful he's going to get his CU, which he's defined as the solution to the problem (and by implication the solution to gaining Labour support) and become an irrelevance again.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    I think it's the only way that does not involve going back to the country. Make the political declaration more Labour-friendly.
    I think this would work as a way to embarrass Labour, but not as a way to win the vote. I don't think enough of Labour would vote for the deal, even with a customs union, to save her.
    No. If May decides to go for a Brexit that's she can get through with Labour support ( which I don't think she will, but let's suppose) she wlll lose a lot of Tory MPs and so she will need to gain the support of the vast majority on the Labour side to get a deal through. So she will need to appeal not only to the Norway supporters but also those who are currently pressing for a second referendum. The absolute minimum she would need to offer would be permanent membership of SM and CU, and even then there would be enormous pressure to put the whole thing to a referendum. This would be anathema to most Tories and it doesn't seem to me to be a credible option.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?

    Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...

    2 tellers each side that don't also ?

    The Deputy Speakers don’t vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,544

    kinabalu said:

    One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

    There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

    Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

    I think this is spot on. I have no idea where things will go from here bit it would delight me if both those sets of zealots outside Parliament could somehow lose. The Deal was far from perfect and I think it was poorly negotiated but as far as the fundamentals go - we leave but maintain ties with the EU - it is basically the template for every single possible deal that could realistically be negotiated. It is a great shame it wasn't given more respect by both sides.
    The reasonable leavers and remainers I think recognised this all along - and it is a great shame that Labour adopted much of the ERG rhetoric on May’s deal.
    In the unlikely event of a second referendum, I would still vote in favour of it before I voted to revoke article 50. But would happily vote to revoke rather than no deal.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

    Can't they change the exit date outwith primary legislation ?

    Heard that somewhere.
    There was a suggestion they could amend the U.K. legislation but not sure how they require the government to revoke Article 50 without further “innovation” by Speaker Bercow
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Why doesn't Kuenssberg find out if that is indeed the case by talking to people close to the PM rather than just parroting the on-the-record line of someone on the telly? She really is a very, very poor journalist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    Pulpstar said:

    Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?

    Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...

    2 tellers each side that don't count also ?

    650 - Bercow = 649
    649 - Sinn Fein = 642
    642 - 4 tellers = 638 max ?

    But I note the 2017 vote was 323 to 309 = 632..

    The Deputy Speakers don’t vote.

    Thanks,

    650 - (Bercow+ 3 Deputies) = 646
    646 - Sinn Fein = 639
    639 - 4 tellers = 635 max ?
This discussion has been closed.