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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2019
    CD13 said:

    Mr G,

    Perhaps you're right. Let's kill them with kindness, or just sack them.

    Thats better
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    I think so.

    The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.
  • Port of Dover release a statement with two ferry companies saying they are prepared for a no deal Brexit

    How long before ERG jump on that

    What on the ferry? I do hope so. Provided the peskie froggies let them in, let's make sure they can't come back.
  • TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AnneJGP said:


    Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I think such a process is usually referred to as a "Peoples' Revoultion" or "Popular Uprising". Some European countries used it back in the 80s.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Soubry will.
    Heidi Allen will be, and I would assume Grieve also
    None of the Tories will break ranks.

    At the moment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    AnneJGP said:

    It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

    Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

    control alt delete - I do it every morning and it always works. Yesterday's gone.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    One can't help but note the benign chugging along of the economy nicely with the government distracted by other events...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Rook, Deal/Remain would be a win for Remain. I'd be looking at odds on a 10 point margin.
  • FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
    The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!
  • FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
    The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!
    Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexit
  • Mr. Rook, Deal/Remain would be a win for Remain. I'd be looking at odds on a 10 point margin.

    Seeing as those are the only two serious options, let's call the whole thing off.
  • The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    I think so.

    The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.
    Why would you want to defect to a party that considers your mere existence and your values to be the personification of pure evil (Richard Burgon edition).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    I think so.

    The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.
    Why would you want to defect to a party that considers your mere existence and your values to be the personification of pure evil (Richard Burgon edition).
    Why did your mind immediately spring to Labour ?!
  • FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
    The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!
    Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexit
    Not by any clear majority though. The fun thing is this. The electorate had a referendum. A small majority voted on one of the simplistic binary choices. Some months later, the electorate had a GE and failed to endorse the one party that most advocated that choice.Therefore the will-o-the-people is about as clear as a 1950s smog that occupies the average Brexiteers nostalgia.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
  • Pulpstar said:

    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    I think so.

    The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.
    Why would you want to defect to a party that considers your mere existence and your values to be the personification of pure evil (Richard Burgon edition).
    Why did your mind immediately spring to Labour ?!
    I thought that as well. Lib Dems much more likely
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
    It depends on how much people focus on whether the deal is any good or on re-running Leave/Remain as a point of principle. People voted the way they did, I believe, mostly for the following reasons:

    1. They think membership of the EU is a good thing for the UK
    2. They want to be masters of their own ship
    3. They don't like the EU very much and want it to go away.
    4. They want to reduce immigration.

    The Deal is more or less negative for the first three categories and is vague on the fourth.
  • Pulpstar said:

    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    I think so.

    The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.
    Why would you want to defect to a party that considers your mere existence and your values to be the personification of pure evil (Richard Burgon edition).
    Why did your mind immediately spring to Labour ?!
    David Mundell and Roaster Ross to defect to the SNP?
  • Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Is it possible to apply an amendment to a VONC?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Not much of an offer - assumes Corbyn wants to win the VONC...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..
  • I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

    Has he said/done something?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

    Has he said/done something?
    He’s not supporting the vote of no confidence:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1085583338776211457?s=21
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?


    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
    Dont fall for it, he lives in a 2nd floor flat, he doesn't have a loft.
  • I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

    Has he said/done something?
    He’s not supporting the vote of no confidence:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1085583338776211457?s=21
    Ta.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

    The 2017 QS?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    I don't know if it is clever but it is certain ly a decisive move.

    Something we have been lacking from both main parties.
  • TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Not much of an offer - assumes Corbyn wants to win the VONC...

    That would mean he would have to do a meaningful job for the first time in his life. The only lazier person in parliament than "2Es" is David Davis
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

    The 2017 QS?
    Yes. Gregory Campbell had a prior engagement but he is why it wasn't 324... not the 309-310 switch.
  • FF43 said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.
    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
    The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!
    Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexit
    Not by any clear majority though. The fun thing is this. The electorate had a referendum. A small majority voted on one of the simplistic binary choices. Some months later, the electorate had a GE and failed to endorse the one party that most advocated that choice.Therefore the will-o-the-people is about as clear as a 1950s smog that occupies the average Brexiteers nostalgia.
    On that we can agree

  • Good to know that the great issues of our time are being tackled.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Woodcock almost certainly takes us to 309 I think ?
  • Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Why - if they refuse because he doesn't support their wishes
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    TGOHF said:

    One can't help but note the benign chugging along of the economy nicely with the government distracted by other events...

    Its as if there might be something in all that "if the government aint doing something, it aint buggering something up".
  • He has articulated what a majority of Labour MPs know to be fact
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

    I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

    Frank Field?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

    Does this help:
    https://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2017-06-29&number=4&display=allpossible&sort=name

    At least 3 nonvoters on the Lab side
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    I am not sure they do. They could go for a "plague on both your houses" abstention, unless Labour signed up to a referendum etc. It would make Labour MPs very uncomfortable I suspect.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.

    I keep reading this argument and yet when the parliamentary process is explored it becomes clear that only one outcome is possible without an external input that relies on enabling by the executive.
  • The Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who delayed her caesarean section so that she could vote in last night’s division, and who had to be taken through the lobby in a wheelchair, will be “nodded through” tonight.

    Dunno why she couldn't have chosen that method yesterday, sheer grandstanding I guess.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.
  • The Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who delayed her caesarean section so that she could vote in last night’s division, and who had to be taken through the lobby in a wheelchair, will be “nodded through” tonight.

    Dunno why she couldn't have chosen that method yesterday, sheer grandstanding I guess.

    I know that.
    You know that.
    The only person who didn't seem to know that was Jez.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

    Does this help:
    https://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2017-06-29&number=4&display=allpossible&sort=name

    At least 3 nonvoters on the Lab side
    George Howarth is our mystery man..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Why - if they refuse because he doesn't support their wishes
    Their supporters would expect them to support a VONC.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.
  • Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit
  • Endillion said:

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.
    What planet did you come in from? Planet Momentum or Planet Putin?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    One can't help but note the benign chugging along of the economy nicely with the government distracted by other events...

    Its as if there might be something in all that "if the government aint doing something, it aint buggering something up".
    Yes, one of the very few good things about Brexit is that it stops the government faffing around with various pieces of legislation, thus causing needless admin for businesses for zero benefit.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Why? They should not attend the debate and should abstain on the grounds that Corbyn is playing games and wasting precious parliamentary time.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
  • I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

    Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Why? They should not attend the debate and should abstain on the grounds that Corbyn is playing games and wasting precious parliamentary time.
    Rebecca Long Odds Bailey (h/t Pulpstar) was on the telly only the other day saying she wouldn't favour voncs when the Opposition stood precious little chance of winning them.

    Hence the question why we have wasted yet another day with this evening's meaningless charade.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited January 2019

    I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.

    I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.

    Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.

    No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.

    I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sean_F said:

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

    Spot on.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Endillion said:

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.
    What planet did you come in from? Planet Momentum or Planet Putin?
    It's a hypothetical repeated VoNC in which the other opposition parties can choose not to support Labour so as to try and force a second referendum. Not a likely scenario for this evening.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

    Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

    The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

    a) Remain

    b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.



  • Sean_F said:

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

    Indeed. The EU was a very effective check against the excesses of a Corbyn Mcdonnell -type government. As well as making such a government more likely, Brexiteers have given a Corbyn government the green light to fuck up the economy even further
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2019
    grr old news
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

    Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe
    So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
    If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

    Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    kinabalu said:



    I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.

    If we get to the point of R2 then I would be astounded if even remainer mp's had such contempt for voters as to include May's deal.



  • eek said:

    grr old news

    Does anyone know what mechanism he has used for this? I thought one could only use private members bills via the ballot, or get the backing of the executive.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !

    Am trying to find out if Janet Fookes voted in the 1993 Confidence Vote.

    If she did means Hoyle should vote tonight.
  • Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
    If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

    Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
    Both - a triple split.
  • I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

    Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe
    So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?
    Nope, but it is not in anything like the same category, as there are many who believed it to be an economic necessity.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    grr old news

    Does anyone know what mechanism he has used for this? I thought one could only use private members bills via the ballot, or get the backing of the executive.
    Unless you have a speaker bending things to get your items to the top of the pile...
  • Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
    If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

    Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
    I saw a comparison which showed the correlation between those advocating No Deal and those opposed to same sex marriage.

    The split is much deeper than on the EU.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Sean_F said:

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

    The Green-Left need to wake up and see the damage being done by the CAP and CFP.

    I don't just want us to escape from the EU, I want all of the citizens of Europe to escape its undemocratic capitalist clutches.

    Varoufakis believes we could reinvent it from within. While I agree with most of what he says, on this I don't.I believe we need to destroy the edifice and replace it with something that works for the people.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !

    Am trying to find out if Janet Fookes voted in the 1993 Confidence Vote.

    If she did means Hoyle should vote tonight.
    It is ridiculously hard to find out who votes which way in these votes online.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

    The Green-Left need to wake up and see the damage being done by the CAP and CFP.

    I don't just want us to escape from the EU, I want all of the citizens of Europe to escape its undemocratic capitalist clutches.

    Varoufakis believes we could reinvent it from within. While I agree with most of what he says, on this I don't.I believe we need to destroy the edifice and replace it with something that works for the people.
    In fact, I think there are several pro-Brexit left-wingers who post here.

    Survation regularly show 30-35% of Labour voters favour Brexit, YouGov have it at 20-25%. Which do you think is closest?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.

    And unblocking it would just release a ton of shit.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Anazina said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

    I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

    That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.
    Why? They should not attend the debate and should abstain on the grounds that Corbyn is playing games and wasting precious parliamentary time.
    Rebecca Long Odds Bailey (h/t Pulpstar) was on the telly only the other day saying she wouldn't favour voncs when the Opposition stood precious little chance of winning them.

    Hence the question why we have wasted yet another day with this evening's meaningless charade.
    There are 3 working days between yesterday's defeat and May having to say what she plans to do next. Using today as a VONC doesn't impact anything as May does not need to present her proposal until Monday.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

    Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe
    So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?
    Nope, but it is not in anything like the same category, as there are many who believed it to be an economic necessity.
    You truly believe that? It was all just a scam to stiff the little guy while simultaneously featherbedding the fat cats.

    Time after time they are able to take enough people for mugs to get away with it.
  • It is hard to believe my former colleagues thought I had an obsession with (political) betting.

    I mean I haven't spent most of today scouring the internet to see if Deputy Speakers vote in confidence votes so I can win a bet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.

    Hardly. U-bends are useful.
  • Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    The Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who delayed her caesarean section so that she could vote in last night’s division, and who had to be taken through the lobby in a wheelchair, will be “nodded through” tonight.

    Dunno why she couldn't have chosen that method yesterday, sheer grandstanding I guess.

    I know that.
    You know that.
    The only person who didn't seem to know that was Jez.
    I see no reason why he wouldn't. But it makes for a better story.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.

    I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...
    Well I hope they don't lol
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !

    Am trying to find out if Janet Fookes voted in the 1993 Confidence Vote.

    If she did means Hoyle should vote tonight.
    It is ridiculously hard to find out who votes which way in these votes online.
    Why not ask a Deputy Speaker?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

    The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

    The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

    The Green-Left need to wake up and see the damage being done by the CAP and CFP.

    I don't just want us to escape from the EU, I want all of the citizens of Europe to escape its undemocratic capitalist clutches.

    Varoufakis believes we could reinvent it from within. While I agree with most of what he says, on this I don't.I believe we need to destroy the edifice and replace it with something that works for the people.
    In fact, I think there are several pro-Brexit left-wingers who post here.

    Survation regularly show 30-35% of Labour voters favour Brexit, YouGov have it at 20-25%. Which do you think is closest?
    I would go with the higher figure among Labour voters - especially if some Remainers have flaked off to the LibDems in recent weeks.

    Among the membership I am the one in ten (at best).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    "SNP denies reports it will not back repeated motions of no confidence"

    So fake news?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.

    I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...
    Well I hope they don't lol
    I'm in the same boat as you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited January 2019

    May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

    Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

    The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

    a) Remain

    b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.

    Ummm - how do I put this?

    If we leave without a deal, we don't need a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is solely designed to smooth the process of leaving. Once we have withdrawn, with or without a withdrawal agreement, we can if we and the EU agree (which is something else I think too many people are overlooking) separately negotiate a new free trade agreement.

    The problem is we cannot leave without either some of withdrawal agreement, or massive disruption, which means it is slightly unfortunate that the third rate Oedipus complex sufferers in Parliament have just rejected the withdrawal agreement.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    edited January 2019
    Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner tells Huw that the PM may win the confidence vote due to the “supply and demand” of the DUP and that Mrs May has a strategy of “winding the clock down”. God help us in the event a Corbyn Government emerges from all this.
  • Nairobi

    BBC reporting

    It is understood a member of the British SAS - who was in Kenya as part of a training team - was involved in rescuing hostages.

    The armed special forces soldier entered the hotel complex to help rescue the trapped civilians and, according to a source, fired his weapon.

    He is believed to have been working alongside members of the US Special Forces, who were already in Nairobi when the attack took place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.

    I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...
    Well I hope they don't lol
    I'm in the same boat as you.
    I'm
    -£559 320-329
    +£96 300-309
    -£40 anything else
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:

    Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes

    Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes

    Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
    If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

    Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
    Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.

    It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Paging inappropriate gavels.

    twitter.com/heartcambsnews/status/1085578358950428672?s=21

    Good to know that the great issues of our time are being tackled.
    I love the way that when anything crops up that might improve women's lives, someone on PB pops up to denounce it or trivialise it.

    DINOSAUR!!!!!!
  • ydoethur said:

    May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

    Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

    The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

    a) Remain

    b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.

    Ummm - how do I put this?

    If we leave without a deal, we don't need a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is solely designed to smooth the process of leaving. Once we have withdrawn, with or without a withdrawal agreement, we can if we and the EU agree (which is something else I think too many people are overlooking) separately negotiate a new free trade agreement.

    The problem is we cannot leave without either some of withdrawal agreement, or massive disruption, which means it is slightly unfortunate that the third rate Oedipus complex sufferers in Parliament have just rejected the withdrawal agreement.
    David, like his namesake Davis, is thick as mince.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/99971/david-davis-criticised-over-brexit-transition-period-gaffe
This discussion has been closed.