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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today.
    He made a huge tactical mistake and he was bloody awful. She set him an elephant trap and he blindly wandered into it. His ineptitude isn't funny anymore.
    He had no choice, he had to call a vote. His partisan core doesn’t work in these situations. There are time when you don’t bang on about Tories.

    The next VONC after May climbs offf the fence is the one that actually matters. Let’s hope he can get that right. Look at Watson, do that.
    Thank you for that. It was brutal and just a few stammers short of being excellent. Having said that it also had the effect of showing just how poor Corbyn is. It's tgot to be time both she and Corbyn handed over to someone better. Coper and Hammond perhaps
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    The avocado on toast view:

    "May has survived. The establishment are so scared of an election they’d rather push the UK over a cliff."

    https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2019/01/16/may-has-survived-the-establishment-are-so-scared-of-an-election-theyd-rather-push-the-uk-over-a-cliff/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    Hermon, Woodcock and Lewis? It'd have been closer but still lost.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    Funnily enough, I no longer run with the centre-left hounds on Corbyn. I think he’s smartened up, he’s clearly a good campaigner and, while his instinct support for the underdog leads him into some very dodgy alliances, it is at least heartfelt and consistent.

    But, as a eurosceptic from the old hard left, he represents such a narrow band of public opinion that he cannot ever hope to command the support of what is a very broad church in the Labour movement.

    Nandy or Thornberry - maybe even Long-Odds Bailey! - offer much more in terms of unifying the party and its supporters.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    Why do you believe that protectionist polices that were in place thirty years ago are still in operation today?
    The EU has made major strides over the last thirty years in removing barriers to trade and simplying customs for third party countries.

    My family is steeped in manufacturing and my brother is currently a joint owner of a manufacturing business where 80% is exported all round the world, He is the person legally repsonosible for making sure their EU products are compliant and getting it wrong means he would face a 5 year jail term. He can bore the pants of you with regs and stuff and how they all come back to global standards around the world.

    He knows exactly what he needs to do in case of no deal. Set up Irish brass plate company. Lodge EU regulatory compliance docs their. Take order EU customer to Irish Sub. Fulfill direct from UK factory to customer. Customs software does all the paperwork.
    No problems.

    Good for him. He knows what to do. 'Set up Irish brass plate company'. I think you've made my point for me.
    Don't knock Irish brass plate companies Rich, we're setting one up too xD
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816

    Good result to the VONC. Corbyn shown up for what he is and no reward for Labour's shameful Brexit tactics.

    Lab/LD voted same way didnt they apart from the LD MP who has left over LDs ridiculous BREXIT stance
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    Pulpstar said:

    Don't knock Irish brass plate companies Rich, we're setting one up too xD

    Very wise!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,610

    Good piece in The Spectator about the realities of 'no deal' Brexit.

    The piece in question is here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/project-fact-how-scared-should-we-really-be-of-a-no-deal/

    It's not bad, but it's a bit journalisty. To explain

    * The first part goes thru some common (mis)conceptions, discusses them and dismisses many. Fair enough.
    * The second part discusses some predictions by others
    * The third part discusses things like known unknowns

    It made some good points: it pointed out that things may go wrong that we haven't foreseen, and it also pointed out that things have gone wrong in the past and we have coped. There's nothing wrong with that.

    But it wasn't an attempt to find out what would happen. It was looking at other people's predictions of what would happen, discussing them, then adding in some common sense observations. Which isn't the same thing: it's not investigation or deduction.

    You may recall a previous discussion, when I went through one of the Government's advisory documents and teased out what it meant. That was just one of them: from memory, there were over twenty. If he had gone thru all of those, then spoke to the various trade bodies and government ministries to look at their preparations, then I would have been impressed.

    To be fair, that's quite a bit of work. But the article did (accidentally) highlight things that are wrong with journalism today: it discussed other sources instead of investigating on the ground.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    edited January 2019
    Tom Watsons speech in all it's glory;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JokND7s-_TY

    Not bad... And at least he managed to get through it without accusing Theresa of being Peado... :D
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    The avocado on toast view:

    "May has survived. The establishment are so scared of an election they’d rather push the UK over a cliff."

    https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2019/01/16/may-has-survived-the-establishment-are-so-scared-of-an-election-theyd-rather-push-the-uk-over-a-cliff/

    Still arguing for a GE I see.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    Most enjoyable. The Labour faces around the absolute boy... Nick brown seems miles away.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    If you think businesses that trade directly with the EU, over the last two years have not spent the time to understand what they need to do to continue trading with the EU or how to change suppliers, then I think you are wrong.
    They know. How to trade with the EU as a third party is clearly defined and has been for the last 40 years.
    Your whole argument is UK business is dumb and sits their with its finders in it's ears saying "do, do, dah, dah."

    Have you ever run a small business? I have over thirty years' experience of it, and for the first ten years or so we were exporting a lot of stuff to Europe, before the Single Market was in full operation. I can tell you it was an absolute minefield; you had to set up guarantees with the bank to cover potential customs charges, the forms were impossible to understand, get one thing wrong and the consignment gets held up for weeks, etc etc.

    The idea that all affected UK businesses, as well as doing their day jobs, have been able to prepare adequately for this - even on the assumption that they believed No Deal was possible, which no-one did until a few weeks ago - is, to put it mildly, optimistic. Are there even enough customs agents in existence to handle it all nowadays?

    Completely right. The potential day to day nightmare of exporting for SMEs is hardly talked about. The paperwork and uncertainty makes me shudder.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    If Corbyn wasn't leader ?

    The motion would have been defeated but Ivan Lewis, John Woodcock and Sylvia Hermon would probably have all supported the LOTO.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    If Corbyn wasn't leader ?

    The motion would have been defeated but Ivan Lewis, John Woodcock and Sylvia Hermon would probably have all supported the LOTO.

    And perhaps the DUP, of course.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    Hermon, Woodcock and Lewis? It'd have been closer but still lost.
    Woodcock and Lewis want an early GE where they are 100% certain to lose their jobs.

    Think again Comrade
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    Leadership bid.

    Well you can please PB Tories with almost any old bollox tbf
    Give the Tories a break. They've been stuck with The Glums (May and Hammond) since Just 2016 - And tonight they've had a sniff of what life could be like with a leadership that has a bit of passion and oratory about them...
    Same is true of Labour, of course. Tom Watson is nothing special - hardly a Blair or Robin Cook - but boy did he show up Jezza.
    Jezza is hopeless at this kind of set-piece with a negative audience, especially if something vaguely statesman-like is required rather than the usual partisan stuff and examples of food banks.

    Personally, I think he is crap as an orator even with a home crowd when he is talking about their pet projects.

    But there you go.

    Doesn't seem to do him any harm with the millennial marxists.

    Whereas his failure to back a 2nd vote might.
  • Options

    I think that's fair. Major disruption is not usually embraced by businesses - either large or small.

    But it might be that we approach (or are forced to approach) the problem in a different way.

    It's not obvious to me - either short or long term - that the absence of customs agents to "handle it all" is the root problem. Perhaps - at least unilaterally - we will have to take a more liberalised approach to customs, for example.

    We can take a more liberalised approach at our end, subject to not falling foul of the WTO rules for not favouring one nation over others. The problem is more at the EU end - it's UK exporters, not importers, who are at greatest risk on that score. Similarly, we can accept EU accreditations and regulations for services we want to buy from them, but that doesn't guarantee that in 11 weeks time we can continue to sell regulated services to them if there's no deal.
    Yep, you're not wrong. The issue is probably persuading the EU SM that our stuff is still SM compliant (over the short-term...over the long-term you can move to mutual recognition, a range of certification agencies or whatever).

    This is a problem. But one that reasonable people should surely be able to solve.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    Hermon, Woodcock and Lewis? It'd have been closer but still lost.
    Woodcock and Lewis want an early GE where they are 100% certain to lose their jobs.

    Think again Comrade
    They knew the vote wouldn't pass, they'd have been safe to vote with opposition rather than abstain. They also likely still be in the party under a different leader, even with other issues they'd fight harder to stay.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,610

    my brother...knows exactly what he needs to do in case of no deal. Set up Irish brass plate company. Lodge EU regulatory compliance docs their. Take order EU customer to Irish Sub. Fulfill direct from UK factory to customer. Customs software does all the paperwork.
    No problems.

    Fair point.

    Pause.

    So...has he done it yet?

    Cause he's only got 72 days left...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    Leadership bid.

    Well you can please PB Tories with almost any old bollox tbf
    Give the Tories a break. They've been stuck with The Glums (May and Hammond) since Just 2016 - And tonight they've had a sniff of what life could be like with a leadership that has a bit of passion and oratory about them...
    Same is true of Labour, of course. Tom Watson is nothing special - hardly a Blair or Robin Cook - but boy did he show up Jezza.
    Jezza is hopeless at this kind of set-piece with a negative audience, especially if something vaguely statesman-like is required rather than the usual partisan stuff and examples of food banks.

    Personally, I think he is crap as an orator even with a home crowd when he is talking about their pet projects.

    But there you go.

    Doesn't seem to do him any harm with the millennial marxists.

    Whereas his failure to back a 2nd vote might.
    Jezza has one mode, which he has been practising for 40 years.

    He is lucky that with changing world people are looking for something different and there is a significant number of people that are receptive to what is now a fairly well honed rant at the globalist capitalist, banker run, global elite system.

    And of course he is up against the Maybot and a puppet off the Wonga ads. It can't help his nonsense look better.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    Leadership bid.

    Well you can please PB Tories with almost any old bollox tbf
    Give the Tories a break. They've been stuck with The Glums (May and Hammond) since Just 2016 - And tonight they've had a sniff of what life could be like with a leadership that has a bit of passion and oratory about them...
    Same is true of Labour, of course. Tom Watson is nothing special - hardly a Blair or Robin Cook - but boy did he show up Jezza.
    Jezza is hopeless at this kind of set-piece with a negative audience, especially if something vaguely statesman-like is required rather than the usual partisan stuff and examples of food banks.

    Personally, I think he is crap as an orator even with a home crowd when he is talking about their pet projects.

    But there you go.

    Doesn't seem to do him any harm with the millennial marxists.

    Whereas his failure to back a 2nd vote might.
    TMs oratory skills are of course legendary. 2nd only to her flexibility dance skills ability to listen and of course the strength and stability she brings. Oh and her negotiation skills and her empathy with others and her teamwork skills.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,595

    Scott_P said:
    Watching the BBC Wales News, Corbyn being solely blamed for the impasse by Alun Cairns, and the editorial stance is blaming him too.. I thought that the Conservative Party would be blamed for the fiasco that is Brexit. Somehow through utter incompetence Jeremy Corbyn has managed to pin the fiasco of No Deal onto himself and the Labour Party.
    Yes and in addition Corbyn has managed once again to split the Parliamentary Labour Party to boot. Its not that the Labour MPs criticising him want to end up leaving on WTO terms, rather they want to engage in constructive negotiations with the PM which Corbyn has ruled out.

    Anyone who wishes the EU to shift their position has to recognise that taking off the table the one outcome that the EU wants to avoid just loses the UK leverage in further negotiations. The EU sell far more to us than we do to them, and are they particularly sensitive to perishable agricultural exports which is where tariffs under WTO rules would be more significant. If the EU believed that the outcome they fear would take effect, unless they improved their offer, then they would improve their offer. If the EU considered that there was no chance of the UK leaving unilaterally under WTO terms, there is no reason for the EU to change their position.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    kle4 said:

    The avocado on toast view:

    "May has survived. The establishment are so scared of an election they’d rather push the UK over a cliff."

    https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2019/01/16/may-has-survived-the-establishment-are-so-scared-of-an-election-theyd-rather-push-the-uk-over-a-cliff/

    Still arguing for a GE I see.
    Yes, the first rule of politics is to be able to count.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    Hermon, Woodcock and Lewis? It'd have been closer but still lost.
    Woodcock and Lewis want an early GE where they are 100% certain to lose their jobs.

    Think again Comrade
    They knew the vote wouldn't pass, they'd have been safe to vote with opposition rather than abstain. They also likely still be in the party under a different leader, even with other issues they'd fight harder to stay.
    They were both being investigated as sex pests so they cut and ran instead of allowing investigations to conclude.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Is it a little funny that May is not even the PM who had the closest vote of no confidence today? Eclipsed even in that.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,610
    SunnyJim said:

    I mentioned this yesterday but at the risk of boring PB'rs...

    I work in an industry that post vote was constantly at the centre of remain claims of catastrophic failure in the event of no deal.

    Nobody I came in to contact with professionally thought for a moment this was correct and we couldn't understand how there was such a misunderstanding of the fundamentals of how our business operates.

    Now, i'm not saying that all assessments of no deal impacts are a mixture of fanciful imagination and opportunistic embellishment but in my particular experience this was most certainly the case.

    Would you like to tell me which is "your industry" please? I asked you yesterday but you didn't answer.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    my brother...knows exactly what he needs to do in case of no deal. Set up Irish brass plate company. Lodge EU regulatory compliance docs their. Take order EU customer to Irish Sub. Fulfill direct from UK factory to customer. Customs software does all the paperwork.
    No problems.

    Fair point.

    Pause.

    So...has he done it yet?

    Cause he's only got 72 days left...
    Yes I missed that out, it is all done setup and ready to swap the EU orders from being placed on the UK to being placed on the Irish sub.
    Also he mentioned in passing that there has been a boom in Service Companies in Ireland setting up offering this serivice to UK businesses if they do not want to do the work themselves. They are offering for a fee to handle all the regulatory issues of dealing with the EU as a third country to UK businesses.

    Thankfully there are lots of positive business people around who can see an opportunity to make money, as opposed to just moaning.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    Goodnight all. Let's see what plan B is and if MPs take back control on Monday
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think Jezza should go to No 10 Just for the photo shot.

    As for humouring no deal.

    Not so much

    Are the rumours true that Corbyn was upset at being eclipsed by Tom Watson?
    I voted for both.
    Blimey. Watson made Corbyn look a bit rubbish today. The chosen one seems to think he can take off his glasses and shout his way into govt.
    Didn't see it but if you want to bash Jezza tonight that's up to you.

    Me I am more surprised Woodcock abstained.
    Jezza needs to up his game. Does he want to limit himself to ranty shouty impotence or actually achieve something? It’s a genuine question. He could become PM, but I am not sure he wants to.

    If it’s the former he needs to get out of the way and let someone lead Labour to victory asap. If it’s the latter he needs to stop being quite so partisan, it pisses people off, people he needs to feel able to vote for him or abstain. Wake up Jezza.

    Yes we need David Milliband or Liz Kendall really

    It's such a pity.
    Nah, we need the old fella to step up or step aside.
    You are entitled to your opinion Comrade.

    I am happy with the bloke who delivered the biggest increase in Lab. vote since WW2 in 2017 despite the rather unhelpful interventions from some in the party.


    We have a great chance of being the next Government IMO if we remain united.
    I am happy with someone who wins, not someone who come second whether that be general elections or confidence votes. Step up old fella. This is too serious.
    You think a better speech by Corbyn might have won the VONC. Who do you think might have changed their vote?
    Hermon, Woodcock l lost.
    Woodcock and Lewis want an early GE where they are 100% certain to lose their jobs.

    Think again Comrade
    They knew the vote wouldn't pass, they'd have been ght harder to stay.
    They were both being investigated as sex pests so they cut and ran instead of allowing investigations to conclude.
    As I noted they'd have been much more likely to stay and fight if they didn't already have one foot out the door. Depending on what those investigations turned up who knows if they'd have been allowed to stay.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    .
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Jonathan said:
    Yes - he says our pound of flesh is French fisherman. He forgets that no deal arrangements already agreed on flights and freight for no deal (fake news) .

    He does speak some sense on referendums, but the main issue I have seen repeatedly from Leavers and DUP is the backstop in the WA. Now that is not a European issue, that is an Ireland issue. If we can have ANPR systems for car parks and congestion zones surely we can have similar.

    Following article outlines many current technical solutions

    https://www.rte.ie/eile/brainstorm/2019/0114/1023053-is-it-time-for-an-electronic-backstop-for-our-only-land-border/

    My main issue with the entire Brexit process is that Centrist politicians who would normally be the ones suggesting pragmatic solutions to the issue generally seem to have voted Remain and their answer to how to implement Brexit is to Remain because it is better than leaving. They are so prejudiced against the outcome that they are not willing to engage and develop a pragmatic system to respect the referendum result.

    It is a damning indictment of our political system that so many of our politicians seem unwilling to contemplate enacting the instruction due to their own opinion.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Goodnight all. Let's see what plan B is and if MPs take back control on Monday

    Until MPs compromise on something taking back control means nothing.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,610

    viewcode said:

    my brother...knows exactly what he needs to do in case of no deal. Set up Irish brass plate company. Lodge EU regulatory compliance docs their. Take order EU customer to Irish Sub. Fulfill direct from UK factory to customer. Customs software does all the paperwork.
    No problems.

    Fair point.

    Pause.

    So...has he done it yet?

    Cause he's only got 72 days left...
    Yes I missed that out, it is all done setup and ready to swap the EU orders from being placed on the UK to being placed on the Irish sub.
    Unsarcastically, well done to your brother.

  • Options
    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Good result to the VONC. Corbyn shown up for what he is and no reward for Labour's shameful Brexit tactics.

    Someone’s missing the coalition. Like old times seeing Vince at no10.
    The Corbynite obsession with forcing a General Election , toy town revolutionary politics , is an obsticle to mitigating this catastrophe. Today was about rewarding or disincentivising that strategy. In the national interest ( as I see it ) today was as useful as yesterday and puncturing an authoritarian leader's bubble.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    kle4 said:

    Goodnight all. Let's see what plan B is and if MPs take back control on Monday

    Until MPs compromise on something taking back control means nothing.
    There's a majority for a customs union.
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019
    viewcode said:


    Would you like to tell me which is "your industry" please? I asked you yesterday but you didn't answer.

    I missed your question.

    Commercial aviation.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955

    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?
    Printed on a microdot, for security.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    edited January 2019

    He does speak some sense on referendums, but the main issue I have seen repeatedly from Leavers and DUP is the backstop in the WA. Now that is not a European issue, that is an Ireland issue. If we can have ANPR systems for car parks and congestion zones surely we can have similar.

    It's also a UK issue. The reality is that avoiding any change on the Irish border is a vital national interest for the UK and was explicitly promised by members of the cabinet campaigning for Leave in the 2016 referendum including the then Northern Ireland Secretary. It's contemptible for anything else even to be contemplated.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,610
    SunnyJim said:

    viewcode said:


    Would you like to tell me which is "your industry" please? I asked you yesterday but you didn't answer.

    I missed your question.

    Commercial aviation.
    Thank you.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788

    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?
    :D
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    Westminster voting intention: LAB: 39% (-) CON: 37% (-) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 7% (+1) GRN: 3% (-) via

    @ComRes

    , 14 - 15 Jan
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    my brother...knows exactly what he needs to do in case of no deal. Set up Irish brass plate company. Lodge EU regulatory compliance docs their. Take order EU customer to Irish Sub. Fulfill direct from UK factory to customer. Customs software does all the paperwork.
    No problems.

    Fair point.

    Pause.

    So...has he done it yet?

    Cause he's only got 72 days left...
    Yes I missed that out, it is all done setup and ready to swap the EU orders from being placed on the UK to being placed on the Irish sub.
    Unsarcastically, well done to your brother.

    They have two large MNC contracts worldwide and both of these insisted that they got this sorted early. Both also offered help and advice in doing it. They did the same for their whole UK supply chain.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail
    I also posted Dr Watson's speech... Don't say I'm not fair! :D
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,595

    kle4 said:

    Goodnight all. Let's see what plan B is and if MPs take back control on Monday

    Until MPs compromise on something taking back control means nothing.
    There's a majority for a customs union.
    It doesn't matter what there's a parliamentary majority for, the EU is going to offer nothing in terms of any new agreement. Accepting that May's deal is dead, the only thing the EU is going to offer now is the status quo i.e. eventually accepting the UK revoking A50 and maybe accepting a short extension to A50 to facilitate that outcome. In the endgame the EU may even hold out for an extra pound of flesh or two to offer even that.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?

    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?
    :smiley:
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019
    Roger said:


    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail

    I'm no fan of Gove, and I certainly wouldn't want him as PM, but there is no question he ripped Corbyn a new one in that speech.


  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SunnyJim said:

    viewcode said:


    Would you like to tell me which is "your industry" please? I asked you yesterday but you didn't answer.

    I missed your question.

    Commercial aviation.
    Aviation insurance here
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Anazina said:

    .

    Is that a leak of May's plan B?
    so basically, nothing has changed?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    SunnyJim said:

    Roger said:


    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail

    I'm no fan of Gove, and I certainly wouldn't want him as PM, but the is no question he ripped Corbyn a new one in that speech.


    Yes but who's his audience? Party politics is despised at the moment and anyone so out of touch with the zeitgeist should just piss off before there's a revolt. .
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    Jonathan said:
    Yes - he says our pound of flesh is French fisherman. He forgets that no deal arrangements already agreed on flights and freight for no deal (fake news) .

    He does speak some sense on referendums, but the main issue I have seen repeatedly from Leavers and DUP is the backstop in the WA. Now that is not a European issue, that is an Ireland issue. If we can have ANPR systems for car parks and congestion zones surely we can have similar.

    Following article outlines many current technical solutions

    https://www.rte.ie/eile/brainstorm/2019/0114/1023053-is-it-time-for-an-electronic-backstop-for-our-only-land-border/

    My main issue with the entire Brexit process is that Centrist politicians who would normally be the ones suggesting pragmatic solutions to the issue generally seem to have voted Remain and their answer to how to implement Brexit is to Remain because it is better than leaving. They are so prejudiced against the outcome that they are not willing to engage and develop a pragmatic system to respect the referendum result.

    It is a damning indictment of our political system that so many of our politicians seem unwilling to contemplate enacting the instruction due to their own opinion.
    The article you link is describing a hard border.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,595

    Jonathan said:

    Good result to the VONC. Corbyn shown up for what he is and no reward for Labour's shameful Brexit tactics.

    Someone’s missing the coalition. Like old times seeing Vince at no10.
    The Corbynite obsession with forcing a General Election , toy town revolutionary politics , is an obsticle to mitigating this catastrophe. Today was about rewarding or disincentivising that strategy. In the national interest ( as I see it ) today was as useful as yesterday and puncturing an authoritarian leader's bubble.
    It's not an obsession with forcing a general election because he knows it will fail. It's a tactical move of being able to offer something as a spurious distraction from being forced into backing a second referendum. To that end, now that we have had a VONC, look out for the Corbyn argument that there's no need to push a 2nd referendum because the Conservatives have been shown to be dependent on the DUP and so things are really still on a knife edge and further VONCs will be tried. Remember that Labour conference policy is to keep all options on the table including a second referendum.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Roger said:


    Yes but who's his audience? Party politics is despised at the moment and anyone so out of touch with the zeitgeist should just piss off before there's a revolt. .

    The audience?

    Labour MP's for one...who wants to be lead by someone who gets humiliated like that? Speeches like Gove's destroy the moral of opposition rank and file.

    Voting public...at the next GE there is no way will the Tories run a campaign so focussed on a single (ineffectual) figure. Conservatives will be queueing up daily to launch in to Corbyn in a way that didn't happen last time...and again, unlike last time, people will be paying a lot more attention.

  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail
    We all know how much you love Gove
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited January 2019
    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Jonathan said:
    Yes - he says our pound of flesh is French fisherman. He forgets that no deal arrangements already agreed on flights and freight for no deal (fake news) .

    He does speak some sense on referendums, but the main issue I have seen repeatedly from Leavers and DUP is the backstop in the WA. Now that is not a European issue, that is an Ireland issue. If we can have ANPR systems for car parks and congestion zones surely we can have similar.

    Following article outlines many current technical solutions

    https://www.rte.ie/eile/brainstorm/2019/0114/1023053-is-it-time-for-an-electronic-backstop-for-our-only-land-border/

    My main issue with the entire Brexit process is that Centrist politicians who would normally be the ones suggesting pragmatic solutions to the issue generally seem to have voted Remain and their answer to how to implement Brexit is to Remain because it is better than leaving. They are so prejudiced against the outcome that they are not willing to engage and develop a pragmatic system to respect the referendum result.

    It is a damning indictment of our political system that so many of our politicians seem unwilling to contemplate enacting the instruction due to their own opinion.
    The article you link is describing a hard border.
    It relates to a podcast and has various glossary descriptions but at the bottom has technological solutions for low friction high-tech border as per Sweden and Norway. Whilst not entirely frictionless for routine and regular users it will be no more disruptive than having the Severn bridge Tag
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail
    We all know how much you love Gove
    Is this the same Michael Gove who turned down the DExEU because Theresa May would not let him renegotiate her plan?
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    The only Brexit Corbyn would accept is one that he has negotiated - otherwise it will be a Tory brexit risking workers rights and job security.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    TM won’t go for second referendum it would destroy her party . I think the only way out of the impasse now is a GE . Which may mean no deal until a new leader takes over after brexit and renegotiates with Brussels
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    The biggest sign the government isn't serious about getting a deal passed is that members of the cabinet are still peddling outright fantasies as well as lying about the current deal as it stands. This is all positioning for the blame game when Brexit doesn't happen.
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.


    No way will May offer a second referendum...it would be political suicide for her.


    The Brexit train is speeding up and unless something major changes the rails the process is running on lead to No Deal. With one station before the destination...May's deal.


  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    kjohnw said:

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    TM won’t go for second referendum it would destroy her party.
    There'll always be a need for a centre-right conservative party and there's no sign of an alternative.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    The only Brexit Corbyn would accept is one that he has negotiated - otherwise it will be a Tory brexit risking workers rights and job security.
    Exactly. So that's a blind alley. The solution has to work without the support of Corbyn or the parliamentary Jezbians. At best you'll get an abstention out of him, if most of the membership disagrees with him. Luckily, doing the thing without Corbyn also makes it easier to sell to Tories.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    TM won’t go for second referendum it would destroy her party.
    There'll always be a need for a centre-right conservative party and there's no sign of an alternative.
    Second referendum is political suicide for the Tory party as sunny Jim points out. The membership overwhelmingly want to leave on WTO terms and negotiate from there . TM won’t sacrifice the activists she depends to win a GE .
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    The only Brexit Corbyn would accept is one that he has negotiated - otherwise it will be a Tory brexit risking workers rights and job security.
    Exactly. So that's a blind alley.
    It's also why Corbyn doesn't really want power before Brexit happens. He wouldn't be able to disown a Brexit with his name on it, but his party would want him to do just that.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    TM won’t go for second referendum it would destroy her party.
    There'll always be a need for a centre-right conservative party and there's no sign of an alternative.
    Second referendum is political suicide for the Tory party as sunny Jim points out. The membership overwhelmingly want to leave on WTO terms and negotiate from there . TM won’t sacrifice the activists she depends to win a GE .
    The idea TM won't disappoint her activists is belied by the deal that bears her name.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited January 2019
    kjohnw said:



    TM won’t go for second referendum it would destroy her party . I think the only way out of the impasse now is a GE . Which may mean no deal until a new leader takes over after brexit and renegotiates with Brussels

    It wouldn't destroy her party. No Deal or unilateral revocation might, but a referendum grudgingly forced on her by parliament wouldn't. If Leave wins then she's fine: The voters supported her deal, Hurray! If Remain wins then it's a defeat for her but it's a bigger defeat for her enemies, who are marginalized. And she can go back to doing Tory things like grammar schools and tax cuts.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Floater said:

    "He has sat down with terrorists... but not the PM': Fury as Jeremy Corbyn refuses to have Brexit talks with Theresa May unless she rules out a no deal"

    Daily Mail

    As someone said earlier - he only sits down with his friends.
    This is quite a big issue for Corbyn. Imagine the interview question - when you sat down with IRA did you ask them to rule out killing any more British people? When you sat down with Hamas did you get them to rule out the destruction of Israel?
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019


    It wouldn't destroy her party. No Deal or unilateral revocation might, but a referendum grudgingly forced on her by parliament wouldn't. If Leave wins then she's fine: The voters supported her deal, Hurray! If Remain wins then it's a defeat for her but it's a bigger defeat for her enemies, who are marginalized. And she can go back to doing Tory things like grammar schools and tax cuts.

    The only way the Conservatives could survive a second referendum is if May fights tooth and nail against it before agreeing to an AV that includes no deal.

    If it is just remain vs deal then it would be catastrophic for the party.

    My belief is that the best way out is calling a GE with a cast iron manifesto guarantee of her deal being implemented.

    There would be a number of current mp's who wouldn't be able to reconcile themselves to that but they would be a loss worth taking.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    SunnyJim said:

    My belief is that the best way out is calling a GE with a cast iron manifesto guarantee of her deal being implemented.

    You don't think that would be electorally problematic, given the alternatives of Remain or No Deal are so much more popular?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    SunnyJim said:


    It wouldn't destroy her party. No Deal or unilateral revocation might, but a referendum grudgingly forced on her by parliament wouldn't. If Leave wins then she's fine: The voters supported her deal, Hurray! If Remain wins then it's a defeat for her but it's a bigger defeat for her enemies, who are marginalized. And she can go back to doing Tory things like grammar schools and tax cuts.

    The only way the Conservatives could survive a second referendum is if May fights tooth and nail against it before agreeing to an AV that includes no deal.

    If it is just remain vs deal then it would be catastrophic for the party.

    My belief is that the best way out is calling a GE with a cast iron manifesto guarantee of her deal being implemented.

    There would be a number of current mp's who wouldn't be able to reconcile themselves to that but they would be a loss worth taking.

    What catastrophic thing do you think would happen specifically?
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    On topic, I don't see how anything gets enough votes except a second referendum.

    We all know perfectly well that Corbyn isn't opposing TMay's deal because of something about the content of it that can be changed, and without him there's no way through that particular alley.

    Added to TMay's loyalists there seem to be enough votes with Lab-remainiac+LD+SNP, so the only remaining blocker is TMay, whose other options are No Deal or unilateral revocation, which are far, far worse for her.

    The only Brexit Corbyn would accept is one that he has negotiated - otherwise it will be a Tory brexit risking workers rights and job security.
    Exactly. So that's a blind alley. The solution has to work without the support of Corbyn or the parliamentary Jezbians. At best you'll get an abstention out of him, if most of the membership disagrees with him. Luckily, doing the thing without Corbyn also makes it easier to sell to Tories.
    May is right not to talk to Corbyn. He has repeatedly said that the answer to Brexit is a general election. That is clearly not an answer to Brexit.
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106



    You don't think that would be electorally problematic, given the alternatives of Remain or No Deal are so much more popular?

    Conservatives: Dealers + No dealers

    Lib Dems: Remainers

    SNP: Remainers


    Labour:???????????

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    SunnyJim said:



    You don't think that would be electorally problematic, given the alternatives of Remain or No Deal are so much more popular?

    Conservatives: Dealers + No dealers

    Lib Dems: Remainers

    SNP: Remainers


    Labour:???????????

    You're saying the Tory manifesto would contain a cast-iron commitment to the deal. What's in it for No Dealers and Tory Remainers?
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    What catastrophic thing do you think would happen specifically?

    If you know a few Conservative activists have a chat with them about their feelings about a Remain vs Deal referendum.

    Offering Ref2 in that context would gut out the Conservative operation at the next GE.

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    SunnyJim said:


    What catastrophic thing do you think would happen specifically?

    If you know a few Conservative activists have a chat with them about their feelings about a Remain vs Deal referendum.

    Offering Ref2 in that context would gut out the Conservative operation at the next GE.

    The next election is 3 years and (probably) a different leader away, they'll get over it - even if Remain wins. And if Leave wins they'll completely forget about it, regardless of how upset they might be now.

    Even if none of the above was true and half the Conservative activist base went on strike, they're up against Jeremy Corbyn, which leaves a lot of leeway for a depleted ground game.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    SunnyJim said:



    You don't think that would be electorally problematic, given the alternatives of Remain or No Deal are so much more popular?

    Conservatives: Dealers + No dealers

    Lib Dems: Remainers

    SNP: Remainers


    Labour:???????????

    You're saying the Tory manifesto would contain a cast-iron commitment to the deal. What's in it for No Dealers and Tory Remainers?
    Talk about "gut out the Conservative operation"...
  • Options
    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019


    You're saying the Tory manifesto would contain a cast-iron commitment to the deal. What's in it for No Dealers and Tory Remainers?

    May's deal would be as far down the road a no dealer could get with a mainstream party...but that's with the knowledge the ratchet will only turn one way once we've left.

    Remainers would need to balance out the importance of the EU against the impact on their domestic lives of a Corbyn government.



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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    We always knew there was collusion because Trump kept saying there was NO COLLUSION.

    With a normal politician that would mean that they did something wrong, but it wasn't collusion, and they're trying to cause a distraction. But with Trump it means he sent Putin a letter inscribed in gold saying, "Thank you for a fantastic year of collusion. Let's have another year of colluding. WE ARE SO GREAT AT COLLUSION!!!"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    That much he can survive, the problem is if the Remainiacs also think he's the escape-from-brexit roadblock...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    That much he can survive, the problem is if the Remainiacs also think he's the escape-from-brexit roadblock...
    Oh, they're getting there.

    It's not taking much for them to join the dots - that he wants a No Deal Brexit, laid at the door of the Tories. But when that starts to fall apart.....which way does he go?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Good morning, everyone.

    Nothing quite like the dog barking at half past five to start one's day early.

    Mods: there's a thread up (visible on the Vanilla site, at least) with a weird Russian title.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,289
    “I did not have sexual relations with that woman...”

    “I am not a crook...”

    You can tell when some presidents are lying. With Trump, it’s when his lips move.



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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    We always knew there was collusion because Trump kept saying there was NO COLLUSION.

    With a normal politician that would mean that they did something wrong, but it wasn't collusion, and they're trying to cause a distraction. But with Trump it means he sent Putin a letter inscribed in gold saying, "Thank you for a fantastic year of collusion. Let's have another year of colluding. WE ARE SO GREAT AT COLLUSION!!!"

    We had the best collusion. Nobody does collusion as well as I do. I know more about collusion than anyone
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    That much he can survive, the problem is if the Remainiacs also think he's the escape-from-brexit roadblock...
    Oh, they're getting there.

    It's not taking much for them to join the dots - that he wants a No Deal Brexit, laid at the door of the Tories. But when that starts to fall apart.....which way does he go?
    Except that JC and TM are both in the same position: they can do exactly as they please, so long as no majority in Parliament can be assembled to change the course of the process.

    If the apparently huge majority of Parliamentary opinion that wants to avoid Hard Brexit can't agree to do anything else, then either Hard Brexit happens on schedule or they're forced to back down at the eleventh hour and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as the only means left to stop it. The PM and LOTO are both running down the clock to try to force the outcome that they want (caveat: it may transpire that Theresa May's talks represent a genuine desire to reshape Brexit, rather than the latest act in her and Corbyn's Neo-Dadaist performance art project, but I remain to be convinced.)

    In fact, whereas this is a gamble for May I don't see how Corbyn loses under such circumstances: if No Deal is the disaster that a lot of people are predicting then Corbyn succeeds both in getting rid of EU membership and making the Tories carry the can for the consequences (and he can then try to persuade the DUP to vote May out, so as not to be tarnished by association;) if May succeeds in getting the deal through then the DUP will switch sides in a VoNC and he'll probably get his General Election straight away.

    And there are now only 71 days left until March 29th...
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,903
    Excellent piece, Ms Cyclefree.
    It's pretty obvious that, as far as May is concerned, Corbyn is the sort of person a vicars daughter should have as little as possible to do with, and shouldn't even employ as a gardener! She doesn't appear happy in the company of, even on a working basis, of 'people like him' and sadly for our country, the feeling is reciprocated.

    I therefore suspect that one or other will either have to find a long spoon or drop out of the system altogether.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    edited January 2019

    Excellent piece, Ms Cyclefree.
    It's pretty obvious that, as far as May is concerned, Corbyn is the sort of person a vicars daughter should have as little as possible to do with, and shouldn't even employ as a gardener! She doesn't appear happy in the company of, even on a working basis, of 'people like him' and sadly for our country, the feeling is reciprocated.

    I therefore suspect that one or other will either have to find a long spoon or drop out of the system altogether.

    Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty:

    How many people who grow up in seven bedroom mansions, attend boarding schools, have never needed to work due to family wealth and have seven figure fortunes are employed as gardeners?

    Edit - for 'one or other,' I think you are unambitious. I want both out.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,685
    edited January 2019

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    Mrs May seems very keen to lay the blame for the Brexit fiasco on Corbyn. Keener on that than finding a solution.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,252
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's the Govester in all his glory

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCs901Cjiyk

    On your recomendation I've just wasted ten minutes listening to an irrelevant tirade which will do noting but reinforce the publics complete distain for parliament. When the public are looking for statesmen. Gove plays the smartarse. Total fail
    That’s high praise coming from you.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,903
    ydoethur said:

    Excellent piece, Ms Cyclefree.
    It's pretty obvious that, as far as May is concerned, Corbyn is the sort of person a vicars daughter should have as little as possible to do with, and shouldn't even employ as a gardener! She doesn't appear happy in the company of, even on a working basis, of 'people like him' and sadly for our country, the feeling is reciprocated.

    I therefore suspect that one or other will either have to find a long spoon or drop out of the system altogether.

    Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty:

    How many people who grow in seven bedroom mansions, attend boarding schools, have never needed to work due to family wealth and have seven figure fortunes are employed as gardeners?

    Edit - for 'one or other,' I think you are unambitious. I want both out.
    😀
    People who wish to identify, often mistakenly, with 'the people'. The Labour Party usually does better when it's closer to it's Methodist, as opposed to it's Marxist, roots.

    Old age reduces ambition. Once I wanted to see the world; now I just want to get to Wales this Summer. So, while in principle I agree with you, it's a matter of achievable objectives.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    FF43 said:

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    Mrs May seems very keen to lay the blame for the Brexit fiasco on Corbyn. Keener on that than finding a solution.
    Well, in fairness she has a pretty good solution. It's just our MPs are so thick they can't understand it and are holding on to their unattainable Precious instead.

    It will not be May's fault when we leave with no deal. It will be the fault of those who voted it down of whom the Jezaster is the most prominent. She should go, for other reasons, but Parliament itself owns this fiasco fairly and squarely.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SunnyJim said:


    I cannot speak for him obviously but I would have thought the LDems could offer to support her deal provided it is sanctioned by a 2nd Ref. Why is that so hard for the government to accept?

    I really don't see how a deal that had so few backers in parliament could realistically be put to the country.

    Who would campaign for it?

    Previous leave voters would in all likelihood boycott in their millions leaving a turnout well down on 2016 and a remain win with no legitimacy.

    It would be much better for the remainer majority in parliament to have the courage of their convictions and either go directly to revoke or, alternatively, provide a 3-way referendum under AV with: Revoke, Deal, No Deal.
    Deal or no deal is the only legitimate question to ask from a democratic perspective

    1. You decided to leave
    2. This is the best deal we can negotiate
    3. Do you want to accept it or not?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    Mrs May seems very keen to lay the blame for the Brexit fiasco on Corbyn. Keener on that than finding a solution.
    Well, in fairness she has a pretty good solution. It's just our MPs are so thick they can't understand it and are holding on to their unattainable Precious instead.

    It will not be May's fault when we leave with no deal. It will be the fault of those who voted it down of whom the Jezaster is the most prominent. She should go, for other reasons, but Parliament itself owns this fiasco fairly and squarely.
    +1

    Jezza does'nt give a feck about the Country. Jezza cares about Jezza's ideology, period.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:


    I cannot speak for him obviously but I would have thought the LDems could offer to support her deal provided it is sanctioned by a 2nd Ref. Why is that so hard for the government to accept?

    I really don't see how a deal that had so few backers in parliament could realistically be put to the country.

    Who would campaign for it?

    Previous leave voters would in all likelihood boycott in their millions leaving a turnout well down on 2016 and a remain win with no legitimacy.

    It would be much better for the remainer majority in parliament to have the courage of their convictions and either go directly to revoke or, alternatively, provide a 3-way referendum under AV with: Revoke, Deal, No Deal.
    Deal or no deal is the only legitimate question to ask from a democratic perspective

    1. You decided to leave
    2. This is the best deal we can negotiate
    3. Do you want to accept it or not?
    The idea of polling between two options when a third polls twice as well as either is a democratic monstrosity.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,903
    I've been looking at a Facebook page from a strong Leave area. There are quite a few Leave posts, and many off them seem to blame the EU for all our nation's ills. The idea of 'control from Brussels' in all aspects of life seems to have become ingrained, with the result that 'taking back control' was very powerful indeed.
    I'm wondering if, when we leave, and life does get worse, whether people who think like that will become very angry.

    That, of course, assumes that Project Fear is at least half-right.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    As I predicted a while back, the papers today going for Corbyn, painting him as the Brexit roadblock.....

    He's in some real trouble when this catches hold with the public.

    Mrs May seems very keen to lay the blame for the Brexit fiasco on Corbyn. Keener on that than finding a solution.
    Well, in fairness she has a pretty good solution. It's just our MPs are so thick they can't understand it and are holding on to their unattainable Precious instead.

    It will not be May's fault when we leave with no deal. It will be the fault of those who voted it down of whom the Jezaster is the most prominent. She should go, for other reasons, but Parliament itself owns this fiasco fairly and squarely.
    +1

    Jezza does'nt give a feck about the Country. Jezza cares about Jezza's ideology, period.
    And in unholy alliance with Rees-Mogg...

    (Not that I think Jezza is a man of principle, by the by. I think he's a shameless liar and opportunist.)

    Without wishing to sound like Justin, I think Neil Gaiman's Plan B had something to be said for it.
This discussion has been closed.