If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
To remind people what an idiot Cameron was for the way the first referendum was framed?
True, however, Boris Johnson is on the record as saying a first referendum vote to Leave could be used as a bargaining tool to get the UK a better deal. If that failed we should then just continue with our current membership arrangements. I would also add that Cameron is a retired politician where as Boris is active and after the Top job!
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.
It's flawed because Parliament isn't representative and because so many useless MPs sit with jobs for life in safe seats. Not to mention the Lords.
The time may have come for PR, but Parliament (as currently constituted, at the very least) will never back it. The two large parties won't want to give up on a majoritarian system whilst they can still benefit from it.
On the other hand... they should bear in mind that FPTP may help to keep the prospect of future instability alive. After all, if issues like Brexit are decided by referendum then the winning side requires an absolute majority. If on the other hand, an insurgent party has a bit of luck in a General Election then, under FPTP, it can win control of Parliament with a third of the popular vote.
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
If the meaningful vote had passed last night, they'd still have needed to get the legislation through without DUP support before exit day, and we'd then have been plunged into further divisive negotiations with no consensus on the negotiating position.
I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public r
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...
Norwegian Blue-Plus
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.
What on earth are you talking about? It is the withdrawal agreement not the final trading relationship.
290-299 bizarrely coming into play ! That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.
Oh they would not want to be too close to him, I am sure. But numbers are numbers. If they can keep the Tories out, or have to have some sort of agreement with the Tories who among them would do the latter?
I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.
It's flawed because Parliament isn't representative and because so many useless MPs sit with jobs for life in safe seats. Not to mention the Lords.
The time may have come for PR, but Parliament (as currently constituted, at the very least) will never back it. The two large parties won't want to give up on a majoritarian system whilst they can still benefit from it.
On the other hand... they should bear in mind that FPTP may help to keep the prospect of future instability alive. After all, if issues like Brexit are decided by referendum then the winning side requires an absolute majority. If on the other hand, an insurgent party has a bit of luck in a General Election then, under FPTP, it can win control of Parliament with a third of the popular vote.
I don't think your interpretation of FPTP is accurate or realistic. UKIP won a decent proportion of the vote in 2015 but got one seat! That seat was the product of a defection and incumbency is an asset worth a few thousand votes, which can be the difference between winning and losing. The SDP/Alliance in 1983 came within spitting distance of Labour in the popular vote but got only 10% of Labours seats. Added to the fact the Liberals were already established in many seats and there were activists spread over the UK. Any new party will be starting from scratch, they could get a reasonable proportion of the vote and No seats. FPTP is a direct obstacle to new parties and all a new party or parties will achieve is to skew seats from Labour to Tory or vice versa.
Is rushing a referendum in 8 days a good idea? Practical considerations are secondary I would imagine. Particularly given the whinges that people did not know what they were voting for last time.
I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public r
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...
Norwegian Blue-Plus
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.
What on earth are you talking about? It is the withdrawal agreement not the final trading relationship.
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
If the meaningful vote had passed last night, they'd still have needed to get the legislation through without DUP support before exit day, and we'd then have been plunged into further divisive negotiations with no consensus on the negotiating position.
It wouldn’t have been a problem getting the remaining legislation through with those numbers.
And the negotiating positions - on both sides - would have been agreed in principle via the political declaration, which i thought actually was rather fair.
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
He is doing his leadership credentials no harm
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
He is doing his leadership credentials no harm
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfied
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
I think he is probably a Marmite politician. Personally, I think he is untrustworthy, shifty and insincere.
He’s a massive contradiction... intelligent and occasionally witty but seemingly lacking charisma, massively liberal reformer on prisons but absolutely bowl-of-cold-sick to liberal educationalists. I guess those who want to like him see the good stuff, those who don’t see the bad stuff. Those of us who see more politics than most probably see both and don’t know what they think.
That said, I bet most of the people behind him were wishing TM had managed an ounce of that passion in some of her performances.
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfied
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
He is doing his leadership credentials no harm
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?
Oh, he's made mistakes. I don't know the detail of the issue you raise, so I'll just take your word for it that it was a mistake. Perhaps it's a mistake too far for you. Mistakes though are one thing, and acting dishonorably is another. I'd rather avoid having as PM anyone that has ever acted that way. I'd certainly not exclude people that have made mistakes though.
From Denmark this is all looking very crazy but the Danish papers are basically saying there's no plan B from Europe and as far as Denmark is concerned no deal is now the expected outcome.
So well done hardcore remainers/leavers - congrats on completely buggering up future relations with the EU.
On a personal level I am now getting fed up of people. including at my daughter's nursery asking me what will happen now. Danes are VERY fond of the UK and I have met nobody wanting to 'punish' the UK - they are just baffled by the refusal of MPs to sign up to the only deal that won't involve chaos.
Good barnstorming speech by Gove at the end but really this pantomime needs to end and a decision needs to be made - revoke A50 or sign up to May's deal - anything else is beyond stupid.
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.
Time to let it go.
Why? He's right and it's coming back.
It's true, and I wish it would occur, but it's dead, dismembered and its ashes sprinkled to the winds. It's time to try other things, even stupid things. But they don't even know how to begin talking about that yet.
Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
The more likely it looks like a consensus for a customs union will prevail, the more likely it is that one of the hardcore Brexiteers will throw in the towel and say we'd be better off with Remain.
Christ. I've been wibbling for weeks (or is it months?) that the only way to get a deal through parliament is to get Labour on board. Finally the government (but not the PM?) has woken up.
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfied
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.
But we do not know how the next few weeks negotiations in the HOC and in the EU will work out
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?
Not in the slightest, I think some wires have been crossed. The deal was lamentable, but still the best of the options available.
Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
The more likely it looks like a consensus for a customs union will prevail, the more likely it is that one of the hardcore Brexiteers will throw in the towel and say we'd be better off with Remain.
Most of the hardcore Brexiteers aren’t really serious about Brexit.
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfied
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.
But we do not know how the next few weeks negotiations in the HOC and in the EU will work out
That's not the same as being unable to make a guess about the likelihood of certain options. The EU totally u-turning and opening up the WA and removing elements they have insisted are key, when they seem to believe, not without reason, that we will remain rather than no deal, does not seem very likely.
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
He is doing his leadership credentials no harm
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?
Oh, he's made mistakes. I don't know the detail of the issue you raise, so I'll just take your word for it that it was a mistake. Perhaps it's a mistake too far for you. Mistakes though are one thing, and acting dishonorably is another. I'd rather avoid having as PM anyone that has ever acted that way. I'd certainly not exclude people that have made mistakes though.
He's rendered all exam grades little better than guesses, due to deliberately over-ruling expert advice on content and assessment. He has also forced syllabi that are almost unteachable on us.
And he did it so far as can be judged (and despite his many claims) not because he wanted to improve grades, but because he wanted to prove he could. I'd call that 'acting dishonourably.'
With regard to this speech - which I haven't seen - what he says has never been an issue. I've always agreed with his outline plans on administrative reform, course content and assessment patterns. But I judge people by what they do, not what they say.
On the basis of what he has done, I prefer a serial liar, racist, terrorist supporter and apologist for paedophilia to him. I think that tells you all you need to know about his electoral appeal.
If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?
Not in the slightest, I think some wires have been crossed. The deal was lamentable, but still the best of the options available.
Fair enough. I thought it was an acceptable compromise. I thought the future political declaration was genuinely fair.
Comments
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/politics/news/68437/boris-johnson-vote-leave-get-better-eu-deal-britain
Something to remember over the coming months.
A good idea would be to extend the plan to the whole house.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.
On the other hand... they should bear in mind that FPTP may help to keep the prospect of future instability alive. After all, if issues like Brexit are decided by referendum then the winning side requires an absolute majority. If on the other hand, an insurgent party has a bit of luck in a General Election then, under FPTP, it can win control of Parliament with a third of the popular vote.
In fact, a vote free of the entire fuckwitted bunch would be extremely sensible as well. Let the mice and rats decide. They could hardly do worse...
Surely this is the way forward?
What’s the point with whipping votes with the scale of recent rebellions anyway?
https://youtu.be/0xGt3QmRSZY
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1085609183339266048?s=21
I haven't seen such a waste of time since yesterday.
That would be like Theresa May grooming up Bill Cash.
Pointer to anything?
It will be a referendum between May's deal and No Deal.
Let's get on with it.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
Gove for PM.
And the negotiating positions - on both sides - would have been agreed in principle via the political declaration, which i thought actually was rather fair.
All history now, of course.
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
However, he might have been able to reach out more to the DUP and to Labour waverers.
if looks could ...
<= 299
-£32.80
300-309
£123.94
310-319
-£101.80
320-329
-£551.60
330+
-£32.80
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands
That said, I bet most of the people behind him were wishing TM had managed an ounce of that passion in some of her performances.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085608360001630209
So well done hardcore remainers/leavers - congrats on completely buggering up future relations with the EU.
On a personal level I am now getting fed up of people. including at my daughter's nursery asking me what will happen now. Danes are VERY fond of the UK and I have met nobody wanting to 'punish' the UK - they are just baffled by the refusal of MPs to sign up to the only deal that won't involve chaos.
Good barnstorming speech by Gove at the end but really this pantomime needs to end and a decision needs to be made - revoke A50 or sign up to May's deal - anything else is beyond stupid.
Watson was good.
And he did it so far as can be judged (and despite his many claims) not because he wanted to improve grades, but because he wanted to prove he could. I'd call that 'acting dishonourably.'
With regard to this speech - which I haven't seen - what he says has never been an issue. I've always agreed with his outline plans on administrative reform, course content and assessment patterns. But I judge people by what they do, not what they say.
On the basis of what he has done, I prefer a serial liar, racist, terrorist supporter and apologist for paedophilia to him. I think that tells you all you need to know about his electoral appeal.